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Gerrit Cole

AL Notes: Cole, Edwin

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In less than three hours, Astros ace Gerrit Cole will take the field at Yankee Stadium in the hopes of securing his team a 2-1 lead over New York in the ALCS. Judging from quotes made to Scott Miller of Bleacher Report, his teammates are likely to be feeling mighty confident when Cole toes the rubber. “When you have Gerrit Cole on the mound, we win,” Houston manager AJ Hinch told Miller. “We have. We’ve kind of proven that.” Not wrong. Cole, 29, hasn’t lost a decision since May 22 (a date which preceded the Stanley Cup Finals, for reference) and is coming off a Divisional Series performance that saw him strike out 25 of the 54 Rays batters he faced. His success has been so tremendous that even his fellow Astros have begun to muse on just how much money the UCLA product might be in line to receive in free agency this winter. “I think everybody’s looking at that across baseball,” said outfielder Josh Reddick. “Harper money? Machado money? It’s going to be interesting.”

As Fangraphs’ Jay Jaffe points out, only four hurlers–Rick Sutcliffe, Mark Davis, Greg Maddux, and Roger Clemens–have earned a Cy Young award in the season preceding their free agency. Cole is widely expected to become the fifth.

  • The Blue Jays may be headed for brighter days next year, now that youngsters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, and Bo Bichette have arrived on the scene. Could veteran–and franchise icon–Edwin Encarnacion be a steadying presence for that young nucleus in 2020? Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic takes a long look at Encarnacion’s fit as a potential Toronto addition, opining that the hulking slugger could be a more-than-viable replacement for the likely-to-depart Justin Smoak. Encarnacion’s steady power (104 home runs since 2017) and on-base skills (13.0% walk rate in same time frame) would certainly help boost Toronto’s young lineup, although, as McGrath notes, GM Ross Atkins previously said the club might prioritize a first base addition that “can play other positions as well“. Encarnacion, who will be 37 at the start of spring training, has a $20MM club option with New York for 2020, although he figures to have his $5MM buyout exercised.

Comparing Gerrit Cole To The $200MM Pitchers

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Astros right-hander and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole just mowed down the Rays for the second time in the teams’ LDS matchup. Thanks in large part to the sheer brilliance he displayed in the second and fifth games of the series, the Astros have moved on in the postseason and are one step from advancing to the World Series. No matter how the year ends for the Astros, though, Cole’s in for a prosperous few months as arguably the preeminent soon-to-be free agent in baseball.

Cole, who just turned 29 a month ago, looks likely to head into the winter with a realistic chance at securing a $200MM-plus contract. As noted earlier this week, just four other hurlers (David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke) have reached that milestone to this point. But how does Cole compare to each member of that group when they signed their deals? Let’s stack up Cole against the younger versions of those starters in several key categories…

  • Age when their contracts took effect: Price: 30; Kershaw: 26; Scherzer: 31; Greinke: 32
  • Career average fastball velocity – Cole: 96.1 mph; Price: 94.2; Kershaw 93.2; Scherzer: 93.4; Greinke: 92.3
  • Career ERA/FIP – Cole: 3.22/3.06; Price: 3.10/3.19; Kershaw: 2.61/2.88; Scherzer: 3.60/3.38; Greinke: 3.34/3.32
  • Career strikeout percentage – Cole: 27.6; Price: 23.4; Kershaw: 25.4; Scherzer: 25.7; Greinke: 21.6
  • Career walk percentage – Cole: 6.5; Price: 6.4; Kershaw: 8.3; Scherzer: 7.5; Greinke: 6.0
  • Career groundball percentage – Cole: 44.7; Price: 44.3; Kershaw: 43.9; Scherzer: 38.7; Greinke: 43.8
  • Career hard-contact percentage – Cole: 30.1; Price: 26.7; Kershaw: 24.4; Scherzer: 28.3; Greinke: 27.9

While the above numbers don’t tell the entire story, it’s inarguable that they carry significant importance when evaluating the usefulness of a pitcher. And there’s no doubt they make it clear that Cole’s career has compared quite favorably to all members of the $200MM class when they received their exorbitant paydays.

