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2018 Vesting Options Update

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We already took a preliminary look at the vesting option scenarios playing out around the game, but we’ve now gained quite a bit of clarity over the last six weeks. Generally, vesting options are club options that can become guaranteed based on the player’s health and/or performance. Typically, achieving contractually defined thresholds (such as for plate appearances or games finished) takes the decision out of the team’s hand, with some clauses also requiring certain health standards to be triggered.

Here’s where things stand at present:

Already Vested

  • Greg Holland: That was fast! Holland has already racked up thirty games finished, meaning that what was a $10MM mutual option for 2018 has been converted into a $15MM player option. With a league-leading 25 saves in the bank, along with 29 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA pitching, it seems unlikely that Holland will take that cash rather than testing the open market — though he could also have to turn down a qualifying offer and hit free agency weighed down a bit by draft compensation. (Notably, too, Holland is cracking into some hefty contract incentives. He is on track to earn most or all of the $11MM in available bonus money.)

On Track To Vest

  • Gio Gonzalez: While Gonzalez is pitching well enough to make it a foregone conclusion that the Nationals would pick up his 2018 option at $12MM, that step won’t be necessary if he ends the regular season with 180 innings on his ledger. Working deep into games has been an issue for Gonzalez in recent years, but he has already topped 100 frames through just 16 starts thus far in 2017. Barring an injury, this one looks quite likely to vest.

Unlikely To Vest

  • Ricky Nolasco: The 34-year-old faces an uphill battle, but he’s at least keeping it interesting. Nolasco can turn a $13MM club option ($1MM buyout) into a player option if he gives the Halos 202 1/3 frames this year. That’s a big number, but Nolasco has managed to log 90 2/3 innings through 16 outings, leaving 111 2/3 left to achieve. Even if he takes the ball another 16 times the rest of the way, he’d need to go seven innings per start — a pace typically achievable only by a few top aces around the game. (Currently, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale top the leaderboard with 113 2/3 frames.)
  • Matt Cain: The Giants are sure to pay Cain a $7.5MM buyout rather than picking up his $21.5MM option for the 2018 campaign. But the veteran righty could take that decision out of the team’s hands if he’s able to reach 200 innings this year and stay off of the DL at season’s end. Cain has made all 16 of his starts so far, but he has accumulated only 84 innings. While it’s a theoretical possibility, then, it’s all but certain that this option won’t vest — and the Giants have every incentive to see that it doesn’t.
  • Hisashi Iwakuma: When the season started, it seemed reasonably likely that Iwakuma would trigger his second vesting season — as he did last year with the first. After compiling 199 innings in 2016, he needed to accumulate only 125 more (and avoid an unspecified injury) to lock up a $15MM payday. But Iwakuma is currently parked on the DL with just 31 frames in the bank; even if he is able to work deep in most of his remaining starts, he almost certainly won’t have enough to accumulate the 94 additional innings he needs. If he doesn’t get there, then Seattle will decide between a $10MM salary and a $1MM buyout.

Will Not Vest

  • Andre Ethier: Ethier’s $17.5MM club option vests upon 550 plate appearances in 2017. He has been shelved for the entire first half of the season, so he’ll have to take home a $2.5MM buyout as a consolation prize.
  • Matt Garza: This one is complicated, but here’s the bottom line: Garza cannot possible make enough starts to reach 110 in total from 2014-17 (he’s currently at 82), so his option cannot vest at $13MM. At the same time, it’s no longer possible for him to miss 130 or more days of action to the DL this year, so the club won’t get a shot at a $1MM option for his 2018 rights. Instead, the deal reverts to a club option at $5MM. See? It’s simple.
  • J.J. Hardy: The extension that Hardy signed with the O’s a few years back includes a $14MM club option (or a $2MM buyout), but that would vest if Hardy ended the 2017 campaign with 600 plate appearances on his stat sheet. That always seemed a stretch, but with his recent DL placement it’s no longer even possible.

