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J.D. Davis

J.D. Davis Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Giants

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Infielder J.D. Davis has won his arbitration hearing against the Giants, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. He’ll make a salary of $6.9MM this year instead of the $6.5MM the club requested.

Davis, 31 in April, was acquired from the Mets in August of 2022. His first full season as a Giant went well, as he hit 18 home runs and reduced his strikeout rate to 27.8%, still above average but a drop relative to his own work in the previous two seasons. His .248/.325/.413 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 104, indicating he was 4% above league average.

On defense, the metrics were split, as Defensive Runs Saved gave him an atrocious grade of -11. His five Outs Above Average, on the other hand, were a career high. Baseball Reference, which uses DRS, calculated him as being worth 0.9 wins above replacement on the year. FanGraphs, which uses OAA, gave him 2.2 WAR.

Davis was a Super Two guy and therefore eligible for four arbitration passes. His first came prior to the 2021 season, when he and the Mets went to a hearing. The arbiters in that case sided with the club, giving Davis a salary of $2.1MM instead of the $2.475MM he was seeking. For 2022, he and the Mets avoided arbitration by agreeing to a modest bump to $2.76MM, with Davis only playing 73 games in 2021 due to a left hand injury. After getting traded to the Giants, he and that club avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.21MM salary for 2023.

Now just a year away from the open market, Davis projects to be the club’s everyday third baseman in 2024. However, the club has been connected in rumors to free agent Matt Chapman this winter. If they were to pull the trigger on such a deal, it would push Davis into a DH/bench role or perhaps onto the trade market.

The Giants didn’t exchange figures with any other players, so their arb class is now complete. Roster Resource puts their competitive balance tax number at $200MM as of today, $37MM short of the lowest tier of the tax.

Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.

This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.

Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.

The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…

Giants Exploring Center Field, Shortstop Markets

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi identified a pair of areas the team could look to address this offseason. Speaking with reporters at the GM Meetings, he acknowledged that “center field is going to be a priority” (link via John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle). Zaidi added the club could look for depth at shortstop.

A desire for center field help is natural, considering Zaidi has already spoken of a goal of becoming more athletic in the outfield. Bringing in a center fielder is the most direct way of doing that, as it’d allow new skipper Bob Melvin to keep Mike Yastrzemski in a corner. Rookie Luis Matos had below-average defensive marks in his first 438 innings at the position.

Cody Bellinger is the prize of the center field market. Players like Harrison Bader, Michael A. Taylor and Kevin Kiermaier are glove-first options who’d improve the defense — albeit with a significantly lower offensive ceiling than Bellinger provides — at a much lower price.

Zaire’s stance on shortstop walks back comments from last month a little bit. At the time, the front office leader said that 22-year-old Marco Luciano would get “the chance to be the everyday guy.” While Zaidi reiterated the organization is hopeful that Luciano seizes the job, he acknowledged yesterday “it makes sense for us to have some insurance.”

That could point more towards a depth addition than a rebound flier on Tim Anderson or Amed Rosario. It’s a thin free agent class, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Ahmed and Kevin Newman among available glove-first options. Longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford is also a free agent and indicated this week that he is still deciding whether to continue his career.

Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Giants are considering an upgrade at third base. J.D. Davis played reasonably well in 2023, hitting .248/.325/.413 across 546 plate appearances. Statcast credited him with above-average defense at the hot corner, although Defensive Runs Saved was far more bearish.

Matt Chapman has ties to Melvin from their time in Oakland. He’d be a marked upgrade over Davis with the glove. Free agency’s top third baseman may not be that much better than Davis offensively, however. Chapman struggled down the stretch and finished the season with a .240/.330/.424 slash through 581 plate appearances for the Blue Jays.

NL Injury Notes: Hoskins, Davis, Mitchell, Candelario, Alzolay

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Phillies manager Rob Thomson isn’t ruling out the possibility that Rhys Hoskins will play in the postseason. More specifically, the skipper told hosts on the WIP Morning Show that if Philadelphia makes it back to the World Series, Hoskins could be available to DH or pinch-hit.

The first baseman tore his ACL during spring training and has not played for the Phillies since last October. However, he’s taking batting practice and running the bases, and he appears to be progressing well. The possibility of his return remains a long shot – Philadelphia would have to make the World Series first, and even then, it’s no guarantee – but still, this is encouraging news for the club.

