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Braves Notes: Rotation, Jackson, Freeman

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During last year’s World Series run, the Braves found themselves mixing and matching at the back of the rotation behind Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Ian Anderson. Atlanta hasn’t done much to solidify that group this winter, leaving themselves to again count on a handful of less-proven arms at the back end.

Manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) over the weekend that righties Kyle Wright and Huascar Ynoa look like the favorites for the fourth and fifth spots. Ynoa always seemed to have a leg up after posting a 4.05 ERA/3.62 SIERA in 18 appearances last season. Wright, on the other hand, made just two regular season starts in the majors. The 26-year-0ld had a nice showing at Triple-A Gwinnett, where he worked 137 frames of 3.02 ERA ball. A former top five pick and highly-regarded prospect, Wright hasn’t yet had a ton of MLB success, but his minor league production and the quality of his arsenal still offer reason for Atlanta brass to believe in him as a long-term option.

The Braves are scheduled to play every day from their April 7 opener through April 20. With that heavy workload to start the year, Toscano writes the club could lean on a six-man starting staff early on. If that bears out, rookie Spencer Strider — who climbed four minor league levels last season to reach the majors in September — could assume the final spot, Toscano writes, with lefties Tucker Davidson and Kyle Muller also in that mix.

All those pitchers outside the Braves top three starters have minor league option years remaining, so any of that group could be sent back to Gwinnett throughout the season. They could also spill over into a multi-inning role out of the bullpen. Atlanta has one of the league’s strongest relief units on paper, but a key member has yet to pitch this spring.

Luke Jackson has been dealing with some forearm tightness, the team told reporters (including David O’Brien of the Athletic). The 30-year-old has been throwing on the side, so the Braves clearly aren’t concerned he’s facing a significant absence, but it’s not known whether he’ll have time to get into regular season game shape by next week. Jackson has been in the Atlanta bullpen for the past five years, but he had a particularly successful showing in 2021, pitching to a 1.98 ERA/3.75 SIERA in 63 2/3 frames.

While the Braves rotation looks much the same as it did last season, their position player shakeup was one of the stories of the offseason. Atlanta acquired Matt Olson and let Freddie Freeman walk in free agency. General manager Alex Anthopoulos and the front office were no doubt aware that decision would be a divisive one among the fanbase, and Freeman himself suggested in the immediate aftermath he was taken aback by the Olson trade. At his introductory press conference with the Dodgers, Freeman suggested Braves brass wasn’t as communicative as he’d expected they’d be throughout his stint on the open market. He also seemed to dismiss Anthopoulos’ assertion the Olson trade was the most difficult move of his executive career.

Chatting with the Journal-Constitution’s Gabriel Burns over the weekend, Freeman walked back those comments and took a brighter tone. The five-time All-Star said he chatted with the Braves baseball ops head last week and apologized for the comments he’d made at his introductory presser. “It helped to hear his side of things,” Freeman told Burns. “I won’t divulge what we talked about. But you can imagine what we talked about in three hours. It was good for us to now be good again. Now, when we see each other, we can just hug. I asked him to come to LA (for the series in April). I don’t think he was going to come to the LA series when they came out. I said, ‘Please, I want to see you and give you a hug because we did so many good things together.’”

Regardless of whether the fences are mended, the Braves and Dodgers figure to have plenty of memorable clashes over the coming seasons. The pair met in last year’s NL Championship Series, and they again look to be two of the top teams in the Senior Circuit. FanGraphs’ projections indeed forecast Los Angeles and Atlanta as the NL’s top two clubs heading into the year.

Dodgers Sign Freddie Freeman

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March 19: The year-by-year breakdown of Freeman’s contract have come in, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). The deal breaks down evenly over the six years, with Freeman set to make $27MM every season from 2022 through 2027. The deal includes $7MM of deferred money in 2022-24, and $12MM deferred in 2025-27.

March 18: The Dodgers have made the signing official, announcing that Freeman signed a six-year contract through the 2027 season. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports (on Twitter) that $57MM of the $162MM guarantee is being deferred, to be paid between 2028-40. Feinsand suggests that brings the real present value of the contract closer to $140MM.

March 16: The Dodgers are adding another star, reportedly agreeing to terms with Freddie Freeman on a six-year, $162MM contract. The Excel Sports Management client finds the sixth guaranteed year he’d been seeking, setting himself up to bolster an already loaded lineup.

Los Angeles finished tied for third as a team in wRC+ last season (excluding pitchers), with their collective .251/.339/.446 mark checking in 13 percentage points above the league average offense. Only the Astros and Giants fared better, while L.A. was tied with the Blue Jays. They’ve lost Corey Seager to free agency this winter, but Freeman steps right into the void as a left-handed, middle-of-the-order bat for manager Dave Roberts.

