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If Not The Braves, Where Could Freddie Freeman Sign?

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32-year-old first baseman Freddie Freeman, once of baseball’s best hitters, entered the lockout without a home.  After 12 years with the Braves and coming off a championship, the assumption is that Atlanta remains the favorite.

The last information we have on Freeman’s negotiations with the Braves dates back to mid-November.  On November 12th, Bob Nightengale of USA Today put it this way, reporting from the GM Meetings in Carlsbad:

“Free agent Freddie Freeman was on the mind of every team seeking a first baseman, with Freeman rejecting Atlanta’s five-year, $135 million offer, and seeking closer to a six-year, $200 million deal. Yet, you couldn’t find a soul who believes Freeman won’t be returning to Atlanta.”

Jon Heyman of MLB Network generally concurred in a report four days later, writing, “Last heard 6th year was still at issue in Freeman/Braves talks but situation is fluid and they’ve still got to be considered the favorite.”  A few weeks after that, Heyman suggested the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays are “trying to pry” Freeman away from the Braves, even though those clubs find it unlikely.

Will the Braves or Freeman crack on the sixth year issue once the lockout ends?  Would Freeman take a lower AAV than the expected $30MM+ to convince the Braves to commit to a sixth year, perhaps at something like six years and $160MM?  Whatever needs to happen to get it done, the impending lockout did not create enough pressure to result in an agreement.  You’d have to think Freeman’s chances of leaving the Braves are around their highest point, whatever those chances are.  The Braves have let it get to a point where Freeman has no team, and other teams likely made offers.

Let’s assume something like MLBTR’s six-year, $180MM projection would be needed to lure Freeman away from the Braves.  Signing Freeman would also likely require draft pick forfeiture.  If not the Braves, which teams could reasonably do that contract?  Let’s start by assessing Heyman’s trio.

  • Dodgers: The Dodgers doing a six-year contract for another team’s 32-year-old free agent?  Andrew Friedman has been in charge for seven years now, and he’s given out four-plus years to another team’s free agent two times: four years to Brandon McCarthy in 2014, and four years to AJ Pollock in 2019.  Under Friedman, the club did go to four years to retain Justin Turner and Chris Taylor and five to keep Kenley Jansen in free agency.  They also notably did a 12-year extension with Mookie Betts before he played a regular season game with the team.  But six years to Freeman along with the forfeiture of the Dodgers’ second and fifth round draft picks?  I just don’t see it.  Signing Freeman would also require Max Muncy to spend more time at second or third base, but the addition of an NL DH could alleviate a potential logjam.
  • Yankees: The Yankees basically did nothing to improve the team prior to the lockout, so there’s the idea they could add Freeman’s sweet-swinging lefty bat in lieu of their more pressing need at shortstop.  Even if Freeman costs $180MM, that’s still likely over $100MM less than Carlos Correa.  The team could and would likely have to exceed a new 2022 competitive balance tax threshold to sign Freeman, but they may be willing to do so after staying below the line in 2021.  Adding Freeman would do nothing to solve the shortstop issue, and it would also crowd out Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres to a degree.  One of them could be traded to accommodate Freeman.  Still, Freeman is an imperfect fit for a team that is also in need of rotation help.
  • Blue Jays: Speaking of imperfect Freeman fits, the Blue Jays currently have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base.  Assuming Freeman doesn’t intend to mostly shelve his first baseman’s glove, Vlad Jr. would have to spend most of his time at designated hitter – fresh off a second-place MVP finish and Silver Slugger award.  A shift back to third base for Guerrero would seem even more risky.  It’s also worth noting that signing Freeman would permanently plug up Toronto’s DH spot, where George Springer spent nearly half his games in 2021.  I think the Blue Jays could swing the financial commitment to Freeman, and I get the idea of replacing Marcus Semien’s bat, but this is not a great roster fit.

So we’ve looked at the three teams Heyman linked to Freeman, and none seem like a perfect fit.  Let’s look at all the other even slightly plausible options.

