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Hansel Robles

The Angels Found A Dominant Reliever On Waivers

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More than half the league passed on Hansel Robles after the Mets designated the right-hander for assignment and ran him through waivers back in 2018. Robles was sitting on an ERA north of 5.00 at the time, and he’d posted a 4.92 ERA in a full season a year prior in 2017. Few doubted Robles’ raw ability. He’d had a pair of solid years in 2015-16 and despite his 2017-18 struggles in Queens, he’d averaged close to 96 mph on his heater and posted 9.9 K/9 in his Mets career. However, Robles also averaged four walks and 1.4 homers per nine innings pitched with the Mets, and there were questions about his ability to ever take his game to the next level.

Hansel Robles | obert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Right now, those questions look like a distant memory.

Since being claimed by the Angels, Robles has enjoyed the best run of his career. Over the life of 109 innings, he’s worked to a 2.64 ERA and 2.99 FIP with averages of 9.2 strikeouts, 2.6 walks and just 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. In 2019, Robles led the Angels with 23 saves.

This past season, Robles not only saw his average fastball velocity spike to 97 mph — he also changed the manner in which he used it to attack hitters. Robles’ approach in his last full season with the Mets (2017) was to bust right-handed hitters in off the plate and to work them low and away. In 2019, he stopped focusing on working righties inside and instead ramped up his usage of four-seamers off the plate away and up in the zone/above the zone. He’s far from the only pitcher to begin to shift his focus to high four-seamers, but most pitchers can’t match Robles’ combination of fastball spin rate (85th percentile) and fastball velocity (96th percentile).

The most notable difference in the 2019 version of Robles, however, was his sudden reliance on a changeup he’d never tossed at even a four percent clip before. Robles had thrown a total of 115 changeups in his career prior to 2019. He threw 262 changeups last year alone. The pitch proved to be the most effective offering in his newly expanded arsenal and greatly improved his ability to handle left-handed hitters. Opponents posted a ridiculous-looking .169/.179/.215 batting line in plate appearances that ended with the pitch, which carried a hefty 19.5 percent swinging-strike rate.

Fueled by a his newfound comfort with the changeup, Robles held hitters to a .221/.263/.332 batting line on the whole last season. That translates to a .254 weighted on-base average (wOBA) that tied him for the 38th-best mark among the 631 pitchers who faced at least 50 hitters in 2019. That excellence wasn’t just a case of BABIP smoke and mirrors, either; Robles’ .280 average on balls in play last season fell right in line with his career .278 mark. Based on those K/BB numbers and the quality of contact he allowed (or rather, the lack thereof), Statcast pegged him for an expected wOBA of .269 that closely resembles his actual mark. He ranked in the 76th percentile or better in terms of expected batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA as well as hard-hit rate allowed.

This isn’t the first time that Robles has had success in the Majors. In 2015-16, he tossed 131 2/3 innings with a 3.55 ERA, seemingly beginning to solidify himself as a reliable bullpen cog. But Robles has never looked this good before, either. The onus will again fall on him now to maintain the promise he’s shown — something he wasn’t able to do after that encouraging two-year run. Perhaps the league will adjust to his new-look changeup after a full year’s worth of data. Injuries are always a risk, too, and relief pitching in general is a highly volatile part of the game.

Right now, however, the Angels look to have secured themselves a flat-out steal when they scooped Robles up 22 months ago. He’s controlled through the 2021 season, giving him time to either contribute to a revamped Angels roster featuring Anthony Rendon, a healthy Shohei Ohtani and rotation newcomers Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran … or time to further build his stock as a trade chip, extension candidate or 2021-22 free agent.

