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Ian Kennedy To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Padres right-hander Ian Kennedy will reject the team’s qualifying offer and seek a multi-year deal on the free-agent market, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported yesterday that Kennedy was planning to reject the offer, and he did just that rather than following the path of fellow Scott Boras client Matt Wieters in accepting he one-year pact.

Many have speculated that Kennedy would accept the offer due to a poor start to the season and a problem with home runs in 2015, but the longstanding belief at MLBTR has been that Kennedy’s durability and penchant for strikeouts would lead to a multi-year deal on the open market. The right-hander ranks fourth in the NL in innings pitched dating back to 2011 and he’s averaged 8.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in that time to go along with a 3.89 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.78 xFIP.

The 30-year-old Kennedy did have some struggles in 2015, namely an abnormal susceptibility to home runs. Kennedy logged a dreadful 7.15 ERA through the first two months of the season, but he rebounded with a 3.41 ERA and 137-to-38 K/BB ratio over his final 129 1/3 innings (22 starts).

Over the course of his career, 10.7 percent of fly-balls off Kennedy have turned into home runs, but that number soared to an uncharacteristic — and probably fluky — 17.2 percent in 2015. A return to his normal rate in that regard should lead to dramatically improved bottom-line results from Kennedy, who recorded the best K%-BB% mark of his career this past season.

It’s hard to peg a specific market for the veteran at this point, as none of the starting pitching pieces have fallen into place. Generally, though, he lands comfortably in the mid-tier of free agent rotation options. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rated him the 19th-best player available, sandwiched between Scott Kazmir and Yovani Gallardo, and predicted that Kennedy will land a deal in the range of four-years and $52MM deal in spite of the QO.

Heyman’s Latest: Offseason Spending, CarGo, Pirates, Kennedy, Gallardo

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In his latest notes column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports begins by classifying the Angels, Giants, Tigers, Red Sox, Cubs, Cardinals and Dodgers as the expected “big spenders” of the offseason, breaking down some targets that each club could pursue. Heyman goes on to call the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, D-Backs, Mets, Royals and Padres as “medium spenders,” noting that each has needs and could make one significant addition or a series of mid-range moves in order to address multiple areas around the roster. As he did with the big-spending clubs, Heyman examines a few plausible scenarios for each, noting that the Royals are still in the three- or four-year range on Alex Gordon, thereby casting some doubt on a potential reunion.

A few highlights from his column…

  • While Andrelton Simmons’ name has been a hot topic over the past 15 hours or so, there’s a “good chance” that the Braves will make Julio Teheran available at some point this winter. Teheran’s value isn’t as high as that of Simmons at the moment, I wouldn’t think, due to a down year for Teheran in 2015. Moving him would be selling low, which makes it more difficult to envision a deal, from my vantage point.
  • The White Sox were one of “many teams” to which agent Brodie Van Wagenen made a presentation regarding Yoenis Cespedes, though the greater needs for the ChiSox come at catcher, third base, second base and shortstop.
  • The Rockies have again made Carlos Gonzalez available in trades, as many expected would be the case following the summer trade of Troy Tulowitzki. CarGo dominated the National League from June through season’s end after struggling with injuries in 2014 and early 2015 and undoubtedly restored an exceptional amount of trade value. Heyman speculatively listed the Orioles as a potential match when discussing Baltimore in his intro section.
  • Pittsburgh has fielded offers on all seven of its players that are a year removed from free agency. That includes Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Mark Melancon, Mike Morse, Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli. However, the Pirates are also said to be considering an attempt at locking Cervelli up on a multi-year deal.
  • Ian Kennedy is planning to decline the Padres’ qualifying offer, per Heyman. Both Tim Dierkes and I have noted that there’s little sense in Kennedy accepting the offer. The right-hander is fourth in innings pitched in the NL over the past five seasons and has averaged 8.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in that time while posting a 3.89 ERA, 3.87 FIP and 3.78 xFIP. Homer struggles in 2015 aside, Kennedy finished strong and should get paid somewhere. It’s hard to envision a Scott Boras client being the first to accept a qualifying offer, and if all else fails, Kennedy can go the Ervin Santana route and sign a one-year deal near the value of the QO late in the offseason.
  • Similarly, Yovani Gallardo plans to turn down the Rangers’ QO. Heyman hears he’s expected to sign elsewhere despite being a Fort Worth area native. The Rangers will again attempt to re-sign Colby Lewis, he adds.

