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Gregory Santos

AL West Notes: Alvarez, Santos, Scherzer, Gamel

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Yordan Alvarez left today’s 9-8 Astros loss to the Angels due to a right knee contusion, and manager Joe Espada said after the game (to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and other reporters) that the slugger is “pretty sore” and will undergo testing.  While sliding into second base during a third-inning double, Alvarez banged his knee on the ground and had to be replaced by pinch-runner Mauricio Dubon.

Knee problems have bothered Alvarez for much of his career, and he had arthroscopic surgeries on both of his knees back in 2020.  The Astros have primarily used Alvarez as a DH in a nod to these knee issues, and while there isn’t yet any indication that today’s injury is anything more than a bruise, it certainly isn’t a good sign to see one of Houston’s top hitters suddenly facing a health concern just a week away from the playoffs.  Alvarez is enjoying another tremendous season, with a 35 homers and a .305/.309/.564 slash line in a career-high 636 plate appearances entering today’s action.

More from around the AL West…

  • Gregory Santos could be activated off the Mariners’ 15-day injured list within the next couple of days, the Seattle Times’ Adam Jude reports (via X).  Between a season-opening lat strain and then a bout of biceps inflammation that has kept him sidelined since July 31, Santos has appeared in only six games for Seattle this year, delivering a 6.75 ERA in 5 1/3 innings of work.  Santos has also tossed 5 1/3 innings during his six Triple-A rehab outings, with a 1.69 ERA but also with more walks (seven) than strikeouts (six).  Acquired from the White Sox in a notable February trade, Santos hasn’t done much in his first season with the Mariners, but there’s a chance for some late heroics if he can return in time to help the M’s sneak into a playoff berth.
  • Speaking of injury-plagued seasons, Max Scherzer’s 2024 campaign officially ended when a hamstring strain sent him to the Rangers’ 15-day injured list yesterday.  Limited to a career-low 43 1/3 innings in 2024, Scherzer has already stated that he wants to return for an 18th big league season, and he told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry (X link) and other reporters today that he is open to returning to Texas.  Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Dane Dunning, and Cody Bradford are all lined up as rotation locks or candidates for the Rangers next season, so on paper, there might not be room for a reunion with Scherzer even on a one-year deal.  That said, there’s also enough uncertainty within that projected depth chart that Texas might want still seek out more arms, and a pitcher with Scherzer’s track record still has plenty of upside even at age 40.
  • Ben Gamel was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week due to a fractured fibula, and in his weekly appearance on the Astros’ pregame radio show, GM Dana Brown confirmed that Gamel will “most likely” not be available for the postseason.  Between Gamel’s injury, Chas McCormick’s fractured hand, and the new uncertainty about Alvarez’s status, Houston’s outfield is suddenly facing depth issues as the playoffs approach.

Mariners Claim Jonathan Hernandez

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The Mariners announced they’ve claimed reliever Jonathan Hernández off waivers from the division-rival Rangers. Seattle designated righty Brett de Geus for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. The M’s also announced that trade pickup JT Chargois has joined the team and will step into the MLB bullpen. Gregory Santos lands on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 1, with biceps inflammation.

Hernández, 28, changes teams for the first time in his career. He spent more than a decade as a member of the Rangers organization after signing in January 2013. Hernández reached the big leagues in the second half of the 2019 season, not long after his 23rd birthday.

The right-hander had a couple solid seasons to start his MLB career. He turned in a 2.90 ERA across 31 innings during the shortened 2020 schedule. He lost the entire following season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April ’21. Hernández returned for the second half in 2022 and looked to be picking up where he’d left off. He tossed 30 1/3 frames of 2.97 ERA ball for the stretch run. He picked up four saves and 10 holds while finishing 16 games as a medium-leverage reliever.

Things have gone downhill over the past two seasons. Hernández struggled to a 5.40 earned run average a year ago. Texas shuttled him back and forth between Triple-A on a few occasions, burning his final minor league option in the process. That meant the Rangers needed to keep him on the MLB roster this season.

Texas gave Hernández plenty of runway, affording him 41 innings across 26 appearances, but his results didn’t turn around. He allowed a 5.05 ERA with a career-worst 19.9% strikeout percentage and a lofty 14.4% walk rate. The Rangers pushed him out of their bullpen (and thus off the 40-man roster) on Tuesday with their deadline pickup of Andrew Chafin from the Tigers.