Regardless of how the remainder of Robles’ Angels tenure plays out, you can bet that each of the Orioles, Royals, White Sox, Marlins, Reds, Rangers, Padres, Blue Jays, Twins, Rays, Tigers, Pirates, Giants, Rockies, Athletics, Cardinals and Dodgers would each like a mulligan on passing Robles over when he hit waivers in 2018.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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AL West Notes: Robles, Mathis, Astros

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Right-hander Hansel Robles has been a bright spot in what has become another disappointing season for the Angels, writes Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times. Robles boasts a 1.25 ERA over his past 40 games — tops among AL pitchers with at least 40 innings in that time — and recently set down 27 consecutive hitters over one particularly dominant stretch. Considering that the Angels acquired him via waivers last year, Robles’ emergence as a dominant arm in the ’pen is a particularly positive development. The Mets designated Robles for assignment last June, with manager Mickey Callaway explaining at the time that the “adjustments” Robles needed to make to find consistency were “looking more and more difficult.” With the Halos, however, Robles has refocused on a split-changeup that the Mets pushed him away from. “The movement he gets on it, the shape that he gets on it, his ability to locate it pretty consistently,” pitching coach Doug White said to Torres, “guys have to be ready for 98 and then the changeup comes and it’s really hard to hit.”

Robles leads the Angels with 21 saves and has pitched to a 2.36 ERA with 9.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.66 HR/9 and a 38 percent ground-ball rate. He’ll get a nice raise on this year’s $1.4MM salary in arbitration over the winter and can is under team control through the 2021 season.

More from the division…

  • Jeff Mathis has had a nightmarish season at the plate, hitting just .158/.209/.224, but the Rangers don’t appear to have any plans to move on from the veteran backstop, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Texas signed Mathis to a two-year deal due to his superlative defensive reputation, and manager Chris Woodward lauded the 36-year-old’s work behind the plate and his clubhouse presence. “I would definitely speak up if they were thinking about not bringing him back,” said Woodward. “I would speak against that because what he means to the clubhouse is a lot.” While there’s no quantifiable measure of Mathis’ impact on the clubhouse, the defensive metrics that have long suggested he’s an elite backstop have trended in the other direction. Mathis received negative pitch-framing grades for the first time in 2019, and his -1 Defensive Runs Saved is his only negative mark since 2006. His 17 percent caught-stealing rate is well below the 27 percent league average. At the plate, no player with 200-plus plate appearances has posted a wRC+ lower than Mathis (2). The Rangers owe him $3MM next season, but one could hardly fault them for contemplating a change even if Woodward were to protest.
  • The Astros are sending slugger Colton Shaver to the Arizona Fall League to work as a catcher, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Houston’s 39th-round pick in 2017, Shaver ascended to Double-A this season despite that lackluster draft status, and his power and walk rate were hard to overlook. While Shaver’s average suffered because of a 32 percent strikeout rate, he still hit .223/.357/.500 with 15 home runs in an extremely pitcher-friendly Texas League. Shaver has played primarily first base in the pros and was a frequent designated hitter in college at BYU, but he played catcher up until college and approached the Astros about working at the position this past spring. He caught 29 games in the minors this season and will attempt to continue the transition in the AFL. Houston’s system is thin on catching prospects, so a successful transition would be a notable boost for both Shaver and the Astros organization.

Angels Remove Cody Allen From Closer’s Role

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The Angels are removing right-hander Cody Allen from the closer’s role for the time being, manager Brad Ausmus revealed prior to Wednesday’s tilt with the Yankees (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger). There won’t be a set closer in his place, it seems, as each of Ty Buttrey, Hansel Robles and Luis Garcia could receive looks depending on availability and matchup, Bollinger notes.

Signed to a one-year deal worth $8.25MM this offseason, Allen hoped to bounce back in his new environs following the worst full season of his MLB career in 2018. Allen gave the Indians five straight seasons of sub-3.00 ERA ball with at least 11.3 K/9 from 2013-17 before stumbling in his final season of arbitration; last year, the righty posted a 4.70 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 and a career-high 1.5 HR/9.

The start of the 2019 season hasn’t gone any better. Allen is a nominal 4-for-4 in save opportunities, but he’s yielded five earned runs on six hits and seven walks with nine strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings. The home-run troubles that plagued him last year are all the more pronounced in 2019, as he’s already served up a trio of dingers on the young season. Perhaps more concerning is the fact that Allen’s 92.2 mph average fastball is a full two miles per hour lower than it was in 2017 and three miles slower than it was back in 2014. As one might expect with that type of velocity dip, Allen’s swinging-strike rate has plummeted from 14.9 percent in 2017 to 10.4 percent in 2019.