West Notes: Rangers, Padres, Rockies, Eppler

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The Rangers made their biggest additions at the trade deadline, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The principle additions were ace Cole Hamels along with relievers Jake Diekman and Sam Dyson. Between Hamels’ contract and raises to existing personnel, the Rangers won’t have budget to compete for top free agents. Instead, they’ll pursue more cost effective options. Possible reunions with Yovani Gallardo, Colby Lewis, and Mike Napoli represent a few possible fits. Additional bullpen depth is also seen as a need.

Here’s more from the western divisions:

  • Padres GM A.J. Preller “remains an enigma,” writes Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune. Payroll is expected to range anywhere from slightly below last season’s $108MM to $120MM. That doesn’t give Preller any room for a splashy free agent signing. The club does have to work on building a better balanced product. A real shortstop – not Will Middlebrooks or Jedd Gyorko – should be a priority. The club probably also needs to replace Ian Kennedy and add another depth piece to the rotation. James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, Joaquin Benoit, and Derek Norris are the most likely veterans to be traded.
  • History says the Rockies won’t make a splash either, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Trade interest in outfielder Carlos Gonzalez could affect the team’s plans. If the club is able to trade the two-years and $37MM remaining on his deal, they could potential bid for a slugger like Chris Davis. Despite terrible performance out of the rotation, they probably won’t try to woo free agent pitching.
  • Angels GM Billy Eppler is a blend of the old and new schools, writes Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. For those interested, the profile of Eppler details his rise from intern to one of the top GM prospects in the game. The Angels faithful will hope his blend of scouting chops with an analytical instinct will result in a productive offseason for the club. His first test – the GM Meetings – begins on Monday.

West Notes: Padres, Athletics, Molina

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It doesn’t look like A.J. Preller and the Padres will be big spenders the way they were last winter, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes in a preview of the team’s offseason. Lin notes that starting pitcher Ian Kennedy is expected to decline his qualifying offer and test free agency. He also notes that the Padres still badly need a shortstop, and could also pursue a starting pitcher and outfielder, since Kennedy and Justin Upton seem likely to depart. James Shields and Derek Norris, meanwhile, could be potential trade candidates. Moving Shields and the $65MM remaining on his salary would give the Padres more flexibility (which means Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit could also be trade candidates). If Norris departs after a solid first season in San Diego, the Padres could hand the catching position to youngster Austin Hedges, a strong defender. Here’s more from the West divisions.

  • The Athletics have announced a pair of promotions within their front office. They’ve promoted director of player personnel Billy Owens to assistant GM, director of player personnel. Director of professional scouting and baseball development Dan Feinstein, meanwhile, is now assistant GM, pro scouting and player personnel.
  • The Angels have named Jose Molina their catching coordinator. As MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez tweets, that’s a new position for the organization. Gonzalez further clarifies that Molina will mostly be working with minor leaguers. On paper, this looks like a terrific hire for the Angels, since Molina had a rock-solid reputation as a pitch-framing catcher. Molina caught for the Angels for parts of seven seasons, mostly serving as his brother Bengie’s backup. The 40-year-old last appeared in the big leagues with the Rays in 2014.

Padres To Make Qualifying Offer To Ian Kennedy, Justin Upton

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NOV. 6, 4:07pm: It more or less goes without saying, but Justin Upton will also get a QO, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets.

11:35am: The Padres are indeed planning to make the qualifying offer to Kennedy, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

NOV. 4: The Padres are leaning toward extending a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to free-agent right-hander Ian Kennedy, reports Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. An official decision won’t be announced until shortly before the 5pm ET deadline for qualifying offers this Friday, but Lin calls a QO a “likely” outcome for Kennedy.

