Jacob deGrom

AL West Notes: Athletics, Bleday, Munoz, Trammell, deGrom, Eovaldi, Schroeder

By Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2023 at 10:05pm CDT

The Athletics announced several cuts to their Spring Training roster today, and outfielder JJ Bleday was one of the players optioned to Triple-A. Bleday had been competing with Cristian Pache and Esteury Ruiz for the center field job, and manager Mark Kotsay told reporters (including The San Francisco Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara) that “it’s not an easy decision” in picking between the trio since the A’s eventually want to see what all of them can do at the big league level. All of Pache, Ruiz, and Bleday will “impact this club at some point” in 2023, Kotsay said, but in determining the Opening Day roster “there’s going to be factors that go into it…not just performance but roster construction, depth at the position.”

Kotsay also noted that Pache might have an advantage since he is out of minor league options, whereas Ruiz and Bleday both have options remaining. Bleday and Ruiz each joined the A’s this offseason, as Bleday was acquired from the Marlins for A.J. Puk last month, and Ruiz came to Oakland as part of the big three-team, nine-player swap with the Brewers and Braves that saw Sean Murphy land in Atlanta. Pache, meanwhile, was part of last March’s blockbuster deal with Atlanta, as Pache was one of four players the A’s acquired in exchange for Matt Olson. Earlier this month, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about the many outfielders vying for playing time for Oakland this season, beyond just the center field situation.

Rangers Notes: deGrom, Center Field, Carter

By Steve Adams | March 9, 2023 at 4:45pm CDT

New Rangers ace Jacob deGrom threw 35 pitches while facing several of his teammates in a simulated game setting yesterday, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The two-time Cy Young winner sat 98-99 mph with his heater and reached triple digits on his final pitch of the day. It’s possible that’ll be the only tune-up he needs before stepping into a Cactus League game sometime next week. Whether that’s the next step or whether deGrom needs to face live hitters once more, it’s good news that the righty came away from the session without incident. Rangers fans were holding their breath when deGrom had some tightness in his side and had his throwing program slowed early in camp, but it seems he’s now progressing without restrictions.

Signed to a five-year, $185MM contract over the winter, deGrom has pitched just 156 1/3 innings over the past two seasons due to a forearm injury and a stress reaction in his right shoulder blade.

A bit more on the Rangers…

Texas still isn’t sure whether center fielder Leody Taveras will be ready to start the season, as he was been diagnosed with a low-grade oblique strain earlier in the week and won’t even attempt to resume baseball activities until next week, at the earliest. If Taveras is to open the season on the shelf, there are three fairly clear alternate plans in center field: give fleet-footed Bubba Thompson the bulk of the workload while Taveras mends, move Adolis Garcia over from right field, or select the contract of a non-roster player like Travis Jankowski to begin the season (which would require a corresponding 40-man move). Of the bunch, MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry writes that GM Chris Young implied Thompson is the likeliest short-term solution, noting that he’s “ready for the challenge” even if his offensive approach still needs further refinement. It’s a different tone than he struck with regard to the possibility of moving Garcia, on which he stated: “…we’ll have to work through how much it makes sense to move Adolis over at all.”
One player who’s not under consideration for an Opening Day roster spot at this time, unsurprisingly, is 20-year-old top prospect Evan Carter, manager Bruce Bochy confirmed to Levi Weaver of The Athletic (Twitter link). The 2020 second-rounder erupted with a combined .295/.397/.489 batting line between High-A and six games at Double-A last year, vaulting himself onto to top prospect rankings at Baseball America (No. 25), MLB.com (No. 41) and Baseball Prospectus (No. 22). However, advanced as Carter’s approach at the plate is — he walked in 13.5% of his plate appearances last year despite facing far older and more experienced competition — Bochy indicated that a leap right to the Majors “would be pushing a kid too much.” Carter has all of 28 plate appearances above A-ball and isn’t on the 40-man roster, so he never seemed a particularly likely option, but it’s still of some note that Bochy confirmed as much. It still stands to reason that if Carter opens the year in Double-A, he could play his way into consideration for a call to the big leagues later in the 2023 campaign.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Slater, Groshans, Cabrera

By Simon Hampton | March 4, 2023 at 10:22pm CDT

The start of spring training always brings plenty of reports of players experiencing ’tightness’ or ’discomfort’, and while many of those wind up being rather minor, the Rangers in particular are dealing with plenty of seemingly minor ailments this spring, as Levi Weaver of The Athletic reports.

