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Braves Select Grant Holmes

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The Braves announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Grant Holmes. Left-hander Ray Kerr was optioned to Triple-A in order to make room for Holmes on the active roster, while Holmes will take the 40-man roster spot of right-hander Huascar Ynoa, who was recalled from the minors and placed on the 60-day injured list with a stress reaction in his right elbow.

Holmes, 28, was a first-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2014 and quickly rose to be a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport. Holmes was swapped alongside Frankie Montas and Jharel Cotton from L.A. to Oakland in the trade that sent Josh Reddick to the Dodgers just before the 2016 trade deadline, and at the time Holmes appeared to be the headliner of the return headed to the A’s. Unfortunately, shoulder problems and ineffectiveness at the upper levels of the minors prevented Holmes from impacting the A’s during his time with the organization, and he was outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster in early 2022.

The right-hander joined the Braves on a minor league deal for the 2023 season and generally pitched well in a relief role with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Gwinnett. In 61 innings of work, Holmes posted a 3.54 ERA with a 28.7% strikeout rate. That was enough for the Braves to re-sign him to a fresh minor league deal ahead of the 2024 season, and he’s once again found success with the club at the Triple-A level, this time in a swing role: in 18 appearances (3 starts) spanning 41 innings, Holmes has dominated to the tune of a 2.63 ERA with an excellent 30.4% strikeout rate in that time. That was clearly enough for the Braves to decide to give Holmes a shot at the big league level, and he’s now poised to make his MLB debut after a decade working his way through the minor leagues.

Headed down to Triple-A in place of Holmes is Kerr, who Atlanta acquired from the Padres alongside Matt Carpenter in a deal over the offseason. The southpaw’s time with the Braves hasn’t gone as the club was surely hoping when they took on Carpenter’s contract to acquire him. In 22 1/3 innings of multi-inning relief work, Kerr has struggled to a 5.64 ERA and 4.40 FIP across ten appearances in the majors. The lefty has appeared to be more effective in shorter bursts, as he has allowed just two runs on nine hits and three walks while striking out eight across nine innings of work when throwing 40 pitches or less in an outing. For now, Kerr figures to head back to Triple-A and wait for his next opportunity to impact the big league bullpen in Atlanta.

As for Ynoa, the talented right-hander flashed exciting upside during the 2021 season with the Braves, when he pitched to a 4.05 ERA in 91 innings of work and struck out 26.9% of batters faced. Unfortunately, the right-hander has pitched just 6 2/3 innings of work in the majors since then and last appeared at the highest level in 2022 due to a number of injuries, including Tommy John surgery. Now it appears Ynoa is headed back to the shelf for what figures to be another extended absence, as the stress reaction in his right elbow will sideline him for at least the next two months.

Braves Option Bryce Elder; Reynaldo Lopez To Open Season As Fifth Starter

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The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve optioned right-handers Bryce Elder and Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett. That follows last week’s option of righty AJ Smith-Shawver and closes the book on Atlanta’s fifth-starter competition. Offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez will open the season as the team’s fifth starter behind Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale, tweets Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

While it’s looked quite likely for some time now that Lopez would get the spot, it’s nonetheless a scenario that would’ve sounded outlandish after the conclusion of the 2023 season. Elder faded down then stretch in the final couple months of the ’23 campaign but was an All-Star last July. Smith-Shawver rose from High-A to the big leagues in a matter of months last season. Lopez, meanwhile, moved to the bullpen early in the 2021 season with the White Sox and has worked as a reliever for the bulk of the past three seasons.

However, even at the time the Braves signed Lopez to a three-year, $30MM contract, they made clear that the plan was going to be to stretch the right-hander out as a rotation option. Atlanta scouts and evaluators are clearly bullish on the right-hander’s power arsenal and feel it can indeed still hold up in a starting capacity. Lopez started 73 games for the ChiSox from 2018-20, so he’s no stranger to the role, but the vast majority of his MLB success has come since moving to short relief stints.

