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Rangers Giving Jack Leiter Rotation Opportunity

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An 11-14 showing in August has slammed the door shut on the Rangers’ playoff chances. The defending World Series winners will spend the season’s final month evaluating their plans for 2025. To that end, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that Texas intends to give former #2 overall pick Jack Leiter regular rotation run for the rest of the year.

Leiter made his first three big league starts between April and the middle of May. The Rangers optioned him to Triple-A Round Rock on May 15 and had kept him in the minors until this week. Texas brought Leiter up as the 27th man for the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the White Sox. He tossed four innings, allowing three runs on six hits with two walks and four strikeouts.

In a procedural move, Texas reassigned Leiter back to Round Rock after the game. Pitchers normally need to wait 15 days after being optioned before they can be recalled to the big leagues. That does not apply to players who were temporarily added to the roster for a doubleheader. The Rangers can recall Leiter at any time and Grant reports that they’ll keep him in the big league rotation. His next turn won’t come until early next week, at which point teams will be allowed to carry a 14th pitcher on the active roster with the September expansion.

Leiter’s professional career has not played out as smoothly as the Rangers envisioned when they drafted him in 2021. The Vanderbilt product has struggled to throw strikes consistently. He walked upwards of 13% of opponents at Double-A in each of his first two full seasons. Leiter has scaled back the free passes to some extent this year, issuing walks at a 10.6% clip with Round Rock.

While he’s unlikely to ever have pinpoint command, Leiter still has intriguing stuff. He has punched out a third of opposing hitters over 17 Triple-A starts this year. He owns a 3.51 earned run average across 77 innings with Round Rock, an impressive mark in the Pacific Coast League. The 6’1″ righty hasn’t gotten beyond four innings in any of his first four big league starts. He has allowed 22 runs (19 earned) over 13 1/3 MLB innings.

Leiter clearly isn’t a finished product. It’s nevertheless sensible for the Rangers to give him a few chances to try to find his form against big league hitters. He has logged 254 2/3 minor league frames, all of them at Double-A or above. He’s 24 years old and already occupies a 40-man roster spot. Texas is wrapping up a lost season and will go into the offseason with a lot questions about the rotation.

Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney will be free agents. It’s likely that Nathan Eovaldi is also headed to the market. Eovaldi needs to pitch 23 more innings to unlock a $20MM player option. Even if he hits the vesting threshold, he could decline the option in search of another multi-year free agent deal.

That’d leave Texas with a rotation core of Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Jon Gray. deGrom and Mahle could be on innings limits after returning from 2023 Tommy John procedures. Gray has been on the injured list twice this year due to groin strains. He has a 4.32 ERA over 98 innings. Dane Dunning has an ERA north of 5.00 and has been in and out of the rotation. Cody Bradford has been limited to nine appearances this year by a rib fracture. Scherzer, Mahle and deGrom are all currently on the injured list.

GM Chris Young and his staff will undoubtedly add to the group over the winter (likely with at least two outside pickups). They’ll need some kind of emergence from their younger starting pitchers to supplement that expensive veteran group. That has not been a strength for the organization.

Former notable prospects Cole Winn and Owen White remain on the 40-man roster. Neither has become a key contributor. Winn posted an ERA above 7.00 in Triple-A last season and has moved fully to relief. As Grant observes, the Rangers also converted the 25-year-old White to the bullpen in Triple-A this month. White has had better results since moving to relief but still carries a 5.51 ERA over 94 2/3 total frames.

It’s not out of the question that Leiter’s command could eventually push him to the ’pen as well. That’s not currently on the table, though, and the Rangers will give him his first real opportunity against MLB opposition next month. That probably won’t be enough runway to guarantee a spot in the Opening Day starting five, but a strong showing could give him a chance to battle for a rotation job in Spring Training.