Previous reports have indicated that the Padres weren’t 100 percent set on the offer. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports noted in mid-October that Padres people were considering making one, but rival executives remained skeptical.

From our vantage point at MLBTR, Kennedy’s a natural qualifying offer candidate on the heels of a solid season. While he logged an alarming 7.15 ERA through the season’s first two months, Kennedy rebounded with a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 137-to-38 K/BB ratio over his final 129 1/3 innings of the season, leaving him with a 4.28 ERA in 168 1/3 innings on the season. Dating back to 2011, Kennedy ranks 14th of 278 qualified starters with 1175 innings, topping the marks of free-agent peers such as Yovani Gallardo and Mike Leake.

Kennedy figures to reject the qualifying offer in favor of a multi-year deal, and it seems possible that there’s a four-year pact waiting for him on the open market. A three-year deal would seem to be a virtual certainty for Kennedy from where I sit, although even if the market completely collapsed on him, he’d still be able to find a one-year deal worth more than $10MM, as Ervin Santana did prior to the 2014 season with the Braves.

Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

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The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.

The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.

All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…

  • The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
  • The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.

Earlier Updates

  • Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
  • The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
  • The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
  • As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.

Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Murphy, Kennedy, Wieters, Phillies

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Mets righty Matt Harvey and agent Scott Boras took out an insurance policy on the right-hander’s arm, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest Inside Baseball column. The policy covers a mere fraction of Harvey’s overall earning potential, says Heyman, but it does give him a bit of a safety net in the event that his workload following Tommy John surgery leads to future arm complications. Heyman notes that Harvey’s dominant outing in Game 1 of the NLCS “all but obliterated” other teams’ chances of trading for the right-hander, who was lauded by the Citi Field faithful. Never one to pass up the chance for a memorable quote, Boras said of Harvey’s performance on a cold New York evening: “Forget Batman. He’s Mr. Freeze.”

A few more highlights from the column…

  • While multiple reports have indicated that the Mets aren’t planning on giving Daniel Murphy a qualifying offer, one rival GM tells Heyman that they “absolutely have to” extend the QO on the heels of Murphy’s huge postseason. The GM added that Murphy should reject the offer and look to capitalize on the five homers he’s launched since the NLDS got underway.
  • The Padres appear to have interest in a reunion with starter Ian Kennedy, per the report. It’s likely, of course, that there will be competition. As Heyman notes, the 30-year-old righty has sustained the gains in velocity and strikeout rate that he showed last year — in fact, his 9.3 K/9 is second only to David Price among free agents — and has been a reliable source of innings for the last six years.
  • Catcher Matt Wieters will draw some open-market interest from the Rangers, but only if he avoids a qualifying offer. Texas would not have interest in giving up its first-round pick to ink Wieters, says Heyman.
  • The Phillies haven’t yet called Jim Hendry about their open GM seat. He teamed with new Philadelphia president Andy MacPhail with the Cubs. But Heyman writes that the Phils appear to be angling toward younger candidates. Though we haven’t heard much lately on the status of Kim Ng, one source says that she remains in the mix.

Heyman’s Latest: Greinke, Mattingly, QOs, Gordon, Anderson, Hunter

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Jon Heyman of CBS Sports kicks off Friday morning with a pair of columns — the first being a piece on Zack Greinke’s opt-out status and the second being his weekly Inside Baseball column. Heyman writes in the first piece that Greinke will indeed opt out of the remaining three years and $71MM on his Dodgers contract, as has been widely anticipated for the better part of a year. One general manager suggested to Heyman that Greinke will receive, “at minimum,” multiple offers of $125MM over the next five seasons. That GM wagered a guess at the winning bid: $150MM over five years. Heyman notes that while many teams — the Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, D-Backs and Rangers, among others — will be in the mix for Greinke this winter, the right-hander enjoyed 2015 with the Dodgers more than he enjoyed his first two seasons, and L.A. will attempt to bring him back. Per Heyman, Greinke didn’t mesh with Josh Beckett and Hanley Ramirez in previous years but had nothing but positive feelings about the 2015 campaign.

