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Harrison Bader

Health Notes: Bader, Calhoun, Canha, Peterson

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The Cardinals activated center fielder Harrison Bader from the 10-day injured list today and optioned fellow outfielder Lars Nootbaar to Triple-A Memphis in his place. Bader missed a little more than a month with a right rib hairline fracture. Before the injury, the 27-year-old had slumped to a .219/.301/.411 mark over his first 83 plate appearances. Bader’s a quality baserunner and defender, through, and his return will allow the Cards to shift Dylan Carlson back into the corner outfield role for which he’s better suited.

In other health news:

  • Kole Calhoun might have suffered a setback in his recovery from left hamstring surgery. The Diamondbacks outfielder’s minor league rehab assignment was recently halted, as he was sent back to Phoenix to undergo an MRI after feeling something in the hamstring while attempting to dodge a hit-by-pitch, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. It’s been something of a lost season for the veteran, who has been limited to 51 plate appearances by injuries. If healthy, Calhoun would be an obvious trade candidate for the last-place Diamondbacks. The 33-year-old hit a strong .292/.333/.479 in 2020 and is in the final guaranteed season of his two-year, $16MM contract with the organization. Calhoun’s deal comes with a $9MM club option (or a $2MM buyout) for 2022.
  • Athletics outfielder Mark Canha is unlikely to return to the club before the All-Star Break, manager Bob Melvin tells reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Canha, who landed on the injured list with left hip tendinitis last week, recently underwent platelet-rich plasma injections in both hips. A somewhat prompt return from the 32-year-old would be a huge boon for the A’s, who trail the Astros by half a game in the AL West. An ever-underrated contributor, Canha is hitting .255/.375/.450 with 11 homers in 325 plate appearances this year.
  • Mets left-hander David Peterson departed his start last night with discomfort in his right side. Manager Luis Rojas told reporters (including Laura Albanese of Newsday) that Peterson continued to experience side tightness today and will be sent for further evaluation. Rojas added the 25-year-old is unlikely to make his next scheduled start. Peterson has struggled to follow up on last year’s promising rookie campaign, pitching to a 5.40 ERA/4.23 SIERA through 66 2/3 innings this season.

Cardinals Place Harrison Bader On IL With Fractured Rib

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The Cardinals announced Tuesday that center fielder Harrison Bader is headed to the 10-day injured list after being diagnosed with a hairline fracture on one of his ribs. Bader exited last night’s game in the third inning after very nearly making an outstanding diving catch on a sinking liner off the bat of Nick Madrigal (video link). However, he ultimately landed with his ribcage on the baseball after it kicked off the heel of his glove. The Cardinals have recalled first baseman/outfielder John Nogowski to take his spot on the active roster.

Bader’s placement on the IL comes at a time when the Cardinals’ outfield depth is already compromised. Tyler O’Neill is on the shelf with a fractured finger at the moment, while Triple-A outfielders Austin Dean and Scott Hurst were both recently placed on the injured list. That slate of injuries likely shifts Dylan Carlson over to center field, with a combination of Justin Williams, Lane Thomas and Nogowski seeing action in the corners.

This is the second IL stint already on the young season for Bader, who opened the season on the shelf due to a forearm injury. He’s gotten out to a .219/.301/.411 start to his season through 83 plate appearances. It’s the same blend of low batting average and decent power we’ve seen from Hader in recent years, but with a greatly reduced strikeout rate standing out as a key difference. Bader entered the 2021 season with a career 29.1 percent punchout rate, but he’s fanned just 13 times in his 83 trips (15.7 percent).

Bader’s contact rate has also improved in 2021, while both his swinging-strike rate and called-strike rate have declined. At least through his first 22 games, he’s looked to have a better recognition of the strike zone and given some inklings that the drop in strikeouts is legitimate. Should that prove to be the case, it’s quite likely his overall batting line will tick up. He’s currently being plagued by a .211 average on balls in play that is nearly 100 points lower than his career mark. He’s also making less hard contact than in recent seasons, so it’s not all good news, but the generally improved approach is certainly still of note.

Cardinals Place Adam Wainwright, Andrew Miller On IL; Activate Harrison Bader

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The Cardinals are placing right-hander Adam Wainwright on the COVID-19 injured list, Katie Woo of The Athletic tweets. The team’s shelving Wainwright as a precautionary move after one of his family members tested positive for the virus, per Woo. In other moves, the Cardinals have activated outfielder Harrison Bader, placed left-hander Andrew Miller on the 10-day IL with a right foot blister, and recalled righty Kodi Whitley, according to Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat.

