Greg Holland

Cardinals Sign Greg Holland

By Steve Adams | March 31, 2018 at 8:38am CDT

March 31: The Cardinals have made the signing official.

March 30: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Holland’s salary is not pro-rated. He will earn the full $14MM sum regardless of when he is added to the big league roster. Beyond that, his contract comes with the standard awards bonus package ($50K for All-Star or a playoff MVP Award, $250K for Rivera/Hoffman Relief Award, etc.).

It does not, however, sound like anything will be finalized today. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that the Cards are still reviewing his physical and still need to lay out a preparation plan for Holland to get into game shape.

March 29, 10:35am: Heyman tweets that Holland will earn $14MM on a one-year deal with the Cardinals.

10:25am: Mark Saxon of The Athletic reports that the two sides have agreed to terms on a deal (Twitter link). The contract is still pending a physical.

10:16am: The Cardinals and free-agent closer Greg Holland are moving close to a deal, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The 32-year-old Holland, a client of the Boras Corporation, is the lone remaining top-tier free agent that has yet to sign.

Holland paced the NL with 41 saves and 58 games finished as the Rockies’ closer last season but stands alone as the last remaining top-tier free agent on the open market. Reports have indicated that the righty received an offer to return to the Rockies earlier this winter, but Colorado pivoted and signed Wade Davis after Holland didn’t bite on their initial proposal.

St. Louis will stand to benefit from a collapsed market, as they’ll now land one of the better available relievers of the winter for a value that falls shy of the $17.2MM qualifying offer and $15MM player option that Holland rejected back in November. The Cards had previously been set to enter the season with Luke Gregerson handling ninth-inning duties, but the veteran Gregerson has been slowed by an oblique injury in camp and, more recently, a hamstring issue that will shelve him to open the year. Dominic Leone figures to open the season in the ninth, though he could very well give way to Holland once the former All-Star works his way into game shape.

The Cardinals, clearly, will be hoping for the dominant form that Holland displayed through the season’s first three months before wilting in the second half of the year. August proved to be a particularly dreadful month for the former Rockies stopper, as he surrendered 14 runs on the strength of four homers in just 9 1/3 innings.

While he rebounded with a solid finish in September, Holland’s fastball velocity and location were off for much of the summer — even when his ERA wasn’t reflecting it — and his struggles returned against the Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card game. Of course, given that the 2017 season was Holland’s first back from September 2015 Tommy John surgery, it’s perhaps not surprising that he faded down the stretch. Certainly, it’s plausible that fatigue played a significant role in those difficulties.

In order to sign Holland, the Cardinals will forfeit their second-highest pick (their second-round selection) in the 2018 draft as well as $500K of international money. Because he signed a contract for less than $50MM in total guarantees, Holland will net the Rockies a draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B — in the 75 to 80 range of the draft.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Lindor, Bauer, Rangers, Ichiro, Bae, Boxberger

By Mark Polishuk | March 27, 2018 at 11:55pm CDT

It doesn’t look like the Indians will reach any extensions with Francisco Lindor or Trevor Bauer before the season begins, though the team did at least explore the possibility of long-term deals with both players, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes. It isn’t any surprise that the Tribe looked into gaining some cost certainty on either man even though Bauer is already controlled through the 2020 season and Lindor through 2021. In the latter’s case, Lindor is still a year away from salary arbitration, though one wonders if Lindor may feel confident enough in his abilities to forego guaranteed money now and wait until free agency to chase an even bigger contract. He already turned down an extension offer reportedly worth around $100MM last offseason, and his stock has only risen after a superb 2017 campaign.