Onto some highlights from his second column…

  • There’s no certainty on the job status of Don Mattingly right now despite three consecutive division titles, Heyman writes. Mattingly is well-liked by the new Dodgers front office on a personal level, and the team is pleased with how he handled Andre Ethier’s shift to a part-time role, A.J. Ellis’ shift to a backup role in favor of Yasmani Grandal, and the emergence of Corey Seager over Jimmy Rollins late in the year. Mattingly’s people-managing skills are valued by the Dodgers, even if his in-game tactics aren’t quite as strong. Heyman notes that with the Dodgers unconvinced of Mattingly as their long-term option, they may allow him to interview with other clubs, and both the Nationals and Marlins would show interest.
  • The Orioles are believed to be hesitant to make a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters and will only do so if they’re convinced that he won’t take it. (I can’t imagine a Scott Boras client that plays a premium position in the midst of his prime age doing so under any circumstances.) The White Sox will make a QO to Jeff Samardzija, who will not accept it, as has been suggested multiple times over the past couple of months.
  • Colby Rasmus, on the other hand, is not expected to receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the Astros despite 25 regular-season homers and a strong postseason showing. Heyman writes that Alex Gordon will be “a name to keep an eye on” in connection with the Astros this offseason, as the team may look to inject its lineup with more on-base percentage and batting average than the 2015 crop. They’ll also look for more steady production at first and third base this winter after a season of boom-or-bust results from Luis Valbuena and Chris Carter.
  • The Dodgers are set on making a qualifying offer to Howie Kendrick and are also planning on making a QO to Brett Anderson despite his injury history. The latter of the two drew some surprise when Heyman shared it with execs around the league, though as he points out, L.A. is in need of pitching. If Anderson accepts — again, a scenario I find unlikely given his age and strong 2015 results — he’d solidify a spot in the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw. And, I’ll point out, Anderson’s 2016 salary would then check in just $3.4MM north of the $12.4MM he earned in total after receiving a $10MM base salary and earning another $2.4MM worth of innings-based incentives this season.
  • The Twins are willing to pay a premium to bring Torii Hunter back to their clubhouse if he’s willing to take a reduced role. Hunter, though, has been resistant to that idea in the past. He’s not yet decided whether or not he’ll return to the Majors for his age-41 season or call it a career.
  • Other qualifying offer notes from Heyman throughout the column indicate that Padres people have suggested that they’ll make a QO to Ian Kennedy, though rival execs remain skeptical. Current expectation in the industry is that the Mets won’t make a qualifying offer to Daniel Murphy, and the same is true of the Nationals with regard to Denard Span, who suffered through an injury-shortened season. Kennedy and Murphy seem like easy calls to decline the qualifying offer to me, whereas Span is a tougher case due to his age and injuries, which included season-ending hip surgery. I can see a case for Span taking the $15.8MM payday — the initial contract extension he signed with the Twins, after all, was only for $16.5MM guaranteed, though that rose to $25MM after his 2016 option was exercised.
  • The Nationals have received permission from the Giants to interview bench coach Ron Wotus to fill their managerial vacancy. Wotus has coached on the Giants’ Major League staff for the past 17 seasons and is a two-time Minor League Manager of the Year.

Quick Hits: Hawkins, Padres, Rockies

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LaTroy Hawkins, 42, is the oldest active player in the game, but he nearly walked away before his career got started, writes Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com. Hawkins is expected to retire after the season with the 10th most appearances in major league history – 1,042 regular season games. Hawkins was upset when the Twins sent him back to rookie ball to start the 1992 season, but his grandfather talked him out of quitting with a typical grandfatherly quote, “Where you going to stay? I don’t let quitters stay in my house.” Hawkins was also peeved after the club sent him back to Triple-A early in the 1995 season. Despite a 21 season career, Hawkins has yet to win a World Series. He’ll need the Blue Jays to recover from their two-game deficit in the ALDS.