Wainwright will miss his scheduled start Sunday in Pittsburgh as a result of this IL placement. However, the Cardinals are hopeful the 39-year-old will take the ball against the Mets on Monday.

Wainwright, a career-long Cardinal whom they re-signed to a one-year, $8MM guarantee in free agency, has given the club quality production yet again this season. While Wainwright didn’t come out of the gate particularly well, he has turned it around over his two most recent starts, including a complete game, two-run effort against the Phillies on Monday. Through five starts and 28 2/3 innings, Wainwright has put up a 4.08 ERA (with a far better 3.28 SIERA) and logged above-average strikeout and walk percentages of 26.4 and 5.0, respectively.

Bader is finally set to make his 2021 debut after missing the first several weeks of the season with a forearm injury. He earned the lion’s share of starts for the Cardinals in center last year and batted .226/.336/.443 with four homers 125 plate appearances. Dylan Carlson has handled the position this season, but he’s capable of lining up at both corner outfield spots. Carlson has gotten off to an excellent start, while utilityman Tommy Edman and Tyler O’Neill have put up decent production in the Cards’ outfield, and Justin Williams has struggled mightily.

Miller, once an elite reliever, has seen his career take a negative turn since he signed a two-year, $25MM guarantee with the Cardinals heading into 2019. Miller’s earning $12MM this year on a club option that vested, but his performance hasn’t matched his salary. He yielded two earned runs on two hits in a third of an inning in a win over the Phillies on Thursday, thereby raising his ERA to 8.59 over 7 1/3 innings. Miller has given up 12 hits, including two homers, and walked four in the early going.

NL Injury Notes: Yelich, Cardinals, Inciarte, Lester

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Although Brewers left fielder Christian Yelich hasn’t appeared in a game since Sunday, the team doesn’t seem overly concerned about his ailing back. Manager Craig Counsell said Yelich began baseball activities Thursday and is “making progress,” per Tom Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Counsell likened Yelich’s current back ailment to the ones that he dealt with in previous seasons, noting that the former MVP didn’t require an IL stint in those cases and was able to return within a few days.

  • Cardinals center fielder Harrison Bader is 10 to 14 days from being a “full go,” manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Katie Woo of The Athletic) on Friday. The Cardinals have been without Bader since he suffered a forearm injury in late March, mostly leaving center to Dylan Carlson thus far. Meanwhile, right-hander Miles Mikolas threw a second “aggressive” bullpen and is making favorable progress, according to Shildt. Mikolas didn’t pitch at all last season as he recovered from surgery on his flexor tendon, and he suffered a shoulder injury in the first half of March that has stopped him from taking the mound this year. A healthy Mikolas would be a welcome addition for the Cardinals, whose rotation has begun 2021 in dreadful fashion. Their starters rank last in the majors with a 6.33 ERA.
  • Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte appears ticketed for a trip to the 10-day IL after suffering a strained hamstring Friday, David O’Brien of The Athletic writes. Inciarte would be the second Braves center fielder to hit the IL this week, joining starter Cristian Pache. Behind Inciarte, Guillermo Heredia has the most center field experience of anyone on Atlanta’s roster. Superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. played 100 games there in 2019 and spent the majority of last season there, but the Braves are reluctant to move him out of right field, per O’Brien, who names Phil Ervin and Abraham Almonte as call-up possibilities. Ervin and Almonte aren’t on the Braves’ 40-man roster, which does have an open spot at the moment.
  • Nationals left-hander Jon Lester got through a three-inning, 49-pitch sim game on Friday without any issues, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com relays. Manager Dave Martinez believes Lester would be able to toss up to four innings right now, but the Nationals want to stretch him out further before he joins their rotation. There still isn’t a timetable for his 2021 debut, Martinez added. Multiple health issues have hampered Lester since the Nationals signed him to a one-year, $5MM guarantee in free agency. He underwent surgery to remove his thyroid gland at the beginning of March and has been in COVID-19 protocols for most of this month.

Harrison Bader Out Four To Six Weeks With Forearm Injury

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2:40pm: President of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells reporters that Bader will be down for four to six weeks (Twitter link via ESPN’s Marly Rivera).

9:30am: Cardinals center fielder Harrison Bader will begin the season on the injured list due to a “flare up” of a forearm injury that required a platelet-rich plasma injection, manager Mike Shildt announced to reporters Wednesday (Twitter link via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News). He’ll be sidelined for a “solid four weeks at minimum,” according to Shildt.

The injury to Bader lends some clarity to the Cardinals’ outfield mix. Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson are locks at this point thanks to huge spring showings. Carlson can play center field early if needed or slide over to right field, where he’d been initially projected with a healthy Bader in play.

