Jack Flaherty

Latest On Jack Flaherty’s Market

By Nick Deeds | December 14, 2024 at 10:20pm CDT

Right-hander Jack Flaherty signed a pillow contract with the Tigers last winter, and it went just about as well as anyone could’ve reasonably hoped. The right-hander dominated to the tune of a 3.17 ERA in 28 starts with the Tigers and Dodgers and ended in Flaherty hoisting the World Series trophy alongside his teammates in Los Angeles. Now, he’s back on the free agent market and in line for a much more lucrative deal than the $14MM guarantee he landed from Detroit last winter. While the majority of the baseball world has been focused on Corbin Burnes in the days following the Winter Meetings when considering the free agent market for starting pitchers, this evening saw Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic discuss where Flaherty’s market currently stands.

One possibility Rosenthal suggests could be on the table for Flaherty is a reunion with Baltimore. That’s not exactly a surprise, given that a report from Rosenthal himself last week indicated that Baltimore is reluctant to pursue starting pitchers from other clubs encumbered by the Qualifying Offer, who would therefore require the Orioles to forfeit draft capital in order to be signed. While the Orioles’ top target has long been considered to be Burnes, who finished fifth in AL Cy Young award voting during his lone season with Baltimore this past year, Rosenthal suggests that Flaherty stands out as a “fallback option” for the Orioles should they fail to reunite with their current ace.

While Flaherty struggled in his previous stint with Baltimore, which came down the stretch in 2023 and saw him post an ugly 6.75 ERA across 34 2/3 innings of work, Rosenthal notes that Orioles brass understood Flaherty was gassed amid his first full, 162-game season on the mound since 2019. With other top free agents unencumbered by the QO like Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi, and Nathan Eovaldi all already off the board, Flaherty stands out as by far the top pitcher available on the free agent market who isn’t attached to the QO. That’s a big reason why MLBTR predicted a five-year, $115MM deal for the right-hander as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where he ranked eighth.

One other potential player in Flaherty’s market Rosenthal mentions is the Red Sox. While it’s unclear how interested Boston is in Flaherty at the moment, Rosenthal reports that the club “liked” the righty last winter before he signed in Detroit. Naturally, it will take a far more significant financial commitment to land Flaherty this winter than it would’ve last year. That shouldn’t be a problem for Boston, however, as they’ve been heavily involved in the bidding for top free agents such as Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Alex Bregman this winter and reportedly remain in the market for rotation help even after landing ace lefty Garrett Crochet in a trade with the White Sox earlier this week. A rotation fronted by a trio of Crochet, Flaherty, and Tanner Houck would surely be an enticing possibility for the Red Sox, and it’s easy to imagine them having interest in Flaherty if they have money leftover once the sweepstakes for Bregman and Burnes come to an end.

Aside from the Orioles and Red Sox, a handful of teams have been connected to Flaherty so far this winter. The Mets have previously been connected to Flaherty and have at least one opening in a rotation that could use a clear impact starter to pair with Kodai Senga. The Cubs made a big splash to land Kyle Tucker from the Astros yesterday and have remaining involved in the rotation market even after signing Matthew Boyd earlier this winter, though their interest in Flaherty is reportedly dependent on his price tag. The Tigers also apparently have at least some interest in a reunion with Flaherty, though it’s unclear if they’d be willing to outbid other top contenders and have since added veteran righty Alex Cobb to their starting staff.

Cody Bellinger Generating Trade Interest, Seiya Suzuki Trade Less Likely

By Leo Morgenstern | December 9, 2024 at 1:16pm CDT

Cody Bellinger is quickly becoming one of the most talked-about trade candidates of the offseason. Earlier this month, Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported that the Cubs were “determined” to trade one of Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic added further detail to that story today, noting that the team would prefer to part with Bellinger. Dealing Suzuki doesn’t seem like anything more than a backup plan in case no Bellinger trade comes together.

Sharma goes on to mention that there “seems to be real interest” in Bellinger on the trade market, thus pouring cold water on the possibility of a Suzuki deal (at least for now). Indeed, Bellinger has already been linked to the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Yankees, and Astros this winter, and Sharma suggests that the market for Bellinger could heat up now that Juan Soto has signed with the Mets. It seems the Cubs have been shopping Bellinger as a second choice for teams that missed out on the lefty-batting superstar. Bellinger is no Soto, but he can provide above-average offense from the same side of the plate and a much better glove in the outfield. He may not be a perennial MVP contender, but he does have superstar upside, even if his 2019 MVP season is getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror.