Seattle will try to help Hernández right the ship. They’ll also need to keep him on the big league roster unless they decide to designate him for assignment themselves. Hernández still averages nearly 97 MPH on his sinker and misses a decent number of bats with his slider. That solid raw stuff has too often been undercut by poor command, but there’s minimal cost for the M’s in taking a look. They’re assuming a little less than $400K on his $1.245MM salary for the stretch run. Hernández would be under arbitration control for another two seasons if he holds his bullpen spot in Seattle.

The Mariners added de Geus to their 40-man roster back in April. He has made four big league appearances, working 3 1/3 frames of one-run ball. Seattle has mostly kept the 26-year-old on optional assignment to Triple-A Tacoma, where he has allowed a 6.60 ERA across 30 innings in the Pacific Coast League.

de Geus is a former teammate of Hernández with the ’21 Rangers, who plucked him from the Dodgers in the Rule 5 draft. He combined for 50 innings of 7.56 ERA ball between the Rangers and Diamondbacks that season and didn’t get back to the big leagues until this year. Seattle will likely put him on waivers this weekend.

As for Santos, the offseason trade pickup missed most of the first half due to a lat strain. He returned to make six appearances before leaving Wednesday’s appearance with biceps soreness. He’ll miss at least the next two weeks, though Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times fortunately tweeted this afternoon that imaging came back clean.

Mariners Activate Gregory Santos From 60-Day Injured List

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The Mariners are getting a big arm back in the bullpen, as they announced Monday that right-hander Gregory Santos has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Seattle already had an open 40-man spot to accommodate the move, and righty Emerson Hancock was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma to open a spot on the active 26-man roster.

Acquired from the White Sox in an offseason trade sending outfielder Zach DeLoach, righty Prelander Berroa and a Competitive Balance (Round B) draft pick back to Chicago, Santos has yet to throw a pitch with the Mariners. The right-hander suffered a lat strain in spring training an has spent the entire year to this point on the injured list. The 24-year-old tossed a pair of shutout innings during a minor league rehab stint, fanning two of his seven opponents without issuing a walk. That was sufficient for the Mariners to activate him.

Last year with the White Sox, Santos broke out with 66 1/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball. For a pitcher who’d been designated for assignment by the Giants and flipped to the Sox for minor league righty Kade McClure, it was an unexpected development and one of the few bright spots in an otherwise awful 2023 campaign for the ChiSox. Santos fanned a roughly average 22.8% of his opponents, turned in an outstanding 5.9% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a very strong 52.5% clip — all while averaging 98.8 mph on his sinker.

In acquiring Santos, the Mariners hoped to be landing five years of a premium reliever to pair with standout closer Andres Munoz and flamethrowing setup stud Matt Brash. That plan hasn’t come to fruition. Brash won’t pitch this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in early May. Santos will make his Mariners debut in the coming days. Munoz has been excellent (1.50 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate, 14 saves), but the setup bridge to him has been handled by spring signee Ryne Stanek, 2023 deadline acquisition Trent Thornton and offseason signee Austin Voth. Santos might not jump right into the mix as the top setup option, but he should be pitching in high-leverage spots before terribly long, so long as he remains healthy.

Mariners Notes: Garver, Santos, Speier

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The Mariners had an injury scare this evening as catcher Mitch Garver was strike in the wrist by a pitch from Twins right-hander Joe Ryan during this afternoon’s game and exited with what Seattle termed a right wrist contusion. As noted by MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer, manager Scott Servais told reporters after the game that x-rays on Garver’s wrist came back negative, but that the club doesn’t plan on making a decision about next steps regarding the 33-year-old until Tuesday given the club has tomorrow off.

Garver came to the Mariners on a two-year, $26MM deal over the offseason. The longtime catcher had gradually seen more and more of his time come at DH during his tenure with the Rangers and joined Seattle ticketed for a regular role at DH while occasionally spelling Raleigh behind the plate as well. Things haven’t exactly gone according to plan for Garver half a season into his Mariners tenure, however, as he’s slashed just .172/.291/.353 in 71 games this year. While he’s hit for decent power and walked at an excellent 13.5% clip, the combination of a massive 30.9% strikeout rate and his deflated .214 BABIP have left him below average overall with a wRC+ of just 90. That’s certainly passable production from a catcher, but far more is to be expected from a player who is essentially being paid to be a full-time DH.