    • White Sox: They’ve got Jose Abreu at first base, but only through 2022.  They’ve also got flexibility in the DH spot, so the roster fit could work.  Financially, though, I’d be quite surprised to see the White Sox make this level of commitment given their current payroll situation.
    • Tigers: There’s a sense that the Tigers have finished their major spending after the Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez signings.  But man, would Freeman be a game-changer in Detroit.  They’ve got Jonathan Schoop at first base and Miguel Cabrera at DH, neither of whom should block a player like Freeman.  Freeman could get in the way of top prospect Spencer Torkelson, who played more first base than third this year in the minors.  Plus, the club has Jeimer Candelario at third base.  I don’t think the Tigers will pursue Freeman, but if they had the desire to spend the money I think the roster could be figured out.
    • Red Sox: The Red Sox have Bobby Dalbec at first base, who came on very strong in the season’s final two months.  They’ve got J.D. Martinez at DH, but only for one more year.  They also have first base prospect Triston Casas.  Roster-wise, the Red Sox have good options at first for the long-term, though no established Major Leaguers.  They also have a GM who’s yet to give a free agent more than $14MM.  As with Andrew Friedman, this just doesn’t seem like Chaim Bloom’s way of doing things.
    • Astros: The Astros have Yuli Gurriel at first base, but only for one more year.  They’ve got Yordan Alvarez as the regular DH.  Signing Freeman would probably necessitate a Gurriel trade.  The Astros do have the payroll flexibility to accommodate Freeman, but they seem like yet another big market club that would shy away from signing a corner infielder through age 37 – especially since they don’t seem to want to pay Carlos Correa past age 31.
    • Angels:  The Angels are committed to Shohei Ohtani as DH for two more years, and they’d surely like to lock up the AL MVP beyond that.  And Jared Walsh took over first base quite capably for the Halos this year.  Like the Yankees, shortstop and the rotation are more pressing needs.  It’s difficult to see Freeman landing here.
    • Mariners: The Mariners have Ty France at first base, plus Evan White under contract through 2025.  They don’t have a set DH, but Kyle Lewis and Luis Torrens are projected to spend time there in 2022.  France could potentially play some second or third base, if the Mariners decided to accommodate Freeman.  The Mariners spent big on Robbie Ray and traded for Adam Frazier, but they’re known to be in the hunt for a significant position player addition.  I consider Freeman within the realm of possibility, though the more versatile Kris Bryant would fit better if the price tag is similar.
    • Rangers: The Rangers have Nathaniel Lowe at first base, and no set DH.  Lowe had a nice year for a player who hits the ball on the ground 55% of the time, but bumping him to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be problematic.  It’d be staggering for the Rangers to add Freeman after already committing $561.2MM to four free agents, though they could afford it.  Pitching has to be a higher priority for this team, but who’s to say they can’t do both?
    • Cubs: The Cubs have Frank Schwindel penciled in at first base after a strong couple of months, and no NL team has an incumbent DH.  Schwindel is 29 and there was nothing special about his exit velocity or launch angle even in his successful stint.  Pushing Schwindel to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be an issue, and the team did make a statement with the Marcus Stroman signing.  But that was a surprisingly short three-year deal, and with Freeman we’re talking about double that term to a player who is 19 months older.  Freeman just doesn’t fit with the long-term payroll flexibility GM Jed Hoyer enjoys.
    • Cardinals: The team has Paul Goldschmidt under contract for three more years, but again, an NL DH would open things up.  Signing Freeman would mean stretching payroll to a franchise record, and I doubt the team considers first base/DH a position of need.
    • Marlins: The Marlins have Jesus Aguilar under control for next year, but he’s not much of an impediment for a player like Freeman.  Here, it’s all about money.  A team with a $65MM payroll can afford Freeman, but Avisail Garcia’s $53MM deal seemed like the Marlins’ big free agency strike.  Freeman would require more than triple that commitment.
    • Mets: The Mets have to be listed here in the name of, “How crazy can Steve Cohen get?”  Crazy enough to add Freeman to the $254.5MM the club already committed to free agents this winter, while also forfeiting the 14th pick in next year’s draft?  Even with a more significant need in the rotation?  I don’t expect Cohen to steal Freeman away from the Braves, but it’d be the ultimate power move.
    • Phillies: The Phillies have Rhys Hoskins for two more years.  He’s been an excellent hitter, though he will be coming off lower abdomen surgery.  The Phillies’ needs at shortstop, third base, left field, and center field are much more stark than at first base/DH.  They also have a fairly bloated payroll situation.  I suppose Dave Dombrowski could simplify and try to sign Freeman in the name of adding the top bat, but it’d be a surprising choice.
    • Nationals: One year of Josh Bell wouldn’t block Freeman.  And should the Nats really take any kind of step back with only three more years of control of Juan Soto?  But it just doesn’t sound like the Nationals are looking to take on a commitment of this nature this winter.
    • Rockies: They’ve got C.J. Cron at first base, but could easily move him to DH for Freeman.  The Rockies have relatively modest commitments, which drop quite a bit as of 2024.  As a team with real and surprising interest in Kris Bryant, we should consider a possible pursuit of Freeman as well.
    • Padres: Freeman is an excellent roster fit for the Padres, who have an underperforming Eric Hosmer locked in through 2025.  The team’s payroll is pushing $200MM already, so GM A.J. Preller would need to get creative and move contracts to fit Freeman in.  It’s a possibility that can’t be ruled out.
    • Giants: The Giants haven’t really demonstrated their financial might yet, committing $99.4MM to four free agents without topping Anthony DeSclafani’s $36MM.  DH is the ideal spot for the injury-prone Brandon Belt.  Farhan Zaidi does seem to come from the increasingly common GM school of thought that eschews long-term free agent commitments, even in big markets.  He’d have to buck that trend to sign Freeman, but otherwise it’s reasonable enough.
    • Brewers: The Brewers are a contending team with Rowdy Tellez penciled in at first base, so they at least warrant a mention.  It’s just hard to see them outbidding the field to land Freeman in that $180MM range.  I could write something very similar for the Guardians.