One could argue Freeman’s even an offensive upgrade over Seager, who himself is one of the best hitters in the game. Freeman has been a consistently excellent bat, not having posted a wRC+ lower than 132 in any season since 2013. That run has earned him five All-Star nods, three Silver Slugger Awards and six top ten finishes in NL MVP balloting.

Freeman has remained at the top of his game over the past few seasons. He obliterated opposing pitchers to the tune of a .341/.462/.640 line during the 60-game season in 2020. Among qualified hitters, only Juan Soto fared better by measure of wRC+, and Freeman earned a resounding victory in that year’s Senior Circuit MVP balloting. It was never realistic to expect him to repeat that kind of otherworldly performance over a full schedule, but he returned to his metronomically consistent ways in 2021.

Over the course of the season, Freeman appeared in 159 games and tallied 695 plate appearances of .300/.393/.503 hitting. He popped 31 homers, drew walks at a robust 12.2% clip and only struck out in 15.4% of his trips to the plate. Freeman began the year with a relatively pedestrian start by his lofty standards, but he got scorching hot from June onwards. Over the season’s final four months, he raked at a .329/.404/.520 clip. That production helped carry the Braves to their fourth straight division title, and Freeman picked up where he left off when the lights were brightest. He posted an OPS of .996 or better in all three playoff rounds, helping Atlanta to their first World Series title since 1995.

Coming off that championship, many expected Atlanta would strike quickly to ink the career-long Brave to another deal. Freeman and the club had already lined up on an extension once, a February 2014 eight-year pact that guaranteed him $135MM and delayed his first trip to the open market by five years. The Braves maintained they had interest in keeping Freeman in the fold, but the first baseman’s desire for a sixth year quickly became a stumbling block.

Atlanta, which had made Freeman a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, reportedly put forth a five-year proposal in the $135MM range. It’s believed they eventually nudged the guarantee around $140MM, but the organization seemed opposed to putting a sixth year on the table. Freeman turned 32 years old in September, and Braves brass apparently had real reservations about guaranteeing him a notable salary through his age-37 campaign.

Throughout the lockout, industry chatter picked up that Freeman and the Braves might be heading their separate ways. That became all but official when Atlanta struck a deal to acquire A’s star Matt Olson on Monday afternoon, then signed him to a $168MM extension the next day. Freeman penned a farewell to his former teammates, coaches and the Atlanta fanbase on Instagram this afternoon.

It’s not hard to see the Braves reasoning for letting Freeman walk. Olson is more than four years younger, so his extension only takes him through his age-35 season. There’s real risk in committing to any player into his late 30’s, and that’s particularly true given that Freeman needs to continue to hit at a very high level to be an elite player. He’s a solid defensive first baseman but unlikely to be a perennial Gold Glove winner into his mid-30’s.

Recent six-plus year contracts for free agents at the position haven’t been particularly fruitful. Each of the past four deals of six-plus years for first basemen — the Padres’ eight-year Eric Hosmer agreement, the Orioles’ bringing back Chris Davis on a seven-year pact, Prince Fielder’s nine-year contract with the Tigers, and the Angels’ ten-year investment in Albert Pujols — turned out to be missteps for the club.

Of course, that’s not to say Freeman’s deal with Los Angeles will end the same way. It’s shorter than those precedents, for one, and Freeman has a much more consistent track record than either Hosmer or Davis did at the time they signed their deals. There’s essentially nothing to nitpick in his offensive profile. Freeman doesn’t chase many pitches, and he makes plenty of contact on offerings both inside and outside the strike zone. He posts high-end exit velocities and hard contact rates annually. As is the case with most left-handed hitters, he’s better against right-handed pitching. Yet Freeman’s career .266/.348/.436 mark against southpaws demonstrates he’s more than capable of holding his own without the platoon advantage.

Even after the Braves dropped out, a few teams remained involved in the running for his services. The Red Sox, Blue Jays and Padres were superficially tied to Freeman in recent days, but it seems the surprising Rays may have proven one of the Dodgers strongest challengers in the end. Juan Toribio of MLB.com tweets that Tampa Bay made a “strong push” throughout the process, but L.A.’s willingness to acquiesce on the sixth year proved a deal-breaker.

It’s a return to Southern California for Freeman, an Orange County native. In addition to the financial and geographical appeal, he’ll step into a lineup that’s among the best in recent memory. It’s conceivable the Dodgers will roll out an Opening Day lineup consisting of Freeman, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Will Smith, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger and AJ Pollock. Betts, Freeman and Bellinger are each former league MVP’s. Eight of those nine players have garnered at least one All-Star selection; the one player who hasn’t yet gone to the Midsummer Classic, Smith, is among the top handful of catchers in MLB.

