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Jacob deGrom

DeGrom Cleared Of Ligament Damage, Aims To Pitch Monday

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May 3: Manager Mickey Callaway announced this morning that the MRI revealed no ligament damage in deGrom’s elbow, and he’ll attempt to make his next scheduled start on Monday (Periscope link).

May 2, 8:49pm: Manager Mickey Callaway told reporters after the game that deGrom incurred the injury while swinging in his third-inning at-bat (Twitter link via Tim Britton of The Athletic). He’s undergoing an MRI to further assess the damage.

7:48pm: Mets ace Jacob deGrom left Wednesday night’s start after four innings due to injury, which the Mets’ broadcast later revealed to be a hyperextended right elbow (via Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News). Certainly, there’ll be additional testing performed to determine the extent of the injury and the length of any potential absence for deGrom, though the initial diagnosis of any elbow-related issue isn’t especially encouraging for the Mets.

With tonight’s four shutout innings, deGrom had dropped his ERA to a sensational 1.87 to go along with a 54-to-11 K/BB ratio in 43 1/3 innings of work to open the season. He hasn’t been scored on since an April 16 start against the Nationals and had rattled off a streak of 18 1/3 scoreless frames prior to tonight’s injury.

Suffice it to say, an absence of any length would be a major hit to the Mets, who opened the season in dominant fashion but have seen their grip on the NL East division lead fade to just a half-game entering play Wednesday. Should deGrom require a trip to the disabled list, which seems likely but won’t be formally announced until post-game or even tomorrow morning, the Mets would have Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Jason Vargas and Steven Matz as healthy rotation pieces.

Matt Harvey was recently moved to the ’pen and could conceivably be viewed as an option to return to the rotation, though the Mets may want to see him continue to work in shorter stints and may not want to quickly change course on such a high-profile role change for the righty. Neither Seth Lugo nor Robert Gsellman is stretched out at present, having opened the season in the bullpen, though both obviously have plenty of experience starting at the MLB level. Right-handers Chris Flexen and Corey Oswalt are the team’s top two starting options on the 40-man roster in Triple-A.

Injury Notes: Gregerson, Marlins, Mets, Pomeranz, Dickerson

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Presumptive Cardinals closer Luke Gregerson is dealing with a strained oblique, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. While such injuries can often take upwards of a month to heal, it seems that Gregerson’s could be more minor, with manager Mike Matheny referring to it only as a “little setback” that “doesn’t seem very bad.” That said, doctors haven’t placed a timeframe on Gregerson’s return to action, either. The 33-year-old Gregerson (34 in May) has pitched just once this spring, and it’s currently unclear when he’ll get back on the mound for his next appearance.

A few more health situations from around the league that are worth monitoring…

  • Marlins right-hander Brett Graves is also dealing with an oblique issue of undetermined severity, writes MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. He’ll be shut down from throwing “for at least a few more days” as the team further evaluates. Graves’ status is of particular note given that he’s with the Marlins after being selected out of the Athletics organization in the Rule 5 Draft. While the rebuilding Marlins are clearly in a better position than most to carry a Rule 5 pick for a whole season, even a short absence would truncate the team’s ability to evaluate him first-hand this spring. Graves, 25, pitched to a 4.47 ERA between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last season, logging 56 1/3 innings with 9.1 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He’s allowed five runs on four hits and four walks with five strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings this spring. Frisaro also notes that righty Brian Ellington won’t throw for a few days due to tendinitis in his right biceps. Ellington is vying for a big league bullpen job after whiffing 48 hitters in 44 2/3 MLB frames last year. Those strikeouts, however, came with a sky-high 7.25 ERA.
  • Amed Rosario apparently overcompensated for his ailing knee to the point where he developed some tightness in his hamstring and groin, writes Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. None of the issues facing Rosario seem especially serious, as Mets manager Mickey Callaway suggested that the Rosario’s absence from the lineup for the past few days “probably” won’t jeopardize his Opening Day readiness. That said, Callaway did note that it’s at least somewhat of a concern that Rosario is missing some “valuable reps and playing time.” Ackert also notes that Jacob deGrom is set to make his first spring start on Sunday. That may not be soon enough to be ready for Opening Day, but it seems likely to have him on track to start one of the team’s early regular-season games.
  • The Red Sox were able to breathe a sigh of relief this week as Drew Pomeranz was cleared to restart a throwing program after a brief scare with a mild flexor strain, writes the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham. Manager Alex Cora didn’t want to proclaim that Pomeranz would be ready to go for the beginning of the season just yet, though Abraham notes that his current schedule should allow him to be healthy enough to take the ball for Boston’s fourth or fifth game of the year, barring any setbacks.
  • Padres outfielder Alex Dickerson, who was diagnosed with a sprained UCL recently, could be looking at Tommy John surgery to repair his throwing elbow, tweets Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Dickerson, who missed all of the 2017 season due to back surgery, is still considering a non-surgical rehab program as well, however.

