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Howie Kendrick

Free Agent Faceoff: Ian Desmond vs. Howie Kendrick

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If your club is in need of some veteran middle infield talent, the market begins with two names: Ian Desmond and Howie Kendrick. The former is a shortstop and the latter a second baseman, and neither has really spent much big league time at other positions, so they aren’t exactly direct competitors. But it’s still interesting to consider which qualifying offer-bound free agent is best situated to cash in at this stage of the winter.

It long seemed like Desmond would be the more hotly pursued of the two players. He offers a rare power/speed combination for a shortstop and has been one of the game’s most valuable players at the position — including a .264/.317/.443 slash and over twenty home runs per season — since breaking out in 2012.

Desmond is also a more valuable defender than most realize. He’s received average metrics, give or take, with his strong range and powerful arm helping to make up for a steady helping of errors. And Desmond is not only a solid stolen base threat, but a highly-rated overall baserunner.

At 30 years of age, the highly-respected Desmond seems well-situated to cash in. There’s no denying that 2015 was a down year. After rating as a 3.5 to 4.5 WAR player for each of the three prior seasons, Desmond accumulated just 2.0 rWAR and 1.7 fWAR as he struggled at the plate and in the field. On the other hand, that doesn’t look like a terrible downside scenario, and the highly athletic veteran ought to age well physically. I predicted he’d have to settle for $70MM to secure a fifth guaranteed year, while MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes felt he could reach $80MM over that term.

Kendrick is a bit older at 32, and plays the less valuable position defensively. But if Desmond feels like a player whose upside comes with some risk, then Kendrick seems to be a steadier option — at least at the plate.

While he’s never put up a monster offensive season, Kendrick owns a .289/.332/.418 slash since becoming a full-time regular in 2010. And he’s never strayed too far from that line:  Kendrick has been a more-or-less league-average or better hitter in each of the last nine seasons. While he’s more of a 10/10 than a 20/20 type, he has topped out at 18 home runs and 14 stolen bases.

Kendrick has generally been a steady defender, with most of his campaigns ending in the black in the estimation of UZR and DRS, though he did slip in that regard last year. His baserunning isn’t an asset, overall, but isn’t a hindrance either.

In the aggregate, Kendrick offers reasonable expectations of being a quality, first-division regular. And when the stars have aligned, as in 2011 and 2014, he’s been even more than that. He ended 2015 with injury issues, and while they don’t figure to linger, that did seem to take some momentum out of his market. Dierkes predicted that Kendrick would be able to score four years and $50MM on the open market.

As always, demand is critical. We’ve heard varying degrees of interest from various clubs in both players. But clearly, neither has been targeted as strongly as might have been hoped. Then again, while there’s always a danger for a player of the music stopping with no chairs left, both Desmond and Kendrick seem to have plausible landing spots. The question, though, is how much leverage they’ll have to command the deals that were originally expected.

So, which player do you think is the more valuable free agent asset as things stand in the market?

Diamondbacks Trying To Trade Aaron Hill

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The Diamondbacks are attempting to trade veteran infielder Aaron Hill, Jon Heyman tweets. Earlier this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Diamondbacks were looking to trade a second baseman, potentially clearing space for the team to sign free agent Howie Kendrick. The D-backs have other second basemen who might be more attractive in a trade, like Chris Owings and Brandon Drury, but it appears Hill is the one they’re looking to deal.

Of course, as Heyman points out, trading Hill won’t be easy. For one thing, the middle infield market is still relatively robust, with Kendrick, Ian Desmond, Jimmy Rollins and others still available. Also, Hill is owed $12MM in 2016 and is coming off two straight poor seasons at the plate. He batted .230/.295/.345 in 2015, a line that was bad but not markedly worse than his 2014 performance. And while defensive metrics once marked him as a plus second baseman, they’ve downgraded him to average or slightly below average in recent seasons.