Here’s more from around the baseball world as we enter the offseason’s final day…

The Rangers seems to be done their offseason shopping, as GM Jon Daniels stated to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan and other reporters. “I couldn’t be more clear, I don’t expect any more significant acquisitions. There is not a lot going on from our standpoint in the free-agent market,” Daniels said. This also seems to include a pursuit of Greg Holland, as Daniels reiterated that Texas plans to be flexible with the ninth-inning role and allow a closer to emerge from several candidates. Adrian Beltre, for one, still feels that a more established arm is needed, as he feels the end-game plan is “an area that’s going to be a question mark. Normally, when you have really good teams, you have [a closer.] You have closers out there in the free-agent market. … Ideally for me, you get a closer, put him in there and use him.”
Ichiro Suzuki may begin the season on the DL to give him more time to fully recover from a right calf strain, with Mariners manager Scott Servais telling the Associated Press and other media that a decision will be made tomorrow when the team sees how Suzuki is feeling after playing seven innings today. Utilityman Taylor Motter looks to make the Opening Day roster if Ichiro isn’t available.
The Pirates’ interest in Korean shortstop prospect Ji-Hwan Bae dates back almost two years, Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes, and the team was finally able to land the 18-year-old after he was made a free agent following the Braves’ international signing scandal. Given a second chance at the signing, Pittsburgh again made a push, and Bae said (via an interpreter) that he chose them over other suitors because the “Pirates were the most active team approaching” about a contract. The Pirates thought enough of Bae to give him $1.25MM, the second-largest bonus the franchise has ever given to an international prospect, and GM Neal Huntington feels Bae can stick at shortstop over the long term.
Brad Boxberger has been named the Diamondbacks’ closer, the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro and others reported. Boxberger posted a league-best 41 saves in his first season as the Rays’ closer back in 2015, though injuries both cost him the job and limited him to 53 2/3 total innings in 2016-17. Now healthy, Boxberger could again blossom into an effective late-game weapon for Arizona, though Piecoro notes that the larger factor in the Diamondbacks’ decision might’ve been the team’s preference to keep Archie Bradley as a fireman rather than in a strict ninth-inning role. For updates on every team’s closing situation, be sure to follow MLBTR’s sister Twitter feed @CloserNews.

MLBTR Poll: When Will Greg Holland Sign?

By Jeff Todd | March 27, 2018 at 8:48am CDT

We’ve already seen most of the backlog of high-profile free agents clear out late in camp. But one familiar name remains available: closer Greg Holland, whom we profiled in full back in January. Despite some uncertainties, he was and is quite an accomplished reliever who seemed worthy of a rather large and lengthy contract.

Though it seemed at one point he’d return to the Rockies, and reportedly had a $50MM-or-so offer on the table, Holland’s market has gone dark of late. Over the past month or so, teams such as the Braves, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Rangers have been tied loosely to Holland. The Cards seem to be the most obvious match on paper, as a contender with a fairly hefty budget and an unresolved closing situation. But they haven’t yet emerged as a strong pursuer.

On the whole, there’s simply no indication that any of those organizations, or any others, are hot after the veteran righty — let alone willing to make him a significant, multi-year commitment. True, it’s still anyone’s guess what kind of contract Holland will secure. (Remember that Alex Cobb did still score a long-term pact after the similarly placed Lance Lynn did not.) But the smart money may now be on some kind of creative, one or two-year arrangement not unlike the one he signed last winter when coming off of Tommy John surgery.

Rather than thinking about what Holland will get, though, today’s poll will focus on when he’ll finally put pen to paper.

At this point, there’s no chance that Holland will be on an Opening Day roster. Presumably, though, he’s pitching on his own and wouldn’t require a terribly lengthy window to reach MLB readiness. Perhaps, then, it’s still sensible to believe that he’ll come to agreement in relatively short order and be prepared to pitch for nearly all of the coming season.

In theory, a signing could come in the next few days. Waiting until after the start of the season to sign once was once a strategically meaningful consideration, but is not of ongoing consequence now that repeat qualifying offers have been outlawed as part of the new CBA’s tweaks to the QO system.

