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J.D. Davis

The Mets’ Unsung Offensive Star

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It was an action-packed offseason for rookie Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who stole headlines with his transactions and his bold proclamations naming his club the favorite in the National League East. Van Wagenen’s roster hasn’t performed to expectations since then, but after a tumultuous few months, the team has climbed above .500 and put itself in the thick of the NL wild-card race. One of Van Wagenen’s less heralded offseason pickups has been among the Mets at the forefront of their midsummer hot streak.

There was little hype accompanying the Mets’ acquisition of infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis from the Astros on Jan. 6. The Mets surrendered three minor leaguers for Davis, who – despite being a 2014 third-round pick and a solid prospect in Houston – didn’t have an obvious path to playing time with the Astros. However, the 26-year-old quickly worked his way into New York’s plans, thanks in part to season-opening injuries to infielders Todd Frazier and the still-hurt Jed Lowrie, and hasn’t graced the minors at all in 2019 after spending almost all of his Astros tenure there.

While Davis did hold his own at the lower levels with the Astros, he collected just 181 major league plate appearances from 2017-18 – in which he batted an unimpressive .194/.260/.321. On the other hand, the Mets’ version has amassed 293 PA and slashed a terrific .300/.369/.498 (131 wRC+) with 12 home runs and respectable strikeout and walk percentages (20.1 K, 9.2 BB). Much of the damage has come in the summer months for Davis, who overcame an unproductive May to post an .881 OPS in June and a 1.017 mark in July. His recent output has helped New York to a second-half awakening – after going into the All-Star break at 40-50, the team has shockingly risen to 57-56.

Although his production has benefited from a .347 batting average on balls in play – which is sure to drop considering the slow-moving Davis’ groundball-heavy profile – that’s not to say he has lucked into his success. To the contrary, according to Statcast, which places Davis in the league’s 91st percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average, hard-hit percentage and expected batting average.  As impressive as Davis’ .369 wOBA is, his .389 xwOBA is even better and ties for 17th among all qualified hitters, sandwiching him between Juan Soto and teammate/NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso. It helps, of course, that Davis has chased far fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter.

Regardless of whether the Mets do the unthinkable and rally to a playoff berth this year, it looks as if they have a legitimate long-term piece in Davis. As someone who has handled both right- and left-handed pitchers, the righty-swinging Davis has the makings of an everyday player. And while he has accrued more appearances in left field (38) than at third (31), it’s possible he’ll take over for Frazier – a pending free agent – at the hot corner next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL East Injury Notes: Frazier, Foltynewicz

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Let’s grab an update on a couple of players who might returning to NL East action…

  • Todd Frazier has a good chance of making his season debut later this week, per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). The Mets third baseman missed the first couple weeks of the 2019 season with a left oblique injury, but he’s on the return trail and could join the team in Philadelphia. J.D. Davis has had his share of moments while playing third in Frazier’s stead, batting .242/.375/.485, including a home run on April 6th – with an exit velocity of 114.6 mph – that was the fourth hardest-hit HR by a Mets player since Statcast started tracking the data in 2015. Both of his home runs this season came in that April 6th contest against the Nationals until he hit his third tonight against the Braves. Given the way Pete Alonso has played at first base, the Mets will face a roster crunch when Frazier does return. Dominic Smith, Luis Guillorme and Davis all have options remaining, making them notably vulnerable.
  • Braves righty Mike Foltynewicz will make his final scheduled rehab start this week before likely joining the Braves rotation for his 2019 debut, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter). Folty enjoyed a breakout 4.2 rWAR 2018, going 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA over a career high 31 starts. The stellar results were driven by year-over-year improvements in strikeouts per nine innings (from 8.4 K/9 to 9.9 K/9) and home runs allowed per nine (from 1.2 HR/9 to 0.8 HR/9). Both his fastball and sinker gained a full mph or more from 2017 to 2018, while he also relied more heavily on his slider, which excelled as a wipe out pitch (36.8 Whiff%, 42.4 K%). Sean Newcomb’s recent demotion opens up a spot in the rotation, as Monday’s day off will allow a four-man rotation until Folty is likely to return.