Hill would appear, then, to have no trade value due to his age (33), performance and salary. The Diamondbacks and Reds previously discussed a trade involving Hill and Brandon Phillips. That deal didn’t work out, but it fits the basic form a Hill trade would likely take — the D-backs would likely have to take on another expensive player in return, or at least pay much of Hill’s remaining salary. Of course, if their ultimate goal were to sign Kendrick (which is unclear, since Kendrick declined a qualifying offer and Arizona has previously expressed a strong desire to keep their top remaining draft pick), the Diamondbacks might instead seek a high-salaried veteran who played a position outside the middle infield.

Of course, the Diamondbacks could clear roster space and avoid the headache of trying to trade Hill’s contract by dealing Owings, but  Owings plays a decent defensive shortstop and would therefore be more useful in a utility role if the Diamondbacks were to sign Kendrick or another infielder. Hill has not played shortstop since 2006 and spent last season at second base and third, so his tactical value to the Diamondbacks is limited, particularly given that they already have a variety of infield options.

Diamondbacks Trying To Trade Second Baseman

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9:37am: FOX’s Ken Rosenthal hears that the D-backs remain reluctant to part with what be the No. 39 pick in this year’s draft (Twitter link).

8:45am: The Diamondbacks are in “active trade talks” and trying to move a second baseman, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Moving one of their current options at the position would allow them to add Howie Kendrick to the fold, Nightengale adds.

Arizona has a number of options at second base,  including Aaron Hill, Chris Owings and prospect Brandon Drury. Of the bunch, Hill is clearly the most appealing candidate to move, from Arizona’s perspective. The 33-year-old (34 in March) is set to earn $12MM in 2016 — the final season of a three-year, $35MM extension that was signed a few years back. The first season of that contract, while injury-shortened, was a productive one for Hill, but his bat has gone dormant over the past two seasons, yielding just a .238/.290/.359 slash line since Opening Day 2014.

The D-backs would need to eat the bulk of Hill’s remaining salary or take on a similarly undesirable contract in order to move Hill. Earlier this offseason, there was talk of Arizona sending Hill to Cincinnati in exchange for Brandon Phillips, although those talks reportedly fell through because the Diamondbacks felt they were being asked to take on too much of Phillips’ remaining $27MM in salary. The best bet to move Hill, in my view, would be to do so by taking on a similarly priced veteran to use as the club’s fourth outfielder or bullpen piece. Arizona, after all, has plenty of options around the infield and more rotation candidates than rotation spots following the additions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller.

The 32-year-old Kendrick would cost the D-backs their second draft pick of the offseason, as they’ve already forfeited their first-round selection (No. 13 overall) in order to sign Greinke. Surrendering that pick is something that GM Dave Stewart has firmly said the team would not do, though it’s always possible that their thinking or Kendrick’s asking price has changed since Stewart made those comments. Kendrick would be an unequivocal upgrade over the team’s collective .220/.266/.340 output from its second basemen last season. While Arizona could hope for better health and production out of Owings — and Stewart has said the team expects as much — adding some degree of certainty by signing Kendrick certainly has merit, especially when considering the lengths to which Arizona has already gone in an effort to build a contender this offseason.

I’ve mentioned since that time that this would be an odd time for the D-backs to draw a line in the proverbial sand and staunchly refuse to surrender further draft pick value. The team has already committed more than $34MM annually to Greinke over a six-year term and parted with an enormous amount of value to add Miller, so there’s little reason to suddenly hit the brakes from where I stand. Kendrick, of course, comes with some question marks — namely a decline in the eyes of defensive metrics — but he’s nonetheless been a steady, productive bat that would function as yet another upgrade to an improved Diamondbacks roster.

California Notes: A’s, Kendrick, Freese, Padres

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With the NFL’s Oakland Raiders probably unlikely to end up in Los Angeles, CSNBayArea.com’s Joe Stiglich looks at how this could impact the Athletics’ bid for a new ballpark.  It seems like the Raiders will share the O.co Coliseum with the A’s for at least one more year and big picture-wise, not much has changed, as per a press release from A’s co-owner Lew Wolff earlier this week: “The Oakland A’s will continue to explore our options with the City of Oakland and the County of Alameda on a new venue.  This announcement by the NFL regarding the Raiders does not change our immediate plans or our goal of securing a new baseball-only facility.”  The Raiders would like to build a new stadium on the Coliseum’s current site, which would allow the A’s to opt out of their lease and perhaps explore a new ballpark site in downtown Oakland or even a move to a new city.  Pro Football Rumors (MLBTR’s sister site) has all the latest on the Oakland stadium situation in their Raiders news section.  Here’s some more from the California teams…