Star winter signing Jacob deGrom was experiencing left-side tightness early in camp, but is scheduled to now throw his first live bullpen session on Wednesday, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Fellow off-season recruit Nathan Eovaldi is also experiencing some left-side tightness, and is taking a few days off. Jon Gray was a late scratch from Friday’s spring game with back tightness, while Jake Odorizzi is dealing with arm fatigue and is a bit behind in his schedule. It doesn’t stop there, as Jose LeClerc and Owen White are both feeling neck tightness.

There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of concern within the Rangers, and instead it seems the team is just being extra cautious so early in the spring. “When we started spring, in addressing the pitchers especially, we said, ‘Hey, in the early part here, let us know. Anything going on, we don’t want any major setbacks. We can back off at this time.’ Spring training can be pretty long, so in the early part, you’re going to be a little bit more cautious,” manager Bruce Bochy said Friday.

Here’s some more bits and pieces from around baseball:

Austin Slater had an MRI on his elbow but it came back clear, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Giants announced during the week that Slater would rest for a week with elbow neuritis. The news that the MRI is clear is certainly a positive one for Slater, and it seems it won’t be long before he’s able to make his spring debut for the team. Slater hit .242/.337/.392 with seven home runs across 259 plate appearances for San Francisco last season, and looks set to serve as a bench bat for the Giants with Joc Pederson, Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski to get the bulk of the outfield reps.
The Marlins are giving youngster Jordan Groshans time at first base this spring, as Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports. Groshans typically handled the other infield spots coming up through the minors, and spent just 40 previous innings at first. Groshans is on the fringes of cracking Miami’s opening day roster, but if he can show he can handle first adequately it would certainly provide a boost to his chances. A first round pick by the Blue Jays in 2018, Groshans came over to the Marlins in the Anthony Bass deal last year. He got a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues, hitting .262/.308/.311 across 65 plate appearances. With Garrett Cooper, Joey Wendle, Luis Arraez and Jean Segura fairly well locked in as Miami’s infield starters, there’s no obvious path to a starting job there but the Marlins bench is a lot less certain, providing Groshans with a solid chance to stick on the active roster to begin the season.
Speaking of positional changes, the Yankees are planning to give Oswaldo Cabrera some time in center field this spring, Aaron Boone told the YES Network’s broadcast during today’s game against the Rays. Cabrera impressed during his rookie year, posting a respectable .247/.312/.429 line with six home runs across 171 plate appearances. Yet it was his defense that really stood out, as Cabrera, an infielder for almost all of his career, took to the outfield extremely well, earning nine Defensive Runs Saved for his work on the grass. That’s put him firmly in the race with Aaron Hicks, Estevan Florial and Rafael Ortega to be the Yankees’ opening day left fielder. It does seem more likely he winds up in a utility role though, covering the infield, corner outfield spots, and now, perhaps, center field.

AL West Notes: Maldonado, deGrom, Bleday

By Mark Polishuk | February 18, 2023 at 9:24pm CDT

Martin Maldonado played through a sports hernia and a broken hand for the latter part of the 2022 season, toughing it out to remain on the field and help the Astros win a championship. As a result, Maldonado admitted that he “felt a little sad” that the Astros looked at Willson Contreras and other available catchers this offseason. “We just won the World Series and I felt like I sacrificed my whole body playing through injuries for the team….But I understand the business,” Maldonado told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters. “I know as an owner, as a front office, they’re going to try to always get the best position players available and help the team get better. Willson was the best free-agent catcher out there.”

Maldonado has rarely hit much over his 12 MLB seasons, but he is beloved within the Astros clubhouse for his defense and ability to work with pitchers. A new addition doesn’t appear to be coming for now, leaving Maldonado atop Houston’s depth chart and youngsters Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz competing for the backup catching job. Maldonado’s health situation certainly spurred the Astros’ acquisition of Christian Vazquez at the trade deadline, but if Houston has any lingering feelings that an upgrade is necessary behind the plate, they’re certainly still a team to watch on the trade market throughout the season.

