Jackie Bradley Jr.

Blue Jays Notes: Stripling, Guerrero Jr., Schneider

By Jacob Smith | October 9, 2022 at 9:27pm CDT

The Blue Jays enter the offseason on the heels of one of the most epic collapses in postseason history. Toronto led the Mariners by a score of 8-1 in the sixth inning of Game 2 of their Wild Card series before Seattle rallied for nine runs in the final four innings en route to a 10-9 series-clinching victory. Saturday’s Game 2 is only the third playoff game ever in which a team came back to win from a deficit of seven runs or more, and holds the record for the largest deficit surmounted in a playoff comeback by a road team.

As the Mariners head to Houston to take on their division rivals in the ALDS, the Blue Jays head into the offseason with a decent idea of what their roster will look like in 2023. Toronto’s current active roster only contains four players, Anthony Bass, David Phelps, Ross Stripling, and Jackie Bradley Jr., who will be free agents this offseason. Since Bradley Jr.’s .524 OPS with the Blue Jays will probably not warrant another opportunity in Toronto, Ross Stripling is the free agent that will receive the majority of the front office’s attention.

Stripling was fantastic in his role as a rotation replacement for Hyun-Jin Ryu, who went down in June with a UCL injury that ultimately resulted in Tommy John surgery. Over 24 starts for the Jays, Stripling accumulated a 2.92 ERA and struck out 100 batters, while walking only 14. Ryu’s injury will likely keep him out for most, if not all of 2023, depending on the speed of his recovery. It seems possible, then, that Stripling could return to Toronto on a multi-year deal and fill a spot in their rotation long-term, since Ryu’s contract expires after 2023.

On the bullpen side, Bass is coming off his finest big-league season in which he posted a cumulative 1.54 ERA out of the bullpen in 70 1/3 innings split between the Miami Marlins and the Blue Jays. Toronto has a $3 million option on Bass for 2023, which they are almost sure to pick up. Phelps also had a fine 2022 out of the ’pen for the Jays, logging a 2.83 ERA in 63 2/3 innings. If they are unable to retain Phelps, they may seek external bullpen help from what is shaping up to be a fairly rich market for free agent relievers.

From a positional perspective, much of the Blue Jays’ offseason discourse will center around locking up their young stars long-term. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will head into his second year of arbitration, and is due for a big pay raise. Guerrero Jr. has said publicly that he is “open” to a long-term extension with the Jays and that he hopes “something can be done” during this offseason. Keeping their franchise cornerstone in Toronto is going to require Jays ownership to dole out the largest contract in franchise history. A theoretical extension for Guerrero Jr., age 23, ought to take him well into his mid-30’s and would dwarf the $150 million in total cash handed to George Springer two years ago. Bo Bichette, who is entering his first year of arbitration, is another extension candidate that the Jays would surely love to keep in Toronto.

The biggest question surrounding Toronto’s offseason is not one regarding players, but of their manager. John Schneider was named interim manager after Charlie Montoyo was fired on July 13. Under Schneider, the Jays went 46-28 and went from holding a half game lead for the third and final AL wild card spot to securing the first wild card spot by a two-game margin. According to Mitch Bannon of SI.com (via Twitter), there is overwhelming support from Blue Jays players for Schneider to return as their manager. Third baseman Matt Chapman was vocal about his support for Schneider after the Jays Game 2 loss, saying that Schneider is “great” for the Jays and “understands the pulse” of the players (via Twitter).

Regardless of whether or not Schneider returns to manage the Blue Jays, Toronto’s roster looks primed to compete for another postseason spot in 2023.

Blue Jays Sign Jackie Bradley Jr., Designate Matt Peacock

By Darragh McDonald | August 9, 2022 at 2:55pm CDT

2:55pm: The Blue Jays have announced the signing, optioning utility player Otto Lopez to make space on the active roster and designating righty Matt Peacock for assignment to create space on the 40-man. Peacock was claimed off waivers from the Royals in July and has thrown ten innings for the Jays this year with a 5.40 ERA.

2:20pm: The Blue Jays are signing outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr., reports Ezekiel Telemaco of WEEI. Chris Cotillo of MassLive confirmed the deal on Twitter, reporting that it’s a major league deal. The Blue Jays have a full 40-man roster, meaning a corresponding move will be required.

Bradley, 32, was just released by the Red Sox last week and will now land with their division rivals in Toronto. The defensive specialist is having yet another down season at the plate, hitting .210/.257/.321 on the year. That production is 42% below league average, by measure of wRC+. The Red Sox let rookie Jarren Duran take over the center field position in recent months, with Bradley kicked to a corner. He was further nudged out of the outfield mix when they acquired Tommy Pham at the deadline, leading to Bradley’s release.