Leiter’s college teammate Kumar Rocker has returned from Tommy John surgery and has begun mowing down upper minors hitters. The #3 overall pick of the 2022 draft fired 19 2/3 innings of one-run ball in five Double-A appearances. He tossed five scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in his Triple-A debut last night. Rocker presumably won’t be in line for a big league call this year, as doing so would require carrying him on the 40-man roster all offseason. He could put himself on the radar for a promotion early in the ’25 campaign if he keeps on anything close to his current trajectory.

Rangers Select Shaun Anderson, Transfer Max Scherzer To 60-Day Injured List

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The Rangers announced they’ve selected right-hander Shaun Anderson onto the MLB roster. Texas optioned Jack Leiter back to Triple-A Round Rock in a corresponding move. To create a 40-man roster spot, the Rangers transferred Max Scherzer from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list in what is essentially a procedural transaction.

Anderson caught on with Texas on a minor league contract last month. It marked his second stint in the organization, as he spent a couple weeks in the system in 2021 when the Rangers claimed him off waivers. They waived him themselves before getting him into a major league game, but Anderson could now get a shot to make his team debut.

If he does, it’ll be the 29-year-old’s first major league action since 2022. He made one appearance for the Blue Jays that season. Anderson opened last season in Korea and finished the year in Triple-A with the Phillies. He has made four starts for Round Rock over the past few weeks, turning in a 2.53 ERA over 21 1/3 innings. The Florida product has punched out 26.2% of opponents against a tidy 4.8% walk rate to earn his way back to the big leagues.

Anderson has pitched in parts of four MLB seasons overall. Most of his experience came with the Giants as a rookie back in 2019. He has seen more limited action divided between San Francisco, Minnesota, San Diego, Baltimore and Toronto since then. Anderson owns a 5.84 ERA over 135 2/3 career innings. His 17.1% strikeout percentage and 9.9% walk rate are each a little worse than the respective league averages. Anderson has a stronger Triple-A track record, totaling a 3.80 ERA in 270 1/3 frames at that level. He still has an option remaining, so the Rangers can move him between Arlington and Round Rock without exposing him to waivers now that he’s on the 40-man roster.

Texas essentially had an open 40-man spot given Scherzer’s status. The 60-day minimum backdates to Opening Day, so he’ll be eligible for reinstatement in around two weeks time. It doesn’t appear as if he’ll be ready before then. While Scherzer once seemed on track for a mid-May return following his offseason back surgery, his timetable has been delayed by thumb soreness. Scherzer received a cortisone shot over the weekend to address nerve irritation.

The future Hall of Famer told reporters today that he has recently undergone imaging on his triceps, elbow and neck (X link via Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today). That came back clean and he is set to resume throwing. He’ll need to build back for another minor league rehab assignment, though, so he’s unlikely to be ready for MLB action before the start of June.

Rangers Place Dane Dunning On Injured List

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1:45pm: The Rangers have now made it official, announcing Dunning’s injury as a right rotator cuff strain. White was recalled and Leiter was added as the 27th man, as expected. They also activated outfielder Robbie Grossman, who they acquired from the White Sox earlier today, while optioning infielder Jonathan Ornelas.

1:30pm: The Rangers are going to place right-hander Dane Dunning on the 15-day injured list due to a shoulder issue, manager Bruce Bochy tells Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, who relayed the info on X.

It’s unclear how long the Rangers expect Dunning to be out of action, but it’s an unfortunate development for the team regardless as their rotation depth has been continually thinned out this year. The club knew that Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle wouldn’t be available in the first half, as both of them underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Then Max Scherzer required back surgery in the offseason, which was going to force him to miss some time as well.

Last week, Nathan Eovaldi landed on the IL due to a groin strain Cody Bradford due to a rib stress fracture. Now Dunning will follow him due to this shoulder issue. Between those two, Scherzer, deGrom and Mahle, they have a full rotation on the injured list at the moment.

That leaves Jon Gray, Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Heaney as the healthy core of the starting staff at the moment. José Ureña had been working out of the bullpen but started yesterday and threw five innings against the A’s.