Free Agent Notes: deGrom, Braves, Taillon, Anderson, Gibson

By Mark Polishuk | December 4, 2022 at 11:26pm CDT

The five-year, $185MM deal between Jacob deGrom and the Rangers came together pretty quickly, and deGrom didn’t give the Mets a chance to counter the offer, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes. This isn’t to say that the Mets would have countered, as they “had no intention of offering anything close to where the winning bid landed.” While the Mets had some sense in November that deGrom might prefer to remain in New York if his offers were all in the same price range, Olney writes that some in the organization felt deGrom was starting to gradually distance himself from the Mets as the season went on.

There was also some mutual interest between deGrom and the Braves, relating back to an October report suggesting deGrom would ideally like to pitch closer to his home in Florida. According to Olney, the Braves were recently looking into deGrom, but his desired price tag was too high for the team.

Here’s some more buzz from around the free agent market, on players both already signed and still available…

The Mets “made a serious run…hoping to close a deal” with Jameson Taillon last week, according to SNY’s Andy Martino. New York was known to have interest in Taillon, and this increased push seemingly indicates that he is pretty high on the team’s list of targets. That said, Martino thinks “it’s easy to see another team offering more than the Mets” for Taillon, as Justin Verlander is the Amazins’ top target and Carlos Rodon may be the backup plan. Past reports indicate that the Mets are looking to acquire an ace (i.e. Verlander or Rodon) and then another starter from the next tier of the free agent pitching market, which includes Taillon and several other arms.
The Mariners had interest in trading for Brian Anderson during the 2021 season, The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish reports, but the Marlins wanted too much in return. With Anderson now a free agent, Divish wonders if Seattle might again look to add the third baseman/outfielder, who brings some multi-positional ability and perhaps some bounce-back potential. Anderson has hit only .233/.322/.359 over 647 plate appearances and 165 games since the start of the 2021 season, with injuries limiting his playing time. Miami opted to non-tender Anderson last month, rather than pay him a projected $5.2MM in arbitration salary.
Kyle Gibson agreed to a one-year deal with the Orioles, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Gibson turned down a similar offer from an unknown team. Baltimore’s offer was preferable to Gibson because of the Orioles’ strong infield defense, the more pitcher-friendly left-field dimensions at Camden Yards, and the chance to work with catcher Adley Rutschman.

Rangers Sign Jacob deGrom To Five-Year Contract

By Anthony Franco | December 3, 2022 at 7:24pm CDT

The Rangers have made their huge rotation splash, announcing agreement with Jacob deGrom on a five-year contract. It’s a reported $185MM guarantee, and the deal also includes a full no-trade clause. The VC Sports Group client will make $30MM next season, followed by successive $40MM salaries in 2024-25, $38MM in 2026 and $37MM in 2027.

The contract also contains a conditional option for the 2028 campaign, with salaries dependent on the health of deGrom’s arm over the first four seasons. If the hurler undergoes Tommy John surgery or suffers any elbow or shoulder injury that leads to a 130-day injured list stint within a season or a full calendar year absence over multiple campaigns, a club option would kick in. That’d be valued at $20MM, but it’d jump to $30MM if deGrom posts a top-five Cy Young finish at any point during the deal or tallied a cumulative 625 innings over the next five seasons. It’d go to $37MM if he pitches 725-plus frames or secures three top-five Cy Young finishes.

If deGrom doesn’t suffer the kind of injury that’d trigger the conditional provision, he could vest the 2028 option at $37MM by pitching 160+ innings in ’27 and securing a top-five Cy Young finish. In that case, he’d only need to pass a postseason physical to max out the contract at $222MM over six seasons.

“We are thrilled that Jacob deGrom has decided to become a Texas Ranger,” general manager Chris Young said in the press release. “Over a number of seasons, Jacob has been a standout Major League pitcher, and he gives us a dominant performer at the top of our rotation. One of our primary goals this off-season is to strengthen our starting pitching, and we are adding one of the best.”

It’s the biggest move of the offseason to date and the latest massive free agent strike out of Arlington. The Rangers committed more than a half-billion dollars to the trio of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray last winter. That was designed to lay the foundation for a full-fledged return to contention in 2023. The Rangers didn’t see their desired steps forward from a win-loss perspective in 2022, largely because of a lackluster rotation behind Gray and Martín Pérez. Texas has suggested they were prepared to attack the top of the market to fortify the biggest weak point on the roster. They’ve done so with a shocking five-year deal for arguably the sport’s best pitcher.

deGrom is one of the most accomplished arms of his generation. While he fell to the ninth round of the 2010 draft and didn’t reach the majors until just shy of his 26th birthday in 2014, he immediately cemented himself as one of the game’s top pitchers. deGrom worked to a 2.69 ERA in his first 22 starts to secure the NL Rookie of the Year award and kick off a career as one of the league’s top hurlers.