You’ve seen my opinions; now it’s your turn (direct poll link for app users here).

Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

AL Notes: Astros, Blue Jays, Orioles

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Alex Bregman is preparing for a move to shortstop, should the Astros have a need, the third baseman told Michael Schwab on his podcast. Houston has not indicated a willingness to move Bregman, and in fact, GM James Click recently said that moving Bregman was not something they were considering. Still, it doesn’t hurt for Bregman to offer. We have seen a trend lately of third basemen moving up the defensive spectrum as players like Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw have seen time at second and Eugenio Suarez tried his hand at shortstop. These moves were hardly universal success stories, however, so it’s likely Bregman remains at the hot corner when the 2022 season opens.

In other rumblings from around the American League…

  • Like Bregman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was adamant last winter about his willingness to move up the defensive spectrum. Ultimately, Vladdy spent all of two innings at the hot corner in 2021. Recent rumors have again suggesting moving Vlad to third in order to accommodate a totally hypothetical Freddie Freeman signing, but that’s not something the Blue Jays have discussed with their young star, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. There would be other ways to accommodate a Freeman signing, but at least for now it seems their interest in Freeman was more due diligence than earnest sales pitch.
  • The Orioles signed five pitchers to minor league deals, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Bryan Bautista, 17, Raynel Duran, 18, Wilton Rondon, 19, Darwin Caballero, 21, and Noelin Cuevas, 19, will start the 2022 season in the Orioles’ organization. The Orioles continue to be one of the most pitching-needy organizations in the game, so while adding a handful of minor league free agents hardly qualifies as a game-changer, it’s a positive data point nonetheless. These five were all international free agents who will join the lowest level of Baltimore’s system, notes Kubatko.

Yankees, Blue Jays Among Teams With Interest In Freddie Freeman

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2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman is one of the top free agents on the market this winter, and he’s unsurprisingly drawing interest from a few of the game’s higher-spending organizations. The Yankees and Blue Jays are among the teams to have reached out to the five-time All-Star, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link).