Of course, waiting until the season is underway might still hold some appeal for other reasons. There could certainly be some merit to waiting to see how closer situations shape up around the game. Turnover in the ninth inning is hardly a new thing, but it’s not often that a ready-made solution is standing by to be signed whenever the need arises. Organizations that face early-season crises, whether due to injury or performance, would then have an intriguing alternative in Holland.

The question, then, would become whether Holland will wait until after the June draft to ink a new contract. That was the approach taken by fellow Scott Boras clients Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew, who agreed to partial-season deals in 2014 after the draft compensation attached to their signings had dissipated. As a high-leverage reliever, Holland might be even better situated for this approach. Though he wouldn’t be marketing a full season of output, he might still earn well since he’d be valued most for his contributions down the stretch and into a hypothetical postseason run.

So, when do you think Holland will end up finally choosing his new club? (Link for app users.)

Market Notes: Youth, Holland, Werth, Rays, D-backs

By Kyle Downing | March 24, 2018 at 5:28pm CDT

The fans are more excited about youth than ever before, writes Grant Brisbee of SB Nation. That’s good news for the owners, as they’re getting rich off the youth movement flooding this era of baseball. Young players are cheap, and Brisbee points out why that matters in an example featuring the Astros’ World Series lineup. Their first five hitters were George Springer, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel; the latter made about $5MM more in 2017 than the first four combined. Having elite young talent under control on relatively cheap salaries allows teams the financial flexibility to fill a few holes en route to a championship-caliber roster. As Brisbee notes, player salaries are determined more by circumstance than by talent nowadays, describing this fact as “the secret of baseball, the only part of Moneyball that really matters.” After seeing proof of concept from the Cubs and Astros in recent years, fans are actually getting excited about rebuilds and trades for prospects, which means ownership has less of a reason to spend money on players that Brisbee describes as “just a guy” types. This quote from his piece describes it best: “Prospects aren’t just future major leaguers; they’re memorable seasons and postseason runs that haven’t happened yet.”

A few more market-related items…

Jim Bowden of The Athletic confirms in a tweet that the Braves, Diamondbacks and Cardinals have all checked in on free agent reliever Greg Holland. However, none of them feel as though they can be competitive financially based on the right-hander’s current asking price. Bowden suggests that Holland should take the best offer on the table. With less than a week left until opening day, it’s hard to argue that point.
Jayson Werth is still looking to continue his career, as he tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The 38-year-old is currently working out and waiting for someone to give him an opportunity. He’s coming off a season in which he hit just .226/.322/.393 and missed nearly three months due to a toe injury, though he still managed double-digit homers in half a season’s worth of plate appearances. The fact that his walk rate has been above 10% in every season of his career could also make him worth a look.
Werth could be a good fit in theory for the Rays. The club is still on the lookout for a right-handed hitter who can play the outfield, according Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Jose Bautista and Melky Cabrera represent the top remaining options on the free agent market. Players like Domingo Santana and Hunter Renfroe could potentially be had in a trade, though neither of them would come cheap.

Injury Notes: Sale, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Gregerson, Lincecum, Hughes

By Kyle Downing | March 24, 2018 at 4:03pm CDT

Red Sox starter Chris Sale left today’s start after being struck by a comebacker off the bat of J.D. Davis. Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald was first to tweet that the club called it a hip contusion. Thankfully for fans in Boston, the X-rays on his hip came back negative (according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). For his part, Sale himself has said that he feels fine and that it “looked a lot worse than it actually is.” The lack of serious injury to their prized left-hander brings a sigh of relief to the Red Sox, as they need him now more than ever; Alex Cora announced today that both Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz will begin the season on the DL (h/t Sean McAdams of the Boston Sports Journal). With Steven Wright set to face a 15-game suspension, that leaves Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez at the back end of the club’s rotation. With David Price no sure bet to stay healthy, any questions surrounding Sale would have been wildly unsettling for a club hoping to compete with a tough Yankees ballclub for the AL East crown.