The club has a double-header today, with Lorenzen taking the ball for the first contest. Jack Leiter is planned for the “27th man” and the starter for the second game, though Owen White is coming up as well, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today. White will seemingly be the corresponding move for Dunning’s IL placement.

With Dunning now on the shelf, the Rangers will have to decide on how they want to structure the back end of their rotation, with Ureña, White and Leiter presumably in contention for the two spots behind Gray, Lorenzen and Heaney.

Ureña has a 3.86 earned run average this year but, as mentioned, most of that has come out of the bullpen. He had a 6.45 ERA in ten starts last year and hasn’t posted an ERA below 5.00 since 2018. Leiter first major league start didn’t go especially well, with seven earned runs allowed in 3 2/3 innings. He has struck out 37% of Triple-A batters faced this year but also allowed six home runs in just 25 1/3 innings. White allowed five earned runs in four big league innings last year and currently has a 5.70 ERA in Triple-A this year.

Scherzer once seemed to be on track to return in early May but that plan has hit a snag. It was reported a week ago that he experienced some thumb soreness while on a rehab assignment and was going to be shut down for a bit. General manager Chris Young said today that Scherzer won’t throw again until the soreness is completely gone, per Wilson on X.

His rehab outing was on April 24, so he’s now two weeks removed from that. The longer his current shutdown lasts will presumably require more of a ramp-up once he is able to get back on track. As of now, that leaves him a question mark until there’s progress with the thumb soreness.

All that points to the Rangers cobbling a rotation together for a bit, until Eovaldi or Dunning are able to rejoin the mix. Despite the rotation challenges, the Rangers are 21-16 and half a game ahead of the Mariners for the division lead in the American League West.

Rangers Promote Jack Leiter

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April 18: Texas officially selected Leiter’s contract on Thursday morning. The Rangers optioned Grant Anderson to Triple-A in a corresponding move. To create space on the 40-man roster, they transferred lefty reliever Brock Burke to the 60-day injured list. Burke broke his non-throwing hand last week and will now be out of action until at least the middle of June.

April 16: The Rangers announced this morning that top pitching prospect Jack Leiter will have his contract selected to the major league roster and make his big league debut Thursday against the Tigers. Texas has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to accommodate the right-hander, whom they drafted with the No. 2 overall pick in 2021.

It’s an early birthday present for Leiter, who’ll turn 24 just three days after making his long-awaited debut. The second-generation talent is the son of two-time World Series champion and two-time All-Star Al Leiter, the nephew of 11-year MLB veteran Mark Leiter, and the cousin of current Cubs setup man Mark Leiter Jr.

The fourth Leiter to reach the majors, Jack hasn’t had the most straightforward path to the show despite his considerable draft and prospect pedigree. He annihilated hitters in college ball at Vanderbilt, fanning 41% of his opponents in two seasons prior to being drafted, but struggled with command following an aggressive assignment to Double-A right out of the gate.

Leiter walked more than 13% of his opponents and posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each of his first two seasons at the Double-A level but has been an absolute monster in his first three Triple-A appearances this season. In 14 1/3 innings, he’s punched out 25 of his 57 opponents (43.9%), walked only three (5.3%) and surrendered just 11 hits. Four of those, unfortunately, have left the yard and saddled Leiter with a 3.77 ERA that’s far less impressive than his overpowering K-BB profile would otherwise suggest, but it’s hard not to be encouraged by the strikeout and walk trends. That’s especially true given that Leiter also pitched 12 2/3 innings for Texas this spring and posted a much-improved 9.6% walk rate in that short time as well.

Texas’ rotation has been hammered by injuries. Jacob deGrom, signed to a five-year contract in the 2022-23 offseason, opened the year on the 60-day injured list after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June. Max Scherzer, acquired at least year’s trade deadline, required offseason back surgery to repair a herniated disc. Twenty-six-year old southpaw Cody Bradford was a godsend through three starts to begin the season (1.40 ERA) … until he suffered a lower back strain of his own and was subsequently placed on the 15-day IL.