Hoskins has an .846 OPS and a 126 wRC+ in his career, both of which would rank second among qualified Phillies hitters this season. He was instrumental to the team’s postseason run last fall, clubbing six home runs and driving in 12 across 17 games.

In other National League injury news…

  • J.D. Davis exited early on Tuesday night after a rough slide into third base. The Giants later informed reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that the third baseman had suffered a shoulder strain, although the severity of the injury remains unclear. The 30-year-old has been San Francisco’s most durable player this season, leading the team in plate appearances and games played.
  • Brewers rookie Garrett Mitchell was spotted on the field ahead of Tuesday night’s contest with the Cardinals. The outfield prospect has been on the injured list since mid-April, but he is hoping to return for the playoffs. The 25-year-old told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) that he could remain on the IL for the rest of the regular season but still make the postseason roster. He is awaiting one final medical appointment before he is fully cleared to return, and he seems optimistic about his chances to play some kind of role for the Brewers this October.
  • Cubs manager David Ross spoke to reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) to provide an update on Jeimer Candelario. Chicago’s big addition at the trade deadline has been on the IL since September 11 with a lower back strain, but he could return as soon as this evening against the Braves. The Cubs could certainly use his switch-hitting bat in the lineup as they try to fend off their opponents in the Wild Card race over the final five days of the season. In other Cubs news, closer Adbert Alzolay is making progress in his attempt to return from a forearm strain. He is hoping to face live hitters in the next few days. 

Mitch Haniger To Undergo Forearm Surgery

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TODAY: The Giants announced that Haniger will undergo forearm surgery tomorrow, and a more specific timeline on his recovery will be provided on Friday.  Davis will miss the next 3-10 days with a Grade 1 ankle sprain, so while an IL stint will be necessary, the infielder looks to have avoided a more serious issue.

JUNE 13: Giants outfielder Mitch Haniger fractured his right forearm during tonight’s game against the Cardinals, the club informed reporters (including Maria Guardado of MLB.com). Third baseman J.D. Davis was also diagnosed with a right ankle sprain.

Haniger was hit by a Jack Flaherty pitch on a check swing in the third inning. He immediately departed with Blake Sabol taking his spot in left field. Unfortunately, x-rays quickly revealed the fracture, which is sure to result in another lengthy stint on the injured list.

It’s horrible luck for the veteran outfielder. Haniger has had plenty of injury concerns over his career, including some fluke issues that have kept him out for extended runs. A 2019 testicular rupture sustained when he fouled a ball off himself ended up necessitating multiple core surgeries that cost him all of 2020. He returned for a full season in 2021 but missed a large chunk of last year with a high ankle sprain in his right leg.

The Giants rolled the dice on Haniger’s power upside despite his injury history. San Francisco inked him to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent guarantee with a post-2024 opt-out clause. The first season of the deal hasn’t gone as planned. Haniger opened the year on the IL after suffering a Spring Training oblique strain. He returned in late April but started slowly, hitting .230/.281/.372 over 160 trips to the plate with his new club.

Haniger is now headed back to the IL, leaving the Giants with a gap to plug in the outfield. While they could turn to Sabol or Austin Slater more frequently alongside Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, it seems they’re considering bringing up one of their top prospects instead. As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noted (on Twitter), Luis Matos was pulled from tonight’s game with Triple-A Sacramento. The 21-year-old outfielder, who’s already on the Giants’ 40-man roster, is hitting .348/.415/.548 between the top two minor league levels.

Haniger’s injury isn’t the only concern from tonight’s game for San Francisco. Davis sprained his ankle while sliding into third base. He attempted to walk the injury off but moved rather gingerly and was taken out of the game. Casey Schmitt came in to replace him at the hot corner.

Davis has been one of San Francisco’s best hitters. The righty-swinging infielder is sitting on a .286/.369/.476 line with nine homers and a robust 10.9% walk rate through 245 plate appearances. If the injury sends him to the IL, Schmitt figures to take over third base. The rookie cooled offensively after a blistering start and owns a .276/.286/.405 slash over his first 32 MLB games. He’s walked just once in 119 plate appearances. Schmitt is making contact and regarded as a plus defensive third baseman, though, so he’d be a high-upside fill-in.