Thus far in camp, he’s at least looked the part of a viable rotation piece. Spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but through 16 2/3 frames Lopez hasn’t done much to hurt his chances. He’s posted a sharp 2.16 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate. Elder has been tagged for 11 runs on 15 hits and six walk with 13 strikeouts through just 12 innings. Ynoa, who’s still making his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery, was slowed early in camp by some shoulder soreness and only made his spring debut on Saturday, tossing one inning. Were it not for the shoulder issue, perhaps he’d have been more firmly in the mix this spring, but he didn’t have the chance to build up and will open the season as a depth option in Gwinnett.

Once Smith-Shawver was optioned a week ago, the competition was largely down to Elder and Lopez. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but after a brilliant start to his 2023 season, Elder limped to a dismal 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 72 innings of the year (14 starts).

Lopez, over the past three seasons, has pitched to a 3.14 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 39% ground-ball rate through 189 innings, most of which has come in a relief setting. He pushed his average fastball velocity up to a career-high 98.4 mph in that role last season, though he’ll likely see that number dip a bit over longer stints as a starter.

Lopez posted a 3.91 ERA in 32 starts for the ’18 White Sox but did so with shaky strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates that prompted metrics like FIP (4.63) and SIERA (4.92) to cast a much less favorable light on his work. The secondary numbers indeed served as a portent for regression; from 2019-20, Lopez was torched for a 5.52 ERA in 210 2/3 innings, thanks largely to pedestrian K-BB numbers and a sky-high 1.88 HR/9 mark.

If Lopez is able to break out as a starter, the three-year, $30MM contract he signed could well look like a bargain. If not, he’s proven over the past few seasons that he can be an impact late-inning reliever, so he could always be shifted back into a one-inning role and deepen an already excellent Atlanta bullpen that features Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee and Lopez’s former White Sox teammate Aaron Bummer.

Braves Sign Luis Guillorme To Major League Deal

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The Braves announced they’ve signed free agent infielder Luis Guillorme to a one-year, $1.1MM contract. Atlanta also avoided arbitration with right-hander Huascar Ynoa, signing him to an $825K deal. Guillorme, a client of MVP Sports Group, has just under five years of MLB service, so Atlanta could control him via arbitration for the 2025 season as well.

Guillorme sticks in the NL East after spending his entire career with the Mets. He played a decade in the New York organization as a former 10th-round draftee. The glove-first infielder debuted in 2018 and got to the big leagues in each of the past six years. While he saw only sporadic action in each of his first three campaigns, Guillorme got a bit more work over the last trio of seasons.

The left-handed hitter combined for a roughly league average .270/.359/.331 slash in 491 plate appearances between 2021-22. Paired with his solid glove throughout the infield, he was a valuable piece off the bench. Guillorme’s offense dropped last year, as he hit .224/.288/.327 across 54 games. After striking out in roughly 14% of his trips over the previous two seasons, Guillorme fanned at a 23.3% clip a year ago.

That drop in offense led the Mets to move on in November. New York non-tendered the 29-year-old in lieu of a $1.7MM projected salary for his penultimate season of arbitration. Guillorme won’t quite reach that level on his deal with Atlanta, but he’ll get another crack in the big leagues.

Guillorme is out of options. Atlanta will have to carry him on the MLB roster or make him available to other teams via trade or waivers. That the Braves guaranteed him $1.1MM indicates they’re likely to carry him on the Opening Day roster. Guillorme can back up the starting infield of Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley. There weren’t many shortstop reps available in Queens thanks to Francisco Lindor, but Guillorme has the ability to handle any infield spot.

Atlanta acquired David Fletcher from the Angels last month. At the time, he seemed the option to replace Nicky Lopez as the depth infielder. The Braves outrighted Fletcher from the 40-man roster not long after the trade, at least raising the possibility of him starting next season at Triple-A Gwinnett.

Ynoa, meanwhile, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1MM salary in his first year of arbitration. He lost all of last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery but could battle for the fifth starter job in camp.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Braves’ Fifth Starter Possibilities

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There’s no question about the top four in the Braves rotation. Atlanta acquired Chris Sale over the weekend to join Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton in a high-upside staff, then promptly extended Sale. The Braves don’t have a set choice for the #5 spot to open the year. It seems that’ll be up for grabs in camp.

