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Guardians Reinstate Gavin Williams From 60-Day IL, Option Triston McKenzie

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The Guardians announced that Gavin Williams has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list, after the right-hander has been sidelined the entire season due to elbow discomfort.  Williams will take the rotation spot of fellow righty Triston McKenzie, who has been optioned to Triple-A Columbus.  To open a spot for Williams on the 40-man roster, Cleveland designated right-hander Darren McCaughan for assignment.

While Cleveland has long been known for its starting pitching, the rotation has been a surprising weak link for the first-place Guardians, and McKenzie’s 5.11 ERA in 75 2/3 innings has contributed to those struggles.  McKenzie leads the majors in both home runs (19) and walks (49), and his -1.0 fWAR is the lowest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 70 innings pitched.  Logan Allen is second on that list with -0.5 fWAR and Carlos Carrasco is sixth with 0.1 fWAR, speaking to the Guards’ overall rotation issues.

Some rust was to be expected for McKenzie, considering that he missed virtually all of the 2023 season recovering from a right teres major strain and then a right UCL sprain.  However, his struggles have been so severe that a stint in Triple-A might be the best course for McKenzie to get some confidence back, and to work out the control issues that weren’t nearly this severe during his 2020-22 seasons.  The former top-100 prospect looked like quite a solid pitcher in those first big years in the Show, and since he is only 26 and still under arbitration control through 2026, the Guardians would naturally love to see McKenzie get his career back on track.

It isn’t exactly a silver lining, but Williams’ own situation gave the Guardians some leeway in optioning McKenzie, as Williams represents a ready-made rotation replacement.  Since his rehab assignment began on May 29, the Guards had to activate Williams this weekend, as his 30-day rehab window was about to expire.  After his elbow began giving him problems during Spring Training, Williams began the season on the IL and has slowly been ramping up his workload over six minor league outings.

Selected 23rd overall in the 2021 draft, Williams delivered quickly on his top prospect status with an impressive rookie season in 2023.  The right-hander posted a 3.29 ERA over 82 innings, though a 4.61 SIERA reflected some middling secondary metrics for Williams, as well as the benefits of a .270 BABIP and 78.3% strand rate.

If Williams can deliver something even midway between his 2023 ERA and SIERA in his return to the mound, the Guardians would probably be satisfied, given both their need for any kind of reliable pitching and the bigger-picture acknowledgement that Williams is still early in his pro career.  Since Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively have been the only reliable members of Cleveland’s rotation, the Guards would love to get at least decent work from Williams as a third starter option before seeing if any pitching help is needed at the trade deadline.

McCaughan has already allowed five home runs over 10 2/3 combined innings with the Guardians and Marlins this season, inflating his ERA to 1181.  Beyond those extreme problems at keeping the ball in the park, McCaughan also has nine walks and only three strikeouts, making him the odd man out of the Guards’ 40-man roster.  A longtime member of the Mariners organization who made his MLB debut in Seattle in 2021, McCaughan was acquired by Miami in a cash considerations deal with the Mariners in February, and the Guardians then picked him up in a similar trade in May.

It’s possible McCaughan could find himself on the move again via trade or waiver claim, though the extent of his struggles might give any interested teams a second thought.  The 28-year-old righty has a 5.50 ERA and 10 homers allowed over 54 Triple-A innings as well this season, and while McCaughan’s past Triple-A track record has somewhat comparable bottom-line stats, those numbers were at least posted when pitching with Seattle’s Triple-A affiliate in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Guardians Notes: Kwan, DeLauter, Williams

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Guardians fans received a positive update today regarding the status of injured outfielder Steven Kwan. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com) this morning that the club is hoping that Kwan can begin a rehab assignment within the next seven to ten days. The 26-year-old was placed on the 10-day IL earlier this month due to what was described as an “acute” hamstring strain and was initially expected to miss around a month of action.

Now two weeks out from his initial diagnosis, it appears that Kwan remains on pace to meet that timeline. It’s an encouraging update, particularly given the fact that manager Steven Vogt indicated to reporters (per the Associated Press) on Friday that while Kwan had resumed baseball activities and was running “relatively pain-free,” there was still no clear timetable for his return to the majors. Today’s addendum provides a bit more clarity regarding the status of the third-year outfielder.

