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Hunter Pence

Extension Candidate: Hunter Pence

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Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has authored eight extensions since taking charge in November of 2008, so it's only natural to assume he'll attempt to lock up summer acquisition Hunter Pence.  Let's discuss Pence's situation.

Pence

Pence, 28, had the best year of his career in 2011 with a .314/.370/.502 line in 668 plate appearances.  He's averaged 156 games over the last four seasons, with right field defense generally regarded as a positive.  Pence, a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council, has four years and 156 days of Major League service time.  That means he's already been arbitration eligible twice, with two more times to go.  Pence's agency won a hearing last February, scoring a $3.4MM raise to a $6.9MM salary.  The Astros had submitted a $5.15MM figure.  In unparalleled work done exclusively for MLBTR, Matt Swartz projected an even bigger raise this time, taking Pence to approximately $11.1MM for 2012.

In his prime and two seasons away from free agency, Pence may not necessarily be motivated to sign long-term at a big discount.  $23MM could work for his two arbitration years.  It'd be difficult to make a case that Pence deserves Ryan Braun/Matt Kemp money to buy out free agent years, which would be $19-21MM a season.  The $17-18MM range we saw with Jayson Werth and Matt Holliday could work, though those seven-year deals were reached by Scott Boras on the open market.  Pence might be able to get a six-year free agent deal if he remains consistent in 2012-13.  If the Phillies are willing to buy out six free agent years now at $16MM apiece, the total eight-year commitment could approach $120MM.  I think the floor for a Pence contract has to be five free agent seasons at $15MM each, bringing a seven-year deal to almost $100MM.

Pence turns 29 in April.  He one shot at a huge long-term deal in his career, and if he signs now, $100MM is a reasonable target.  The Phillies probably consider Cole Hamels a more pressing concern, but another big year from Pence will either drive the price higher or close the door on a long-term extension altogether.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Central Notes: Fister, Pence, Cubs

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A few items of note regarding teams from MLB's Central divisions, as the Cards fall behind the Phils in Game 1 of the NLDS.

  • The Tigers preferred Doug Fister to Ubaldo Jimenez when they were shopping for a pitcher before the trade deadline, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. Whether that's true, we'll probably never know, but Fister certainly pitched better for Detroit than Jimenez did for Cleveland after the deadline. The Mariners were originally hesitant to move Fister, according to Knobler, but Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was persistent in pursuing the right-hander.
  • The Reds tried to acquire Hunter Pence from the Astros, according to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News, and GM Walt Jocketty has said he thought he made a better offer to Houston than the one it eventually accepted from the Phillies. McCoy reports that the Astros wanted Devin Mesoraco and adds that lefty Aroldis Chapman was not available.
  • The Cubs remain in limbo while waiting to hire a new general manager, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, who notes that the fates of manager Mike Quade, his coaches, and several players are up in the air until someone takes the helm. The Cubs are unlikely to spend lavishly this offseason, according to Sullivan.

Astros Choose Santana To Complete Pence Trade

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The Astros have selected outfield prospect Domingo Santana from the Phillies as the player to be named later to complete the Hunter Pence trade, tweets Alyson Footer. The Astros had previously acquired prospects Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, and Josh Zeid from the Phillies for Pence and $2MM on July 29th.

Santana, 19, is hitting .269/.345/.434 in 391 Low-A plate appearances this year while playing right field and DH.  Baseball America ranked him ninth among Phillies prospects prior to the season, praising his athleticism and raw power.

NL West Notes: Romero, Dodgers, Giants, Padres

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Here's the latest from the NL West…