Leiter will step onto a starting staff that’s in flux. Veteran righty Michael Lorenzen, who inked a one-year deal late in spring training, made his Rangers debut yesterday with five shutout frames over his former Tigers teammates (albeit with five walks against four strikeouts). Veteran lefty Andrew Heaney would’ve been on tap for Thursday’s start, but he’s yet to last five innings in any of his three starts while pitching to a 6.75 ERA. It seems Leiter will overtake that spot, at least for the time being.

That all points to a rotation that’ll include Lorenzen, Leiter, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Wednesday’s starter Dane Dunning — at least for the time being. It’s not clear how long a leash Leiter will be given if he struggles out of the gate, though one would imagine the Rangers are planning to give him multiple starts following his initial call to the big leagues. Manager Bruce Bochy and/or general manager Chris Young will presumably expand on the team’s plans for their young righty in the days to come.

Leiter’s 2022-23 struggles were enough to drop him off prospect rankings, meaning he’s ineligible for MLB’s prospect promotion incentives. He won’t accrue a full year of service time, given the lack of sufficient time remaining on the calendar, nor can he net the Rangers a draft pick based on his Rookie of the Year voting. As it stands, he’ll be controllable through the 2030 season and is set up on pace to reach Super Two status, granting him four trips through the arbitration process rather than the standard three. The first of those arb-eligible offseasons would come in the winter of 2026-27, though future optional assignments could yet impact both his free agent timeline and arbitration status.

Rangers Notes: Jung, Duffy, Rotation

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TODAY: The MRI revealed a minor strain for Jung, according to RangersToday.com’s Jeff Wilson and other reporters.  Both Jung and manager Bruce Bochy feel Jung will be recovered for Opening Day, with some slight disagreement on the timeline — Jung said he’ll miss two weeks, while Bochy feels Jung will be sidelined for three weeks.

FEB. 16: Camp only just opened this week, but the Rangers are already facing one potentially worrisome injury situation. Third baseman Josh Jung experienced discomfort in his calf while fielding grounders today and is headed for an MRI, tweets Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com. The club will provide further details once the imaging has been performed and evaluated by medical personnel.

Jung just turned 26 years old this week and was the fourth-place finisher in American League Rookie of the Year voting this past season. The former No. 8 overall draft pick belted 23 home runs and slashed .266/.315/.467 with sharp defense at the hot corner. Were it not for a fractured left thumb that kept him out of action for six weeks, he’d very likely have been a top-three finisher and could’ve potentially even given eventual winner Gunnar Henderson a run for his money.

At this point, there’s no indication the team believes the injury to be serious, though the pending MRI exam suggests there’s at least some degree of concern. The Rangers are relatively deep in infield talent, so in the event that Jung needs to miss any time, they’ll have options. Ezequiel Duran stepped up in Duran’s absence last season, and Josh H. Smith has ample experience at the corner as well. Veteran Matt Duffy is in camp as a non-roster player this spring and would give the Rangers a solid glove and contact-oriented bat at the position if he makes the team.

On the topic of non-roster Duffys, Matt isn’t the only one in camp. Veteran left-hander Danny Duffy also inked a minor league pact with Texas this season and could be an important depth piece for a club that will open the season with Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle on the injured list and all likely out into the summer. The 35-year-old southpaw hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since the 2021 season due to injuries but has been with the Dodgers (2022) and Rangers (2023) for the past two seasons while working toward a return. Texas used him as a reliever in the minors in ’23, but Kennedi Landry of MLB.com tweets that Duffy is building up as a starter in camp this time around.