NL East Notes: Joseph, Fedde, deGrom, Marlins

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Despite the fact that he’s left without a clear role on the Phillies, Tommy Joseph turned away “serious interest” from teams in Japan and Korea this offseason, reports Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Joseph consulted with his former teammate, Darin Ruf, who spent the 2017 season playing with the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization and raked at a .315/.396/.569 clip. Ruf recommended to Joseph that he should make the jump, but Joseph wasn’t ready to make that move just yet. “You never want to give up the opportunity to play in the major leagues,” said Joseph. “…I want a chance to be here and play in the big leagues.”

The Phillies signed Carlos Santana to a three-year, $60MM contract this offseason, pushing Rhys Hoskins to the outfield and rendering Joseph without an opportunity outside of a bench role. Phils skipper Gabe Kapler has been playing Joseph in the corner outfield this spring to enhance his versatility, but Joseph still faces an uphill battle when it comes to securing even semi-regular at-bats in a crowded first base/outfield mix with the Phils.

Here’s more out of the NL East…

  • Erick Fedde made his first appearance of the spring this week, taking the mound for the first time since suffering a flexor strain that ended his season last summer. MLB.com’s Jamal Collier spoke with the promising Nationals right-hander, stating that he felt no lingering effects in his previously problematic forearm. Collier notes, too, that Fedde’s velocity looks to be back to normal after dipping last summer before the right-hander was shelved for the remainder of the year. While the 25-year-old Fedde, a former first-round pick and longtime top prospect in the organization, comes with plenty of upside and hopes to break camp with the club, Collier notes that his remaining minor league options could make that difficult. Right-hander A.J. Cole is the current favorite for the fifth spot in the Nats’ rotation, perhaps in part due to the fact that he’s out of options.
  • Jacob deGrom’s availability for Opening Day is in question, writes Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. While the back stiffness that’s been hampering deGrom in the past few days isn’t believed to be serious, the Mets would prefer deGrom to make five starts to ramp up for the regular season. In order to make that schedule, he’d need to start a game by Sunday, and he’ll likely need to complete two bullpen sessions before he’s cleared to do so. The New York Post’s Mike Puma takes things a bit further, suggesting that deGrom may not be ready for the first week or so of the season (Twitter link). It’s understandable that the Mets would prefer to proceed with caution after the rampant injuries that ran through their pitching staff last season, though, and it doesn’t sound at present that deGrom is in danger of missing any significant time once the regular season rolls around.
  • Marlins CEO Derek Jeter was largely dismissive of the grievance filed by the MLBPA against his team (as well as the Rays, A’s and Pirates), per Barry Jackson, Clark Spencer and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. “As we have done since the day we took over in October, we will continue to do everything we can to build a foundation for sustained success and improve this organization — which has not made the postseason since 2003 and has gone eight seasons without a winning record,” Jeter said in response to the grievance, which alleges that the four teams listed are not properly reallocating their revenue-sharing profits to improving their clubs.
  • Sticking with the Marlins, Craig Davis of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel writes that non-roster invitee Scott Van Slyke has impressed manager Don Mattingly early in camp as he vies for a job. Mattingly, of course, knows Van Slyke well, having also managed him during his best years with the Dodgers. Van Slyke, Davis notes, changed his hitting mechanics this offseason at the behest of his father Andy — a two-time Silver Slugger winner and three-time big league All-Star. Of some note, Davis adds that Van Slyke’s minor league deal with the Fish does not contain an opt-out at the end of Spring Training, so even if he doesn’t make crack the 25-man roster, he could very well be ticketed for Triple-A New Orleans, where he’d serve as a depth option with a strong track record against left-handed pitching and experience in all three outfield slots.

