J.T. Realmuto

Extension talks between catcher J.T. Realmuto and the Phillies have not progressed much since the two sides held initial talks back in Spring Training, Realmuto himself said yesterday at Phillies Summer Camp (Twitter link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). The free-agent-to-be made clear that he’s not frustrated by the situation and voiced his fondness for the organization. Realmuto’s assessment of the situation aligns closely with recent comments from general manager Matt Klentak.

“Candidly, we’ve been kind of nose to the ground — intake screenings and getting people here — so I haven’t touched base with [Realmuto’s camp],” Klentak said as players prepared to report to Summer Camp. The GM added that the “landscape” has changed since initial talks in early March but stressed that he’d love to sign Realmuto to a long-term deal.

Of course, that’s not entirely up to Klentak and his front office. Realmuto is the top catcher on the upcoming offseason’s free-agent market and quite arguably the top overall catcher in the game. He’s been open in the past about advancing the market for future catchers and figures to come with a substantial asking price. He may not be able to approach the total guarantees in record contracts signed by Joe Mauer (eight years, $184MM) and Buster Posey (eight years, $159MM), as he’ll turn 30 before Opening Day 2021. However, a record annual value topping Mauer’s $23MM over a shorter term would line up with that goal. The Cardinals guaranteed Yadier Molina $20MM annually for his age-35 through age-37 seasons. All of that will factor into the asking price for Realmuto and his agents at CAA.

As is the case with all financial matters in baseball right now, that’s where the uncertainty lies. Phillies owner John Middleton hasn’t been shy about spending in the past — see: the infamous “stupid” money quote from 2018 — and has dished out a nine-figure contract in each of the past two offseasons (13 years, $330MM for Bryce Harper; five years, $118MM for Zack Wheeler). However, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports reported in early June that Middleton projected more than $100MM in losses in an email to employees. His willingness to continue aggressively spending despite those unprecedented and previously unforeseeable revenue losses is the key factor in the ongoing Realmuto saga.

Notably, the Phillies do have some substantial money coming off the books this winter. Jake Arrieta’s three-year, $75MM deal came with a two-year club option that won’t be exercised. David Robertson’s two-year, $23MM contract seemed like a quality value for the Phils at the time it was signed, but he underwent Tommy John surgery last summer. His $12MM option will very likely be bought out for $2MM. Didi Gregorius is playing on a one-year deal worth $14MM, and Jay Bruce will be off the books as well (though the Mariners are already covering much of Bruce’s salary).

In all, the Phillies have about $113MM on the 2020 books. Next year’s arbitration class doesn’t feature many big names aside from Rhys Hoskins and a bump for second-time-eligible Zach Eflin. Odubel Herrera’s contract will expire after the 2021 season, creating further flexibility.

All of that would be critical context under normal circumstances. To an extent, it likely still is. But it’s difficult to tell right now just what type of long-term dollars Middleton is willing to commit amid these revenue losses. That’s true of just about any owner in the league at the moment, really; since transactions resumed, we’ve yet to see Yasiel Puig land with a team and haven’t seen any dollars given out beyond the prorated $700K salary that reliever Jared Hughes agreed to in his deal with the Mets.

Realmuto said back in May that prior to the shutdown, he had gotten the sense in talks with the front office that negotiations “were about to start moving pretty quickly.” As we’re all aware, though, early March in many ways feels like a lifetime ago.

The Phillies and pending free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto discussed a contract extension before Major League Baseball put a freeze on transactions in March because of the COVID-19 shutdown. That freeze lifted last week, but the Phillies and Realmuto have not restarted talks, as Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer relays.

Addressing Realmuto’s status Monday, general manager Matt Klentak said: “Candidly, we’ve been kind of nose to the ground — intake screenings and getting people here — so I haven’t touched base with [Realmuto’s camp]. As fas as a timeline, I just don’t know. I need to talk to them.”

