Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Freddie Freeman

Rays Made Offer To Freddie Freeman Pre-Lockout

By | at

Even as rumors regarding the possibility of Freddie Freeman leaving the Braves have increased since the beginning of the offseason, big-market clubs with deep pockets — Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays — have been viewed as the primary threats to lure him away. However, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the Rays not only showed interest in Freeman but made him an offer prior to commissioner Rob Manfred’s implementation of the current lockout.

It’s surprising to hear of the Rays even making any degree of play for a free agent of Freeman’s caliber, and many fans will surely poke fun and suggest comically small numbers from Tampa Bay. However, it’s at least worth breaking down the possibility, because when looking ahead at the Rays’ long-term payroll ledger, a massive commitment to Freeman might not be as far-fetched as it sounds.

The 2022 Rays are currently projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez for an $83MM payroll. They’re also expected to field offers for veterans like Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow, among others, following the lockout, which could drop that number back below the team’s $77MM Opening Day record. The mere mention of “franchise record payrolls” in the $77-83MM range serves to underscore just why fans would mock the notion of a Rays/Freeman match, but look ahead to the following season and it becomes easier to envision.

Beginning in 2023, the Rays only have three contracts on the books. Second baseman/outfielder Brandon Lowe will earn $5.25MM, lefty Brooks Raley is guaranteed $4.5MM, and burgeoning star Wander Franco is owed $2MM. The combined $11.75MM does not account for arbitration-eligible players, and the Rays do have their fair share of names who could elevate the total payroll.

Glasnow, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.8MM in 2021, will repeat that salary in 2022 if he doesn’t pitch this year while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Southpaw Ryan Yarbrough will be in line for a decent raise on top of this year’s $4.4MM projection. If he struggles in 2022, he’ll be a non-tender candidate. If he rebounds from an ugly 2021, he could emerge as a trade candidate, given the subsequent raise and the Rays’ considerable pitching depth. Meadows will be due a solid pay bump over this year’s $4.3MM projection, but again, he’s already seen as a trade candidate. Margot is a free agent after the 2022 season.

Beyond that group, the Rays’ arbitration commitments should generally be modest. Yonny Chirinos is projected at $1.2MM this season and will earn a raise depending on how well he rebounds from 2020 Tommy John surgery. Backup catcher Francisco Mejia will be owed a raise, but he’s only projected at $1.5MM himself this year. Ji-Man Choi will be in line for one final bump over this coming year’s $3.2MM salary, but he could very well be moved if the Rays pulled off a shocker and signed Freeman.

In other words: the Rays may have an enormous arbitration class in 2022, but that’s not likely to be the case in 2023. Trades, non-tenders and free agency will subtract from the current group, and the only players set to reach arbitration in ’23 are relievers Pete Fairbanks, Colin Poche, Ryan Thompson and JT Chargois. Notable names like Randy Arozarena, Drew Rasmussen and Luis Patino are on track to hit arbitration in 2024, but at that point the top end of the arb class will have thinned out.

The conventional wisdom behind a small-market club like Tampa Bay being unable to “afford” a mega-deal for someone of Freeman’s caliber is that it’d restrict them from making further additions. Tying up such a large percentage of team payroll in a single player can obviously be hazardous. However, the Rays’ next nucleus already appears more or less in place and isn’t likely to be expensive anytime soon. Franco signed an 11-year, $182MM contract extension and won’t see his salary reach peak levels until 2028 — seven years from now (and, one year shorter than the six years reportedly sought by Freeman).

The Rays’ rotation was something of a patchwork group in 2021, but looking ahead they’re hopeful that a combination of Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz and Patino can lead the charge. McClanahan and Baz won’t reach arbitration until 2025. Tampa Bay has several other high-end pitching prospects coming: Taj Bradley, Seth Johnson and Cole Wilcox among them. The organization likely still has high hopes for oft-injured former top pick Brendan McKay as well.

Looking up and down the lineup, Franco has shortstop locked down, and Brandon Lowe is on a team-friendly deal of his own at second base. Lowe is earning $4MM in 2022, $5.25MM in 2023 and $8.75MM in 2024. The Rays hold club options of $10.5MM and $11.5MM thereafter. If at any point the team believes Lowe’s contract to be unwieldy, he could be flipped in a trade, with top prospect Vidal Brujan stepping up at second base. Brujan could factor into the infield or outfield mix at other positions before then, and Taylor Walls gives Tampa Bay another solid, MLB-ready infield prospect to consider. Top outfield prospect Josh Lowe, meanwhile, seems likely to step into center field before long — perhaps even on Opening Day, if Kiermaier’s contract is moved post-lockout.

Obviously, not all of these players will turn into stars or even regulars, but for the next several seasons, the Rays can build their roster around the likes of McClanahan, Baz, Patino and Rasmussen on the pitching side and around Franco, Arozarena, both Lowes and perhaps Brujan on the position-player side. No one from that group will reach arbitration until at least 2024 (most not until 2025), and the Rays will probably succeed when it comes to persuading at least one or two of their pre-arbitration stars to sign a club-friendly extension. Tampa Bay doesn’t even have $15MM in guaranteed contracts on the books in any individual season from 2023-25 right now — a three-year span that would represent years two, three and four of a theoretical Freeman deal.

None of this is to say that a Freeman-to-the-Rays scenario is likely. Calling it a “long shot” possibility might be charitable, in fact. Tampa Bay will face steep competition from the incumbent Braves as well as a host of large-market teams looking to add a marquee bat to the lineup, and the Rays’ margin for error on a contract of this magnitude is infinitesimal compared to that of a team like the Dodgers, Yankees or even the Braves. But, when considering the Rays’ minimal long-term commitments and the wealth of MLB-ready, pre-arbitration talent they already have in the fold, it’s at least possible to squint and see how they could fit Freeman into the mix — even if he’s earning upwards of $30MM annually.