Mets Notes: McNeil, Free Agents, D’Arnaud, Davis

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The latest from the Amazins….

  • Teams have shown trade interest in utilityman Jeff McNeil, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required), though Rosenthal is doubtful the Mets would move the 26-year-old.  McNeil’s first MLB season saw him hit an eye-popping .329/.381/.471 over 248 plate appearances for New York, numbers that seemingly had him penciled in as the Mets’ second baseman in 2019.  After the acquisitions of Robinson Cano and Jed Lowrie, however, McNeil may spend more time in the outfield than the infield next season as the team intends to deploy him as a depth piece all over the diamond.  Given his six years of team control and the lengthy injury history of several Mets veterans, it makes sense that New York isn’t looking to deal McNeil, though he would certainly be one of the club’s better trade chips if GM Brodie Van Wagenen wanted to make another bold move.
  • The larger focus of Rosenthal’s piece is on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, as Rosenthal opines that the Mets should be pursuing either player as a way to make a final push as a true contender.  The Mets haven’t been considered as prime candidates for either superstar free agent since both players seem out of New York’s price range, though Rosenthal notes that the Mets will recoup a lot of money from insurance on David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes.  Earlier today on MLBTR, Steve Adams listed the Mets as a reasonable candidate as one of the “mystery teams” who are reportedly in the hunt for Machado.
  • Travis d’Arnaud is another player who could be taking on a multi-position role for the Mets next season, which the catcher is eager to assume.  “Wherever the team needs me or wants me to play, I’ll play,” d’Arnaud tells Kevin Kernan of the New York Post.  More than anything, d’Arnaud just wants to get back on the field in general, after missing almost all of 2018 due to a partial UCL tear in his throwing elbow.  This was the latest in a long list of injuries for d’Arnaud, which is why the Mets signed Wilson Ramos and relegated d’Arnaud to backup catcher, or perhaps hybrid bench duty as a catcher or corner infielder.  There’s also still a chance d’Arnaud could be traded, though he seems to have a clear path to the backup job after Kevin Plawecki was dealt to Cleveland.
  • Speaking of roster versatility, J.D. Davis is open to helping the Mets as a pitcher, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes.  “It’s a set skill that I have — a good arm and a good fastball — I can go out there and compete and throw some strikes and get some outs, that’s for sure,” Davis said.  The Mets don’t yet have any plans to work Davis out as a pitcher during Spring Training, DiComo reports, though he notes that Van Wagenen has twice referenced Davis’ ability on the mound since acquiring Davis from the Astros earlier this month.  Davis pitched in college and owns a 92-mph fastball, which he showed off in three mop-up duty relief outings for Houston over the last two seasons.  For now, however, his primary role with the Mets will be as depth at both corner infield and corner outfield spots.

AL Notes: Astros, Luhnow, Kikuchi, Orioles, Machado

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Astros GM Jeff Luhnow spoke to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter links) and other reporters about today’s five-player trade with the Mets, noting that New York “was aggressive” in asking about J.D. Davis.  The Astros weren’t originally thinking of moving Davis, but Luhnow explained that “there was enough of a market for him that we decided to go ahead and explore it because there’s no obvious spot for him on our 25-man roster next year, at this point.”  The Mets’ inclusion of catching prospect Scott Manea as part of the return going back to Houston “was a big part of it for us,” Luhnow said, due to the Astros’ lack of catching depth.  In terms of future moves, Luhnow also said that the Astros are still considering the starting pitching and bullpen markets.