It remains to be seen whether the change in role can help to get Allen back on track. At 30 years old, it’s not out of the question that he can rediscover some of his lost velocity. It’s also certainly possible that a pitcher with his track record and wipeout curveball can learn to be effective even with reduced life on his heater, though doing so may come with an adjustment period.

Fantasy players asking who’s in line for the bulk of saves won’t have a true answer until we see how Ausmus deploys the other late-inning relievers in his bullpen. But to this point in the season, both Buttrey and Robles have been terrific. Each has struck out at least one third of the hitters he’s faced while walking fewer than eight percent of opponents. Buttrey has paired his outstanding K-BB% with a hefty 56.5 percent ground-ball rate (dwarfing Robles’ 25.0 percent), underscoring the difficulty that opponents have when it comes to elevating his pitches.

Since being acquired from the Red Sox in exchange for Ian Kinsler, Buttrey has a 2.10 ERA and a 33-to-8 K/BB ratio and zero home runs allowed in 25 1/3 innings for the Angels. Robles, since being claimed off waivers from the Mets, has a 3.02 ERA and a 52-to-18 K/BB ratio in 47 2/3 frames. Between the two, Buttrey has induced more swinging strikes and grounders and seems like the more prototypical closer, though it’s possible that Ausmus will err on the side of veteran experience and give the first looks to Robles.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
  • The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
  • Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
  • Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
  • The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
  • The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
  • Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
  • New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
  • The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
  • Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).

Earlier Updates

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Angels Claim Hansel Robles

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The Angels announced today that they’ve claimed righty reliever Hansel Robles off waivers from the Mets. Robles was designated for assignment just yesterday. Rene Rivera was transferred to the 60-day DL in order to make room on the expanded roster.

As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted at that time, Robles put up some solid numbers for the Mets during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. He pitched 131 2/3 innings during that span, allowing 52 earned runs while racking up 146 strikeouts. Robles also pitched three scoreless postseason innings in 2015 without allowing a walk or a hit.

That seems to be in the distant past now, as Robles has an ERA close to 5.00 since the start of the 2017 season. He’s also seen a spike in his walk rate to 4.59 BB/9 during that time frame. Still, the Angels will hope he can add depth to a bullpen that seems to lack stability, as they’ve got a number of relievers with upside but none who have proven themselves reliable across an extended stretch. For the time being, Robles will report to Triple-A Salt Lake.

Mets Designate Hansel Robles For Assignment

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The Mets have designated righty Hansel Robles for assignment, per a club announcement. With a need for roster spots to accommodate a pair of promotions, the team also moved AJ Ramos to the 60-day DL and optioned fellow right-handed relievers Paul Sewald and Chris Flexen.

Robles, 27, was a quality pen piece for the Mets in 2015 and 2016. But he has run into troubles more recently, spending time in the minors in each of the past two campaigns while struggling to deliver consistent results at the MLB level.

In total, Roblems has compiled a 4.95 ERA with 9.8 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in hs past 76 1/3 innings. Beyond the walk problems, Robles has coughed up seven long balls in his 19 2/3 MLB frames this year.

Despite the issues, it isn’t hard to imagine another team deciding to take a shot on Robles. He still brings mid-nineties heat, can be optioned, and has a history of some success in the majors. On the other hand, he has posted a rather pedestrian 10.0% swinging-strike rate this year (which is actually an improvement on his 2017 numbers), to go with the other issues.

Mets GM Sandy Alderson did not exactly attempt to put a positive spin on Robles as his seven-day period of DFA limbo begins. “You kept seeing the same thing,” Alderson told reporters including Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). “The adjustments he needed to get consistent outs probably wasn’t going to happen.”

East Notes: Hess, Stroman, Mets, Pedroia, Mujica

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After placing Chris Tillman on the DL earlier today, the Orioles have announced that they’ll promote David Hess to take the open spot in the rotation, as Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun was among those to report on Twitter. The 24-year-old righty entered the year as a notable, if not particularly heralded prospect. He has impressed thus far in 2018 after being added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft last fall. Through 29 2/3 innings over six starts, Hess owns a 2.12 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. It remains to be seen how long a run he’ll get in the majors, but it seems there’ll be opportunity available if he throws well.