Max Muncy On Elbow Rehab, Freeman Rumors

By | at

Dodgers infielder Max Muncy missed the 2021 postseason after suffering a ligament tear in his left elbow at the end of the regular season, but the slugger tells David Vassegh of Dodger Talk on AM 570 that he expects to be ready to go whenever the 2022 season can finally begin (link includes audio of the full 13-minute interview). Muncy has already begun swinging a bat and says his rehab has been “progressing well.”

“I’m getting more time to get healthy,” says Muncy in reference to the ongoing MLB lockout, “but I’m not able to work with my guys on the [Dodgers’] staff. I can’t even talk to them, really. I’d probably be getting better treatment if I was getting worked on by them, but that’s just the unfortunate circumstances. It does give me a chance to get healthy, but I’m not getting the full extent of what I could be getting. I think even before the lockout, it was looking like I was going to be possibly ready for Opening Day. I think we’re still on that track right now.”

Although Muncy suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament, he adds that Tommy John was “never really on the table for me,” as every doctor who evaluated him agreed that surgery wasn’t necessary. Muncy notes that the injury was “really bad news, but it was the best bad news can get.”

A healthy Muncy is a vital piece to the Dodgers’ lineup — particularly now that Corey Seager has departed via free agency. The 31-year-old Muncy turned in a .249/.368/.527 batting line last season while notching new career-high marks in home runs (36), doubles (26) and plate appearances (592). With Seager now in Texas and Cody Bellinger in need of a rebound following a disastrous 2021 season, Muncy has become the Dodgers’ most reliable source of left-handed power.

Of course, the rumors connecting the Dodgers to Freddie Freeman have only increased throughout the offseason, and Muncy was more than happy to voice his support for that hypothetical match.

“Imagine how dangerous we’d be if we get him in that lineup,” said Muncy. “It makes me really excited. Maybe it’s not as much first base [for me], but I think I’ve told you several times I enjoy playing second base more. If we get the DH, that’s going to be a rotating position. We’re not going to have one set DH, so that’s a way we can utilize it — to get people off their feet and get them rest days without getting them out of the lineup. I don’t think we’ll have a set DH, but that just means we’ll be rotating all around the field, and that, to me, is when it’s really fun.”

Slotting Freeman into the heart of the order would likely mean more multi-position work for the likes of Muncy, Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux. With the expected implementation of the universal designated hitter, any of those names could  see some time at DH, as could third base stalwart Justin Turner. Muncy and Taylor both have a good bit of experience at the hot corner, and Lux notched one game there last year as well (in addition to getting his feet wet in the outfield). It’s all hypotheticals for now, although the general expectation is that whenever the lockout lifts, Freeman will act quickly in choosing his next destination.

Latest On Freddie Freeman

By and | at

Freddie Freeman’s ultimate free-agent destination has been one of the more fascinating storylines of the offseason. At the outset of free agency, most felt a reunion with the Braves was a fait accompli, but as Freeman’s stay on the market has lingered, there’s been increasing speculation about him signing elsewhere.

We can’t know when we’ll get a resolution, thanks to the ongoing lockout, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s an industry sense that Freeman will act quickly once the transaction freeze lifts. Specifically, Sherman suggests that within 48 hours of the freeze lifting, Freeman’s “path will be publicly known.” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested something similar, albeit without the specific timeline, when writing late last month that both Freeman and the Braves could “act quickly” post-lockout.

Freeman’s fate is a renewed talking point among Braves fans in the wake of this morning’s earnings report from Liberty Media, which owns the Braves, although the newly available public insight into the team’s financials likely has little to no impact on their pursuit of Freeman. It’s always been a question of whether ownership and/or the front office deems Freeman’s asking price to be a prudent long-term move for the organization, and the team knew those figures would be going public at this point.

Perhaps more interesting, however, is Sherman’s suggestion that one theoretical Freeman suitor, the Blue Jays, has been given ownership approval for a “large increase in payroll” even after the additions of George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios over the past year-plus. The Jays’ desire to add a left-handed bat to the mix isn’t exactly a new revelation; they reportedly pursued Corey Seager prior to his deal with the Rangers and have been speculatively tied to names like Kyle Schwarber and the since-retired Kyle Seager. The Jays were even linked to Freeman as far back as Nov. 30. More recently, Rosenthal said on Sportsnet that he expects the Jays to be involved on Freeman whenever the lockout lifts (video link).

Toronto is just one speculative alternative, and Freeman has also been heavily linked to the Dodgers and Yankees in addition to the incumbent Braves. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested in a recent appearance on the Michael Kay Show (audio link, with Freeman talk starting around 11 minutes) that the Mets at least “checked in” on Freeman prior to the lockout, although SNY’s Andy Martino wrote this morning that the chances of a Freeman/Mets deal coming together border on nonexistent. Olney, too, mentions the Blue Jays as a team that has inquired on Freeman (along with the Dodgers), and he more broadly discusses a growing industry sentiment that Freeman won’t return to the Braves.

The Braves’ best offer to this point has reportedly been a five-year, $135MM contract. He’s said to be eyeing a six-year pact on the heels of another outstanding season. Freeman followed up his 2020 NL MVP Award with a .300/.393/.503 showing and 31 home runs during the regular season, plus a .304/.420/.625 line with five home runs in 69 postseason plate appearances. It was yet another impressive season for the ever-reliable first baseman, who has a wRC+ of 132 or better (indicating he’s been at least 32 percentage points more productive than the league average hitter) every year since 2013.