Adding to Cole’s appeal, he’ll journey to free agency as hands down the No. 1 starter on the market – someone who’s fresh off back-to-back dominant seasons, a third straight 200-inning campaign and perhaps a heroic playoff run. With all of those factors in mind, it would be perfectly reasonable for Cole’s agent, Scott Boras, to try to secure a contract in a record range for his client. Price ($217MM over seven years), Kershaw (7/$215MM), Scherzer (7/$210MM) and Greinke (6/$206.5MM) continue to lead the way for now, but they may have company soon.

Cole Vs. Rendon: Who Will Sign The Bigger Contract?

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A year ago at this time, the baseball world was gearing up to see outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado reach free agency. They represented a pair of rare 26-year-old franchise players who were on the cusp of hitting the open market, and there was little doubt they’d end up with a couple of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. While the two wound up sitting on the market for longer than some may have expected, they ultimately did score the largest deals ever awarded in free agency before the offseason concluded. Harper left the Nationals for the Phillies’ 13-year, $330MM offer, while Machado waved goodbye to the Dodgers after a short stay in LA and signed with the Padres for 10 years and $300MM.

It wasn’t surprising that Harper and Machado reeled in $300MM-plus guarantees last winter, whereas there’s little chance of a free agent approaching that figure this offseason. That’s not a knock on the absolute best players in the upcoming class, though, as Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole and Nationals third baseman/ex-Harper teammate Anthony Rendon do have cases to collect massive paydays. In fact, both players – a pair of Scott Boras clients – have strong arguments to reach or exceed $200MM in guarantees on their forthcoming contracts.

Cole, who turned 29 last month, could not only win the AL Cy Young after putting up a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 326 strikeouts in 212 regular-season 1/3 innings, but the ace workhorse may also aid his cause with an epic playoff run. Cole looked to be setting himself up for a postseason in his start this past Saturday. He ran roughshod over the Rays in 7 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out 15 hitters, issuing one walk and allowing four hits during a 3-1 victory.

Regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes for Cole, Boras will likely try to get his client a pact in the vicinity of the all-time record for a pitcher. That honor has belonged to Red Sox lefty David Price since December 2015, when he inked a seven-year, $217MM contract as a free agent. Nationals righty Max Scherzer, another Boras client, isn’t far behind on the seven-year, $210MM deal he scored via the open market the winter before Price landed his accord.

Indications are that Rendon, who’s also 29, has already turned down money in the Price/Scherzer neighborhood in advance of his much-anticipated foray into free agency. Rendon spurned a seven-year, $210MM-$215MM offer (with deferrals) from Washington, perhaps in hopes of signing a contract that’s closer to the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado received before this season. While Rendon, who finally earned his first All-Star nod this year, is neither as decorated nor as young as the four-time All-Star Arenado (28), there’s a legitimate case he’s the superior player.

Dating back to 2017, which is admittedly an arbitrary cutoff point, Rendon ranks fourth among position players in fWAR (19.9; Arenado’s ninth with 17.4), trailing only MVP winners Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. And Rendon seems likely to garner serious consideration for this year’s NL MVP honors, having slashed a career-best .319/.412/.598 with personal highs in home runs (34) and fWAR (7.0) across 646 regular-season plate appearances.

It may be a long shot, but we could see Cole and Rendon square off against one another if in the Fall Classic in the next few weeks. No matter how the season ends for their teams, though, which of the two stars do you expect to emerge from the winter with the bigger contract?

(Poll link for app users)

AL Notes: Gerrit Cole, Gardner, Didi

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Earlier in the week, Astros pitcher Gerrit Cole was the subject of public discussion when owner Jim Crane made comments regarding the team’s projected inability to re-sign the starter this offseason. On Saturday evening, Cole made a statement all his own.