It’s a familiar role for Duffy, the longtime Royals hurler who’s made 204 of his 234 career appearances out of the rotation. Aside from a brief dalliance in the bullpen in 2015-16, Duffy was a fixture on Kansas City’s starting staff from 2014-21, during which time he logged a 3.82 ERA in 1015 innings while punching out 21.3% of his opponents against an 8.2% walk rate. Duffy is now 35 years old and hasn’t pitched in the bigs since undergoing surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in Dec. 2021. He’s pitched a total of 42 1/3 innings in the minors across the past two seasons. Expecting a full bounceback to his peak Royals form isn’t realistic, but if he’s healthy he should be a legitimate option to help the staff.

Getting any contributions from Duffy or fellow non-roster invitees José Ureña and Adrian Sampson would be a boon for the Rangers. Texas is set to enter the season with a rotation including Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning and likely Cody Bradford. It’s a much weaker group than the World Series-winning outfit that finished out the 2023 season with Scherzer and current free agent Jordan Montgomery atop the staff. But general manager Chris Young has indicated he doesn’t anticipate any more additions to the big league roster at this point, strongly suggesting that the current group is the one the Rangers will carry into the season.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News takes a look at the in-house depth options that stalled out last season. Former top prospects Jack Leiter, Cole Winn, Owen White and Zak Kent all struggled in various ways in ’23. Righty Kumar Rocker, the No. 3 pick back in 2022, underwent Tommy John surgery last May.

That group was expected to produce some pivotal long-term rotation pieces, but each prospect has seen his stock drop amid poor performance and/or injury. Grant notes that Leiter, who was shut down for nearly two months last year to work on his mechanics, spent the offseason working out with American League Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray and veteran catcher Curt Casali. The trio all attended Vanderbilt (at different times, obviously). Gray worked with Leiter on simplifying his approach and his plan on the mound. Grant chatted not only with Leiter but also White and Kent about some of the changes they’ve made as they look to get back on track and contribute at a time when the Rangers will be leaning more heavily on internal pitching depth than at any point in 2023.

West Notes: Giants, Yamamoto, Angels, Leiter

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The Giants have long been expected to be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams after missing out on megadeals for stars Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason. While the club was still active on last year’s free agent market, deals for lower-profile players like Taylor Rogers, Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger didn’t save San Francisco from a 79-83 campaign that ended with a fourth place finish in the NL West this year. As president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his front office looks to turn things around ahead of the 2024 season, the club has been connected to plenty of top players this offseason, ranging from star outfielders Cody Bellinger and Juan Soto to reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell to even two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

One such star the Giants are known to have interest in is NPB right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who Zaidi himself noted the club has scouted extensively in the run-up to his posting late last month. Today, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle provided an update on the club’s interest in Yamamoto, who ranked as the #3 free agent in this year’s edition of MLBTR’s annual top 50 free agents list. Per Slusser, other teams interested in Yamamoto believe that the Giants “have an edge” in the sweepstakes for his services. Yamamoto figures to be among the most sought-after free agents this winter, with reports indicating that nearly half the league has interest in the 25-year-old righty. The Mets and Yankees, in particular, have been connected to Yamamoto heavily to this point in the offseason.

Even if San Francisco does have a leg up in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, a signing would surely require a major financial outlay. The righty is widely expected to secure the largest deal of any starting pitcher on the market this winter besides Ohtani; MLBTR has projected him for a nine-year, $225MM deal that would only be surpassed by the guarantees secured by Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg among free agent starters. That shouldn’t be a problem for San Francisco, which reportedly offered Judge a deal in the $360MM range last offseason before 2022’s AL MVP ultimately returned to the Yankees.

