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Hunter Dozier

Hunter Dozier Tests Positive For COVID-19

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Royals outfielder Hunter Dozier will open the season on the coronavirus-specific injured list. The club announced that he has tested positive for COVID-19.

This is obviously quite disappointing (and rather worrisome) news to receive, particularly on the eve of Opening Day. Dozier will be sidelined until he’s able to clear the virus from his system and register two positive tests. He says he is experiencing some symptoms. Hopefully, he’s able to make a swift and full recovery.

It’s concerning also that Dozier has been active with his teammates this week. He has obviously been isolated since receiving the test results, but it’s hypothetically possible he could’ve transmitted the virus to others in the organization before that time. It isn’t yet known if any other personnel came into such close contact with Dozier that isolation will be required.

Dozier, who’ll soon turn 29, entered 2020 hoping to build on a breakout effort last year. The first-round pick finally made good on his original promise, turning in a .279/.348/.522 batting line with 26 home runs and a league-leading ten triples over 586 plate appearances. While he benefited from a lofty .339 BABIP, Dozier backed it up with excellent exit velocity and sprint speed.

The news will dent Dozier’s earning abilities after the season, when he’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time. And it’ll hurt the Royals’ hopes for a surprise run in 2020. The added opportunity will open the door for a variety of other players for at least a few weeks. The newly acquired Franchy Cordero should be in line for significant action, with players such as Bubba Starling and Brett Phillips perhaps also seeing increased chances.

The Royals’ Outfield Of Infielders

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Alex Gordon’s story is familiar to most baseball fans. The No. 2 overall draft pick in 2005 was soon ranked the game’s No. 2 overall prospect by Baseball America. With a lefty-swinging third baseman being touted as the next face of the franchise, George Brett parallels were (unfairly) drawn. The hype was substantial, and when Gordon arrived on the scene, he struggled to live up to those lofty expectations.

Gordon was worth 4.8 WAR through his first two big league seasons, per both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. His next two seasons were miserable — shortened by torn cartilage in his hip (2009) and a fractured thumb (2010). By the time he’d made it through four MLB campaigns, Gordon owned a career .244/.328/.405 (93 wRC+). Defensively, his work at third base wasn’t well regarded (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, -4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating). He began ceding playing time to Alberto Callaspo at third base and was moved to left field during the 2010 season.

The Royals remained patient, however, and Gordon rewarded that faith was a massive breakout in 2011. Suddenly Gordon looked like the franchise cornerstone everyone had hoped. He hit .303/.376/.502 (140 wRC+) and, perhaps even more surprisingly, graded out as one of the best defensive left fielders in recent history (+20 DRS, +12.2 UZR). Almost overnight, Gordon was a six-WAR player. He settled in as an OBP machine with elite defense, solid baserunning and some pop in his bat, and Gordon’s production was a significant factor in Kansas City’s consecutive World Series appearances in 2014-15.

We’re coming up on a decade of Gordon in left field. He’s seen Jarrod Dyson, Alex Rios, Lorenzo Cain, Nori Aoki and numerous others cycle through the other outfield slots, but Gordon has remained the constant. And now, as the organization works to emerge from its rebuild in the next couple of seasons, the third-baseman-turned-star-left-fielder is joined in the outfield by … another pair of infielders.

Hunter Dozier never carried the same hype as Gordon, although his No. 8 overall selection in 2013 was only six spots behind Gordon’s draft slot. Dozier was a surprise pick there — ultimately a cost-saving selection designed to offer a larger bonus to Sean Manaea a ways later. That’s not to say Dozier wasn’t a well-regarded draft prospect — he was widely expected to be a day one pick — but top 10 overall was still a surprise.

Dozier struggled through much of his time in the low minors before surprising with a huge .296/.366/.533 showing between Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. He parlayed that into his first promotion to the big leagues but appeared in only eight games. An oblique tear and wrist surgery wiped out most of his 2017 season, and when Dozier finally got a big league look in 2018, he hit .229/.278/.395 in 388 plate appearances. His 28.1 percent strikeout rate was among the highest in the league, his 6.2 percent walk rate was low, and his glovework was poorly rated. FanGraphs pegged him at -0.8 WAR; Baseball Reference placed a ghastly -1.7 on his overall efforts.