Despite that tepid offensive production, Bradley can still provide value with his glove. Defensive Runs Saved has given him a five on the year, a drop from last year’s 12 but still quite good. Ultimate Zone Rating has given him a 4.9 on the campaign so far after a 10.7 last year. Outs Above Average has given him three on the year already, after accruing four last year. That puts him in the 84th percentile among fielders across the league this season.

The Blue Jays recently put George Springer on the injured list, but acquired Whit Merrifield at the deadline for some extra outfield depth. That gives them a current outfield rotation of Merrifield, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer. It seems unlikely that Bradley would get regular playing time over those first four, given his struggles with the bat. Zimmer, however, has been used primarily as a defensive replacement and pinch runner, hitting a meager .107/.212/.240 when in the lineup this year for a wRC+ of just 28. Perhaps the Blue Jays view Bradley as a better option for that defensive replacement and pinch runner position.

Bradley has shown more promise with the bat in the past, putting up a batting line of .283/.364/.450 as recently as 2020, producing a wRC+ of 119 in the shortened season. It was on the heels on that strong campaign that the Brewers signed him to a two-year, $24MM deal. However, Bradley struggled in his first year outside of Boston, hitting just .163/.236/.261. He was traded back to the Red Sox in the offseason, along with two prospects, while Hunter Renfroe went to Milwaukee. Though Bradley hasn’t been as bad as he was last year, it was still enough to get released. The Red Sox will still be on the hook for the bulk of his contract, with the Blue Jays only having to pay the prorated league minimum, which be subtracted from what Boston pays.

Red Sox Release Jackie Bradley Jr.

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | August 4, 2022 at 1:15pm CDT

1:15pm: The Red Sox have announced that Bradley has been released. He will now be free to sign with any team for the protated league minimum, with Boston on the hook for the remainder of his contract.

8:55am: The Red Sox will designate veteran outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. for assignment later today, reports Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe.

Boston reacquired Bradley in an offseason trade that sent Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers. The trade netted the Red Sox a pair of prospects, infielders Alex Binelas and David Hamilton, and saw the Sox take on the second year of Bradley’s two-year, $24MM contract in the process. Effectively, the Sox purchased a pair of minor leaguers by bringing Bradley back into the fold and picking up the tab on his deal. Binelas and Hamilton rank as Boston’s No. 22 and No. 26 prospects, respectively, on Baseball America’s midseason ranking of their farm system.

There was certainly some reason for the Sox to roll the dice on a Bradley reunion even after an awful 2021 showing that saw him hit just .163/.236/.261 in 428 plate appearances as a Brewer. He remained an all-world defender in the outfield, was dogged by a .226 average on balls in play that sat 64 points below his career mark, and made hard contact at better-than-average rates (89.7 mph average exit velo, 40.3% hard-hit rate). Of course, Bradley also punched out at a career-worst 30.8% clip in Milwaukee, walked at a career-worst 6.5% rate and popped up more regularly than ever before.

Bradley indeed did not hit as poorly as he did in Milwaukee, but this season’s .210/.257/.321 slash wasn’t nearly enough of a rebound to carry Bradley on the roster for the entirety of the season. He’s been 42% worse than league average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and his defensive marks in center field have fallen off a bit this season (though he’s played right field more regularly anyhow).

25-year-old Jarren Duran has taken over the club’s regular center fielder, getting the bulk of the playing time there since mid-June. He hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire, hitting a meager .232/.280/.384, but his wRC+ of 82 is still well ahead of Bradley’s, though with worse defensive numbers. It seems the club will continue giving him a run of playing time for now to see how he fares down the stretch. Boston acquired Tommy Pham at the deadline, which likely played a part in nudging Bradley out of the corner outfield picture. Pham, Duran and Alex Verdugo will likely be the regular outfield rotation, with Jaylin Davis around as depth and Enrique Hernandez joining the mix once he returns from the injured list.

As for what happens now, there’s no way for the Sox to work out a trade since the deadline has passed. Their only options with Bradley are to put him on waivers or release him. Bradley’s defense will surely intrigue some other teams, but it seems unlikely any team will claim him given his poor offensive performance and contract situation. He’s making a $9.5MM salary this year, leaving a little over $3MM still to be paid out. There’s also a $12MM mutual option for 2023 with an $8MM buyout. Any team putting in a claim would be on the hook for that money. Even the clubs most interested in Bradley will likely just wait for him to clear waivers, at which point he could elect free agency and be signed for the prorated league minimum with the Red Sox on the hook for the remainder.

In the short-term, the trade certainly looks like a misfire for the Sox, with Renfroe having a solid season for the Brewers. He’s hit 19 home runs and is slashing .246/.299/.508 for a wRC+ of 120. However, the long-term evaluation of the deal will depend upon the future development of Binelas and Hamilton.

