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Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

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The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each

National League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. All players non-tendered go directly to free agency

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month.

Later Updates

  • The Reds have non-tendered righty Daniel Duarte and minor league outfielder Allan Cerda, taking both off the 40-man roster. Neither had been eligible for arbitration, but Cincinnati will send both into free agency without having to place either on waivers. Duarte made three relief appearances this year, his first as a big leaguer. Cerda, 23 next month, has yet to reach the majors. He hit .198/.350/.401 in 257 plate appearances in Double-A. Cincinnati also announced that six players designated for assignment earlier this week — Aristides Aquino, Jared Solomon, Kyle Dowdy, Derek Law, Art Warren and Jeff Hoffman — were all let go. Both Duarte and Cerda have already agreed to re-sign with Cincinnati on minor league deals, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (Twitter link).

Earlier Moves

  • The Braves freed a pair of 40-man roster spots by non-tendering minor league pitchers Brooks Wilson and Alan Rangel. Rangel spent most of this past season in Double-A, while Wilson didn’t pitch in 2022. Atlanta also announced that three players non-tendered earlier this week — Guillermo Heredia, Jackson Stephens and Silvino Bracho — have been let go.
  • The Giants have non-tendered relievers Mauricio Llovera and Alex Young and infielder Donovan Walton, clearing three spots on the 40-man roster. Walton was acquired from the Mariners midseason and hit .158/.179/.303 in 24 games with San Francisco. Young made 24 appearances after his contract was purchased from the Guardians. Llovera pitched 17 times after signing a minor league deal last offseason. Additionally San Francisco non-tendered seven players who’d been designated for assignment earlier this week: Drew Strotman, Meibrys Viloria, Colton Welker, Jarlin Garcia, Dom Nunez, Sam Delaplane and Jason Vosler.
  • The Pirates non-tendered lefty Manny Banuelos and catcher Tyler Heineman. Both had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Diamondbacks non-tendered righty Reyes Moronta, the team announced. The reliever posted a 4.50 ERA in 17 outings with the Snakes after being claimed off waivers from the Dodgers.
  • The Padres announced they’ve cut loose catcher Jorge Alfaro and righty Efrain Contreras. Alfaro had been projected at a $3.6MM salary this season, a hefty amount after a .246/.285/.383 season. Contreras hasn’t pitched in the majors; he had a tough year in High-A and loses his 40-man spot spot as a result.
  • The Cubs have non-tendered center fielder Rafael Ortega, as well as minor league pitchers Brailyn Marquez and Alexander Vizcaino. Ortega has seen a decent amount of action the last two years and had a respectable .241/.331/.358 line through 371 plate appearances this past season. Nevertheless, the Cubs opted against a salary in the $1.7MM range for next year. Marquez has been a top pitching prospect but has battled injury issues for the past few years. Vizcaino was part of the Anthony Rizzo trade with the Yankees but didn’t pitch in the minors this year.
  • The Nationals non-tendered righty Tommy Romero. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week. Washington confirmed the previously-reported decisions to part with Luke Voit and Erick Fedde.
  • The Brewers cut loose right-handers Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave and Luis Perdomo. All three were part of Milwaukee’s middle innings mix, with Gustave’s 45 appearances the most among that group. Gott had a 4.15 ERA over 45 2/3 innings after signing a free agent deal last offseason.
  • The Rockies non-tendered infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson, the club announced. The 28-year-old had been projected for a $2.1MM salary. A speedster with the ability to play anywhere up the middle, Hampson just hasn’t hit at the big league level. He’s coming off a .211/.287/.307 showing through 226 plate appearances.
  • The Mets announced they’ve non-tendered Sean Reid-Foley and confirmed they’re letting go of Dominic Smith, who’s non-tender was previously reported. This year, Reid-Foley made seven MLB appearances, tossing 10 innings of relief.
  • The Dodgers have non-tendered infielder Edwin Rios and utilityman Luke Williams, per a club announcement. Los Angeles also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of former MVP Cody Bellinger. Rios has shown some offensive promise in the past and owns a .212/.299/.492 line through 112 big league games. He missed a good chunk of this past season with a hamstring strain. Williams was claimed off waivers from the Marlins recently; the Dodgers could look to bring him back on a minor league deal.