Realmuto expressed optimism about a potential extension just a month and a half ago, but the game’s financial situation has certainly worsened since then. Therefore, it’s highly questionably whether any soon-to-be free agent – even a star like Realmuto, who’s regarded as the sport’s foremost backstop – will do as well on his next contract as he would have before the pandemic.

Klentak, for his part, acknowledged that the game has changed from a monetary standpoint in the past few months, saying “The landscape that we left in March is different from the one we return to now.” And while the Phillies would “still love to have [Realmuto] in red pinstripes for the long haul,” according to Klentak, he added that “there’s a lot of uncertainty in the game right now on a variety of levels. We just need to play that out.”

Before extension talks came to a halt, Realmuto’s agent, Jeff Berry of CAA Sports, may have been seeking a contract in the five-year, $130MM range for his client, Lauber reports. That payday – one that would average $26MM per year – would make Realmuto the highest-paid catcher in baseball history on an annual basis, surpassing the $23MM the now-retired Joe Mauer collected from the Twins on the mega-deal he inked in 2010 (Mauer, though, was on a much longer and more expensive contract worth $184MM over eight seasons). Whether that was a realistic asking price in the first place is debatable, but considering the sport’s less favorable financial circumstances – not to mention that Realmuto will turn 30 before the 2021 campaign begins – it will likely be even more difficult to obtain in the coming months.

Neither the Phillies nor J.T. Realmuto had been quiet about the fact that the two sides were exploring an extension prior to the league’s shutdown in mid-March. However, the roster freeze that was implemented back in March also prohibits teams from negotiating long-term contracts with their players, so talks between the two sides were halted. In a new interview with The Athletic’s Matt Gelb (subscription required), Realmuto indicates that the Phils had yet to present a formal offer, but he also speaks optimistically that a deal indeed could have come together.

“There was definitely a feeling that things were about to start moving pretty quickly,” Realmuto tells Gelb in a wide-ranging interview that discusses his mindset during the pandemic shutdown, the upcoming free-agent landscape and the league’s attempt to reboot the 2020 season. (Phillies fans, in particular, will want to read it in its entirety.)

The Phillies sent three players — catcher Jorge Alfaro, top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez, young lefty Will Stewart — and international bonus allotments to the Marlins last winter in order to acquire Reamluto’s final two pre-arbitration seasons. However, it has long seemed that the goal all along was to entice Realmuto to sign a long-term deal in Philly, adding him to a core group including Aaron Nola, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and Scott Kingery. General manager Matt Klentak has gushed about Realmuto’s importance to the club and had no qualms about labeling him the game’s best backstop — an opinion with which many onlookers would agree. It’s understandable that there’d be strong interest in locking the 29-year-old up for the long term.

Whenever the transaction freeze is lifted, the two sides will be able to resume negotiations. The Phils surely still have interest in retaining Realmuto long-term, but mutual interest between the two parties may be the only constant that carries over from previous talks. With a surefire loss of revenue on the horizon, there’s no guarantee that owner John Middleton will be willing to put forth the same number he might have under normal circumstances — or whether he’ll be willing to put forth an offer at all.

There’s also no telling how the looming uncertainty will impact Realmuto’s asking price and desire for stability. The catcher says to Gelb that the “top tier” of free agents “always seem to find a way” to get paid. However, the forthcoming offseason has the potential to be even chillier for free agents than the tepid 2017-18 and 2018-19 offseasons that led to allegations of collusion and set the stage for what should be an extraordinarily contentious wave of collective bargaining. (The current clash over player compensation in a shortened season only figures to exacerbate that tension.)

Given that owners are already seeking additional concessions from players who’d previously agreed to prorated salaries, it’s hard to envision many teams handing out lucrative multi-year extensions when the freeze is lifted — at least extensions that are deemed reasonable on the player side. Deferred money and backloaded structures might curb some concerns from the team perspective, but the wide-ranging economic uncertainty will complicate extension negotiations in an unprecedented manner.

Extension talks between the Phillies and star catcher J.T. Realmuto have been slow to progress. The 28-year-old (29 next week) lost an arbitration hearing against the Phils last month that set his 2020 salary at $10MM, although Realmuto made clear early in the arb process that he wouldn’t harbor any hard feelings regardless of the eventual hearing’s outcome.