Many around the industry expect Freeman will eventually re-sign with the Braves. The star first baseman has been a member of the organization for nearly a decade and a half, and it’d be a bitter pill for the fanbase to swallow if Freeman departs on the heels of Atlanta’s first World Series title since 1995. No deal has yet gotten done, though, with the Braves’ reluctance to offer a sixth guaranteed year reportedly the hold-up in talks so far. Heyman adds that Freeman had been seeking a guarantee in the $180MM range. Entering the offseason, MLBTR indeed projected a six-year, $180MM pact for the three-time Silver Slugger award winner.

It’s certainly not out of the question Freeman and the Braves will eventually bridge their gap. Heyman notes that some other organizations in pursuit are still skeptical about the possibility the 32-year-old leaves Atlanta. There’s no harm for clubs to reach out to Freeman’s representatives at Excel Sports Management in case the Braves aren’t willing to meet his ultimate ask, though.

Were Freeman to seriously entertain the possibility of leaving Atlanta, it stands to reason other clubs would get involved. Both Heyman and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic have floated the possibility of the Dodgers making a run at the Southern California native. Los Angeles has already lost Corey Seager and could see Chris Taylor also depart. Signing Freeman while bumping Max Muncy over from first to second base would go a long way towards replacing the offensive production they’ve lost this winter.

Broadly speaking, any big-market team could poke around the Freeman market. The Jays have no need for a first baseman, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looking to have made the jump to perennial MVP candidate. Toronto could free up at-bats at designated hitter to accommodate Freeman, though, and other high-spending clubs could similarly move incumbent pieces around to make a signing work. Freeman is one of the game’s most consistently productive hitters, having been at least 32 percentage points better than average at the plate (by measure of wRC+) in each season since 2013.

Final Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt was the only one of the fourteen players tagged with the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer this offseason to accept the deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). That means players like Justin Verlander, Freddie Freeman and Robbie Ray have all declined the offers, as had been anticipated.

Verlander was the only one of the aforementioned trio who ever looked like a realistic possibility to accept the QO, as he’s coming off a season lost to Tommy John surgery recovery and turns 39 years old in February. Astros owner Jim Crane told reporters last month that Verlander was looking for a contract “of some length,” though. He and his representatives found that multi-year pact on the open market, as Verlander quickly re-signed with Houston on a two-year guarantee with an opt-out possibility after 2022.

Freeman and Ray, meanwhile, made the very easy call to turn the QO. They’re among the top handful of players in this year’s class, with each likely to land a five or six-year deal that pushes well north of $100MM. There was no incentive for either player to entertain the possibility of taking a QO, since declining has no impact on their ability to continue to negotiate a longer-term arrangement with their incumbent clubs, as Verlander did with the Astros.

Here’s a full rundown of the players who rejected the qualifying offer (all other decisions had been previously reported):

Sixth Year Still A Sticking Point In Talks Between Freddie Freeman, Braves

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Though the consensus around the game remains that a reunion between Freddie Freeman and the Braves is something of a fait accompli, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the two sides are still hung up on the length of the deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale had previously reported that the 2020 NL MVP had already rejected the Braves’ best offer ($135MM over five years), though it’s unclear if that’s the same offer the club had made when Heyman reported a “gap” between the two sides in September.

Freeman, who has played the entirety of his twelve-year big-league career in Atlanta, is reportedly looking for a deal that would pay him something closer to $200MM over six years. Whether or not the Braves have bumped up their dollar offer is unclear, but the first baseman, who cemented his place in the annals of Braves history during the club’s 2021 World Series run, appears set on receiving a deal that would take him through at least his age-37 season. It’s quite clear that a carbon-copy of the five-year, $130MM deal Paul Goldschmidt signed with the Cardinals ahead of the 2019 season won’t get it done. MLBTR projects that Freeman will ultimately sign for six years and $180MM.

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has already confirmed the club will run a higher payroll in 2022. To keep Freeman around, they’ll have to; following yesterday’s signing of Manny Piña, Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates (including arbitration salary projections) that the Braves have already committed just shy of $133MM to their 2022 roster. This figure could decrease with a suspension of Marcell Ozuna (who’s slated to earn $16MM next year) or if the club chooses to non-tender a few of its arbitration-eligible players (Johan Camargo, Sean Newcomb, and Orlando Arcia are all non-tender candidates), but not by enough to accommodate the roughly $30MM Freeman will command on an annual basis without a significant payroll bump.