Cleveland figures to be particularly antsy for Kwan to return to action given the incredible start he was off to at the time of his injury. In 145 trips to the plate with the Guardians this season, Kwan has slashed an incredible .353/.407/.496 with three home runs, six doubles, and two triples. That home run total is particularly impressive given the fact that Kwan’s career high homer total is just six, a figure he achieved over the course of 638 plate appearances during his rookie season. Estevan Florial has handled left field in Kwan’s absence but is hitting a mediocre .189/.263/.400 in 32 games this season.

Kwan isn’t the only outfielder making progress in his recovery from injury, as Bell also notes that top outfield prospect Chase DeLauter has resumed baseball activities. The club’s first-round pick in the 2022 draft, DeLauter entered the 2024 season as a consensus top-30 prospect in the game but suffered a fractured fifth metatarsal in his left foot earlier this month. There was some initial concern at the time of the injury that surgery would be required, as it was when DeLauter previously suffered a fractured foot during the 2022-23 offseason.

Fortunately, that did not come to pass and it appears that DeLauter is already making excellent progress towards a return to action as Bell notes that he’s currently hitting on the field, though he hasn’t yet begun a running progression. DeLauter was off to a tough start at Double-A this year prior to this injury, having slashed just .197/.296/.295 in 16 games. Even so, it’s not hard to imagine the youngster taking off and reaching Triple-A before the end of the year in the event that he hits the ground running upon his return to action, a timeline that could potentially put him on the big league radar for 2025 or perhaps even a September call-up.

Also making progress towards a return is right-hander Gavin Williams, who according to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker threw a 50-pitch bullpen session on Wednesday and was scheduled to throw again on Friday. The 24-year-old has not yet pitched in the majors this season after opening the season on the 60-day IL due to discomfort in his right elbow, but appears to be making good progress in his rehab and could be an option for Cleveland sometime next month. Williams’s return would provide a major boost to the Guardians, who have seen both Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco struggle during their time in the rotation this year. Williams, meanwhile, pitched to a sterling 3.29 ERA with a 4.09 FIP in sixteen starts for the club during his rookie season last year.

Guardians Acquire Darren McCaughan From Marlins

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The Guardians announced today that they have acquired right-hander Darren McCaughan from the Marlins. The latter club, who designated the righty for assignment on the weekend, receive cash considerations in return. The Guards optioned McCaughan to Triple-A Columbus and transferred Gavin Williams to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot.

McCaughan, 28, spent his entire career with the Mariners until he was designated for assignment in February. He was traded to the Marlins for cash and was sent to Triple-A Jacksonville to start the year. He made five starts there with poor results, posting a 6.14 earned run average despite average-ish peripherals. He struck out 22.2% of batters faced with an 8.1% walk rate, but with a .338 batting average on balls in play and 52.8% strand rate.

The Marlins called him up to the big leagues last week. In Saturday’s game against Oakland, Trevor Rogers allowed eight earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. McCaughan came in for some long relief, throwing 4 2/3 but also allowing eight earned runs on the way to a 20-4 loss. McCaughan was designated for assignment the next day.

The Guardians are undoubtedly interested in McCaughan based on his work in previous seasons. From 2021 to 2023, he tossed 408 2/3 innings for Triple-A Tacoma, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He had a 4.98 ERA in that time as well as a 21.4% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate.

Cleveland has less pitching depth than other recent seasons. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery while Williams has been on the IL all year due to elbow soreness. Their rotation currently consists of three youngsters in Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee, as well as two veterans in Carlos Carrasco and Ben Lively. McKenzie hardly pitched last year due to a sprain of his UCL and is currently getting by with diminished stuff. Allen has a 6.41 ERA on the year, Bibee 4.91 and Carrasco 5.67. Lively is down at 2.08 in only four starts. He was at 5.38 last year with the Reds, his first MLB action since 2019.