The potential injury comes as a particularly frustrating time for the Mariners as Garver had begun to heat up in the month of June. In 91 trips to the plate this month entering play tonight, Garver had slashed a much more palatable .187/.319/.453 with a 122 wRC+. That improved production is generally backed up by solid peripherals, as well; Garver’s strikeout rate, while still elevated, has dipped to a more manageable 28.6% this month, and he’s walked at an enormous 16.5% clip. A BABIP of just .200 suggests that further positive regression could be in store for Garver, though it now seems possible that will have to wait depending on how much his wrist heals in the coming days.

Even in the event that Garver requires only a few days off, it’s possible the Mariners will look to make some sort of short-term roster move. After all, he and Raleigh are the only two catchers on the club’s active roster, meaning the club could be forced into a tough situation if Raleigh were to get hurt while Garver is down. The Mariners have Seby Zavala and Michael Perez as depth catching options at Triple-A, though neither is currently on the club’s 40-man roster.

In more positive Mariners news, a pair of key relievers appear to be making their way towards a return to action. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times relayed recently that, according to GM Justin Hollander, right-hander Gregory Santos is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment on Tuesday. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes that lefty Gabe Speier is set to throw a bullpen session that same day.

The impending return of the two hurlers is excellent news for the Mariners. Santos, in particular, figured to handle late-inning duties for the club alongside closer Andres Munoz and veteran set-up man Ryne Stanek after the club swung a trade with the White Sox to acquire him just before the start of Spring Training. Unfortunately, that deal has yet to bear fruit as Santos has been sidelined the entire season to this point after suffering a lat strain in mid-March. He could prove to be an impactful arm for the Mariners in leverage situations once healthy enough to take the mound in the big leagues, however, as shown by his 3.39 ERA and 2.65 FIP in 66 1/3 innings of work with Chicago last year.

As for Speier, the lefty has missed the past month with rotator cuff issues but was in the midst of a frustrating 2024 season prior to his injury. In 22 appearances with Seattle this year, the lefty has struggled to a 6.06 ERA in spite of peripheral numbers that remain mostly solid. Speier has struck out a strong 29.3% of batters faced this year but has dealt with some poor fortune on batted balls and sequencing, as demonstrated by an elevated .325 BABIP allowed and an unsustainable strand rate of just 61.3%, far below the typical 70-75% range for the average hurler.

Not all of Speier’s struggles have been self-inflicted, of course; the lefty has allowed free passes at a worrying 13.3% clip this year, a massive change from the 5.1% walk rate he posted with the Mariners last season when he posted a 3.79 ERA and 3.35 FIP in 69 games. The Mariners will surely be hoping that’s the version of Speier they get back once he’s healthy enough to return, which MLB.com suggests is unlikely to be until after the All Star break.

Mariners Notes: Crawford, Canzone, Saucedo, Santos, Woo

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The Mariners’ 8-1 win over the Athletics on Friday marked Seattle’s fourth-highest run total of the season, in a positive sign for the club’s search for lineup consistency.  With offense generally down around the league, the Mariners’ 98 wRC+ still puts them ahead of 11 other teams, but naturally there’s still plenty of room for improvement.  The Mariners’ 28.7% strikeout total is the highest in MLB, and they also rank 24th of 30 clubs in both batting average (.225) and runs (147).

Some lineup reinforcements could be on the way, as shortstop J.P. Crawford is close to beginning a minor league rehab assignment.  Mariners GM Justin Hollander told reporters (including Adam Jude of the Seattle Times) that Crawford could possibly start the assignment this very weekend, as Crawford completed batting practice and a full fielding drill prior to yesterday’s game.  Crawford hasn’t played since April 23 due to an oblique strain, and given how oblique problems often have a wide range of recovery times, it’s a good sign that Crawford appears better after such a relatively short period.