  • Lefty reliever J.C. Romero is with the Rockies today according to ESPN's Buster Olney (on Twitter), but he has not signed. Troy Renck of The Denver Post says (on Twitter) that Romero will see a doctor and throw a bullpen tomorrow, and if all goes well, he could be added to the roster as soon as Monday. The Yankees released Romero earlier this week.
  • Bill Shaikin of The Los Angeles Times reports that the Dodgers are currently on pace to lose more than $42MM in annual revenue since 2009, their last playoff appearance. Shaikin also has a breakdown of some payments the team made in recent years, including more than $5K for Red Sox tickets.
  • A source told Henry Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle that the Astros asked the Giants for one of their untouchable prospects "plus plus" in exchange for Hunter Pence before the trade deadline (Twitter link).
  • Tyler Kepner of The New York Times wrote about the Padres and their knack for finding relievers in uncommon places, including Josh Spence. The left-hander from Australia has a 1.61 ERA in 22 1/3 innings since being called up, and lefties have hit just .140/.159/.279 off him.
  • Despite a 38-56 record in their lasts 94 games, SI.com's Jon Heyman says (on Twitter) that the job of Rockies manager Jim Tracy is not in jeopardy.

NL East Notes: Braves, Pence, Minor, Beltran, Marlins

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The Phillies sent Bobby Abreu to the Yankees on this date five years ago. Now they're buyers and they have Hunter Pence to show for it. Here's the latest on Pence and his new division…

  • The Braves are working hard to acquire an outfield bat, but there are "still no dance partners" according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter).
  • The Astros sent $2MM (not $1MM) to the Phillies in the Pence deal, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark (on Twitter). The Phillies won't have to pay the luxury tax this way, Stark reports. 
  • Kevin Goldstein and R.J. Anderson of Baseball Prospectus break down the trade that sent Pence to the Phillies.
  • The Braves would have included Mike Minor in a deal for Pence, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter).
  • One executive tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the Braves have six untouchable players (Twitter link).
  • The Mets thought they were going to trade Carlos Beltran to the Rangers earlier in the week, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Texas was being more aggressive than other teams and even though they weren't willing to include elite prospects, the Mets considered a multi-prospect package. Finally, the Giants offered Zack Wheeler and the Mets moved on from the Rangers, who wouldn't budge on certain requests.
  • The Marlins intend to keep Leo Nunez, Omar Infante, Ricky Nolasco and Randy Choate, according to Olney (on Twitter). They've gotten tons of hits on those players, Olney reports.

Hunter Pence Trade Reactions And Fallout

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The Phillies love to make a big splash at the trade deadline and they continued the trend this year by acquiring Hunter Pence from the Astros for Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid, and a player to be named later.  Let's take a look at some reactions to the deal from around the baseball world:

  • Up until late yesterday, the Astros were looking to get even more out of the Phillies, tweets Jayson Stark of ESPN.com.  Houston insisted that the Phillies had to include two more of their top ten prospects, including 2010 first-round pick Jesse Biddle.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. will continue to listen to other teams up until the trade deadline on Sunday, but he's likely done trading after landing Pence, writes Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
  • Astros GM Ed Wade was still talking to other teams until ten minutes before he made the deal with the Phillies, tweets Bob Brookover of Philadelphia Inquirer.
  • Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) believes that the Astros took a considerable risk in dealing Pence.  While they received a ton of potential long-term value, the major prospects coming over in the trade are high-risk, high-reward prospects.
  • Wade's decision to trade Pence certainly isn't a popular one but it is the right move for the organization, writes Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com.
  • Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle writes that it could take two years or longer to fairly judge the return that the Astros got for Pence.
  • Phillies officials have questioned Cosart's maturity in the past, according to John Manuel and Matt Eddy of Baseball America.  Furthermore, the right-hander's command issues led others in the organization to believe he was destined wind up in the bullpen.  However, Cosart had the best pure arm in the Phillies' system.

Phillies Acquire Hunter Pence

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Last year it was Roy Oswalt, the year before Cliff Lee.  This year, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. continued his July 29th big-game hunting by landing All-Star right fielder Hunter Pence and $2MM from the Astros for prospects Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, and Josh Zeid, as well as a player to be named later.  The Phillies confirmed the deal through a press release.