On an appearance on The Bill Shanks Show on Tuesday, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the front office was willing to consider a number of options for the last rotation job. “It’ll be open competition for the fifth spot,” he told Shanks. The front office leader name-checked five candidates for the position (albeit without saying it was an exhaustive list): Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López, AJ Smith-Shawver, Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.

Atlanta had a camp battle for the final two spots last spring. They surprisingly tabbed Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, neither of whom had made their MLB debuts, for season-opening roles after impressive Spring Training performances. While neither rookie fared all that well, the Braves are open to again turning to a young arm if they outperform others in the spring.

“We’re going to take the best players,” Anthopoulos said. “We never assume the division. You can lose it or win it by a game, as we saw in 2022 (when) it came down the wire. … We’re going to break with the best team. Like anything, we’ll try to maintain our depth. If there’s a lot of ties or it’s close, we’ll keep our depth. But we’re hopeful these guys are all good in Spring Training and make it hard on us.”

Perhaps an opportunity will arise for the Braves to add a surefire #5 starter within the next couple months. That doesn’t appear to be an organizational priority, however. There seems a good chance Atlanta is content with a camp battle between the group that Anthopoulos referenced. They’ll likely all play roles at some point as injuries necessitate, but we’ll run through the top candidates for the Opening Day job as things currently stand.

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Elder surprisingly emerged as a rotation mainstay for Atlanta a year ago. Despite briefly starting the season with Triple-A Gwinnett, he wound up taking the ball 31 times and tossing 174 2/3 innings — second on the team behind Strider. Elder had a great first half, pitching to a 2.97 ERA en route to an All-Star selection. He didn’t find that same level of success down the stretch, as he surrendered a 5.11 mark in the second half. The Phillies tagged him for six runs in 2 2/3 frames during his only postseason start.

At year’s end, Elder still carried a solid 3.81 ERA. Despite the rough finish, he was a valuable part of Brian Snitker’s pitching staff. It’s nevertheless questionable whether he can replicate a sub-4.00 ERA without missing many bats. Elder had a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate and 9.9% swinging strike percentage a season ago. He’s a ground-ball specialist whose sinker was below the 90 MPH mark on average. It’s a very different profile from the high-octane strikeout stuff of the top four in the rotation (and that of some of his competitors for the #5 job). Anthopoulos pointed out that Elder still has a full slate of minor league options and could start the year in Gwinnett if he doesn’t break camp with the MLB team, as Ian Anderson did in 2023.

López, on the other hand, is certainly going to be on the major league roster. The question is whether that’s in the rotation or the bullpen. Atlanta signed the 30-year-old righty to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal at the start of the offseason. While the price tag wasn’t a surprise, the Braves’ subsequent announcement they might stretch López out as a starter was unexpected.

Teams have used López almost exclusively in relief for the past two and a half seasons. He hasn’t had a full year as a starter since 2019, when he was tagged for a 5.38 ERA in 184 innings for the White Sox. López has shown the durability to hold up from the rotation, topping 180 frames in consecutive seasons for Chicago in 2018-19. The former top prospect has been much more effective when working in shorter stints, though. He owns a 3.02 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout percentage in 131 1/3 innings between a trio of clubs since the start of 2022.

Smith-Shawver, who turned 21 in November, was among the youngest players to reach the majors last season. He got to the big leagues within two years of being drafted out of high school. Smith-Shawver didn’t hold a long-term rotation role, appearing in six games (five starts). He posted a 4.26 ERA through 25 1/3 innings despite middling strikeout and walk rates and seven home runs.

The 6’3″ hurler had a more impressive statistical track record in the minors. He combined for 62 frames between the top three minor league levels, allowing a 2.76 ERA while striking out 31.3% of opponents. Smith-Shawver walked over 13% of batters faced in the minors, so he’s clearly not a finished product. That’s to be expected given his youth. The Braves were impressed enough with the huge swing-and-miss potential he’d shown to carry him in relief on their playoff roster last October. He has two options remaining.