The Dodgers have assembled a similarly star-studded pitching staff, and the construction of this kind of roster required a sizable investment from ownership. Los Angeles blew past all three luxury tax tiers last season, incurring nearly $33MM in fees. They’re in line for another huge expenditure this year.

The exact financial structure of Freeman’s deal isn’t yet known, but contracts’ average annual values are used for luxury tax purposes anyhow. Adding $27MM to that mark pushes the 2022 CBT tab north of $277MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Because they exceeded the CBT last season, the Dodgers will be subject to escalating fees as a second-time payor. They’ll be taxed at a 30% rate for every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM, a 42% clip on overages between $250MM and $270MM, a 75% rate on overages between $270MM and $290MM and a 90% tax on all expenditures north of $290MM.

In addition to the financial cost, the Dodgers will take on some non-monetary penalties for signing a player who had rejected a qualifying offer. Because they paid the luxury tax last year, they’ll lose their second-highest and fifth-highest picks in the upcoming draft and be stripped of $1MM in international signing bonus space. The Braves, as a team that neither received revenue sharing nor paid the luxury tax, will receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B in the upcoming draft. Those selections typically fall in the 70-75 overall range.

That pick will be little consolation to Braves fans disheartened by Freeman’s departure, although that the organization replaced him with a hometown star of their own in Olson should soften the blow. Even when it became clear he’d be leaving Atlanta, however, there were presumably many Braves fans hoping he’d wind up somewhere other than L.A.

Freeman moves on from the reigning World Series winner to join the team he played an instrumental role in defeating in last year’s NL Championship Series. His departure from the defending champs to sign on with what appears to be MLB’s best team adds plenty of intrigue to what’ll be an entertaining battle for control in the National League.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the Dodgers and Freeman were making progress on a deal that would guarantee $150+MM. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the sides were discussing a six-year deal in the $160MM range. Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Freeman and the Dodgers were in agreement on a six-year, $162MM contract.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Freddie Freeman’s Market

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It’s been apparent since the Braves acquired and extended first baseman Matt Olson that Freddie Freeman is likely headed elsewhere in free agency, but Freeman made that all but official this afternoon when he thanked Braves fans and bid them and the organization farewell on Instagram this afternoon.

“…Thank you from the bottom of my heart,” wrote Freeman. “It has been a blast to have you cheer for me and I hope I was able to bring smiles to a lot of your homes over the years. I gave everything I had day in and day out and I hope you guys saw that as well. Although our time has come to an end, I look forward to seeing and playing in front of you all again. When that time comes, I hope you remember all the wonderful memories we made together. I love you Braves Country! Champions Forever!”

It’s not clear whether Freeman’s message is a portent for an agreement with a new team or simply an acknowledgement that the first chapter of his storied career has drawn to a close. Several possible landing spots for the 2020 NL MVP have dried up in the past few days, as the Braves not only essentially replaced him with Olson, but the Yankees struck up a deal to bring Anthony Rizzo back to the Bronx.

Reports recently have suggested that Freeman remains of interest to the Dodgers, Red Sox, Rays and Padres, although each destination comes with its own reasons for some degree of skepticism. Freeman has reportedly sought a six-year deal that would carry him through his age-37 season, and the Dodgers tend to prefer higher annual salaries and shorter terms than that six-year target. To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this week that L.A. is “believed” to have offered a four-year deal to Freeman that includes a sizable annual value.

Looking to Freeman’s other reported suitors, the Padres have spent more than a year trying to move Eric Hosmer, who still has four years and $59MM remaining on his contract. As explored more in depth here at MLBTR yesterday, it’s difficult to see that deal coming together without several other pieces falling into place first.

The Red Sox have been comfortable exceeding the luxury tax in the past, but they opted not to do so and have at pair of interesting young first base/designated hitter types already in Bobby Dalbec and prospect Tristan Casas. It’s doubtful that either would stand in the way of Boston signing a player of Freeman’s caliber, but the luxury tax concerns present a more feasible roadblock. Still, SNY’s Andy Martino tweeted this morning that the Yankees believe their archrivals’ interest in Freeman is sincere.

As for the Rays, their interest is said to be real but also comes with the most obvious hurdles of the bunch. Tampa Bay’s payroll is perennially among the lowest in the sport, and while the long-term books are exceptionally clean (as noted when first examining their reported offer), a free agent of Freeman’s caliber heading to Tampa is entirely without precedent. It was a surprise several years ago to see the Rays reel in Charlie Morton on a $30MM guarantee that spanned two seasons; Freeman could command an annual salary in that range over a longer term. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted this morning that Tampa Bay has remained “aggressive” in its surprising pursuit of Freeman, but an actual deal between the two parties would still register as one of the largest free-agent surprises ever.