Crawford wasn’t exactly off to a roaring start prior to his injury, as he had only a .198/.296/.302 slash line in his first 98 plate appearances.  A .227 BABIP could be largely responsible for those numbers, though Crawford’s Isolated Power metric was down to .105 — much more akin to his career norms before last season’s big spike up to 172.  The shortstop enjoyed the best offensive season of his career in 2023, hitting .266/.380/.438 with 19 homers and a league-best 94 walks over 638 PA, translating to an excellent 134 wRC+.

Albeit in a much smaller sample size, Dominic Canzone had a comparable 133 wRC+ in 35 PA this season before hitting the injured list himself with a left AC joint sprain.  Canzone suffered the injury crashing into the outfield wall while making a catch in the Mariners’ 3-2 loss to the Cubs on April 14, so it looks like he’ll miss just over a month since the outfielder is starting a Triple-A rehab assignment today.  Hollander said the plan is for Canzone to play four minor league games before being evaluated for a possible activation from the 10-day IL.

Tayler Saucedo was placed on the 15-day IL last Wednesday due to a hyper-extended right knee, but Hollander said Saucedo’s MRI results suggested that the left-hander might only miss the minimum 15 days.  The news isn’t as good for another pitcher on Seattle’s injured list, as Gregory Santos’ recovery timeline has now been stretched into July.  Santos has yet to pitch this season due to a lat strain and was already on the 60-day IL, so he wouldn’t have been able to pitch until late May at the earliest.

The initial expectation was that Santos would be able to return either immediately once that 60-day window was up, or perhaps a few days or a week afterwards.  However, Hollander said that Santos’ throwing program was recently shut down, and the reliever has only recently started throwing again in the 60-90 foot range.

Bryan Woo was another pitcher who hadn’t yet taken the hill in 2024, as a bout of elbow inflammation in Spring Training forced Woo onto the 15-day IL to begin the season.  Woo made his return yesterday against Oakland and looked very sharp in allowing only one hit and one walk over 4 1/3 shutout innings, but he had to make an early exit due to right forearm tightness.

Despite the ominous-sounding nature of a forearm issue, Woo and M’s manager Scott Servais told MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer and other media that the removal was precautionary, and that Woo is expected to make his next start.  Woo suggested that “it was just sitting for a long time” during an extended bottom of the fourth inning, when the Mariners scored five runs.

“It was a long inning. You sit for that long, especially coming back from injuries, like it gets kind of cold and it’s kind of hard to get it going again. So it’s kind of been like a theme throughout the rehab process,” Woo said.

Mariners Select Leo Rivas, Place J.P. Crawford On Injured List

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The Mariners have placed shortstop J.P. Crawford on the 10-day injured list with a right oblique strain, per a team announcement. Infielder Leo Rivas’ contract has been selected from Triple-A Tacoma, and he’ll take Crawford’s spot on the roster. Righty Gregory Santos was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move. More specifically, Crawford tells Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that he’s dealing with a Grade 1 strain (X link).

Crawford was scratched from yesterday’s game after experiencing tightness in his right oblique. He was sent for an MRI that revealed the strain. The Mariners haven’t provided a timetable for his return, but even Grade 1 strains — the least severe — of an oblique can sideline players for upwards of a month. Manager Scott Servais said prior to today’s game that utilityman Dylan Moore will be in line for the bulk of the shortstop reps while Crawford is on the shelf (X link via Divish).

The timing of Crawford’s injury is unfortunate. He’d gotten out to a slow start in 2024 but had just begun to turn the tides, hitting safely in nine of his past ten games and batting .275/.383/.360 during that span. He’s still hitting just .198/.296/.302 on the whole but had clearly been trending in the right direction prior to sustaining the injury.

Crawford’s absence will cost the Mariners their everyday leadoff man and shortstop. He’s emerged as a consistent presence atop the lineup, slashing .262/.352/.384 from 2021-23 while playing sound defense at shortstop (where he won a Gold Glove in 2020). Swapping him out for the 31-year-old Moore is likely a downgrade on both sides of the ball.

While Moore has plenty of experience at shortstop — and at nearly every position on the diamond — it’s his weakest position by measure of both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. Moore is a .217/.344/.398 hitter since 2022 (118 wRC+), but that production has come with the benefit of being heavily platooned; he won’t have that luxury in an everyday role and figures to face plenty of right-handers, against whom he’s just a .198/.302/.368 hitter.