Here are some more notes from the eastern divisions, focusing on some health situations of note:

  • Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman discussed his DL placement with the media today, with MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm providing the story. Stroman acknowledged that the placement was made with consideration not just of his physical wellness, but his mental state. “Just a collective decision between me and the staff, to take a step back, do what I need to do for my shoulder, get my emotions and everything in sync, to get back to myself,” Stroman said. It seems he’ll mostly be looking to get a relatively brief respite before rejoining the staff.
  • The Mets provided a variety of health updates today to reporters, including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. Infielder T.J. Rivera is not yet ready for rehab assignments but could make it back from Tommy John surgery by July. Backstop Kevin Plawecki is closer, as he’s preparing to begin rehabbing in earnest in hopes of returning from a fractured hand by the end of the month. As Tim Britton of The Athletic tweets, though, reliever Anthony Swarzak is still a little ways off. His injured oblique is still not healed enough to allow him to take the mound. Meanwhile, the club has placed reliever Hansel Robles on the 10-day DL with a sprained knee, with lefty Buddy Baumann taking his place on the active roster.
  • Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia is hoping to begin a rehab assignment early next week, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. He has been building back to full strength following offseason knee surgery. While the Sox have managed just fine without the veteran star, a return from Pedroia will certainly be most welcome, as fill-in Eduardo Nunez has struggled thus far at the plate.
  • Rays righty Jose Mujica has been cleared of any significant arm issues, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. The minor-league hurler will need about a month of rest after being diagnosed with a forearm strain. So long as he can get back to health, though, he could represent a much-needed option later in the year.

Mets Place Anthony Swarzak On 10-Day DL

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3:27pm: Swarzak tells reporters that he’s been diagnosed with a “mild to moderate” oblique strain (Twitter link, with video, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). Doctors have informed him that a best-case scenario would be a return in “a few weeks.”

8:21am: The Mets have placed righty Anthony Swarzak on the 10-day DL, according to the MLB.com transactions page (h/t James Wagner of the New York Times, on Twitter). The official cause of the placement is a “sore left oblique.”

[Related: Updated New York Mets depth chart]

While oblique injuries can be tricky, it’s notable that this one has — to this point — only been identified as soreness, rather than a strain. The Mets will no doubt exercise care in bringing Swarzak along, but perhaps his recent MRI gave cause for optimism despite the DL placement. Of course, that’s all guesswork at this point; presumably the club will provide further information later today.

Swarzak joined the Mets on a two-year, $14MM contract over the winter, following a breakout 2017 season in which he tossed 77 1/3 innings of 2.33 ERA ball. The plan was to plug him into a high-leverage role along with fellow righties Jeurys Familia and A.J. Ramos.

For now, though, Swarzak will rest up while the Mets turn to a familiar face in Hansel Robles, who was recalled to take the open roster spot. Robles was a key part of the relief corps over the past three seasons, but stumbled in 2017. He had opened the current season on optional assignment.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salaries.