The righty posted an ERA between 2.54 and 3.53 in each of the next three seasons, twice receiving down-ballot Cy Young support. Already a borderline ace, he took his game to new heights in 2018. deGrom twirled 217 innings with an MLB-best 1.70 ERA to secure his first Cy Young. The Mets inked him to a $120.5MM extension after that season. He followed up by repeating as the Senior Circuit’s best pitcher, claiming a second Cy Young with a 2.43 mark over 204 innings. He had another dominant season in the abbreviated 2020 campaign, and got off to one of the greatest first halves in history in ’21.

Through his first 15 starts that year, the four-time All-Star posted a microscopic 1.08 ERA while striking out an incredible 45.1% of opposing hitters. He was nagged by some minor health issues throughout the first few months, and that culminated in an injured list stint for forearm tightness right around the All-Star Break. While that wasn’t initially expected to lead to an extended absence, deGrom would wind up missing the remainder of the season. That September, New York president Sandy Alderson said deGrom had been dealing with a low-grade tear in his UCL, an eyebrow-raising assertion considering the right-hander had undergone Tommy John surgery before making his MLB debut. The pitcher refuted that, calling his ligament “perfectly fine.”

After a full offseason, deGrom was expected to return in 2022. Late in Spring Training, he felt some soreness during a between-starts throwing program. He was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his scapula and shut back down, and the injury wound up costing him the first four months of this past season. By the time he returned to the mound in early August, more than a full calendar year had gone by.

With that kind of layoff, one might’ve expected deGrom to show some signs of rust. Instead, he returned as his peak self, immediately dominating opponents yet again. The Stetson product averaged an absurd 98.9 MPH on his fastball and 92.6 MPH on the cutter/slider that serves as his go-to secondary offering. He struck out 42.7% of opponents against a minuscule 3.3% walk percentage. Opposing hitters swung and missed at 21.1% of his total pitches; no other starting pitcher with 50+ innings had a swinging strike rate above 17%. He struck out eight over six innings during his lone playoff start against San Diego.

A three-homer outing in Atlanta to end his season kicked deGrom’s ERA up to 3.08 in his abbreviated season, but there’s little doubt he’s still capable of performing at his top level if healthy. No pitcher on the planet is as dominant as deGrom on a per-start basis. He predictably opted out of the final $32.5MM on his deal with the Mets at the end of the season.

High-upside as this signing can be for the Rangers, there’s certainly plenty of risk in this kind of commitment to a pitcher who lost significant chunks of the past two seasons with arm issues. He’s worked just 162 1/3 innings (including playoffs) since the start of 2021. While deGrom had no control of the prorated season in 2020, he’ll still be expected to shoulder a full rotation workload despite having tossed just 224 1/3 cumulative innings over the last three years.

deGrom turns 35 years old in June. There’s no indication he’s on the verge of any performance regression. Texas’ commitment runs through his age-39 campaign, and there’s the potential for the deal to go sideways if his form tails off later into his 30’s. Now-former teammate Max Scherzer and fellow top free agent Justin Verlander have shown it’s not of the question for a pitcher to remain at peak form as he approaches 40. Neither Scherzer nor Verlander had dealt with the kind of injuries in their mid-30’s that have plagued deGrom, though.

The $185MM guarantee significantly tops MLBTR’s three-year, $135MM prediction at the start of the offseason. It’s the sixth-largest deal for a free agent pitcher in MLB history, trailing those of Gerrit Cole ($324MM), Stephen Strasburg ($245MM), David Price ($217MM), Scherzer ($210MM with the Nationals) and Zack Greinke ($206.5MM). The deal contains a $37MM average annual value that ranks second among any deal in big league history. Only Scherzer’s three-year pact with the Mets — which came out to $43.333MM per season — is higher.

