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J.T. Realmuto

Poll: Should The Marlins Trade J.T. Realmuto This Offseason?

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Entering the offseason, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Marlins would trade their best player, catcher J.T. Realmuto, prior to the 2019 campaign. Not only is Miami a rebuilding team whose control over Realmuto is dwindling (he’s due to become a free agent after 2020), but the 27-year-old has shown no desire to sign an extension with the club.

At this point, a trade of Realmuto hardly seems imminent, but considering the offseason’s still in its infancy, there’s ample time for a deal to come together. However, in order for that to happen, the Marlins may have to lower their asking price for Realmuto, as Buster Olney of ESPN reported Nov. 16 that the Fish are seeking a “beyond staggering” return for the All-Star backstop. Since then, National League East rival Washington – a well-known Realmuto suitor – may have taken itself out of the sweepstakes by signing Kurt Suzuki to a two-year, $10MM contract in free agency. The Nationals could still try for Realmuto, who’d form an elite tandem with Suzuki, but there’s clearly less of a need for them to pay a bounty for a catcher than there was at the outset of the offseason.

Certainly, should talks between the Nationals and Marlins end or continue to stagnate, there would still be a slew of teams interested in Realmuto. As arguably the majors’ premier catcher, Realmuto would easily improve other prospective 2019-20 contenders such as the Astros, Rockies, Mets, Athletics, Brewers, Braves and Dodgers, to name some. As of now, though, the sense from other clubs is that the Marlins will retain Realmuto heading into next season, per Olney.

Because the Marlins seem unlikely to contend in the next two years, it’s fair to wonder whether they’d be mistaken in holding Realmuto this winter. In the Marlins’ view, Realmuto’s value actually increased in 2018, according to Olney, though it may be unrealistic on their part to expect a repeat in 2019. Even if the well-rounded Realmuto continues his run as a top-tier catcher next season, his diminishing team control isn’t going to do his trade value any favors. Plus, by keeping Realmuto, Miami would run the risk of a decline in performance and/or a significant injury – either of which would be disastrous from its perspective.

While many are tired of seeing the Marlins sell off proven veterans, as they did last offseason with Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon, they may not have a choice with Realmuto. Even after last winter’s firesale, the Marlins continue to feature a below-average farm system, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball America. Moving Realmuto would immediately better their outlook on that front, and if they’re going to trade him, it may be in their best interests to do so in the next few weeks. After all, with bona fide No. 1 options Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos headlining the free-agent catcher class, Miami could soon have two fewer suitors for Realmuto if it doesn’t act quickly.

Quick Hits: Realmuto, Mariners, Myers, Kia Tigers

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The Marlins have put a very high price on J.T. Realmuto in trade talks, which isn’t surprising given Realmuto’s status as arguably the best catcher in baseball.  Since Realmuto may never be as valuable as he is now, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) argues that Miami needs to swing a deal this winter rather than risk the chance that Realmuto is injured or has a downturn in production in 2019.  Some rival teams feel that Realmuto will still be a Marlin on Opening Day since the team is simply asking for too much in return, possibly due to a feeling that they didn’t get enough back in last winter’s trades of Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Giancarlo Stanton.  Olney observes that the Nationals already made a quick pivot to another catcher in Kurt Suzuki, which could be a sign that other teams engaged in the Realmuto talks might also explore alternatives unless Miami lowers its demands.