As for Suzuki, it’s not hard to understand why the Cubs would prefer to hold onto the righty bat. He is set to make $19MM in each of the next two seasons, while Bellinger will make $27.5MM in 2025 and has a player option for $25MM in 2026. Trading Bellinger would free up more payroll space for the coming season and would free the Cubs of his player option; as the name suggests, player options are inherently player-friendly. Furthermore, Suzuki is coming off a stronger season than Bellinger. While Bellinger is a better defender and baserunner, Suzuki is a more reliable middle-of-the-order bat. Bellinger’s offense has been much less stable in recent years. Thus, Suzuki looks like a bargain at $19MM per year, while Bellinger presumably would have opted out of his contract this winter if he thought he could do better on the open market.

For all of those same reasons, Suzuki’s trade market would probably be more robust than Bellinger’s. However, it doesn’t seem as if the Cubs are necessarily trying to maximize their return. Rather, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might simply need to create more payroll flexibility to address areas of greater need on the roster. After all, the Cubs have no shortage of outfield and/or designated hitter types in the organization. That includes center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, left-fielder Ian Happ, and top prospects Kevin Alcántara, Matt Shaw, and Owen Caissie.

What the Cubs could use more of is pitching. After signing Matthew Boyd, they reportedly remain interested in adding another starter (per Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic). Over the past few days, the club has been linked to free agent Walker Buehler and trade candidates Jordan Montgomery and Garrett Crochet. As much as they could use another arm, however, the Cubs might not be willing to pay for another starter without first removing some money from the books. On a related note, Sharma says Chicago has also shown “some interest” in Jack Flaherty but only if his price tag is low enough.

In theory, the Cubs should be able to sign a top-end starting pitcher like Flaherty without trading Bellinger or Suzuki. Their estimated 2025 payroll currently sits around $185MM, according to RosterResource. That’s $43MM lower than last season’s final estimate. They’re also about $40MM under the first luxury tax threshold, which should give them plenty of wiggle room even if they’d like to get back under the tax in 2025. However, Chicago’s eagerness to shop Bellinger and reluctance to court Flaherty certainly suggest that Hoyer is working under payroll constraints as he looks to get the Cubs back to the playoffs for the first time in his tenure as president of baseball operations.

Mets Interested In Eovaldi, Manaea, Pivetta, Flaherty

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 9:03am CDT

The Mets’ offseason has thus far revolved around their pursuit of Juan Soto and their attempts to reload a pitching staff full of free agents. Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana are on the open market and Luis Severino has already departed to sign a three-year, $67MM deal with the Athletics. New York has responded by signing Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to relatively inexpensive contracts, but the team could be looking at further bolstering the rotation with a bigger splash.

Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, and Jack Flaherty are three of the names the Mets have shown interest in this winter, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. Re-signing Manaea is also still a possibility, as Rosenthal/Sammon note that the Mets remain open to a reunion with the left-hander.

Montas signed a two-year, $34MM contract, while the Mets gave Holmes $38MM over a three-year deal. Given that Eovaldi has a lengthy injury history and is entering his age-35 season, his next contract isn’t likely to surpass three years in length, which fits David Stearns’ preferred method of giving shorter-term contracts to pitchers. MLBTR projected Eovaldi to land a two-year, $44MM contract, though it is easy to imagine Eovaldi landing more from the Mets or another team considering how many pitchers have already landed higher-than-expected paydays this offseason.

Despite his age, Eovaldi has remained a very solid pitcher, and it was just in 2023 that he posted an All-Star season while helping the Rangers win the World Series. The 2024 campaign saw Eovaldi deliver a 3.80 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates, and his 170 2/3 IP marks the third-highest innings total of his 13 big league seasons. The right-hander is no stranger to high-pressure championship games in big markets, and seems like a strong fit on a Mets team that has designs on contending for a World Series in 2025.