Injury Notes: Gurriel, Frazier, Gausman, Stroman, Thornburg, Eaton

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The Astros have shipped first baseman Yuli Gurriel to Houston so his injured hand can be evaluated, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). At this point, the situation is more or less a mystery, with no real indication how the issue arose or just what the club is concerned about. Clearly, though, the team’s training staff has found cause to get a closer look from a specialist.

Here’s more on some injury situations from around the game:

  • Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier has been diagnosed with a concussion, tweets MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Frazier made a leaping catch in yesterday’s Grapefruit League game against the Pirates and stumbled a bit before falling backwards and hitting his head against the base of the left-field wall (video link). Manager Aaron Boone said Frazier will be down for “a few days” and acknowledged the seemingly optimistic nature of that timeline. Frazier is far from a lock to make the Opening Day roster in New York with Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Jacoby Ellsbury all on the roster, but he remains a key potential long-term piece for the Yanks.
  • It seems that Orioles righty Kevin Gausman has largely shaken off a home-plate collision yesterday, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. The young starter, who is a key factor in the team’s hopes for the coming season, says he “feel[s] pretty good” on the whole despite slamming into Tigers youngster Jeimer Candelario. For the time being, at least, Gausman is expected to take the ball for his next scheduled spring outing.
  • The outlook is at least a bit more worrisome for Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman. Per MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm, shoulder inflammation is holding Stroman back. Though he has already been cleared by an MRI of structural concerns, Stroman will rest up in hopes of moving past a problem that has evidently been going on for a few weeks. The key Jays hurler says he’s hoping to be fully ramped up for “the very beginning of the start of the season,” even if it’s not Opening Day, though surely the organization will proceed with caution.
  • The Red Sox will welcome reliever Tyler Thornburg back to the hill for the first time since he underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. A bullpen session is just one of many steps back, of course, and Thornburg still has some hurdles to clear. He has yet to pitch competitively for the Boston organization (excepting brief spring action last year) since coming over in a trade in advance of the 2017 season.
  • Indications are that Nationals outfielder Adam Eaton is largely progressing well after a long layoff for a torn ACL. As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes, though, Eaton has yet to appear in game action. That appears to be less a reflection of Eaton’s surgically repaired joint than it is a planned effort to build him up deliberately. “We’re going to take it and be methodical and do it right for the first time and make sure I’m overcooked, so to speak, before I go out there.” While it’s surely tempting to max out Eaton’s reps after a lost season, skipper Davey Martinez emphasized the primary goal is to have Eaton at full speed come Opening Day.
  • The rival Mets are reporting shoulder and back soreness for Yoenis Cespedes and Jacob deGrom, respectively, but those don’t seem to be real concerns at this point, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports. However, the New York organization is likely to hold back first baseman Dominic Smith for a while after he was diagnosed with a strained quad. He already seemed to face a difficult task of cracking the Opening Day roster, so this setback is not likely to help the cause. (New reliever Anthony Swarzak just left his relief appearance with an apparent calf injury, as Mike Puma of the New York Post was among those to tweet, though details are sparse at this time.)