  • “The Dodgers want the draft pick they would get if (Howie) Kendrick signs elsewhere much more than they want to bring back Kendrick,” Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes.  Since Kendrick rejected the qualifying offer, the Dodgers will receive a compensation pick if he signs elsewhere, but only if Kendrick signs before the June draft.  It’s not really clear who might make a play for Kendrick at this point in the offseason — teams like the Mets, Angels, Nationals and Diamondbacks have been linked to him, though some have since addressed second base needs in trades and others (such as the D’Backs) are balking at giving up another draft pick for a QO free agent.  With Chase Utley, Enrique Hernandez and Micah Johnson all lined up to handle second base, Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi said last month that the team “feel[s] pretty set” at the position.
  • Also from Shaikin, he believes David Freese should’ve signed with the Angels when the two sides were in talks in December.  When negotiations didn’t lead to a deal, the Halos traded for Yunel Escobar to play third base, and Freese hasn’t been since connected to any other teams.  Though Freese was the best of a rather limited class of free agent third basemen, his market has likely been hurt by the fact that several of the teams in need of third base help this offseason (i.e. the Angels and White Sox) filled their holes on the trade market.
  • The Pads bullpen is still wide-open heading into Spring Training, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Sanders lists some of the many internal options available to the Friars, and also notes that the team has been quite good at developing unheralded arms into quality relievers in recent years.

Stewart: D’Backs Won’t Sacrifice Another Draft Pick

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After giving up the 13th overall pick in this summer’s draft to sign Zack Greinke, the Diamondbacks are not interested in parting with another choice, GM Dave Stewart tells MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. That would appear to take Arizona out of the running for any of the remaining free agents who would require draft picks to sign since they rejected qualifying offers earlier at the outset of the offseason.

The D’Backs’ top remaining selection is a Competitive Balance Round A choice that currently rates as the 37th overall choice, though that number will change as QO-bound free agents pick their destinations. “We’re not going to give up the pick,” Stewart said. “It’s just tough after we’ve already given up our first pick. To give up our top two picks, that would be difficult for us to do.”

That stance would appear to put a damper on a report earlier today suggesting that the club was still in talks with infielder Howie Kendrick, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Dodgers. Stewart said there was appeal to adding a veteran infielder, “only just for the security of it,” but noted that the team still feels good about what it well get out of its younger position players. Notably, though he made clear that the team has no inclination to punt a pick, he did not rule out other avenues to acquiring an established player from that mold.

While it is not surprising to hear that the club values the draft pick, it is frankly somewhat surprising to hear Stewart rule out its sacrifice so conclusively. After all, that choice is far less valuable than the one already parted with. And while any other free agent would likely pale in comparison to Greinke in terms of expectations, Arizona has already sought to push up its competitiveness timetable by signing him and giving up a big haul for fellow righty Shelby Miller. There’s always a place to draw a line, of course, but this does seem like a somewhat curious place to make a firm stand.

It’s worth noting, in that regard, that this is the same team that arguably did not maximize its draft and international spending capacity last year. Arizona also traded its first-round choices from 2014 (Touki Toussaint) and 2015 (Dansby Swanson) in recent months. Of course, the organization has gone against the grain in numerous ways, and seen many of its decisions called into question, yet certainly looks to be in a stronger overall position than many would have anticipated this time last year.

Stewart went on to add that the Snakes are still looking for relievers, though he said there are some intriguing young in-house options that could compete for a spot. The Diamondbacks have been connected to a variety of names in trade scenarios, but it appears that the current asking prices are too high. “I can tell you it will be difficult to do it by a trade,” Stewart said. “So we’re going to look through the free-agent market and see what else is left. I think that’s the way it’s going to have to happen if we’re going to do it at all.”