Still, Dozier felt that he finished out the ’18 season well after missing ’17, telling Lynn Worthy of the K.C. Star in the offseason that he “found” himself again late in the year. That comment might’ve been met with eye-rolls from some fans at the time, but no one’s questioning him now.

In 2019, Dozier cut his strikeout rate by three percentage points, upped his walk rate by the same number and saw upticks in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and launch angle. He swung less often, chased pitches out of the zone at a 30.1 percent clip (compared to 2018’s 35.5 percent) and improved his contact rate. In essence, Dozier stopped chasing so many bad pitches and saw his contact quality improve along with his walk rate. That’s a good recipe for any hitter.

The results speak for themselves. In 586 plate appearances, Dozier broke out with a .279/.348/.522 slash. His 26 home runs topped any of his minor league season totals, and Dozier kicked in another 29 doubles and a whopping 10 triples. That last number is surprising, especially for a player who only swiped two bases, but Dozier actually ranks in the 80th percentile among MLB hitters in terms of average sprint speed.

Defense still seemed to be problematic, though. Despite making strides, his work at third was rated below average, and the Royals eventually began giving Dozier some looks in right field. That sprint speed would certainly play well in the outfield, and scouting reports have long since touted his arm strength. MLB.com regularly put a 55 on his arm, while FanGraphs had a 60 on his arm in his final season of prospect eligibility. If Dozier can get comfortable with his outfield reads and keep hitting, there’s little reason to think he can’t be a solid Major League right fielder. And with Maikel Franco signed over the winter to step in at third base, it seems that right field is indeed Dozier’s most obvious path to at-bats.

Manning center field between Gordon and Dozier will be now-former second baseman Whit Merrifield. The two-time stolen base champ and the hits leader in the American League in both 2018 and 2019, Merrifield broke into the big leagues as a 27-year-old second baseman who was never considered a high-end prospect. The former ninth-round pick was considered more of a potential utility option, but he showed his aptitude for hitting almost immediately.

Merrifield’s speed and bat-to-ball skills were on display almost immediately in the Majors, and by the midway point of the 2017 season it was clear that he was far more than a utility option — lack of fanfare surrounding his arrival in the Majors or not. In his three full MLB seasons, Merrifield has hit .298/.348/.454 with 47 home runs, 116 doubles, 19 triples and 99 stolen bases. And despite having more than 3000 innings of quality glovework at second base under his belt, Merrifield appears to be the Royals’ first answer for the their current center field void.

That’s more a testament to Merrifield’s versatility than anything else. His ability to slide into center field will allow the club a longer look at Nicky Lopez at second base, although Merrifield will surely still see some reps at second base at various points whenever play resumes.

If that experiment doesn’t work, though, it seems likelier that it’ll be due to struggles of Lopez at second base than because of Merrifield’s work in center. Merrifield has already given the Royals more than 1100 innings of roughly average defense across all three outfield spots. Similarly, if Franco proves unable to tap into the potential he once showed, Dozier could either move back to the hot corner or the organization could take a look at Kelvin Gutierrez in a full-time role at third base.

That Dozier and Merrifield could line up in the outfield on a fairly regular basis certainly doesn’t bode well for out-of-options outfielders Brett Phillips and Bubba Starling. Both may have been in line to make the MLB roster out of camp because of that lack of options, but neither has produced in the Majors. Most are aware of Phillips’ highlight-reel arm and penchant for eye-popping assists, but his strikeout levels have been alarming. Starling, a former top 10 pick himself, has yet to deliver on the raw ability that led to that draft status. Both will get some looks in the outfield, and on those days, Dozier and Merrifield can slot back into the infield as needed.

