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Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

AL Notes: Astros, Blue Jays, Orioles

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Alex Bregman is preparing for a move to shortstop, should the Astros have a need, the third baseman told Michael Schwab on his podcast. Houston has not indicated a willingness to move Bregman, and in fact, GM James Click recently said that moving Bregman was not something they were considering. Still, it doesn’t hurt for Bregman to offer. We have seen a trend lately of third basemen moving up the defensive spectrum as players like Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw have seen time at second and Eugenio Suarez tried his hand at shortstop. These moves were hardly universal success stories, however, so it’s likely Bregman remains at the hot corner when the 2022 season opens.

In other rumblings from around the American League…

  • Like Bregman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was adamant last winter about his willingness to move up the defensive spectrum. Ultimately, Vladdy spent all of two innings at the hot corner in 2021. Recent rumors have again suggesting moving Vlad to third in order to accommodate a totally hypothetical Freddie Freeman signing, but that’s not something the Blue Jays have discussed with their young star, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. There would be other ways to accommodate a Freeman signing, but at least for now it seems their interest in Freeman was more due diligence than earnest sales pitch.
  • The Orioles signed five pitchers to minor league deals, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Bryan Bautista, 17, Raynel Duran, 18, Wilton Rondon, 19, Darwin Caballero, 21, and Noelin Cuevas, 19, will start the 2022 season in the Orioles’ organization. The Orioles continue to be one of the most pitching-needy organizations in the game, so while adding a handful of minor league free agents hardly qualifies as a game-changer, it’s a positive data point nonetheless. These five were all international free agents who will join the lowest level of Baltimore’s system, notes Kubatko.

Yankees, Blue Jays Among Teams With Interest In Freddie Freeman

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2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman is one of the top free agents on the market this winter, and he’s unsurprisingly drawing interest from a few of the game’s higher-spending organizations. The Yankees and Blue Jays are among the teams to have reached out to the five-time All-Star, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link).

Many around the industry expect Freeman will eventually re-sign with the Braves. The star first baseman has been a member of the organization for nearly a decade and a half, and it’d be a bitter pill for the fanbase to swallow if Freeman departs on the heels of Atlanta’s first World Series title since 1995. No deal has yet gotten done, though, with the Braves’ reluctance to offer a sixth guaranteed year reportedly the hold-up in talks so far. Heyman adds that Freeman had been seeking a guarantee in the $180MM range. Entering the offseason, MLBTR indeed projected a six-year, $180MM pact for the three-time Silver Slugger award winner.

It’s certainly not out of the question Freeman and the Braves will eventually bridge their gap. Heyman notes that some other organizations in pursuit are still skeptical about the possibility the 32-year-old leaves Atlanta. There’s no harm for clubs to reach out to Freeman’s representatives at Excel Sports Management in case the Braves aren’t willing to meet his ultimate ask, though.

Were Freeman to seriously entertain the possibility of leaving Atlanta, it stands to reason other clubs would get involved. Both Heyman and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic have floated the possibility of the Dodgers making a run at the Southern California native. Los Angeles has already lost Corey Seager and could see Chris Taylor also depart. Signing Freeman while bumping Max Muncy over from first to second base would go a long way towards replacing the offensive production they’ve lost this winter.

Broadly speaking, any big-market team could poke around the Freeman market. The Jays have no need for a first baseman, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looking to have made the jump to perennial MVP candidate. Toronto could free up at-bats at designated hitter to accommodate Freeman, though, and other high-spending clubs could similarly move incumbent pieces around to make a signing work. Freeman is one of the game’s most consistently productive hitters, having been at least 32 percentage points better than average at the plate (by measure of wRC+) in each season since 2013.

Final Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt was the only one of the fourteen players tagged with the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer this offseason to accept the deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). That means players like Justin Verlander, Freddie Freeman and Robbie Ray have all declined the offers, as had been anticipated.

Verlander was the only one of the aforementioned trio who ever looked like a realistic possibility to accept the QO, as he’s coming off a season lost to Tommy John surgery recovery and turns 39 years old in February. Astros owner Jim Crane told reporters last month that Verlander was looking for a contract “of some length,” though. He and his representatives found that multi-year pact on the open market, as Verlander quickly re-signed with Houston on a two-year guarantee with an opt-out possibility after 2022.

Freeman and Ray, meanwhile, made the very easy call to turn the QO. They’re among the top handful of players in this year’s class, with each likely to land a five or six-year deal that pushes well north of $100MM. There was no incentive for either player to entertain the possibility of taking a QO, since declining has no impact on their ability to continue to negotiate a longer-term arrangement with their incumbent clubs, as Verlander did with the Astros.