D-Backs Having “Ongoing Discussions” With Howie Kendrick

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Last week, GM Dave Stewart told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro that his Diamondbacks have been in contact with second baseman Howie Kendrick, and today, FOX’s Jon Morosi characterizes discussions between the two sides to be “ongoing.” Nothing is close between the two sides, per Morosi, and it should be noted that Piecoro wrote last week that the D-backs seem reluctant to sign a player that would require draft pick forfeiture, as Kendrick would.

Arizona has a number of infield options already, though presumed starter Chris Owings certainly doesn’t have Kendrick’s track record and is, in fact, coming off a dreadful season that was submarined by shoulder problems. Other internal options for the Diamondbacks at second base include prospect Brandon Drury (though he can also play third base) and struggling veteran Aaron Hill, who has one season remaining on his deal.

Despite the presence of in-house alternatives — at least one of whom, Owings, was recently viewed as a core player in the future — this isn’t the first instance of the D-backs being connected to second base upgrades. Arizona was also said to have discussed a swap of Hill and Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips. While that may appear curious at first glance, such a move would’ve saved the Reds quite a bit in terms of salary and relieved some burden from their payroll in the nearer future; Arizona, in turn, would reallocate Hill’s salary to a more productive veteran player. Ultimately, Piecoro reported last week that the D-backs weren’t comfortable with the salary that the Reds wanted them to assume in a Phillips/Hill swap. (And, of course, there’s the question of the trade veto ability that comes with Phillips’ 10-and-5 rights.)

Digression aside, Kendrick would seem to represent an upgrade over what the D-backs have in house. The 32-year-old has batted .295/.340/.414 over the past three seasons despite playing in considerably more pitcher-friendly environments than Arizona’s Chase Field. Kendrick has been remarkably consistent throughout his Major League tenure, providing offense that rates anywhere from a shade below to considerably above the league average when looking at league- and park-adjust metrics such as OPS+ and wRC+. Kendrick has never batted lower than .279 in a full season and never posted an OBP south of .313. His career .293/.333/.423 batting line is impressive and a reflection of his repeated seasons of quality at-bats.

However, Kendrick isn’t without his red flags, either. Much of his value has come from his quality defense over the years, and he took a significant step backwards in that regard last season. Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved pegged Kendrick at -4.5 and -12 runs, respectively, despite his longstanding history of solid glovework. Kendrick, who has also been highly durable, missed more than a month on the disabled list due to a hamstring strain as well. While that incident could very well be isolated in nature, one can’t blame any team for hesitating to surrender a draft pick in order to sign a 32-year-old second baseman with a good-but-not-great bat and possibly deteriorating defensive skills to a long-term pact.

Morosi also notes that the Angels could potentially fit the description of a contending team with a need at second base, though I’d add that owner Arte Moreno’s aversion to the luxury tax would make that a tough fit. If the Angels were to sign Kendrick, from my view, they may as well sign an impact left field bat to upgrade the lineup at that point, shifting Craig Gentry and/or Daniel Nava into backup roles.

Quick Hits: Shapiro, Kendrick, Chapman, Parra

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Mark Shapiro’s tenure as president of the Blue Jays hasn’t exactly been met with a full embrace by the team’s fans, but he tells John Lott of the National Post that he’s focused on the job at hand rather than worrying about criticism. “I think it’s just inefficient for me to spend a lot of time and energy on that,” says Shapiro. “What I think fans ultimately want is for me to work for this team and make it as good as it can possibly be. If I spend my energy worrying about how to be popular, it’ll be time away from doing the job. That’s not what I’m going to do.” The piece offers a lengthy and interesting look at the veteran executive, and is well worth a full read.

Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:

  • When asked about free agent second baseman Howie Kendrick today, Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi said that the organization “feel[s] pretty set” at the position at this point, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. The Dodgers will utilize Chase Utley and Kike Hernandez there, he said, indicating that there’s little reason for the club to pursue a reunion with Kendrick. Otherwise, per Zaidi, the team could still add another starter and is “still evaluating” its options in the bullpen (via J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group, on Twitter).
  • Zaidi also addressed the Dodgers’ reported deal with the Reds for Aroldis Chapman, via another Shaikin tweet. Los Angeles wasn’t “comfortable making the move” and “moved on” after allegations of a domestic dispute involving Chapman surfaced.
  • Unsurprisingly, Gerardo Parra is expected to wait to sign until the top of the outfield market sheds some names, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. He is still drawing interest from the Royals, Nationals, Giants, and Angels, per the report.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a broader look at the outfield market and wonders what teams could be readying to spring. The Nats top his list, followed by four AL clubs: the White Sox, Orioles, Tigers, and Angels. I agree with Sherman’s assessment that the market will still likely pay these players, as I recently wrote. As an anonymous GM told Sherman: “You will have some owners soon say, ‘Wow, we can have this guy rather than what we have now.’ That is when the aggressiveness comes back in.”

Diamondbacks Still Seeking Offense, Have Spoken To Howie Kendrick

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Though much of the heavy lifting for the Diamondbacks has been accomplished this winter by adding both Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to the fold, GM Dave Stewart tells the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro that he still hopes to add another bat. “We did give away a certain amount of offense with Inciarte,” said Stewart in reference to Ender Inciarte, whom the D-backs sent to the Braves as part of the package to acquire Miller. “I’m not by any means thinking that (Yasmany) Tomas isn’t capable of giving us back what we lost, it’s just he didn’t prove that last year. Just to be sure, I wouldn’t mind adding a little more offense.”

The D-backs didn’t reach out to Daniel Murphy’s representatives before the longtime Met signed a three-year deal with the Nationals, but they’ve been in touch with Howie Kendrick’s representatives, Stewart tells Piecoro. However, the GM didn’t sound optimistic about the chances of getting something done, telling Piecoro: “I just don’t know how far we’re going to get down the road with that.” Piecoro notes that, in particular, Stewart sounded reluctant to surrender a second draft pick to add a free agent after already forefeiting his first pick in next year’s draft to sign Greinke.

Arizona has been linked to second base upgrade on more than one occasion this winter, as the team was also said to have discussed a swap that would’ve sent Aaron Hill to Cincinnati in exchange for Brandon Phillips. That deal would’ve saved the Reds some money on Phillips’ contract while giving the D-backs a boost in the infield, but a source tells Piecoro that Arizona wasn’t comfortable with the amount of Phillips’ 2017 salary that Cincinnati wanted the D-backs to assume. (There’s also the case of whether Phillips would’ve waived the no-trade protection that comes with his full 10-and-5 rights; he reportedly declined to do so when approached about a trade to the Nationals.)

The infield would seem like a logical spot to upgrade the offense after Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings both failed to provide meaningful offense in 2015, but Stewart said that the club has “every reason to believe” that Owings will “definitely” rebound in 2016 after being slowed by a problematic shoulder in 2015 and wouldn’t rule out adding an extra outfielder to the mix instead. As for Ahmed’s offense, I’d imagine the team isn’t as concerned with how much he does or doesn’t produce given his outstanding defense at shortstop (+20 DRS, +16.1 UZR/150). Stewart did leave open the possibility that the team could “go out and get a guy who is a proven offensive player and try to add him to the mix somewhere,” and, certainly, Kendrick would seem to fit that description.

The bullpen also remains a need for Arizona, but Stewart tells Piecoro that the price of acquiring relief help on the trade market is too high at this point, especially after already depleting his farm system by trading a pair of Top 100 prospects — Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair — to Atlanta in the Miller trade. Piecoro writes that some combination of Enrique Burgos, Evan Marshall, Silvino Bracho and Jake Barrett could be leaned upon to complement the likes of Brad Ziegler, Daniel Hudson, Andrew Chafin, Randall Delgado and Josh Collmenter in the bullpen. From my vantage point, that would leave manager Chip Hale without much in the way of quality left-handed relief pitching, so there certainly seems to be reason to believe that the Snakes could add some left-handed bullpen arms, be it on the free-agent market or the trade market. There are a number of low-cost lefty relievers on the market that could provide some value on one-year deals or even minor league pacts.

