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Gerrit Cole

Yankees Meet With Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg

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Dec. 4: Cole assured the Yankees at their meeting that he has “no west coast bias” at an in-person meeting that lasted for more than four hours, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the meeting with Strasburg went well, also. Specific dollars weren’t discussed, as the Yankees first endeavored to give Strasburg an overview of the organization and its pitching philosophies.

Dec. 2: The Yankees’ rotation was under fire throughout 2019, a year in which they came a couple victories short of their first World Series appearance since 2009. The reigning AL East winners are now focusing on upgrading their starting staff, as they’re seriously considering going after the premier starting pitchers on the market. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required), New York’s prioritizing right-hander Gerrit Cole – who, as a member of the Astros – helped knock the Yankees out of the ALCS. The Yankees are also interested in the No. 2 starter available, righty Stephen Strasburg, and they’ll sit down with him and Cole in California sometime over the next two days, Rosenthal reports.

Since the Yankees’ season ended, general manager Brian Cashman hasn’t made it any secret that they’ll scan the top of the market for starting help. However, as deep-pocketed as the Yankees are, it has been quite some time since they’ve gone to the lengths it would require to sign either Cole or Strasburg in free agency.

Cole is likely in line to obliterate the largest contract ever for a pitcher – the seven-year, $217MM deal David Price signed with the Red Sox entering 2016 – while the World Series MVP Strasburg could approach $200MM in his own right. Pacts like that could be problematic for New York if it wants to avoid severe luxury-tax penalties in 2020. In the estimation of Jason Martinez of FanGraphs and Roster Resource, the Yankees are already at roughly $215MM toward the luxury tax for next season, putting them over the first level of $208MM. The second and third levels of $228MM and $248MM, respectively, would obviously be much harder to avoid with Cole or Strasburg in the mix.

Owner Hal Steinbrenner spoke about possibly spending over the largest tax threshold Monday, telling the YES Network (via Tim Healey of Newsday): “It’s a big deal. It’s something we would certainly prefer not to do because there are June draft ramifications, there are numerous ramifications. But that is something I would consider.”

Indeed, if the Yankees were to go past $248MM, their draft slot would fall 10 places in 2020. However, Steinbrenner noted: “[The Yankees already have] a good rotation, but starting pitching, you can’t have enough. Like last year, that’s going to be my focus. You’ll have to ask [Brian Cashman] if he agrees with me or not. That’s all.”

The Yankees already have at least three rotation spots sewn up for next season. Luis Severino, whom injuries prevented from making much of an impact this year, will be back to join a group that boasts James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka as complements. There’s less certainty thereafter, though, with Domingo German on administrative leave for a violation of the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy, J.A. Happ coming off a rough season and Jordan Montgomery still trying to re-establish himself after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Yankees will take advantage of their financial might to sign Cole or Strasburg, but they’re at least mulling it.

Dodgers, Angels Have Held In-Person Meetings With Gerrit Cole

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The Dodgers and Angels “have gotten face time” with free agent ace Gerrit Cole, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Those teams have long rated among the top theoretical possibilities for the California native.

Cole has recently been wooed in person by the Yankees, who’d like to roll out the red carpet for him in the Bronx. Sherman provides a detailed explanation of the organization’s approach — including his belief that Cole’s general predilection for the West Coast won’t prevent him from donning pinstripes.

It’s completely unsurprising to hear of the Halos’ involvement. The organization is desperate to get back to winning, has a glaring need for pitching and money to spend, and is now set to embark upon a new potential revenue source after agreeing to a deal with the city of Anaheim.

As for the Dodgers, they were already known to have held sit-downs with two other high-end free agents. Now, they’re at least a legitimate player on Cole, though the true interest level isn’t known. This level of investment is well within the organization’s financial capabilities but hasn’t really been part of its approach of late. The team has been willing to spend gobs of money on short-term arrangements. Whether it’ll approach Cole with such a scenario, providing an alternative to a lengthier term and greater overall guarantee, remains to be seen.

Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays

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There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.

Here’s more from other areas of the market:

  • Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
  • The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
  • We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
  • The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.