It’s certainly possible the Braves and Freeman can yet bridge the gap that remained in talks through the imposition of the lockout. Yet Atlanta has at least explored some alternatives. The Braves reportedly looked into Anthony Rizzo as a free agent possibility, and they’ve been mentioned as a potential trade partner with the A’s on Matt Olson on multiple occasions. Sherman speaks with a few agents and one rival executive who speculate that Atlanta could even pivot to pursuing an Olson trade between the time the lockout is lifted and when Freeman signs. The executive notes that someone like Kyle Wright — a big league ready starter who was formerly a top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect — fits the mold of the near-MLB talent the A’s could look for in an Olson deal. Wright no longer has the trade value to center a package that could persuade the A’s to part with Olson, but he’d be a sensible option for Oakland to explore as an ancillary piece in talks with Atlanta.

That’s conjecture from people outside the Atlanta organization, to be clear. What president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff have planned for the post-lockout scramble won’t become evident until offseason activity actually resumes. Yet the growing industry chatter reinforces that Freeman remaining in Atlanta may not be the lock many anticipated as the Braves entered the offseason riding high on a World Series title, particularly as other possible suitors loom.

Liberty Media Reports Substantial Revenue Increase For Braves

By | at

As one of just two MLB clubs owned by a publicly traded company, the Braves are the rare team whose books are regularly opened to the public. That leads to some yearly insight into the team’s revenues and operating budget. This morning, Liberty Media announced its 2021 earnings, reporting $568MM in total Braves revenue, $104MM in OIBDA (operating income before debt and amortization) and a $20MM operating income (Twitter links via Eric Fisher of SportBusiness Group and Jeff Passan of ESPN, the latter of whom has screenshots of the report).

Those numbers are specific to the Braves, not Liberty Media as a whole, and they represent (as one would expect) marked increases over the previous year’s revenues, when the MLB season was played without fans and shortened to 60 games in length. In 2020, Liberty reported a total of $178MM in revenue and operating losses both in OIBDA (-$53MM) and operating income (-$128MM).

It’s worth pointing out, too, that the Braves and other MLB teams opened the season without home stadiums at full capacity — although the Braves were the first team to shift to full capacity near the end of April. Still, their season began with Truist Park at 33% capacity for their initial seven-game homestand and moved to 50% capacity for their second homestand — another seven-game set later in the month. Atlanta averaged 13,006 fans per game during that first homestand (per the attendance figures available at Baseball-Reference) and 19,224 fans per day in that second homestand (which included a seven-inning doubleheader). Over the remainder of the season, the Braves averaged 32,181 fans per game, according to those same attendance figures.

Of course, while the Braves, like every other team, surely lost some early-season gate revenue due to capacity restrictions of varying levels, the Braves also reeled in more postseason revenue than any other organization in the sport. Truist Park hosted eight playoff contests as the Braves eventually took home a World Series championship. Liberty Media lists 79 regular-season home games (accounting for a pair of doubleheaders) and eight postseason home games, with a reported $6MM in “baseball revenue” (not “profit”) per home game.

Future regular-season earnings for the Braves seem quite likely to rise — not only because they’ll very likely be able to open the 2022 season at full capacity but also because  the team’s 2021 success has paved the way for a considerable hike in ticket sales. Liberty Media president Greg Maffei said today that the Braves’ 2022 season ticket sales  are already the highest they’ve been since 2000 (Twitter link via Jeff Schultz of The Athletic). David O’Brien of The Athletic adds that premium seating at Truist Park has already been sold out.

The earnings report from Liberty Media comes at a time when eyes are more fixated on the financial component of the game than ever before. Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are deadlocked in labor strife that, at its core, boils down to how the two parties ought to divide the billions of dollars generated by the league on a yearly basis. Commissioner Rob Manfred has already taken a great deal of flak for his claims that the “return on those investments (into owning a baseball team) is below what you’d expect to get in the stock market,” and his critics have already meted out a fresh set of barbs on social media today in the wake of Liberty’s books being opened.

Braves fans, in particular, are taking note of the team’s financials, as an understandably vocal majority has grown frustrated with the lack of a new contract for franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman. Today’s report will do little to deter fans’ belief that the team can “afford” to re-sign Freeman, but that does not mean that ownership and/or general manager Alex Anthopoulos will make it happen at all costs. It’s never really been a question of whether the Braves have the pure funds to outbid the field, after all, but rather one of whether ownership is comfortable making a commitment of that magnitude and perhaps whether the front office deems it to be prudent.

With regard to the labor discord, both the league and the union will interpret the figures differently for the purposes of negotiations. Ownership will presumably point to the $20MM operating income. The union will likely more heavily weight the OIBDA and note that these figures do not include (as pointed out by Ben Nicholson-Smith, on Twitter) tax benefits/write-offs, baseball-adjacent revenues from The Battery (the mixed-use development surrounding Truist Park) or the general appreciation in franchise value. The Battery, according to Liberty’s figures, generated an additional $42MM in revenue and added another $7MM onto the Braves’ OIBDA (for a total of $111MM). At the end of the day, while it’s new information for fans and the MLBPA, the league has surely been aware of these figures and their timeline for release and already has a sense of the role the specifics will play in negotiations.

NL Notes: Giants, Chipper, Freeman, Cactus League

By | at

With the implementation of a universal DH growing in likelihood, NBC Sports’ Alex Pavlovic took a look at how Gabe Kapler’s Giants might handle the new position after the lockout. Pavlovic extrapolates from the team’s usage of the DH position in interleague play and in 2020 that the team would prefer to use the DH spot as a chance to bolster the lineup’s offense, not to give a quasi-off day to a regular position player. Accordingly, the resurgent Darin Ruf could see his playing time increase as his defensive limitations have limited him from being a true mainstay in Kapler’s starting lineup card.