NL East Notes: Degrom, Lagares, Marlins

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The Mets attempted to work out a long-term contract extension with talented right-hander Jacob deGrom this offseason, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. However, those talks apparently never gained much traction. At this point, it appears as though deGrom expects to test the open market after his remaining three arbitration years are up. “As of right now, it looks like it’s going to be a year-to-year thing,” deGrom told reporters on Thursday. “I have got this year and two more, so I am still going to be here a while. If they want to extend past that, I guess we’ll see where it goes.” While those comments still imply that deGrom is keeping an open mind, the nature of his words seem to cast doubt on any chance of him giving the Mets some of his free agent years in advance the 2020-2021 offseason. He avoided arbitration this offseason by agreeing to a one-year, $7.4MM deal for 2018. The 29-year-old righty reached the 200-inning threshold for the first time in 2017 while pitching to a 3.53 ERA and 3.23 xFIP. During his four major league seasons, deGrom has been worth an average of over 4 fWAR. Since reaching the majors in 2013 (and ultimately winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award), he’s posted a sparkling 2.98 ERA, having struck out 9.67 batters per nine innings while walking just 2.33.

Other notable items from around the NL East…

  • Elsewhere in the Big Apple, Mets center fielder Juan Lagares has faith in his newly-overhauled swing, Puma writes in a separate piece. Lagares reportedly spent ten days in California with Craig Wallenbrock, a well-known hitting coach. His new approach (in line with a recent trend around the league) involves an objective to hit the ball in the air more often. “The last couple of years I have hit the ball super hard, but on the ground, so I am just trying to get it a little more in the air,” he says. While it’s certainly true that Lagares’ past approach has elicited a far greater percentage of ground balls (50.8) than fly balls (28.8), his claim that he’s hit the ball “super hard” seems a bit far-fetched. Via Fangraphs, the soon-to-be 29-year-old owns a hard contact rate of just 27.5% for his career, and his figure from last season (29.6%) was just north of that.
  • A small handful of current and former Marlins front office executives are set to run marathons in seven consecutive days on seven different continents, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. The “183.4-mile racing odyssey,” as Jackson calls it, will be led by Jeff Conine; he’ll be joined by ex-Marlins-president David Samson and ex-broadcasting-executive P.J. Loyello, along with two current Miami officials and 11 other people in a fascinating enterprise that will benefit 11 charities at the expense of an immense physical toll on their bodies. “You can’t pass up a life experience like this. I’ll never have the opportunity to do something like this ever again,” Conine offered on the subject. “Why not?”

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salaries.

Onto today’s landslide of deals…

National League West

  • The Rockies have agreed to a $2MM salary with righty Chad Bettis, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). That’s a fair sight more than his $1.5MM projection. Bettis surely would have had an opportunity to set a bigger platform for himself, but had to battle through testicular cancer before returning to the hill in 2017. Meanwhile, second baseman DJ LeMahieu has settled for a $8.5MM payday in his final year of arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. That’s just a hair short of the $8.8MM he was pegged for in MLBTR’s projections.
  • Giants second baseman Joe Panik is slated to earn $3.45MM in his first season of arb eligibility, Devan Fink of SB Nation was first to tweet. That’s just a hair shy of the $3.5MM that MLBTR projected. Lefty Will Smith has settled at $2.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The club has also announced deals with its remaining arb-eligible players, right-handed relievers Sam Dyson ($4.6MM projection), Hunter Strickland ($1.7MM projection), and Cory Gearrin ($1.6MM projection). (H/t John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Strickland earns $1.55MM, Nightengale tweets.
  • The Padres and Freddy Galvis agreed to a $6.825MM deal for his lone season of team control in San Diego, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. Galvis, who spent the first several seasons of his career in Philadelphia before being traded this winter, had been projected to make $7.4MM. Infielder Cory Spangenberg settled at $1.7MM, Heyman tweets, falling below a $2.0MM projection. San Diego has also reached agreements with righty Kirby Yates and outfielder Matt Szczur, the team announced. Yates will earn $1,062,500, Heyman tweets, which is just shy of his $1.1MM projection. Szczur, meanwhile, will get $950K, a healthy boost over his $800K projection, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $7.75MM deal with center fielder A.J. Pollock, Murray tweets. Pollock was projected to earn $8.4MM in his final year of eligibility before free agency. Murray also notes that Brad Boxberger is set to earn $1.85MM next year (Twitter link). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that lefty Andrew Chafin ($1.2MM projection) and the D-backs have a $1.195MM deal in place. Third baseman Jake Lamb, meanwhile, agreed to a $4.275MM deal with the Diamondbacks, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). Lamb, eligible for arbitration for the first time, was projected to earn $4.7MM. He’s controllable through 2020. And ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM projection) landed a $1.3MM deal. Righty Taijuan Walker has settled for $4.825MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which is within range but shy of the $5.0MM he projected for. Lefty Robbie Ray has settled at $3.95MM, per Nightengale (Twitter link), which falls short of his $4.2MM projection. Infielder Nick Ahmed will $1.275MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which tops the projected figure of $1.1MM. Arizona has also announced that Chris Owings and David Peralta have agreed to terms.
  • The Dodgers are in agreement on a $6MM deal with lefty Alex Wood, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He had projected at $6.4MM. Meanwhile, righty Josh Fields agreed to a $2.2MM deal, tweets Murray. Heyman tweets that Enrique Hernandez will earn $1.6MM. Fields’ projection of $2.2MM was on the money, whereas Hernandez topped his mark by $300K. Fields is controlled through 2019, while Hernandez is controllable through 2020. Southpaw Tony Cingrani gets $2.3MM, Murray tweets, which is just a shade over his $2.2MM projection. Outfielder Joc Pederson has also settled, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter), with Beth Harris of the Associated Press reporting a $2.6MM salary that rather handily tops the $2.0MM that MLBTR projected.