Next year’s $30MM salary will bring Texas’ projected 2023 payroll commitments to around $170MM. That’d be a franchise-record tally for the Rangers, but there’s no indication the organization is planning to curtail spending any time soon. Owner Ray Davis and Young have each indicated there’s room for the club to be active on the open market, and there’s still plenty of work to be done in turning their 68-win roster into a contender in a difficult AL West. Young and skipper Bruce Bochy are each headed into their first full season at the helm, and they’ll expect to break a six-year playoff drought.

deGrom goes to the top of a rotation that brings back Gray and Pérez, who accepted a qualifying offer. The Rangers acquired Jake Odorizzi from the Braves at the start of the offseason, and Dane Dunning is a decent back-of-the-rotation arm. That’s a viable starting five, but the team’s rotation depth is still lacking and they could add another arm from outside the organization. The infield and catcher are in strong shape. Adolis García is the only outfielder who’s guaranteed everyday reps, leaving two spots that could be addressed, and the team figures to add at least one reliever.

The contract contains a $37MM luxury tax hit. The average annual values of a team’s commitments are relevant for competitive balance tax purposes. Signing deGrom brings Texas around $192MM in estimated CBT figures, per Roster Resource, leaving them around $40MM shy of the lowest $233MM threshold.

The Mets will have to rapidly turn the page, bidding farewell to one of the best pitchers in franchise history. New York has also seen Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams hit free agency. They’re sure to add to a starting staff led by Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco. Free agency offers a pair of remaining aces in Verlander and Carlos Rodón, and the big-spending Mets have previously been tied to both pitchers. Losing deGrom only figures to increase their urgency to bring in one of those two hurlers, and they’ll need to retain or replace free agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo.

New York receives modest compensation for deGrom’s departure. The team made him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, which he rejected. As a team that paid the luxury tax in 2022, New York receives the lowest compensation: a pick after the fourth round of next year’s amateur draft. The Rangers neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing this year. They’ll therefore surrender their second-highest pick in next year’s draft and forfeit $500K in international signing bonus space. Should they sign another qualified free agent this offseason — both Seager and Semien had turned down a QO last winter — they’d be stripped of their third-highest selection.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report deGrom received a $185MM guarantee, and that the deal contained a conditional sixth-year option that could push its value to $222MM. Levi Weaver of the Athletic reported the yearly salary terms. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the details of the 2028 option.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rays Have Been In Contact With Jacob deGrom

By Anthony Franco | November 29, 2022 at 10:32pm CDT

The Rays are among the teams that have reached out to the representatives for Jacob deGrom, reports Andy Martino of SNY. They join the Rangers, Yankees and incumbent Mets as clubs known to have some amount of interest, although there are surely a number of other teams in the bidding.

Needless to say, Tampa Bay represents a long shot in the race for any top free agent. The Rays consistently run payrolls in the bottom five to ten, and it’s impossible to envision them winning any all-out bidding war against either New York franchise or a Texas club that has rapidly pushed its payroll upwards and seems determined to land impact pitching this winter. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic unsurprisingly writes that Tampa Bay officials aren’t bullish on their chances of signing deGrom.

Still, there’s no harm for the Rays in touching base with the four-time All-Star’s camp. deGrom is a Florida native and a Stetson product, and there’s been some speculation he could welcome an opportunity to return to the Southeast. To be clear, the pitcher himself hasn’t publicly aired any geographic preferences. The Rays also offer a more clearly competitive roster than the Rangers, although it’s debatable whether they’re better positioned to contend for a World Series than the Yankees, Mets or other teams that could enter the bidding like the Dodgers and Giants.

The Rays opened the 2022 season with a payroll just south of $84MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster Resource estimates their 2023 commitments around $68MM at present, so there should be a bit of room for president of baseball operations Erik Neander and his staff to augment the roster. Adding a player like deGrom would require blowing this year’s franchise-record spending level out of the water, though, with MLBTR predicting the two-time Cy Young winner to land a record $45MM average annual value over a three-year term.

The projected $135MM guarantee would be the second-largest expenditure in franchise history, training only the $182MM extension signed by shortstop Wander Franco last offseason. That was spread over 11 years, while a deal for a 34-year-old ace would involve much higher salaries over a shorter term. Tampa Bay was reportedly willing to offer Freddie Freeman a deal in the $150MM range last winter, but even that would’ve been dispersed across six to seven seasons. Tyler Glasnow, who signed an extension in August, is slated for a $25MM guarantee in 2024 that’ll mark the largest single-season salary the team has paid.