With plenty of payroll maneuverability and a few Kris Bryant and Buster Posey-sized holes in the lineup, however, the possibility remains that the Giants splurge on a big bat to take the lion’s share of DH reps. Pavlovic speculates that free agents Kyle Schwarber or Joc Pederson could slot into the new position, owing to their typically strong numbers with the platoon advantage and ties to the team’s top executives. Should the team pass on either left-handed hitter, as well as come up short on their Seiya Suzuki pursuit or a Bryant reunion, a right-handed power bat could be signed to claim the DH spot. Nelson Cruz and Nick Castellanos remain open-market options for a team looking to keep its strong offensive performance in 2021 going, with the benefit of the DH position negating the need for either to suit up in the spacious Oracle Park outfield.

Some more baseball news from around the league…

  • Braves Hall of Fame third baseman and friend of the site Chipper Jones appeared on the Dukes & Bell podcast to offer some input on fellow Brave Freddie Freeman’s prolonged stay on the free agent market. Jones posits that Freeman is “probably a little frustrated [an extension wasn’t reached] in Spring Training last year” and acknowledges (correctly) that non-Atlanta teams are courting the first baseman as well. Of note to Atlanta fans however is Chipper’s comment that he and Freeman have often talked about the latter’s place in Atlanta history, and how his potentially-retired number would slide between Atlanta icons Dale Murphy and Bobby Cox.
  • Count Arizona city managers as another group taking issue with baseball’s delayed start to spring training. Bill Shakin of the Los Angeles Times documents how the MLB lockout has negatively impacted the host cities of baseball’s Cactus League, who are already reeling from limited tourism revenue the past few years due to the pandemic. Sites like Camelback Ranch, the Dodgers’ $300MM spring training ballpark in Glendale, are leased out to MLB teams for $1 a year with the express understanding that teams will drive tourism in the area. Due to clauses in the lease agreements signed by teams however, a certain number of home games are required to be played during spring training without the incurrence of legal penalty. The language of these clauses meant that the pandemic and other “acts of God” spared teams from any legal recourse being taken by host cities in recent years, but teams falling short of that game threshold due to the avoidable, league-induced lockout may not provide the same protection. It seems unlikely for the Dodgers and a handful of other teams to be kicked out of their Cactus League homes, but a lawsuit from Arizona cities looking to recoup lost hospitality industry funds may soon be the next legal storyline for baseball fans to follow.

Poll: Who Will Play First Base In The Bronx?

By | at

Following the 2020 season, first base didn’t look like it’d be an area of concern for the Yankees for the next few years. Luke Voit led the Majors with 22 home runs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, turning in a stout .277/.338/.610 batting line that was 53 percent better than the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+. A series of injuries derailed much of Voit’s 2021 season, however, prompting the Yanks to trade for Anthony Rizzo at the deadline.

Fast forward several months, and Rizzo is a free agent, Voit is a possible trade candidate, and the Yankees have been linked to big-fish names like Oakland’s Matt Olson and even free agent Freddie Freeman, who has yet to put pen to paper on a new deal in Atlanta. Everyone’s wondering who’ll play shortstop at Yankee Stadium in 2022, but first base is a question mark in its own right, so let’s take a quick look at each of the most plausible possibilities.

Luke Voit: There’s certainly an argument for sticking with the status quo and giving Voit another go-around. Last year was blown up by a torn meniscus that required surgery, an oblique strain that wiped out another month, and then continued knee troubles in the season’s second half. Voit, who turned 31 just yesterday, managed just eight more plate appearances in 2021 than he did in the 60-game 2020 sprint.

When he was healthy, Voit was a solid hitter, slashing .239/.328/.437 (111 wRC+) with 11 long balls, seven doubles and a triple in 241 trips to the dish. However, he also saw his strikeout rate spike to a career-worst 30.7% as he struggled through those injuries, and that batting line is a far cry from his aforementioned dominance in 2020.

In the three seasons leading up to 2021, Voit batted a combined .278/.371/.541 with 58 home runs, an 11.6% walk rate and a 26.4% strikeout rate in 905 plate appearances. He grades out as a poor defender at first base, but it’s easier to overlook the glovework if he’s hitting like he did from 2018-20. If he’s hitting like he did in 2021, that defense becomes harder to hide. Voit is controlled three more seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.4MM in 2022. He’s affordable and has plenty of upside with the bat — but there are red flags to consider as well. For his part, Voit told Dan Martin of the New York Post that he loves playing in New York and hopes to remain. He also acknowledged that a trade is possible.

DJ LeMahieu: The 33-year-old thrived with the 2019-20 Yankees, playing all over the infield and turning in a combined .336/.386/.536 showing with a tiny 12.7% strikeout rate. However, with a .268/.349/.362 batting line in 2021 (100 wRC+), LeMahieu had his own downturn at the plate this past season.

If LeMahieu were still hitting at his 2019-20 levels, that’d be more than enough offense even if he moved to first base on a full-time basis. If he’s “only” an average or slightly above-average hitter moving forward, then his versatility and ability to play other positions becomes more important.

The Yankees could still give LeMahieu the bulk of the work at first base in 2022, though it doesn’t seem like it’d be a top choice. It’s hard to see them doing so with Voit still on the roster, meaning they’d likely need to move Voit and spend the bulk of whatever resources they have remaining on other needs (shortstop, pitching, etc.).

Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo had a big start in New York, but by the time the season had run its course, his overall offensive production as a Yankee looked pretty similar to Voit’s 2021 output: .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+). Rizzo was an offensive force with the Cubs from 2014-19, batting a collective .284/.388/.513 in that time and topping 30 home runs in four different seasons. He’s since settled in as more of a 20 to 25-homer threat who makes good contact (15.1% strikeout rate) and draws some walks but is no longer an MVP-caliber hitter.

Two points in Rizzo’s favor over Voit: he’d give the Yankees a left-handed bat to help further balance a lineup that skews heavily toward right-handed hitters, and he’s also generally considered to be a strong defender. Defensive metrics were down on Rizzo in 2021, but he still graded out better than Voit typically has. That’s also the only time in his career he’s ever drawn negative marks for his glovework at first base.