Beyond Freeman’s importance as the face of the franchise (a role he inherited from Chipper Jones), his career numbers justify a significant investment. Since debuting as a September call-up in 2010, Freeman has put together the numbers of a likely future Hall 0f Famer, compiling a .295/.384/.509 career slash-line while mashing 271 homers. His best year came in the abbreviated 2020 season, when he put together a monstrous .341/.462/.640 line across 60 games and won his first career MVP. A pillar of consistency, Freeman hasn’t posted an OPS+ below 132 since 2012 (his age-22 season) and has played in at least 147 games in all but two of his eleven full seasons. He’s not yet shown any signs of regression, as he followed up his MVP year with a .300/.393/.503 line (basically identical to his career marks) and an OPS north of 1.000 in the playoffs.

Among the many interesting wrinkles in the surprisingly drawn-out process of a reigning World Champion attempting to hold on to its best player is the Braves’ ownership structure. Because Liberty Media, the club’s owner since a complicated stock swap deal with Time Warner in 2007, is a publicly traded company, it must disclose a detailed account of its earnings on a quarterly basis, giving fans and followers of the industry a unique look into the team’s internal financial workings. Maury Brown of Forbes reports that the club posted baseball-related revenues of $222MM in the third quarter of 2021 (roughly the second half of the season) alone.

Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, who beat the Braves in both the ’96 and ’99 Fall Classics, have at least kicked the tires on Freeman — a development likely to send shivers down the spines of Braves fans. Though hardly surprising — every team with money and a need at first base is likely to at least check in — the news will only put further pressure on Anthopoulos to re-sign his team’s most consistent and recognizable player. Travis d’Arnaud, Ozzie Albies, and Atlanta-area native Dansby Swanson (an infant when the Braves last won a title) have already joined the chorus of fans demanding a speedy deal, calling on club management to “re-sign Freddie” during their speeches at Truist Park following the team’s championship parade.

Even if the Braves do wrap up a deal to keep Freeman in Atlanta into his elder years, Anthopoulos’ offseason business is unlikely to be done. Three of the four outfielders the club acquired in July (Joc Pederson, NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario, and World Series MVP Jorge Soler) are also free agents, and the fourth (Adam Duvall) is arbitration-eligible after turning down his half of a $7MM mutual option. With Ozuna’s future in Atlanta uncertain, Ronald Acuña Jr. still recovering from a major knee injury, and top prospect Cristian Pache a major question mark with the bat, the reigning champ’s outfield situation remains up in the air. They may also wish to add a veteran starter to a mix that includes Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Charlie Morton, and a stable of promising-but-unproven arms (including Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, Tucker Davidson, Kyle Muller, and Touki Toussaint) with mixed records in the big leagues.

Details On Talks Between Freddie Freeman, Braves

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“You couldn’t find a soul who believes [Freddie] Freeman won’t be returning to Atlanta,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes about the general consensus around the GM Meetings this week.  Despite this widespread expectation that Freeman and the Braves will eventually work out a new contract, that certainty can’t be at a full 100 percent, considering that the two sides weren’t able to agree to an extension before Freeman reached free agency.

Nightengale also provides some numbers in regards to the negotiations, as Freeman and his representatives are looking for a deal in the range of six years and $200MM.  That is a sizeable bump over one Atlanta offer that Freeman has already turned down, with the Braves offering $135MM over a five-year pact.  Details weren’t provided on when exactly this five-year/$135MM offer was floated, whether it was a recent offer on the Braves’ part or if it came earlier in the year.  Reports from back in September already indicated that some type of “gap” existed between the two sides in contract talks, and a $65MM difference would certainly qualify.

Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130MM extension with the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season has long been cited as a potential comp for a new Freeman contract, since both deals involved star first baseman entering their age-32 seasons, and both players are even represented by the same agency (Excel Sports Management).  This comparison point clearly stood out for the Braves, considering their offer to Freeman was only slightly above the Goldschmidt deal.