More from around the baseball world as we wrap up Thanksgiving…

  • With the trades of Mike Zunino and James Paxton, the Mariners have indicated that they plan to “step back” in 2019, as GM Jerry Dipoto told the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish and other reporters.  Divish explores what this strategy could mean for the rest of the Mariners’ offseason plans, particularly since Dipoto indicated the desire for a pretty quick turnaround, with the M’s theoretically ready to contend again as early as 2020.  This means that longer-term pieces like Mitch Haniger, Edwin Diaz, and Marco Gonzales are less likely to be traded, as Dipoto “would have to be blown away to move players like that,” the GM said, though “we are going to stay open-minded to anything with a general ’never say never.’ “
  • An alternative to this partial Mariners selloff is proposed by Buster Olney, who argues in another subscription-only piece that the M’s should go into a full-blown fire sale, a la the complete teardowns the Cubs and Astros underwent to rebuild their franchises into World Series winners.  Under Olney’s plan, everyone on Seattle’s roster would be available — he suggests Haniger could be shopped to teams that miss out on Bryce Harper, while an elite closer like Diaz has limited value on a team that isn’t preparing to immediately contend.
  • The Mariners and Padres discussed a trade scenario that would’ve seen Jean Segura and Mike Leake go to San Diego with Wil Myers coming back to Seattle, though Divish hears from sources that the negotiations took place over two weeks ago and don’t appear to be ongoing.  From San Diego’s perspective, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell looks at the pros and cons of trading Myers, who is the most experienced and productive (and expensive) member of the crowded Padres outfield.
  • Former big leaguers Roger Bernadina and Pat Dean won’t be returning to the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kia Tigers next season, according to a Yonhap News report, as the Tigers are reportedly looking to get younger.  Jeremy Hazelbaker and Jacob Turner were both recently signed by the Tigers to fill the international player roster slots formerly occupied by Bernadina and Dean.  Last appearing in MLB in 2014, Bernadina has performed very well in two seasons in the KBO, so it would stand to reason that he would consider signing with another Korean team if he isn’t interested in exploring a return to North American baseball.

Trade & Free Agent Rumors: Dodgers, Indians, Phils, Harvey, Goldschmidt, Brantley

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Always active on the offseason trade market, the Dodgers have been having “lots” of discussions with the Indians regarding a variety of potential scenarios, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Los Angeles unsurprisingly is intrigued by Cleveland’s pitching — as all teams would be — and Rosenthal notes that catcher Yan Gomes could make sense there as well. Conversely, Cleveland has a significant need in the outfield — an area of depth for Los Angeles. There’s no indication that there’s anything especially close to fruition between the two sides, and Rosenthal even notes that both clubs are chatting with several other teams. The Dodgers, for instance, are one of the many clubs with interest in Marlins star J.T. Realmuto.

Some more chatter on the trade and free-agent markets…

  • Carlos Santana’s name has come up on the rumor mill early in the offseason, but Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Phillies also have relievers Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter “on the block.” Reports since the team’s late-season collapse have indicated that the Phillies will be open to trading just about any player other than Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins, so it’s only reasonable that they’d be open to moving either relatively high-priced setup man. Neshek is owed $7.75MM and has a $750K buyout on an option for the 2020 season, while Hunter is owed $9MM and will be a free agent next offseason.
  • Heyman also tweets that in addition to the Reds, Matt Harvey is drawing some level of interest from the Athletics. Cincinnati’s interest in Harvey has been well-documented, as he won over some decision-makers in the organization during his four-month run with the Reds. As for Oakland, their search for rotation help is no secret. It’s unlikely that the cost-conscious A’s will be players for the highest-priced options on the free-agent market, making second- and third-tier options
  • The Twins checked in on Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com, though the report describes the talks as “preliminary.” While Minnesota has an obvious opening at first base following the retirement of Joe Mauer, though, Dan Hayes of The Athletic downplays the possibility of a Goldschmidt pursuit for Minnesota (Twitter link); Hayes notes that the Twins did make some form of inquiry but adds that this “doesn’t appear to be a path the Twins will go down.” The fit is obvious, but Arizona’s asking price on the perennial MVP candidate will be quite high, and he’s a free agent after the 2019 season.
  • Morosi also tweets that the Cardinals have “maintain[ed] interest” in free-agent outfielder Michael Brantley, although Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggests (via Twitter) that Brantley isn’t a top priority for St. Louis. Per Goold, the Cards would need to miss out on more preferable targets and perhaps move other pieces of the roster before embarking on a legitimate pursuit of the 31-year-old. Brantley is coming off a strong season in which he hit .309/.364/.468 with 17 homers, 36 doubles and 12 steals, but the Cards do have in-house alternatives and are known to be looking at bigger fish (i.e. Bryce Harper).