At various points in recent years, the Royals likely envisioned both Dozier and Merrifield holding down key spots in the lineup, but slotting in alongside Gordon in the outfield probably wasn’t the way they had things scripted. The team’s willingness to move players around has panned out in the past, though, and their ability to do so with Merrifield and Dozier could allow them to get a look at several young options around the field.

Quick Hits: NC Dinos, Rucinski, Royals, Orioles, Holt

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The NC Dinos of the Korean Baseball Organization have brought back pitcher Drew Rucinski on a one-year, $1MM deal with a $200K signing bonus, per Dan Kurtz of myKBO.net (via Twitter). The team also announced the deal on their twitter account. Rucinski, who turns 31 on Monday, last played in the states for the Marlins in 2018, putting up a 4.33 ERA/3.81 FIP across 32 appearances out of the pen. For the Dinos in 2019, he threw 177 1/3 innings of 3.05 ERA baseball, striking out 119 batters to 49 walks. On a slow news day, chew on these quick hits from the AL…

  • The Royals are not shy about how they value the versatility of players like Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier. Their recent signing of Maikel Franco attempts to take advantage of said versatility, with Dozier planned to move to right field to make room for the former Phillie, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. Merrifield, meanwhile, is likely to lead off and play centerfield. The Royals have attempted to lengthen their lineup this offseason, and while it’s not the most daunting group, Kansas City expects better years out of Franco, Nicky Lopez, and Ryan O’Hearn, who all struggled mightily in 2019. Improvement is a low bar for this trio, and unless they make significant strides, it’s hard to imagine the Royals making much noise in the American League.
  • The Orioles made some additions to their coaching staff while shifting around a good chunk of the incumbent staff. Chris Holt, however, has taken on an entirely new role in the organization as the new Director of Pitching, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Holt was formerly the minor league pitching coordinator after defecting from Houston, but his new role will allow him the freedom to assist pitching coach Doug Brocail in implementing much of the data that accompanied GM Mike Elias to the organization. Holt will continue to spend much of his time with the minor leagues, but his new role will allow him to see his development projects through all the way to the bigs.

Latest On Royals’ Offseason Plans

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The Royals are still grinding through a rebuild and are undergoing a transition at the ownership level, so it never seemed likely they’d be big players on the open market. The club’s precise plans have remained a mystery, but we’re now finally beginning to get a sense of the shape of the Kansas City offseason.

Kansas City fans won’t likely see much in the way of exciting new talent in 2020, as Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that the organization has a “very limited budget” to work with. A decent chunk of what the club has made available is expected to go to veteran outfielder Alex Gordon, with the remainder to be allocated to some pitching additions. That’s not an especially inspiring offseason wish list for an organization that hasn’t posted a winning record since its 2015 World Series-winning effort.

[RELATED: Kansas City Royals Offseason Outlook]

While some lean years always seemed likely to follow that push, the Dayton Moore-led front office has largely declined to cash in veterans when opportunities have arisen. Players such as Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Whit Merrifield, and even Salvador Perez would for many teams have been trade bait. Even as the team has strongly indicated a desire for a quick bounce back to relevance — it has touted recent collegiate draft selections and there was even mid-season chatter in 2019 of a Wild Card run — it has been difficult to envision that happening based upon the present assemblage of talent.

The concept of a quick revamping would seem to call for some infusion of MLB talent from outside the organization. But that’s not the only way the club can spend money this winter. Other reporting indicates that the club may believe in its budding new core, but will wait at least another year to add to it.

Though they won’t be spending to add from the outside, the Royals will consider plunking down cash to secure the services of existing players into the future, according to MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter). He lists Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier, and Adalberto Mondesi as conceivable extension candidates. One might speculatively add hurler Brad Keller to that group as well.

Of that slate of possibilities for long-term deals, only Soler is nearing the open market. While the 27-year-old has finally hit his stride, it’s debatable how wise it would be to lock into a bat-first corner outfielder. But there’s certainly merit to pursuing a deal at the right price. The other players listed have even more still to prove, though Mondesi does offer tantalizing upside as an extension candidate.