Braves Acquire Dennis Santana From Rangers

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The Rangers announced they’ve traded reliever Dennis Santana to the Braves in exchange for cash considerations. Atlanta designated Jackson Stephens for assignment in a corresponding 40-man roster move.

Santana soaked up plenty 0f middle relief innings in Arlington, pitching 58 2/3 frames across 63 outings. He generally struggled over that stretch, posting a 5.22 ERA with a below-average 21.2% strikeout percentage and an elevated 11% walk rate. The right-hander has posted subpar strikeout and walk marks throughout his parts of five seasons in the majors with the Dodgers and Rangers, contributing to a career 5.12 ERA over 139 innings.

The 26-year-old has flashed some interesting traits that suggest he could yet be a productive MLB bullpen arm. He’s gotten swinging strikes between 11% and 12% of his total offerings the past couple seasons, a solid enough rate. Santana has also induced ground-balls on almost half the batted balls against him the last couple years, and his sinker sat just under 97 MPH this past season. He had some success against left and right-handed hitters alike, but he was victimized by an extremely low strand rate that’s likely to bounce back moving forward.

Santana is out of minor league option years, so he’ll have to break camp on the Atlanta roster or be made available to other teams. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive a $1.1MM salary if tendered an arbitration contract, and the Braves’ acquisition suggests they could be prepared to do so this week. That’d figure to give him an inside shot at securing a middle relief role out of Spring Training.

Stephens inked a minor league deal with Atlanta over the offseason. He cracked the big league roster a few days into the year and wound up tallying 53 2/3 innings across 39 outings. The 28-year-old had a solid 3.69 ERA with a decent 46.3% grounder percentage but a 20% strikeout rate. Stephens’ swing-and-miss rate also sat at a subpar 9.3%, and the Braves have elected to roll the dice on Santana’s upside in swapping out potential middle innings arms.

Atlanta will have a week to deal Stephens or run him through waivers. If he goes unclaimed, he’d have the right to become a minor league free agent.

Braves Place Jackson Stephens On 7-Day IL, Recall Jay Jackson

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The Braves placed right-hander Jackson Stephens on the 7-day concussion IL and recalled fellow righty Jay Jackson, the team announced today. Per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Stephens has been diagnosed with a mild concussion. He suffered the injury when a Brendan Donovan liner ricocheted off his forehead in the ninth inning of the Braves’ blowout win over the Cardinals last night.

Should Jackson find his way into a game, it’ll be his first action with the Braves, though his recall marks his second stint with the big-league club this year. He had previously been called up when Max Fried went on the concussion IL earlier this month but did not enter a game.

In 56 1/3 innings in the majors across parts of three seasons with the Padres, Brewers, and Giants, the 34-year-old — who also spent three years pitching in Japan for the Hiroshima Carp — owns a 4.31 ERA (4.22 FIP) as well as a stellar 32.6% strikeout rate and a not-so-stellar 12.8% walk rate. He’s performed admirably in limited action for Triple-A Gwinnett this year, posting a 1.72 ERA in 15 2/3 innings with a 29.5% strikeout rate and a much more palatable 4.9% walk rate.

Stephens, who hadn’t appeared in a major league game since a 2018 stint with the Reds heading into the season, had been something of a revelation at the back end of a top-notch Braves bullpen. While bad luck against the Cardinals last night marred his season numbers somewhat, he still owns a 3.89 ERA (3.56 FIP) in 44 innings across 32 appearances. In a bullpen that also includes Kenley Jansen, A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek, Colin McHugh, and Raisel Iglesias (who essentially took the place of Will Smith), Stephens has mostly pitched in low-leverage situations, though not exclusively.

It isn’t yet clear how long Stephens will be out, but he’s probably a safe bet for the Braves’ postseason roster, presuming he’s back and ready to pitch by then. Jackson may benefit from the forthcoming expansion of rosters on the first of September, though the Braves have a pair of pitchers nearing return (Darren O’Day and Mike Soroka, who’s slated to make his third rehab start today as he works his way back from a pair of achilles tears) that could well create a roster crunch sooner than later, even with an extra spot available in the bullpen.