Here’s a full rundown of the players who rejected the qualifying offer (all other decisions had been previously reported):

Sixth Year Still A Sticking Point In Talks Between Freddie Freeman, Braves

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Though the consensus around the game remains that a reunion between Freddie Freeman and the Braves is something of a fait accompli, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the two sides are still hung up on the length of the deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale had previously reported that the 2020 NL MVP had already rejected the Braves’ best offer ($135MM over five years), though it’s unclear if that’s the same offer the club had made when Heyman reported a “gap” between the two sides in September.

Freeman, who has played the entirety of his twelve-year big-league career in Atlanta, is reportedly looking for a deal that would pay him something closer to $200MM over six years. Whether or not the Braves have bumped up their dollar offer is unclear, but the first baseman, who cemented his place in the annals of Braves history during the club’s 2021 World Series run, appears set on receiving a deal that would take him through at least his age-37 season. It’s quite clear that a carbon-copy of the five-year, $130MM deal Paul Goldschmidt signed with the Cardinals ahead of the 2019 season won’t get it done. MLBTR projects that Freeman will ultimately sign for six years and $180MM.

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has already confirmed the club will run a higher payroll in 2022. To keep Freeman around, they’ll have to; following yesterday’s signing of Manny Piña, Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates (including arbitration salary projections) that the Braves have already committed just shy of $133MM to their 2022 roster. This figure could decrease with a suspension of Marcell Ozuna (who’s slated to earn $16MM next year) or if the club chooses to non-tender a few of its arbitration-eligible players (Johan Camargo, Sean Newcomb, and Orlando Arcia are all non-tender candidates), but not by enough to accommodate the roughly $30MM Freeman will command on an annual basis without a significant payroll bump.

Beyond Freeman’s importance as the face of the franchise (a role he inherited from Chipper Jones), his career numbers justify a significant investment. Since debuting as a September call-up in 2010, Freeman has put together the numbers of a likely future Hall 0f Famer, compiling a .295/.384/.509 career slash-line while mashing 271 homers. His best year came in the abbreviated 2020 season, when he put together a monstrous .341/.462/.640 line across 60 games and won his first career MVP. A pillar of consistency, Freeman hasn’t posted an OPS+ below 132 since 2012 (his age-22 season) and has played in at least 147 games in all but two of his eleven full seasons. He’s not yet shown any signs of regression, as he followed up his MVP year with a .300/.393/.503 line (basically identical to his career marks) and an OPS north of 1.000 in the playoffs.

Among the many interesting wrinkles in the surprisingly drawn-out process of a reigning World Champion attempting to hold on to its best player is the Braves’ ownership structure. Because Liberty Media, the club’s owner since a complicated stock swap deal with Time Warner in 2007, is a publicly traded company, it must disclose a detailed account of its earnings on a quarterly basis, giving fans and followers of the industry a unique look into the team’s internal financial workings. Maury Brown of Forbes reports that the club posted baseball-related revenues of $222MM in the third quarter of 2021 (roughly the second half of the season) alone.

Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, who beat the Braves in both the ’96 and ’99 Fall Classics, have at least kicked the tires on Freeman — a development likely to send shivers down the spines of Braves fans. Though hardly surprising — every team with money and a need at first base is likely to at least check in — the news will only put further pressure on Anthopoulos to re-sign his team’s most consistent and recognizable player. Travis d’Arnaud, Ozzie Albies, and Atlanta-area native Dansby Swanson (an infant when the Braves last won a title) have already joined the chorus of fans demanding a speedy deal, calling on club management to “re-sign Freddie” during their speeches at Truist Park following the team’s championship parade.

Even if the Braves do wrap up a deal to keep Freeman in Atlanta into his elder years, Anthopoulos’ offseason business is unlikely to be done. Three of the four outfielders the club acquired in July (Joc Pederson, NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario, and World Series MVP Jorge Soler) are also free agents, and the fourth (Adam Duvall) is arbitration-eligible after turning down his half of a $7MM mutual option. With Ozuna’s future in Atlanta uncertain, Ronald Acuña Jr. still recovering from a major knee injury, and top prospect Cristian Pache a major question mark with the bat, the reigning champ’s outfield situation remains up in the air. They may also wish to add a veteran starter to a mix that includes Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Charlie Morton, and a stable of promising-but-unproven arms (including Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, Tucker Davidson, Kyle Muller, and Touki Toussaint) with mixed records in the big leagues.