Flaherty won a ring himself with the Dodgers just this season, capping off a strong bounce-back season that saw him post a 3.17 ERA over 162 combined innings with Los Angeles and Detroit. The righty is now looking to translate that platform year into a big contract, and since he just turned 29, Flaherty is also younger than Eovaldi, Manaea (33 in February), and Pivetta (32 in February). However, that also means Flaherty is seeking a longer-term deal, with Rosenthal and Sammon figuring a contract of between four and six years.

MLBTR’s projection split that difference with a five-year, $115MM prediction for Flaherty’s next contract. It remains to be seen if the Mets would be willing to meet that price, or if Stearns is wary about giving such a deal to a pitcher who battled injuries and ineffectiveness from 2020-23. This isn’t to say that the Mets president of baseball operations is entirely adverse to longer-term contracts, though Stearns’ chief tactic has been to seek out “the next Flaherty” in the sense of looking for promising arms with bounce-back potential.

Re-signing Manaea is perhaps the most comfortable option given the Mets’ pre-existing familiarity with the veteran left-hander. There was plenty to like about Manaea’s first season in Queens, and he chose to capitalize on his strong season by opting out of the final year of his contract (worth $13.5MM) with the Mets to pursue a bigger deal in free agency. Interestingly, Rosenthal and Sammon write that at least one other team interested in Manaea has discussed the possibility of a four-year contract, which would be a bold commitment to a pitcher of Manaea’s age and somewhat inconsistent track record.

The qualifying offer is also a factor in the Mets’ pursuits. Eovaldi and Flaherty weren’t eligible for the QO and thus no compensation is attached to their services. Manaea and Pivetta both turned down qualifying offers from the Mets and Red Sox, so their next teams will have to surrender some form of draft or international bonus pool capital in order to sign either pitcher. This wouldn’t be an obstacle for the Mets in re-signing Manaea since teams don’t have to give up any compensation to re-sign their own player, but signing Pivetta would cost the Mets $1MM in int’l bonus money plus their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.

Boston’s decision to issue Pivetta was seen as a bit of a surprise, and it could be that being attached to a compensation package might dull Pivetta’s market to some extent. Pivetta is a durable pitcher with quality secondary metrics, yet he was more solid than outstanding over his four-plus seasons with the Red Sox, posting a 4.29 ERA over 633 innings. This might not be enough of a resume to move the Mets to give up two picks and $1MM from their bonus pool, especially since New York might already be giving away such a bounty if they sign Soto (another qualified free agent). Signing two QO-rejecting players would cost the Mets $2MM in pool money, as well as their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest picks in the 2025 draft class, so it doesn’t seem like the Mets would add onto Soto with another qualified free agent.

Orioles Reportedly “Reluctant” To Pursue QO Starters From Other Clubs

By Nick Deeds | December 7, 2024 at 8:33pm CDT

The Orioles made their first major splash on the free agent market this evening when they agreed with outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year deal. That signing addressed their desire to add a right-handed bat to the lineup following the departure of switch-hitting free agent Anthony Santander, who was their best hitter in the outfield against left-handed pitching. The club’s biggest need of the winter remains unaddressed, however: a top-of-the-rotation arm to fill the void left by Corbin Burnes when he elected free agency last month.

While the club has previously been connected to top-of-the-market hurlers including former Braves southpaw Max Fried, a report this afternoon from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic shed some light on the club’s strategy for this winter’s pitching market by noting that the club is “reluctant” to pursue qualified free agent pitchers from other clubs. That stance would seemingly exclude them from not only the Fried sweepstakes but also the market for Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta, the latter of whom they were previously connected to this winter.

There’s still a number of interesting free agent starters available this winter who don’t fit that description, led by a reunion with Burnes. Re-signing Burnes wouldn’t cause the Orioles to lose a draft pick beyond the opportunity cost of not receiving the pick after the first round they’d be in line to receive should he land elsewhere, but Rosenthal and Sammon suggested the chances of Burnes returning to Baltimore seem “remote” at this point given the possibility that the winter’s #2 free agent becomes the center of attention for Juan Soto bidders who fail to land the superstar slugger. For the Orioles’ part, GM Mike Elias made clear during an appearance on MLB Network Radio last month that the club would “love” to bring Burnes back into the fold for 2025 and beyond.