It remains to be seen whether talks will advance. There won’t be much of an impact on the 2020 outlook regardless. (It’s not terribly promising.) The most interesting question remaining, then, is whether the Royals will make a dedicated effort to find deals to move Duffy, Kennedy, or (especially) Merrifield.

Royals Activate Hunter Dozier

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The Royals have activated third baseman Hunter Dozier from the 10-day injured list and optioned outfielder Jorge Bonifacio to Triple-A Omaha.

Dozier’s back after missing three weeks with chest tightness. The 27-year-old performed like one of the majors’ breakout stars over the season’s first two months, posting a .314/.398/.589 line with 11 home runs in 216 plate appearances. Dozier significantly slashed his swinging-strike, chase and strikeout rates along the way, and drew walks at a 12 percent clip.

Among hitters who have totaled at least 200 trips to the plate this year, Dozier ranks eighth in wRC+ (157, tied with Freddie Freeman and Pete Alonso) and 10th in weighted on-base average (.413). Dozier’s expected wOBA sits at a much lower .379, though it’s still an impressive figure in its own right.

The production Dozier has recorded this year is what the Royals had in mind when they spent the eighth overall pick in the 2013 draft on him. Dozier didn’t do much in the majors or minors over the previous couple years, but his output this season has reportedly made him one of the only untouchable members of the rebuilding Royals’ roster.

Health Notes: Zimmermann, Nimmo, Marlins, Smith, Wood, Dozier

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Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, currently on the mend after suffering a UCL sprain, looks to be nearing his return, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. On Thursday, Zimmermann threw 4 2/3 innings in a rehab start for Triple-A Toledo, coming away pleased with the 69 pitches he threw and declaring his readiness to rejoin the Major League rotation for his next start. Whether that will actually come to fruition is up to the Tigers’ brass, though manager Ron Gardenhire seemed hesitant to welcome back a pitcher whose limited workload could lead to more bullpen days, which the team is trying to avoid. Regardless, the 33-year-old’s return looks to be just around the corner, certainly a promising development for a team that has had to patch together a starting staff after withstanding injuries to four-fifths of its Opening Day rotation.

Here are the latest updates on other injuries from around baseball…

  • Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo is going to consult more specialists about the bulging disc in his neck, tweets Tim Healey of Newsday. Nimmo has been sidelined with that same injury since May 20, and the latest is a troubling development for an organization that has been maligned for its handling of players’ injuries. At this time, there is still no timeline for when Nimmo might be cleared to return.
  • Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith has been cleared to begin a throwing program, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Smith landed on the 10-day IL on June 7 thanks to inflammation in his left hip, but it doesn’t appear that the injury will keep him out much longer, as Smith is on track to return in late June. The 27-year-old southpaw has quietly emerged as a promising starter for the Marlins, having struck out 82 batters in 62 innings of work. Over the last two seasons in Miami, Smith has posted an impressive 3.83 ERA in 143 1/3 innings.
  • Hunter Dozier will spend the next three days rehabbing with the Royals’ Double-A affiliate, according to Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com, who adds that Dozier will later join Triple-A Omaha after the birth of his child. The next step following that is to work his way back to the MLB club, which is good news for the Royals, who originally tabbed Dozier to return in late June. It looks like that timeline is still a realistic target for the third baseman, who has emerged as one of Kansas City’s few untouchable pieces and an All-Star candidate in the American League.
  • Another promising update for the Reds, with left-hander Alex Wood nearing a rehab assignment, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, who tweets that the southpaw has a live BP session on Tuesday, which could lead to a minor-league rehab stint if all goes well. Wood, 28, has been dealing with lower back soreness that has put his Reds debut on hold. However, it looks as if that time could come around the All-Star break for the former Dodger.

Royals Place Hunter Dozier On 10-Day IL

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The Royals have placed third baseman Hunter Dozier on the 10-day injured list, per a club announcement. It’s backdated to May 31st, meaning Dozier could be activated by June 10th.

Details of the injury aren’t really clear, though Dozier has been limited by chest tightness. It seems to be a relatively minor muscular issue. The hope was that he’d bounce back quickly enough without an IL placement, but that obviously proved optimistic.