While it would be advantageous for a site with the phrase “trade rumors” in its header to find a transactional tilt to every story, the lead-in to tonight’s closing post is mainly a breathless tribute to the individual performance submitted by Cole in tonight’s 3-1 win over the Rays. As noted by several reporters, the right-hander’s performance in Game 2 of the ALDS was historic on several levels: with 15 strikeouts across 7.2 innings, Cole became just the 7th pitcher to record 15-or-more K’s in a postseason game; Tampa offered 33 swings and misses on Cole offerings–the most in a postseason game in the pitch-tracking era; and in recording multiple career postseason games with more than 12 strikeouts, Cole joined an elite list that includes only himself, Bob Gibson, Jim Palmer, and Tom Seaver.

The 29-year-old former Bruin will enter the offseason as the top starting option on the open market; judging in part from early postseason results, his representatives at Boras Corp should have no trouble this winter in securing Cole a contract guarantee with a healthy amount of zeroes attached to its end.

More from around the AL circuit…

  • The postseason odyssey of one Brett Gardner was profiled in a piece from Joel Sherman of the New York Post today, with Sherman describing the outfielder’s rise from a scrappy pinch runner on the 2009 Yankees championship team to the club’s #3 hitter in tonight’s lineup against the Twins (link). Like Cole, Gardner will be a free agent in about a month’s time, as he plays out the end of a one-year/$7.5MM contract signed last offseason. It would be difficult, at this point, to imagine Gardner in anything other than pinstripes, but the Yanks will nonetheless have an interesting decision re: Gardner this winter. Aaron Hicks will, hopefully, have a healthier season in 2020, while outfielder Clint Frazier looms as a cheaper, organizational option for GM Brian Cashman at the corners–although Frazier would admittedly have a hard time replicating Gardner’s excellent baserunning (70.9 career BSR) or defensive skills (+5 DRS in 2019).
  • Given the number of open managerial seats around the game, this month has seen a fair share of debate surrounding what, exactly, a manager should be expected to offer in today’s analytically inclined climate. Manager of the Year candidate and Yankees skipper Aaron Boone, for one, might consider submitting “clairvoyance” as one qualification that every managerial candidate should be in possession of, as his own pre-game forecast directly presaged a historic home run for the previously slump-ridden shortstop Didi Gregorius. Before Gregorius launched a game-breaking, third-inning grand slam deep into the seats in tonight’s 8-2 victory over the Twins, Boone was resolute that a breakout for the Dutchman was just around the corner.
    “I still maintain that the best is yet to come from Didi,” Boone told James Wagner of The New York Times (link). “Sometimes it just takes one at-bat, one swing to kind of turn it, and I believe that’s what’s in there for Didi still.” Boone was speaking, of course, of the shortstop’s season-long stagnation at the plate, which included Gregorius’ worst postings since coming to the Bronx in 2015 (84 wRC+ this season). After the beginning of his season was delayed until June, Gregorius saw his numbers trend downward through the summer, culminating in a September output that included a .190 batting average. While the pending free agent is unlikely to command an eye-popping contract this offseason (in part due to his 2019 injury troubles), a healthy and productive postseason wouldn’t, at the least, hurt the 29-year-old’s chances of securing a multi-year guarantee. Not that his fellow free-market shortstops will offer stiff competition toward that goal: among a group that may include Freddy Galvis, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Jose Iglesias, Gregorius may represent the most appealing upgrade for clubs in need of SS help this winter.

Jim Crane: Astros “Not Sure Yet” About Pursuing Gerrit Cole

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Gerrit Cole will draw a lot of interest this winter as arguably the top available talent in this winter’s free agent market, though it isn’t yet clear if his current team will join in the hunt.  Astros owner Jim Crane told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle that the AL West champions “don’t know yet” if they will have the payroll space to afford what could very well be a $200MM+ contract for the right-hander’s services.

“We’ll see where we end up after the year. We may make a run at it. We’re not sure yet. We’re going to wait and see what else unfolds and who else is going to stay on the team,” Crane said.

The Astros’ ability to stay under the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold could very well be a factor, as Crane said that he would “prefer not to” exceed the number, “but we may win the World Series, so you never know.”  That last comment could be interpreted in a couple of different ways — a long postseason run would add extra revenue to the team’s coffers, and perhaps provide the extra funds necessary to splurge for Cole.  Or, Crane could be making a reference to the Astros’ competitive window, as winning a second championship in three years could spur the franchise to exceed their financial comfort zone in pursuit of becoming a mini-dynasty.