Rivas, 26, is receiving his first call to the bigs. The Mariners are his third career organization, as he was originally signed by the Angels as a teenager and has also spent time with the Reds. He’s out to a strong start in Triple-A Tacoma, where he’s posted a .308/.422/.462 slash in 66 trips to the plate. Getting on base has never been an issue for Rivas in the minors, where he touts a career .378 OBP. He lacks power, however, evidenced by a career-high of seven homers and a lifetime .106 ISO (slugging minus average). Divish notes that Servais touted Rivas’ defense multiple times as a reason that he was given the call in the wake of Crawford’s injury.

AL West Notes: Verlander, García, Santos, Brash, Sasaki

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A pair of Astros starting pitchers are making progress on their way back from injuries. Justin Verlander spoke to reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) after a successful batting practice session against live hitters on Monday. He believes his next step will be a minor league rehab assignment. Manager Joe Espada provided a similar update, telling Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that his ace “should be ready to go out on a rehab assignment” as long as he “comes back tomorrow feeling well.” Espada suggested Verlander would need more than one rehab appearance before he can return to the Astros, but the skipper did not provide an exact timeline for the three-time Cy Young winner’s return. Verlander has recovered from the shoulder injury that kept him on the sidelines this spring. Still, he needs more time to build up his arm strength before pitching in an MLB game.

Meanwhile, Luis García has begun to throw off a mound, and Espada says the righty is “ahead of schedule” in his recovery from a UCL injury (per Rome). The 27-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery last May. While he still has plenty of work to put in before he can return to the majors, the Astros are hopeful he can rejoin the rotation by July if all goes well (per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Over 64 games (62 starts) from 2021-23, García pitched to a 3.63 ERA and 3.86 SIERA.

More news from around the AL West…

  • The Mariners received some good news today when reliever Gregory Santos’ MRI came back clean (per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). He had been dealing with a flareup of inflammation in the strained lat that kept him out for all of spring training. According to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, Santos needed the MRI to come back clean in order to resume his throwing program; the hard-throwing right-hander has now begun “light baseball activities” (per Jude). The Mariners have not yet provided a timeline for his return, but they are surely hoping to get him back sooner rather than later. Santos pitched to a 3.39 ERA and 3.32 SIERA in 60 games for the White Sox last season.
  • In other Mariners bullpen news, Matt Brash is making progress as he recovers from right elbow inflammation. While Mariners GM Justin Hollander would not provide an exact timeline for any of his injured arms, he suggested that Brash is the furthest along in his rehab (per Jude). Like Santos, Brash is a hard-throwing right-hander coming off a breakout year. In 78 games last season, he posted a 3.06 ERA and 2.86 SIERA, winning nine games and collecting 24 holds.
  • Eight teams recently sent representatives to watch NPB ace Roki Sasaki pitch in Japan. The Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets, and Yankees were previously reported to be four of those clubs, and now Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reveals that a scout from the Rangers was also in attendance. That leaves three remaining mystery teams present at Sasaki’s latest starts for the Chiba Lotte Marines.

Bryan Woo To Begin Season On IL Due To Elbow Inflammation

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Mariners GM Justin Hollander spoke to reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) this evening and provided medical updates on several players. Most notably, Hollander revealed that right-hander Bryan Woo will open the season on the injured list due to elbow inflammation. Hollander added that Woo underwent an MRI which showed no damage to Woo’s UCL. Joining Woo on the injured list to open the season is outfielder Sam Haggerty, who the GM (as relayed by Divish) noted is dealing with a personal medical issue not related to baseball.

Hollander compared Woo’s current ailment to a bout of forearm inflammation that sent him to the shelf last August. Woo ended up missing just over two weeks due to that issue, a fact that potentially indicates the young right-hander could be slated for a similarly minimal absence this time around as well. Hollander noted that the club hopes the inflammation will have faded in 7 to 10 days, at which point Woo would be able to resume throwing.