16 Impending Free Agents Off To Slow Starts At The Plate

By Steve Adams | June 2, 2022 at 7:23pm CDT

The Padres cut ties with Robinson Cano this morning, just as the Mets did before them. It was a tougher decision for the Mets, given the financial obligation they have toward Cano through the 2023 season. However, his lack of production and the presence of younger, better options forced the hand of both parties.

We’re coming up on a third of the way through the 2022 season, and it’ll become increasingly difficult for teams with struggling veterans in the Cano mold to continue trotting them out there. That’s especially true of players who are impending free agents. While fans can (and do) disagree with the thinking, a player like Aaron Hicks, whom the Yankees owe $30.5MM from 2023-25, will get a longer leash than an impending free agent due to that multi-year commitment. So while there are plenty of struggling veterans on long-term deals, those with the thinnest grasp on their current roster spots are those who’ll be off the books at season’s end anyhow.

With that in mind, here’s a look at some names to watch and, when applicable, some of the names behind them who could aid in pushing them out the door (all stats entering Thursday’s play):

Carlos Santana, Royals: I’m not sure anyone other than the Royals’ front office understands the thinking behind continuing to trot Santana out to the field at this point. The 36-year-old is hitting .161/.293/.250 through 147 plate appearances, and it’s not as though that enormous slump is an entirely new development. Santana hit just .214/.319/.342 while playing in 158 of 162 games for the Royals last year and .199/.340/.350 in Cleveland during the shortened 2020 season.

Santana’s very presence on the Royals is due to the team’s effort to return to win-now mode after a rebuild focused on drafting college arms. He signed a two-year, $17.5MM contract heading into the 2021 season but hasn’t been able to bounce back to the form that long made him one of the game’s biggest on-base threats and most underrated offensive performers.

Signing Santana might’ve been a “win-now” move, but it’s hard to argue that continuing to run him out there is in the Royals’ best interest. That’s doubly true with top prospects Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino mashing in Triple-A Omaha. Both are in the same first base/designated hitter mold as Santana, and both Pratto (55) and Pasquantino (61) rank prominently in Baseball America’s updated Top 100 prospect rankings. Pratto got off to a slow start but is hitting .246/.392/.483 over his past 148 plate appearances. Pasquantino burst out of the gates and hasn’t slowed down; he’s hitting .298/.392/.667 with 15 home runs in 204 plate appearances.

The Royals owe Santana the balance of his $10.5MM salary whether he’s on the roster or not, but he’ll start racking up incentives when he reaches 300 plate appearances.

Joey Gallo, Yankees: Gallo was one of the Yankees’ biggest trade-deadline additions in recent years, but he’s never found his footing in the Bronx. His status as a three-true-outcomes player is well-documented, but he’s trended more aggressively toward the least-desirable of those outcomes since donning pinstripes. Gallo has fanned in 38% of his plate appearances as a Yankee while seeing both his power and his walk rate dip. Since the Yankees acquired him, he’s batting .167/.295/.370.

Even with the short porch in right field, Gallo has only five home runs through 141 plate appearances this season. He’s also seen his average exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rate drop in 2022. Gallo is still making loads of hard contact when he hits the ball in the air, per Statcast, and perhaps that’s helping to keep him both in the lineup and on the roster. New York isn’t getting any real offense from Hicks, Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Kyle Higashioka, however. Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson are once again on the injured list. Anthony Rizzo had a massive April but is batting just .162/.274/.303 in his past 117 plate appearances. The Yankees’ AL East lead has begun to shrink, as the Jays have rattled off eight straight wins, and they can’t realistically count on Aaron Judge to carry the offense all season long.

Gallo doesn’t have a high-end outfield prospect breathing down his neck, but if he can’t get things going at the plate, the calls for change are only going to grow louder. He’s earning $10.275MM in his final arbitration season before free agency, and another club might view him as a change-of-scenery candidate with the hopes that he’ll be the position-player equivalent of Sonny Gray and thrive following a rocky stint in the Bronx.

Adam Duvall, Braves: Like Gallo, Duvall’s skill set and offensive profile were well established when the Braves opted to retain him via arbitration. He was coming off a 38-homer campaign, so there was never much doubt he’d be tendered a contract, but Duvall’s brand of huge power/bottom-of-the-scale OBP always left him with a pretty low floor should the power ever evaporate.

That’s been the case in 2022, as Duvall still isn’t walking or hitting for average, and he’s only slugged two homers on the season. Paired with a career-worst 31.9% strikeout rate, those troubling trends have resulted in a .191/.257/.272 slash for Duvall, who has also already been tasked with playing more center field in 2022 than he had in his entire career to date.