Any disruption to Dozier’s current run is unwelcome. The former top draft pick had failed to accomplish much at all in the majors until breaking out early this season at 27 years of age.

Through 216 plate appearances this season, Dozier carries a .314/.398/.589 slash with 11 home runs and 41:26 K/BB ratio. He still needs to prove that he can keep things up, particularly as opposing pitchers increasingly focus on him as a threat, but it’s obviously quite a promising run of results.

It doesn’t seem as if the present injury will present much of an obstacle. While Dozier is down, the Royals will presumably rely upon the just-recalled Cheslor Cuthbert at the hot corner. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Kelvin Gutierrez come back up to help fill out the infield mix; promoting him would not require a 40-man roster move.

Royals Reportedly Ready To Trade “Nearly Anybody”

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With just a 19-39 record to show for the 2019 season, the Royals have the second-worst record in baseball, and are already looking ahead to next year.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that Kansas City is open to trading “nearly anybody on their roster,” with the obvious exception of a few key young players.  Adalberto Mondesi and Hunter Dozier are two of “the select untouchables,” though it seems as if K.C. is willing to at least discuss anyone else.

This includes Whit Merrifield, despite the fact that the super-utilityman just signed a $16.25MM contract extension with the Royals before the season.  As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained at the time of the deal, however, Merrifield’s extension was something of a unique circumstance, as the contract only extended Kansas City’s control over Merrifield by as much as one free agent season (via a club option for the 2023 campaign) and thus didn’t offer much financial risk to the Royals beyond what Merrifield likely would have earned anyway in his arbitration years.  From Merrifield’s perspective, he was able to lock in at least one big guaranteed payday in his late-blooming career, as Merrifield is already in his age-30 season.

From a trade perspective, that extension also makes Merrifield all the more attractive as a long-term piece for interested suitors.  He is enjoying another strong year at the plate, hitting .300/.355/.508 over 262 plate appearances, with seven homers and a league-high seven triples to go along with eight stolen bases.  Merrifield has significantly increased his pop (a .208 Isolated Slugging mark) and hard-hit ball rate (43.1%) from last season, though that latter number offers some promise of regression, as Merrifield’s xwOBA is only .349 (compared to a wOBA of .364).

Merrifield has spent much of his time at second base and right field this season, though he has experience playing everywhere but catcher and pitcher over his four MLB seasons.  His age could be a minor red flag, though between Merrifield’s hitting prowess, defensive versatility, and long-term control, he stands out as one of the better trade chips available this deadline season.  It’s also worth noting that since Merrifield is locked up on an affordable deal, Kansas City is under no particular pressure to deal the 30-year-old unless the club really wants to sell high.  As Feinsand puts it, “the Royals will need to be overwhelmed by an offer to trade” Merrifield.

Besides Mondesi and Dozier, it’s probably safe to assume that other younger, club-controlled Royals players (i.e. Brad Keller, Nicky Lopez, Jakob Junis, Jorge Lopez) are also unavailable in trade talks.  Alex Gordon is in the midst of a comeback year, though the veteran has already indicated that he wants to spend his entire career with the Royals, and thus isn’t willing to waive his no-trade production as a 10-and-5 player to approve a swap to a contender.

Beyond that group, any other Royal could potentially be on the trade block.  Feinsald cites such notable names as Jorge Soler, Danny Duffy, and Ian Kennedy, though for the latter two players, the Royals would have to eat a big portion of their remaining contracts to accommodate a deal.

AL Central Notes: Romero, Dozier, White Sox

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Young Twins hurler Fernando Romero is one of several of the club’s pitchers who  could end up in a variety of roles when camp breaks, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. While the rotation appears to be largely settled, perhaps it’s not out of the question that he could force his way into a job there — or, of course, take an opening if there’s an injury. Otherwise, Romero could certainly head back to Triple-A to continue developing and serve as depth. Most intriguingly, though, is the possibility that he’d stay with the MLB club as a reliever. While there’s an argument to be made that doing so now might make it less likely to capture his true upside, the Twins see several elements that make Romero a particularly interesting relief candidate. His prior injury history is one element; it also stands to reason that he’d thrive if allowed to focus on his two best pitches (fastball/slider) in shorter stints. The front office still seems to be contemplating the possibilities — closer competitor? multi-inning piggyback mate for Martin Perez? — with plans to wait and see how things look in Fort Myers.