Latest On Trade Interest In Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto

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12:36pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that the Marlins’ asking price on Realmuto is viewed by other clubs as “staggering.” Though Realmuto has less control remaining than he did last offseason, he’s coming off a better year and the asking price on him has actually risen from last winter, per Olney.

9:54am: There are as many as 10 teams showing some degree of trade interest in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, who also notes that Miami’s lofty asking price isn’t likely to drop anytime soon. The Astros are one of the many teams in the Realmuto market, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links), but to this point they’ve insisted that either outfielder Kyle Tucker or right-hander Forrest Whitley be at the center of the return. Both players are considered to be among the 10 to 15 best prospects in all of baseball. Morosi adds that the Braves are “actively looking for a catcher,” but the Marlins would prefer not to deal Realmuto within the division.

Miami’s asking price in talks with the Astros somewhat mirrors their previous ask from the division-rival Nationals; Washington has been known to have interest in Realmuto for the past year, but reports have indicated that the starting point in any talks last winter was one of two prized young outfielders: Victor Robles or 2018 Rookie of the Year runner-up Juan Soto. The Nats are reported to be on the lookout for a catcher themselves, but the continued high asking price and Miami’s reported preference to deal him away from the NL East are both working against that outcome. The same can be said of the Mets, who are also in the market for catching help this winter.

The Marlins’ hefty asking price in Realmuto negotiations is perfectly justified, as the 27-year-old has improved with each big league season since debuting in 2014 and is now, arguably, the best all-around catcher in baseball. A lower back injury shelved him for the first month of the 2018 season, but he returned with a flourish, batting .277/.340/.484 with a career-high 21 home runs, 30 doubles and three triples in 531 plate appearances. Realmuto also halted a whopping 38 percent of attempted stolen bases against him.

A trade of Realmuto shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion, however. While agent Jeff Berry of CAA Baseball recently made a point to publicly declare that Realmuto won’t sign an extension in Miami and that he expects a trade this winter, it should be noted that Berry and Realmuto requested a trade last winter on multiple occasions — only for Realmuto to remain in Miami. But Realmuto does have only two seasons of club control remaining before he hits free agency, and it’d be perfectly defensible to take the position that his trade value will never be higher than it is this offseason. He’s among the game’s best catchers, if not the premier catcher in MLB, and can be controlled for two seasons at a total rate of less than $20MM. He’s among the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball at present, and any package for him should begin with at least one elite prospect and/or a young big leaguer Miami can control for the next half decade or so.

West Notes: Rox, Realmuto, Padres, Rangers, Mariners

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Despite the struggles of the Rockies’ catchers in 2018, it doesn’t appear they’ll be among the most ardent suitors for Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, Thomas Harding of MLB.com hears. It’s unclear, though, whether Colorado will make a less splashy attempt to upgrade over its current trio of Chris Iannetta, Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy, a woeful offensive group in 2018. Realmuto was the game’s premier catcher last season, on the other hand, but his refusal to sign an extension with the Marlins makes him a prime trade candidate. With two years of arbitration control remaining, Realmuto would bring back an impressive haul, but it doesn’t look as if it’ll come from Colorado.

  • The Padres are rife with major league-caliber outfielders, meaning they’re going to “have to make some decisions and calls on” that area of their roster this offseason, general manager A.J. Preller said this week (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Out of the Padres’ current group of outfielders, Cassavell classifies Wil Myers, Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes as trade candidates, adding that one of the latter two is likeliest to end up on the move. As right-handed sluggers with defensive limitations, Renfroe and Reyes offer similar skill sets, observes Cassavell, who notes that dealing one of the two would enable San Diego to move Myers from third base back to the outfield. The 27-year-old Myers, who owns the Padres’ second-richest contract (he’s guaranteed $64MM through 2023), saw his first real action at third base in 2018. Advanced metrics assigned Myers mixed reviews over a fairly small sample of appearances (36), as he accounted for one DRS and minus-5.4 UZR.
  • The Rangers elected to decline catcher Robinson Chirinos’ option for 2019 because of both the salary they’d have owed him ($4.5MM) and his defensive woes, according to Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram. Chirinos was one of the majors’ worst defensive catchers in 2018, but it was still a surprise that Texas let him become a free agent. After all, the 34-year-old did offer solid offensive production for the fifth straight season, hitting .222/.338/.419 (103 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 426 plate appearances, and exercising his option hardly would’ve broken the bank. Further, the Rangers don’t seem to have a full-time replacement on hand, as they’re not of the belief either Jose Trevino or Isiah Kiner-Falefa is ready for No. 1 duties, per Wilson. Texas is in the market for a primary backstop as a result, and though there are several established veterans on the open market, Wilson suggests Chirinos’ successor could arrive via trade.
  • Like their AL West rival in Arlington, the Mariners are seeking a starting catcher, having traded Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay on Thursday. With Zunino gone and the Mariners down to unproven 29-year-old David Freitas as their top option, Greg Johns of MLB.com runs down potential catcher acquisitions for the club. Considering the state of Seattle’s roster, GM Jerry Dipoto may attempt to trade for an experienced backstop who’s controllable for the next three to five years, writes Johns, who lists some potential targets in his piece.