The Giants Are Getting The Best Out Of J.D. Davis

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There hasn’t been much doubt that J.D. Davis can hit. He got some very limited playing time with the Astros in 2017 and 2018 but burst onto the scene with the Mets after being acquired in a trade prior to the 2019 season. He went on to hit 22 home runs that year and slashed .307/.369/.527 for a wRC+ of 137. Defensively, the Mets put him in left field more often than his primary position of third base. He graded poorly in both spots but he still hit enough that he produced 2.5 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

Although 2019 was the “juiced ball” season, Davis wasn’t a one-year fluke at the plate, continuing to hit in the years since. His .247/.371/.389 line in the shortened 2020 season was a bit beneath the year before but still good enough for a 118 wRC+. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the injured list due to recurring issues in his left hand and only got into 73 games but still batted .285/.384/.436 for a 129 wRC+ when he was healthy enough to step up to the plate.

Last year, he was hitting .238/.324/.359 for the Mets through 66 games for a wRC+ of just 102 when the Giants took a flier on him, acquiring him alongside three other players in the deadline deal that sent Darin Ruf to Queens. The Elk Grove native quickly got things back on track after moving to the West Coast, slashing .263/.361/.496 down the stretch for a 142 wRC+.

Even with that strong finish, he didn’t have a secure hold on a full-time gig coming into this year. The Giants had seen one of their prospects, David Villar, perform well in his major league debut last year by hitting .231/.331/.455 in 52 games. Back in mid-February, the club’s president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said the Giants considered Villar to be their starting third baseman heading into Spring Training.

Despite all that solid work at the plate, the major concern about Davis has been his defense. From 2019 to 2022, Davis was considered to be worth -25 Defensive Runs Saved at third base, one of the five worst marks in the majors at that position for that time frame. Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average weren’t quite as negative but also graded him as being subpar.

The club clearly liked Davis enough to acquire him but they also wanted to see what they had in Villar, a player much younger and with more club control. That left Davis with some work to do, something that Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle discussed with him as Spring Training was just getting going. Davis talked about how he had been working with bench coach and infield/baserunning instructor Kai Correa on his defense, particularly his footwork, while manager Gabe Kapler highlighted his propensity for swinging and missing at pitches in the strike zone as his weak point on offense.

We’re now roughly three months removed from Zaidi declaring Villar the club’s third baseman and that profile on Davis, and the picture has completely changed since then. Davis hit a torrid .311/.354/.467 in the spring while Villar limped to a line of .143/.167/.286. Villar still got six starts at third base in the club’s first 10 regular season games but only got two more after that as he’s hit .148/.240/.318 on the year so far and was optioned to the minors a couple days ago.

Davis, meanwhile, has taken the job at the hot corner and is running off with it. He already has seven home runs and is slashing .294/.368/.492 for a wRC+ of 136, just a hair under his 2019 breakout. His average exit velocity is in the 95th percentile of qualified hitters and his hard hit rate 94th. His contact rate on pitches in the zone is 82.9%, the highest of his career. His 25% strikeout rate is still higher than average, but it’s a big improvement over the past two seasons, each of which saw him finish above 32%.

But perhaps most remarkably, his defensive grades have improved dramatically. DRS has Davis at league-average at third this year, no small feat considering his woeful grading in previous years. UZR gives him a grade of 1.1 for the season so far, one of the top 10 among major league third basemen. Outs Above Average currently has him at +4, trailing only Josh Rojas, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Eugenio Suárez at the hot corner. This is a small sample size of just 259 2/3 innings, so it’s too soon to decisively declare Davis a plus defender, but there’s seems to be a budding consensus that his glovework has taken a meaningful step forward.

Davis seems to be in peak form both at the plate and in the field, which has allowed him to produce 1.3 fWAR already in just 38 games, more than halfway to his career-high of 2.5 from that 2019 season. While the Giants are surely thrilled by those developments, it could lead them to a difficult decision a few months from now. Overall, the club has struggled to an 18-23 start to the season, putting them behind the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Padres in the National League West. There’s still plenty of time for the club to turn things around, but there’s a chance they may have to consider some selling when the trade deadline approaches.