Yankees Have Shown Preliminary Interest In DeGrom, Senga

By Steve Adams | November 21, 2022 at 9:49pm CDT

The vast majority of Yankee fans are fixated on the team’s quest to re-sign reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge, but the Yankees are also looking into potential pitching upgrades. Andy Martino of SNY reports the Yankees recently requested Jacob deGrom’s medical records, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that they’ve been in touch with NPB ace Koudai Senga’s representatives.

Neither development is indicative of an all-out pursuit, of course. The Yankees have the financial wherewithal to sign any free agent in any given offseason, so it only stands to reason they’d make sure to be keenly aware of the potential market/asking price and the current medical status of any market’s top targets. At present, there’s no indication the Yankees have actually had a formal meeting about either pitcher.

The Yankees currently project to have a five-man rotation of Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino, Frankie Montas and Domingo German, though righty Clarke Schmidt and prospects Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez could also pitch their way into the mix before long. German, 30, was solid through 15 games (14 starts) last season but was limited to 92 2/3 innings — minors and big leagues combined — while battling a shoulder impingement. Montas, acquired this summer with the expectation he’d be a key rotation piece down the stretch in ’22 and all season in ’23, struggled to a 6.35 ERA in eight starts with the Yankees. He also spent a bit more than two weeks on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation.

As things stand, the Yankees project to carry a $206MM bottom-line payroll, per Roster Resource, although their luxury-tax bill is already north of $222MM. Judge alone could push the Yankees into the second tier of luxury penalization, and both Senga and (especially) deGrom would come with notable average annual values, further ballooning the team’s luxury bill. Signing both Judge and deGrom seems like an extreme long shot, but speaking purely theoretically, that duo alone would likely push the Yankees into the newly created fourth tier of the luxury bracket.

As with the early stages of any offseason, a lot of this groundwork amounts to little more than due diligence. Requesting deGrom’s medicals does not serve as a clear portent for concurrent, all-out pursuits of the two-time Cy Young winner and the current AL MVP. The Yankees have already made an updated offer to Judge, GM Brian Cashman indicated last week, and both Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner have voiced on multiple occasions that Judge is the team’s top priority. However, no front office would simply presume a free agent is a lock to remain in place, and no team wants to be blindsided and unprepared in the event their homegrown star departs. The Yankees are no different and are surely gauging the entire market accordingly.

As far as the luxury tax is concerned, it bears mentioning, too, that if the Yankees do add a notable starter — whether as one of several additions or as their primary offseason pickup — doing so could enable Cashman and his staff to deal from the current group of in-house candidates. Montas and German, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz at respective salaries of $7.7MM and $2.6MM, could be shipped elsewhere and slightly alter the financial outlook, speculatively speaking.

Both deGrom and Senga are among the most coveted pitchers on the market, though both come with red flags. Though he’s a two-time Cy Young winner and arguably the best pitcher on the planet when healthy, deGrom has missed considerable time in each of the past two seasons. Senga, of course, is still entirely untested against MLB opponents — dominant as his numbers in Japan may be. To this point, the Rangers and Mets have been the teams most prominently linked to deGrom. Senga, meanwhile, is hoping to pitch for a win-now club in a big market, agent Joel Wolfe recently said in an interview with NBC Sports’ Gordon Wittenmyer. In addition to the Yankees, he’s been tied to the Giants, Mets, Padres, Red Sox, Cubs and Rangers. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported over the weekend that Senga recently visited Texas brass.

Mets Believe Jacob deGrom Wants To Stay

By Simon Hampton | November 19, 2022 at 8:19pm CDT

Jacob deGrom is expected to have many suitors this winter, but according to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the veteran right-hander prefers to stay in Queens. While any deal would require a significant investment, Puma writes that provided there’s not a major discrepancy between offers, deGrom would rather re-sign in New York.

deGrom opted out of his contract at the end of the season, and his free agency will be a fascinating one. The 34-year-old is unquestionably one of the most talented pitchers in the game and deserves to be paid accordingly, but his age and injury history will make teams leery of a long term commitment. According to Puma, the Mets are steering clear of a four or five year commitment, instead preferring to give deGrom a shorter contract that could include option years based on the pitcher meeting certain incentives.

The long term concerns over deGrom are justified, he didn’t pitch at all between July 7, 2021 and August 2, 2022 due to multiple injury problems. Upon returning, he was his usual dominant self, striking out a staggering 42.7% of batters against a 3.4% walk rate on the way to a 3.08 ERA over 11 starts. In fact, whenever healthy he’s been an unbelievably dominant pitcher, pitching to a career 2.59 ERA over 209 starts.