Mets Rumors: Bullpen, Maldonado, McNeil, Coaching Staff

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There’s been plenty of attention centered on the Mets’ bullpen needs this offseason, and new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen plainly indicated yesterday that his team is in the market for “multiple” bullpen pieces (Twitter link, with video, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). “I can’t imagine we’d be looking to try and do a ’one and done’ situation,” said Van Wagenen. As for the type of reliever he’s looking for, Van Wagenen spoke in general terms — missing bats, controlling the strike zone — but suggested that closing experience might not be a big factor. In fact, it seems there’s no guarantee the Mets even plan to use a set closer in 2019.

“I think a lot of teams are going away from a traditional closer,” said Van Wagenen. “I think we had — in [Robert] Gsellman and [Seth] Lugo last year — a lot was asked of those two guys. They were about as good as they could be. As long as we can control their workload and not put them in situations that are over-taxing, I think both those guys can get outs at the back end of the game — the last three outs in particular. We’ll see whether other guys can be added to that mix.”

Here’s more from Queens…

  • In other Mets news, Van Wagenen says he feels the club is at least “covered” at the catching position, as Tim Healey of Newsday writes. That won’t stop the organization from looking at upgrades. In fact, the Mets have made a strong early push for glove-first backstop Martin Maldonado, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. It seems he’s the club’s top catching target in free agency, with Wilson Ramos of secondary interest. Meanwhile, pursuit of star Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto does not sound particularly realistic. The Fish are evidently not enamored of the top New York prospects, so there may not be a deal to be made. (What should Realmuto cost in a trade? Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs took a worthwhile look at the subject.)
  • Though late-blooming Jeff McNeil’s MLB audition lasted just over two months last season, he looks to have done enough to assure himself a spot in next year’s lineup. Van Wagenen said at this week’s GM Meetings that McNeil is “penciled in” as the team’s everyday second baseman for the 2019 season (Twitter link via Healey). McNeil opened eyes with a .329/.381/.471 slash through 248 plate appearances, and while he only homered three times in 63 games, he also hit 11 doubles and racked up six triples in that time. Most encouraging of all, perhaps, was the infielder’s minuscule 9.7 percent strikeout rate. Even if his .359 average on balls in play regresses, as one would expect, McNeil’s knack for putting the ball in play should help him hit for a quality average and get on base at a solid clip.
  • The Mets have some coaching vacancies to fill, including hitting coach and bench coach. Puma tweets that former D-backs hitting coach Dave Magadan is among the Mets’ candidates to replace Pat Roessler at that position, while Matt Ehalt of the North Jersey Bergen Record tweets that former Cubs/Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis could also be in the mix. Meanwhile, Jim Riggleman, who recently left the Reds after being passed over for their managerial vacancy, is a candidate to take over as Mickey Callaway’s bench coach, Ehalt adds.