Heyman’s Latest: Nats, Cutch, Marlins, Cole, Cobb

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Jon Heyman of Fan Rag takes a look around the league in his latest notes columns. In addition to providing updates on every National League and American League team, he takes a particularly close look at the Nationals in separate posts. Let’s take a look at some of the items of particular relevance to the transactional landscape:

  • The Nationals are beginning to put in phone calls to rivals as they start the search for a new closer in earnest, Heyman writes. Among the players under consideration by the team, at present, are a variety of names with differing contract situations. David Robertson of the White Sox, Kelvin Herrera of the Royals, and A.J. Ramos of the Marlins all have two years remaining at less-than-bargain rates (the latter two via arbitration). Alex Colome of the Rays and Roberto Osuna of the Blue Jays, meanwhile, bring more years of cheap control — and, in all likelihood, astronomical asking prices. Then there’s old friend Mark Melancon, who is in the first year of the four-year pact he signed with the Giants — who evidently beat the Nats’ offer over the winter. Needless to say, there’s quite a lot that could change that picture over the coming months.
  • Looking back a bit, the Nationals came closer than any other team to landing Andrew McCutchen from the Pirates over the winter, Heyman adds.Per the report, the sides held talks that “revolved around three players, including Lucas Giolito and veteran Gio Gonzalez.” It’s not immediately clear what else might have been involved, and where things went south, but it’s interesting to hear those parameters. The Nats ultimately pivoted to Adam Eaton, of course, but he’s now out for the year. Perhaps it’s conceivable that the team could take another look at McCutchen, though no doubt the teams would need to start discussions anew with Giolito in Chicago, Gonzalez a key member of the Nats staff and McCutchen struggling.
  • The Marlins sale talks had seemingly been building, but Heyman writes that there’s no deal ready to be made at present. For one thing, there are whispers that the purchase price will continue to drop as the organization’s financial health comes under greater scrutiny. For another, there are still questions about where the money will come from on the buyer’s side. “[A]t least the Bush-Jeter group and maybe the Romney-Glavine group, too, [are] still seeking investors,” per Heyman.
  • Two significant recent investments made by the Marlins aren’t delivering value at present. Per Heyman, lefty Wei-Yin Chen is headed for a second opinion with his elbow issue still failing to progress. It seems the team could be bracing for a relatively lengthy absence. And Heyman notes that some in the baseball operations department weren’t thrilled at the idea of extending Martin Prado last year at $40MM over three years. He has been playing well enough, but is back on the DL with a recurring hamstring injury.
  • Pirates righty Gerrit Cole has looked strong in the early going, but Heyman says the team may not be interested in dealing him even if they continue to lag in the standings. “We’re not in any rush,” a club source tells him. “I don’t think we’re there yet.” The 26-year-old owns a 2.84 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9; while the peripherals are largely in line with his 2016 work, the improved results are supported by jumps in swinging-strike rate (9.9%) and average fastball velocity (a career-high 96.1 mph). With two more years of arb eligibility to go, Cole would likely command a big price at the deadline.
  • While the Rays entered play today just one game under .500, that doesn’t mean they aren’t readying for the possibility of selling. Of course, given the team’s pitching depth, it’s imaginable that the team could send out a veteran while still maintaining hopes of cracking the postseason. Per Heyman, Tampa Bay has “already begun calling to get a gauge on the value of Alex Cobb.” Rivals also think the club will be amenable to discussing both Jake Odorizzi and Chris Archer, he adds. Cobb, though, is the most obvious possible trade chip. The 29-year-old was homer-prone in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, but has looked solid through 56 1/3 innings this year — his last before reaching free agency. He carries a 3.67 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 to go with a 47.5% groundball rate. Cobb still isn’t getting swings and misses like he used to, but his velocity is better than ever and he has tamped down on the long balls thus far.

Nationals Notes: McCutchen, Gio, Harper, Fedde, Ross

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Last December’s Andrew McCutchen trade talks between the Nationals and Pirates included top prospect Lucas Giolito and left-hander Gio Gonzalez, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Heyman notes that talks between Pittsburgh and Washington centered around three players, and he reported back in December that Giolito and minor league righty Dane Dunning were a part of McCutchen talks. Some combination of Giolito, Dunning and Gonzalez (whose salary is roughly similar to that of McCutchen) certainly seems like a nice haul for the Pirates, though to be fair, Heyman hasn’t specifically listed that trio in a singular report, nor is it clear that said trio was ever actually offered. Furthermore, it’s not known whether the Nationals or the Pirates are the team that backed out of talks before Washington sent Giolito, Dunning and Reynaldo Lopez to the White Sox in exchange for Adam Eaton. McCutchen is off to an ugly .214/.286/.393 start at the plate, though Giolito hasn’t fared much better in the minors. Through 34 1/3 Triple-A innings, he’s posted a 6.55 ERA with 9.4 K/9, 5.0 BB/9 and a 43.3 percent ground-ball rate.