Despite the lackluster results from the rotation, the club is 24-13 and leading the American League Central. To help keep things afloat, they have been actively trying to bolster the starting depth. They acquired Zak Kent from the Rangers on Opening Day and later grabbed Wes Parsons from the Blue Jays, sending international bonus pool space away in both cases. With the acquisition of McCaughan, they have now added three optionable starters to their system in the past two months.

As for Williams, as mentioned, he’s been on the injured list all season due to elbow soreness. This transfer is backdated to his initial IL placement, meaning he’s ineligible return until late May. He recently resumed a throwing program but will need to build up a full starter’s workload and isn’t going to be ready in the next month or so regardless.

Gavin Williams Resumes Throwing Program

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Guardians starter Gavin Williams has resumed a throwing program after he was reevaluated on Wednesday, manager Stephen Vogt told reporters (X link via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Williams came out of today’s throwing session without pain.

It’s an encouraging development after last week’s ominous news that Williams was being shut down after experiencing discomfort in his elbow. The second-year righty has been on the injured list all season after battling elbow soreness in Spring Training. He received an anti-inflammation injection last week that seemingly addressed whatever was ailing him.

The Guardians will certainly proceed with caution as Williams builds arm strength. Cleveland hasn’t released a specific timeline when he might be ready to embark on a rehab assignment. Clearly, getting into a throwing routine is a meaningful step towards working back to game action.

Williams is arguably the best of Cleveland’s trio of highly-touted pitchers who debuted last year. The 23rd overall pick in the 2021 draft, he quickly developed into one of the game’s most talented pitching prospects. The Guards promoted Williams in June. In his first 18 MLB starts, he turned in a 3.29 ERA over 82 innings. The East Carolina product fanned a solid 23.5% of opponents while picking up whiffs on more than 12% of his pitches. Despite a 10.7% walk rate that’s higher than ideal, it was a strong debut showing. Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen also turned in sub-4.00 ERA performances in their first seasons.

Cleveland’s rotation nevertheless feels a bit more tenuous than it has in prior years. The Guardians lost Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery after two starts. Triston McKenzie has subpar strikeout and walk rates in his return from last season’s UCL sprain. Carlos Carrasco, who made the Opening Day roster after signing a minor league deal, has a 6.59 ERA through six starts. Allen has allowed seven homers and has an earned run average above 5.00 through his first seven appearances. Ben Lively has been excellent in three outings, but he went unclaimed on waivers as recently as last offseason.

Reinstalling Williams alongside Bibee at the top of the staff would be a major boost. The Guardians have thrived despite the rotation questions, thanks in large part to one of MLB’s best bullpens. They’re tied with the Orioles for the American League’s best record at 20-11. Cleveland leads an AL Central that surprisingly has four teams sitting at least four games above .500.

Gavin Williams Shut Down After Experiencing Setback

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Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams, who’s been out all season due to inflammation in his right elbow, experienced continued discomfort after his recent throwing session against live hitters, tweets Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’ll receive an injection and be shut down for the next seven days before being reevaluated. The team is hopeful that’ll prove sufficient, but it’s an ominous development for the prized young right-hander.

Williams, 24, was Cleveland’s first-round pick in 2021 and debuted in 2023 with considerable fanfare. He entered last season ranked among the sport’s top 50 prospects — as high as No. 20 on Baseball America’s top 100 list — and showed why with an outstanding debut effort. In his first 82 MLB frames, spread across 16 starts, the East Carolina University product posted a strong 3.29 earned run average with a solid 23.5% strikeout rate. Williams’ 10.7% walk rate was higher than he and the team would’ve preferred, but walks weren’t an issue for him during the 2022 season in the lower minors.

Between Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen, the Guardians ushered in the next core of their rotation in one fell swoop last season. All three top-100 prospects hit the ground running, albeit to varying extents. But the outlook in Cleveland has changed considerably this season. Shane Bieber’s season is already over after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Triston McKenzie, whom doctors recommended for rest and rehab when he incurred a ligament injury of his own late last year, has seen a sharp velocity dip and hasn’t looked like himself at all. Bibee and Allen have both struggled thus far.