Here’s more from around the AL…

  • Speaking to media (including the Kyodo News) in his return to Japan, Yusei Kikuchi mentioned that the Mariners were the first team to make him a contract offer.  It isn’t clear if other teams also made offers after the fact and Seattle eventually altered its offer to win the bidding, or if perhaps the M’s were the only club to issue a concrete offer to the left-hander.  The latter scenario seems rather unlikely, given that multiple teams reportedly had interest in Kikuchi during his posting period.  Then again, given how impressed Kikuchi and agent Scott Boras were with the Mariners’ detailed plans for managing Kikuchi’s workload and arm health in his transition to Major League Baseball, it isn’t entirely out of the question that Kikuchi decided to jump on the offer, especially considering the money involved (at least $56MM, and worth as much as $106MM) in the deal’s unique salary structure.
  • The Orioles have offered their bullpen coach job to minor league pitching coordinator John Wasdin, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports.  Wasdin has been in his current role in the organization for the last two seasons, after spending the previous six years as a minor league pitching coach in the Athletics’ farm system.  Wasdin briefly pitched for the O’s in 2001 as part of his 12-year career in the majors.  It isn’t yet known if Wasdin will accept the offer, though regardless, Kubatko writes that the Orioles will head into 2019 with an entirely new coaching staff under new manager Brandon Hyde.
  • The latest round of Manny Machado speculation had the free agent infielder reportedly visiting Chicago today, attending the Eagles/Bears NFL playoff game as a guest of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf.  As per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, however, this rumor wasn’t accurate.  In terms of free agency, Machado is already seeing a Chicago vs. Philadelphia (vs. New York) battle play out, as the White Sox, Phillies, and Yankees are the three teams most directly connected to his pursuit, and it’s possible these three clubs could be the finalists for Machado’s services.

Mets Acquire J.D. Davis

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The Mets and Astros have swung a five-player trade centering on corner infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis, according to both teams. New York has acquired Davis and minor league infielder Cody Bohanek in exchange for three minor leaguers – second baseman Luis Santana, outfielder Ross Adolph and catcher Scott Manea.

A third-round pick of the Astros in 2014, Davis ranked among the team’s top-15 prospects at Baseball America through the 2017 campaign. Davis has shown plenty of promise by raking in the minors, particularly at the Triple-A level, where he debuted in 2017 and has slashed .335/.400/.589 with 22 home runs in 450 plate appearances. He has also picked up experience at all four corner positions at Triple-A, though most of his professional work has come at third base.

While Davis held his own in Houston’s system, he wasn’t much of a factor in the majors for the club. The right-handed batter performed decently across 68 PAs in 2017, the year the Astros won the World Series, but was ineffective across 113 trips last season. Thus far, Davis is just a .194/.260/.321 hitter with five homers in 181 major league PAs. Thanks in part to Davis’ big league struggles, not to mention the Astros’ collection of talent at the corners, they deemed him expendable.

In New York, the soon-to-be 26-year-old Davis will provide depth behind third baseman Todd Frazier, whichever first baseman the Mets choose (be it Peter Alonso, Dominic Smith or Jeff McNeil) and corner outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto. With two minor league options remaining, the Mets won’t be under pressure to place Davis on their Opening Day roster. Bohanek, meanwhile, will surely start in the Mets’ minor league system, as the 23-year-old has totaled just 43 PAs above the High-A level since the Astros chose him in the 30th round of the 2017 draft.

Of the players going to Houston, only Santana, 19, ranked among New York’s top 30 prospects at MLB.com. The 5-foot-8 Santana placed 24th, with the outlet lauding his “very advanced approach at the plate” and his makeup. Santana was dominant last season in rookie ball, where he hit .348/.446/.471 with more walks (27) than strikeouts (23) over 242 PAs. He’s a “shrewd” addition for the Astros, Keith Law of ESPN observes.

Adolph, 22, joined the Mets in the 12th round of last summer’s draft. He then proceeded to slash .276/.348/.509 with seven homers and 14 steals in 264 PAs at the Low-A level. The 23-year-old Manea had been with the Mets since they grabbed him in the 40th round of the 2014 draft. He hasn’t yet gotten past Single-A, though Astros president Jeff Luhnow said Sunday (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle) that the team believes Manea “can move pretty quickly and has a chance to be a big league catcher.”

Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports first reported the Mets were close to acquiring Davis. Andy Martino of SNY tweeted the Mets would get Davis and that the Astros would receive minor leaguers in the swap. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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