National League Central

  • All three remaining Cardinals arb-eligibles have agreed to deals, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. Marcell Ozuna will earn $9MM after drawin a much larger $10.9MM projection, Heyman tweets. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained that Ozuna likely wouldn’t quite reach the amount the algorithm suggested, though the actual salary still comes in a bit shy of expectations. Lefty Tyler Lyons ($1.3MM projection) receives $1.2MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The Cards have also reached agreement with Michael Wacha for $5.3MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter); he was projected to earn $5.9MM.
  • The Reds agreed to a $860K salary with Anthony DeSclafani, tweets Murray. DeSclafani missed the 2017 season due to arm troubles and had been projected to earn $1.1MM. He’ll remain under Reds control through 2020. Billy Hamilton and the Reds have settled on a one-year deal worth $4.6MM, tweets Murray. A popular trade candidate this offseason, Hamilton was projected to earn $5MM and comes with another two seasons of team control. Murray also conveys that Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $1.3125MM deal, which lines up fairly well with his $1.4MM projection.
  • The Cubs have struck a deal with lefty Justin Wilson, agreeing to a one-year, $4.25MM pact, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Wilson, who had been projected at $4.3MM, will be a free agent next winter. The Cubs alsoagreed to a $950K salary with infielder Tommy La Stella, tweets MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. La Stella was projected to make $1MM in his first offseason of arbitration eligiblity and can be controlled through 2020. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs have agreed to a $4.175MM salary, per Nightengale (on Twitter). That sum comes in a fair bit shy of his projected $4.9MM projection as a first-time eligible player. The Cubs control Hendricks through the 2020 season. Chicago also agreed with Addison Russell, per Wittenmyer (Twitter link). The shortstop will receive $3.2MM for the coming season.
  • Nightengale reports (on Twitter) that the Brewers and breakout closer Corey Knebel settled at $3.65MM. As a Super Two player, Knebel can be controlled through the 2021 season and will be arb-eligible thrice more. He was projected at $4.1MM. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that the Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson settled at $3.7MM, which falls $1MM shy of his $4.7MM projection (though some of that discrepancy may be due to Nelson’s shoulder injury). Milwaukee also announced a deal for infielders Jonathan Villar (projected at $3MM) and Hernan Perez (projected at $2.2MM). McCalvy reports that Villar will earn $2.55MM, while terms of Perez’s deal are not yet available.
  • The Pirates have avoided arbitration with shortstop Jordy Mercer by settling on a $6.75MM salary for 2018, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Mercer, who’d been projected to earn $6.5MM, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter. Biertempfel also reports that Gerrit Cole will earn that same $6.75MM salary in 2018 — a $3MM raise over last year (Twitter link). He has two years of control remaining and had been projected to earn $7.4MM. Righty George Kontos has also agreed to terms, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). He had projected for $2.7MM and will receive a smidge more, at $2,725,000, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