Nationals Notes: Rendon, Catcher, Second Base, Payroll

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Though there’s plenty of focus on the Nationals’ reported $300MM extension offer to Bryce Harper late in the season — which the outfielder passed up in order to test free agency — the Nats have also looked at the possibility of an extension for fellow star Anthony Rendon, per Jesse Dougherty and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Nats GM Mike Rizzo said yesterday that the club has “made efforts” to extend Rendon before he reaches free agency next offseason. Rendon, like Harper, is represented by Scott Boras and figures to have a jarring asking price of his own, though that specific number isn’t known. Of note, Rizzo adds that he doesn’t believe the two contract situations are contingent upon each other, and Dougherty notes that the GM believes the payroll could support a new contract for both players.

More Nats chatter…

  • Janes quotes Rizzo in suggesting that the Nationals are looking to add a “frontline catcher” to the roster for the 2019 campaign — that is, one who can catch 120-plus games (Twitter link). It’s only natural that J.T. Realmuto’s name will continue to be tied to the Nationals, given the extensive interest they’ve reportedly shown in him over the past 12 months. They’ll presumably have to explore alternatives, though, as Rizzo himself noted that they’ve been talking about Realmuto for a year without a trade to show for it. (Past reports have indicated that the Marlins asked for Juan Soto and/or Victor Robles in negotiations.)
  • Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos are the top catchers on the free-agent market (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link), though if the club is specifically looking for a catcher who can handle roughly 75 percent of the team’s games in 2019 and beyond, then Ramos may not be a great fit. He’s a fan favorite in Washington, but he’s also suffered a pair of ACL tears in his career and was limited to 96 games behind the plate this past season between the Rays and Phillies. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd took a further look at the offseason market for catchers as part of MLBTR’s Market Snapshot series.
  • Meanwhile, Dougherty tweets that Rizzo said he’s comfortable with Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Difo at second base for the time being and doesn’t view an upgrade at the position to be a top offseason priority. A ruptured Achilles tendon cost Kendrick the final four and a half months of the 2018 campaign, but the 35-year-old has been undeniably productive in parts of two seasons with the organization. In 338 plate appearances as a National, Kendrick has slashed .297/.337/.484. It’s anyone’s guess how he effective he’ll be in his return from a major injury suffered in his mid-30s, however, and Difo didn’t give much reason for optimism this past season. The switch-hitter managed just a .230/.298/.350 line in 456 plate appearances. He’ll turn 27 in April. If the Nats do look to add, they’ll have no shortage of options, though (Free Agent Tracker link; Market Snapshot at second base)
  • Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com takes a look at the Nationals’ payroll commitments in an effort to determine how much the club can realistically add to the books in terms of 2019 salary. With roughly $168MM already lined up for next season via seven guaranteed contracts, seven arbitration projections and another 11 pre-arb players, the Nats are about $13MM shy of their 2018 payroll at present. Zuckerman points out that the team’s payroll has increased for 11 consecutive seasons but also notes that ownership could want to steer clear of a third consecutive foray into luxury tax territory. He projects a rough estimate of $20-30MM that could be added while staying under that barrier, though certainly trades and non-tenders present avenues to add further flexibility. Importantly, too, that $168MM-ish figure includes larger-than-average salary outlays for Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer. From a cash perspective, most of what’s owed those two pitchers is deferred; as regards the luxury tax, the AAV on those deals is lower — thus leaving something in the realm of $10MM of added cushion. Just how the Nats’ top decisionmakers view the payroll situation isn’t entirely clear.

Brodie Van Wagenen On Mets’ Offseason Roster Plans

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New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen has given every indication that the organization will push to contend right away. He also rather notably suggested that the Mets would not shy away from adding through the free agent market. What remains unclear, however, is the club’s plan to pay for new additions. The New York org has opened each of the past two campaigns with $150MM or so in payroll. With arb money factored in for 2019, there isn’t much of a gap between the team’s existing commitments and its recent levels of spending. Addressing the media again yesterday, Van Wagenen was non-committal about the financial expectations, as Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. While he reiterated that the Mets don’t see any free agents as being off limits, he also stated that the subject of payroll has not even been broached in detail with ownership.