Davis came into this season with between four and five years of service time. That means he can still be retained via arbitration for 2024 and isn’t an impending free agent. The club won’t feel they absolutely have to move him, but it would at least warrant some consideration if they find themselves outside the playoff race. Given his strong performance, year-and-a-half of control and modest $4.21MM salary this year, he would surely garner plenty of interest. There’s a handful of contenders with question marks at third base who would likely pick up the phone, such as the Twins, Phillies and Yankees. The Giants could flip him for some younger and cheaper players, then perhaps give Villar another shot at the big leagues in the latter months of the season. The alternative would be holding onto Davis and hoping for better results as a team next year before he reaches the open market.

Of course, the club will be hoping they play well enough over the next few months they don’t even have to consider that path. Despite their sluggish start, they’re only two games back of a Wild Card spot at the moment due to slow starts from other contenders like the Phillies, Mets and Padres. There’s no sense in shoveling dirt on their season just yet, but front offices have to consider all potential avenues and will surely be having conversations about how they want to proceed.

Time will tell how that plays out, but for now, it’s all good news. The Giants sent Ruf to the Mets and acquired Davis less than a year ago. Even if it were just a one-for-one swap, that deal already looks like a huge win, since Ruf has gone in the opposite direction since then. He was released by the Mets earlier this year, briefly returned to the Giants, and just yesterday signed with the Brewers. Of course, it wasn’t a one-for-one swap. The Giants also got Thomas Szapucki, Nick Zwack and Carson Seymour in the trade. If any of those pitchers can develop into useful pieces, it will be icing on a cake that is already very sweet thanks to Davis.

West Notes: Syndergaard, White, Davis

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Noah Syndergaard signed a one-year, $13MM free agent deal with the Dodgers this winter, and the right-hander tells the New York Post’s Jon Heyman that “there might have been more money on the table with another team.”  But, Los Angeles held particular appeal for Syndergaard, as “I wanted to give myself the best chance to get back to the World Series and win it all.  And I wanted the best coaching and direction that the sport has to offer and I’m fully convinced that that is with the Dodgers.”  There is certainly a solid track record of pitchers being revived after joining the Dodgers, and Syndergaard might have a lot in particular to offer, given his past ace status and the fact that he is now fully healthy.

Tommy John surgery and some related setbacks cost Syndergaard all but two innings of the 2020-21 seasons.  While he had a 3.94 ERA over 134 2/3 combined innings with the Angels and Phillies last year, Syndergaard still felt the “Tommy John hangover,” saying that “I didn’t throw a pitch where it didn’t feel like I was pitching in a straightjacket….It’s hard to get hitters out when you’re thinking about what your body is doing in mid-delivery.”  It remains to seen if Syndergaard can ever fully return to his All-Star form, but even solid numbers and a clean bill of health would put him in nice position for a richer, multi-year contract in free agency next winter.

More from the NL and AL West…

  • Formerly one of baseball’s top prospects, Evan White played only 30 MLB games in 2021 and none in 2022 due to hip surgery, a sports hernia surgery, and related other setbacks and injuries.  White is feeling much better now, however, as the Mariners first baseman told Larry Stone of the Seattle Times that he received offseason treatment for “a muscle in my pelvic floor that was the biggest issue….You can give me all the stabilization exercises you want, but if I can’t do it from the very inner parts of me, it’s tough to do.  I’ve had injuries on that side since I was probably 14 years old.  I had to make sure everything was firing, firing the right patterns.”  Manager Scott Servais said the current plan is to keep White in his regular first base spot this spring until both White and the Mariners are fully sure of his health, and then perhaps White might get some looks as a corner outfielder, as a way of finding a lineup spot since Ty France now has first base locked down.
  • David Villar’s emergence as the Giants’ planned regular third baseman has left J.D. Davis in something of a crunch for playing time, as The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser notes that Davis might only see most of his action when a left-handed pitcher is on the mound, with Davis and Wilmer Flores stepping in for Joc Pederson and LaMonte Wade Jr. at DH and first base, respectively.  Of course, injuries, under-performance, or the Giants’ penchant for platoon advantages could boost Davis’ time on the field, but on paper, Davis again looks to be a part-time player after filling a similar role over a good chunk of his time with the Mets.  Even after an underwhelming start last season, Davis finished 2022 hitting .240/.340/.418 over 365 plate appearances (119 wRC+) with New York and San Francisco, boosted largely by a hot streak after the Giants acquired him at the trade deadline.