National League East

  • The Braves reached a $3.4MM deal with righty Arodys Vizcaino, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). He’d been projected at $3.7MM. The Braves and righty Dan Winkler agreed to a $610K salary for the upcoming season, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Winkler tossed just 14 1/3 innings in the Majors this year as he made his way back from elbow surgery. He’d projected at $800K.
  • The Marlins and Miguel Rojas agreed to a $1.18MM deal for 2018, Heyman tweets, placing him north of his $1.1MM projection. Rojas should see additional playing time following the Marlins’ wave of trades this offseason. He’s controlled through 2020. Miami also has a deal in place with infielder Derek Dietrich for $2.9MM, Heyman tweets, after projecting at $3.2MM.
  • The Mets were able to settle perhaps their most notable arb case, agreeing to a $7.4MM deal with righty Jacob deGrom, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). That’s well shy of his $9.2MM projection, though MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained the formula likely overestimated deGrom’s earning power by quite a wide margin. Fellow top righty Noah Syndergaard gets $2.975MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which goes a fair sight past the $1.9MM projection for the outstanding young starter, whose 2017 season was limited by injury. And reliever AJ Ramos will take home $9.225MM, according to Wagner (via Twitter). That’s just barely past the $9.2MM projection.  Wilmer Flores has also avoided arbitration with the Mets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $3.4MM salary, which falls within $300K of his projected rate. The Mets control Flores through the 2019 campaign. The Mets and right-hander Matt Harvey agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.625MM, tweets Nightengale. Harvey, who is a free agent next winter, had been projected to earn $5.9MM. Meanwhile, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets that Jeurys Familia will earn $7.925MM for the upcoming year, while Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that catcher Travis d’Arnaud will earn $3.475MM in 2018 (Twitter link). Familia, a free agent next winter, was projected at $7.4MM. The Mets control d’Arnaud through 2019, and his projection was $3.4MM. Righty Hansel Robles gets $900K, Heyman tweets.
  • Also via Nightengale (Twitter link), the Nationals agreed to a $6.475MM salary for 2018 with right-hander Tanner Roark. That falls about $1MM shy of his $7.5MM projection but still represents a noted raise of $4.315MM for Roark, whom the Nats control through 2019. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post adds that Michael Taylor will earn $2.525MM next year. Taylor is controlled through 2020 and was projected at $2.3MM.
  • The Phillies and Maikel Franco settled on a $2.95MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link). Franco, a Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM, remains under club control with the Phils through the 2021 season. Second bagger Cesar Hernandez will earn at a $5.1MM rate in 2018, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). That beats his $4.7MM projection and wraps up this year’s arb business for the Phillies.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom

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Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available.

Jacob deGrom enters his second year of arbitration eligibility poised to earn a solid bump up from his $4.05MM salary from 2017. He went 15-10 with a 3.53 ERA in 201.1 innings and struck out 239 batters, so my model places him at $9.2MM, good for a $5.1MM raise. This is probably too high based on comparables, as I discuss below, but it should easily be enough to earn him a large raise.

Players who are past their first year of arbitration eligibility general get raises based on their platform year performance only. So we just need to look for pitchers with roughly 15 wins and a ton of strikeouts, along with respectable ERAs. One such player who got a very large raise is David Price—he got a $5.76MM raise back in 2013 after going 20-5 with a 2.56 ERA and 205 punch outs. That is probably somewhat stale by now, although it certainly looks like a ceiling given the much stronger performance in terms of wins and ERA. A more recent ceiling might be Jake Arrieta’s $7.07MM raise two years ago after going 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA. Like Price, he won a Cy Young, and clearly has better numbers. I think both Price and Arrieta cap how high deGrom’s raise can get.

