Jacob deGrom

Mets ace Jacob deGrom, who has yet to pitch this season and is on the mend from a stress reaction in his right scapula, underwent his latest follow-up MRI yesterday, the team announced. They issued the following statement in the wake of this latest test:

“He underwent follow-up imaging yesterday that revealed continued healing in the scapula. He will continue to build distance and velocity in his throwing program, and we will provide an update on his progress when appropriate.”

On the one hand, it’s somewhat encouraging that there’s been no setback and deGrom ostensibly appears to be progressing toward a return. On the other, it’s surely frustrating for all parties that there’s no clear indication as to when deGrom might get back on the mound at Citi Field. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo wrote last night, after speaking to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, that deGrom would require between three and five minor league rehab starts.

Of course, given the vague nature of the Mets’ statement, it’s not clear just when that minor league rehab work might begin. The Mets indicated that deGrom is still throwing, but the standard progression would be to go from flat ground, to mound work, to facing live hitters before jumping into a rehab game — with rest days smattered throughout that process. If deGrom is indeed slated for five rehab appearances, that could tack upwards of four weeks onto the process. Inferring a bit, it’s hard to see him back before mid-to-late June at this point, but the Mets have rather deliberately avoided making any definitive statements.

“We don’t want to mess around with reinjuring that type of situation, because then he’s done for the year,” Hefner told DiComo yesterday. “So we’re definitely going to play the long game with him to make sure that we have him for the rest of the season.”

Looking purely at the standings, no one would be able to tell that the Mets have been missing the game’s best pitcher this season. Their 23-13 record already gives them a hefty 5.5-game lead over the second-place Phillies in the National League East, to say nothing of the game’s third best winning percentage (.639, trailing only the Dodgers and Yankees). The Mets have received seven starts apiece from Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco and Tylor Megill, and that quartet has combined for an outstanding 3.22 ERA in 162 innings. Taijuan Walker (four starts) and David Peterson (three) have also been excellent in their opportunities thus far.

On the whole, Mets starters rank sixth in the Majors in ERA — even without deGrom. They’re also ranked third in FIP and fifth in SIERA, in addition to possessing the seventh-best strikeout rate and second-lowest walk rate of any team in baseball. Given the group’s collective dominance, the Mets can afford to take a more cautious approach with deGrom. That may well have been the team’s approach regardless, but an outstanding rotation and comfortable first-place lead certainly quell any temptation to push deGrom that might crop up in a more tightly contested division and/or with broad-reaching struggles from alternative rotation options.

Jacob deGrom went for a follow-up MRI on his injured shoulder yesterday, and the team provided reporters (including Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com) with an update late last night. According to the club, imaging showed “considerable healing of the stress reaction on his scapula.” Doctors have cleared deGrom to start “loading and strengthening” his shoulder, but he will not begin throwing. The team is likely to send deGrom for further imaging in around three weeks.

Certainly, it’s a positive to hear of “considerable healing.” deGrom told reporters just before Opening Day his shoulder had held up structurally, adding “once the bone heals, then we’ll be ready to go and build up from there and hopefully be healthy for the rest of the year.” That the bone has progressed in the three and a half weeks since then is a welcome development for his long-term prognosis.

That said, the announcement deGrom won’t yet start a throwing program seems to suggest he’s not especially close to returning. Both Thosar and DiComo indicate it’s unclear whether the team is ruling deGrom out from beginning a throwing program until his next imaging three weeks from now. If that proves to be the case, there’d be virtually no chance of the two-time Cy Young award winner returning at the start of June as had been hoped.

deGrom hasn’t pitched in a regular season game since July 7 of last year. He spent the second half of the season on the injured list recovering from an elbow issue. That brought an unfortunate early end to what looked as if it might be one of the most dominant performances by a pitcher in league history. deGrom returned this spring and made two starts in Grapefruit League play before feeling some shoulder soreness during a between-outings long toss session. The team sent him for an MRI, which revealed the stress reaction that has shut him down thus far.

In deGrom’s absence, the Mets opened the season with a rotation of Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Tylor Megill, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker. That’s an impressive top five even sans arguably baseball’s best arm. The top four pitchers have been excellent, with each member of that group posting an ERA and SIERA of 3.00 or lower through their first few starts.

Walker landed on the IL just two innings into his season debut because of shoulder bursitis, but he’s expected to return this weekend. Lefty David Peterson has stepped into his place and pitched very well himself. Only the Dodgers (2.09) have a better rotation ERA than the Mets’ 2.29 in the early going, a big reason New York has raced to a 13-5 start.

Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom was to undergo an MRI today, and the news isn’t positive for the former NL Cy Young Award winner.  As per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, deGrom suffered a stress reaction in his right scapula.  The Mets announced that DeGrom will be re-evaluated after being shut down for the next four weeks.

Between the shutdown, the necessary ramp-up period, and probably some natural caution given all of deGrom’s recent injuries, a 60-day IL placement seems likely.  That would put deGrom on track for a June debut in a best-case scenario, and thus it will mean that the ace will be going roughly 11 months between Major League outings.  DeGrom last pitched on July 7, 2021 before then suffering a forearm issue that wound up ending his season.

Between that forearm problem and multiple smaller injuries beforehand, deGrom pitched only 92 innings in 2021, though he was spectacular in that abbreviated campaign.  DeGrom had a 1.08 ERA, 45.1% strikeout rate, and a 3.4% walk rate, and seemed to be on pace for a season for the ages.  Despite all his missed time, deGrom’s performance still earned him a ninth-place finish in NL Cy Young voting.

If there is any silver lining to today’s news, a stress reaction is at least preferable to a more serious shoulder injury, as Passan writes that “typically, stress reactions are healed through rest.”  Retired right-hander Brandon McCarthy (who suffered the same injury early in his career) also chimed in, tweeting that the stress reaction “really isn’t a big deal.  Not as big as it seems.  [DeGrom will] be just fine.”

With deGrom out of action, the Mets’ rotation depth will be tested again.  Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, and the newly-acquired Chris Bassitt will now form the top four, and one of Tylor Megill, Trevor Williams, or David Peterson will step into that fifth starter’s role.  It could be that the Mets use more than one of those hurlers as a starter, and as always, a new acquisition can’t be ruled out given how aggressive the Mets have been this winter.  However, GM Billy Eppler told reporters (including Deesha Thosar of The New York Daily News) that deGrom’s injury doesn’t necessarily make a trade for pitching any more likely.

Beyond the short-term impact of the injury on deGrom’s status and on the Mets’ season, there is also a longer-term contractual situation looming.  DeGrom has already stated that he plans to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract following the season, though naturally this latest injury could change his thinking.  DeGrom is owed $33.5MM this season and $30.5MM in 2023, and New York has a $32.5MM club option on his services for 2024.  If deGrom returns from his injury and posts his usual numbers, he’ll still surely opt out in search of a lengthier and more lucrative deal with the Mets or another team.  Should he miss more time, however, or struggle following his return, it will create more of a decision for deGrom in choosing whether or not to test the open market.

The Mets have officially scratched ace Jacob deGrom from today’s scheduled Grapefruit League appearance, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. He’ll instead undergo an MRI after experiencing tightness in his right shoulder while playing catch yesterday. While there’s no indication yet that deGrom is dealing with a major injury or expected to miss significant time, the mere fact that he’s been scratched in favor of imaging is an obvious source of concern.

Expected to pair with newly signed Max Scherzer to form one of the great one-two punches, the 33-year-old deGrom has already cemented himself as one of the most talented pitchers of this generation. If he does miss time with this shoulder ailment, however, it’ll mark a second straight season with an absence due to arm-related injuries.

In 2021, deGrom appeared well on his way to a third Cy Young in four years, pitching to an inhuman 1.08 ERA with a 45.1% strikeout rate against just a 3.4% walk rate through his first 92 innings. He hit the injured list with a forearm strain in early July, however. The injury wasn’t initially believed to be season-ending in nature, but after a series of setbacks and delays in his rehab work, the Mets eventually shut deGrom down for the season in late September.

For the time being, the Mets will send non-roster righty Felix Pena to the hill to make today’s spring start. Manager Buck Showalter is currently speaking with reporters on the matter and indicated that deGrom’s MRI will be conducted around 9:30am ET (Twitter link via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). No determination on deGrom’s availability for Opening Day will be made until that imaging is performed. DeGrom felt the tightness in his shoulder on the final few throws of a long-toss session yesterday, Showalter added.

The Mets are relying on deGrom, Scherzer, trade acquisition Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco to handle the bulk of rotation work this season, though they have several solid depth options beyond that quintet. Tylor Megill, David Peterson and Jordan Yamamoto are all on the 40-man roster already, while veteran southpaw Mike Montgomery gives them another experienced option who’s in camp as a non-roster invitee.