It’s a huge risk/reward free agency given the enormous AAV deGrom will command, but a host of big-market contending clubs will be interested. Puma notes that deGrom places a high value on winning, and believes the Mets are in a position to contend for World Series titles regularly, aiding their case. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $135MM deal for deGrom, which would give him a record AAV of $45MM, just eclipsing the $43.33MM AAV Max Scherzer got from the Mets a year ago.

That sort of commitment would take the Mets’ payroll close to the estimated $282MM mark from this season (per RosterResource), and with other holes in their rotation and bullpen particularly it seems likely their payroll will push closer to $300MM in 2023. The Mets currently have Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill pencilled in as rotation options, so they’ll almost certainly be in the market for multiple starters this winter, even after a possible deGrom signing.

Braves Unlikely To Pursue Big Name Shortstops If Swanson Signs Elsewhere

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2022 at 2:58pm CDT

The Braves have had more success in extending young, core players than any team in recent memory, but for a second straight offseason they’re facing the potential departure of a longtime regular who’s helped to anchor the infield. Dansby Swanson, like Freddie Freeman before him, reached the open market without signing an extension, has rejected a qualifying offer and is now free to field interest from the game’s other 29 teams.

Atlanta reportedly offered Swanson an extension in the neighborhood of $100MM at some point over the course of the season, but the widespread expectation is for him to outpace that guarantee by a comfortable margin. (MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $154MM contract on last week’s Top 50 free agent list.) One of the biggest questions on the minds of Braves fans is just what the team will do at shortstop. Can Swanson be retained? And, if not, where does the team turn? The market offers a trio of high-end alternatives in the form of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports, however, it’s unlikely that the Braves will make a legitimate play to sign any of the big free-agent shortstops other than Swanson. President of baseball ops Alex Anthopoulos went out of his way to mention Vaughn Grissom and Orlando Arcia as in-house alternatives at last week’s GM Meetings, and Rosenthal adds that the Braves are generally reluctant to add a major salary that “takes up too high a percentage of their payroll” — including oft-speculated fit Jacob deGrom.

Braves fans were understandably heartened by CEO Terry McGuirk’s comments about Atlanta growing to have one of the game’s five largest payrolls, but what McGuirk didn’t stress was just how close the Braves already are to reaching that territory before making a single addition. Last month at MLBTR, I pointed out that for the Braves to make even one high-priced acquisition, they’d need to exceed the luxury-tax threshold; making a pair of big-name additions — or signing one premier free agent and, say, extending Max Fried — could shatter the threshold and send the team barreling into at least the second tier of luxury penalization.

As things currently stand, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects the Braves to be less than $5MM away from tier one of the luxury tax . They’d be a first-time luxury payor, so the penalty on the first $20MM by which they cross that threshold would “only” be 20%. The penalty on the next $20MM would jump to a 32% tax.

We’ll get back to the shortstop quandary, but it’s worth digressing and taking a deeper look at just what the luxury tax realities might look like for the Braves.

To put this into more specific context, we can use deGrom as an example. Many believe that the four-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young winner could secure an average annual value of $40MM or more this winter. A $40MM AAV on deGrom would push the Braves’ luxury-tax bill up into the $268MM range — an overage of roughly $35MM. The 20% tax on that first $20MM would come out to $4MM, and the 32% tax they’d be paying on the next $15MM would be another $4.8MM. So to sign deGrom for a $40MM AAV, the Braves would effectively need to be willing to pay $48.8MM in total — at least for the upcoming season. With Justin Verlander seeking a deal comparable to that of Max Scherzer, this can all be applied to him as well.

It’s a similar, but not quite so extreme case with Swanson. Using the $22MM AAV on MLBTR’s predicted contract as an example, Swanson would push the Braves a bit more than $17MM over the luxury tax on his own. That’d make our predicted $22MM AAV more akin to paying $25.4MM this season. And, of course, signing Swanson at that rate would mean that any subsequent salary additions of note would then push the Braves into the second tier of penalization, subjecting them to the same 32% rate mentioned in the deGrom example.