The lack of obvious suitors for a massive five- or six-year commitment and the recent decisions by the Braves and Yankees to move on has created a sense among some executives in the game that Freeman’s camp overplayed its hand, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets. That’ll be determined by Freeman’s ultimate contract, of course, but his path to the massive contract that once appeared to be a given looks a bit less clear now than it did when the Yankees and Braves were still in the market for his services.

Padres Reportedly Interested In Freddie Freeman

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Earlier this morning, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that the Red Sox had jumped into the bidding on star first baseman Freddie Freeman, and just hours later, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes that the Padres, too, are looking into the possibility of signing Freeman.

The level of sincerity behind the Padres’ apparent interest isn’t clear. On the one hand, Freeman would unequivocally deepen their roster and bolster their lineup in a major way. On the other, the Padres already have a pricey first baseman, Eric Hosmer, whom they’ve been trying to trade in an effort to escape the remaining four years and $59MM on his contract. There’s also the fact that one of Freeman’s reported suitors, the Dodgers, just so happen to be a division rival for the Padres. Making an effort to drive up the price wouldn’t be out of the question.

That said, it’s worth taking a peak at just how a potential Freeman signing would impact the Padres, both in 2022 and in the long-term. The impact on the actual 2022 payroll would depend on contract structuring, but even a backloaded deal would boost the Padres’ currently $200MM payroll substantially.

Looking beyond the current season, the contracts of Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Fernando Tatis Jr., Drew Pomeranz, Ha-Seong Kim, Nick Martinez and Luis Garcia total about $114MM in guaranteed money. That doesn’t include player options for Jurickson Profar and Robert Suarez, which could be exercised — nor does it include arbitration raises to the likes of Dinelson Lamet, Austin Adams, Tim Hill, Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. Factoring in all of that, a Freeman deal could take reasonable 2023 payroll projections north of $160MM.

The broader concern would be the luxury-tax obligations associated with a Freeman deal. If he is indeed seeking something in the vicinity of $30MM annually, that’d send the Padres back into luxury-tax territory for what would be a second straight season. The Padres currently have about $217MM in luxury obligations, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, and there’s no getting around the huge CBT hit associated with any potential Freeman deal.

In fact, even if the Padres were able to move the entirety of Hosmer’s contract — which seems unlikely without at least taking some money back on in return — the subtraction of that $18MM luxury hit would only narrowly drop the Padres below $200MM in total. In other words, even if San Diego somehow traded all of Hosmer’s deal and replaced him with Freeman, the new contract would still push the Padres right back up against CBT precipice.

It’d be a surprise to see San Diego draw up a five- or six-year offer at top-of-the-market dollars to bring in Freeman when they’re still trying to unload Hosmer’s contract, but Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is never one to shy away from an unexpected move.

Red Sox Reportedly Showing Interest In Freddie Freeman

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The Freddie Freeman bidding has a new entrant, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Red Sox have joined the fray. They’ll join a field that has already included the Yankees, Blue Jays, Dodgers and, somewhat surprisingly, the Rays. Tampa Bay reportedly made an offer to Freeman prior to the lockout, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported last night that the Rays remain interested. However, he suggests their interest is limited to a shorter-term deal — presumably at what would be a massive annual rate. That doesn’t appear too likely, of course, given the interest from larger-market clubs with deep pockets. As of yesterday afternoon, reports indicated that the Yankees were “pessimistic” about their chances of signing Freeman, while other clubs viewed the Blue Jays as a serious threat.

A Freeman signing would give the BoSox an elite heart-of-the-order grouping, as he’d join Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez in composing the team’s two-through-five hitters. Adding Freeman to the fold would likely mean supplanting 26-year-old Bobby Dalbec at first base, though even with his big finish to the 2021 season, Dalbec isn’t going to serve as a roadblock to a superstar of Freeman’s caliber. Dalbec struggled through a dismal first half before slashing .269/.344/.611 in his final 195 plate appearances, although he did so in spite of a 31.3% strikeout rate and still finished the year with an overall batting line of .240/.298/.494.

The larger question for the Red Sox is likely a matter of payroll — more specifically, the luxury tax. Last week’s newly ratified collective bargaining agreement bumped the tier-one threshold for penalization from $210MM to $230MM, but the Sox are already at about $209MM of luxury obligations (via Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). Adding Freeman to the mix would send Boston soaring past that mark. The Sox have paid the tax in the past, but more recently ownership has been staunchly against doing so. Freeman is the type of player for whom many clubs might consider an exception, but it’s not yet clear whether Boston would feel that way or whether any Freeman interest is contingent on moving other salary.

If the Sox are indeed willing to pay the tax, it’d likely only be a one-year dip into those waters. Boston’s luxury obligations will plummet following the season, dropping from the current $209MM level all the way to $75MM. That doesn’t even include the possibility of Bogaerts opting out of his six-year, $120MM contract — which seems quite likely and would further shave another $20MM from that luxury ledger. The Red Sox have Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Kevin Plawecki all coming off the books following the 2022 season.