If there’s a reason that talks have moved slowly, then, it could simply be the two-time All-Star’s asking price; MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported on the latest edition of the Big Time Baseball podcast that Realmuto’s camp has been seeking to top Buster Posey in terms of overall guarantee, adding that Paul Goldschmidt’s extension with the Cardinals has been another talking point (audio link, with Realmuto talk beginning around the 44-minute mark).

There’s a fair bit to unpack there. Back in 2013, Posey signed an eight-year, $159MM extension that was tacked onto his existing one-year, $8MM deal with which he’d avoided arbitration. Somewhat notably, that deal was negotiated by CAA’s Jeff Berry, who also represents Realmuto. Last spring, Goldschmidt signed a five-year, $130MM contract extension, coming out to $26MM per year. A six-year deal at Goldschmidt’s annual rate would put Realmuto just shy of Posey’s guarantee. Topping Goldschmidt’s annual rate by any more than $500K  over a six-year term would take Realmuto past Posey in terms of overall guarantee.

Of course, Realmuto is at a different point in his career than either Posey or Goldschmidt was upon inking those respective deals. Posey was a relatively fresh-faced 26-year-old who was fresh off a National League batting title and MVP the prior year in 2012. He’d only just reached arbitration as a Super Two player, and the extension bought out his remaining three years of arb in addition to at least five free-agent years (plus an option for a sixth). Goldschmidt was, like Realmuto, on the cusp of free agency last spring when he signed his contract. However, he was headed into his age-31 season, while Realmuto will play the upcoming campaign at 29.

Realmuto is both closer to free agency than Posey was and younger than Goldschmidt was, so there’s some parallels there. Likening him to Goldschmidt is difficult, though, given that they play different positions and possess different skill sets. Realmuto derives a good bit of value from his elite defense behind the plate, and while he’s an above-average hitter, he’s never been close to the hitter that Goldschmidt has been in his peak seasons. From 2012-18, Goldschmidt posted a combined 146 wRC+ and OPS+. Realmuto, conversely, has a career-high of 126 in both metrics and has only reached that level once (2018).

Over the past four seasons, Realmuto has batted a combined .283/.335/.464 (114 OPS+, 113 wRC+). He also ranks among the game’s premier backstops in terms of pitch-framing, caught-stealing rate and blocking pitches in the dirt. In that time, Realmuto has been worth 15.1 rWAR and 17.1 fWAR.

Historically speaking, it’s tough to find an apt comparison for Realmuto. Russell Martin (five years, $82.5MM) and Brian McCann (five years, $80MM) signed similar contracts in free agency, but both are more than a half-decade old. It’s also arguable that Realmuto is better than both were when they signed. Certainly, he’s younger than Martin was when he signed in advance of his age-32 season. But Realmuto is also decidedly older than either Posey or Joe Mauer was when signing the two largest deals ever inked by a catcher. (Mauer received an eight-year, $184MM contract from the Twins in 2010.) Realmuto seems to lie somewhere between the Martin/McCann and Mauer/Posey levels.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observed in the first installment of our 2020-21 Free Agent Power Rankings, Realmuto could very well become the first catcher to sign a $100MM+ deal in free agency if he’s unable to agree to terms on a deal. Whether he gets to that point will depend on whether he and the Phillies can find a middle ground and hammer out a new deal that’ll extend beyond his final season of club control.

Philadelphia’s comfort level in negotiations isn’t known, but a lack of progress would seem to indicate that the two sides aren’t that close at the moment. The Phils could certainly fit even a Goldschmidt-level annual value into the books long-term, though. They’re at $204MM in luxury obligations for the 2020 season but will see that number plummet to just under $119MM in 2021, when the luxury tax threshold rises to $210MM. An extension for Realmuto would largely be offset by the departure of Jake Arrieta, whose three-year, $75MM contract expires at season’s end.