Should they find themselves outbid for Burnes, however, he’s far from the only viable option to improve the club’s rotation without forfeiting a draft pick. Rosenthal and Sammon describe both veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and righty Jack Flaherty as more appealing to the Orioles than a pursuit of Fried, Manaea, or Pivetta. Of the two, they report that the Orioles appear to prefer Eovaldi after Flaherty’s disastrous run with Baltimore following the trade deadline back in 2023, where he surrendered a 6.75 ERA in 34 2/3 innings of work before turning things around with the Tigers and Dodgers this past year with a 3.17 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 28 starts.

Eovaldi also figures to be much cheaper than Flaherty this winter; on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $41MM contract for the veteran while predicting Flaherty would land $115MM over five years. Rosenthal and Sammon also suggest that Flaherty figures to land a contract in the four- to six-year range this winter, and while they don’t comment on Eovaldi’s expected contract it’s worth noting that deals of that length for a pitcher entering their age-35 season as Eovaldi is are all but unheard of in today’s game, with Jacob deGrom standing out as the notable exception to that rule. Eovaldi’s platform season saw him pitch to a 3.80 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 29 starts that don’t quite match up to Flaherty’s performance, though the veteran does offer a lengthy track record of mid-rotation success that compares favorably to Flaherty’s up-and-down career in terms of on-field results over the past half decade.

It also seems at least plausible that the Orioles could look to get creative as they search for rotation upgrades. Rosenthal and Sammon report that Baltimore was among the clubs that had interest in right-hander Clay Holmes before he signed with the Mets yesterday. While Holmes has been a reliever for the majority of his MLB career, the Mets signed him to pitch in their rotation and Rosenthal and Sammon indicated that Baltimore would’ve done the same had they landed him, though some of his other suitors planned to keep him in the relief role in which he turned in a dominant three-and-a-half year stretch with the Yankees. While it’s currently unclear if the club would consider any other free agent relief arms for a move to the rotation, both Michael Soroka and Jeff Hoffman have received buzz as potential starting pitching options this winter after successful runs in relief in 2024.

Tigers Seeking Starting Pitching, Have “Some Interest” In Flaherty Reunion

By Nick Deeds | December 7, 2024 at 4:05pm CDT

As the Tigers look to build on the scorching finish to the season that delivered them a trip to the ALDS in 2024, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reported yesterday that the club is expected to target “at least” one starting pitcher this winter. With that being said, Stavenhagen cautions that the club is hoping to stick with short-term additions who can be had on one- or two-year contracts. Stavenhagen also suggests that the club could be hesitant to land a pitcher who received a Qualifying Offer this winter due to the associated loss of draft capital.

That doesn’t mean the club is completely unwilling to explore higher-tier options, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon reported this afternoon that the club has at least “some interest” in a reunion with right-hander Jack Flaherty. The early movement on the free agent market has generally been focused on hurlers who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation, ranging from lefty Blake Snell’s massive five-year deal with the Dodgers to smaller moves like the Angels’ signing of right-hander Kyle Hendricks on a one-year pact. Flaherty, who signed with the Tigers last winter and had a resurgent half-season with Detroit before being traded to L.A. over the summer, is the best pitcher remaining on the market who is unattached to draft pick compensation.

While pairing Flaherty with ace lefty Tarik Skubal at the top of Detroit’s rotation is surely a tantalizing idea to fans and would help fortify the Tigers after their surprise return to contention this fall, it’s also possible that they’ll simply look to sign “the next” Flaherty instead of pursuing a reunion; while Rosenthal suggests Flaherty figures to land a deal in the four-to-six year range, Stavenhagen notes that the club hopes to find a “high-upside” pitcher on the market who they believe they can help maximize as they did with Flaherty this past year rather than pay a premium for more established talent. Right-handers Walker Buehler and Michael Soroka as well as southpaw Andrew Heaney could be among the pitchers of that sort on Detroit’s radar this winter.