More within striking distance is Stephen Strasburg three years ago. He went 14-11 versus deGrom’s 15-10. And his 3.14 ERA is better than deGrom’s 3.53, but when you consider run environment it’s nearly a dead ringer. A panel might not consider run environment, but either way both have ERAs in the 3’s. Strasburg’s 242 strikeouts are of course very similar to deGrom’s 239. Strasburg took home a $3.43MM raise. Add in some salary inflation, and you might get closer to $4MM for deGrom.

Strasburg is actually the largest raise in the last five years excluding the two Cy Young Award winners (Arrieta and Price), so that might be the best comparable. Tyson Ross had a 13-14 record the same year as Strasburg and just 195 strikeouts, but had a 2.81 ERA. He got a $3.27MM raise. But that is likely to fall below where deGrom gets, and could be viewed as something of a floor. ERA is generally not as important in arbitration as you might expect.

Garrett Richards is the only other comparable that makes sense to me. His $3.23MM raise two years ago off a 15-12/3.65 performance came with only 176 strikeouts, though. So he also likely helps to establish a floor for deGrom.

Overall, I think there is a good case case for deGrom to get a raise closer to $4MM than the $5.1MM projection. Look for a salary around $8MM when push comes to shove.

Heyman’s Latest: Hosmer, Cain, Mariners, deGrom, Dee, Tigers

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Eric Hosmer and a few other big-name Royals are scheduled to hit free agency after the season, but the team is going to make a concerted effort to retain the first baseman, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. The Royals may offer the Scott Boras client upward of $100MM, which, depending on the exact amount and length, could be a stunning commitment from a franchise that has never given a player more than $72MM (Alex Gordon in 2016). Gordon’s four-year contract has been disastrous thus far, and considering the up-and-down nature of Hosmer’s career, the Royals could be taking a substantial risk in handing him a big-money pact. Although, to the 27-year-old Hosmer’s credit, he has enjoyed an outstanding platform season, having slashed .319/.385/.496 with with 24 home runs in 660 plate appearances.

More offseason-related highlights from Heyman via his latest American League and National League Notes columns:

  • While the Royals will attempt to keep Hosmer, it seems they’re resigned to losing center fielder Lorenzo Cain in free agency. The Royals aren’t optimistic they’ll be able to re-sign Cain, 32, as they’re bracing for him to land a lucrative contract of at least four years. The Mariners may be a fit for him, insiders have suggested to Heyman, who adds that Seattle will also take a look at first basemen Lucas Duda and Mitch Moreland if they hit the open market in the offseason.
  • The Mets will likely try to extend right-hander Jacob deGrom in the coming months, per Heyman. DeGrom has been the only Mets starter to survive their injury onslaught this year, turning in yet another excellent campaign with 201 1/3 innings of 3.53 ERA ball, to go with 10.68 K/9 against 2.64 BB/9. He’s already set to turn 30 next year and still has three arbitration-eligible seasons left, meaning deGrom can’t become a free agent until the age of 32. It could therefore behoove him to get some long-term security over the winter, and Heyman notes that a deal would likely span at least four years. If no agreement comes during the off months, he’ll build on this year’s $4.05MM salary in arbitration.
  • Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon has bounced back from a suspension-shortened 2016 to increase his trade value this year, Heyman writes. Along with providing top-notch defense, Gordon has hit .305/.339/.369 with 57 stolen bases in 678 PAs, which could put him on second base-needy teams’ radars in the offseason. But with either $38MM or $51MM coming his way over the next four years (depending on a $14MM club option or $1MM buyout in 2021), the Marlins may have to eat some money in order to trade the 29-year-old (30 next April), Heyman opines.
  • Giants third base coach Phil Nevin is a “strong candidate” to take over for Brad Ausmus as the Tigers’ manager, according to Heyman. Nevin played with the Tigers from 1996-97 and managed at their Double-A and Triple-A levels from 2010-13. Thanks to his work in the latter capacity, he’s already familiar with Tigers general manager Al Avila.