Onto today’s landslide of deals…

National League West

  • The Rockies have agreed to a $2MM salary with righty Chad Bettis, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). That’s a fair sight more than his $1.5MM projection. Bettis surely would have had an opportunity to set a bigger platform for himself, but had to battle through testicular cancer before returning to the hill in 2017. Meanwhile, second baseman DJ LeMahieu has settled for a $8.5MM payday in his final year of arbitration, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. That’s just a hair short of the $8.8MM he was pegged for in MLBTR’s projections.
  • Giants second baseman Joe Panik is slated to earn $3.45MM in his first season of arb eligibility, Devan Fink of SB Nation was first to tweet. That’s just a hair shy of the $3.5MM that MLBTR projected. Lefty Will Smith has settled at $2.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The club has also announced deals with its remaining arb-eligible players, right-handed relievers Sam Dyson ($4.6MM projection), Hunter Strickland ($1.7MM projection), and Cory Gearrin ($1.6MM projection). (H/t John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter). Strickland earns $1.55MM, Nightengale tweets.
  • The Padres and Freddy Galvis agreed to a $6.825MM deal for his lone season of team control in San Diego, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. Galvis, who spent the first several seasons of his career in Philadelphia before being traded this winter, had been projected to make $7.4MM. Infielder Cory Spangenberg settled at $1.7MM, Heyman tweets, falling below a $2.0MM projection. San Diego has also reached agreements with righty Kirby Yates and outfielder Matt Szczur, the team announced. Yates will earn $1,062,500, Heyman tweets, which is just shy of his $1.1MM projection. Szczur, meanwhile, will get $950K, a healthy boost over his $800K projection, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $7.75MM deal with center fielder A.J. Pollock, Murray tweets. Pollock was projected to earn $8.4MM in his final year of eligibility before free agency. Murray also notes that Brad Boxberger is set to earn $1.85MM next year (Twitter link). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that lefty Andrew Chafin ($1.2MM projection) and the D-backs have a $1.195MM deal in place. Third baseman Jake Lamb, meanwhile, agreed to a $4.275MM deal with the Diamondbacks, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). Lamb, eligible for arbitration for the first time, was projected to earn $4.7MM. He’s controllable through 2020. And ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM projection) landed a $1.3MM deal. Righty Taijuan Walker has settled for $4.825MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which is within range but shy of the $5.0MM he projected for. Lefty Robbie Ray has settled at $3.95MM, per Nightengale (Twitter link), which falls short of his $4.2MM projection. Infielder Nick Ahmed will $1.275MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which tops the projected figure of $1.1MM. Arizona has also announced that Chris Owings and David Peralta have agreed to terms.
  • The Dodgers are in agreement on a $6MM deal with lefty Alex Wood, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He had projected at $6.4MM. Meanwhile, righty Josh Fields agreed to a $2.2MM deal, tweets Murray. Heyman tweets that Enrique Hernandez will earn $1.6MM. Fields’ projection of $2.2MM was on the money, whereas Hernandez topped his mark by $300K. Fields is controlled through 2019, while Hernandez is controllable through 2020. Southpaw Tony Cingrani gets $2.3MM, Murray tweets, which is just a shade over his $2.2MM projection. Outfielder Joc Pederson has also settled, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter), with Beth Harris of the Associated Press reporting a $2.6MM salary that rather handily tops the $2.0MM that MLBTR projected.

National League Central

  • All three remaining Cardinals arb-eligibles have agreed to deals, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. Marcell Ozuna will earn $9MM after drawin a much larger $10.9MM projection, Heyman tweets. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained that Ozuna likely wouldn’t quite reach the amount the algorithm suggested, though the actual salary still comes in a bit shy of expectations. Lefty Tyler Lyons ($1.3MM projection) receives $1.2MM, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). The Cards have also reached agreement with Michael Wacha for $5.3MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter); he was projected to earn $5.9MM.
  • The Reds agreed to a $860K salary with Anthony DeSclafani, tweets Murray. DeSclafani missed the 2017 season due to arm troubles and had been projected to earn $1.1MM. He’ll remain under Reds control through 2020. Billy Hamilton and the Reds have settled on a one-year deal worth $4.6MM, tweets Murray. A popular trade candidate this offseason, Hamilton was projected to earn $5MM and comes with another two seasons of team control. Murray also conveys that Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $1.3125MM deal, which lines up fairly well with his $1.4MM projection.
  • The Cubs have struck a deal with lefty Justin Wilson, agreeing to a one-year, $4.25MM pact, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Wilson, who had been projected at $4.3MM, will be a free agent next winter. The Cubs alsoagreed to a $950K salary with infielder Tommy La Stella, tweets MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. La Stella was projected to make $1MM in his first offseason of arbitration eligiblity and can be controlled through 2020. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs have agreed to a $4.175MM salary, per Nightengale (on Twitter). That sum comes in a fair bit shy of his projected $4.9MM projection as a first-time eligible player. The Cubs control Hendricks through the 2020 season. Chicago also agreed with Addison Russell, per Wittenmyer (Twitter link). The shortstop will receive $3.2MM for the coming season.
  • Nightengale reports (on Twitter) that the Brewers and breakout closer Corey Knebel settled at $3.65MM. As a Super Two player, Knebel can be controlled through the 2021 season and will be arb-eligible thrice more. He was projected at $4.1MM. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that the Brewers and right-hander Jimmy Nelson settled at $3.7MM, which falls $1MM shy of his $4.7MM projection (though some of that discrepancy may be due to Nelson’s shoulder injury). Milwaukee also announced a deal for infielders Jonathan Villar (projected at $3MM) and Hernan Perez (projected at $2.2MM). McCalvy reports that Villar will earn $2.55MM, while terms of Perez’s deal are not yet available.
  • The Pirates have avoided arbitration with shortstop Jordy Mercer by settling on a $6.75MM salary for 2018, tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Mercer, who’d been projected to earn $6.5MM, is entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter. Biertempfel also reports that Gerrit Cole will earn that same $6.75MM salary in 2018 — a $3MM raise over last year (Twitter link). He has two years of control remaining and had been projected to earn $7.4MM. Righty George Kontos has also agreed to terms, per Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). He had projected for $2.7MM and will receive a smidge more, at $2,725,000, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).