Rizzo would be a costlier option, even though his stock has dropped from the point at which the Cubs were offering him extensions to keep him beyond 2021. MLBTR predicted a three-year deal at a rate of $15MM per season heading into the offseason, and even that was in part due to some of the narrative building up Rizzo as a difference-making clubhouse presence and leader. Post-lockout, an even shorter deal can’t be completely ruled out. He’ll still cost quite a bit more than Voit, but he won’t break the bank relative to, say…

Freddie Freeman: Braves fans and pundits alike are still a bit surprised things have gotten to this point with Freeman, the homegrown Braves icon whom most onlookers considered a slam dunk to spend his entire career in Atlanta. It’s still wholly plausible that after a protracted set of contract negotiations, Freeman returns to anchor the lineup at Truist Park, settling in as a lifelong Brave. At the same time, there have been reports that the Yankees, Dodgers and perhaps the Blue Jays could at least try to pry Freeman from Atlanta by offering the lengthier deal and/or weightier annual salary he’s thought to seek.

Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP, shook off some early-season doldrums in 2021 and finished out the year with a pretty typical (for him) .300/.393/.503 slash through 695 plate appearances. These endpoints are completely arbitrary, so take them with a grain of salt, but on May 7, Freeman finished the day with a .195/.326/.407 slash. From that point forth he hit .324/.409/.526.

Freeman will turn 33 in September, so the always-prominent concerns about paying for a player’s decline phase exist here as well. It might take six years and an annual salary in the $30MM range to sign him (or at least a salary well north of $30MM on a five-year term). The Yankees obviously have the resources to do that — particularly if they take an affordable approach at shortstop, as has been rumored — but there’s plenty of long-term risk.

Matt Olson: Perhaps the most-speculated trade match of the entire offseason, Olson-to-the-Bronx makes a good deal of sense. He’s an elite fielding left-handed bat who broke out as one of the game’s most well-rounded offensive players in 2021. Always a 30-homer threat — he swatted 29 homers in 2018 and 36 in 2019 — Olson slashed his strikeout rate from 26.3% all the way to 16.8% this past season. He did so while maintaining a walk rate north of 13%, and the resulting .271/.371/.540 slash and 39 home runs were career-best marks.

The A’s control Olson through 2023, but he’s projected to earn $12MM in arbitration (via Swartz) at a time when the A’s are reportedly aiming to reduce payroll. He’d give the Yankees a clear upgrade for at least two years, coming with an affordable (for them) salary in both seasons. It’s always possible that the Yankees could look into a long-term deal in the aftermath of a trade, too.

That said, Olson’s going to come with one of the heftiest asking prices of any player on the trade market. Yankees fans are surely loath to even consider the possibility of including a headliner such as top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe, but any trade scenario involving Olson is probably going to come at a prospect cost that upsets many fans. Olson will (or at least certainly should) command multiple players from the top echelon of any team’s farm system.

—

Those are just a few possibilities for the Yankees, but they seem to be the most plausible paths for GM Brian Cashman and his staff to tread. After Freeman and Rizzo, the free-agent market doesn’t offer a clear everyday option at first base who’d be an upgrade over Voit and LeMahieu. There are other speculative trade candidates to consider (e.g. Dominic Smith, Josh Bell), but none who promise the impact and clear upgrade that Olson would bring to the fold.

Let’s open this up for readers to discuss and to take their best guess (link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users) …

Yankees “Expected To Take A Run At” Signing Freddie Freeman

By | at

The Yankees were known to have interest in former NL MVP Freddie Freeman prior to the lockout, and it appears as though that interest is more than just simple due diligence.  According to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), the Yankees “love” Freeman and “are expected to take a run at” landing the free agent once the transactions freeze is lifted.

Since it still seems unclear whether Freeman will eventually re-sign with the Braves or perhaps look to join another team, it stands to reason that the Yankees can’t be truly ruled out of a Freeman pursuit until he actually signs a contract elsewhere.  Or, conversely, unless the Yankees were to make another big first base acquisition like trading for Matt Olson, or perhaps re-signing Anthony Rizzo.

What would make a Freeman pursuit so intriguing for New York, however, is how it would run counter to how the Yankees have pursued their business this offseason.  Prior to the lockout, the Yankees didn’t really do much of anything, with the common thinking being that the Bronx Bombers were perhaps waiting to see the terms of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement before making any major financial commitments.  Under how the luxury tax is currently calculated, for example, the Yankees already have more than a $226MM number projected for 2022.  Barring a major bump in the luxury tax threshold, the Yankees would certainly surpass the tax line by adding Freeman to their payroll.

The salary forecast notwithstanding, the Yankees were at least linked to such big names as Freeman and some of the top free agent shortstops.  However, the team was reportedly planning to wait out the shortstop market until after the lockout, just in case any of the remaining names (now Carlos Correa and Trevor Story) could be had on a shorter-term deal.

Whereas the Yankees think so highly of shortstop prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza that they don’t want to acquire a positional roadblock, their first base situation is a little more crowded in the present.  Luke Voit is coming off an injury-plagued season but is still the incumbent at the position, with DJ LeMahieu also in the mix when he isn’t playing third base.  The infield picture additionally consists of Gleyber Torres as the everyday second baseman,  and Gio Urshela playing third and backing up at shortstop behind a new (stopgap) shortstop that will also be taking an every day role.  Giancarlo Stanton is still expected to get the bulk of DH time, though since Stanton will get some usage in the outfield, that will open up the DH spot for one of the infielders to get more playing time.

Despite all the notable names here, Voit, LeMahieu, Torres, and Urshela are all coming off underwhelming seasons, so New York can’t just count on everyone to bounce back.  Plus, a proven star like Freeman (even entering his age-32 season) represents such a big upgrade that the Yankees might just prefer to make the signing and then figure out how the pieces fit after the fact.  For instance, Voit would seem like the most obvious trade candidate in this scenario, as Voit could be dangled to a first base-needy team that either missed out on Freeman or couldn’t approach his asking price in the first place.