More from MLB’s West divisions…

  • The Angels have made significant headway in assembling their 2024 coaching staff under new manager Ron Washington in recent weeks, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests the club previously offered both former Pirates and Rockies manager Clint Hurdle as well as 21-year MLB veteran LaTroy Hawkins roles on Washington’s staff; Hurdle was offered a job as Washington’s bench coach while Hawkins was offered the bullpen coach role. Nightengale goes on to note both men are expected to retain their current roles as special assistants to the front offices in Colorado and Minnesota, respectively. That’s hardly a surprise, as the club has reportedly hired Steve Karsay as the new bullpen coach in Anaheim while bench coach Ray Montgomery will remain in that role for a third season in 2024.
  • The Rangers were open to moving right-handed prospect Jack Leiter at the trade deadline this summer in the right deal for pitching, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. The second-overall pick of the 2021 draft was initially expected to be a fast-rising arm who could impact the big league club shortly after being drafted, but the righty has struggled to this point in his professional career. While Grant notes that Leiter made some strides last season, he’s not yet ready to contribute in the majors and could be part of the return for a front-of-the-rotation arm, should Texas look to the trade market in their search for rotation upgrades this winter. While Leiter has a career 5.37 ERA across two minor league seasons, the 23-year-old ended the 2023 campaign on a relative high note with a 3.31 ERA and a 39.7% strikeout rate in his final four starts at the Double-A level.

AL West Notes: Angels, Leiter, Astros

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After a strong start to the 2023 campaign, the Angels have faltered with a 4-14 record over their last 18 games. That slip to fourth place in the AL West has been accompanied by a rash of major injuries to key players like Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Gio Urshela. Fortunately for the club, the tides of their injury misfortune may be turning. MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger notes that both infielder Brandon Drury and catcher Logan O’Hoppe have progressed to hitting off a tee in their injury rehab processes.

Drury, in a particular, seems poised for a quick return, as Bollinger adds that he hopes to return from injury “in a few days.” O’Hoppe is farther away, considering his initial recovery timeline of four to six months after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum back in April. Still, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register indicates that O’Hoppe’s recovery is going well, as he told reporters that his healing process following the surgery is expected to end next week, allowing him to focus on baseball activities going forward. While no specifics were given regarding O’Hoppe’s timeline for return, his most recent comments seem to leave the possibility of a late-season return on the table, which is excellent news given his status as the Angels’ top prospect entering the 2023 campaign.

More from around the AL West…

  • It’s been a frustrating season for the Rangers and 2021 second overall pick Jack Leiter. After his selection in the 2021 draft, Leiter entered the 2022 season as a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport. Since then, however, he’s struggled mightily when pitching at the Double-A level, with a 5.54 ERA in 92 2/3 innings of work last season that saw him fall off many top 100 lists entering the 2023 campaign. Things haven’t gotten better from there, as Leiter has posted an eerily similar 5.52 ERA in 15 starts (65 1/3 innings) this season. Leiter’s struggles culminated in the club moving him to the development list yesterday, taking him off the Double-A active roster. Per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today, the club hopes to work with Leiter on his mechanics in a more controlled environment than minor league starts can provide, and has offered no timetable for Leiter’s return to game action. It’s a deeply disappointing update for Rangers fans, as the 54-39 club would surely benefit from the front-line production Leiter was expected to provide when he was selected with the second overall pick two years ago.
  • While the Astros have not been shy about their desire to acquire rotation help ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, Astros GM Dana Brown recently discussed with reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) the club’s back-up plan in the event that the club fails to acquire a surefire starter for the rotation over the next couple of weeks. Brown indicated that the club would consider a second half call-up for right-hander Spencer Arrighetti to help supplement the rotation if reinforcements are still necessary after the deadline. A sixth-round pick in the 2021 draft, Arrighetti a 4.21 ERA in 72 2/3 innings of work between the Double- and Triple-A levels this season. While Arrighetti seems unlikely to provide the same impact a rental starter such as Lucas Giolito or Eduardo Rodriguez could offer, the Astros have managed to find success while relying on unheralded rookies this season, including J.P. France, Ronel Blanco, and Shawn Dubin.

Big Hype Prospects: Jones, Leiter, Alvarez, Chourio, De La Cruz

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll mostly focus our attention upon invitees to the Futures Game.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Jones, 24, OF, CLE (AAA)

108 PA, 3 HR, 4 SB, .311/.417/.500

Once on pace to debut during the 2020 season as a 22-year-old, several factors considerably slowed Jones’s ascent. First, he came back rusty from the lost 2020 minor league season, performing particularly poorly in May. He improved as the season progressed and could have arrived in Cleveland last September if not for a season-ending ankle injury in late-August. He also opened the 2022 season on the injured list while recovering from surgery for the same injury. The Guardians finally appear poised to promote him after a month in Triple-A.

