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Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton Notes: Tuesday

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MLBTR’s Kyle Downing recently rounded up everything we have learned this offseason about the Marlins’ marketing of star slugger Giancarlo Stanton. But there have been developments over the past few days … some of which are in some tension, perhaps reflecting different viewpoints from the actors involved in the high-stakes negotiations.

  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains that if the two sides get close to a deal, the Marlins could grant the Cardinals an exclusive negotiation window of roughly 48 to 72 hours to make a pitch directly to Stanton. While MLB clubs are typically forbidden from talking to players that are under contract with another team, Goold confirmed with MLB officials that the Marlins could designate a window to “convince a player to waive his no-trade (clause) without contract modification.”
  • Meanwhile, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins told Stanton back in October that if he declined to ultimately approve a deal, the Marlins would have to explore other ways to shed salary, which could leave him as the lone star on a roster devoid of other top-tier talent. The scenario wasn’t presented to Stanton as an ultimatum, Spencer stresses, but it does underscore the possibility that the Marlins could eventually pivot and market less challenging stars, including Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich.
  • The Red Sox are an “extreme long shot” to acquire Stanton, a source tells Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. It seems that Boston is not enamored of the current value proposition that a Stanton acquisition would represent, given the Marlins’ asking price.

Earlier Updates

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Giancarlo Stanton Trade Rumors: Monday

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The Giancarlo Stanton trade saga has been one of the top storylines of the offseason, and there’s no end in sight at the time being. To date, the Cardinals and Giants have reportedly submitted formal offers, while the Dodgers and Red Sox have also been linked to the slugger.

We’ll track today’s developments on the Stanton front right here:

  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that other clubs have gotten the sense that there’ll be resolution on the Stanton talks one way or another by the time the Winter Meetings kick off on Dec. 10 (all Twitter links). That is to say, the Marlins will either have traded him by that point or interested parties will have exhausted their patience and begun to explore other possibilities on the trade and free-agent markets. Crasnick also notes that while the Cardinals and Giants are the most-cited suitors, there are other clubs that are in active pursuit of Stanton.

Earlier Updates

  • Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that Stanton has given the Marlins a list of teams to which he’d accept a trade, and the Dodgers are among those teams (all links to Twitter). Per Morosi, the Dodgers and Marlins have discussed some Stanton trade scenarios, but the Giants and Cardinals have shown more focused interest in Stanton. Some teams interested in Stanton feel the Dodgers are his top choice, which could slow negotiations as Stanton could veto any deal until knowing for certain that the Dodgers don’t plan on making a move for him. At this point, however, Stanton has not rejected any trades, according to Morosi.

Cafardo’s Latest: Stanton, Arrieta, JBJ, Zimmermann

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The latest on Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton comes from the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who reports that the Red Sox currently have “tepid” interest in the NL MVP. Notably, Miami isn’t enamored of Boston’s farm system, per Cafardo, though he notes that the Marlins’ main motivation in trading Stanton would be to rid themselves of his contract. As such, one shouldn’t rule out Stanton to the Red Sox if they’re willing to take on a significant portion of the $295MM coming his way over the next decade.

While it’s unclear how much of Stanton’s deal the Red Sox would be open to absorbing, the Giants are “willing to take on a lot” of it, Cafardo writes. The Giants have shown more interest than anyone else in Stanton, Cafardo hears, and he adds that they’re prepared to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the fourth straight year if necessary. As of now, they and the Cardinals are the only known teams that have submitted offers to the Marlins to acquire Stanton.