More notes on the Nats…

  • Asked about what type of money Bryce Harper will command in free agency, the GM of another club tells Heyman that he believes Harper will command closer to $500MM than $400MM on the open market. Furthermore, he stated a belief that $400MM is the “baseline” for a Harper contract in free agency. There’s been plenty of consternation among fans about whether Harper has truly lived up to the hype surrounding him in his career, though his 2015 NL MVP and .376/.491/.744 start to the 2017 campaign are undeniably strong points in his favor. Harper won’t turn 25 until the season comes to a close, and he’s already been worth 24-26 wins above replacement (depending on one’s preferred version of the metric). Whether that makes him worth an investment approaching half a billion dollars is, of course, another debate, but he certainly looks to have rounded back into form after reports of a shoulder injury that plagued him throughout a “down” season (by his standards) in 2016.
  • Nats general manager Mike Rizzo explained the team’s decision to move top prospect Erick Fedde to a bullpen role this season to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Washington felt it would have to limit Fedde’s innings this year one way or another, and keeping him in a rotation role would’ve meant shutting him down in the minors at some point. However, by moving him to the ’pen, the Nats can not only manage his innings but also take a look at the former first-rounder on the Major League roster at some point. “If he was farther away from the big leagues in our mind, we probably would just shut his innings down when they were over, and utilize that,” said Rizzo. “…We thought all along that if we were to see Fedde in the big leagues this year, it would probably be in a relief role … as the bullpen struggled and we had three guys on the disabled list at one time, we thought this was a good time to use the transformation to get him into the bullpen.”
  • Rizzo also explained to Zuckerman that the Nats consider right-hander Joe Ross “too valuable” as a starting pitcher to consider a similar shift to the bullpen. Rizzo stated that Ross’ stuff is “too good” and referred to him as a “proven starter,” though the Nationals do currently have Ross in Triple-A in an effort to improve his effectiveness against left-handed opponents. Rizzo notes that Ross is “100 percent” healthy but may have been losing his release point as he worked deeper into starts.

2018 Vesting Options Update

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Each year, the free-agent class is impacted by the performance of players with vesting options (as is the financial future of players with said provisions in their contract). For those unfamiliar with the option, a vesting option is typically (though not always) a club option that can automatically trigger based on the player’s health and/or performance. Meeting pre-determined criteria for games played, innings pitched and plate appearances are the most common ways of triggering a vesting option. Some also require that a player avoid the DL at the end of the season and/or for a certain number of games over the course of the year.

Here’s a look at all of the 2018 player options that can automatically trigger based on the players’ 2017 performance…