Atlanta has already called up Michael Harris II, one of the sport’s fastest-rising outfield talents, and former top prospect Drew Waters is at least putting together respectable, if unexciting results in Triple-A. The Braves have also tinkered with catcher William Contreras in the outfield. Duvall has been MLB’s second-worst qualified hitter, by measure of wRC+, and it’s fair to wonder how long the leash will be.

Miguel Sano, Twins: Sano isn’t technically a free agent at season’s end, but barring a Herculean push to finish the season, it’s nearly impossible to fathom the Twins picking up a $14MM option on him. To Sano’s credit, he hit quite well from June through season’s end (.251/.330/.503, 21 homers, 21 doubles in 373 plate appearances), but he looked absolutely lost at the plate in 2022 before landing on the injured list due to a torn meniscus. Sano hit just .093/.231/.148 in 65 plate appearances.

When Sano does return, he’ll come back to a retooled roster that has seen versatile Luis Arraez rake while picking up regular at-bats at first base. Former No. 1 pick Royce Lewis is getting looks at third base and in left field — though Lewis is on the 10-day IL himself now — and top outfield/first base prospect Alex Kirilloff is hitting well in Triple-A following his return from a wrist injury.

The Twins can keep Sano in Triple-A for 20 days on rehab assignment when he’s ready, and they may want to do just that to give him a chance to show he can recapture some of his late 2021 form. But the clock on Sano’s three-year, $30MM deal is running out, and the first-place Twins have plenty of options to fill out the lineup. None of them have Sano’s raw power — almost no one in MLB does — but the big man’s ongoing contact issues tend to lead to protracted slumps like the one he slogged through earlier this year. If he can’t turn it around quickly upon his return, it’d be difficult to justify playing him over Arraez, Kirilloff and others.

Enrique Hernandez & Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox: Hernandez was a revelation in 2021 when he smacked 20 homers, hit .250/.337/.449, and delivered all-world defense in center field. But as good as year one of his $14MM contract was, the second and final campaign of that deal has been nightmarish. Hernandez is hitting .203/.269/.340 with a career-low hard-hit rate and exit velocity. He’s still playing great defense in center and helping shoulder the second base workload, but the offensive deficiency is glaring.

That’s also somewhat true of Bradley Jr., who returned to Boston after one ill-fated season in Milwaukee. To Bradley’s credit, he has actually picked up the pace quite a bit, hitting .291/.328/.491 since mid-May, but that surge still only brings his overall season line to .227/.284/.353. If Bradley can sustain some of this production, he’ll surely hang onto his roster spot, but it’s hard not to look at young Jarren Duran’s .309/.391/.523 output in Triple-A and start thinking of ways to insert him into the big league lineup. Duran struggled in his debut last year but is still a touted young prospect whom the Sox envision as a long-term building block.

Hernandez is earning $8MM this season. Bradley is on a $9.5MM salary and is still owed an $8MM buyout on a mutual option for the 2023 season.

Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado & Jason Castro, Astros: Gurriel won a batting title and looked like one of the game’s best pure hitters in 2021, but he’s started his 2022 season with a woeful .223/.261/.361 performance through 176 plate appearances. His strikeout rate is up about four percentage points, while his walk rate has halved and his hard-contact numbers have plummeted. Gurriel is also chasing more pitches off the plate (36.4% in 2022, 29.8% in 2021) and making contact on pitches out of the zone at a far lower rate (74.5% in 2022, 81.9% in 2021).

Houston’s catchers, meanwhile, have been the least-productive in baseball. Maldonado has never been much of a hitter but is batting only .133/.208/.239 this season. Castro hasn’t even been able to match that, batting .104/.228/.146. If catching prospect Korey Lee weren’t enduring immense struggles of his own in Triple-A, a change might’ve already been made.

It seems unlikely that the Astros would cut bait on Gurriel, who’s been a prominent presence and one of the team’s most productive hitters since signing more than a half-decade ago. A reduced role is something they’ll have to consider if he can’t right the ship, however. The catchers seem far more vulnerable, and there figure to be some prominent names available on the trade market (Willson Contreras, most notably). That Houston is leading the AL West by 5.5 games despite having the least-productive catchers (29 wRC+) and 29th-ranked offensive output from its first basemen (74 wRC+) is both a testament to their pitching and indictment on the play of their divisional opponents thus far.

Gurriel is being paid $8MM in 2022, while Maldonado is earning a $5MM salary and Castro is at $3.5MM.

Andrew McCutchen, Brewers: Milwaukee added McCutchen on a one-year, $8MM contract this offseason with the idea of installing him as their primary designated hitter. McCutchen tormented the Brewers during his early years with the Pirates, which included an NL MVP win, but he’s hitting .214/.263/.312 to begin his tenure in Milwaukee. Even McCutchen’s typically outstanding production against lefties has gone up in smoke this year, as he’s managed a .196/.224/.391 slash against them.