More from Cafardo:

  • In addition to the previously reported Brewers and Twins, the Blue Jays, Rockies and Rangers have shown interest in free agent right-hander Jake Arrieta, Cafardo relays. All of those teams have contacted agent Scott Boras about Arrieta, though it’s unclear how serious any of them are about the 31-year-old. The Rangers seem to have the greatest need for Arrieta, who MLBTR projects will land a nine-figure contract, but as Steve Adams pointed out when previewing their offseason, they don’t have a lot of payroll flexibility.
  • The Giants, White Sox and Royals “will likely keep inquiring” about Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. throughout the offseason, Cafardo contends. Each of San Francisco, Chicago and Kansas City have pursued Bradley recently, but the Royals already had Lorenzo Cain occupying center when they went after JBJ in 2015. Now, with Cain likely to depart via free agency, the fit between the Royals and the affordable Bradley is obvious. However, it’s fair to wonder whether the Royals have a good enough farm system to put together a deal for Bradley, who’s controllable through 2020 and will make around $5.9MM next season.
  • The Nationals are interested in reuniting with righty Jordan Zimmermann, but the Tigers would unsurprisingly have to eat some of his contract, according to Cafardo. Zimmermann was at his best with the Nats from 2011-15, but he has experienced a sharp decline since signing a five-year, $110MM pact with Detroit entering the 2016 campaign. The 31-year-old has pitched to an ugly 5.60 ERA in 265 1/3 innings as a Tiger and is owed an unpalatable $74MM over the next three seasons.
  • Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has a full no-trade clause – not a partial NTC – agent Jim Boggs tells Cafardo. Regardless, coming off a back injury-shortened season in which he accounted for minus-1.1 fWAR in 252 plate appearances, finding a taker for Gonzalez, 35, figures to be a tall task for the Dodgers. LA may simply eat the $21.5MM Gonzalez is owed next season in order to jettison him, Cafardo suggests.

What We Know About The Giancarlo Stanton Situation

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As of Black Friday, the 2017 offseason has been astonishingly quiet. The trade and free agent market seems as though it’s being held up in large part by the situation surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. Once that massive domino falls, it’s possible we’ll see a flurry of free agent activity follow. In the meantime, however, Stanton rumors are a heavy focus of the baseball media cycle, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in an in-depth piece earlier this month, his market is wide and complex. As we approach the weekend, here’s an overview of what we know about the Marlins’ attempt to deal their All-Star outfielder.

He’s the best player available on the market- This may be redundant considering I already mentioned his brand new MVP award, but the subject is well worth its own spotlight. His .281/.376/.631 batting line is other worldly, and his 59 homers paced all of baseball in 2017. While his 6.9 fWAR only tied for fifth among all players in the majors, the rest of the top seven (Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout) won’t be available for teams to acquire in a trade. The top three free agents (Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer) aren’t anywhere near as valuable in terms of expected WAR output as Stanton.

Teams perceive his remaining contract as close to market value- According to these three tweets from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, multiple teams told the Marlins that the remaining 10 years and $295MM left on Stanton’s contract are a pretty good estimate of what he’d earn on the open market, were he a free agent this offseason.

He has a lot of power over his own fate- Not only does Stanton have a full no-trade clause in his contract, but he also has the ability to opt out after the 2020 season, at which point he’d leave 7 years and $218MM on the table in search of a new deal. The opt-out makes trading him even more complicated, as it caps the contract value upside for his would-be new team. Meanwhile, the full no-trade protection gives him enormous leverage in the process. Many teams would love to add Stanton to their lineup, and the Marlins are looking to shed payroll. Ultimately, this means the Fish may not end up being able to accept the best offer, and could have to simply settle for the proposal from the city Stanton wishes to play for most.

The Marlins’ leverage over him is nonzero- While Stanton is a coveted asset and enjoys no-trade protection, he’s made it well-known that he isn’t interested in being around for a rebuild. The slugger’s desire to leave Miami could result in him approving a trade he’s not thrilled about just to play for a contender. On the other hand, it could also result in a tense game of chicken between Stanton and the Marlins to see who will bend first. Although the Marlins have a firm mission to shed payroll, they can do so in other ways; they don’t actually have to trade Stanton at all. And as much as Stanton wants to be traded, he might be willing to hold out for a team of his choice and risk staying put. The case is fascinating.

Some evaluators believe the Marlins’ asking price is unrealistic- While Miami’s asking price isn’t entirely clear, it seems as though they’re looking for a team to pay all (or nearly all) of his salary while including prospects. This has led some to suggest that the Fish need a “reality check” in terms of their asking price. If the contract is indeed roughly market value, then it’s difficult to imagine that a team will give up good prospects for the privilege to pay Stanton his full dollar value over the course of the deal.