Justin Williams, Lane Thomas and Austin Dean are likely vying for the remaining starting job, and it’s possible that all three could make the roster (two as reserves). Dean does have some experience at first base, giving him a bit more utility in a bench role. Williams, meanwhile, is still awaiting ruling on whether he has a minor league option remaining or not. If he does not, then he’d be all but assured an Opening Day roster spot, as he wouldn’t be able to be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers.

Bader has become a polarizing figure among Cardinals fans due to his low batting average, but he’s among the game’s best defensive center fielders and has some power at the dish. Over the past three seasons, he’s posted a combined .234/.326/.401 batting line with 28 homers, 41 doubles and seven triples through 958 plate appearances — good for a 97 wRC+ (about three percent worse than league-average offense when weighted for home park and league). Some of Bader’s OBP is propped up by frequently batting eighth in front of the pitcher, however, and his 29.4 percent strikeout rate in that stretch is problematic for obvious reasons. Still, a player with his defensive aptitude and a solid .167 ISO (slugging minus batting average) needn’t be an offensive force to provide value.

That said, the Cards will now get a longer look at several outfield candidates who have quite a bit of offensive upside themselves, so it’ll be interesting to see if any of them run with the opportunity and challenge the 26-year-old Bader for playing time upon his eventual return. That four-week timeline from Shildt would take Bader out through at least April 21, though the absence could very well be longer in the likely event that he needs a tune-up at the team’s alternate site/in Triple-A once his forearm discomfort has cleared up.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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NL Central Notes: Pirates, Reynolds, Newman, Cardinals, Goldschmidt, Flaherty

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The Pirates are more likely than not to land outside the playoff picture in 2020, but they’ve not given up the notion of wreaking some havoc on the NL Central this year. To do so, however, Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman will need to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump, writes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. True enough, Reynolds and Newman came out the gate strong in 2019, posting 3.2 fWAR and 2.4 fWAR, respectively. And yet, teaming their rookie duo with Josh Bell’s breakout bat still only amounted to the 20th-ranked offense by runs scored (758 runs), 19th by wRC+ (92). Beyond these three, the other two Pirates rounding out their top-5 by wRC+ in 2019 now play for different teams (Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson), and the sixth is a pitcher (Steven Brault). Immediately upon the close of 2019, the Pirates had planned to give Brault a go as a two-way player, but with new leadership up and down the organization, it’s unclear what his role will be. Regardless, Jarrod Dyson is the biggest addition made the to position player group this winter. Reynolds and Newman are core pieces of this lineup, and the good news is this: if they do slump in their sophomore seasons, they should have enough leash to find their way back. Let’s jump from the bottom of the NL Central to the top and check in with the reigning divisional champs…

  • As Spring Training games kick off (weather permitting), hitters around the league are putting their offseason swing adjustments to the test. Paul Goldschmidt, Harrison Bader, and Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals will all be deploying tweaked swings to some degree as they seek the kind of offensive consistency that eluded the trio last year, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goldy was the most successful of the three, but his fortunes at the plate sunk and fell seemingly on a monthly basis, and he never quite settled into the type of season to which he is accustomed. A .260 BA was his lowest mark since 2012 by almost thirty points, and while his power remained decidedly above average, it did drop from the astronomical heights of the couple seasons prior. Still, even in a down year, Goldy produced 16% more offense than average. Any substantive regression to his career norms should be enough to raise Goldy’s stock back to the level of franchise cornerstone where the Cardinals expected him to be when they acquired him for three players and a pick last winter.
  • Unsurprisingly, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt wasted no time in naming Jack Flaherty their opening day starter, tweets Goold. Flaherty drove the Cardinals second half push to 91 wins and their first divisional crown since 2015. Who follows Flaherty in the rotation is a more compelling question for those in Cardinals camp this spring. There are no shortage of options, from rotation holdovers like Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas, to former ace Carlos Martinez, to newcomer Kwang-Hyun Kim. Adam Wainwright will be somewhere in the rotation after a rejuvenating 14-10 season in which he posted a 4.19 ERA/4.36 FIP across 31 starts. The bridge from Flaherty to Wainwright (to Chris Carpenter to Matt Morris) is a tangible reminder of the Cardinals’ institutional success. 2007, Wainright’s first season as a starter, remains the only losing season the Cards have suffered this century (they went 78-84 and finished in third place).