White Sox Maintain High Asking Price On Quintana

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The White Sox remain undeterred in seeking to obtain a big haul for sturdy lefty Jose Quintana, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. With three years of affordable control remaining after the current season, the rebuilding organization probably doesn’t need to deal Quintana this summer.

To this point, the team has stood on that notable piece of leverage, continuing to ask for “two very top prospects” in its conversations with interested rivals. The South Siders have pressed the Astros for Francis Martes and Kyle Tucker, while asking the Yankees to headline a deal with either Gleyber Torres or Clint Frazier.

That strategy seemed in danger of backfiring earlier this year, as Quintana stumbled out of the gates. But the 28-year-old has righted the ship of late, perhaps restoring any lost shine.

Quintana has thrown only 104 1/3 frames over 18 starts, putting him shy of a 200-inning pace, though he has yet to exhibit any health issues. (More broadly, durability is one of the lefty’s chief attributes.) His 15.5% K%-BB% is a near-exact match for the numbers he carried over the prior three campaigns. A rise in home runs allowed (1.21 per nine) is perhaps the largest single factor differentiating Quintana’s current campaign from the five strong seasons that came before.

If teams buy into the improved form Quintana has shown since the start of June — 45 strikeouts and just 12 earned runs over forty frames — then perhaps they’ll be willing to meet the steep asking price. Then again, his less-than-dominant form over the course of the current season raises yet more questions about just how hard contenders should push to get him.

For the Astros, Heyman notes, Quintana may not really be as impactful an arm as the team would prefer to acquire. That makes sense: Houston is running off with the AL West and has many quality rotation options, but would love to add a true lock-down starter to the top of its staff.

In fact, the ’Stros have gone so far as to ask the Mets about star righty Jacob deGrom, per the report. (Tom Verducci of SI.com had previously reported some level of interest.) He’d likely be a more impactful addition, though there’s still no reason to think the Mets have any interest in even considering a deal.

As it stands, teams like the Astros and Yankees are continuing to “look around for alternatives,” per the report. But the lack of obviously available pitchers of comparable or better quality — with the exception, it seems, of Sonny Gray — represents another key element of the White Sox’ bargaining position. Just how things will turn out remains to be seen, but to this point the long standoff continues.

Mets Injury Updates: Duda, Flores, Cespedes, Cabrera, d’Arnaud

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The health issues have begun to pile up for the Mets, who just began their first series of the year against the division-rival Nationals. Manager Terry Collins spoke with reporters (including MLB.com’s Danny Knobler) before the game and provided updates on several players:

  • First baseman Lucas Duda is heading to the DL after hyperextending his elbow in a collision at first base on Wednesday. It’s not known how long he’s expected to miss, but clearly the expectation is he needs at least a ten-day layoff. While the hot-hitting, left-handed slugger will be missed in the lineup, he’s actually a fairly easy player to replace for New York given the presence of three left-handed corner outfielders — including Jay Bruce, who’s playing at first again tonight.
  • Also hitting the 10-day DL is infielder Wilmer Flores, who is currently in the hospital for treatment of an infection in his right knee. It’s not immediately clear what it’ll take to get him back in working order, but he’s expected to remain hospitalized through the weekend, per the report.
  • Coming up to fill in for that pair are utilityman T.J. Rivera and lefty Sean Gilmartin. The latter is expected to function in a relief role, but could see a spot start. Jacob deGrom was unable to take the hill tonight after coming down with a stiff neck, but he’ll try again tomorrow. If the seemingly minor issue still proves problematic, then Gilmartin will step into the rotation briefly.
  • While those two DL placements were the only ones required at this point, there are several other key players who are too banged up to play tonight. Yoenis Cespedes will need a few days off to rest his hamstring, though it’s surely a good sign that he’s being kept on the active roster. Likewise, a hammy issue is holding back shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, though he’s expected to be back in the lineup tomorrow. And backstop Travis d’Arnaud’s bruised wrist left him unable to throw well enough to suit up tonight, though it seems he too will be back in short order. While the club has a skeleton crew tonight, they’ll seek to get by without further roster shakeups for the time being.
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