  • Matt Cain: The 2017 campaign is the final season of a six-year, $127.5MM extension that Cain signed with the Giants on April 2, 2012. Prior to that point, Cain had been one of the most durable and efficient starters in the NL, but injuries have completely derailed Cain’s career since that 2012 season. Cain hasn’t thrown more than 90 1/3 innings since 2013, and so far he’s delivered just a 4.64 ERA in 455 1/3 innings over the five extra years of control the Giants bought out. If he can reach 200 innings this season and is not on the disabled list due to elbow or shoulder troubles to end the year, his $21.5MM club option would become guaranteed. However, he’s averaging fewer than 5 1/3 innings per start in 2017, and his previous health woes make that decidedly unlikely. His option comes with a $7.5MM buyout, which seems like an inevitable outcome.
  • Andre Ethier: Ethier batted .273/.351/.429 through the first three seasons of his five-year, $85MM extension (including particularly strong efforts in 2013 and 2015), but he played in just 16 games last season and has been on the disabled list for the entire 2017 season (herniated disk in his lower back). His $17.5MM club option would automatically vest with 550 plate appearances this season, but that’s obviously not going to happen, so he’ll receive a $2.5MM buyout instead.
  • Matt Garza: Garza’s four-year, $50MM contract with the Brewers contained one of the more convoluted vesting options in recent memory. Injury concerns surrounding Garza allowed the club to land a team option valued at a base of just $5MM. However, had Garza made 110 starts over the contract’s four years, pitched 115 innings in 2017 and avoided the DL at the end of the 2017 season, the option would’ve become guaranteed at $13MM. On the other side of the coin, the Brewers would’ve been able to pick it up at just $1MM had Garza missed 130 or more days during any single season of the contract. Neither of those scenarios will play out at this point, though. All of that is a long-winded way of saying that Garza’s option won’t be vesting at $13MM and will come at a potentially reasonable rate of $5MM.
  • Gio Gonzalez: Gonzalez’s five-year, $42MM extension came with a $12MM club option for the 2017 season (which was exercised) and a $12MM club/vesting option for the 2018 campaign. If the left-hander reaches 180 innings this season, he’ll be locked in at $12MM next season. For a player as durable as Gonzalez, who averaged 31 starts per year from 2010-16, that seems simple enough. But, Gonzalez has had difficulty working deep into games and has not crossed the 180-inning threshold since 2013. This season, though, he’s already racked up 44 1/3 innings through seven starts — an average of about 6 1/3 frames per outing. He’d need only 29 starts at that pace to trigger the option. And even if he doesn’t sustain that innings pace, if he can avoid the DL and average even 5 1/3 to 5 2/3 innings per start for the rest of the year, he’d accrue enough innings to guarantee that option. Of course, if Gonzalez delivers anything close to the 3.57 ERA he’s turned in through parts of six seasons as a National, the team will likely pick up the option even if it doesn’t vest.
  • J.J. Hardy: Hardy decided to forgo the open market at the end of the 2014 season, instead re-upping with Orioles in early October on a three-year, $40MM deal. His contract comes with a $14MM club option ($2MM buyout) that could automatically vest in the event that Hardy reaches 600 plate appearances this season. Hardy, however, has reached that total just twice in six previous seasons with the Orioles, and he’s hitting a mere .196/.232/.252 through his first 113 plate appearances in 2017. Based on his recent health track record, it could be considered unlikely that he stays healthy enough to trigger the option. But if he does remain healthy and doesn’t turn things around at the plate, the O’s won’t have a hard time justifying a reduction in playing time to prevent the option from vesting.
  • Greg Holland: Holland signed a one-year, $7MM deal with a mutual option for the 2018 season, though so long as he remains healthy it’s effectively a two-year, $22MM contract with a player option/opt-out provision. Holland’s $10MM mutual option becomes a $15MM player option if he appears in 50 total games or finishes 30 games in 2017. He’s come out of the gate roaring as a dominant closer in Colorado, just as he was in Kansas City. Holland has already finished 14 games, meaning he needs just 16 more to trigger that player option and secure the right to re-enter the open market. An injury seems like the only thing that will stand in Holland’s way, as he’s currently sporting a 1.29 ERA with a 17-to-5 K/BB ratio, a career-best 51.6 percent ground-ball rate and a 93.9 mph average fastball through his first 14 innings.
  • Hisashi Iwakuma: After injury concerns stemming from Iwakuma’s physical caused the Dodgers to back out of a reported three-year, $45MM agreement in the 2015-16 offseason, Iwakuma instead returned to the Mariners on a one-year deal with a pair of vesting options. Iwakuma needed 162 innings to trigger his 2017 option, and he needed either 162 innings in 2017 or 324 innings between 2016-17 to trigger his $10MM option for the 2018 season. The 36-year-old racked up 199 innings last year, meaning he now needs just 125 innings in 2017, though he must also avoid the disabled list at season’s end as well. Iwakuma has barely averaged five innings per outing (31 through six starts), but he also needs just 94 more innings this year for that option to kick in.
  • Ricky Nolasco: Nolasco’s option isn’t a standard vesting option, but his $13MM club option would become a player option with 400 innings pitched between 2016-17. The 34-year-old logged 197 2/3 innings last year, meaning he’d need 202 1/3 innings in 2017 in order to convert his option. That’s a total that Nolasco has reached only twice in his career, and he’s not on pace to approach that number through his first seven starts of the season. If Nolasco were to make the same number of starts as last season (32), he’d need to average nearly 6 2/3 innings per outing for the rest of the season to reach that level. If he ties his career-high with 33 starts, he’d need to average 6 1/3 frames through season’s end. It’s technically possible that Nolasco does end up with a $13MM player option, but the likelier scenario is that the Halos will choose between a $13MM club option and a $1MM buyout. (Thanks to MLBTR commenters paytoplay and jdobson1822 for pointing out Nolasco’s option.)