He prefers to play near a coast- While this doesn’t seem to be a firm deal breaker, it complicates matters for teams like the Cardinals and Phillies, who have the payroll space and prospect depth to swing a trade for the prolific slugger.

The Cardinals and Giants have made formal offers- The Giants were the first to officially submit a trade proposal, with the Cardinals following suit later that same week. This doesn’t mean the trade discussions are finished; those trades could still be tweaked or even scrapped entirely in favor of starting from scratch. But the fact that there are at least two offers on the table gives the Marlins some options to weigh for the time being. It’s not known what those offers are, however, though we do know that the Cardinals included Sandy Alcantara in their proposal. It’s equally uncertain whether Miami even takes those offers seriously.

As many as eight teams are engaged in talks for him- While only six of those eight teams are thought to be serious pursuers, the fact that so many teams are showing strong interest bodes well for Miami and their power in negotiations. In addition to the Cardinals and Giants mentioned above, we know that the Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox have had some level of dialogue with the Marlins. The Yankees, too, have reportedly done their due diligence, though it doesn’t sound as if they’re actively pursuing Stanton.

 

Giancarlo Stanton Notes: Opt-Out Clause, Contract Value, No-Trade Clause

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With rumors continuing to swirl around 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, Craig Edwards of Fangraphs took a close look at the value of the Marlins outfielder’s opt-out clause, and how it might suppress his trade value. It’s well-known by now that after the 2020 season, Stanton will have the power to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM left on his contract to pursue a new deal. Edwards examines scenarios in which Stanton ages well, normally and poorly, estimating his contract’s potential surplus (or dearth of) value in each instance based on projected WAR output. The obvious conclusion is that Stanton’s opt-out clause negatively impacts his trade value. He would be highly likely to opt out if he ages well or even normally, limiting the value he’d provide to his new team in each case. However, if he ages poorly, he’d most likely opt into the remaining seven years on the contract; in such a case he’d provide negative surplus value over the life of the ten years with his new team. The piece uses a series of charts to make a case. It’s a fascinating read from beginning to end, shedding light on the unique risk teams face in deciding upon the prospect value they’re willing to give up for a player who gets to choose whether to be with them for three years or for an entire decade.

More opinion pieces on Stanton on a slow Thanksgiving afternoon…

  • Earlier this month, Eno Sarris of Fangraphs also wrote about Stanton, making the case that teams should be pushing hard to acquire the slugger. Sarris delves into a number of pros: he’s young, he’s not injury prone, he’s capable of incredible offensive output during his prime and his contract could potentially provide $100MM in surplus value if he ages well. The latter point is particularly interesting; Sarris makes the case that part of Stanton’s skill set lies in his plate discipline. Although there’s some swing and miss in the Marlins slugger’s game, he walks a lot and doesn’t often swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. Perhaps the most compelling part of Sarris’ case is the fact that Stanton is available at age 28, which is increasingly rare in an era where many of baseball’s superstars don’t become available to acquire while in their twenties.
  • Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which is an even bigger roadblock for the Marlins than his opt-out clause. Buster Olney of ESPN (insider subscription required and recommended) writes that Stanton should take full advantage of this leverage. The Marlins have made it well-known that they want to cut payroll, and trading Stanton is the most obvious way to do that. Meanwhile, a wide variety of teams will want his potential 60-homer power if he comes at their reasonable price. Due to these factors, Stanton has all the power in negotiations, prompting Olney to express that the NL MVP ought to hold out for a trade to whatever team for whom he wishes to play. “Stanton is in no way obligated to the Marlins or their new ownership to solve their debt crisis for them,” Olney writes. “If they bring a proposal to him in the next week or two and Stanton has any reservations about playing for a team he’s not prepared to wholly embrace, he should say no.”