Stavenhagen goes as far as to note that Buehler could be the club’s “white whale” this winter, but adds that there’s questions about whether or not he’ll need to accept the sort of short-term deal the Tigers are looking to make this winter. That’s a valid concern, as Buehler has received plenty of interest from all corners of the league with the A’s, Yankees, Cubs, Braves, and Mets among the teams with reported interest in the righty’s services. MLBTR ranked Buehler 37th on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list last month while predicting a one-year, $15MM pact for the righty. That’s surely a price tag the Tigers would be eager to have him at, but given the widespread interest he’s drawn to this point and the hot market for starting pitching that has seen multiple players exceed expectations it wouldn’t be a shock to see Buehler land a multi-year deal even after posting a subpar 5.38 ERA in 16 regular season starts for the Dodgers this year. If Buehler’s market does end up running that hot, it could be hard to justify targeting him rather than spending a bit more to secure a more reliable asset like Flaherty.

If Buehler proves to be out of Detroit’s price range this winter, Soroka and Heaney represent two opposite sides of the spectrum for free agent starters. Soroka, 27, turned in a dominant rookie season with the Braves back in 2019 en route to an All Star appearance, a second-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting and a sixth-place finish for the NL Cy Young award. Since then, however, he’s struggled to stay on the field with just 46 innings of work combined between the 2020-23 seasons at the big league level. He was shipped from the Braves to the White Sox last winter and managed 79 2/3 innings of work last year while swinging between the rotation and bullpen.

His results were significantly better as a reliever in Chicago but that hasn’t stopped most interested teams from eyeing him as a rotation option this winter. If Soroka can build on the 2.75 ERA and 39% strikeout rate he posted after being bumped from the White Sox rotation back in May, he would be a strong addition to a Tigers pitching staff that has plenty of depth options but little certainty behind Skubal and Reese Olson. Casey Mize, Keider Montero, Jackson Jobe, Matt Manning, and Kenta Maeda are among the hurlers who could be in the mix for starts with the club next year but none have staked a firm claim to a rotation spot, leaving plenty of opportunity for an unproven upside-arm like Soroka to break into the rotation.

Heaney, by contrast, is a fairly well-established veteran arm at this point. The 33-year-old has been a more or less league average starter for the majority of his career at this point, with a 4.45 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.28 FIP in 851 2/3 innings of work for the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, and Rangers since the start of the 2018 season. While Heaney flashed some further upside in 2022 when he pitched to a 3.10 ERA (130 ERA+) and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances (14 starts) for the Dodgers, his subsequent two years with Texas have seen him revert to his solid but unspectacular work as a back-end starter: 307 1/3 innings of work across 66 outings (59 starts) during which he posted a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.34 FIP. While Soroka would be a high-risk, high-reward addition for Detroit, signing Heaney would offer a more stable solution for the club’s rotation who could reliably lessen the workload expected from the club’s other rotation options.

While Stavenhagen only name-checked Buehler, Soroka, and Heaney as potential targets for the Tigers, there are plenty of other arms who could be had on short-term deals this winter. Plenty of fans and media members have speculated on the possibility that the club could look to reunite with either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer in free agency this year. The two future Hall of Famers established themselves as among the game’s best pitchers in Detroit during the club’s last competitive window, and betting on one or the other to have something left in the tank in the twilight of their careers could be exactly the sort of short-term, high-upside gamble that Stavenhagen suggests president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office are searching for. Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana, and Kyle Gibson are among the other veteran starting pitching options expected to sign shorter-term deals this winter who could be plausible fits for the Tigers.

Players Linked To Union Discord Replaced In MLBPA Subcommittee Vote

By Darragh McDonald | December 5, 2024 at 10:37am CDT

Back in March, disagreements within the Major League Baseball Players Association led to a battle for power within the union that was often framed as a mutiny or a coup. At that time, three active players were connected to the overthrow attempt: Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito and Ian Happ. Those three were on the MLBPA eight-player executive subcommittee but none of those three remain after recent voting, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic.

MLBTR readers who want a full refresher on the situation can check out these posts from March. The 2023-2024 offseason was miserable for players, as various teams dialed back spending, often citing declining TV revenue as the reason. Several players signed contracts that were far below initial expectations, most prominently the “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger.

On the heels of that winter, frustration boiled up within the players and they eventually appeared to be split into two camps. One camp attempted to replace deputy director Bruce Meyer with Harry Marino, and it was suggested by some that executive director Tony Clark also would have been ousted in the event Meyer was replaced. Ultimately, those efforts stalled out and the Clark/Meyer duo stayed atop the union’s leadership structure.