Details On Talks Between Freddie Freeman, Braves

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“You couldn’t find a soul who believes [Freddie] Freeman won’t be returning to Atlanta,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes about the general consensus around the GM Meetings this week.  Despite this widespread expectation that Freeman and the Braves will eventually work out a new contract, that certainty can’t be at a full 100 percent, considering that the two sides weren’t able to agree to an extension before Freeman reached free agency.

Nightengale also provides some numbers in regards to the negotiations, as Freeman and his representatives are looking for a deal in the range of six years and $200MM.  That is a sizeable bump over one Atlanta offer that Freeman has already turned down, with the Braves offering $135MM over a five-year pact.  Details weren’t provided on when exactly this five-year/$135MM offer was floated, whether it was a recent offer on the Braves’ part or if it came earlier in the year.  Reports from back in September already indicated that some type of “gap” existed between the two sides in contract talks, and a $65MM difference would certainly qualify.

Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130MM extension with the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season has long been cited as a potential comp for a new Freeman contract, since both deals involved star first baseman entering their age-32 seasons, and both players are even represented by the same agency (Excel Sports Management).  This comparison point clearly stood out for the Braves, considering their offer to Freeman was only slightly above the Goldschmidt deal.

However, a case could certainly be made that Freeman is worth more than just a $5MM bump, for starters due to the simple fact that the Goldschmidt extension is over two years’ old.  Freeman also has a longer track record as an Atlanta icon (whereas the Cardinals had just acquired Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks a few months’ prior) and Freeman just won the NL MVP Award in the abbreviated 2020 season.  If the Braves’ offer came very recently, it seems like even more of an undervalue, considering Freeman had another big year in 2021 and then an enormous performance in the playoffs to help the Braves win the World Series.

Beyond just the dollar figure, the sixth year stands out as a potential sticking point.  Committing over $32MM in average annual value to a first base-only player into his age-37 season carries its share of risk, especially for a Braves team that operates within a fairly limited payroll.  Roster Resource estimates that Atlanta finished the 2021 season with $145MM in payroll expenditures, which would represent the highest number since Liberty Media bought the franchise in 2007.

Alex Anthopoulos has already said that the team will raise payroll coming off their World Series triumph, and the president of baseball operations made a point of mentioning the mutual interest between both the Braves and Freeman in continuing their relationship: “We’ve made it clear we want him to stay.  He wants to stay.”  Looking at Atlanta’s current payroll, however, the Braves already have over $141MM committed for 2022.  Even factoring in some or most of Marcell Ozuna’s $16MM salary being reduced by suspension, Liberty Media would have to go way beyond their historical comfort zone ccommodate something in the range of a $30MM salary for Freeman, not to mention any other additions the Braves would need to fill any other roster holes.

Freeman ranked third on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and while our prediction didn’t quite hit the $200MM threshold, Freeman is projected for a six-year, $180MM contract.  Freeman has proven to be enough of an elite talent that such a deal is likely to be out there for him somewhere on the open market, so the Braves may now face a bidding war to keep their longtime star in the fold.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT.  With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…

This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs.  Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.

These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer.  If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022.  They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team).  Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.

If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team.  Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold.  (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)

If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers.  This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.  It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date.  In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.

With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout.  By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.

Braves’ President Alex Anthopoulos Says Payroll Will Increase In 2022

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Braves’ president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, who recently added a World Series victory to his resume, spoke with members of the media today about what the club has planned between now and their upcoming title defense in 2022. When it comes to the budget, Anthopoulos said that it will go up next season, though the exact figure is still being finalized. (Twitter link from David O’Brien of The Athletic.)

It’s hardly surprising that ownership is going to invest some more money into the club, given that they surely saw increased revenues from ticket sales and television viewership during their triumphant march to becoming World Series champions. They began the 2021 season with a payroll over $131MM, the highest opening day figure in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. In July, they acquired Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson, Stephen Vogt and Richard Rodriguez, taking on about $15MM in salary and pushing their season-ending payroll to somewhere in the $145-150MM range. At the moment, their outlook for 2022 is just over $141MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, already fairly close to 2022’s final outlay. Therefore, their offseason strategy will depend upon exactly how much of increase the front office has to work with.

Anthopoulos himself acknowledged that it will be hard to keep all of the outfielders. (Twitter link from Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.) Soler, Pederson and Rosario are all heading into free agency today, leaving the club with a 2022 outfield of Duvall, Cristian Pache and Guillermo Heredia. Ronald Acuna will retake a spot as soon as he’s healthy but isn’t expected to be ready by opening day. There’s certainly room to add to that group, on paper, as long as there’s money available to do it.