A few more items from the AL Central …

  • All indications are that the Royals believe they can rebound quickly from a down 2018 season and the loss of their prior slate of core players. That seems optimistic from the outside, but we certainly don’t know all that the club does about its own players. First/third baseman Hunter Dozier is one of several players who seems to have a big opportunity ahead of him, as John Sleezer of the Kansas City Star writes. Though he took his lumps in the big leagues last year, Dozier says he felt a change after he settled in at the game’s highest level. “Once things started clicking,” he says, “I got my confidence back and then it became a lot of fun again.” Of course, while Dozier did boost his performance later in the year, his .247/.287/.453 post-All-Star break slash line does highlight the biggest question facing him from an offseason perspective — i.e., whether he’ll consistently get on base. In the field, the team observed big strides, but it remains to be seen whether Dozier can handle third at even a roughly league-average level. He also graded as a very poor baserunner. Clearly, there’s plenty of risk in this profile, but the Royals still seem to have faith — or, at least, feel they need to use the coming season to see what they have in Dozier and a few other as-yet-unestablished players.
  • As the White Sox continue to chase Manny Machado, Mark Lazerus of The Athletic (subscription link) looks at what that has meant for some of the team’s existing infielders. Yolmer Sanchez and Tim Anderson, could stand to see their own situations disrupted — whether by a loss of playing time, a change of position, or perhaps even a trade. Both Sanchez and Anderson say they are in favor of anything that moves the club closer to putting a championship contender on the field, though the latter certainly did not sound particularly inclined to hand over his slot at shortstop. “I’m not just going to give him shortstop,” says Anderson of a hypothetical acquisition of Machado. “I’m not just going to bow to him. That’ my position. … It’s mine until somebody takes it.” Just what the team’s plans would be if they do secure Machado’s services aren’t clear. Many have wondered whether a promise to play him at short would be part of the bargain, though GM Rick Hahn did suggest the star has indicated he’ll defer to the team’s positional preferences. In any event, the first order of business is to get Manny (or perhaps another star) to sign on — an ongoing priority that Hahn has made no secret of.

Royals Activate Lucas Duda

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The Royals have activated first baseman Lucas Duda from the disabled list and optioned outfielder Paulo Orlando to Triple-A, tweets Rustin Dodd of The Athletic.

Duda had been sidelined since May 14th due to plantar fasciitis. Although manager Ned Yost had initially given reporters a three-week stint as the high end for a DL stint, the recovery obviously took almost twice that long. The injury is often difficult to predict, of course; it’s affected other notable baseball players for unexpected lengths of time, including Albert Pujols, Corey Dickerson, and, recently, Jay Bruce.

Regardless, today’s return gives Duda ample time to establish his value as a potential trade chip for the rebuilding Royals prior to the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of July. After an injury-plagued second half in 2017, the long-time Mets slugger was only able to secure a one-year, $3.5MM pact with Kansas City. Even prior to this season’s injury, Duda hasn’t shown the same type of power output he managed across the 2014-2015 campaigns, when he mashed 57 homers and put up a .249/.350/.483 batting line. His walk rate this year is barely half of his career average, as well. If he can return to form, there are plenty of teams who would likely be interested in adding him for such a small salary.

Notably, 26-year-old Hunter Dozier survived the roster crunch created by Duda’s reinstatement. Though he’s hit just .227/.281/.353 across 128 plate appearances and figures to see a dramatic reduction in his playing time, the team clearly favors him on the active roster over the 32-year-old Orlando, who’s made 907 trips to the plate for the Royals since debuting in 2015.

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