Despite McCutchen’s ineffectiveness, the Brewers are leading the Majors in homers (70) and sit fifth in total runs scored (238). But if McCutchen, who’s hitless in six straight and has been 73% worse than average at the plate since a return from the Covid list (27 wRC+ in 57 plate appearances), can’t begin to show some signs of life, the Brewers could be on the lookout for some offensive help as the Aug. 2 trade deadline draws nearer.

Robbie Grossman & Tucker Barnhart, Tigers: Between Grossman, Austin Meadows and Victor Reyes, the Tigers have an entire outfield on the injured list. Underwhelming play from young options like Daz Cameron, Akil Baddoo and Derek Hill will probably extend Grossman’s leash, but he was hitting a career-worst .199/.311/.241 in 167 plate appearances prior to landing on the IL due to ongoing neck soreness. Grossman has a solid track record, but the Tigers will also want to get a look at top prospect Riley Greene soon, and they’re giving Kody Clemens an opportunity after a nice start down in Toledo.

Behind the plate, the Tigers are probably content with Barnhart’s glovework and leadership. There was talk of a potential extension after he was acquired, but a .229/.263/.257 start might have tempered that. Backup Eric Haase isn’t hitting enough to force a change, and the Tigers’ Triple-A catchers are journeymen Dustin Garneau and Ryan Lavarnway. They have a well-regarded prospect at Double-A in Dillon Dingler, but Barnhart shouldn’t be in imminent danger of losing his spot at this time.

Maikel Franco, Nationals: Franco is probably only in this everyday role because Carter Kieboom suffered an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery, but he hasn’t done much with his latest opportunity. The former Phillies, Royals and Orioles third baseman is hitting .258/.284/.374 (82 wRC+) through 208 plate appearances. The Nats have an ultra-thin farm system without much in the way of third base options in the upper minors, and they’re clearly not winning anything this year anyhow. That might keep Franco safe, but if an even semi-interesting option presents itself on the waiver wire, there’s little reason not to take a look.

Corey Dickerson, Cardinals: Prior to the 2022 season, Dickerson had never been worse than five percent below-average with the bat in any full year (by wRC+). That’s all but certain to change now, as the typically steady lefty has posted an uncharacteristic .183/.238/.215 slash in 101 plate appearances. For a lifetime .283/.327/.488 hitter who was coming off a solid 2021 campaign, it’s a rather astonishing swoon.

Dickerson has been in a platoon with Albert Pujols at DH for the most part, logging only 110 innings on defense in the outfield corners recently due to injuries elsewhere on the roster. He’s also only on a one-year, $5MM contract, so if he can’t find his swing in the near future, it’s easy to see the Cards giving more at-bats to Pujols’ long-shot chase for 700 home runs and to young standout Juan Yepez. Dickerson is safe for now with both Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson on the injured list, but he needs a hot streak sooner than later.

Mike Zunino, Rays: Zunino’s career-high 33 home runs from a year ago feel like a distant memory, as he’s off to a .147/.193/.294 start in 109 plate appearances in 2022. He’s still drawing excellent marks for his defensive contributions, which the Rays value heavily, but Zunino isn’t even hitting against lefties, whom he’s handled well throughout his career — particularly in recent seasons.

Backup Francisco Mejia isn’t hitting much himself, going just 6-for-42 without a walk over the past month or so. Were he producing at the plate, it’d be more tempting for Tampa Bay to significantly reduce Zunino’s playing time. The Rays do have 25-year-old Rene Pinto mashing in Triple-A, and he’s made his big league debut already this year. As with the Astros, however, the Rays are in firm win-now mode and entered the season with World Series aspirations. If the in-house options aren’t performing up to par, the trade market beckons.

Austin Hedges, Guardians: Hedges has never hit and has always been one of the game’s premier defensive players, so his 2022 season is nothing new. Still, a .155/.223/.282 output from your primary catcher is just difficult to stomach, no matter how strong the defense is. Veteran backup Luke Maile has hit well in a tiny sample of 35 plate appearances, but he’s a career .208/.264/.317 hitter himself.

Prospect Bryan Lavastida got a brief MLB cup of coffee in April and is hitting .225/.330/.360 so far in Triple-A. His performance will bear monitoring, because if the Guardians are intent on pulling into the playoff picture, Hedges’ production might be too light to overlook. And if they end up selling at the deadline, Hedges could draw interest from a team seeking a glove-first backup option — which could open a door for Lavastida.