The Guardians have been banking on a healthy Williams returning to the fold to help fill out a rotation that currently includes Bibee, Allen, McKenzie, journeyman Ben Lively and old friend Carlos Carrasco, who’s back on a reunion tour after signing a minor league deal. Prior to today’s news, it looked as though Williams might be able to head out on a rehab assignment in the near future and rejoin the rotation in the middle of next month. That timeline has now been torn up and will hinge on how his elbow responds to the injection.

Cleveland develops pitching better than perhaps any organization in the game, but their ability to do so is being tested at a high level early this season. The Guards can ill afford another long-term absence for one of their key rotation members. Beyond injuries to Bieber and Williams and the previously mentioned struggles of the incumbent arms (McKenzie in particular), prospect Daniel Espino has already been lost for the season due to shoulder surgery — his second in as many years. Fellow prospect Joey Cantillo hasn’t pitched yet this season, as the left-hander suffered a torn hamstring that’ll sideline him for a total of eight to ten weeks. Right-hander Xzavion Curry is an option in Triple-A, but he profiles as a swingman or fifth starter.

The Guards have already added some depth with early acquisitions of righty Zak Kent from the Rangers, Wes Parsons from the Blue Jays and Pedro Avila from the Padres. Any of the bunch could be tasked with stepping into the rotation. However, if the Guards hope to continue at the torrid pace with which they’ve started the season (17-6, +55 run differential), they’ll need to get their current arms healthy and on-track or perhaps eventually look outside the organization.

Trevor Stephan, Daniel Espino Require Surgery; Gavin Williams To Open Season On IL

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Guardians setup man Trevor Stephan will be undergoing a UCL reconstruction procedure (i.e. Tommy John surgery) within the next seven to 14 days, the team announced. Cleveland had shut Stephan down for three weeks in late February, but the discomfort in his arm persisted and subsequent testing has revealed that his ulnar collateral ligament is “not providing adequate stability.”

There’s further discouraging news on righty Daniel Espino — formerly one of the top prospects in all of baseball. The 23-year-old righty, who missed the entire 2023 season due to a capsule tear that required shoulder surgery, underwent a second shoulder procedure yesterday — this one to repair new capsule damage as well as his rotator cuff. He’s expected to miss the entire 2024 season, though an exact timetable on his recovery isn’t yet known, per the team.

In addition to that pair of injuries, starting pitcher Gavin Williams will begin the season on the injured list, tweets Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’s been slowed by some discomfort in his right elbow this spring. A recent MRI came back clean, but he’ll go another four days before he resumes his throwing program and will need to build back up from there. By that point, he’ll be about two weeks removed from his last game action.

If that’s not enough bad news for Guards fans, Bell adds that lefty Sam Hentges is headed to have some swelling in his finger checked out. There’s no indication that’s a serious issue, but it’s yet another health situation for the team (and fans) to monitor for now.

The 28-year-old Stephan has proven to be one of the best Rule 5 selections by any team in recent memory. Taken out of the Yankees organization prior to the 2021 campaign, he’s logged 63 or more innings in each of his three seasons in Cleveland. Stephan owns six saves and 50 holds over that stretch, having climbed the ladder from low-leverage and mop-up settings to a prominent late-inning piece in each of the Guards’ past two seasons.

From 2022-23, Stephan tossed 132 1/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball with a stout 28% strikeout rate and better-than average walk and ground-ball rates of 7.8% and 44.6%, respectively. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.90) and SIERA (3.18) feel he’s been even better than his already sharp earned run average.

Stephan signed a four-year, $10MM contract extension covering the 2023-26 seasons last spring. That deal includes club options for both the 2027 and 2028 seasons as well. He’ll be paid $1.6MM this year as he rehabs throughout what would otherwise have been his first arbitration season. He’s guaranteed salaries of $2.3MM in 2025 and $3.5MM in 2026 before the team must decide between a $7.25MM club option of $1.25MM buyout for the 2027 season. If Cleveland picks that option up, they’ll have a $7.5MM option for the 2028 campaign as well. There’s no buyout on that second option.