Giants’ Brass Discusses Third Base, Catcher Situations

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler spoke with reporters today. They touched on a wide array of topics, offering insight into the club’s early outlooks at third base, behind the plate, and in the starting rotation.

Zaidi said the club considers David Villar the starting third baseman heading into camp (relayed by Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Area). The 26-year-old earned the first crack at securing the job after an impressive rookie season. Despite lacking much prospect pedigree, the South Florida product has consistently performed at an excellent level in the minors. He had arguably his best season with Triple-A Sacramento in 2022, connecting on 27 home runs with an incredible .275/.404/.617 showing over 84 games.

The Giants called Villar up for the first time last July. He continued to make a strong power impact, hitting nine homers over his first 181 MLB plate appearances. Villar also walked at an above-average 9.9% clip against big league pitching, though his 32% strikeout rate is alarming. Villar has run higher than average strikeout rates throughout his time in the minors as well. He’s consistently more than offset that with strong plate discipline and power, however, and his .231/.331/.455 line through his first 52 MLB games was a strong start.

Villar has primarily played third base as a minor leaguer. He also has some experience at the other corner infield spot and at second base. Zaidi indicated the Giants would continue to get Villar some work at second base this spring, allowing Kapler to pencil him into the lineup at the keystone on days when Thairo Estrada moves to shortstop to give Brandon Crawford a day off.

The Giants have J.D. Davis and Wilmer Flores on hand as potential third base alternatives. Each of Villar, Flores and Davis hits from the right side. Davis has had neutral platoon splits over the course of his career, while Flores has fared better against left-handed pitching as most righty hitters do. The Giants look set to turn to left-handed hitting LaMonte Wade Jr. and Joc Pederson at first base and designated hitter, respectively.

Both Wade and Pederson have struggled against lefties in their careers, leaving opportunities for Davis and Flores to factor in at those positions. Aside from Crawford, the only left-handed hitting infielders on the roster are Isan Díaz and Brett Wisely. Neither player is established at the MLB level yet and both can still be optioned to the minor leagues.

There’s a fair bit of possible fluidity to the group, but the 26-year-old Villar will get a chance to seize everyday playing time if he can replicate or improve upon his rookie showing. The catcher situation could be even more up in the air. Kapler suggested there’s a true four-way competition for reps behind the plate and indicated no one in camp is assured of an MLB job (link via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle).

Former second overall pick Joey Bart was the primary starter last season. He connected on 11 home runs with a .215/.296/.364 line over 291 trips to the plate. Bart’s power has long drawn plaudits from evaluators, though his overall offense at the MLB level has been below-average thanks to huge strikeout tallies. He fanned in 38.5% of his plate appearances last season, the third-highest rate among players with at least 250 trips. Bart is still only 26 and has hit the ball hard when he’s made contact. It’s certainly not out of the question he can be a productive #1 catcher, but he’ll likely have to take a step forward with his bat-to-ball skills to take a firm claim to that job.

The only other catcher on the 40-man roster is Rule 5 draftee Blake Sabol, whom the club has to keep on the MLB roster or place on waivers and offer back to the Pirates. Sabol has no MLB experience, splitting last season between the top two levels of the minor leagues. He was excellent at both stops, combining for a .284/.363/.497 line over 513 trips to the plate. The 25-year-old also saw some corner outfield work in the minors, but Kapler informed reporters the Giants strictly consider him a catcher.

Bart and Sabol are joined in camp by a pair of more experienced non-roster invitees. Last year’s backup Austin Wynns accepted an outright assignment after clearing waivers last month. He’s coming off a .259/.313/.358 showing across 66 MLB games. Two-time Gold Glove award winner Roberto Pérez is also in camp after signing a minor league contract as a free agent. He lost virtually all of last season with the Pirates after suffering a serve hamstring strain. Pérez is just a .207/.298/.360 career hitter but regarded as one of the sport’s best defensive catchers.

On the other side of the ball, Kapler informed reporters that righty Anthony DeSclafani enters camp healthy after undergoing surgery on his right ankle last July (link via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). That kept the veteran hurler to five starts in the first season of a three-year free agent deal. DeSclafani had been a crucial member of the starting five the year prior, tossing 167 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball to earn a $36MM guarantee over the 2021-22 offseason.