Red Sox Promote Jarren Duran, John Schreiber

By James Hicks | May 6, 2022 at 4:16pm CDT

4:16pm: In addition to Duran, reliever John Schreiber is being called up to the majors. Hernández and left-hander Rich Hill are going on the COVID list in corresponding moves. Neither Hernández nor Hill has tested positive, Speier tweets, but both are dealing with viral symptoms. Schreiber rejoins the 40-man roster after a brief stint as a COVID substitute earlier in the year.

9:35 AM: While Duran’s promotion may well still mean a substantial reduction in Jackie Bradley Jr.’s playing time — and perhaps the end of his time in Boston — it appears that the precipitating factor for Duran’s return to the majors is not Bradley’s poor offensive output but Kiké Hernández potentially contracting a COVID infection. Per an updated version of the same story, Speier reports that Hernández’s initial tests have come back negative but he continues to exhibit symptoms indicating a potential infection.

Hernández is expected to remain away from the team until his symptoms abate and the Red Sox medical staff is confident he is not positive for COVID. Players are allowed to be placed onto the COVID-19 IL without a positive test provided they are exhibiting symptoms or have been exposed to the virus. As the COVID-19 IL has no minimum duration, Hernández could return as soon he feels better and is confirmed not to be positive for the virus.

9:23 AM: After failing to keep pace with the Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays in the first month-plus of the 2022 season, the Red Sox may be preparing to shake things up. Citing unnamed sources, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that outfielder Jarren Duran will join the big-league club at Fenway Park for tonight’s series-opening game against the White Sox. The corresponding move is not yet known.

It will be the second taste of the majors for Duran, who logged a meager .215/.241/.336 triple-slash in 112 big-league plate appearances in 2021. He’s off to a blistering .370/.460/.574 start in 63 plate appearances at Triple-A Worcester, however, and Sox brass will hope he can provide a boost to an offense that currently ranks 27th (ahead of only Oakland, Kansas City, and Cincinatti) with a team wRC+ of 82.

Even were they to continue rolling out the same lineup, the Boston faithful could probably expect some offensive improvement simply from reversion of the mean. Four Sox regulars — Trevor Story, Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Christian Vázquez — have established track records of meaningful production and are not yet old enough for age to explain significant regression. It’s an ill-timed confluence of slumps to be sure, but there’s no reason to expect Alex Cora, Chaim Bloom, and Brian O’Halloran to do anything but watch and wait four those four to break out of their early-season swoons.

Much less likely to continue to see their names on Cora’s lineup cards are first baseman Bobby Dalbec (who faces from pressure from 22-year-old top prospect Triston Casas) and outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr., whose place Duran may well take as soon as tonight. After eight productive years in Boston (including an ALCS MVP performance and a World Series title in 2018), Bradley’s production cratered after signing a two-year, $24MM deal with the Brewers ahead of the 2021 season. He was traded (along with prospects David Hamilton and Alex Binelas) back to Boston for outfielder Hunter Renfroe just ahead of this offseason’s lockout, but his numbers have hardly rebounded. In 508 plate appearances between Milwaukee and Boston, the 32-year-old Bradley has slashed a measly .166/.239/.261, including just a .181/.253/.264 output this year; he’d slashed a much more palatable .239/.321/.412 across the eight seasons prior. These are, of course, hardly the numbers a team with championship aspirations expects from a regular, even one providing consistently high-quality defense in the wacky Fenway Park outfield.

As the corresponding move is not yet known, it’s unclear whether Duran’s call-up spells the end of Bradley’s time in Boston. Should the Sox choose to part ways with the beloved outfielder, they’ll remain on the hook for the roughly $8MM remaining of his $9.5MM 2022 salary, as well as for the entirety of the $8MM buyout of his 2023 mutual option. The team could also choose to send either seldom-used reserve Franchy Cordero (who has an available option) or one of the fourteen pitchers currently on its active roster to the minors. Regardless of what the move spells for Bradley’s future, though, Sox fans can probably expect at least a slight uptick in outfield production — just without a familiar face in the lineup.

AL East Notes: Mancini, Means, JDM, Marwin

By Steve Adams | March 25, 2022 at 9:26pm CDT

The Orioles haven’t engaged either first baseman/designated hitter Trey Mancini or lefty John Means about a contract extension, reports Dan Connolly of The Athletic. Mancini is set to become a free agent at season’s end. Means is controlled through 2024.

It’s wholly unsurprising, as the Orioles haven’t had an appetite for any long-term investments during their ongoing rebuild. Even the one-year, $7MM deal they agreed to with right-hander Jordan Lyles prior to the lockout was seen as a surprise, as the O’s hadn’t previously given out more than a $3MM guarantee to any free agent since hiring general manager Mike Elias more than three years ago.