National League East

  • The Braves reached a $3.4MM deal with righty Arodys Vizcaino, per Jon Heyman of FanRag (Twitter link). He’d been projected at $3.7MM. The Braves and righty Dan Winkler agreed to a $610K salary for the upcoming season, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Winkler tossed just 14 1/3 innings in the Majors this year as he made his way back from elbow surgery. He’d projected at $800K.
  • The Marlins and Miguel Rojas agreed to a $1.18MM deal for 2018, Heyman tweets, placing him north of his $1.1MM projection. Rojas should see additional playing time following the Marlins’ wave of trades this offseason. He’s controlled through 2020. Miami also has a deal in place with infielder Derek Dietrich for $2.9MM, Heyman tweets, after projecting at $3.2MM.
  • The Mets were able to settle perhaps their most notable arb case, agreeing to a $7.4MM deal with righty Jacob deGrom, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). That’s well shy of his $9.2MM projection, though MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had explained the formula likely overestimated deGrom’s earning power by quite a wide margin. Fellow top righty Noah Syndergaard gets $2.975MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), which goes a fair sight past the $1.9MM projection for the outstanding young starter, whose 2017 season was limited by injury. And reliever AJ Ramos will take home $9.225MM, according to Wagner (via Twitter). That’s just barely past the $9.2MM projection.  Wilmer Flores has also avoided arbitration with the Mets, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $3.4MM salary, which falls within $300K of his projected rate. The Mets control Flores through the 2019 campaign. The Mets and right-hander Matt Harvey agreed to a one-year deal worth $5.625MM, tweets Nightengale. Harvey, who is a free agent next winter, had been projected to earn $5.9MM. Meanwhile, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets that Jeurys Familia will earn $7.925MM for the upcoming year, while Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that catcher Travis d’Arnaud will earn $3.475MM in 2018 (Twitter link). Familia, a free agent next winter, was projected at $7.4MM. The Mets control d’Arnaud through 2019, and his projection was $3.4MM. Righty Hansel Robles gets $900K, Heyman tweets.
  • Also via Nightengale (Twitter link), the Nationals agreed to a $6.475MM salary for 2018 with right-hander Tanner Roark. That falls about $1MM shy of his $7.5MM projection but still represents a noted raise of $4.315MM for Roark, whom the Nats control through 2019. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post adds that Michael Taylor will earn $2.525MM next year. Taylor is controlled through 2020 and was projected at $2.3MM.
  • The Phillies and Maikel Franco settled on a $2.95MM salary for the 2018 season, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (Twitter link). Franco, a Super Two player who’d been projected at $3.6MM, remains under club control with the Phils through the 2021 season. Second bagger Cesar Hernandez will earn at a $5.1MM rate in 2018, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). That beats his $4.7MM projection and wraps up this year’s arb business for the Phillies.
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