However, a case could certainly be made that Freeman is worth more than just a $5MM bump, for starters due to the simple fact that the Goldschmidt extension is over two years’ old.  Freeman also has a longer track record as an Atlanta icon (whereas the Cardinals had just acquired Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks a few months’ prior) and Freeman just won the NL MVP Award in the abbreviated 2020 season.  If the Braves’ offer came very recently, it seems like even more of an undervalue, considering Freeman had another big year in 2021 and then an enormous performance in the playoffs to help the Braves win the World Series.

Beyond just the dollar figure, the sixth year stands out as a potential sticking point.  Committing over $32MM in average annual value to a first base-only player into his age-37 season carries its share of risk, especially for a Braves team that operates within a fairly limited payroll.  Roster Resource estimates that Atlanta finished the 2021 season with $145MM in payroll expenditures, which would represent the highest number since Liberty Media bought the franchise in 2007.

Alex Anthopoulos has already said that the team will raise payroll coming off their World Series triumph, and the president of baseball operations made a point of mentioning the mutual interest between both the Braves and Freeman in continuing their relationship: “We’ve made it clear we want him to stay.  He wants to stay.”  Looking at Atlanta’s current payroll, however, the Braves already have over $141MM committed for 2022.  Even factoring in some or most of Marcell Ozuna’s $16MM salary being reduced by suspension, Liberty Media would have to go way beyond their historical comfort zone ccommodate something in the range of a $30MM salary for Freeman, not to mention any other additions the Braves would need to fill any other roster holes.

Freeman ranked third on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and while our prediction didn’t quite hit the $200MM threshold, Freeman is projected for a six-year, $180MM contract.  Freeman has proven to be enough of an elite talent that such a deal is likely to be out there for him somewhere on the open market, so the Braves may now face a bidding war to keep their longtime star in the fold.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT.  With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…

This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs.  Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.

These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer.  If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022.  They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team).  Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.

If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team.  Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold.  (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)

If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers.  This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.  It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date.  In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.

With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout.  By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.

Braves’ President Alex Anthopoulos Says Payroll Will Increase In 2022

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Braves’ president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, who recently added a World Series victory to his resume, spoke with members of the media today about what the club has planned between now and their upcoming title defense in 2022. When it comes to the budget, Anthopoulos said that it will go up next season, though the exact figure is still being finalized. (Twitter link from David O’Brien of The Athletic.)

It’s hardly surprising that ownership is going to invest some more money into the club, given that they surely saw increased revenues from ticket sales and television viewership during their triumphant march to becoming World Series champions. They began the 2021 season with a payroll over $131MM, the highest opening day figure in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. In July, they acquired Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson, Stephen Vogt and Richard Rodriguez, taking on about $15MM in salary and pushing their season-ending payroll to somewhere in the $145-150MM range. At the moment, their outlook for 2022 is just over $141MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, already fairly close to 2022’s final outlay. Therefore, their offseason strategy will depend upon exactly how much of increase the front office has to work with.

Anthopoulos himself acknowledged that it will be hard to keep all of the outfielders. (Twitter link from Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.) Soler, Pederson and Rosario are all heading into free agency today, leaving the club with a 2022 outfield of Duvall, Cristian Pache and Guillermo Heredia. Ronald Acuna will retake a spot as soon as he’s healthy but isn’t expected to be ready by opening day. There’s certainly room to add to that group, on paper, as long as there’s money available to do it.

Of course, there’s another area that the club surely wants to dedicate some resources to, and that’s bringing Freddie Freeman back into the fold. When it comes to the slugging first baseman, Anthopoulos said, per Burns, “We’ve made it clear we want him to stay. He wants to stay.” The mutual interest in reuniting is understandable, given that Freeman has been with the organization since they selected him in the second round of the 2007 draft and since has become the face of the franchise, but he’s also 32 years old, meaning this is going to be his best shot to land a huge deal in free agency. As much as he may want to return, he’ll also want to take advantage of his first and potentially only trip to the free agent market and can’t be expected to offer huge hometown discounts.