Marino had previously been the head of Advocates For Minor Leaguers, the group that unionized minor league players. The minor leaguers were placed under the MLBPA umbrella, with Marino and Meyer then negotiating with MLB the first ever collective bargaining agreement for minor league players. Minor leaguers received 34 of the 72 seats on the MLBPA executive board, but Marino and Meyer reportedly did not get along, with Marino leaving the union at some point.

Though Marino was out of the union, it seems he was well liked enough in some circles that this attempt was made to install him into a very prominent position. Despite the frustrating winter for players, Meyer had made some notable gains for players in the 2022 CBA, his first in this role. The competitive balance tax tiers all went up, though a fourth tier was added. The minimum salaries were also raised in notable fashion, and a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players was created, among other advancements for players.

Regardless, the frustration was real and significant enough to threaten Meyer and perhaps Clark in the leadership structure, though they ultimately survived. Back in March, Flaherty seemed to express regret about the way things played out, though he also seemed surprised by the way Marino proceeded.

“There was one phone call that went on that I put Tony in a bad position in, where Harry tried to push his way through,” Flaherty told Ken Rosenthal at the time. “He tried to pressure Tony, and Tony stood strong, said this is not going to happen. Tony has done nothing but stand strong in all of this. That was something I would love to take back. I never wanted Harry to be in Bruce’s position.” Flaherty repeated that he was not trying to replace Meyer. “I said he’s not somebody to replace Bruce, but if you guys want to listen to him, we can continue this conversation. Things got way out of hand after that.” Flaherty then went on to compliment Meyer for the job he had done with the recent CBA.

The MLBPA votes on those subcommittee spots every two years. The union announced this week a new subcommittee consisting of Chris Bassitt, Jake Cronenworth, Pete Fairbanks, Cedric Mullins, Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Marcus Semien and Brent Suter. Semien and Suter are the lone holdovers from the previous subcommittee.

As noted by Drellich, the subcommittee is significant because key matters are often settled with a 38-person vote. Each of the 30 teams have a representative with one vote, and the eight subcommittee members get the remaining eight votes. Those 30 team reps vote on the eight subcommittee members. The eight players selected this week will have their positions for the next two years, which aligns with the end of the current CBA, as that agreement goes until Dec. 2, 2026.

All relations between MLB and the MLBPA have appeared to be contentious in recent years, from CBA negotiations to the COVID-related shutdown to on-field rule changes. The most recent CBA involved a lockout of more than three months and came perilously close to canceling games. On the other hand, the two sides agreed in the middle of the 2024 campaign to redirect some CBT money towards teams that had lost broadcast revenue, a fairly rare instance of a notable financial decision made outside normal CBA talks.

With another round of collective bargaining due two years from now, the possibility of another lockout is also on the horizon. The league and the union will have plenty to work out, including the ongoing broadcast uncertainty, the international draft and other big-picture issues along with the typical bargaining topics like salaries, taxes and revenue sharing. As such, the developments within the union will have notable ramifications for the baseball world.

Cubs Rumors: Rotation Market, Bellinger, Bullpen, Catcher

By Steve Adams | November 22, 2024 at 3:08pm CDT

The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and while Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that’s very much still the case, he also throws some cold water on the idea of Chicago making a major strike in free agency. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported less than three weeks ago that the Cubs planned to “aggressively” pursue starters who could help near the top end of the rotation, but Sharma now writes that the “top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out.” That would seemingly remove the Cubs from the running for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, at the very least.

It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.

For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.

Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.

There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.

Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).

The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.

Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.

All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.

It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.

There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.

Dodgers Notes: Hernandez, Flaherty, Kershaw, Freeman

By Mark Polishuk | November 2, 2024 at 9:24am CDT

Teoscar Hernandez and trade deadline pickup Jack Flaherty are heading to free agency after playing major roles in the Dodgers’ World Series triumph, and both players told reporters (including MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and SportsNet LA’s David Vassegh) that they would like to return to Los Angeles for an encore.

“My hopes are really high. Like I’ve said before, the Dodgers are the priority, obviously,” Hernandez said. “I’m going to do everything in my power to come back….I want us to be here. I want us to be part of this. I have so many good memories here. I’ve learned a lot as a player, as a person. It feels great to be part of this.”