Still, as Connolly explores, the lack of an extension and the seemingly inevitable trade of Mancini — be it in the next couple weeks or this summer — will be a wildly unpopular move both among fans and in the clubhouse. Mancini, the 2021 Comeback Player of the Year, was already a fan favorite in Baltimore before overcoming stage-3 colon cancer and returning to the field with a generally productive 2021 season. He’s also entrenched as a clubhouse leader in Baltimore. The O’s will start spending money at some point once they’re ready to emerge from what’s now a four-year tanking effort, but at the moment they project to just a $64.5MM payroll — $23MM of which is dead money still owed to Chris Davis.

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Grichuk, Cubs, Gausman, Matz, Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | December 3, 2021 at 2:25pm CDT

The Brewers had talks with the Blue Jays about a trade that would have seen Randal Grichuk head to Milwaukee in a straight-up exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports. This was one of multiple alternate Bradley-for-outfielder deals explored by the Brewers before finally acquiring Hunter Renfroe from the Red Sox on Wednesday.

While the Brew Crew had to surrender two prospects along with Bradley in that deal, Renfroe is both less expensive than Grichuk and has been a better player over the last three seasons — Renfroe had a 3.5 fWAR since the start of the 2019 campaign, while Grichuk has been worth 1.5 fWAR. The Brewers’ outfield mix now consists of Renfroe, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Tyrone Taylor, so barring any other transactions to shift some money around, Grichuk may no longer be on Milwaukee’s radar.

Brewers Acquire Hunter Renfroe From Red Sox For Jackie Bradley Jr., Two Prospects

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2021 at 10:32pm CDT

The Red Sox and Brewers announced agreement on a trade sending corner outfielder Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee. In return, the Red Sox are reacquiring longtime center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects, infielders David Hamilton and Alex Binelas.

It’s an out-of-the-blue swap pulled off just minutes before the work stoppage. Renfroe, 30 next month, is coming off a solid season. Signed by the Red Sox to a $3.1MM guarantee last winter, the former first-round pick emerged as Boston’s primary right fielder. He tallied 572 plate appearances and hit .259/.315/.501 with 31 home runs. By measure of wRC+, Renfroe’s overall offensive output was 14 percentage points above the league average in 2021, tied for the highest mark of his career.

Renfroe rated as a league average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. He tied for the league lead with 16 outfield assists, often showcasing a cannon of an arm that scouts have lauded since his days as a prospect. But both DRS and Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged his range as a bit below average, with the overall glovework coming out fairly middle-of-the-road.

Even if he’s not likely to win a Gold Glove, Renfroe is a capable right fielder who figures to assume a similar everyday role in Milwaukee. The Brewers lost Avisaíl García to the Marlins in free agency and seemed likely to rely on some combination of Bradley and Tyrone Taylor in right field. Each of Renfroe or Taylor could now spell veteran Lorenzo Cain in center field in the case of rest days or injury for the 35-year-old.

Renfroe steps in to upgrade that mix and add some punch to a Milwaukee lineup that ranked just 17th in slugging percentage this past season despite playing its home games in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly environments. He remains controllable via arbitration through the end of the 2023 season (barring changes to the service time structure in the next collective bargaining agreement). He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.6MM salary in 2022.

That’s a bit cheaper than Bradley, who will play next season on a $9.5MM deal after exercising a player option last month. Renfroe’s also coming off a far superior showing, as Bradley had a nightmarish 2021 campaign at the plate. Milwaukee signed Bradley to a two-year guarantee last offseason, but he managed only a .163/.236/.261 mark over his 428 plate appearances with the Brew Crew.

By measure of wRC+, Bradley’s offensive numbers were an astounding 65 points below league average. That ranked last among the 262 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, with essentially nothing going right for Bradley offensively. His strikeout rate spiked to a career-high 30.8%, while his walk percentage dipped to a personal-low 6.5%. Bradley’s six home runs marked his lowest total in seven years, as did his .095 ISO (slugging minus batting average).

To his credit, Bradley continued to play his typical brand of excellent defense. The former Gold Glove winner rated as twelve runs above average over his 915 1/3 innings on the grass. Statcast, meanwhile, estimated he was worth four Outs Above Average. Yet even a gloveman as excellent as Bradley isn’t providing much overall value with an offensive showing as poor as he had in 2021.

It’s not especially surprising the Milwaukee front office was looking for opportunities to upgrade over Bradley’s spot in the lineup, and they found one via his old team. While the Brewers will add an offensive upgrade, the Red Sox bring Bradley back to Boston in hopes that a return to that environment can unlock some of his prior production. Bradley was a fan favorite and generally strong player over nearly a decade with the Red Sox, first joining the organization as a supplemental first-round pick in 2010.