Cot’s Contracts was used in the creation of this post.

Quick Hits: Cutch, Nats, Pirates, Crisp, Dodgers, Soler, Rangers

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Financial reasons played a key role in the Nationals’ offseason decision to trade for then-White Sox center fielder Adam Eaton instead of the Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link). With his $4MM salary this year, Eaton is much cheaper than McCutchen ($14MM), and acquiring the latter would have forced the Nationals to jettison left-hander Gio Gonzalez and his $12MM price tag in a separate deal, says Rosenthal. In addition to having concerns over how their payroll would have looked with McCutchen, the Nationals had no interest in meeting Pittsburgh’s lofty demands for the five-time All-Star. Washington bought high on Eaton, whose excellent 2016 helped convinced the club to give up high-end pitching prospects Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning for him. McCutchen, on the other hand, had a career-worst season last year, yet the Pirates wanted an even more impressive package for him than the Nationals sent the White Sox, according to Rosenthal. Pittsburgh held out for both pitching prospects and major leaguers, leading the Nats to go in another direction.

More from around the sport:

  • Outfielder Coco Crisp said during the winter that he wasn’t ready to retire, and even though he still hasn’t landed a contract, the 37-year-old wants to continue playing, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Crisp hasn’t been able to find work on the heels of a season in which he hit an underwhelming .231/.302/.397 with 13 home runs and 10 stolen bases in a combined 498 plate appearances with the Athletics and Indians. He was worse in the field, accounting for minus-10 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-11.1 Ultimate Zone Rating.
  • Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias “might” make his first big league start of 2017 in the coming week, manager Dave Roberts said Saturday (via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). Urias would step in for Alex Wood, who Gurnick notes would return to the bullpen after making a start in place of the injured Rich Hill on Friday. The 20-year-old Urias tossed 5 2/3 scoreless innings and 93 pitches Friday with Triple-A Oklahoma. As for Hill, who has dealt with chronic blister issues since last year, he has “tinkered” with a new grip during his latest DL stint, per Roberts. Hill has also tried to cure his problems with pickle juice and rice, among other methods mentioned by Gurnick. It seems the 37-year-old has made progress in his recovery. “It’s toughened up for sure,” Hill said of the blister.
  • Jorge Soler is getting closer to making his Royals debut. The outfielder, on the shelf since March with an oblique injury, began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday, relays Dave Sessions of MLB.com. The Royals are unsure when they’ll call up Soler, whom they acquired from the Cubs for closer Wade Davis over the winter. When Soler is healthy enough to return, his bat “could be a big boost,” manager Ned Yost said. Kansas City’s offense entered Saturday dead last in the majors in both runs and wRC+, so its lineup certainly needs a jolt.
  • Rangers minor league left-hander Joe Palumbo will undergo Tommy John surgery during the upcoming week, tweets TR Sullivan of MLB.com. Palumbo, one of the Rangers’ 10 best prospects, will now lose a year of development as a result of a torn ulnar collateral ligament. The 22-year-old was extremely impressive this season at the High-A level, where he recorded a 0.66 ERA, 14.49 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9 in 13 2/3 innings.

Trade Notes: Gio, Wilson, Tigers, Rangers, Szczur, White Sox, Kelly, Cardinals

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The Nationals failed to land Chris Sale today, and instead have reportedly turned their attention to another White Sox starter, Jose Quintana. If they had acquired Sale, though, they likely would have tried to trade lefty Gio Gonzalez, ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes. As Stark suggests, the 31-year-old Gonzalez would make an attractive trade candidate in his own right — he’ll make a reasonable $12MM in 2017, with a club/vesting option for another $12MM in 2018, and he’s eaten over 1,300 innings over the past seven seasons. His 4.57 ERA in 2016 was among his worst, but his underlying numbers (8.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 47.6 GB%) don’t suggest a massive change in ability. Here are more quick notes on potential trades:

  • GM Al Avila says the Tigers player who’s been most popular lately among teams hoping to make trades has been lefty reliever Justin Wilson, MLive.com’s Evan Woodberry writes. “The highest level of interest has been on Justin Wilson,” Avila says. Avila has also fielded calls about Shane Greene, but Woodberry writes that the Tigers are less likely to trade Greene, since, unlike Wilson, he’s under team control for the league minimum salary next year.
  • The Rangers continue to be among the teams interested in Wilson, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets. Grant reported yesterday that the two teams had had conversations about Wilson.
  • The Rangers have also asked the Cubs about Matt Szczur, Grant tweets. The 27-year-old Szczur batted .259/.312/.400 while playing all three outfield positions for the Cubs last season. He might be a better fit on a team like the Rangers that’s currently a bit short on established outfielders, rather than one like the Cubs who have plenty.
  • The White Sox are interested in acquiring young catching, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets. If they end up trading Adam Eaton to the Cardinals, one player they might target is 22-year-old backstop Carson Kelly, who batted .292/.352/.381 for Triple-A Memphis in 2016. Kelly currently ranks 11th on MLB.com’s list of the top Cardinals prospects.

Rival Executives Expect Nationals To Be Aggressive

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Executives with rival organizations anticipate some big moves from the Nationals this winter, according to a report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Washington is particularly motivated to build out an already talented roster given its recent postseason failings, he notes.

GM Mike Rizzo appears to be dabbling in several intriguing areas. We’ve already heard of interest in White Sox lefty Chris Sale, and an official with another team says that the Nats “are hovering” on the ace southpaw. While they won’t deal Trea Turner, that exec notes that Rizzo and co. “are open on a lot of different things.”

One other intriguing possibility is Yoenis Cespedes, whom the Nationals pursued with some seriousness last winter. Generally, D.C. is “looking for a right-handed power bat,” one source tells Sherman, noting that the club also looked into Jose Bautista (now a free agent) at the trade deadline.

Whether or not any of those particular concepts comes to fruition is anyone’s guess, but it’s worth bearing in mind that the Nationals have often surprised with his biggest strikes. The signing of Max Scherzer was largely unforeseen, as was the trade for Doug Fister and the swap that netted Turner and Joe Ross.

According to Sherman, the Nats are “aggressively” shopping lefty Gio Gonzalez, who struggled in the earned run department and showed a velocity drop last year, but has largely maintained quality peripherals and thrown a lot of good innings. He’d be an appealing piece to a variety of other organizations, and might bring back a useful veteran at an area of need or simply free up funds and a rotation spot while landing some prospect capital.

As I explained in assessing the Nationals’ offseason outlook, it remains to be seen just how high the organization will push its payroll. Washington is already within $20MM of its team-record 2015 balance sheet, and has several notable needs — including, potentially, a center fielder (or shortstop), catcher, and closer. The club has also been forced to defer salary in several notable instances, at least in part due to the ongoing MASN television rights fees dispute with the Orioles. But with some roster flexibility, intriguing young pitching in the upper levels of the minors, and an apparent willingness to push the envelope, there are plenty of avenues for Rizzo to exercise his creative faculties to improve the roster over the coming months.

NL East Notes: Gio, Rizzo, Mets, Colon, Marlins

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Some news from around the NL East…

  • The Nationals have no plans to deal Gio Gonzalez, GM Mike Rizzo tells Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post.  With an enviable amount of young starting depth on hand, there had been speculation that the Nats could look to deal Gonzalez in order to address other roster needs (MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted this scenario in his recent Offseason Outlook piece on the Nationals.)  Rizzo did hint, however, that Gonzalez’s rotation spot wasn’t set in stone, as the southpaw, Joe Ross, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, A.J. Cole and Austin Voth could all be competing for two starting jobs rather than just the fifth starter role.  One would think that if at least two of these young arms perform well in Spring Training, the Nats could revisit the idea of a Gonzalez swap, though the team would be taking a risk in dealing a proven innings-eater.  In addition, Rizzo said Washington is always looking to add young pitching as a general principle, given its value within the game.
  • Bartolo Colon’s departure is a blow to the Mets both in terms of rotation depth and clubhouse chemistry, though John Harper of the New York Daily News opines that by not re-signing the veteran, the Mets saved some money for more pressing offseason needs.  With Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman in the fold and (hopefully) their regular starters all healthy, spending $12.5MM to re-sign Colon would’ve been an expensive luxury.  Harper feels the Mets could instead focus their offseason spending on re-signing Yoenis Cespedes, or adding bullpen depth.
  • The Marlins’ key offseason focus is pitching, though as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro notes, the team also wants to improve its roster depth, both on the Major League bench and within the farm system.  Jeff Mathis, Jeff Francoeur and Chris Johnson could all return in backup roles, though Frisaro suggests Miami could also look to reunions with ex-Marlins like Emilio Bonifacio, Chris Coghlan or Alejandro De Aza.  A higher-level upgrade would be a player like Steve Pearce, who Frisaro notes the Marlins have shown interest in acquiring in previous seasons.