Other injury-related news from around the league…

Luke Gregerson, who was projected to be the Cardinals’ closer on opening day, will instead begin the season on the DL. Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch outlines the news, which comes as a result of a hamstring strain. The usually-durable Gregerson had also dealt with an oblique injury earlier in the spring, and it’s unclear when he’ll be able to return to major-league action. According to Jon Morosi of MLB.com, the club has said that Dominic Leone or Tyler Lyons will receive closing opportunities. They do not appear close to any sort of deal with free agent closer Greg Holland at this time, Morosi adds.
Speaking of right-handers who’ll begin the season on the DL, Tim Lincecum’s blister issues will put him in that company as well. Lincecum joined the Rangers on a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary just weeks ago and didn’t pitch competitively in 2017; by his own words, he was unlikely to be ready for opening day anyway. Still, the blister issue will delay The Freak’s comeback bid, which will be an interesting story to watch as the season progresses considering how much he impressed scouts in a February showcase. Lincecum’s last MLB stint was with the Angels in 2016, when he posted a 9.16 ERA across 38 1/3 innings (nine starts).
Twins right-hander Phil Hughes has a mild oblique strain, according to a tweet from Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Berardino adds that a DL stint would give him more time to build up arm strength following surgery, though I’d add that Hughes might simply be utilized in a long relief role anyway. For the time being, the Twins will continue to evaluate Hughes.

Latest On Greg Holland

By Steve Adams | March 15, 2018 at 1:08pm CDT

The market for Greg Holland has seemingly been tepid, at best, in recent months. Two teams that have at least considered him as of late, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman, are the Braves and the D-backs. Atlanta has “checked in” on Holland, while Arizona has considered a run at him as well. One oft-connected team that doesn’t seem likely is the Nationals, as Heyman adds that the they’re “not planning” to pursue him at this juncture of the offseason. (That aligns with comments GM Mike Rizzo made to the media early this afternoon.)

The Diamondbacks already have a plethora of arms vying for bullpen spots, though as the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro recently pointed out, there are potentially as many as three spots up for grabs. Archie Bradley is considered to be among the ninth-inning favorites in D-backs camp, with Brad Boxberger and Yoshihisa Hirano also vying for saves, but Holland would give them a more established arm and deepen the overall bullpen mix in a year Arizona plans to contend. Payroll, of course, could be an issue for the D-backs, though it wasn’t long ago that they were trying to find creative ways to fit J.D. Martinez onto the books.

As for the Braves, their late-inning mix is also murky. Arodys Vizcaino figures to open the year in the ninth inning, with Jose Ramirez, A.J. Minter and Sam Freeman among the setup options helping form the bridge from the rotation to Vizcaino. There’s obviously strong incentive for the Braves to forgo signing Holland. As a rebuilding club that may not yet be ready to contend, the Braves surely don’t relish the idea of surrendering draft picks to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer.

I’d add that at the same time, the Braves needn’t fret much over the international forfeitures they’d face, as they’ll he handcuffed in that regard anyhow following the November scandal that prompted John Coppolella to resign as GM. Beyond that, high-end bullpen arms are always in demand at the deadline, and it’s not outlandish to think the Braves could receive a better prospect than the one they’d acquire with the third round pick they’d be forced to punt. (Losing the slot value of that pick in their draft pool, however, would limit their ability to get creative, though.)

Finding teams that make sense as an on-paper fit for Holland is hardly a problem. Virtually any club in the league could stand to improve by pushing its seventh-best reliever to the minors and adding Holland to the bullpen mix. However, we’ve already seen a significant portion of the league largely sit out the free agent market, and at this stage of the offseason, more teams are up against payroll limits and reluctant to forfeit a draft/international considerations. There’s still enough time in spring that Holland could potentially make a handful of appearances before Opening Day, but the longer he waits, the more his early-season availability will be called into question.