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Monday

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Another day, another slew of rumors pertaining to the game’s top slugger. Reports over the weekend indicated that the Cardinals have submitted a formal offer to the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton, but that doesn’t mean that there’s any indication a trade involving Stanton is any closer. Here’s the latest on the 2017 home run king…

  • Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that the Marlins and Giants have discussed second baseman Joe Panik, right-handed pitching prospect Tyler Beede and outfield prospect Chris Shaw. The Giants have also discussed the possibility of taking Dee Gordon back in the deal, which would make some sense with Panik possibly being of interest to Miami. It’s worth noting that Mish doesn’t specifically state that the two sides have talked about a Panik/Beede/Shaw for Stanton and Gordon package. To the contrary, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that he hears that is not the framework of a deal being discussed (nor is it close, according to Schulman). It seems, then, that the two sides are likely discussing multiple scenarios and those names have been involved (likely with others) in various permutations. The Giants reportedly made some type of trade proposal on Friday.
  • Mish also tweets that the Cardinals are willing to part with hard-throwing right-handed pitching prospect Sandy Alcantara, who was included in the aforementioned formal offer to Miami. Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com rank Alcantara ninth among Cardinals farmhands, noting he sits at 96 mph with a fastball that scrapes triple digits and also has the potential for a pair of average or better secondary offerings. Baseball America rated Alcantara fourth among Cardinals farmhands just two weeks ago (subscription required & recommended for their full scouting report).
  • Meanwhile, Schulman tweets that the Marlins haven’t reached the point where they’re asking interested teams for their best and final offers for Stanton, thus indicating that an actual trade involving Stanton is not especially close at this time.

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Sunday

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Rumors continue to swirl around Marlins right fielder and trade candidate Giancarlo Stanton early this offseason. Here’s the latest on the NL MVP:

  • The Cardinals “have made a formal offer” to acquire Stanton, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They’re at least the second team to make a pitch to the Marlins for Stanton, joining the previously reported Giants.
  • There are some evaluators around MLB who believe the Marlins need a “reality check” with regards to their asking price for the slugger, Buster Olney of ESPN writes. With $295MM left on his contract and an opt-out clause after 2020 on his deal, Stanton lacks surplus value, per Olney, which jibes with a Morosi report from earlier this week. One executive told Olney that the Marlins are “not going to find teams willing to give up both the money and the prospects, and that’s why [they’ll] probably have to choose: They can either take the talent and eat some of the money, or they’ll have to prioritize the [money] savings.”

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Friday

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You didn’t think we were going to make it to the weekend without another look at the market for Giancarlo Stanton, surely? The Marlins slugger, fresh off of receiving the National League MVP Award yesterday, is still the biggest name to watch. Here’s the latest:

  • Offers are flowing in on Stanton now that the GM Meetings have wrapped up, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes. The Giants have submitted some kind of proposal, according to Rosenthal, with the Cardinals and Red Sox among the other teams believed to be lining up their own concepts for Miami to consider. Rosenthal adds that the San Francisco organization would be willing to take on much of Stanton’s contract, but may in turn need to shed salary elsewhere. It’s interesting to note the Sox’ active interest, since president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski had thrown some cold water on the idea of a major acquisition of late.
  • Stanton himself discussed the odd situation he faces — with his name splashed about headlines due both to his evident availability in trade and his MVP nod — as Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel reports. The Marlins star says he’d rather remain with the Fish, but thinks the team needs to “thoroughly address[]” its pitching with “a huge push” that, frankly, does not seem likely. (Stanton says he’s “not entirely sure” it’s realistic, but adds: “But I know all teams have plenty of money.”) Generally, Stanton called the situation “interesting,” but seems to be at peace with the process. “This is the only place I’ve known,” he said, “but I also understand the business part of it and the direction the new ownership wants to go.”
  • Super-agent Scott Boras sided with Stanton on the spending point in his recent comments to the media, chiding teams like the Marlins for drawing up plans to reduce payroll. But MLB commissioner Rob Manfred defended the rights of organizations — particularly, those with new owners — to modify payroll as part of their long-term strategies, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports on Twitter. “I think it’s unfair, really, to criticize a decision — if it turns out to be the decision — to move a player who has a contract that somebody else negotiated,” Manfred said in an oblique reference to Stanton’s situation. “… I hope that the fans of Miami — whatever decisions are made — give [new Marlins owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter] an opportunity to show what their plan for moving that franchise forward is.”