Again, that doesn’t make it any kind of lock that they’ll be comfortable putting forth a multi-year deal of six years in the $30MM annual value range, which is generally believed to be where Freeman’s asking price currently lies. But there’s a clear on-paper fit and the long-term payroll flexibility to make it work, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted when picking the Sox to sign Freeman back in November.

Wherever  Freeman lands, it’s become quite clear that he’s set to move on from the only organization he’s ever known. The Braves acquired Matt Olson in a trade with the Athletics yesterday — a move that president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos called the toughest transaction of his lengthy executive career while fighting back tears (video link via Bally Sports). Anthopoulos noted multiple times that he couldn’t “get into specifics” as to why the deal was so difficult to make, though the implication was clear.

Freddie Freeman Rumors: Monday

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Freddie Freeman’s 12-year run with Atlanta came to a close Monday afternoon, as the Braves acquired slugging first baseman Matt Olson from the Athletics.  With the Yankees pessimistic on their chances of signing Freeman, here’s the latest…

  • The Blue Jays have conveyed serious interest in Freeman, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.  On Friday Morosi suggested Freeman’s signing was imminent and said the Dodgers were making a strong push.
  • The Rays and Jays “have remained aggressive” on Freeman, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter thread) notes that rival clubs perceive the Jays as a threat to utilize some of their available payroll space to make a splash on the offense. He also suggests the Yankees could make sense as a Freeman suitor, but notes that it’s unclear if ownership wants to take on a long-term deal when they’re hoping to work out a long-term extension with Aaron Judge at some point down the line.

Athletics Trade Matt Olson To Braves

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The Freddie Freeman era in Atlanta appears all but over. The Braves announced Monday that they’ve acquired All-Star first baseman Matt Olson from the Athletics in exchange for a hefty package of minor league talent: center fielder Cristian Pache, catcher Shea Langeliers and right-handers Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes. While some Atlanta fans may hold out hope that the implementation of the universal designated hitter leaves open the possibility for both Olson and Freeman to coexist on the same roster, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos implied otherwise when discussing the trade with reporters. Anthopoulos held back tears today, calling the Olson trade the hardest transaction he’s ever had to make — a clear allusion to the team’s plans for Freeman (or lack thereof).

Matt Olson | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

As is the case with Anthopoulos, the acquisition of Olson will be a bittersweet one for many Braves fans. While Olson is an elite first baseman with Atlanta roots, it’s long been difficult to fathom Freeman, the 2020 National League MVP, ultimately moving on and signing with a new team. Freeman was a homegrown star in every sense of the word, going from No. 78 overall draft pick in 2007 to a five-time All-Star, league MVP and World Series champion. He’s spent the past 12 seasons in Atlanta, thanks in large part to an eight-year, $135MM contract extension that kept him in Braves gear long beyond his arbitration years. Freeman has become synonymous with the Braves, but it now appears all but certain that this is a changing of the guard.

As far as replacements for Freeman go, it’s tough to dream up a better option than the Atlanta-born Olson, however. Set to turn 28 later this month, Olson is a two-time Gold Glover at first base who just wrapped up a career year that netted him his first All-Star nod. Over the past three years, Olson has cemented himself as one of the premier power threats in the game, swatting 89 home runs and 65 doubles while playing his home games in the cavernous Oakland Coliseum. This past season, Olson shed the “strikeout-prone” label when he cut his strikeout rate from 27.5% in 2019-20 all the way down to 16.8%. He did so while maintaining an excellent 13.1% walk rate and turning in the finest overall season of his career: .271/.371/.540 with a career-high 39 home runs.

Of course, Olson is far more than your prototypical bat-first, slugging first baseman. He’s a two-time Gold Glove winner who happens to lead all Major League first basemen with 34 Defensive Runs Saved dating back to 2017 (despite playing in just 59 games that year). Olson’s 22.8 Ultimate Zone Rating is also tops among first basemen in that span, and his 15 Outs Above Average (per Statcast) rank sixth in that same span. There’s an argument to be made that bittersweet as the change might be for Braves fans, Freeman is being replaced by the most well-rounded, prime-aged first baseman in the game.

The Braves will control Olson for at least the next two seasons, as he’s currently sitting on four-plus years of Major League service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $12MM salary for Olson this coming season, and he’ll be due one more raise on that sum before qualifying as a free agent after the 2023 season. Of course, the Braves could well look to sign Olson to a long-term deal that would keep him with his hometown club far longer than those remaining two years of control. Atlanta reportedly balked at going six or more years on a potential Freeman extension, but Olson is four and a half years younger than Freeman, which could alleviate concerns about an eventual decline in the late stages of a long-term deal.