Nationals Pick Up Gio Gonzalez’s 2017 Option, Decline Yusmeiro Petit’s

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The Nationals have exercised left-hander Gio Gonzalez’s club option for 2017 and declined right-hander Yusmeiro Petit’s, the team announced. Gonzalez will earn $12MM next season, while Petit will hit the open market after receiving a $500K buyout from the Nats.

After logging ERAs ranging from 2.89 ERA to 3.79 in each season from 2010-15, Gonzalez allowed runs at a 4.57 clip per nine innings this year. Picking up Gonzalez’s option was a no-brainer in spite of that, though, especially given that the Nats could take advantage of a weak free agent market and use the 31-year-old as trade bait. Despite his bloated ERA, he still posted solid strikeout and walk rates of 8.68 and 2.99, and generated ground balls at a 47.6 percent clip. Gonzalez threw 177 1/3 innings, his highest total since 2013, and his $12MM club option for 2018 will vest if he manages to rack up 180 frames next season.

Like Gonzalez, Petit took a step back this year, but his was damaging enough for Washington to pass on him at an inexpensive cost for 2017. Petit’s 7.11 K/9 and 2.18 BB/9 aren’t far from his career averages, and he set a career high with a 41.5 percent grounder rate, but his 4.50 ERA across 62 innings is the worst figure he has put up since 2009. Left-handed hitters caused most of the damage this year, teeing off on Petit with a .269/.336/.588 line. He was far more effective against right-handers (.267/.295/.403) and will now try to catch on elsewhere as a bullpen option.

NL East Notes: WBC, Nats, Gonzalez, Blevins, Braves

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For those of you looking for some rain delay reading during one of the craziest games in World Series history, here are a few notes from the NL East…

  • Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper isn’t likely to participate in the upcoming World Baseball Classic, but ace Max Scherzer is open to the idea, writes Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. The WBC provides players with an opportunity to represent their country on a global stage but can be a source of scrutiny as well due to the enhanced risk of injury and, in pitchers’ cases, the increased workload they face when voluntarily adding some intense innings to their schedule before the regular season even gets underway.
  • Janes also writes that the Nationals are likely to exercise their $12MM club option on lefty Gio Gonzalez. That doesn’t come as a significant surprise, as the free-agent market is devoid of starting pitching talent and, as she notes, Gonzalez would figure to command multi-year offers if he reached the open market. Furthermore, his contract contains a vesting option for the 2018 season, so he has two years of club control remaining, so long as he reaches 180 innings pitched in 2017. That’s no sure thing for Gonzalez, who is prone to abbreviated outings and high pitch counts. Those factors and the Nats’ bevy of young arms could prompt the team to explore the trade market for Gonzalez if they decide they’d like to move on, Janes notes, but I’d have to agree that simply declining his option makes little sense even if the team’s preference is to get younger.
  • The Mets would like to have Jerry Blevins back in 2017 and covet a veteran lefty specialist to complement southpaws Josh Smoker and Josh Edgin, per ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin, but team officials expect that the 33-year-old Blevins will find a fairly lucrative multi-year deal in free agency this winter. Blevins was effective in 2016, tossing 42 innings of 2.79 ERA ball with 11.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 45.8 percent ground-ball rate while earning a $4MM salary. A multi-year pact does indeed seem possible for the lefty in spite of some curious reverse platoon splits. The .258/.313/.324 line that Blevins yielded to lefties appears to be largely driven by a .368 BABIP from same-handed opponents, and the .637 OPS that he surrendered is hardly a robust mark anyhow.
  • The Braves have hired Orioles bullpen coach Dom Chiti as their new senior director of pitching, according to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter links). Atlanta is also adding former O’s pitching coach Dave Wallace, per Kubatko. Wallace will function as a roving instructor throughout the team’s minor league system. Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes that Wallace signed a two-year deal with the Braves and adds that the loss is notable for the Orioles organization, pointing out that Zach Britton credits the duo with his development into the dominant closer he has become.
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