The other wrinkle is that any such signing would further cause the team’s luxury bill to balloon in future seasons. The Braves already have about $135MM of luxury obligations on their 2024 payroll, two years down the road, and that doesn’t include potential club option pickups for veterans like Charlie Morton, Kirby Yates and Collin McHugh — nor does it include arbitration salaries for Fried, A.J. Minter and Kyle Wright. Paying the luxury tax for consecutive seasons would cause those rates of penalization also increase (30% in tier one, 42% in tier two, etc.).

Certainly, there are ways for the Braves to lower their current luxury tab and provide further breathing room, though the path to doing so is not an easy one. There’s little hope of finding a team willing to cover even a small portion of the $36MM still owed to Marcell Ozuna through 2024. Atlanta would probably welcome the opportunity to shed the $9MM owed to Eddie Rosario in 2023, but that’s also far easier said than done after he hit .212/.259/.328 in the first season of a two-year, $18MM contract. One recent source of Twitter speculation among fans — a possible trade of Ronald Acuna Jr. — is not something the Braves are considering, per Rosenthal.

Lengthy digression aside, let’s get back to the shortstop question. If, as Rosenthal suggests, the team is likely to be “out of the picture” for any of Correa, Turner or Bogaerts in the event of a Swanson departure, what might that mean for their 2023 outlook at shortstop?

Grissom and Arcia are in-house candidates, as alluded to by Anthopoulos, but Grissom’s bat wilted after a torrid start to his rookie season in 2022. He still finished with a terrific .291/.353/.440 batting line in 156 plate appearances, but Grissom slashed .420/.463/.660 in his first 54 plate appearances and just .220/.294/.319 over his final 102 trips to the plate. He also skipped Triple-A entirely on his way to the Majors, and scouting opinions on his long-term outlook at shortstop vary. Arcia, once one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, was a roughly league-average hitter in a part-time role last year but carries a .233/.288/.356 slash (70 wRC+) over the past five years.

The free-agent market has some modest stopgaps who could help ease Grissom into the full-time role at shortstop. Elvis Andrus was released by the A’s over the summer, but that was more about preventing his 2023 vesting option from kicking in than about his play. He had a strong finish after signing with the White Sox and hit a combined .249/.303/.404 with 17 homers and 18 steals between the two clubs. Jose Iglesias keeps hitting for average and rarely striking out — .291/.325/.408, 13.1% strikeout rate since 2019 — but defensive metrics have soured on the soon-to-be 33-year-old over the past two seasons. Old friend Andrelton Simmons is a free agent, too, but he’s batted just .216/.277/.261 in 536 plate appearances since Opening Day 2021.

None of those free-agent options are going to inspire Braves fans much — save for the possible nostalgia of a Simmons reunion — but they highlight the fact that it’s a thin crop beyond the “Big Four.” The trade market, then, could be a more palatable approach for Anthopoulos to explore. Cleveland’s Amed Rosario is a clear trade candidate with just a year to go before free agency and a mounting (by the Guardians’ standards) price tag. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9MM next year, and a low-payroll Guardians club that’s deep in MLB-ready middle infield prospects could look to cash in on the 27-year-old, as I recently explored at greater length.

The Yankees figure to be open to moving on from Isiah Kiner-Falefa now that Oswald Peraza is ready for a look in the Majors. The Reds would likely be open to dealing Kyle Farmer, with whom Anthopoulos is surely familiar dating back to his Dodgers days. Arizona’s Nick Ahmed and St. Louis’ Paul DeJong are veteran alternatives who could be had for pennies on the dollar, as the D-backs and Cardinals would surely welcome the chance to just shed some of the respective $10MM and $11MM remaining on their contracts. Both are buy-low options, at best, coming off poor showings in recent seasons. Any of Kevin Newman (Pirates), Nicky Lopez (Royals) or the oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi (Royals) could likely be had in a deal, but each has some obvious red flags.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Braves plan to simply stand pat this winter. A reunion with Swanson remains eminently plausible, even if previous extension attempts with his representatives — the same agents who represent Freeman, for what it’s worth — have yet to bear fruit. It’d push the Braves into luxury territory for the first time in franchise history, but based on McGuirk’s comments about a potential top-five payroll club, that’s something on which the front office will have a green light, at least with regard to Swanson.

What does seems far less likely is a lavish spending spree that sees the Braves make multiple marquee splashes on the free-agent market. If Swanson does sign elsewhere, it’s the bulk of the Braves’ heavy lifting may very well come via the trade market and the middle tiers of the free-agent market.

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