Just as it’s difficult for the Braves’ faithful to process the change, Athletics fans are surely reeling from the news as well. While periodic sell-offs of this nature have become second nature for Oakland diehards, the current core is one of the more talented and recognizable groups in recent memory. Olson was a fan favorite and beloved player at the Coliseum, but his departure begins to pave the way for what the A’s hope will be its next core group.

Pache and Langeliers are the true headliners here, though all four prospects ranked among the top 15 or so in the Braves’ farm. Pache, 23, has seen his stock dip a bit since being ranked as baseball’s No. 7 prospect (per Baseball America) in the 2020-21 offseason. That’s due both to a poor showing at the plate in the big leagues and a fairly pedestrian output in Triple-A Gwinnett. Pache received just 68 big league plate appearances in ’21 and batted .111/.152/.206, though it’s tough to glean much of anything from such a small sample. His work in Triple-A was more encouraging but not on par with his strong 2019 campaign in Double-A; in 353 trips to the plate with Gwinnett this past season, Pache batted .265/.330/.414.

Cristian Pache |Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Offense has never been projected to be Pache’s primary selling point, however. That’s not to say he couldn’t develop into a solid big leaguer at the plate, of course, but much of his prospect allure has come from the fact that he’s a plus runner who received 80 grades for his defensive upside in the outfield. Considering the huge space he’ll now have to patrol at the Coliseum, that’s a particularly valuable skill to have. And, if Pache can turn in something close to his lifetime .280/.330./406 slash from the minor leagues, he ought to be able to solidify himself as a highly valuable big leaguer before long. Pache is still near universally regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects.

Turning to the 24-year-old Langeliers, he’ll give the A’s another potential high-end catcher before long. Sean Murphy is the incumbent option there and had a fine season in ’21, but Langeliers was the No. 9 overall pick in 2019 and is fresh off a .256/.339/.494 showing between Double-A and a brief stop in Triple-A. Baseball America ranked Langeliers 54th among all prospects, calling him an excellent defender with a “cannon” arm and above-average power. That he reached Triple-A already in 2021, albeit only for five games, speaks to his proximity to the Majors. Langeliers also ranks as baseball’s No. 70 prospect at FanGraphs and No. 80 at The Athletic.

With Langeliers now perhaps the future behind the plate, Oakland will at least have the ability to more comfortably listen to offers on Murphy if they see fit. Murphy is controlled another four seasons and just won a Gold Glove while popping 17 home runs, but he’ll reach arbitration next year — around the time Langeliers is likely to be ready for an everyday audition at the big league level.

As for Cusick and Estes, both are well regarded in their own regard, even if they haven’t received the type of national attention that Pache and Langeliers have. Cusick was Atlanta’s first-round pick just last summer, joining the organization after posting huge strikeout totals during his sophomore and junior seasons at Wake Forest (37% overall). The 6’6″, 235-pound righty sits in the upper 90s with a heater that has touched 102 mph.

Command was an issue for Cusick in college, but in 16 1/3 innings with Low-A Augusta last season, Cusick punched out more than half of the 67 hitters he faced while issuing just four walks. It remains to be seen whether he can sustain those gains, but there’s huge potential if he can indeed refine his command. If not, a triple-digit fastball and this type of bat-missing ability will surely play up as a potential late-inning reliever. He was generally regarded among the system’s 10 best overall prospects.

As for the 20-year-old Estes, he was the Braves’ 16th-round selection in 2019 but has quickly elevated his profile. Drafted out Paraclete High School in Lancaster, Calif., Estes had a nondescript pro debut that lasted 10 innings in ’19, didn’t pitch due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and then broke out with a monster year as Cusick’s teammate in Low-A Augusta. Through 20 starts, a total of 99 innings, Estes notched a 2.91 ERA with a 32.1% strikeout rate and a 7.3% walk rate. He was an extreme fly-ball pitcher in 2021 (33.2% grounder rate), but that’s not a huge concern for the A’s, given their spacious home environs. Estes’ success came despite being nearly three years younger than the average competition he faced. While he and Cusick are both at least one, if not two full seasons away from making a big league impact, they both add some considerable upside to an Oakland system that was generally regarded among the thinnest in the sport.

“This is the cycle for the A’s,” Forst said back in early November when addressing reports of a likely payroll reduction. “We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.” Those foreboding words have already manifested in the trade of two popular and productive A’s stars, and there’s little sense expecting that Oakland will put a foot on the brakes now. They’ve secured four new pitching prospects and a pair of ballyhooed close-to-the-Majors position players already (Pache, Langeliers), and things are likely just getting started.