Houston extended Justin Verlander last spring and then acquired Zack Greinke at the trade deadline, leading to speculation that the Astros were already looking ahead to bolster their rotation for a post-Cole world.  Beyond those two veteran aces, however, there’s a lot of uncertainty in the 2020 Astros’ pitching mix.

With Wade Miley and Collin McHugh also scheduled for free agency and Aaron Sanchez uncertain to be tendered a contract in the wake of shoulder surgery, the Astros have breakout rookie Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr. returning from Tommy John surgery, Brad Peacock, and Framber Valdez all lined up as contenders for the final three rotation spots.  Top prospect Forrest Whitley is also tentatively expected to make his debut next season, despite a very rocky 2019 campaign.  Needless to say, returning Cole to the rotation would obviously be a huge boost, and would greatly aid the Astros in their search for another title.

As per Roster Resource, Houston’s luxury tax figure for 2020 sits just shy of $156.5MM, a number boosted by the recent extensions handed out to Verlander, Alex Bregman, and Ryan Pressly.  That figure will be further increased by big arbitration raises due to George Springer, Roberto Osuna, and Carlos Correa (among other arb-eligibles), leaving the Astros in the $200MM ballpark even before re-signing Cole.

It’s worth noting that the Astros have never exceeded the CBT threshold in their club history, and thus would be taxed at the first-timer rate of 20% of every dollar spent between the $208MM and $228MM figures.  The team also has some significant money coming off the books after the 2020 season, as Springer, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, and Josh Reddick are all free agents.  While one would figure Houston would look to re-sign at least some members of that group (Springer in particular), there is some room for maneuvering if the team only wanted to exceed the tax limit for one season.  If the Astros stayed under the secondary penalty limit and only had a $227MM luxury tax number in 2020, their tax bill would come to roughly $3.8MM — seemingly a pretty modest price to pay.

While the luxury tax has been around in some form since 1997, it has become an increasingly large factor in teams’ offseason spending in recent years, particularly since the current Collective Bargaining Agreement was finalized in the 2016-17 offseason.  Traditionally big-spending teams like the Yankees and Dodgers have taken pains to duck under the tax line, while the Red Sox are also planning to get under the $208MM mark next season, less than two years after winning a World Series while exceeding the top penalty area (at least $40MM over the threshold) to do so.

AL Notes: Cole, Astros, Voit, Jays, Twins, Tigers, Rays

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The Astros remain optimistic that right-hander Gerrit Cole will avoid a stint on the injured list, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com writes. Cole, who has been dealing with hamstring discomfort this week, played catch Friday and will do so again this weekend, manager A.J. Hinch said. Hinch added that the Astros are hopeful the AL Cy Young contender will return near the end of their upcoming series against Detroit, which runs from Monday to Thursday. Meanwhile, righty Brad Peacock could come off the IL as early as Sunday. Peacock had been in the Astros’ rotation before going down with shoulder discomfort June 28, but he’ll revert to his previous role as a reliever when he makes it back to the majors.