AL Notes: Zunino, Rangers, Apostel, Cole, Boras

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The Rays made the gutsy decision to bet on a bounceback from catcher Mike Zunino in 2020, opting to avoid arb with the former Gator via a $4.5MM deal while Travis d’Arnaud headed for richer pastures in Atlanta. Zunino has never been what one would call a complete hitter, but 2019 represented a personal low from a performance standpoint, with the former top draftee managing just a .165/.232/.312 (45 wRC+) output through 289 plate appearances. Now, the likelihood of a Zunino rebound at the plate may rest on the work of hitting coach Chad Mottola, suggests Josh Tolentino of The Athletic (link).

As Tolentino notes, Mottola was instrumental in helping d’Arnaud find offensive consistency and also helped pull shortstop Willy Adames out of an early-season funk in 2019. Zunino’s real value will likely always lie with the glove (he did record 8.3 Fielding Runs Above Average in limited work in 2019, per Baseball Prospectus), but a return to his 2017 levels (126 wRC+ and 25 homers in 124 games) would certainly be a welcome development. The Rays also hold a $4.5MM option on Zunino for the 2021 season.

More notes from around the American League…

  • The Rangers’ decision to draft two third basemen, Josh Jung and Davis Wendzel, with their top two picks in the 2019 draft led many to believe that the future of that position was well in hand, but the toolsy Sherten Apostel should not be counted out as a long-term answer, opines Levi Weaver of The Athletic. Originally acquired alongside Taylor Hearn in a 2018 deadline deal that sent Keone Kela to Pittsburgh, Apostel is likely to start 2020 at High-A Down East alongside Jung. Despite his 6’4 frame, organizational observers are bullish about his ability to stick at the hot corner, and his prodigious raw power prompted Single-A Hickory manager Matt Hagen to credit the 20-year-old Curacao native with “man-child” strength. Apostel managed a .251/.339/.440 slash line and 19 home runs across 478 plate appearances between two levels last year. Of course, the position could be addressed via a long-term signing this offseason, with our writers settling on Texas as a realistic destination for free agent Josh Donaldson in early November.
  • While much has been made of Gerrit Cole’s professional relationship with agent Scott Boras this offseason, observers should take note that Cole previously shown a tendency to direct his own fortunes, reminds Tracy Ringolsby of Baseball America. When Cole was a first-round draftee of the Yankees back in 2008, it was Cole and his father, according to Ringolsby, who made the ultimate decision to pursue a collegiate career at UCLA. Cole’s first-round signing bonus that year was expected to land around $4MM, but the Cole family apparently believed that the intangible value of an education–to say nothing of another chance of entering the draft at a higher slot–outweighed the benefits of an early payday. Obviously, it doesn’t register as news to be reminded that agents are entrusted to work for the best interests of their clients, but it may be worth considering, given their working history, that the former Astros ace and his representatives likely have more in mind this offseason than pure dollar value alone.

Boras On Free Agency, Cole, Strasburg, Castellanos, JDM

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Major League Baseball’s previous couple offseasons didn’t necessarily favor the players. Some free agents sat on the open market far longer than expected, while others signed for less than expected or didn’t receive guaranteed contracts (or any deals) at all. Count the game’s most famous agent, Scott Boras, among those disgusted with the way free agency has gone in recent years, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today details. Speaking at this week’s GM meetings, the always colorful Boras lamented the lack of teams going all-out to win, saying that “the industry is in a competitive hibernation, and the fans are reacting to it,” referring to drops in attendance (as Nightengale notes, even the Nationals, Astros and Yankees drew fewer fans).

“We got a decline in attendance. We got owners charging more for generations that want to see the game, while we’re losing a generation of young people that are only interested in competition,” said Boras. “Clubs feel there are greater rewards for losing than winning. And there is nothing to drive them to win because they don’t think it’s smart.’’

Boras even took aim at current commissioner Rob Manfred, whom he criticized for finding the luxury tax and the present system as a whole “wonderful.” That system, in Boras’ estimation, is “corrupt,” as it fails to “properly place progressive values of players at all. It’s always regressive.”

Of course, Boras’ hope is that the system doesn’t penalize his newest free-agent clients. And he’s representing several prominent players now on the open market, including superstar right-handers Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg and outfielder Nicholas Castellanos. Boras is also the agent for Red Sox J.D. Martinez, who elected against opting out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract. The agent discussed those clients this week.

In regards to Cole, who looks likely to smash David Price’s record guarantee of $217MM for a pitcher, Boras stated (via Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer): “If this were major-league Christmas, we would be looking at 30 stockings that clearly wanted a lump of Cole. I think starting pitching has become back in vogue. It’s an aggressive market.”