A healthy DeSclafani should vie for a rotation spot, although it’s possible he’s outside the top five options on Opening Day. Logan Webb is the staff ace, followed by Alex Cobb in the second spot. Offseason signees Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling are penciled into the middle of the group. That leaves DeSclafani and Alex Wood in the mix for the fifth spot. Zaidi indicated the club could use a six-man starting staff on occasion but cast doubt about the possibility of deploying that permanently. It’s possible one of DeSclafani or Wood starts the season in the bullpen if everyone’s healthy, although a Spring Training or early-season injury could clarify the decision.

San Francisco is already preparing to push Jakob Junis back into a multi-inning relief role after he started 17 of 23 games last season. Top prospect Kyle Harrison figures to get a rotation look at some point during the year, although he’ll open the season with Sacramento.

Mets, Giants Swap J.D. Davis For Darin Ruf

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The Mets have acquired first baseman/left fielder Darin Ruf from the Giants for third baseman J.D. Davis according to SNY’s Andy Martino.  According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Giants also picked up southpaw Thomas Szapucki and A-ball pitchers Nick Zwack and Carson Seymour in the trade.

At the risk of stating the obvious, the trade suggests the Mets think Ruf can help them more this year than Davis, as both are bat-first right-handed hitters.  Ruf, who recently turned 36, continues to serve as a lefty-masher this year.  He’s got a 155 wRC+ in 337 plate appearances against southpaws since returning from KBO in 2020, which ranks fourth in all of MLB.  Ruf actually succeeded against righties as well in 2020-21, but has struggled against them this year.  He’s earning $3MM on the season, of which about $1MM remains.  He also has a $3.5MM club option for 2022 with a $250K buyout.  Ruf and fellow new acquisition Daniel Vogelbach make for an excellent platoon at designated hitter for the Mets.

Davis, 29, is under team control as an arbitration eligible player for both the 2023 and ’24 seasons.  Though not known for his glove, unlike Ruf, Davis is capable of playing third base.  Since coming over from the Astros in a January 2019 trade, Davis has posted a 125 wRC+ for the Mets in 1,100 plate appearances.  He hasn’t shown a significant platoon split in that period, and has flashed eye-popping Statcast metrics at times.  This year, however, Davis has posted just a 102 wRC+ for the Mets in 207 plate appearances and hasn’t been drawing many starts of late.  Davis became particularly expendable with the Mets’ signing of Eduardo Escobar back in November plus the acquisition of Vogelbach.  Davis played in 140 games for the Mets in 2019, but has played in only 195 games since 2020 due to injuries.

In Szapucki, the Giants get a lefty with a pair of big league appearances to his name.  Szapucki has mostly operated as a starter in the minors, posting a strong 21.6 K-BB% in 64 Triple-A innings this year.  Prior to last season, Baseball America rated him as a 45-grade prospect, saying he can “land three pitches for strikes,” and needed to recover his velocity after spending 2020 at the Mets’ alternate site.  Szapucki has indeed done so, working at 90.9 miles per hour in his lone 2021 MLB appearance but pitching at 95.1 in a brutal May 25th outing at San Francisco in which he surrendered nine earned runs while recording only four outs.  Apparently Giants brass liked what they saw in that outing, despite their hitters beating up on Szapucki with four home runs.

Zwack, a 24-year-old southpaw, moved to High-A in May and has excelled with a 22.8 K-BB%.  A 17th round pick in 2021 out of Xavier University, it remains to be seen if Zwack can sustain his success when facing opponents closer to his own age.  Seymour, a 23-year-old righty, moved into the Brooklyn Cyclones’ rotation around the same time as Zwack.  With a 25.0 K-BB% rate, he’s been successful as well aside from the longball.  Seymour was drafted by the Mets in the sixth round in 2021 out of Kansas State.

Mets Acquire Tyler Naquin, Phillip Diehl From Reds

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The Reds and Mets have lined up on a trade sending outfielder Tyler Naquin and minor league reliever Phillip Diehl from Cincinnati to New York. In exchange, the Reds are acquiring a pair of low minors prospects, right-hander Jose Acuña and second baseman Hector Rodríguez. Both clubs have announced the agreement.

Naquin had been one of the more obvious trade candidates around the league. The 31-year-old is set to reach free agency at the end of the season, so there was little reason for the last-place Reds not to look to move him for future value. He’ll head to Queens as the second left-handed bat the Mets have added in as many weeks. New York picked up first baseman/designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach in a deal with the Pirates last Friday.