Jones is best known for his plate discipline. Expect him to show the same discerning eye as Max Muncy. Jones has a little more swing-and-miss to his game which could manifest in a 30 percent strikeout rate. Whereas Muncy’s swing has plenty of loft, Jones skews heavily towards ground ball contact. He has the raw power to be a 30-homer threat, but his combination of grounders and infrequent contact leave him projected for only 20 home runs per 600 plate appearances. Although he’s always posted exceptional BABIPs in the minors, he can get pull happy. That could open him up to BABIP-killing shifts. Since his game revolves around walks and balls in play, anything that negatively affects his BABIP could also affect how he’s used.

Jack Leiter, 22, SP, TEX (AA)

48.2 IP, 11.10 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 5.36 ERA

Leiter was aggressively assigned to Double-A to start the season, and it hasn’t been an easy transition. Optimists can readily spot encouraging signs. He’s held batters to just 44 hits while recording 60 strikeouts. Unfortunately, he’s also issued 28 walks and hit five batters. Command isn’t expected to be a long-term issue for Leiter, but it is one he’s presently battling. He’s issued 16 walks over his last 19.2 innings.

Fortunately, the recent second-overall pick retains all of his glamorous tools. He features three plus offerings – a rising fastball, curve, and slider. He also has an underdeveloped changeup. He’ll represent the Rangers in the Futures Game.

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)

(AA) 296 PA, 18 HR, .277/.368/.553

With Adley Rutschman graduated, Alvarez is now the consensus top catching prospect in the minors. He was recently promoted to Triple-A where he’s 1-for-10 in 13 plate appearances. He’s the Mets Futures Game representative.

Alvarez is an advanced hitter. Already one of the youngest players at Triple-A, he features plus plate discipline and huge raw power. At times, he sells out for pull-side contact. His minor league batted ball data include low line drive rates which could manifest as a low BABIP in the Majors. That said, he’s on pace to debut early next season as a 21-year-old catcher, a developmental path which tends to lead to storied careers. His bat will need to carry what could be a below average defensive profile. While he’s not bad enough to move off the position, the Mets might opt to use him as a part-time designated hitter to keep his bat in the lineup while allowing certain pitchers to work with a better defender.

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A)

236 PA, 11 HR, 9 SB, .318/.369/.594

Chourio might be the next 20-year-old uber-prospect to debut in the Majors. He will be the youngest participant in the Futures Game. Only 18, he’s already performing impressive feats of strength including three home runs in July. Presently, there’s some swing-and-miss and overaggression to his approach, but not to the extent that either is a problem. We’ll see how these secondary traits develop as he climbs the ladder.

Since earlier this season, I’ve yet to hear or read any description of Chourio that wasn’t effusive in its praise. He’s the hip teenage breakout of the year. MLB Prospect Pipeline actually has him ranked ahead of 2021’s big teenage breakout, Elly De La Cruz. At least one other midseason update will also rank Chourio ahead of De La Cruz.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, CIN (A+)

268 PA, 18 HR, 26 SB, .302/.357/.597

Speaking of De La Cruz, fantasy baseball enthusiasts are undoubtedly drooling over his combination of power and speed. The switch-hitter produces some of the top exit velocities in the minors. He’s built like Oneil Cruz, albeit two inches shorter. The obvious flaws in his game relate to discipline and whiff rate. He could have exploitable flaws as he ascends the minor league ladder. However, we’ve seen other players with this rare athletic-profile improve their strikeout rate enough to become a superstar. Since June 28, a span of 34 plate appearances, De La Cruz has five home runs and a .387/.441/.903 slash. He might not return to High-A after the Futures Game.