Braves Select Jackson Stephens, Designate Jacob Webb

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The Braves announced this evening they’ve selected Jackson Stephens onto the big league roster. Mark Bowman of MLB.com first noted that Stephens had reported to the team. In a corresponding move, reliever Jacob Webb has been designated for assignment.

Stephens returns to the big leagues for the first time in four seasons. The 6’2″ right-hander broke into the majors in 2017 with the Reds, pitching 63 1/3 innings over two seasons. He posted just a 4.83 ERA with a subpar 19% strikeout rate and 36.7% ground-ball percentage, then spent the 2019 campaign in Triple-A. After electing minor league free agency, Stephens was unsigned for two seasons before returning in the Venezuelan Winter League last offseason.

The Alabama native starred in Venezuela, working to a 1.82 ERA in 49 1/3 innings en route to the league’s Pitcher of the Year award. The Braves were impressed enough by his form to add him on a minor league deal, and he worked his way back to the highest level after a lone outing with Triple-A Gwinnett. Stephens had worked almost exclusively as a reliever during his final couple seasons in the Reds system, but he pitched out of the rotation in Venezuela and worked six innings as a starter during his lone outing with the Stripers.

Atlanta selected prospect Bryce Elder to start tonight’s game, making his MLB debut in the process. Whether Elder will take a permanent rotation spot moving forward isn’t clear, and Stephens could be an option both for some stray starts or multi-inning relief work. The 27-year-old is out of minor league option years. Now that the Braves have brought him up to the majors, he has to stick on the active roster or be designated for assignment and made available to other clubs.

That’s the fate in which Webb now finds himself. The righty worked a career-high 34 1/3 innings with the World Series-winning club last season, his third straight campaign at the MLB level. He posted an excellent 1.06 ERA in 44 appearances over his first two seasons, but he missed significant time in both years. In 2019, Webb went down in August with a season-ending elbow impingement. The following year, he missed the first month and a half of the shortened schedule because of a shoulder strain.

Webb finally stayed healthy last season and managed decent results, pitching to a 4.19 ERA with a slightly below-average 21.6% strikeout rate. That belies an excellent 15.6% swinging strike percentage, however, as Webb has missed bats at a quality rate in all three of his MLB seasons. Atlanta had optioned Webb to Gwinnett to open the season, but he has yet to get in a game with the Stripers. He’s in his final option year, but another team could take a flier on him via waivers over the coming days given his decent track record.

Braves, Jackson Stephens Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Braves have signed right-handed pitcher Jackson Stephens to a minor league deal, according to Alfonso E. Saer Gomez and David O’Brien of The Athletic. (Twitter links.) As noted by both tweets, the 27-year-old was recently awarded Pitcher of the Year in the Venezuelan Winter League.

Stephens was selected by the Reds in the 18th round of the 2012 draft. Working primarily as a starter, he worked his way up the minor league ranks and was able to make his MLB debut in 2017, throwing 25 innings over four starts and three relief appearances. In 2018, he made 29 more appearances, all out of the bullpen, throwing 38 1/3 innings. He hasn’t been able to crack the big leagues since, making his 63 1/3 innings over those two campaigns the total of his big league experience thus far. He has a career ERA of 4.83, strikeout rate of 19% and walk rate of 8.5%.

In 2019, he logged 84 innings in Triple-A and then elected free agency after he was outrighted off the roster at the end of the year. After missing out on 2020, he spent 2021 with Tecolotes de los Dos Laredos of the Mexican League. He logged 65 innings there, with an ERA of 4.98. Shortly thereafter, he joined Cardenales de Lara and had perhaps his best run of success to date. In 49 1/3 innings over 14 games, including nine starts, he struck out 44 hitters, walking only 10, putting up an ERA of 1.82. As mentioned, he was awarded the league’s Pitcher of the Year honors.

Stephens doesn’t have much on his track record that can match that recent showing in Venezuela, either in the majors or the upper minors. However, he’s only 27 years old, turning 28 in May. For the Braves, there’s no harm in bringing him aboard and seeing if that recent uptick in his performance is due to some sort of adjustment that could be sustainable.

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