Pence

Pence, 28, was hitting .309/.356/.472 in 430 plate appearances entering tonight's game at Milwaukee.  He plays an average right field, based on UZR data since 2010.  Perhaps the face of the Astros franchise, Pence was not initially thought to be available this summer with the Astros in the middle of an ownership transfer.  He's much more than a rental, with $2.3MM remaining on his contract this year and team control through 2013.  Pence's agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council had a big arbitration win in January, bringing his 2011 salary to $6.9MM and raising the bar for '12 and '13.  The right-handed hitting Pence (pictured) fits perfectly into right field for the Phillies, who rank 14th in the NL with a .665 OPS against lefties after losing Jayson Werth during the offseason. The Braves, Indians, Reds, Red Sox, and Pirates were also in on Pence this month.

Cosart, 21, ranks as high as 17th by ESPN's Keith Law and as low as 43rd by Baseball America among the game's prospects.  He dealt with an elbow injury last year, but has the electric fastball and plus curveball of a future front-rotation starter.  Added bonus: he grew up just south of Houston, in League City, Texas.

Cosart's High-A teammate Jonathan Singleton, 19, was ranked #24 by Law and #41 by BA.  Law says Singleton has "one of the best swings in the minors."  Zeid, a 24-year-old Double-A righty, was ranked 23rd among Phillies prospects by BA prior to the season and has been exceptional out of the bullpen this year.  The player to be named later won't be a top prospect, tweets ESPN's Jayson Stark, and will come from a list of players currently in Low-A ball.  

In acquiring Cosart and Singleton, Astros GM Ed Wade added a couple of excellent prospects to a farm system generally regarded as one of the five worst in baseball prior to the season.  Whether or not the move is popular with fans, it's the right direction for the Astros.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi broke the story, with Jayson Stark, Jim Salisbury, and Jon Heyman adding detail.  Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Phillies To Acquire Hunter Pence

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8:54pm: Pitching prospect Josh Zeid will also go to the Astros in the deal, tweets Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly.  SI's Jon Heyman adds that the Astros will pay $1MM to the Phillies in the trade.

8:42pm: The Astros are also sending cash to the Phillies in the deal, tweets ESPN's Jayson Stark.

8:16pm: Pence has been removed from tonight's game against the Brewers, tweets MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.  He's getting hugs in the dugout.

7:49pm: The Phillies are close to acquiring Pence, tweets Rosenthal.  He says a deal is expected to be completed tonight.  Jon Paul Morosi tweets that first baseman Jonathan Singleton and righty Jarred Cosart are in the deal.  Rosenthal says the Astros will also get two players to be named later in the deal – one of whom may be announced tonight – and they are not major prospects.

6:42pm: The Phillies and Astros are progressing toward a deal for right fielder Hunter Pence, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  He says talks "are to point where another team will need to trump the Phillies with a superior package," and agrees with ESPN's Buster Olney that the Braves are still trying.  Jerry Crasnick tweets that the Braves still think they're right in the race for Pence.

Hunter Pence Very Likely To Be Traded?

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We learned yesterday that the Astros are deep into trade talks for Hunter Pence and that a deal could be completed today. The Phillies, who appear to be willing to include Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton and others in a deal, may have a Friday pre-deadline for reaching an agreement, so that the Astros have time to explore deals with other suitors, like the Braves, Reds and Red Sox. The Pirates, Rangers and Angels aren't seriously in the mix at this point. Here are today's rumors with the latest updates up top:

  • The Braves are looking to be creative and are still involved, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.
  • Pence is very likely to be moved now, tweets SI's Jon Heyman.  He believes the Phillies are the favorite, with the Indians, Red Sox, and Reds also in.
  • A two-team swap remains the Astros' focus, reports MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.  Indeed, ESPN's Jayson Stark says there's no more talk of three-team deals.
  • The Braves have not considered Pence a priority, reports MLB.com's Mark Bowman.  However, Ken Rosenthal tweets that they seek an athletic corner bat who is controlled beyond this year, and Pence fits that description.  
  • The Phillies currently have no intention of putting Brown in a deal for Pence, tweets Buster Olney.
  • Jon Heyman of SI.com suggests the Phillies will continue negotiating with the Astros until Sunday if they need to, since Pence "is the guy" for them (Twitter link).
  • The Astros want pitching for Pence, according to Heyman (on Twitter).
  • The Phillies and Astros are exploring potential three-team deals involving Pence, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. Jon Heyman of SI.com and Joel Sherman of the New York Post agree (Twitter links). The Phillies may be willing to trade Brown to a third team to get the prospects the Astros want for Pence, Stark writes.
  • The Braves offered a package that included prospects they didn’t offer to the Mets for Carlos Beltran, but the Astros turned the offer down, according to Stark. The Braves may be moving on, which would leave the Phillies as Pence’s primary suitor.  The Red Sox, Reds, Pirates and Indians appear to have peeled off, according to Stark.
  • Jon Heyman of SI (via Twitter) hears that the Astros don't love the Phillies' prospects, and that may even include Domonic Brown.
  • Houston is still playing the Pence market and working to bring other teams into the mix besides the Phillies, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
  • The Astros would prefer to deal Pence to the Braves, but Atlanta continues to be very protective of their big-time pitching prospects, tweets Jon Heyman of SI.  The Phillies are still working to get something done.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the Astros prefer the Braves' prospects to the Phillies' prospects (Twitter link). Atlanta won't give up the "key guy," who is believed to be Mike Minor, Sherman writes.
  • ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports that the Braves, generally speaking, have zero enthusiasm about giving up Minor, Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino or Randall Delgado (Twitter link).
  • Pence was told during last night's game that he was being pulled because of a trade, then wasn't pulled, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
  • The Reds are in on Pence, but he's the Phillies' to lose, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
  • There's a sense that the Phillies might be able to obtain Pence by offering Domonic Brown instead of Singleton and including Cosart in the deal, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
  • The Astros still have an "unreasonable" asking price for Pence, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
  • There's a "huge bidding war" going on for Pence, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter links). The Braves don't value on-base percentage as much as other teams, one NL official told Olney (Pence has a .354 OBP).

Hunter Pence Rumors: Thursday

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Yesterday we learned that the Phillies offered Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, and a second-tier pitching prospect for Hunter Pence, but the Astros did not pull the trigger.  Domonic Brown may have been available as well, but it appears Pence will remain with Houston until the offseason at least.  The latest:

  • The Astros are deep into trade talks and could deal Pence as soon as Friday, according to Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle, who confirms that the Phillies are the leading candidate to acquire the outfielder.
  • The Astros are "mulling" the Braves' offer for Pence, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark (on Twitter). The Braves' offer is "significant" and is built around highly-regarded pitching prospects, but does not include Julio Teheran, according to Stark.
  • The Phillies are making progress toward a deal for Pence, but they'll have to reach an agreement by Friday or the Astros will move on to other suitors, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The Phillies would include Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton in a deal for Pence, according to FOX. The Astros prefer younger prospects and Domonic Brown is not currently in the trade. The Braves, who have "more restrictions" on their prospects, would enter the fray along with the Reds and Red Sox if the Phillies don't complete a deal.
  • The Phillies have been Pence's most serious suitor and the Braves have a high level of interest as well, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The Angels aren't seriously pursuing Pence and the Astros may be reluctant to trade Pence to the Reds and Pirates, two NL Central rivals.
  • The Phillies and Braves continue pursuing Pence and the Indians are still involved, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter links). There's a better than 50/50 chance of a deal. The Rangers aren't seriously pursuing Pence, however.
  • The Astros appear to be moving closer to trading Pence, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Six teams are involved, but no deal is imminent.
  • The Phillies' hope that the Astros will move Pence seems to be holding up the Phils' conversations with the Padres about Ryan Ludwick and Mike Adams, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.  Olney's colleague Jayson Stark adds that interest in Pence is exploding since the Beltran trade, naming the Phillies, Braves, Reds, and Red Sox as suitors.
  • Interest in Pence has picked up considerably with Carlos Beltran off the market, reports Danny Knobler of CBS Sports.
  • As many as eight teams are in on Pence, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, including the Phillies and Braves.  Rosenthal says the Astros are listening.
  • The Braves are the last team in on Pence, tweets SI's Jon Heyman.  The Phillies "seem to have all but given up" on Pence after their big offer was rejected.
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