  • Padres GM A.J. Preller will need a new bag of tricks this offseason, writes Corey Brock of MLB.com. Last year, Preller memorably traded many of San Diego’s top prospects for major league reinforcements like Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, and Matt Kemp. The highly visible approach did not pay dividends, and now the club must retool (mostly) without the help of prospect chips. The team is likely to lose Upton and Ian Kennedy via free agency, but most of the core is under contract for 2016. Preller indicated that left-handed bats, left-handed pitching, and a true shortstop may be among the top priorities.
  • The Rockies have a familiar problem to address this offseason – starting pitching. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that the rotation was actually worse than the 2014 version. Rockies starters posted a league worst 5.27 ERA and 4.87 FIP this season. Last year, they were second worst with a 4.89 ERA although their 4.54 FIP was still ranked last. Colorado pitchers certainly work with a handicap (called Coors Field), but the club needs to eventually figure out a way to get better pitching. GM Jeff Bridich seems to be betting on the current staff, per Saunders. Agent Scott Boras offered his own opinion, saying “They have to find a top, veteran arm…They have good, young pitchers. But they have before, too. And they’re all three (years) and out.”

NL West Notes: Leake, Kennedy, Anderson

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Reports have already indicated that the Giants will have interest in retaining Mike Leake beyond this season, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds a division rival to the mix of teams expected to pursue the right-hander (Twitter link). Per Nightengale, the D-Backs, in addition to the Giants, will show interest in Leake as a free agent once the season ends. Arizona is known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades, and Leake would certainly add some stability; he’s shown the ability to thrive in a homer-friendly setting in Cincinnati, thanks in part to strong ground-ball tendencies, and he of course is familiar with Arizona, having played his college ball at ASU. Leake wouldn’t be the top-of-the-rotation fix the D-Backs have previously mentioned, but he’d be a nice source of 30-plus starts and about 200 innings to pencil into the rotation behind Patrick Corbin. Leake said Wednesday evening that he hopes to make a quick decision in free agency rather than spend a lengthy period of time feeling out the market. He did call it a “strong possibility” that he’d have interest in returning to the Giants, though he stopped short of saying he considered them an early favorite in free agency.

Here’s more from the NL West…

  • Yesterday might have marked Ian Kennedy’s final start as a member of the Padres, and if it did, he ended his San Diego tenure with a flourish, writes MLB.com’s Corey Brock. Kennedy, a free agent after the season, allowed one run on five hits and no walks with 11 strikeouts in six innings versus the Brewers. “There’s plenty of opportunities to talk,” Kennedy replied when asked about his potential departure from the Padres. “I think [general manager] A.J. [Preller] and [agent Scott Boras] have a good relationship. I feel I have the same relationship with him [Preller].” Kennedy will likely be the recipient of a qualifying offer, per Brock, and I can’t personally envision him accepting the one-year deal. Kennedy added that he thoroughly enjoyed his time in San Diego but is “excited” to see what awaits on the open market. As Brock notes, he’s the lone pitcher in the NL to make 30-plus starts in each of the past six seasons, and he also posted a 2.63 ERA over his final 17 starts, so interest in Kennedy should be strong.
  • Brett Anderson’s final start of the season was also a strong one, writes the O.C. Register’s Bill Plunkett. And, in making that final start, he positioned himself to be added to the Dodgers’ postseason rotation after some recent struggles and earned himself some extra cash, as Anderson will earn $2.4MM worth of incentives on top of his $10MM base salary based on innings pitched. The oft-injured southpaw discussed with Plunkett what it means to him to have completed a full, healthy season. “For all of the stuff I’ve been through the last handful of years to be able to make pretty much every start they asked me to is pretty special,” said Anderson. “Zack [Greinke] and Clayton [Kershaw] make it look easy, but double-digit wins in the big leagues is a tough thing to do [Anderson won 11] so I take pride in that.” Of course, more than pride was at stake, as Anderson will hit the open market looking for a multi-year deal this winter.
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