With Stephan now ticketed for the 60-day injured list, the Guardians will lean on trade acquisition Scott Barlow as the primary setup man to All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase. Righties Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin will also be in the mix for leverage spots, as will Hentges, assuming his finger injury doesn’t prove to be something serious. It’s possible the Guardians could look outside the organization for some additional arms to join the fray, though that’d likely come via waivers or perhaps a DFA trade late in camp. The free agent market for bullpen arms has been largely picked over, and Cleveland clearly didn’t have much money to spend this winter, making it seem unlikely that any additional salary will be added.

The news on Williams also carries immediate impact for Cleveland. While there’s no indication he’s dealing with a significant injury or facing a long-term absence, it seems he’ll miss at least a couple starts to begin the year. The 24-year-old ranked among MLB’s top pitching prospects prior to making his debut in 2023, and he lived up to that billing with 82 innings of 3.29 ERA ball during a sharp rookie campaign.

Williams’ 23.5% strikeout rate was narrowly above average, while his 10.7% walk rate is a bit inflated and could stand to improve a couple ticks. That shaky command prompted metrics like FIP (4.05) and SIERA (4.61) to take a more bearish outlook. Still, Williams throws hard, misses bats at average or better levels and limited hard contact rather nicely as well (88 mph average exit velocity, 38.6% hard-hit rate). There’s plenty to like about his outlook moving forward, and his presence alongside fellow sophomores Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen has the makings of the next wave of impressive homegrown talent from Cleveland’s unrivaled pitching development pipeline.

Espino, 23, once shined brightest among that incredible stock of young pitchers in the Cleveland system, but injuries have completely derailed his trajectory. Beyond what will now be a two-year absence from the mound due to multiple shoulder surgeries, Espino was also limited to just 18 innings in 2022. That year included a monthslong stay on the injured list due to tendinitis in his knee, as well as a second absence surrounding shoulder pain that has now clearly spiraled into an overwhelmingly problematic issue. Prior to the injury deluge, Espino dazzled scouts with a triple-digit fastball, plus or better slider and two other pitches — changeup, curveball — that projected to be at least average offerings.

On the one hand, Espino has youth on his side. On the other, consecutive missed seasons due to shoulder surgeries is a massive roadblock for any pitcher to overcome. His last procedure came with a timetable of 12 to 14 months. A similar or even lengthier timetable could push him deeper into the 2025 season. By that point, Espino will have thrown just 18 innings over a four-year period. The obvious hope is that he can put all these injuries behind him and eventually reach the majors, even if in a shorter relief role to help mitigate some workload concerns, but injury troubles of this magnitude are hard to overcome.

As for Hentges, he might not be a household name but he’s a credit to Cleveland’s pitching development himself. The 2014 fourth-rounder was hit hard as a starter in his debut campaign back in ’21 but has since emerged as one of the team’s top relievers. From 2022-23, he’s pitched 114 1/3 innings with an excellent 2.91 ERA, a very strong 27.4% strikeout rate, a better-than-average 7.9% walk rate and a sensational 60.1% grounder rate.

MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: Exciting Youth Movements in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, Bad Central Divisions and the Dodgers Want Pitching

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • the Pirates promote Henry Davis (1:20)
  • the scorching-hot Reds designate Wil Myers for assignment (7:35)
  • Guardians promote Gavin Williams (10:40)
  • White Sox want to sell rental pieces only (16:20)
  • Dodgers need pitching (19:15)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Do you think the Cubs will deal Christopher Morel at the deadline? (22:45)
  • What are the chances the Diamondbacks promote Jordan Lawlar later this season? (25:50)
  • If Rangers make a blockbuster trade who would you think it would be? Obviously bullpen is a need but what is something blockbuster worthy? (29:45)

Check out our past episodes!

Guardians Designate Daniel Norris For Assignment

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The Guardians have designated left-hander Daniel Norris for assignment, according to their transactions tracker at MLB.com. His roster spot will go to pitching prospect Gavin Williams, whose promotion was reported yesterday.