Market Notes: Jay, Moustakas, Cobb

By Jeff Todd | March 13, 2018 at 8:33am CDT

Several reporters have turned their gazes back on the more confounding free-agent market in recent memory, chronicling some of the more incongruous results and providing additional reporting on how it all unfolded. We’ll run through some of the key points here:

It’s always worth remembering that free agency is a game that features plenty of variability and would never (theoretically) be played the same way twice. Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on what might have been for some players. Logan Morrison and Greg Holland both asked for more than was being offered and ended up being bypassed when teams checked down to other targets. The Mariners, says Olney, dangled three years to veteran outfielder Jon Jay before they struck a trade for Dee Gordon. (That rather surprising offer could have had quite a domino effect on the outfield and second base markets had it been accepted.) On the other hand, Olney cites Angels sources that reject the notion the club offered Mike Moustakas a $45MM contract, as had been reported. Of course, had any of those situations developed differently, it’s possible we’d just be talking about different players whose markets collapsed.
As part of his lengthy examination of the brutal winter for free agency, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has an interesting note on one of the few top players yet to have signed. Veteran starter Alex Cobb, he says, was in position to secure a four-year, $48MM offer at one point earlier in the winter (from an unknown team) and “easily” could have landed a three-year guarantee. We’re obviously still waiting to see just what Cobb will ultimately earn, but needless to say, it seems unlikely he’ll reach the levels he might have had previously. In the meantime, several lesser pitchers have gone on to sign fairly solid, multi-year deals, perhaps absorbing some of the demand that might have led to a better payout for Cobb.
Every period of free agency produces highs and lows, of course, but they seem particularly pronounced this time around with such an array of outcomes. Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag have each run through the winners and losers on this shocker of a market.

Central Notes: Royals, Liriano, Cobb, Brewers

By Steve Adams | March 12, 2018 at 7:32pm CDT

The Royals would still like to add help in either the rotation or the bullpen, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, but their payroll is elevated to the point where they have very little room for further additions. As such, a reunion with still-lingering free agent Greg Holland seems “extremely remote,” Nightengale adds. Over the past couple of weeks, the Royals have signed Lucas Duda ($3.5MM), Jon Jay ($3MM) and Mike Moustakas ($6.5MM) in a late trio of additions, pushing their payroll up into the $122MM range.

AL West Notes: Holland, Bush, Ohtani, Zych

By Kyle Downing | March 10, 2018 at 9:27am CDT

The Rangers don’t appear to have anyone firmly in place as the their closer, though the recently-signed Tim Lincecum is one candidate to win the job. There’s at least a possibility that they could fill the position externally, as Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports in his latest “Inside Baseball” column that the team has considered bringing Greg Holland into the fold. We haven’t heard much other chatter about interest in Holland recently. The outgoing Rockies closer is MLBTR’s third-best free agent remaining, and the odds of him surpassing the offer he reportedly received from the Rockies earlier this winter (something in the three-year, $51MM range) aren’t good. This is particularly true considering the fate of the two Scott Boras clients to sign contracts most recently; Mike Moustakas recently received just a one-year deal at a $6.5MM guarantee from the Royals, while Carlos Gonzalez is said to be finalizing a one-year, $8MM contract with the Rockies.