Here’s more from around the AL…

  • Yankees first baseman Luke Voit expects to start a Triple-A rehab assignment Thursday, per Jack Curry of the YES Network. Voit has been dealing with core issues since late June, which have forced him to the injured list multiple times and could’ve ended his season. Now, though, Voit “feels he’s in the clear,” Curry writes. He hasn’t suited up for the Yankees in almost three weeks, and they’ve turned to DJ LeMahieu and Mike Ford at first in the absences of Voit and fellow injured Bomber Edwin Encarnacion.
  • Blue Jays outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is hoping to return from the IL at the end of the month, Scott Mitchell of TSN reports. Gurriel went down Aug. 8 with a strained left quadriceps, cutting off a breakout campaign for the 25-year-old. With a .279/.331/.548 line and 19 home runs in 321 plate appearances, Gurriel has been one of several young Toronto hitters who look as if they’ll be long-term building blocks for the club.
  • Twins left-hander Ian Krol has received a 50-game suspension after his second positive test for a drug of abuse, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets. Krol last appeared in the majors a year ago with the Angels, though he only threw two innings for the club. He previously received far more MLB work with the Nationals, Tigers and Braves from 2013-17. The 28-year-old has spent this season in Triple-A ball, where he has struggled to a 5.67 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 46 innings between the top affiliates of the Twins and Reds.
  • The Tigers will reinstate righty Jordan Zimmermann from the IL on Saturday, the team announced. Zimmermann will end up missing two weeks with a right cervical spasm. The 33-year-old has missed time with injuries in each season since the Tigers awarded him an five-year, $110MM contract entering 2016. To make matters worse, the former Washington standout hasn’t been productive when healthy since he joined Detroit.
  • The Rays have turned infield prospect Jermaine Palacios into a two-way player – the fourth in their system – according to John Vittas, broadcaster for the High-A Charlotte Stone Crabs. The 23-year-old Palacios fired 95 to 96 mph fastballs during his debut on the mound, Vittas adds. Palacios joined the Rays in their Jake Odorizzi trade with Minnesota prior to last season. While Palacios boasted a decently regarded bat at the time of the deal, he hasn’t hit much since then, which likely played a role in the Rays’ decision to try him as a pitcher.

Injury Notes: Astros, Ray, Nimmo, Voit

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The hamstring injury that prompted the Astros to scratch Gerrit Cole from yesterday’s start isn’t immediately believed to be serious, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (Twitter link, with video, via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). That doesn’t necessarily preclude a trip to the injured list, but Hinch explained that Cole “doesn’t think it’s that serious.” He’ll nonetheless be tested further to ensure there’s no risk of a more substantial injury. Scratching Cole had a trickle-down effect on the pitching staff, though, as it forced Houston into a bullpen game in the second half of a Tuesday doubleheader against the White Sox. As such, deadline acquisition Joe Biagini was optioned to Triple-A in order to get a fresh arm, Cy Sneed, into the bullpen. Biagini’s trip to the minors seems likely to be brief and won’t impact his arbitration or free-agent timeline.

More on a few other noteworthy injury situations…

  • Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray exited his start in Colorado on Wednesday after two innings because of back spasms. Afterward, manager Torey Lovullo told Zach Buchanan of The Athletic and other reporters he hopes Ray won’t “need to miss much time” (subscription link). The club should have a better idea of Ray’s status after he undergoes an MRI on Thursday. With Arizona already looking like a playoff long shot (it’s 3 1/2 back of a wild-card spot), it can ill afford to lose Ray for any decent chunk of time. The 27-year-old is the No. 1 starter left in a rotation that has gone through significant changes this season. Ray was a trade candidate at last month’s deadline, but he stayed put while the team instead moved ace Zack Greinke, bringing in Mike Leake and Zac Gallen to help cover for his exit. Back in May, long before the deadline, the Diamondbacks saw emergent righty Luke Weaver hit the IL with arm troubles. Weaver still hasn’t come back. There is optimism Weaver will return this season, but he’ll likely finish the year as a reliever if he does.
  • Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo is within a week or ten days of launching a rehab stint, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). Of course, the most recent prior report had indicated Nimmo might already have been prepared for minor-league game action, and that obviously did not come to pass. The 26-year-old is dealing with a bulging disc in his back. While the club has thrived of late, a healthy Nimmo would be a notable roster upgrade. Injuries have been mounting for the Mets, who’ve now lost Robinson Cano and Jeff McNeil to the IL in the past couple weeks. McNeil, who was placed on the IL today due to a mild hamstring strain, may yet beat Nimmo back from the injured list, though.
  • Yankees first baseman Luke Voit could begin his own rehab assignment “next week,” he said Wednesday (via George A. King III of the New York Post). That’s encouraging news for a player who has dealt with core issues since June 29 and looked like a serious candidate for season-ending sports hernia surgery not long ago.