“I love this city. I never want to leave,” Flaherty told Vassegh, with the words perhaps carrying a bit of extra weight since Flaherty was born in Burbank and grew up in Los Angeles. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Flaherty would give the Dodgers a hometown discount, though naturally playing close to home gives the Dodgers (and theoretically the Angels) an extra edge that other potential free-agent suitors can’t match.

It isn’t surprising to hear players on any team (whether world champions or not) express an open desire to re-sign with their current teams, and feelings could change as the free agent market develops. Of course, winning a title again underlines the fact that L.A. should be a contending team for years to come, giving the Dodgers even more flexibility in picking and choosing how they’ll construct their 2025 roster.

Re-signing Hernandez would bring another big bat back into the lineup and check off the left field question mark in one fell swoop. Though the slugger is entering his age-32 season, he is also coming off one of the best years of his nine MLB seasons, and he further showed his value with a big playoff performance. On the flip side, Hernandez would surely reject a qualifying offer, putting the Dodgers in line for a compensatory draft pick if Hernandez signed elsewhere. If Los Angeles wanted to give Andy Pages more playing time in left field or perhaps keep the position open for another outfielder (even a big name like Juan Soto), the Dodgers could opt to walk away from Hernandez and just view their one-year alliance as a total win for both parties.

Both Hernandez and Flaherty were looking to bounce back after shaky 2024 seasons, and Flaherty likewise answered some critics by posting a 3.17 ERA across 162 combined regular-season innings with the Tigers and Dodgers. The right-hander’s postseason performance was a lot more inconsistent, yet Flaherty was important simply because he was a proper starting pitcher within the injury-ravaged Dodgers’ staff. On paper, most of Los Angeles’ injured pitchers will be ready to go by Opening Day 2025, yet the team will surely look to solidify this group with at least one other starter to provide some durability as well as quality innings.

Clayton Kershaw is one of those pitchers with a murky health status, as the longtime Dodger ace is set to undergo a pair of surgeries on his left knee and toe. Kershaw pitched only 30 regular-season innings in 2024 due to bone spurs in his toe, his recovery from a shoulder surgery from last November, and this heretofore unknown torn meniscus in his left knee.

The southpaw has already said he is planning to pitch in 2025, and reiterated to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that “I’ll be back, somehow” for an 18th season with the Dodgers. This might not necessarily come to pass, however, just by Kershaw exercising his $10MM player option for 2025, as Kershaw might also look to work out a new contract with L.A. that would presumably give both gives some flexibility for the future. Several of the Dodgers’ extensions in recent years have involved tacking an extra option year or two onto a shorter-term deal, so it seems quite possible the club could again explore such a contract with Kershaw.

In other Dodger news, the end of the playoffs also acts as the time when players traditionally come clean about any hidden injuries they’ve been playing through in October. It was already known that Freddie Freeman was playing despite an ankle sprain and bone bruise, yet ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that Freeman also suffered broken costal cartilage in his rib while taking batting practice just prior to the start of the Dodgers’ NLDS matchup with the Padres.

The first baseman still played in four of the five games in that series as well as four of the Dodgers’ six NLCS games with the Mets, though Freeman was hitting only .219/.242/.219 in his first 33 playoff plate appearances. The four days’ off between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series provided Freeman with a chance to fully rest and reset, and he somewhat miraculously felt much better heading into Game 1, when he kicked off his World Series MVP performance.

World Series Notes: Rodon, Flaherty, Cole, Phillips

By Nick Deeds | October 27, 2024 at 10:52am CDT

While the big news from last night’s World Series game was the shoulder injury suffered by Shohei Ohtani, he wasn’t the only player dealing with an ailment during yesterday’s game. As noted by SNY’s Andy Martino last night, Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon was pitching through a blister on one of his fingers during his start last night, which saw him surrender four runs on six hits as he struck out three in 3 1/3 innings of work.

Blister issues can cause problems with a pitcher’s grip on certain pitches. In the regular season, it’s not uncommon for a pitcher dealing with a blister to be sidelined for a short trip to the injured list until a blister fades and they can resume pitching unimpeded, but Rodon downplayed the seriousness of the issue to Martino last night as he suggested the blister was “not a big deal” and that it won’t impact his availability going forward in the World Series as the Yankees look to fight their way back from an 0-2 deficit. Rodon went on to note that he’s dealt with blister problems before in his career, though this is the first time he’s had one this year.