Other recent items out of the AL West…

Speaking of the Rangers’ bullpen, the team hasn’t yet decided whether to utilize former closer Matt Bush as a starter or reliever this season, according to Evan Grant of SportsDay. By his own admission, Bush had trouble finding consistency in his most recent spring training outing, walking two and allowing a homer on 43 pitches. In 52 1/3 innings with the Rangers last season, Bush pitched to a 3.78 ERA and a 4.57 xFIP. He saved ten games during his brief stint as the club’s closer, but he blew another five save opportunities that came his way.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports provides feedback from some scouts on the bat of Shohei Ohtani, the Angels’ most high-profile offseason acquisition. These eight MLB scouts (seven of whom have seen Ohtani this spring) aren’t high on the Japanese phenom’s chances to produce offensively at the major league level. According to Passan, these scouts believe that “[p]itchers are going to punish him with inside fastballs, his swing contains flaws in balance and mechanics, and he needs at least 500 plate appearances of seasoning in the minor leagues to give him a chance at becoming a productive major league hitter.” One in particular noted that Ohtani did not hit from a balanced base, adding that he needed to “cheat” on inside fastballs, which would theoretically leave him susceptible to other pitches. Of course, it should be noted that Ohtani’s never attempted to hit major league pitching before this spring; one would think he deserves a reasonable adjustment period before jumping to any conclusions about his hitting ability.
On the flip side of the coin, Joel Sherman of the New York Post details some concerns about Ohtani’s pitching. Sherman notes that he lacked high-end velocity in his most recent spring training start, mostly throwing between 91-94 MPH with some command issues. Though he generated 17 swings and misses (an extremely impressive number in just a few innings), he also uncorked a triad of wild pitches. Sherman wonders whether this can simply be chalked up to growing pains, or if it’s part of a more serious issue. The obvious caveat to this is that minute spring training sample sizes aren’t entirely indicative of cause for panic.
Mariners reliever Tony Zych is undergoing medical tests for what’s being described as shoulder discomfort, according to Greg Johns of MLB.com. Though Seattle’s setup man improved his ERA to an impressive 2.66 in 40 2/3 innings last season, he experienced a steep dropoff in his strikeout rate, down to 7.75 batters per nine innings from a 12.66 career mark prior to 2017. He didn’t make any appearances past August 19th due to arm issues.

Scott Boras Reports Progress On Remaining Free Agents

By Jeff Todd | March 7, 2018 at 6:11pm CDT

6:11pm: Boras spoke with Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star about Moustakas at greater length, and Mellinger suggests that Boras and Moustakas may be comfortable waiting until after the June draft to sign. At that point, there’d be no draft compensation attached to Moustakas, and there’d also be the possibility that more teams have unexpected needs at third base (or that unexpected contenders are looking to add).

Boras isn’t directly quoted regarding the possibility of waiting until June, it should be noted, and the agent spoke with some optimism that Moustakas could yet find a landing spot before the season begins.

“The teams are coming, and Moose is going to be playing baseball,” said Boras to Mellinger. “But I don’t control time, and I don’t control competitiveness. The question is when do those teams want to commit to winning, and of course I think he’ll be playing, yes.”

Boras does note that free agency would be a “totally different world” for Moustakas were draft forfeitures not attached to signing him, pointing out that the new CBA stipulates that players can only receive one QO in their career. With that in mind, perhaps Boras and Moustakas would be amenable to a one-year pact that would allow for another crack at the open market next season, when Moustakas will still be a relatively youthful 30 years old.

11:03am: Agent Scott Boras, who represents many of the top remaining free agents, suggested to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that at least some of his clients could be nearing new contracts. (Twitter link.)

Boras represents four still-unsigned players who had spots on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list: Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Greg Holland, and Carlos Gonzalez. Four other players with other representation from that list of fifty names also remain available.

Morosi says he posed the question to Boras whether deals were imminent for any of his four top free agents. This was the response:

“We’re closer to deals than we were two weeks ago. Some of those things are only a phone call away.”

Clearly, there’s nothing earth-shattering in that quote. But it’s nevertheless notable to hear that real progress has been made. And given Boras’s frequent barrage of criticisms over the course of the offseason, it’s also worth emphasizing that this relative optimism could well be a real indication that the end is in sight for some of these players — particularly given the clear suggestion that there are some firm offers on the table.

Of course, there’s also little in the way of specifics. In some cases, Boras clients still seem to face relatively meager prospects for maximizing their value. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently examined the remaining top-fifty free agents in a piece that covers the field of potential suitors and illustrates the less-than-ideal leverage situation from the players’ perspective.

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