Bradley became an important member of the Sox’s lineup by 2014, spending most of the next seven seasons as a regular. His highlight-reel defense in center endeared him to the Boston faithful, and the left-handed hitter occasionally flashed potential on offense. His final season with the Red Sox was one of his best, as Bradley hit .283/.364/.450 with seven homers and five steals across 217 plate appearances during the truncated 2020 campaign.

The Boston front office will take a shot on a rebound at the plate while presumably installing Bradley back into the center field mix. Doing so would free up utilityman Enrique Hernández to play second base more frequently, with Alex Verdugo and top prospect Jarren Duran flanking Bradley on the corners. Of course, the Sox could look for future additions to the position player mix, with a right-handed hitting outfielder capable of complementing the lefty-swinging trio of Verdugo, Bradley and Duran standing out as an obvious fit.

Bradley’s contract also contains a $12MM mutual option for 2023 that comes with an $8MM buyout. The Red Sox are assuming a decent chunk of guaranteed money down the line in order to acquire a pair of fairly well-regarded young position players. Each of Hamilton and Binelas was ranked by Baseball America among Milwaukee’s top 20 prospects midseason.

Hamilton, 24, was an eighth-rounder of the University of Texas in 2019. He sat out that season recovering from an Achilles rupture he’d suffered during his junior year with the Longhorns, and last year’s canceled minor league campaign meant he didn’t play in affiliated ball until 2021. The left-handed hitter split his time between High-A and Double-A, hitting .259/.341/.419 with eight homers and 52 stolen bases across 459 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly given that impressive steal tally, the 5’10” middle infielder draws strong marks from scouts for his speed and athleticism, in addition to a sound approach at the plate.

Binelas, 21, was the Brewers’ third-round pick in last summer’s draft. Regarded as a potential first round talent entering his final season at the University of Louisville, he slumped through a down year that dealt a blow to his stock. The left-handed hitter did his best to put that behind him over a brief showing in Low-A after draft day, though, hitting .314/.379/.636 with nine homers in 132 trips to the plate.

A corner infielder, Binelas spent the bulk of his time in college and in the minors at third base. BA suggested midseason it looked unlikely he’d stick at the hot corner and projected his future lying at first or perhaps in left field. Binelas will need to hit to carry that profile, but he’s flashed power, plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills in the past. His strong showing in Low-A — while somewhat to be expected for a player drafted out of one of the top conferences in college baseball — is a strong start in that regard.

Altogether, it’s a fascinating deal — likely the final swap we’ll see for quite some time with a transaction freeze now in place. The Brewers lock in a much-needed lineup upgrade to replace a player they lost on the open market. The Red Sox improve a spotty team defense while bringing back a player who’s had plenty of success in their uniform in years past, taking on a fair bit of long-term money to also add some younger talent to the organization.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Jackie Bradley Jr. To Exercise 2022 Player Option To Remain With Brewers

By Mark Polishuk | November 3, 2021 at 4:34pm CDT

Brewers outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. will be exercising his $9.5MM player option to remain in Milwaukee for the 2022 season, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Bradley would have received a $6.5MM buyout had he chosen to decline the option and re-enter the free agent market. Bradley and the Brewers share a $12MM mutual option for the 2023 season that contains an $8MM buyout.

It was expected that Bradley would pick up his option in the wake of the worst hitting season of his nine-year MLB career. While Bradley’s numbers at the plate have always been somewhat inconsistent, his production utterly plummeted in 2021, with only a .163/.236/.261 slash line and six home runs over 428 plate appearances. Due to his late signing, Bradley missed the first month of Spring Training, yet that lack of preparation time hardly accounts for a career-worst walk rate (6.5%) and strikeout rate (30.8%).

The offensive numbers were poor enough that Bradley was still a negative-fWAR player (-0.8) even despite his still-excellent glovework. Bradley is a finalist for the NL center field Gold Glove, and looking to earn the award for the second time, after capturing AL honors with the Red Sox in 2018. For a medium-market team like the Brewers, $9.5MM is a hefty price for a defense-only player, even a stellar fielder like Bradley. It doesn’t help that the Brew Crew are also paying $18MM to Lorenzo Cain next season, another excellent defender whose bat has fallen off (though not to the extent of Bradley’s struggles).

If Milwaukee looked to carve out payroll space by trading one of the two, Bradley is probably the easier sell, if a team is willing to roll the dice on a rebound at the plate and is intrigued by the extra year of control if Bradley’s hitting does rebound. A significant chunk of Bradley’s contract is deferred, so in terms of pure dollars, the Brewers have only paid Bradley $3MM thus far, though the future deferrals could complicate any trade possibilities.

Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

By Steve Adams | May 12, 2021 at 9:12am CDT

Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His 10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

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