Ynoa, still just 25, pitched at the MLB level from 2019-22. He turned in mid-rotation results (4.05 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk percentage) in 2021, although he was limited to 91 innings thanks to a self-inflicted hand fracture when he punched a dugout wall. He dropped into a depth role by the ’22 season, allowing a 5.68 ERA over 18 Triple-A appearances. He underwent Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of last year. He is expected to be a full participant in Spring Training. The Braves tendered him an arbitration contract but could send him to the minors for another season, as he has one option remaining.

The only player in this quintet who has yet to reach the majors, Waldrep is on a fast track to MLB. Atlanta’s first-round pick a year ago, the hard-throwing righty went from the College World Series in June to Triple-A by September. The Florida product had a brilliant 1.53 ERA while fanning a third of batters faced in his first eight professional starts at four levels (including one appearance in Gwinnett).

Atlanta is among the most aggressive teams in promoting its top prospects. As a college draftee, Waldrep is around nine months older than Smith-Shawver is. He has far less professional experience and isn’t on the 40-man roster, but he was drafted out of a strong program in college baseball’s top conference. Anthopoulos conceded it’d be ideal for both Waldrep and Smith-Shawver to have more developmental time but rhetorically asked, “if they come in and they are so much better than anybody else, how we do deny them?“

Braves Planning To Increase Payroll

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The Braves anticipate increasing their player payroll, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters (including David O’Brien of the Athletic). Chairman Terry McGuirk echoed those sentiments, telling Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that “that ‘glideslope’ that we’re on, we will stay on” in reference to the organization raising payroll in three straight seasons.

Atlanta opened the 2023 campaign with a player payroll in the $203MM range, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their luxury tax figure — which is based on the combined average annual values of a team’s deals — was well higher, estimated around $250MM. The Braves clearly surpassed the $233MM base tax threshold and seem likely to do so again next year, when the first threshold rises to $237MM.

The Braves have around $165MM in guaranteed salaries for next season. Their arbitration class should add between $25MM and $30MM. That could put them within $15-20MM of last year’s season-opening mark before making further additions. Roster Resource projects their CBT number a hair below $237MM.

Even with some kind of uptick in spending, it seems unlikely the Braves would play near the top of the free agent market. That hasn’t been Anthopoulos’ preferred course of action anyhow. Atlanta has been far more aggressive on the trade and extension fronts than in adding free agents from other clubs.

With some measure of flexibility, however, they could be more active than in recent offseasons in sifting through the middle tier. Starting pitching could be the biggest priority. Atlanta has Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton to occupy the top three spots. The final two positions are less settled. Bryce Elder likely has the inside track on the #4 job but struggled down the stretch after an All-Star first half. Kyle Wright will miss the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery.

AJ Smith-Shawver and prospect Hurston Waldrep are high-upside options who could compete for an early-season job. Anthopoulos said today that Huascar Ynoa is expected to be a full go for Spring Training after missing last season to Tommy John rehab (via Toscano). Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd and Michael Soroka are depth options — although Soroka could be non-tendered — but it’d behoove the Braves to add another source of innings. Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Jack Flaherty are speculative free agent possibilities.

The lineup is a lot more established. Left field is the lone vacancy after the team declined its option on Eddie Rosario. While a free agent pursuit of someone like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or old friend Joc Pederson could be on the table, the Braves have a potential internal upside play. Atlanta has kept Vaughn Grissom in the middle infield, hoping the reps will allow his glove to catch up to his advanced bat. With Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia on the roster, there may not be a path to at-bats for Grissom on the infield.

Anthopoulos told reporters that the organization has given thought to getting Grissom experience in left field. If they put that into action during Spring Training, it’d give the right-handed hitter a clearer path to MLB work. Grissom spent most of this year in Triple-A, hitting .330/.419/.501 as a 22-year-old.

Braves Select Four Players, Place Three Others On 60-Day IL

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The Braves announced today that they have selected infielder Ehire Adrianza, outfielder Kevin Pillar, right-hander Jesse Chavez and left-hander Jared Shuster to their 40-man roster. In corresponding moves, right-hander Huascar Ynoa and left-handers Kolby Allard and Tyler Matzek were placed on the 60-day injured list. The Braves already had a couple of vacancies on their 40-man roster, so these IL placements open up three more spots for the four selections and their acquisition of Richard Lovelady from the Royals.