Freeman has been one of the most consistently-excellent hitters over the past decade or so. Since his 2013 breakout, he’s never had a wRC+ lower than 132 and never produced less than 3.3 fWAR, even including the shortened 2020 campaign. In 2021, he hit 31 home runs and slashed .300/.393/.503, good enough for a wRC+ of 135 and 4.5 fWAR. It’s hard to fathom him doing that in any other uniform at this point, but the Atlanta brass will surely have to put some cash on the barrelhead to keep it that way.

Freeman, Braves Still Facing Gap In Extension Talks

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The Braves have extended a pair of veterans in the past few weeks, inking catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a second two-year, $16MM contract and extending right-hander Charlie Morton on a new one-year deal worth $20MM (plus a $20MM club option for the 2023 season). Atlanta fans, of course, are eagerly awaiting a more sizable investment in cornerstone slugger Freddie Freeman, the reigning National League MVP. While the two sides have talked, however, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that a gap remains, making Freeman increasingly likely to reach the open market at the end of the season, although both parties still hope to ultimately come to an agreement.

That a “gap” exists between the two parties effectively goes without saying. (He’d be signed by now without one.) Still, most Braves fans have been eagerly awaiting a deal, particularly with a pair of recent extensions now on the books, so even the possibility of Freeman actually reaching the market is unsettling. Freeman reaching the free-agent market certainly doesn’t make his departure a foregone conclusion. Talks with other clubs would only increase his leverage in negotiations with the Braves, potentially helping his cause on an eventual new contract.

Freeman, who’ll turn 32 on Sunday, is playing out the final season of an eight-year, $135MM contract extension that, at the time, was an enormous deal relative to contracts signed by peers with similar service time. The Braves were effectively paying full market value for Freeman despite him being years from the open market, and yet it’s still turned out to be a major bargain for the five-time All-Star. Freeman got out to a “slow” start (by his standards, anyway), but he’s absolutely dominated since mid-June. Over the past three calendar months (admittedly, an arbitrary cutoff point), Freeman is hitting .341/.417/.554 with 16 home runs, 15 doubles and a triple in 348 plate appearances.

On the whole, Freeman is hitting .293/.388/.505 with 29 big flies this season. It’s a step down from last season’s ludicrous .341/.462/.640 batting line through all 60 games but is nevertheless exceptional production. That he’ll turn 32 is surely a concern for the Braves, but as has been pointed out here and many other places in the past, it was just two years ago that fellow All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt inked a five-year, $130MM contract extension with the Cardinals that kicked off in his own age-32 season.

That contract is surely a point of comparison for Freeman and his reps at Excel Sports Management. Given last season’s MVP nod and a recent track record that’s even more productive than the excellent run Goldschmidt had leading into his own extension, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Freeman’s camp is looking to top that mark.

From a payroll vantage point, there’s no real difficulty fitting Freeman onto the long-term books. The Braves signed both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies to wildly team-friendly contracts, and they’ll see veterans Drew Smyly and Chris Martin come off the books in 2022, trimming $18MM in guarantees.

Much of those savings will be reallocated to arbitration raises for next year’s class, but it should also be pointed out that the Braves don’t have too many large raises to give out. Dansby Swanson will surely get a big bump from this year’s $6MM salary, but their only other particularly sizable raises will go to lefty Max Fried and third baseman Austin Riley. Fried is due a raise on this year’s $3.5MM salary, while Riley will be arbitration-eligible for the first time. Not including arbitration raises (but including option buyouts), the Braves currently have about $84MM committed to next year’s payroll, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.

Given their current payroll of about $145MM, a new deal for Freeman is more than manageable. Ostensibly, this very situation is where the early extensions inked by Acuna and Albies ought to pay dividends. Having both stars locked up long-term on below-market deals ought to allow the Braves to pay to keep a player like Freeman, who is nearing franchise icon status, for the bulk (or entirety) of his remaining career.

Of course, the Braves have other long-term prospects to consider. Swanson will be a free agent next winter, and Riley is looking increasingly like a player who could be a foundational piece in his own right. At some point, a hard decision or two will need to be made, but it’d be nothing short of stunning to see Freeman actually depart, even if he does reach the open market.

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