It’s possible the Yankees might also be hoping they can land Freeman at something of a discount price amidst the post-lockout signing frenzy, though that could be more of a difficult play.  Teams like the Blue Jays and Red Sox have also been linked to Freeman, the Dodgers and Angels have been noted as possible fits given Freeman’s SoCal roots, and there is still some sentiment that Freeman will ultimately remain with the Braves after all.  MLBTR projected Freeman to land a six-year, $180MM deal this winter, and the first baseman is reportedly indeed looking for a contract in that range, though Atlanta (and presumably other clubs) has been hesitant to offer a sixth guaranteed year.

Like Correa and Story, Freeman has draft pick compensation attached since he rejected the qualifying offer.  Freeman is five years older than Correa and a little over three years older than Story, plus first base is less of a premium position than shortstop — but it could be argued that Freeman in some ways a safer investment, given how consistent he has been over the last decade.  If a team doesn’t want to pay Correa a reported $330MM or make a big nine-figure investment in Story coming off a down year, Freeman may appeal more to a team like the Yankees, who have multiple promising shortstops in the pipeline.

Locking up Freeman on a long-term deal might also be something of a hedge on the Yankees’ part in regards to an Aaron Judge extension.  Judge is scheduled for free agency next winter, and he’ll be turning 31 in April 2023.  It could be that the Yankees think committing big money to a 32-year-old Freeman through his age-36 or -37 season is a wiser move than paying Judge even more money through his 30’s.  Freeman missed time in the 2015 and 2017 seasons due to wrist injuries, but has generally been a very durable player throughout his career.  Judge, meanwhile, missed big portions of the 2018-20 seasons due to injury, though he stayed healthy in 2021.

Brian Snitker On Managerial Tenure, Freeman, Ozuna

By | at

Brian Snitker was at the helm of the Braves’ first World Series title in 26 years, leading the club to a championship in his fourth full season as skipper. A few months after securing the title, the 2018 National Manager of the Year chatted with Jeff Schultz of the Athletic.

The 66-year-old Snitker addressed his personal future, telling Schultz he’s still energized for another season in the wake of the World Series win. Asked how long he planned to continue managing, Snitker said he at least intends to work the remainder of his current contract. Though he was already under contract through 2023, the Braves exercised their 2024 option on his services shortly after the season.

As they prepare for what they hope to be a fifth consecutive division title, the Braves have plenty of roster maneuvering to figure out after the lockout. Hanging over the entire offseason has been the status of Freddie Freeman, who didn’t sign before the transactions freeze. Freeman and the Braves have reportedly haggled over whether his contract should include a sixth guaranteed year. With the possibility looming that he might depart, the Braves have been tied to Matt Olson and Anthony Rizzo as possible alternatives.

How ardently to pursue a Freeman reunion is a decision for ownership and the front office. Snitker, unsurprisingly, tells Schultz he’d prefer to keep the 2020 NL MVP around but pointed to the Braves’ ability to overcome losses of key players (most notably Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mike Soroka) last season. “Do I want Freddie back? Absolutely. Why wouldn’t I,” Snitker asked rhetorically. “But it may not happen. It’s the way business is. But I’m not freaking out about it right now. Last year, we lost Player A, and we kept going. We lost player B, C, D, E, F, and we just kept going. It’s what we do.”

Snitker also addressed the status of corner outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who was arrested in late May on domestic violence charges. Police at the time alleged they saw Ozuna strike his wife Genesis with a cast. A few months after his arrest, Ozuna agreed to partake in a domestic violence intervention program that could see his criminal charges eventually dropped. After spending a few months on the injured list, he was placed on paid administrative leave through the end of the 2021 season. Following the season, MLB announced a retroactive 20-game suspension for violation of the MLB – MLBPA Domestic Violence Policy, making him eligible to return to the field from the outset of 2022.

The Braves haven’t officially announced their plans for Ozuna, who is under contract through 2024. If Ozuna remains on the active roster, Snitker tells Schultz he’d have no qualms about putting him back into the lineup. “As far as I know right now, he’s going to be there,” Snitker said. “He went through the process, and he’s been cleared to play. That’s all I care about.“

Braves, A’s Discussed Matt Olson Prior To Lockout

By | at

When — or whether — the Braves will re-sign Freddie Freeman has been one of the most pressing issues on the minds of the Atlanta fan base for the better part of a year, but the 2020 NL MVP entered the current MLB lockout as a free agent with no real indication of progress toward a return to Truist Park on the horizon. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes this morning that there’s obvious incentive for either Freeman or the Braves to act quickly, one way or another, once the lockout finally ends. Most notably, Rosenthal reports that the Braves indeed spoke to the A’s about a potential Matt Olson deal prior to the lockout (as had been previously suggested), adding that the talks should not be written off as simple due diligence.

An early strike by the Braves to acquire Olson would register as nothing short of a stunner. The longstanding belief has been that despite the ostensible lack of traction in talks, Freeman will eventually reach a deal to return to the same team for which he’s played the first dozen seasons of a potential Hall-of-Fame career. It’s been even more widely expected that the A’s will trade Olson, particularly in the wake of comments from GM David Forst that the team will listen to offers on all of its top players (in preparation for a payroll reduction). However, Freeman’s legacy in Atlanta has made the Braves feel like a long shot, at best.

The 27-year-old Olson (28 in March) has been most prominently linked to the Yankees thus far in the offseason, though a good portion of the ink dedicated to that fit has been speculative in nature. The Rangers are among the other clubs to have been tied to Olson on the heels of a career year in Oakland.