Even a short absence for Woo is an unfortunate turn of events for Seattle. The 24-year-old righty made his MLB debut with the club last season and made 18 starts in the big leagues, pitching to a roughly league average 4.21 ERA with a 4.36 FIP in 87 2/3 innings of work. While Woo paired a solid 25.1% strikeout rate with an 8.4% walk rate, he saw a hefty 13.4% of his fly balls leave the yard for home runs last year. That proclivity toward the long ball limited Woo’s ability to establish himself as a mid-rotation starter, though even if he were to fail to take a step forward he’s shown the ability to be a quality back-end arm for a Mariners team loaded with controllable pitching talent.

With Woo set to begin the season on the shelf, Seattle figures to turn to right-hander Emerson Hancock to take the fifth spot in the rotation behind Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller. Hancock, the sixth-overall pick from the 2020 draft and a former consensus top-50 prospect in the sport, also made his big league debut last season. In a trio of starts with the Mariners, the right-hander posted a decent 4.50 ERA with a 4.09 FIP. He struck out six while walking three across his 12 innings of work. That cup of coffee in Seattle is Hancock’s only experience above the Double-A level, where he owns a career 3.99 ERA and 24.1% strikeout rate in 210 innings across 44 starts.

As for Haggerty, the loss of the switch-hitter to open the season could have an impact on the club’s bench mix. Since arriving in Seattle after being claimed off waivers from the Mets prior to the 2020 season, the 29-year-old has posted roughly league average offensive numbers in four years as a reserve outfielder with the Mariners. He’s done particularly well the past two seasons, slashing a solid .255/.345/.382 with a 111 wRC+ in a combined 135 games with the club.

While Haggerty’s switch-hitting bat and ability to handle all three outfield spots and even the right side of the infield on occasion have made him a valuable bench piece for Seattle in recent years, the Mariners appear well equipped to handle his absence. Julio Rodriguez is locked into center field on an everyday basis as the club’s star player, and with the likes of Mitch Haniger, Dylan Moore, Luke Raley, and Dominic Canzone vying for playing time at the outfield corners, Haggerty was at risk of being squeezed off the roster even prior to the injury.

In addition to the IL announcements, Hollander also provided an update on the status of right-hander Gregory Santos, who is nursing a lat strain that will keep him off the roster to open the 2024 campaign. Divish relays that Santos is scheduled to undergo an MRI later this week. If said testing comes back clean, Santos will then resume his throwing program. It’s a welcome update for a Mariners club that is expected to be without two high-leverage relievers in Santos and right-hander Matt Brash to open the season. Free agent addition Ryne Stanek and southpaw Gabe Speier figure to set up for right-handed flamethrower Andres Munoz while Santos and Brash are out of action.

Mariners’ Gregory Santos Suffers Lat Strain, Won’t Be Ready For Opening Day

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Mariners right-hander Gregory Santos sustained a “mild” lat strain while warming up yesterday and will not be ready for Opening Day, general manager Justin Hollander announced to reporters Tuesday (X link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com). A precise timetable isn’t available, but Santos is expected to be down for a matter of weeks, rather than months.

The health of Santos and fellow setup man Matt Brash (or rather, the lack thereof) has been a major storyline for the Mariners during spring training. Brash at one point was feared to have sustained a season-ending injury, but he’s since been diagnosed with only elbow inflammation and cleared to resume throwing. Santos felt some discomfort near his teres major muscle early in camp and was briefly shut down. He resumed throwing a couple weeks back but felt a “pinch” during yesterday’s long toss session and reported it to the team, Hollander explained. That prompted an MRI, which revealed the current strain.

Uncertainty in the Seattle bullpen only grew when one of their depth options, righty Jackson Kowar, experienced elbow pain and was diagnosed with a UCL tear. He’ll undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the 2024 season as a result.

The Mariners, suddenly facing the prospect of three injuries in the bullpen, pivoted and signed free agent right-hander Ryne Stanek to a one-year deal late last week. He’ll give them another experienced arm to add to the late-inning mix, though Stanek is coming off something of a down season and won’t necessarily be able to replicate the level of performance expected from Brash and Santos.

The Mariners acquired Santos from the White Sox in a late offseason trade sending a Competitive Balance (Round B) draft pick and prospects Zach DeLoach and Prelander Berroa to the White Sox. It was a fairly steep price to pay, but Santos broke out with 66 1/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball for the South Siders in 2023. He fanned a roughly average 22.8% of his opponents, turned in an outstanding 5.9% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a very strong 52.5% clip — all while averaging 98.8 mph on his sinker. Add in that he’s controllable for another five seasons, and the appeal becomes all the more clear.