Needless to say, that’s a bit of a curious statement given that the offseason is at hand. Here’s more from Van Wagenen’s chat:

  • Catching is one area of some focus for the Mets, and it seems that Van Wagenen is contemplating some maneuvering with his options behind the dish. As Mike Puma of the New York Post covers on Twitter, Van Wagenen indicated that the club is drawing interest in its existing fleet of backstops — including, it seems, the Tommy John rehabbing Travis d’Arnaud. Despite his evident talent, the 29-year-old backstop has rarely stayed healthy or produced consistently. He projects to earn $3.7MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility. That seems like a fairly hefty rate of pay, but Van Wagenen indicated the Mets could tender d’Arnaud and then deal him. While Van Wagenen says d’Arnaud will “hopefully” be ready to play, as DiComo adds on Twitter, there are still no assurances that he’ll be tendered.
  • In terms of catching targets, Tim Healey of Newsday tweets that Van Wagenen spoke well of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, though he hardly gave any clear indication that there’ll be a pursuit. Realmuto figures to draw strong interest from a variety of contenders, and it’s frankly somewhat difficult to see the Mets coming away with him. There are certainly plenty of other possibilities, of course. We broke down the broader market situation about a month ago in our Market Snapshot series.
  • As for infielder Wilmer Flores, another player with a questionable arbitration situation, Van Wagenen also walked a fine line. As DiComo tweets, the new GM did not say definitively that Flores will be tendered — which would cost a projected $4.7MM. But Van Wagenen seemingly spoke in terms that suggest Flores is in the organization’s plans. “I think he should be healthy and ready to go,” Van Wagenen said of the 27-year-old Flores, “and we will be counting on him. … He’s had a long track record of performing against left-handed pitching.”
  • The win-now mantra in Queens will also extend to prospect promotions, it seems. As DiComo covers, Van Wagenen made clear he won’t keep down Mets first base prospect Peter Alonso to open the year if he shows he deserves a roster spot. While no executive would admit to playing with service time with a top prospect, Van Wagenen went further in discussing one of the club’s best-regarded youngsters, who he labeled a potential “impact player.” Van Wagenen says that the Mets want “to put the best 25 guys on the field” and notes that “the wins in April are just as important as the wins in September.”
  • Meanwhile, Van Wagenen also gave a recent update on QB-turned-TV analyst-turned minor-leaguer Tim Tebow. As DiComo writes, the new Mets exec — who was most recently an agent who repped Tebow and quite a few other Mets players — gave rather an optimistic take on the former Heisman winner’s chances. Tebow, he says, will likely open the 2018 season at Triple-A but could even be considered for the MLB roster “if he wows us.”

Market Notes: Richards, Kikuchi, Rockies, Realmuto

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Our predictions at the top of the free agent market are certainly not for the faint of heart; by our reckoning, both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have chances at securing record-setting contracts. Whether or not that’ll come to pass remains to be seen, but a more pressing question for hot-stove enthusiasts may be whether we’ll see a repeat of last winter’s agonizingly slow market. It seems fair to say our overall slate of predictions represents a general bet that the activity will pick up this time around. Indeed, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that there’s a broader sense that the 2018-19 offseason will feature action. The player market, he says, could be “robust early” and “awfully busy” all winter long.

We heard earlier about some intriguing possibilities in Cleveland. For the most part, though, things are just starting to get heated up. Here’s some early chatter:

  • While Garrett Richards will hit the market while still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, that doesn’t mean he won’t draw strong interest. Indeed, a dozen teams have already reached out, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). It’s no surprise to hear that, as quite a variety of clubs have agreed to two-year contractual arrangements with recovering hurlers in recent seasons, primarily in hopes of capturing value in the second season of the deal. MLBTR predicts that Richards will land a deal right in line with some of those cases.
  • The Dodgers factor as a strong possible suitor for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. It’s hard to argue with that assessment based upon recent history, even if the Los Angeles club seems to be well on its way to filling out a deep rotation mix. The Dodgers have secured several talented but less-hyped starters from Asia via the posting process and have given out several large deals to pitchers with injury questions. In this case, Kikuchi figures to draw a number of suitors, particularly since he’s just 27 years of age. But recent shoulder woes could be a red flag for some organizations. Truthfully, it’s exceedingly difficult to get a read on his potential market, but the Dodgers are among the west coast organizations that seem to be rather good fits if Kikuch is posted, as seems likely but has yet to be decided conclusively.
  • As the offseason gets underway, the Rockies represent a bit of a mystery team. They obviously look to be a contender, but have some clear needs and don’t appear to have much payroll flexibility barring a boost in their spending or clever move to shed salary. GM Jeff Bridich said today, as Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets, that the club will seek to oversee “responsible growth with the payroll,” adding that “success begets more growth.” That seems at least to leave open the possibility that the organization could add some more dollars to the books, though what kind of outlay might be possible remains unclear. Improving a lagging offense is the priority, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes.
  • While the Marlins have given prior indication that they hoped to pursue a long-term deal with catcher J.T. Realmuto, his agent shot that idea down rather candidly, indicating that he does not expect his client to don a Marlins uniform in 2019. That hasn’t deterred the Miami brass, though, as Wells Dusenbury of the Sun Sentinel was among those to cover (Twitter links). CEO Derek Jeter rejoined recently that the Miami organization will decide where Realmuto plays. Today, president of baseball operations Michael Hill says that Realmuto’s apparent preferences won’t “impact in any way how we approach our offseason.” Of course, it still seems quite likely that the Marlins will end up marketing Realmuto this winter, as his value has undeniably crested after turning in a strong season with two more arb years left to go.

Agent: Realmuto “Is Not Going To Sign An Extension In Miami”

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While the Marlins have previously made it clear that they hoped to discuss a long-term contract with star catcher J.T. Realmuto this offseason, it sounds like Realmuto’s camp has other ideas. In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today (Twitter link, with audio), agent Jeff Berry of CAA Baseball told host Scott Braun that Realmuto “has informed the Marlins’ ownership, he’s informed their front office he’s not going to sign an extension in Miami.” Berry also indicated that he thinks Realmuto “will definitely be wearing a different uniform” by Spring Training 2019.

That, it should be stressed, still doesn’t mean Realmuto will be traded this offseason. He was among the most coveted trade assets in baseball last winter and remained with the Marlins, even after Berry publicly requested that the Miami front office trade his client. Fresh off a terrific season in which he batted .277/.340/.484 with 21 homers and 30 doubles, Realmuto will once again be in high demand. He’s projected to earn $6.1MM via arbitration, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and he’s controlled through the 2020 season.

Adding Realmuto would be a transformative move for a number of hopeful contenders. The Dodgers and Phillies are set to lose Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos to free agency, while the Nationals have a clear vacancy behind the dish after a disappointing two-year deal with Matt Wieters has now reached its conclusion. The Astros, meanwhile, will bid adieu to Brian McCann, and the Rockies have had issues behind the plate for the past several seasons. Atlanta recently extended Tyler Flowers through 2019 but will see Kurt Suzuki reach free agency this weekend. The World Series champion Red Sox, meanwhile, received underwhelming production from the trio of Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez and seldom-used Blake Swihart. Milwaukee could surely look to upgrade over Manny Pina and already pulled off one blockbuster with the Marlins (Christian Yelich). The Angels and Athletics have little in the way of immediately ready catching options in the organizations, and the Twins could use an upgrade behind the dish as well.

Frankly, even hopeful contenders with established options behind the dish are likely to inquire on Realmuto, as he’d be an upgrade over the vast majority of backstops in the league. Only Grandal and Salvador Perez hit more home runs than Realmuto, while only Ramos turned in a wRC+ mark greater than Realmuto’s 127 (that is to say, Realmuto produced at a rate roughly 27 percent better than a league-average hitter after adjusting for his league and home ballpark). The average MLB catcher’s offense, conversely, was 16 percent worse than that of a league-average hitter by that same measure.

The Marlins could opt to hang onto Realmuto and enjoy another season of excellent production from one of the game’s best young backstops. But the concrete affirmation from his agent that there will be no extension talks does figure to once again stoke the flames, so to speak, when it comes to trade interest in Realmuto. Given the sheer volume of contending clubs who could use help behind the plate, it stands to reason that the Marlins could extract a significant haul of prospects and young, MLB-ready talent in return for their 27-year-old All-Star. And, with the clock ticking and just two years of club control remaining, odds are that his trade value will never be higher than it is this winter.

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