Latest On Cardinals Outfield Situation

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Harrison Bader has claimed the Cardinals centerfield job, per Derrick Goold, Benjamin Hochman, Rick Hummel and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. If manager Mike Shildt decides to go with the dibs system this spring, Bader will be in excellent shape. Otherwise, he’s going to have to hit to stay the everyday man in center.

President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak specifically mentioned a desire to see Bader become an “all-fields hitter,” while acknowledging that his offensive floor to remain a starter is lower than most in the game because of his elite defensive abilities. The .650 OPS he finished with in 2019 isn’t going to cut it – thought it’s worth noting that even with the .205/.314/.366 batting line, Bader put together a 2.0 bWAR season in 128 games. 

The final note on Bader is that while the Cardinals have a handful of outfield options, none are suited specifically for center quite like him. That said, prospect Dylan Carlson, whom the Cardinals view as part of the 2020 picture, has spent a decent 43 percent of his minor league starts in center. The 21-year-old Carlson tore through the upper levels of the minors last year, hitting .292/.372/.542 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Also mentioned, Lane Thomas – acquired in 2017 from the Blue Jays for international spending money – as a possibility for at-bats in center should Bader continue to struggle with the outside breaking ball.

Thomas, 24, played a total of 68 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2019, tearing it up in 44 plate appearances with a .316/.409/.684 small sample burst. In Fangraphs’ January prospect update, Thomas landed as the #8 ranked prospect in the Cardinals system, while Carlson came in at #2, behind only Nolan Gorman. 

Along with Bader, Thomas, and Carlson, Tommy Edman looks like a fan favorite in the making, and he figures to get most of his playing time in the outfield while the Cardinals wait to see if Matt Carpenter bounces back. Even if Carpenter moves full time to the bench at some point, veteran Dexter Fowler enjoyed a bounce back season (of sorts) in 2019, tellingly appearing in 150 games as a clearly trusted veteran.

Read between the lines and it’s hard see how a reunion with Marcell Ozuna makes sense. That said, the Cardinals seem to be at least considering it. Speculatively speaking, the ongoing engagement could signal a willingness on Ozuna’s part to settle for a short-term pact.

Despite the outfielder’s interest in returning, the article notes that Mozeliak declined to answer when asked whether he has remained in touch with the 29-year-old. The Cardinals have enough coverage in the outfield to let Ozuna walk and feel okay about their depth. Besides the five potential outfielders mentioned above (Bader, Thomas, Carlson, Edman, Fowler), the Cardinals can also call on Rangel Ravelo, Tyler O’Neill, Justin Williams, or the recently acquired Austin Dean for outfield at-bats. If there’s a potential weakness in the Cardinals outfield, it’s depth in centerfield, where Ozuna does not help anyhow. Even there, depth is hardly a weakness. Bader and Carlson have immense potential while Fowler provides a veteran floor (though he’s more of a week-by-week stopgap at this point of his career).

Furthermore, payroll estimators peg the Cardinals opening day payroll somewhere between $162MM and $167MM. The low end of that spectrum would match last year’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise all-time high. That doesn’t paint a welcoming environment for a new Ozuna contract. Nor does it, before you ask, make the acquisition of Nolan Arenado’s $26MM contract seem at that likely. That said, if there’s any takeaway from the 500-or-so words above, it’s that Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch have an eye for contrivance in roster building.

Cardinals Acquire Matt Liberatore

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6:16PM: Harrison Bader and Lane Thomas aren’t expected to be part of the trade, Passan reports.  Fowler also isn’t thought to be part of this deal, though he could eventually be on the move elsewhere since the Cardinals have been discussing him in other trade negotiations.

5:37PM: The trade is shaping up as a multi-player blockbuster, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) reports that the Cardinals and Rays are each sending three “pieces” to the other in the deal.  “At least two of those pieces are draft picks,” Rosenthal notes, indicating that Competitive Balance Round selections (the only type of draft picks that can be traded) are in play.  The Cards are slated to pick in Competitive Balance Round A following the first round of the draft, whereas the Rays draw after the second round in Competitive Balance Round B, so there is roughly a 30-slot gap between the two picks.

4:57PM: The Cardinals have discussed Tyler O’Neill with the Rays and other teams this offseason, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, though there isn’t yet any indication that O’Neill could be involved in the Liberatore trade.

3:53PM: The Cardinals have acquired left-hander Matthew Liberatore from the Rays, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  The return headed back to Tampa Bay is expected to include at least one player from the Cards’ Major League roster, and hints at a very notable trade given Liberatore’s status as one of the top prospects in the Rays’ system.