Thankfully for the Mariners, it appears Santos has avoided the type of significant lat strain that has caused various pitchers monthslong absences in recent years. If he’s able to return early in the season, as today’s update suggests, then the Mariners figure to have one of the game’s better bullpens. Brash and Santos are high-end setup options for one of the game’s premier relievers: closer Andres Munoz. Stanek is a veteran option with setup experience who can work in the middle innings. Last year’s unheralded acquisitions of Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo and Trent Thornton all yielded excellent results, and even if that trio sees some regression, it’s a deep and talented group if the M’s can get their top names healthy at the same time.

Matt Brash Could Face Lengthy Absence

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Feb. 29: The Mariners are hoping to have a formal update on Brash’s status tomorrow, manager Scott Servais said Thursday (X link via Divish).

Feb.  28: Mariners setup men Matt Brash and Gregory Santos were both shut down last week due to arm troubles, and while it appears there’s good news on one, the outlook on the other is ominous. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that Santos played catch yesterday and is beginning a throwing progression, but Brash is potentially facing an “extensive” absence. There’s some concern that Brash’s entire 2024 season may be in jeopardy, per Divish.

An absence of even moderate length for Brash would be a critical blow for the Mariners, who acquired the hard-throwing righty in a heist of a trade with the Padres and have since watched him blossom into a top prospect and potentially elite reliever. Brash’s 3.06 ERA in 70 2/3 innings last season is an impressive mark on its own, but that number doesn’t appropriately highlight some off-the-charts secondary metrics and a sensational four-month finish to close out the 2023 season.

Even as Brash posted a pedestrian 4.28 ERA through the season’s first two months, he was striking out a staggering 39.8% of his opponents against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (1.92) and SIERA (2.34) were far, far more bullish on his work than his more rudimentary ERA.

Those numbers indeed proved a portent for a breakout. From Memorial Day weekend through season’s end, Brash turned in a sensational 2.36 ERA. His strikeout rate in that time clocked in at 32.4% against a 9.7% walk rate. Brash averaged a blistering 98.2 mph on his heater, generated swinging strikes at a hefty 15.4% clip and induced chases off the plate at a 33.6% rate — all while keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 44.4% clip. He finished the season with four saves and another 24 holds. Skeptics may want to see him sustain that over a full season or two, but that overpowering stretch had all the characteristics of one of MLB’s best relievers.

Unfortunately, it seems Brash might not get the opportunity to prove he can sustain that breakout for some time. Neither the team nor the player himself has provided any specifics as to the nature of the arm injury with which he’s dealing. Brash downplayed the issue last week, telling Divish and others that he’s simply “banged up,” while GM Justin Hollander merely stated that the hope was for Brash to return to a throwing program sooner than later. The lack of any real detail on the injury seemed foreboding at the time.

If the 25-year-old Brash is indeed going to be sidelined for a substantial portion — or, far worse, the entirety — of the 2024 campaign, a strong Mariners bullpen will take an unequivocal hit. Seattle relievers were fourth in the Majors with a 3.48 ERA last season and led the big leagues with a 3.64 SIERA. Brash played a major part, as did the since-traded Justin Topa, who went to the Twins as part of the Jorge Polanco deal.

The surprise acquisition of Santos late in the offseason helped to compensate for Topa’s departure, but a major injury for Brash would be difficult to overcome. His production throughout the summer and down the stretch in 2023 simply isn’t the type of performance that can be readily replaced.

The Mariners would still have one of the game’s best relievers, Andres Munoz, closing out games. Santos would headline a setup corps also featuring Gabe Speier, Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo — all of whom posted solid numbers in 2023 but have minimal big league track records.

There’s also still at least one notable reliever in free agency (Ryne Stanek), and the Mariners have had perhaps more success than any team in MLB at converting unheralded waiver pickups and minor league signees into impact relievers in recent years. Flamethrower Carlos Vargas, acquired in the Eugenio Suarez trade, is one power-armed candidate for such a breakout in Seattle. None of that takes away from the magnitude of a notable Brash injury, and at this stage of the offseason, the options to make a move to counteract such a significant loss are limited.

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