Olson, the No. 47 overall draft pick back in 2012, dramatically reduced his strikeout rate this past season without conceding anything in terms of power or walk rate. He’d fanned in 26.1% of his career plate appearances heading into 2021, including a career-worst 31.4% clip in 2020, but slashed that mark to 16.8% this past season. Meanwhile, he walked at a 13.1% clip and slugged a career-best 39 home runs and 35 doubles — all while playing standout defense at first base. He’s controlled for another two seasons before free agency and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming year in the first of those two campaigns.

If the Braves were to make the unpopular decision to move on from Freeman, Olson would represent the best option — at least among plausibly available targets in free agency and on the trade market. Alternatives such as free agent Anthony Rizzo or trade candidate Luke Voit would be less impactful. That said, the $12MM projection on Olson’s 2021 salary is more than twice as much as this past season’s $5MM salary, and he’d be in line for a similarly massive raise for the 2023 campaign before hitting free agency in arguably an even better position than Freeman currently occupies.

While Freeman, of course, has the lengthier track record, Olson stands to reach the open market in advance of his age-30 season. Freeman will play the bulk of the upcoming season at 32 before turning 33 in September. Should Olson continue at his 2021 pace — or anything close to it — he could viably seek a contract of even greater length and/or greater total value than Freeman is currently seeking; an extension for Olson wouldn’t figure to be much cheaper, given his blend of youth, recent track record and relative proximity to the open market.

Also vital to consider is the enormous asking price that’s sure to be placed on Olson. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted a couple months back that the Athletics were “shooting for the moon” in any talks regarding Olson — understandably so. It’s increasingly rare in MLB to see a player of this caliber, with this much club control remaining, actually change hands on the trade market. Using FanGraphs’ wins above replacement as a loose barometer, Olson would be the third-best player (based on 2019-21 WAR) with multiple years of control remaining to be traded over the past three years. One of the two names ahead of him, Nolan Arenado, isn’t really a comparable given that he’d already been signed to a massive extension that impacted the nature of trade talks between the Rockies and Cardinals.

The other name ahead of Olson in those WAR rankings is perhaps the best and most direct recent comparable: Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto. The Phils surrendered one of baseball’s 15 best overall prospects (Sixto Sanchez), plus an immediate MLB-ready replacement (Jorge Alfaro, who’d recently ranked as a top prospect himself) and a solid mid-tier organizational arm in lefty Will Stewart. Starling Marte was traded from Pittsburgh to Arizona when he had two years remaining on his contract, netting the Bucs now-top-100 prospect Liover Peguero and pitching prospect Brennan Malone. However, Marte was 31 at the time of that trade and wasn’t coming off nearly as strong a season as Olson’s 2021 showing.

Simply put, a package to acquire Olson should considerably outpace what the Bucs received for Marte, and he arguably ought to fetch more than Realmuto did. That’s not to suggest that an Olson package would be a direct, apples-to-apples comparison with the Realmuto swap — but rather to illustrate the sizable value that a player of this caliber carries when he has multiple years of control remaining. Certainly, the packages would differ. For instance, Atlanta doesn’t have a prospect who’s currently as well-regarded as Sanchez was at the time that deal. The A’s could well have different priorities than the Marlins did, too; they’d surely require a premium headliner but have also been known to pursue volume-based approaches of MLB-ready talent rather than packages strictly composed of far-off, but high-upside minor leaguers. (See their return packages for Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray, Rich Hill/Josh Reddick, Ryan Madson/Sean Doolittle and more.)

If the Braves’ primary trepidation regarding a Freeman deal is the length of the contract, as has been oft-suggested, then an Olson acquisition may only be a slightly more palatable road to traverse — unless the front office is content to ship out heaps of young talent in exchange for a two-year rental and a subsequent draft pick (if the qualifying offer system even remains in place following the collective bargaining talks). Broadly speaking, the sorts of contracts currently being sought by Freeman and likely to be sought by Olson in the near future are the very types that Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has eschewed since being hired in Nov. 2017.

While the Braves slightly broke from their aversion to long-term commitments in last winter’s ill-fated re-signing of Marcell Ozuna (four years, $65MM), even that contract only materialized after Ozuna was unable to secure the fifth year he originally sought. Outside of that four-year pact, the Braves have shown a strong preference for shorter-term deals, often at premium annual values — a similar philosophy to that of the Dodgers, where Anthopoulos served as senior vice president of baseball ops prior to being hired in Atlanta. Will Smith’s three-year, $39MM deal is the next-largest free agent deal given out under Anthopoulos in Atlanta. The only times he’s gone to five years or more have been on wildly team-friendly deals for young stars Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies.

Whether the Braves are willing to break that mold for Freeman can’t be known, but it’s nevertheless notable that they’ve had talks with the A’s about a potential replacement. It’s perhaps even more telling that, as Rosenthal suggests, either Freeman or the Braves could move quickly in a new direction post-lockout after spending the past 12 months in a staring contest.

Why Haven’t The Braves Paid Freddie Freeman?

By | at

Though the consensus across the industry remains that Braves franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman will ultimately end up back in Atlanta, few expected Freeman to reach 2021 Opening Day — let alone the long-inevitable lockout — without a deal to keep the face of the franchise with the only club he’s ever known well into the backside of his career. Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos is notorious for playing his cards as close to the vest as any GM in the game, but it would at least appear that the chances of Freeman joining friend, mentor, and recent MLBTR chatee Chipper Jones in spending the entirety of a Hall of Fame-caliber career in Atlanta have reached an all-time low.