As for the Braves, the acquisition of Olson will turn the page on perhaps the team’s most iconic player since Hall of Famer Chipper Jones. The 2020 MVP crowning for Freeman was a high note in his career, but the team’s storybook World Series run, with Freeman at the heart of the charge, will make an even more fitting end to this chapter in the team’s history. Olson will have major shoes to fill at Truist Park, but so long as he carries on at something near the .254/.348/.515 pace he’s tallied over his past 564 Major League games, the Braves will be in good hands.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that trade and all five players involved (Twitter thread).

Yankees Pessimistic On Chances Of Signing Freddie Freeman

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The Yankees are pessimistic on free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.  The Yankees have also thus far said no to an ask of top prospect Anthony Volpe plus more for Oakland first baseman Matt Olson, Heyman explains.  As such, a reunion with free agent Anthony Rizzo is suggested to be “the most realistic” first base addition for the Yankees.

Three days ago, Heyman wrote that the Dodgers and Braves are the most likely landing spots for Freeman, who reportedly has sought a six-year deal.  The Yankees have since revamped the left side of the infield, shipping out Gio Urshela and adding Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins.  The Yanks still have Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres on the roster, so further adjustments may be coming.

Volpe, ranked by Baseball America as the tenth best prospect in the game, isn’t necessarily an unreasonable request by the A’s.  Recent precedent for trading a five-WAR type player in the offseason with two years of control is rare, but the Marlins were able to land Sixto Sanchez and others when shopping J.T. Realmuto three years ago.  Other clubs known to be in the mix for Olson include the Guardians, Rangers, Padres, and naturally the Braves if they lose Freeman.

Rizzo posted a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees in 200 plate appearances after coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline.

Dodgers Reportedly “Making Strong Push” For Freddie Freeman

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8:08pm: Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweets that the Dodgers and Braves are Freeman’s most likely landing spots. He hears that Atlanta’s offers have been in the five-year, $140MM range.

7:32pm: Morosi adds that Freeman is expected to make his decision within the next 24 hours and could do so as soon as this evening.

7:04pm: The Dodgers are “making a strong push” for star first baseman Freddie Freeman, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Los Angeles has put a formal offer on the table, Morosi adds.

Freeman is among the top free agents on the market, and it’s generally been expected he’d sign quickly in the wake of the end of the lockout. The Dodgers are among the teams who have been linked to the 2020 NL MVP, as are the incumbent Braves, Yankees, Blue Jays and — most surprisingly — Rays.

Many have long expected that Freeman, a career-long Brave, will re-sign with Atlanta on a long-term deal. Calls for the Braves to keep him around particularly mounted after the club wrapped up a World Series title in November. Freeman, of course, played no small part in Atlanta’s first championship in 26 years; after hitting .300/.393/.503 during the regular season, he posted an OPS above .990 in all three playoff rounds.

However, the Braves have reportedly been unwilling to offer a sixth guaranteed year to the 32-year-old first baseman. Freeman didn’t agree to terms with anyone before the lockout, and rumors swirled throughout the work stoppage that he and the club may go in different directions. There’s been no shortage of interest in Freeman’s services, and the Braves have at least looked into the possibility of trading for A’s star Matt Olson or signing Anthony Rizzo as contingency plans.

Of course, it’s far from a lock that Freeman will wind up departing. That the Dodgers are making a serious run at the five-time All-Star is no surprise. Atlanta could yet look to make another push themselves, and there’s no indication an agreement between Freeman and Los Angeles is imminent.

The first base market figures to see quite a bit of action in the coming days and weeks. Freeman and Rizzo have yet to sign. It’s widely believed the A’s will move Olson before the start of the season as they reportedly embark on a payroll-cutting effort. The Yankees have been tied to first base upgrades this offseason, which might make 2020 home run champ Luke Voit a realistic trade candidate as well.

Rays Made Offer To Freddie Freeman Pre-Lockout

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Even as rumors regarding the possibility of Freddie Freeman leaving the Braves have increased since the beginning of the offseason, big-market clubs with deep pockets — Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays — have been viewed as the primary threats to lure him away. However, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the Rays not only showed interest in Freeman but made him an offer prior to commissioner Rob Manfred’s implementation of the current lockout.

It’s surprising to hear of the Rays even making any degree of play for a free agent of Freeman’s caliber, and many fans will surely poke fun and suggest comically small numbers from Tampa Bay. However, it’s at least worth breaking down the possibility, because when looking ahead at the Rays’ long-term payroll ledger, a massive commitment to Freeman might not be as far-fetched as it sounds.

The 2022 Rays are currently projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez for an $83MM payroll. They’re also expected to field offers for veterans like Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow, among others, following the lockout, which could drop that number back below the team’s $77MM Opening Day record. The mere mention of “franchise record payrolls” in the $77-83MM range serves to underscore just why fans would mock the notion of a Rays/Freeman match, but look ahead to the following season and it becomes easier to envision.