AL Health Notes: Cole, Indians, A’s, Rays, Tigers

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The Astros made right-handed ace Gerrit Cole a late scratch from his start against the White Sox on Tuesday because of right hamstring discomfort, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic was among those to report. The severity of the injury isn’t known, but it’s worth keeping an eye on considering Cole’s importance to the Astros and his status as the game’s best pending free agent. As of now, the 28-year-old workhorse is on pace for his third consecutive 200-inning season. He has given Houston 156 2/3 frames of 2.87 ERA/3.11 FIP ball with 12.98 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9 in 2019.

  • Indians righty Carlos Carrasco has been battling leukemia, which has kept him out of action since May 30, but he’s champing at the bit to return, Mandy Bell of MLB.com explains. Carrasco, who fielded grounders off the mound at Progressive Field on Tuesday, is hoping to throw to hitters Friday. Manager Terry Francona wasn’t prepared to state whether that’ll happen, saying: “That’s still to be determined. I mean, the idea that he wants to, I think is terrific. But there’s got to be some sign-off from the medical people. But the fact he feels he’s ready to do that is tremendous.” Meanwhile, fellow key righty Corey Kluber was effective over four innings during a rehab start at the Double-A level Tuesday, Bell tweets. Afterward, Kluber called it “the last big step” in his rehab (via SportsTime Ohio). The two-time Cy Young winner has been out since fracturing his right forearm May 1, but the Indians have nonetheless gone 72-47. With a half-game lead in the AL Central, they have the inside track on a fourth straight division title.
  • Athletics southpaw Sean Manaea enjoyed an encouraging rehab start with Triple-A Las Vegas on Tuesday, Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle details. Manaea, out since last September after undergoing shoulder surgery, fired 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball and totaled 10 strikeouts. He and fellow rehabbing lefty Jesus Luzardo seem that much closer to giving playoff-contending Oakland a couple much-needed pitching reinforcements. Luzardo, also out all season (because of shoulder and lat troubles), will start for Las Vegas on Thursday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com tweets.
  • Rays infielders Brandon Lowe and Joey Wendle are moving toward rehab assignments, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Lowe went to the IL on July 4 with a right shin contusion, while Wendle has been down since the end of last month with a wrist issue. The 25-year-old Lowe had been a serious candidate for the AL’s top rookie honors prior to his injury, as he slashed .276/.339/.523 with 16 home runs and 2.5 fWAR in 307 plate appearances.
  • Tigers lefty Blaine Hardy has undergone a season-ending platelet-rich plasma injection, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reports. Hardy amassed 44 1/3 innings out of the Tigers’ bullpen this season and recorded a 4.47 ERA/5.72 FIP with 5.89 K/9, 2.64 BB/9 and a 48.5 percent groundball rate.

Gerrit Cole Discusses Potential Trip To Free Agency

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Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole is on a collision course with an enormous payday in the next few months. Arguably the most valuable impending free agent in baseball, the three-time All-Star expressed excitement Tuesday in regards to his potential trip to the open market, per Mark Berman of Fox 26 (video links).

“I’m looking forward to it,” said Cole. “I know what my right is as a player. Once I get six years of service time, my right is to be able to say yes or no to a place I want to play. So I’m excited to be able to exercise that right.”

That may make it sound as if Cole is ready to exit the Astros, but that isn’t necessarily the case. Houston, according to Cole, “checks a lot of the boxes. I expect them to be there when push comes to shove. I wouldn’t mind playing there for a lot longer.”

The feeling’s likely mutual for the Astros, with whom Cole has been brilliant since they acquired him from the Pirates entering the 2018 campaign. While Cole had plenty of high moments as a Pirate, he endured multiple seasons in Pittsburgh in which he battled injuries and didn’t prevent runs at ace-level rates. The Houston version has been durable and elite, though.