Shuster, 24, will be making his major league debut once he gets into a game. The club came into spring with four rotation spots taken by Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton. It was believed by many that the final spot was going to be a battle between Michael Soroka, Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder. However, Soroka got delayed by an injury and the latter two were simply out-pitched by Shuster and Dylan Dodd. Anderson and Elder were optioned to the minors, then Wright was also delayed by injury. That will seemingly allow for both Shuster and Dodd to crack the rotation early in the season, though Dodd still hasn’t been added. Shuster posted a 3.29 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A last year then a 1.45 ERA here in the spring.

Pillar, 34, has been a glove-first outfielder for most of his career, most of it with the Blue Jays. He was drafted and developed by that club while Alex Anthopoulos, now Atlanta’s president of baseball operations, was with Toronto. Last year, he only got into four games with the Dodgers before a shoulder fracture ended his season. He and Sam Hilliard should serve as reserve outfielders on the bench in Atlanta.

Chavez, 39, is a veteran who will be appearing in his 16th season once he gets into a game. He was twice acquired by the Braves last year and ended up posting a 3.76 ERA over 60 total appearances for three different clubs. He’ll give the club a veteran arm for its relief mix.

Adrianza, 33, is a veteran utility infielder who has played for Atlanta in each of the past two seasons. He’s a career .239/.309/.354 hitter in the big leagues. The club recently decided to option its young shortstops Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake for more seasoning in the minors. That left Orlando Arcia as the starting shortstop and bumped Adrianza up to a bench role.

As for the IL placements, none of those comes as a shock. Ynoa and Matzek both had Tommy John surgery late last year and will be out for most of this season. Allard, meanwhile, suffered an oblique strain a few weeks ago.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Braves Select Michael Tonkin, Seth Elledge

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The Braves announced some roster moves today, selecting the contracts of right-handers Michael Tonkin and Seth Elledge. They also reinstated catcher Manny Piña and righty Huascar Ynoa from the injured list. The 40-man roster is now full.

Both Tonkin and Elledge signed minor league deals with the club last offseason and would have been able to elect minor league free agency today. However, it seems Atlanta was impressed enough by both of their minor league seasons that they wanted to prevent them from getting away and have given each of them spots on the 40-man roster.

Tonkin, 33 next week, got some MLB action with the Twins from 2013 to 2017 but hasn’t made it back to the big leagues since. He has a career 4.43 ERA in 146 1/3 innings from that time. In the years since, he’s bounced around quite a bit, including stints in Japan and with Indy Ball teams. In 2022, he spent the whole season with Triple-A Gwinnett, throwing 48 1/3 innings over 47 appearances. He posted a 3.17 ERA along with excellent rate stats, such as a 36.5% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 50% ground ball rate. He’s out of options but the club evidently thinks there’s a chance he can help the big league bullpen next year.

Elledge, 27 in May, got brief MLB stints with the Cardinals in 2020 and 2021, bizarrely throwing exactly 11 2/3 innings and posting a 4.63 ERA in each of those two campaigns. He was designated for assignment and outrighted in October of last year before joining the Braves on a minor league deal. He made 43 appearances for Gwinnett, tossing 46 1/3 innings with a 3.88 ERA. That came with an excellent strikeout rate of 33.7%. Unlike Tonkin, he does have options remaining and can serve as depth in the minor leagues next season.

As for Piña and Ynoa, those moves are formalities as there is no injured list in the offseason, meaning the club had to either reinstate those players or else cut them from the roster entirely. It was around this time last year when Atlanta signed Piña to a two-year deal. Unfortunately, he required season-ending wrist surgery in May after getting into just five games. As for Ynoa, he underwent Tommy John surgery in September and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. If he hangs onto his roster spot through the winter, he can spend all of next year on the 60-day IL.

Braves Select Silvino Bracho

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The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of righty Silvino Bracho from Triple-A Gwinnett. Atlanta created roster space by optioning lefty Kyle Muller to Gwinnett and by recalling righty Huascar Ynoa and placing him directly on the 60-day injured list. Ynoa had Tommy John surgery earlier this summer.