Based on the most recent reports of the state of talks between the Braves and their sweet-swinging lefty (which came via USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman in mid-November), player and team are hung up on both length and value, with the Braves reportedly offering a five-year, $135MM pact and Freeman holding out for something closer to six years and $200MM. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR projected Freeman would ultimately land a six-year, $180MM deal, a prediction that roughly accords with how the market played out ahead of the lockout.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observed in December, while there’s no obviously ideal fit for Freeman outside of Atlanta, there’s also no NL team with an established incumbent at DH, hypothetically expanding Freeman’s market to NL teams with an entrenched first basemen — including the Dodgers (Max Muncy/Cody Bellinger), the Cardinals (Paul Goldschmidt), the Giants (Brandon Belt), and the Mets (Pete Alonso) — should the new CBA include a universal DH. But not every team has the payroll flexibility to add Freeman, of course, and few see either first base (the least demanding defensive position) or DH (a non-defensive role) as positions worthy of major payroll commitments, both of which Anthopoulos is likely relying on as he attempts to wait out his star.

Three teams with money to spend (the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays) were reported to have kicked the tires on Freeman ahead of the lockout, but Tim notes reasons to remain suspect with regard to each: in his seven years at the helm in LA, Andrew Friedman has never given out a deal longer than four years to another team’s free agent; the Yankees have more urgent needs at shortstop and in the rotation; and the Blue Jays would have to either transition Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back to third base (where his defense would detract from his bat’s enormous value) or ask their young star to give up his glove entirely after an MVP-caliber season at first. Still, each of these clubs have the financial flexibility to pry Freeman from the Braves, and there’s no telling how any team will react to the free-agent feeding frenzy likely to follow the end of the lockout.

Fresh off a World Series run few expected, the Braves and their deep-pocketed owner clearly could afford to keep Freeman on the books (the Braves are owned by the Denver-based corporation Liberty Media, whose chairman, John Malone, has an estimated net worth of $8 billion, per MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald). Because Liberty Media is a publicly traded company, the Braves’ profit-and-loss numbers are a matter of public record. The company’s 2021 third quarter earnings report (which runs from July 1 to September 30, roughly the second half of the regular season) records $222MM in Braves-related revenue and an operating profit of $35MM while running a full-season payroll of just shy of $145MM (per Fangraphs’ RosterResource) — a profit figure that does not include the club’s massive playoff gate windfall, the flurry of championship merchandise sales, or the lucrative explosions in season ticket sales and sponsorship deals that commonly follow a title.

To be clear, though he was characteristically cagy about the details, Anthopoulos has stated publicly that the Braves will run a higher payroll in 2022, a feat they’re likely to accomplish even without a fresh Freeman deal. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts (which includes salary estimates for the Braves’ nine arbitration-eligible big-leaguers), the Braves have already allocated just under $129MM in salary commitments in 2022 and are still in need of at least one starting-caliber outfielder; of the four outfielders the team rotated in the playoffs (Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall), only Duvall is presently under contract, and no one is sure what to expect from superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. (returning from a major knee injury) or Marcell Ozuna (from administrative leave) – or, indeed, whether the latter will even remain with the club. Further, while Acuña has played solidly in several years in center field and Duvall managed it through the playoffs, each is likely better suited for a corner. One of the prospect trio of Cristian Pache, Michael Harris, and Drew Waters is likely the long-term answer in center, but none has yet proven himself ready to take over.

How the Braves choose to address this need (as well as for a possible veteran innings-eater to complement the stable of young arms they’ll slot in behind Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson) remains to be seen, but both Soler (projected to land a three-year, $36MM deal) and Rosario (two years, $15MM) are live possibilities. Presuming roughly $15MM of 2022 salary to address these needs would put the club right around last year’s payroll figure, and a $30MM annual commitment to Freeman on top would push them significantly beyond any number with which ownership has seemed comfortable in the past.

These are heady times in Atlanta, of course — and Liberty Media’s balance sheet makes it clear it’s a bump they could profitably absorb — but there are baseball reasons to consider. Freeman will be entering his age-32 season in 2022, after all, and the Braves will want to do everything they can to avoid the sort of millstone deal given to other first basemen (e.g. Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera) in the last decade or so. Still, Freeman has been a model of consistency, posting an OPS+ of 132 or higher in every season since 2013, and recent years have shown no signs of regression; the first baseman followed an astonishing run to an NL MVP behind a .341/.462/.640 line in the small sample of 2020 by essentially replicating his career numbers (.295/.384/.509) in 2021 (.300/.393/.503) despite an uncharacteristically slow start.

The slugger’s batted-ball numbers also show no serious warning signs; though his line-drive percentage fell to 25.1% in 2021 (his lowest since 2012), his hard-hit rate (the percentage of batted balls with exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) of 46.2% matched his career number exactly. His 2021 strikeout (15.4%) and walk (12.2%) also fall on the right side of his career numbers (19.7% and 11.7%, respectively).

A six-year deal would take him through his age-37 season (by which point Father Time is likely to have made at least some progress), but the recent precedent in Atlanta is on Freeman’s side. Though he never played in more than 143 games after his age-31 season, Jones remained a productive Brave through age 40, even winning a batting title in his age-36 season and lodging his final two All-Star appearances at ages 39 and 40, all while playing a much more taxing defensive position.

How Anthopoulos will choose to play the Freeman situation on the other side of the lockout remains to be seen, but he’ll almost certainly have to rethink his aversion to a sixth year to keep his face of the franchise around. The pre-lockout market proved favorable to high-end players; Marcus Semien, who’s only a year younger than Freeman and has a much less extensive track record of high-end offensive production, pulled down a seven-year deal, for instance, and he isn’t even expected to be asked to cover the premium position of shortstop. Braves fans are currently riding high off their first championship since 1995, but losing the one player they kept around following their post-2014 teardown would surely let quite a bit of air out of the balloon. Landing either native Atlantan Matt Olson (who’d cost the Braves a pretty penny in trade capital) or Anthony Rizzo (projected for a three-year, $45MM pact, and on whom the Braves have apparently kicked the tires) might soften the blow, but neither has the professional or personal stature Freeman has earned in his twelve years as a Brave.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top