A former first-round pick of Cleveland, Naquin had an excellent rookie season back in 2016. His offensive productivity was up-and-down for the rest of his time there, but he’s settled in as a solid platoon bat over the past two years. Naquin signed a minor league deal with Cincinnati over the 2020-21 offseason, and he cracked the Opening Day roster last year. That paved for the way for a season and a half as a Red, in which he posted a .262/.324/.462 line through 655 plate appearances.

That overall offensive productivity is a hair above average, and Naquin has been quite good when holding the platoon advantage. He’s popped 23 homers in 542 plate appearances against right-handed pitching over the past couple seasons, compiling a .278/.338/.503 mark against righties. That power has translated outside of the Reds hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, and the Mets figure to leverage him as a platoon player down the stretch.

The Mets have one of the game’s best outfields, with a trio of Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte manning the grass. Canha and Marte will continue to pick up the lion’s share of playing time in the corners, but Naquin complements those veteran right-handed bats. He’ll also supplement a DH group that includes Vogelbach and Dominic Smith from the left side, as well as the righty-swinging J.D. Davis.

Naquin’s acquisition seemingly increases the likelihood that at least one of Smith or Davis gets dealt before next Tuesday’s deadline. The Mets have been on the hunt for offensive help for weeks, largely due to dissatisfaction with Smith’s and Davis’ performance. Adding a pair of DH/bench bats to an already full outfield and with superstar Pete Alonso at first base further clutters that group. Each of Smith and Davis has minor league options remaining, and the Mets have already optioned Smith this year. That’s a possibility if the club simply wants to stockpile as much depth as possible, but it also stands to reason they’d be open to trade opportunities.

The Mets will seemingly add a bit of money to the payroll, as there’s no indication cash considerations are changing hands. Naquin is playing this season on a $4.025MM salary, around $1.525MM of which is still to be paid. The Mets luxury tax figure is narrowly above the $290MM threshold, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, a team that exceeds $290MM (the fourth and highest tier of CBT penalization) is taxed at an 80% rate for every dollar thereafter.

In addition to Naquin, the Mets add some non-roster bullpen depth. Diehl, who was outrighted off the Reds 40-man roster in May, won’t immediately occupy a spot on New York’s 40-man. He’s spent the bulk of the season with the Reds top affiliate in Louisville, working to a 4.24 ERA through 23 1/3 innings. The 27-year-old has an excellent 30.6% strikeout rate against a decent 8.2% walk percentage, although his fly-ball oriented approach has made him fairly home run prone.

New York’s left-handed relief depth is thin, with Joely Rodríguez and recent waiver claim Sam Clay the only two bullpen southpaws on the 40-man roster. Clay has been hit hard in four appearances with Triple-A Syracuse and has yet to appear in an MLB game as a Met. Rodríguez, acquired from the Yankees shortly before the season, owns a 5.93 ERA across 27 1/3 innings on the year. He’s striking out batters and inducing grounders at a decent clip, but he’s also walked a massive 16.3% of batters faced. Left-handed relief help figures to continue to be a target over the next few days even with Diehl bolstering the organizational depth.

To create space for Naquin on the 40-man roster, the Mets announced they’ve designated reliever R.J. Alvarez for assignment. The righty was selected onto the roster earlier this month but didn’t wind up making an MLB appearance. He’s had a nice season in Syracuse, working to a 3.16 ERA through 31 1/3 frames. The Mets will presumably place the 31-year-old on waivers in the coming days.

The Reds, meanwhile, add some talent to the lower levels. Rodríguez, an 18-year-old infielder, was recently ranked by Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs as the #30 prospect in the Mets organization. Longenhagen writes that the left-handed hitter has excellent bat control, but he has limited power upside in a 5’8″ frame.  He was recently signed out of the Dominican Republic. Acuña, 19, was recently promoted to Low-A. He has never appeared on an organizational prospect list at FanGraphs or Baseball America.

It’s the first move of what’s likely to be a busy few days for Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall and his staff. Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle are the club’s top trade candidates, but they also have a host of rental bats who should generate interest. Beyond Naquin, Cincinnati could market impending free agent hitters Brandon Drury, Donovan Solano and Tommy Pham to contenders.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Mets were acquiring Diehl. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the Mets were acquiring Naquin. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first to report the prospect return.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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