Nationals Have Spoken To Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy

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The Nationals have had dialogue with the representatives for free-agent second basemen Howie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy, reports MLB.com’s Bill Ladson (Twitter link). The Nationals are known to be in search of second base upgrades, having recently embarked on an unsuccessful pursuit of a Brandon Phillips trade. Washington has also been connected to Kelly Johnson this offseason, although both Kendrick and Murphy would require considerably more significant commitments than Johnson in terms of both years and dollars.

Kendrick, 32, has been a consistently above-average offensive performer over the past five seasons, batting a combined .291/.337/.421 while averaging 14 homers and 13 steals per 162 games played. Kendrick has typically graded out as a plus defender at second base, but both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating were down on his work in 2015. It’s possible that a minor knee issue and a more significant hamstring issue, which cost him a month of the season, contributed to his diminished ratings. However, as a player who turns 33 next July, it’s also possible that Kendrick’s range has deteriorated. If that’s the case, a three- or four-year commitment for the former All-Star is a dangerous proposition, as Kendrick has always drawn a good bit of value from his glovework. Then again, he totaled 2.1 fWAR last season, so he’s still capable of delivering value even with lesser defensive returns. (Baseball-Reference, which uses DRS in its WAR equation, was less optimistic, rating Kendrick at 1.1 WAR.)

This isn’t the first time that Ladson has connected the Nationals to Murphy, though the mention of dialogue between the two sides is a step forward from Ladson’s previous report, in which he indicated that the Nationals were interested in Murphy but didn’t specify whether the two parties had spoken. The 30-year-old Murphy doesn’t have Kendrick’s defensive track record, but he’s been a comparable hitter over the past five seasons and is 18 months younger, so the Nationals would theoretically be buying more of his prime than they would with Kendrick. Murphy also brings something to the Nats that Kendrick cannot offer: a left-handed bat to balance out a highly right-handed lineup. Bryce Harper is the Nationals’ only left-handed-hitting regular in the lineup, which could leave the team susceptible to right-handed opponents. Murphy also showed considerably more power in 2015 than did Kendrick, clubbing 14 homers in the regular season before going on his notorious postseason power binge.

Adding either Kendrick or Murphy to the picture would allow the Nationals to give promising prospect Trea Turner some additional development time in the minor leagues, with Danny Espinosa opening the season at shortstop. Espinosa could then shift to a valuable utility role if and when Turner is ready, potentially spelling Murphy against tough left-handed pitching or serving as a late-game defensive upgrade over either free agent.

Mets Notes: Murphy, Niese, Walker, Cabrera

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The Mets were surprised by Ben Zobrist’s decision to spurn them for the Cubs, but that doesn’t mean they’re likely to re-sign Daniel Murphy as a backup plan, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. Puma notes that the Mets would have interest in Murphy on a one- or two-year contract, but they expect him to get four years elsewhere. The Mets are also “lukewarm” on Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera. Ian Desmond is another possibility, with Wilmer Flores moving to second, but the Mets are wary about his defense. Puma notes that the Mets could just go with 21-year-old Dilson Herrera at second and focus on upgrading elsewhere. That option strikes me as a fairly good one — Herrera is young, but he’s hit brilliantly in the upper minors and certainly looks like he’ll be ready to start soon if he isn’t already. Here’s more on the Mets.

  • The Mets have listened to trade offers regarding lefty Jon Niese, Puma writes. If they were to deal Niese, they could use Rafael Montero as their fifth starter until Zack Wheeler is ready to return after having had Tommy John surgery in March.
  • The Mets are interested in Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, but aren’t optimistic they’ll be able to swing a deal, Puma tweets. Walker could conceivably take over at second base for the Mets in 2016, after which he’ll be a free agent.
  • The Mets met with Ben Zobrist’s representatives at Octagon yesterday, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York tweets, but the two sides actually talked about other Octagon players. That could mean anything, but via MLBTR’s Agency Database, Octagon clients who could be of interest to the Mets include Cabrera, Gerardo Parra, Fernando Rodney and Edward Mujica. Cabrera and Parra have both recently been connected to the Mets.
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