Norris, 30, was selected to the club’s roster just four days ago. He made one scoreless appearance of two innings but has now quickly lost his roster spot to make way for Williams. Prior to having his contract selected, he was pitching in Triple-A after signing a minor league deal with the Guards in March. He was serving as a swingman at that level, logging 37 2/3 innings over 14 appearances, nine of those being starts. He had a 6.93 ERA in that time, striking out 17.6% of opponents while walking 13.2%.

The lefty once seemed like a capable big league starter, finding himself on top 100 prospect lists while with the Blue Jays. He was traded to the Tigers as part of the 2015 deal that sent David Price to Toronto and he posted an ERA of 3.38 for the Tigers the next year. But injuries and underperformance gradually pushed him to the bullpen in subsequent seasons.

He’s shown flashes of promise at times but various clubs have tried to unlock it without much success. He’s bounced to the Brewers, Cubs, back to the Tigers, then the Reds and Guardians in recent seasons. But those opportunities have resulted in a 5.58 ERA dating back to the start of the 2021 season. He struck out 24.5% of batters in that time but walked 12.3%.

The Guards will now have a week to trade Norris or pass him through waivers. He has way more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency in the event that he clears waivers, so it’s possible he’ll be back on the open market in the coming days.

Guardians To Promote Gavin Williams

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The Guardians are going to promote pitching prospect Gavin Williams, reports Guardians Prospective on Twitter. The right-hander will start on Wednesday, making his major league debut. He’s not yet on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move or moves will be required.

Williams, 23, was the club’s first-round pick in 2021, getting selected 23rd overall. He didn’t make his professional debut until the following season, but it was well worth the wait. He split last year between High-A and Double-A, tossing 115 innings over 25 starts with a 1.96 ERA. He struck out 33.1% of batters faced while walking 8.9%.

That strong showing, combined with his pre-draft work at East Carolina University, helped him shoot up prospect rankings this offseason. Coming into 2023, he was ranked the #20 prospect in the league at Baseball America, #81 at FanGraphs, #33 at ESPN and got the #42 slot from Keith Law of The Athletic. He also was ranked 42nd by MLB Pipeline, though he’s since moved up to #16.

Here in 2023, he’s done little slowing down. He began the year back at Double-A but posted an ERA of 0.63 in three starts and was quickly bumped up. Through nine outings at Triple-A, he has a 2.93 ERA in 46 innings, striking out 33.3% of batters faced. His 11.5% walk rate at that level is a bit high, but there’s little denying the overall success. Reports on Williams tend to highlight his triple-digit fastball while also giving praise to his curveball and slider. He also has a changeup, though that is generally seen as his fourth-best offering.

The Guardians have turned to their young pitching prospects several times this year due to various factors. Zach Plesac struggled with a 7.59 ERA and got himself outrighted off the roster. Both of Peyton Battenfield and Cal Quantrill saw their ERA climb above 5.00 before they each landed on the injured list, where they currently remain. Aaron Civale is healthy now but has only been able to make five starts thus far due to a strained oblique. Triston McKenzie was shut down in March with a teres major strain and came back last week, though he’s now on the IL again with an elbow sprain that involves his UCL and seems serious.

Amid all of that, the club has already called upon top 100 pitching prospects Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen to join the rotation alongside Civale and Shane Bieber. Bibee has a 4.05 ERA and Allen is at 3.95 through 10 starts for each. The club already had a reputation for seemingly finding excellent pitchers in the couch cushions but they continue to impress and will now be promoting their third rotation prospect of the year. That’s despite another pitching prospect, Daniel Espino, undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery earlier this year.

The club has a record of just 33-38 but that’s good enough for second place in the weak American League Central. With no teams in the division able to even stay above .500, the Guards are just two games back of the 36-37 Twins. Despite a tepid offense, perhaps their never-ending supply of young pitching can keep them in the mix the rest of the way.

As for the ever-present service time question with top prospects, Williams can only earn 103 days this year even if he stays up for the rest of the year. That won’t allow him to get to a full year in 2023 and will leave him shy of achieving Super Two status by the end of 2025. Since he was a top 100 guy coming into the season, he could theoretically earn a full year of service time by finishing in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting. However, that will be very hard to do since he’s already missed almost half the season.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

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Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

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