Not only is the hard-throwing Cole on pace for his second straight 200-inning season with the Astros, but he has a realistic chance to surpass the 300-strikeout mark. Cole leads the majors with a stunning 13.11 K/9, has walked just 2.31 hitters per nine and has logged a 3.09 ERA/3.00 FIP across 116 2/3 innings. Overall as an Astro, he owns a 2.95 ERA/2.81 FIP with 12.66 K/9 and 2.67 BB/9 through 317 frames. His 9.4 fWAR dating back to 2018 paces all American League starters and ranks third in the game, trailing only supreme aces Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.

Scherzer’s a few offseasons removed from signing a seven-year, $210MM contract with the Nationals in free agency. Scott Boras, who also represents Cole, helped Scherzer secure that deal. Along with David Price and Zack Greinke, Scherzer is one of three pitchers to reel in $200MM-plus pacts to this point. The soon-to-be 29-year-old Cole, with Boras’ help, could angle to become the fourth by next season.

Extension Rumors: Cole, Verlander, Red Sox, Castellanos

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The Astros are currently discussing extensions with starters Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required), though a deal with either seems unlikely. Rosenthal notes that the Astros may not be keen on paying market price for a multi-year extension with Verlander when that deal would begin in his age-37 season. Cole, meanwhile, is a Scott Boras client and thus likelier to test the free-agent market. Boras’ most recent extension for a starting pitcher was Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, who (like Cole) was in his walk year when he signed a $175MM guarantee on a seven-year deal beginning in his age-28 season. Cole is in his age-28 season right now, so he’d be a year older than Strasburg at the time of a theoretical extension, but he’s also been more durable, reaching 200 innings in three of the past four seasons. Rosenthal makes a slightly less-aggressive comp than that, pointing out that Cole will reach free agency at the same age as Patrick Corbin and with better career stats. Corbin agreed to a six-year deal worth $140MM with the Nats this winter.

Since it’s officially “Extension Season” — as MLBTR’s Extension Tracker shows, there have been a virtually unprecedented 16 extension agreements during Spring Training — here’s more extension chatter from around the game…

  • Rob Bradford of WEEI spoke to J.D. Martinez about the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox at the end of the season. Martinez, who can opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his current deal, said there haven’t been any discussions about an extension or a restructuring of the contract to this point. Unlike last summer, however, he at least left open a slight window for in-season talks in his most recent interview with Bradford. Martinez has an opt-out after the third year of his contract as well, at which point there’d be two years and $38.75MM remaining on the deal.
  • Red Sox left fielder Andrew Benintendi was drafted five spot behind Alex Bregman and reached the Majors barely a week after the Astros’ third baseman, but Benintendi tells Bradford that his those similarities didn’t make him take particular note of Bregman’s $100MM extension. Rather, the 24-year-old Benintendi says it’s “fun to watch all these guys sign some deals” in a nod to the bevy of extensions throughout MLB. Benintendi and his reps have not discussed an extension with the Sox this winter, though he tells Bradford that he would “definitely” listen if the Sox initiated talks.
  • MLB Network’s Jon Heyman spoke to Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski about the team’s current slate of extension candidates (all links to Twitter). While it’s common for players to place Opening Day deadlines on extension talks, Dombrowski somewhat unusually took a similar stance. “We’re focused on winning this year,” he said. “…Unless something unexpected happens, we’re not going to do anything once the season starts.” Heyman notes that Xander Bogaerts, specifically, has stated an aversion to in-season negotiating. Regarding Martinez, Dombrowski merely stated that the Sox are “hopeful” he won’t opt out of his contract.
  • The Tigers “haven’t engaged in any kind of [extension] conversations” with Nicholas Castellanos this spring, GM Al Avila told MLB.com’s Jason Beck yesterday. There’s been no formal offer or even any formal discussions on the matter with Castellanos’ agent, according to Avila, though he said the possibility of a deal is “obviously… in our minds.” Castellanos has expressed a desire to remain in Detroit on a long-term deal, though the rebuilding Tigers will undoubtedly view him as a possible trade asset this summer as well. If the two sides can eventually find a common ground in terms of price, however, Avila said he wouldn’t rule out an in-season extension. “He hasn’t said anything to the contrary,” Avila said of Castellanos being willing to negotiate beyond Opening Day. “I think he would be open to it.”
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