Picked 16th overall in the 2018, Liberatore has gotten off to a solid start in his young career, with a 2.59 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 2.57 K/BB rate over his first 111 professional innings.  That includes a 3.10 ERA over 78 1/3 IP at the A-ball level in 2019, though Liberatore missed a bit of time with a minor back injury.

It was a performance that did nothing to dim Liberatore’s stock in the eyes of evaluators, as the most recent prospect rankings from Baseball America (31st), Baseball Prospectus (37th), MLB.com (41st), and Fangraphs (63rd) all place Liberatore solidly among the sport’s top minor leaguers.  MLB Pipeline ranks Liberatore fourth on its list of the best left-handed pitching prospects, with a scouting report touting his potential for as many as three 60-grade pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale.  In fact, Liberatore’s fastball, changeup, and slider all earned a 55 grade from Pipeline, while his “swing-and-miss hammer” of a curveball gets a 60 grade.

Liberatore is only 20 years old, and at 6’5″ and 200 pounds, might still need to add some bulk to withstand the workload of a Major League starting pitcher.  He’ll now immediately become the most promising young arm in the St. Louis farm system, now that the likes of Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson have graduated to the big leagues, and Alex Reyes’ injury concerns continues to cloud his future.  Many of the Cardinals’ current top youngsters are position players, which could be addressed by whatever player or players are sent back to Tampa Bay.

As Passan notes, the Rays have been looking for outfield help, so it’s logical to guess that the outfielder-heavy Cards could be dealing from their logjam on the grass.  It’s probably safe to assume that the Rays aren’t taking on Dexter Fowler’s big contract (unless this is part of a much larger trade), but St. Louis has a wealth of younger outfielders that could be fits for Tampa Bay — Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Randy Arozarena, Jose Martinez, or utilityman Tommy Edman could all be part of this trade.  One can’t even rule out top prospect Dylan Carlson, as while the Cardinals have been resistant to offers, it would take a promising young arm like Liberatore to even get the Cards’ attention on a Carlson deal.  Still, St. Louis is probably less likely to deal a player who could help their team as early as 2020 in order to land a pitcher who is still at least a couple of years away.

Central Notes: Abreu, Gordon, Bader, Brusdar

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Although the White Sox and first baseman Jose Abreu have made their affinity for one another known on many occasions, the club reportedly won’t offer the pending free agent a contract extension this season. Nevertheless, Abreu once again made it clear Monday his mission is to re-sign with the White Sox, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times relays. Asked if he’s confident a new deal will come together, Abreu declared: “Of course. Like I said before, if the team doesn’t sign me, I’m going to sign myself here.” Chicago’s on its way to its 11th straight season without a playoff berth, and the club has never even finished .500 since Abreu joined the fray entering 2014. But the 32-year-old explained to Van Schouwen the team’s capable of contending as early as 2020, expressing confidence that “the front office is going to make the move that will be the right move for us to move forward and to get to that final phase of this process.”

  • As with Chicago and Abreu, there’s a great deal of fondness between the Royals and outfielder Alex Gordon. General manager Dayton Moore stated back in June he “couldn’t imagine” Gordon playing anywhere else. The soon-to-be 36-year-old took a similar tone over the weekend, telling Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports it’s KC or bust in 2020. “I’m not going to play anywhere else,” Gordon said. “If I play, it’s going to be for the Royals.” If Gordon does continue next season, he and the Royals will have to work out a new arrangement, as the team’s sure to decline its half of a $23MM mutual option in favor of a $4MM buyout.
  • The Cardinals will recall center fielder Harrison Bader from Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday and option outfielder Randy Arozarena, per Stu Durando and Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Manager Mike Shildt noted the Cardinals are “super proud” of Bader for the way he handled himself in the wake of his July 29 demotion. Bader had been a staple in St. Louis’ lineup for most of the year until the club sent him down, but he’s coming back as a result of a dominant offensive showing in the minors. Meanwhile, fellow Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill could start a rehab assignment with Memphis later in the week, according to Durando and Hummel. O’Neill has been on the IL since Aug. 3 with a left wrist strain.
  • High-end Twins pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol leveled up over the weekend, moving from Double-A Pensacola to Triple-A Rochester. The 20-year-old right-hander is now on the doorstep of the majors, but that doesn’t mean he’ll get there this season, GM Thad Levine told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. On the subject of a possible late-2019 major league call-up for Graterol, Levine said: “That idea may have been a little overstated. We’re not going to force anything. We would only promote someone if we thought he could genuinely contribute, [and that decision] has certainly not been made.” Graterol’s capable of pumping triple-digit heat, which ideally will help make him a prominent piece of the Twins’ bullpen into the fall.
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