Giancarlo Stanton Wins National League MVP Award

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Even as we anxiously await news as to whether and where he’ll be traded, Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins has been tabbed as the National League’s Most Valuable Player for the 2017 season by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Joey Votto of the Reds came in a very close second; Paul Goldschmidt of the D-Backs rounds out the top three in the National League.

Stanton outslugged the rest of the National League’s batsmen by a healthy margin, launching 59 long balls and posting a .631 slugging percentage. Even as the Marlins fell shy of hopes, and Stanton came up short of his bid for sixty home runs, the big man was rewarded for his startling power output. Of course, he’s also an accomplished overall batter and a quality defender; while many will disagree with the outcome, he plainly was a worthy candidate given the output of the rest of the field.

Truth be told, it was an exceedingly close race — and that was reflected in the voting tallies. Stanton and Votto each received ten first-place votes, but Stanton took one more second and third-place ranking to nudge into the lead. Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies joined Goldschmidt in receiving top consideration on multiple ballots, ultimately placing fourth and fifth in the final count.

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Wednesday

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The Giancarlo Stanton rumor mill was churning yesterday as teams jockey for position with the Marlins — and, perhaps, with Stanton himself, who can veto any trade. At the end of the day, though, it seemed there was no greater clarity as to where he might be dealt and when a trade might go down.

We’ll use this post to track any new developments today …

  • MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that teams that have spoken to the Marlins have informed them that they feel the 10 years and $295MM on Stanton’s deal is a rough approximation of his market value (all Twitter links). In other words, other clubs don’t perceive there to be much, if any, surplus value on Stanton’s deal. As such, the Marlins will have to pay down a notable portion of the deal to also extract premium prospects from a potential trade partner. One exec suggested that Miami would need to pay as much as $5MM annually in order to receive good prospect value. Morosi notes that the Cardinals and Marlins once again discussed trade concepts today.
  • The Marlins initiated a brief conversation with the Yankees regarding Stanton, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Yankees aren’t considered a serious suitor, though, and the Yankees simply said they’d be open to hearing what the Marlins had in mind, perhaps as a matter of sheer due diligence. Both Yankees GM Brian Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner have publicly stated a desire to dip under the $197MM luxury tax barrier, and Stanton’s $25MM annual salary would obviously get in the way of that goal.

Earlier Updates

  • Marlins CEO Derek Jeter says he has not yet spoken with Stanton, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald was among those to report on Twitter. “If there’s a reason to call him, I’ll call him,” said Jeter. The new Marlins boss did not commit to dealing Stanton and noted that such a move would be complicated, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. But Jeter also suggested that the team cannot continue operating in the same manner financially as it did under prior ownership.
  • Of course, president of baseball operations Michael Hill sat down with Stanton and says he has a sense of what the slugger is interested in. He’s also running point on Stanton talks with other teams. Hill tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that he is putting the onus on suitors to come forward with some information on what they are willing to do to land Stanton. “Until I know where you’re at on the contract, the money, all that stuff, I can’t engage,” Hill said of his rival executives.
  • Rosenthal said that eight teams had engaged on Stanton to this point. Six of those are fairly serious pursuers, according to a report from Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.
  • There’s “little momentum” regarding Stanton between the Dodgers and Marlins, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. Of course, the most notable point at this stage seems to be that the Dodgers are involved at all. Los Angeles seems like a solid fit for Stanton, though it’s also not difficult to imagine the organization preferring not to tie up such a significant portion of its payroll in one contract.
  • John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle ran down the latest on Stanton from the Giants’ perspective. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch did the same with regard to the Cardinals. And WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford explained why he still thinks the Red Sox could be in Stanton (or another superstar hitter) despite some indications to the contrary.
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