Boras also represents outfielder Bryce Harper, who signed the largest deal ever for a free agent last winter at 13 years and $330MM. He opined that Cole and Strasburg are in line to have even more teams after them than Harper did last offseason, per Breen. And while there has been speculation that Cole, a Southern California native, wants to sign with a West Coast team, that’s not necessarily the case.

“I don’t think geography matters to any of these guys as much as the continuance of winning and being able to achieve their goal of getting that rare ring,” Boras said. “And I think in Gerrit’s case, when you’re that close, you’re looking at this process as one where I’ve got a box to check and I want to go out and put together the best effort to put me in that position to do that.”

You wouldn’t expect Boras to say anything else in this case, as doing so could have decreased his client’s earning power. But, regardless of whatever geographic preference Cole may or may not have, the East Coast-stationed Phillies will heavily push for him, Breen reports. They won the bidding for Harper a year ago, and though general manager Matt Klentak has suggested he’s averse to signing more free agents saddled with qualifying offers (as Harper was, and as Cole is), Cole would greatly help a Phillies rotation in dire need of front-end aid.

The Phillies are among the teams that may be in the market for “a lump of Cole,” but that wasn’t the last of Boras’ holiday-themed metaphors. In regards to Castellanos, he stated (per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic): “Old Saint Nick delivers once a year. Young Saint Nick delivers all season. So you’ve got a pretty good market for that kind of player.”

Whether “young Saint Nick” (Castellanos) really “delivers all season” is debatable. He’s clearly a flawed player, one who has been more good than great at the plate throughout his career and has clearly struggled defensively in the outfield and at third base. Nevertheless, as a 27-year-old who does bring an above-average bat to the table, expectations are that he will fare well in free agency. MLBTR has him landing the eighth-highest guarantee of anyone on the market – a four-year, $58MM deal. 

Martinez is something of a souped-up version of Castellanos, but he’s a half-decade older (32) and perhaps even a less viable defender. No doubt, Martinez would have had difficulty outdoing the money left on his pact had he opted out. Boras addressed Martinez’s decision, saying (via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe): “J.D. wanted assurance of competition at a high level and the fact that he played so well in Boston, we looked at it and with those two things in mind, we wanted to make sure that was the focus and for that reason he decided to opt in. The contract we structured allowed him choices after each season so it was something that, in this year at this time, we felt really that was the best decision.”

As Boras noted, Martinez will have another chance to opt out after next season. In the meantime, Boras is sure to focus his attention on several other clients who – despite his (arguably justifiable) distaste for the current system – could break the bank in the coming months.

7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down.  An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves.  Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.

Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….

There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment.  There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.

If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020.  Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension.  It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.

Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation.  (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent).  The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick.  Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.

A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact.  Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.

Phillies Notes: Moustakas, Cole, Girardi

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The latest on Philadelphia…

  • Free-agent third baseman Mike Moustakas “is very much on the Phillies’ radar,” Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia writes. The 31-year-old Moustakas would provide an affordable, short-term Band-Aid at third for the Phillies as they continue to wait for prospect Alec Bohm to take the reins at the position. And Moustakas would be a major upgrade over Maikel Franco, who, after disappointing yet again in 2019, now looks like a surefire non-tender or trade candidate.
  • Signing Moustakas to handle third for what would presumably be a reasonable sum would make it easier for the Phillies to dedicate a significant amount of cash to their uninspiring starting staff. Indeed, the likelihood is that the Phillies will use most of their spending room on pitching, according to Salisbury, who adds that the club will at least participate in the sweepstakes for the No. 1 starter available, Gerrit Cole. Signing Cole, a qualifying offer recipient, would cost the Phillies their second-highest draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool space (but more importantly an enormous sum of money). While general manager Matt Klentak seems averse to surrendering draft capital for a free agent, Salisbury contends he’d be willing to do it for the right player. That could prove to be Cole, who – like now-Phillie Bryce Harper a year ago – may be in position to sign the richest contract of anyone on the open market. While the Phillies gave Harper a 13-year contract last offseason, there’s at least some hesitance on their part to make an overly long commitment to a pitcher.  “Pitching is fragile and if you’re relying on free-agent starting pitching to build your organization, you go into that knowing you may be left disappointed at some point in that contract,” Klentak said. “Even the Phillies during their great run from ’07 to ‘11, some of the more notable pitchers (Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee) that they brought in were really good at the front end of those contracts and not healthy at the back end of those contracts.”
  • The Phillies’ roster remains a work in progress, but they already have their manager in place for 2020. The club hired former Marlins/Yankees skipper Joe Girardi a couple weeks ago, and doing so unsurprisingly cost Philly a decent chunk of money. The Phillies awarded the onetime World Series-winning skipper a three-year deal worth roughly $11MM in guaranteed money, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. That total falls just shy of the $12MM the Angels handed new manager Joe Maddon, Heyman notes.

Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.

Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs

If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.

Revenue Sharing Recipients:  Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.

For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).

—

While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).

With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

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MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,886 people entered the contest.  Below we’ve listed where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.  (Curious about the wisdom of the crowd last year?  Click here).

1.  Gerrit Cole – Angels (66.7%), Yankees (15.6%), Dodgers (4.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Padres (2.5%), Giants (1.0%)

2. Anthony Rendon – Nationals (60.1%), Rangers (16.4%), Dodgers (8.2%), Phillies (3.9%), Braves (2.3%), White Sox (1.8%), Angels (1.4%), Mets (1.1%), Cardinals (1.1%)

3.  Stephen Strasburg – Nationals (52.3%), Padres (28.4%), Yankees (5.6%), Angels (3.8%), Phillies (2.5%), Dodgers (2.1%)

4.  Zack Wheeler – Phillies (19.1%), Yankees (15.4%), Astros (10.4%), Angels (7.2%), Twins (6.8%), Padres (5.6%), Braves (5.3%), Mets (5.0%), Brewers (3.8%), White Sox (3.4%), Dodgers (2.8%), Cubs (2.4%), Rangers (2.4%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Nationals (1.7%), Red Sox (1.2%), Blue Jays (1.0%)

5.  Josh Donaldson – Braves (40.7%), Rangers (24.1%), Phillies (9.6%), Nationals (5.4%), Cardinals (4.9%), Brewers (3.5%), Angels (2.3%), Mets (1.8%), White Sox (1.3%)

6.  Madison Bumgarner – Braves (39.3%), Giants (11.4%), Twins (10.2%), Yankees (7.1%), Phillies (5.6%), Brewers (3.6%), Padres (3.5%), Angels (3.2%), Cardinals (2.8%), Rangers (2.5%), Astros (2.4%), Cubs (1.5%), Nationals (1.3%), White Sox (1.1%), Dodgers (1.1%)

7.  Yasmani Grandal – Reds (28.9%), Brewers (18.1%), Braves (7.3%), Mets (6.9%), Angels (6.4%), Astros (6.2%), White Sox (5.6%), Rangers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Rays (1.6%), Dodgers (1.5%), Cubs (1.4%), Red Sox (1.2%), Rockies (1.1%), Padres (1.0%)

8.  Nicholas Castellanos – White Sox (30.7%), Cubs (23.8%), Indians (6.6%), Giants (4.4%), Rangers (4.3%), Marlins (3.3%), Angels (2.8%), Cardinals (2.7%), Reds (2.2%), Rays (2.1%), Diamondbacks (1.9%), Blue Jays (1.7%), Brewers (1.4%), Mets (1.4%), Twins (1.3%), Phillies (1.2%), Braves (1.2%), Padres (1.1%)

9.  Hyun-Jin Ryu – Dodgers (46.5%), Rangers (8.7%), Angels (6.2%), Yankees (5.8%), Twins (4.5%), Padres (3.9%), Phillies (3.7%), Mariners (2.8%), Brewers (2.6%), Giants (2.5%), Astros (1.8%), Cubs (1.6%), Braves (1.4%), Cardinals (1.1%)

10.  Jake Odorizzi – Twins (43.5%), Brewers (6.2%), Phillies (5.3%), Astros (3.9%), Yankees (3.4%), Angels (3.4%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.1%), Rangers (3.0%), Cubs (2.7%), Padres (2.5%), Blue Jays (2.2%), Mets (2.1%), Braves (1.8%), Nationals (1.6%), Giants (1.6%), Rays (1.5%), Athletics (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%), Dodgers (1.1%), Red Sox (1.1%)

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

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