It’ll be Bracho’s second stint of the season with the Braves. The former D-backs right-hander opened the year in the Red Sox organization but was traded to Atlanta for cash back in June just hours after Boston had designated him for assignment. Bracho tossed a scoreless inning with Atlanta before being designated for assignment a second time and successfully passed through outright waivers, at which point he accepted an assignment to Triple-A and remained with the organization.

Despite not getting much of a look in Boston or Atlanta this season, Bracho has had a strong season in Triple-A. Through 57 1/3 innings, he’s pitched to a sharp 2.67 ERA with an excellent 30.4% strikeout rate against a tiny 4.3% walk rate. During his lone inning with the Braves earlier this summer, Bracho’s heater sat at 94.1 mph, which is a hair above his career 93.4 mph mark.

From 2015-20, Bracho was an up-and-down member of Arizona’s relief corps, showing promise on multiple occasions but never quite displaying the consistency required to stick on the big league staff. He looked to have turned a corner in 2018 when he logged 31 innings of 3.19 ERA ball with an above-average 26.4% strikeout rate, but Bracho tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow during Spring Training 2019 and underwent Tommy John surgery.

The Braves can technically control Bracho for another three years if they choose to keep him on the 40-man roster, but it’s likelier that this will be a short-term addition that’ll give Bracho another chance or two to square off against big league hitters. In the likely event that he’s removed from the 40-man roster, he’ll be able to become a free agent this offseason — fresh off a health and successful showing in Triple-A.

Huascar Ynoa Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The Braves announced that Huascar Ynoa underwent Tommy John surgery this afternoon. The hard-throwing righty had been on optional assignment to Triple-A Gwinnett, but he hadn’t pitched in over two weeks.

Originally a member of the Twins organization, Ynoa was dealt to Atlanta as a rookie-ball prospect in 2017. He reached the majors a couple seasons thereafter, debuting late in 2019. After a couple seasons bouncing on and off the active roster, Ynoa looked to have broken out as a rotation building block early last year. He earned a spot in the starting five and posted a 3.02 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk numbers through his first 44 2/3 innings.

Ynoa’s season was knocked off track in mid-May, however. Following a rough outing, he punched the dugout in frustration. Ynoa fractured a bone in his throwing hand and lost two months to injury. He returned in August but didn’t pitch especially well down the stretch, posting a 5.05 ERA over nine outings. He was relegated to bullpen work in the postseason, and he was diagnosed with inflammation in his throwing shoulder during the NL Championship Series. That ended his campaign, and Ynoa came into 2022 in competition for a rotation spot.

While he secured a spot in the starting five out of the gate, Ynoa was hit hard in his first two outings. Atlanta optioned him back to Gwinnett at that point, and he’s spent most of the year there. Aside from a brief major league recall in mid-August — during which time he spent three days on the active roster and didn’t make an appearance — he’s played the rest of the season with the Stripers. The 24-year-old has started 17 of his 18 outings, pitching to a 5.68 ERA through 77 2/3 innings. Ynoa has punched out an above-average 25.8% of batters faced and induced grounders at a solid 48.1% clip, but he’s also been far too prone to both home runs and walks.

The emergence of Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright and the deadline acquisition of Jake Odorizzi combined to squeeze Ynoa out of the MLB plans. He’d still been on hand as a depth option with a reasonable amount of upside, but the Braves will now have to navigate a hit to that depth. Given the timing of the procedure, it’s likely Ynoa will miss all of next season as well. Tommy John surgery recoveries typically take upwards of 14 months, making it unreasonable to expect he’ll be able to factor in at any point before 2024.

Unfortunately for Ynoa, that he suffered the injury while in Gwinnett means he won’t immediately land on the major league injured list. Players on the minor league IL aren’t paid at an MLB rate, nor do they collect major league service time. It’s possible the Braves eventually recall Ynoa and place him on the major league 60-day IL, which would remove him from the 40-man roster. That’d involve paying him at the MLB rate, but the hurler will be paid a Triple-A salary unless that happens.

The 2022 campaign was Ynoa’s final minor league option year. That means the Braves will either need to carry him on the MLB injured list to start next season or make him available to other teams via trade or release waivers.

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