Of course, there’s another area that the club surely wants to dedicate some resources to, and that’s bringing Freddie Freeman back into the fold. When it comes to the slugging first baseman, Anthopoulos said, per Burns, “We’ve made it clear we want him to stay. He wants to stay.” The mutual interest in reuniting is understandable, given that Freeman has been with the organization since they selected him in the second round of the 2007 draft and since has become the face of the franchise, but he’s also 32 years old, meaning this is going to be his best shot to land a huge deal in free agency. As much as he may want to return, he’ll also want to take advantage of his first and potentially only trip to the free agent market and can’t be expected to offer huge hometown discounts.

Freeman has been one of the most consistently-excellent hitters over the past decade or so. Since his 2013 breakout, he’s never had a wRC+ lower than 132 and never produced less than 3.3 fWAR, even including the shortened 2020 campaign. In 2021, he hit 31 home runs and slashed .300/.393/.503, good enough for a wRC+ of 135 and 4.5 fWAR. It’s hard to fathom him doing that in any other uniform at this point, but the Atlanta brass will surely have to put some cash on the barrelhead to keep it that way.

Freeman, Braves Still Facing Gap In Extension Talks

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The Braves have extended a pair of veterans in the past few weeks, inking catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a second two-year, $16MM contract and extending right-hander Charlie Morton on a new one-year deal worth $20MM (plus a $20MM club option for the 2023 season). Atlanta fans, of course, are eagerly awaiting a more sizable investment in cornerstone slugger Freddie Freeman, the reigning National League MVP. While the two sides have talked, however, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that a gap remains, making Freeman increasingly likely to reach the open market at the end of the season, although both parties still hope to ultimately come to an agreement.

That a “gap” exists between the two parties effectively goes without saying. (He’d be signed by now without one.) Still, most Braves fans have been eagerly awaiting a deal, particularly with a pair of recent extensions now on the books, so even the possibility of Freeman actually reaching the market is unsettling. Freeman reaching the free-agent market certainly doesn’t make his departure a foregone conclusion. Talks with other clubs would only increase his leverage in negotiations with the Braves, potentially helping his cause on an eventual new contract.

Freeman, who’ll turn 32 on Sunday, is playing out the final season of an eight-year, $135MM contract extension that, at the time, was an enormous deal relative to contracts signed by peers with similar service time. The Braves were effectively paying full market value for Freeman despite him being years from the open market, and yet it’s still turned out to be a major bargain for the five-time All-Star. Freeman got out to a “slow” start (by his standards, anyway), but he’s absolutely dominated since mid-June. Over the past three calendar months (admittedly, an arbitrary cutoff point), Freeman is hitting .341/.417/.554 with 16 home runs, 15 doubles and a triple in 348 plate appearances.

On the whole, Freeman is hitting .293/.388/.505 with 29 big flies this season. It’s a step down from last season’s ludicrous .341/.462/.640 batting line through all 60 games but is nevertheless exceptional production. That he’ll turn 32 is surely a concern for the Braves, but as has been pointed out here and many other places in the past, it was just two years ago that fellow All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt inked a five-year, $130MM contract extension with the Cardinals that kicked off in his own age-32 season.

That contract is surely a point of comparison for Freeman and his reps at Excel Sports Management. Given last season’s MVP nod and a recent track record that’s even more productive than the excellent run Goldschmidt had leading into his own extension, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Freeman’s camp is looking to top that mark.

From a payroll vantage point, there’s no real difficulty fitting Freeman onto the long-term books. The Braves signed both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies to wildly team-friendly contracts, and they’ll see veterans Drew Smyly and Chris Martin come off the books in 2022, trimming $18MM in guarantees.

Much of those savings will be reallocated to arbitration raises for next year’s class, but it should also be pointed out that the Braves don’t have too many large raises to give out. Dansby Swanson will surely get a big bump from this year’s $6MM salary, but their only other particularly sizable raises will go to lefty Max Fried and third baseman Austin Riley. Fried is due a raise on this year’s $3.5MM salary, while Riley will be arbitration-eligible for the first time. Not including arbitration raises (but including option buyouts), the Braves currently have about $84MM committed to next year’s payroll, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.

Given their current payroll of about $145MM, a new deal for Freeman is more than manageable. Ostensibly, this very situation is where the early extensions inked by Acuna and Albies ought to pay dividends. Having both stars locked up long-term on below-market deals ought to allow the Braves to pay to keep a player like Freeman, who is nearing franchise icon status, for the bulk (or entirety) of his remaining career.

Of course, the Braves have other long-term prospects to consider. Swanson will be a free agent next winter, and Riley is looking increasingly like a player who could be a foundational piece in his own right. At some point, a hard decision or two will need to be made, but it’d be nothing short of stunning to see Freeman actually depart, even if he does reach the open market.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

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