Overall, Rodon’s sophomore season with the Yankees has been a bit of a mixed bag. The southpaw posted a decent 3.96 ERA (104 ERA+) and struck out 26.5% of opponents while making 32 starts, but he also surrendered a career-high 31 homers and has struggled to this point in the postseason. In 17 2/3 innings of work across four postseason starts, Rodon has struggled to a 5.60 ERA overall, albeit with two strong performances against Cleveland in the ALCS that saw him strike out 15 of the 41 batters he faced. Fans in New York are surely hoping that they’ll get that version of Rodon in Game 6 if the series if the series makes it back to Los Angeles, though for now the team will have to focus on breaking through for their first win of the series.

More notes from the postseason…

Rodon isnt the only starter who’s been dealing with a day-to-day injury in this series, as Dodgers right-hander Jack Flaherty dealt with some hamstring tightness during his start in Game 1 of the World Series, according to manager Dave Roberts. As relayed by the Los Angeles Times’s Mike DiGiovanna, Roberts does not believe the issue to be a serious one. That’s good news for the Dodgers, as the club’s injury-plagued rotation would have few options to replace Flaherty if he were to go down. The right-hander struggled through the division series against the Padres and the championship series against the Mets but looked quite good in his start against the Yankees as he struck out six in 5 1/3 innings of two-run ball. Flaherty is next expected to take the ball in a potential Game 5 on Wednesday, following tomorrow’s start by Walker Buehler and a bullpen game on Tuesday.
Flaherty’s opponent in the series is expected to be Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, and Martino reports that the Yankees currently intend to keep it that way as the club “has not considered” the possibility of starting Cole on short rest in Game 4 of the series if the Yankees are facing elimination. While Martino adds the possibility cannot be completely ruled out, it would be a major departure from the way Cole has been utilized throughout his career. The 34-year-old righty has pitched on short rest only once before in his career, during the 2020 ALDS against the Rays, and while he was effective in that start the Yankees may be less willing to risk his health now that Cole half a decade older and wrapping up a season that saw him miss half the year due to elbow troubles.
Turning back to the Dodgers, right-hander Evan Phillips was left off the club’s World Series roster amid a number of nagging ailments including arm fatigue as well as tightness in his lat, triceps, and biceps. Phillips discussed his situation with DiGiovanna in more detail yesterday, noting that an MRI revealed nerve irritation in his right shoulder. Phillips described the issue as “nothing majorly concerning,” however, and suggested that the decision to leave him off the roster primarily had to do with the fact that the Dodgers wouldn’t be allowed to replace him if he were to more seriously injure himself since he was already injured before the series began. Phillips hasn’t ruled out the possibility he could be added to the roster if another pitcher is injured, though Roberts has previously suggested veteran righty Joe Kelly might be first in line as an injury replacement.

AL Central Notes: Warren, White Sox, Manfred, Caglianone

By Mark Polishuk | October 26, 2024 at 2:55pm CDT

The Tigers had interest in right-hander Will Warren during their trade talks with the Yankees this past summer, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports. The two clubs reportedly had a provisional agreement involving Jack Flaherty relatively close to being completed before New York backed out due to concerns over Flaherty’s medical records, though it should be noted that Heyman didn’t directly say that Warren was part of whatever trade package the Yankees were prepared to send to Detroit. Flaherty instead was dealt to the Dodgers for two position players, one of whom (Trey Sweeney) ended up playing an important role in the Tigers’ surprising late-season surge to a wild card berth.

Ironically, Warren ended up making his MLB debut on the trade deadline day of July 30, and he posted a 10.32 ERA over his first 22 2/3 innings in the big leagues. He also had a 5.91 ERA over 109 2/3 innings at Triple-A, though his minor league numbers were a little skewed by a nightmarish four-start stretch in May. Scouts and evaluators generally view Warren as a back-end starter or perhaps a long reliever at the MLB level, and while the Yankees naturally want to keep pitching depth on hand, Warren could be a relatively expendable prospect in terms of future trade possibilities (with Detroit or any other teams).

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