Five More

Yosver Zulueta, TOR (24): Zulueta will appear in the Futures Game after already churning through three levels of the minors. His development has been slowed first by Tommy John surgery and then by a torn ACL. He needs to be placed on the 40-man roster after this season (or exposed to the Rule 5 draft) despite having faced only one batter prior to this year. A former big bonus international free agent, Zulueta could move fast as a high leverage reliever, but he might also have the stuff to start with a Spencer Strider-like two-pitch approach.

DL Hall, BAL (23): Since the last BHP, Hall has pitched twice. He’s totaled 10 innings of one-run ball including just four hits allowed and three walks. He struck out 22 of 38 batters faced. Hall is more than halfway to a career-high in innings. He might be seen as ready to get his feet wet in the Majors as a short-burst starter. Notably, his 5.77 BB/9 in Triple-A could be a barrier to starting long-term. Of qualified pitchers, Dylan Cease ranks last with 4.21 BB/9. Pitchers with higher walk rates don’t pile up innings. Hall will not be attending the Futures Game.

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson is the Orioles Futures Game representative. He’s also jumped into the Top five on the MLB.com Prospect Pipeline. He’s actually in his first funk of the season, batting just .133/.188/.167 with 15 strikeouts over his last seven games (32 PA).

Logan O’Hoppe, PHI (22): The Phillies have left O’Hoppe in Double-A where he’s batting .270/.383/.521 with 14 home runs and five steals in 256 plate appearances. His offensive numbers could be inflated both by Reading and a weak Double-A pitching environment. Either way, he profiles as a future big league regular. If the Phillies remain in contention in the upcoming weeks, he’s their one big, expendable trade chip. He might stay in Double-A through the deadline.

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): Like many pitching prospects, Harrison’s workload was carefully managed early in the season at High-A. Upon promotion to Double-A, he’s been making normal starts typically in the range of 20 to 24 batters faced. He’s on track to make his Major League debut in 2023. His mechanics offer an uncomfortable look. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a front angle. He has a floor as a high-leverage reliever, but he’s likelier to be used as a mid-rotation pitcher.

Rangers Sign Jack Leiter

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The Rangers announced Wednesday that they’ve signed No. 2 overall draft pick Jack Leiter. He’ll join the club on a bonus worth a bit more than $7.9MM, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). That checks in slightly above the $7.7899MM slot value associated with the selection. It’s also more than $1MM north of the $6.5MM bonus for #1 overall pick Henry Davis and seems likely to wind up as the top bonus in this year’s class.

That’s not too surprising considering Leiter’s pedigree. The 21-year-old has been touted as one of the likely top picks in the draft for more than a year and only reinforced that hype with a dominant season at Vanderbilt in 2021. In 110 innings, the 6’1″, 205-pound righty pitched to a pristine 2.13 ERA while punching out 41.6 percent of his opponents. His 179 total strikeouts tied with Vandy teammate Kumar Rocker for tops in the country among Division I hurlers.

Leiter entered the draft as the consensus top arm available. Each of Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Baseball America and Keith Law of the Athletic placed the righty as the best pitcher on their pre-draft rankings and among the five most talented players in the class overall. Leiter’s arsenal is headlined by a mid-90’s fastball with excellent life that plays above barrels at the top of the strike zone. His assortment of secondary offerings are solid, and Leiter has the athleticism and mechanics to project as an obvious starting pitcher. He’s polished enough that he should arrive in the majors rather quickly.

2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results

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The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced.  The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.

Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon.  This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.

For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections…

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
  2. Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  3. Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
  4. Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
  5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
  7. Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
  8. Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
  9. Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
  10. New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  11. Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
  12. Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
  13. Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
  14. San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
  15. Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
  16. Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
  17. Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
  18. St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
  19. Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
  20. New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
  21. Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
  22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
  23. Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
  24. Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
  25. Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
  26. Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
  27. San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
  28. Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
  29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
  30. Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
  31. Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
  32. Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
  33. Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
  34. Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
  35. Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
  36. Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)
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