Beginning in 2023, the Rays only have three contracts on the books. Second baseman/outfielder Brandon Lowe will earn $5.25MM, lefty Brooks Raley is guaranteed $4.5MM, and burgeoning star Wander Franco is owed $2MM. The combined $11.75MM does not account for arbitration-eligible players, and the Rays do have their fair share of names who could elevate the total payroll.

Glasnow, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.8MM in 2021, will repeat that salary in 2022 if he doesn’t pitch this year while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Southpaw Ryan Yarbrough will be in line for a decent raise on top of this year’s $4.4MM projection. If he struggles in 2022, he’ll be a non-tender candidate. If he rebounds from an ugly 2021, he could emerge as a trade candidate, given the subsequent raise and the Rays’ considerable pitching depth. Meadows will be due a solid pay bump over this year’s $4.3MM projection, but again, he’s already seen as a trade candidate. Margot is a free agent after the 2022 season.

Beyond that group, the Rays’ arbitration commitments should generally be modest. Yonny Chirinos is projected at $1.2MM this season and will earn a raise depending on how well he rebounds from 2020 Tommy John surgery. Backup catcher Francisco Mejia will be owed a raise, but he’s only projected at $1.5MM himself this year. Ji-Man Choi will be in line for one final bump over this coming year’s $3.2MM salary, but he could very well be moved if the Rays pulled off a shocker and signed Freeman.

In other words: the Rays may have an enormous arbitration class in 2022, but that’s not likely to be the case in 2023. Trades, non-tenders and free agency will subtract from the current group, and the only players set to reach arbitration in ’23 are relievers Pete Fairbanks, Colin Poche, Ryan Thompson and JT Chargois. Notable names like Randy Arozarena, Drew Rasmussen and Luis Patino are on track to hit arbitration in 2024, but at that point the top end of the arb class will have thinned out.

The conventional wisdom behind a small-market club like Tampa Bay being unable to “afford” a mega-deal for someone of Freeman’s caliber is that it’d restrict them from making further additions. Tying up such a large percentage of team payroll in a single player can obviously be hazardous. However, the Rays’ next nucleus already appears more or less in place and isn’t likely to be expensive anytime soon. Franco signed an 11-year, $182MM contract extension and won’t see his salary reach peak levels until 2028 — seven years from now (and, one year shorter than the six years reportedly sought by Freeman).

The Rays’ rotation was something of a patchwork group in 2021, but looking ahead they’re hopeful that a combination of Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz and Patino can lead the charge. McClanahan and Baz won’t reach arbitration until 2025. Tampa Bay has several other high-end pitching prospects coming: Taj Bradley, Seth Johnson and Cole Wilcox among them. The organization likely still has high hopes for oft-injured former top pick Brendan McKay as well.

Looking up and down the lineup, Franco has shortstop locked down, and Brandon Lowe is on a team-friendly deal of his own at second base. Lowe is earning $4MM in 2022, $5.25MM in 2023 and $8.75MM in 2024. The Rays hold club options of $10.5MM and $11.5MM thereafter. If at any point the team believes Lowe’s contract to be unwieldy, he could be flipped in a trade, with top prospect Vidal Brujan stepping up at second base. Brujan could factor into the infield or outfield mix at other positions before then, and Taylor Walls gives Tampa Bay another solid, MLB-ready infield prospect to consider. Top outfield prospect Josh Lowe, meanwhile, seems likely to step into center field before long — perhaps even on Opening Day, if Kiermaier’s contract is moved post-lockout.

Obviously, not all of these players will turn into stars or even regulars, but for the next several seasons, the Rays can build their roster around the likes of McClanahan, Baz, Patino and Rasmussen on the pitching side and around Franco, Arozarena, both Lowes and perhaps Brujan on the position-player side. No one from that group will reach arbitration until at least 2024 (most not until 2025), and the Rays will probably succeed when it comes to persuading at least one or two of their pre-arbitration stars to sign a club-friendly extension. Tampa Bay doesn’t even have $15MM in guaranteed contracts on the books in any individual season from 2023-25 right now — a three-year span that would represent years two, three and four of a theoretical Freeman deal.

None of this is to say that a Freeman-to-the-Rays scenario is likely. Calling it a “long shot” possibility might be charitable, in fact. Tampa Bay will face steep competition from the incumbent Braves as well as a host of large-market teams looking to add a marquee bat to the lineup, and the Rays’ margin for error on a contract of this magnitude is infinitesimal compared to that of a team like the Dodgers, Yankees or even the Braves. But, when considering the Rays’ minimal long-term commitments and the wealth of MLB-ready, pre-arbitration talent they already have in the fold, it’s at least possible to squint and see how they could fit Freeman into the mix — even if he’s earning upwards of $30MM annually.

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