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Francisco Cordero

Reds Notes: Cozart, Janish, Cordero

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The Reds' top pick is currently protected, which means there's a good chance they'll be able to sign a Type A free agent this offseason without surrendering a first round pick in 2012 (they'd lose a second rounder instead). Some updates on the Reds, who beat the Mets tonight…

  • John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer explains that the Reds are hoping Zack Cozart emerges as their starting shortstop in 2012. They're likely to have a veteran backing up at short (though it seems unlikely that Edgar Renteria will return), so there's not necessarily room for Paul Janish on next year's club.
  • Reds closer Francisco Cordero told Fay that the Reds called his agent about a new deal and talked to him about the possibility as well. The Reds have a $12MM option for Cordero in 2012, though as MLBTR's Dan Mennella showed this month, the sides could agree to a two-year deal worth a total of $8-10MM instead. GM Walt Jocketty has said that the sides have discussed a deal “quite a bit.”
  • Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News wonders whether Chris Heisey will be a fourth outfielder, the regular center fielder, or the regular left fielder in 2012.

Reds Considering Cordero Extension

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In looking at Francisco Cordero's 2012 option earler this week, MLBTR's Dan Mennella speculated that the Reds will probably decline the $12MM commitment. He's very likely correct, but according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Cincinnati may not have to make that decision. Cordero is willing to re-negotiate the option, and the Reds have interest in working out a new extension with their closer of the past four seasons.

General manager Walt Jocketty said the Reds have discussed an extension "quite a bit" but haven't made a final decision;they're hoping to make that call before season's end.

As Fay points out, the Reds don't have an obvious replacement for Cordero on their roster and would likely have to sign another one. The team is leaning toward using Aroldis Chapman in the starting rotation next year, Nick Masset has been decent but not great, and while Bill Bray's numbers appear nice, his career numbers against right-handers aren't overly impressive (.262/.327/.424 triple slash line).

Cordero is in the midst of a brilliant season; the 37-year-old righty has a 2.30 ERA with 32 saves and a career-low 2.4 BB/9 in 62 2/3 innings to date. However his 5.7 K/9 is also a career-low, and his average fastball velocity, while still a solid 93mph, is down considerably from when he averaged 94-96mph routinely from 2003-2008. Cordero posted a 10.3 K/9 over 432 1/3 innings in that stretch.

It's tough to see an extension for Cordero guaranteeing anything other than two more years, perhaps with a club option for the 2014 season, when he'd be 40 years old. Cordero has expressed his desire to stay in Cincinnati, and we saw the Reds go down a similar path with Bronson Arroyo last offseason, working out a three-year extension as he entered what would have been an option year (though they exercised his option first). A two-year deal to replace the $12MM option may have to guarantee Cordero more than that dollar amount, but perhaps his desire to remain a Red would lead to a discount.

Remember that for updates on all things closer-related, you can follow @closernews on Twitter or visit CloserNews.com.

Francisco Cordero’s 2012 Option

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Even at a cursory glance, Reds closer Francisco Cordero's $12MM 2012 club option stands out as one of the likeliest to be declined. That's not a jab at Cordero or the season he's put together; in fact, he's quietly enjoying a campaign that ranks among his finest: 31 saves, a 2.34 ERA and 0.96 WHIP entering Thursday's action.

Cordero will turn 37 next May, however, which represents the greatest obstacle to his hefty option being exercised. And although his surface stats indicate he's still plugging along in prime form, the peripherals suggest things aren't so rosy.

Cordero's strikeout rate has dipped each of the past four seasons, all the way down to a single-season career low of 5.69 K/9 in 2011. He's managed to limit his walks to a respectable 2.48 BB/9, and his groundball rate has spiked up to nearly 52 percent, but if you put all of this in the xFIP blender, it churns out an ugly 3.91 figure. SIERA is a bit kinder at 3.49, but either number still suggests the ERA may be a product of some good fortune.

For his part, Cordero seems to be angling for a new deal with the Reds, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, implicitly conceding that the option is likely a no-go:

“I want to stay here,” he said, “whether they pick up the option or try to work something out. They’ve got a decision to make. I’m willing to negotiate a new deal.”

Between his age, subtle decline, and the wealth of closers on the free-agent market this offseason, Cordero and his representatives at Proformance won't have much negotiating leverage, whether that be with the Reds or another team. Considering he'll be shopping his services for his ages 37 and 38 seasons, he'd do well to get a two-year deal with a total value in the $8-10MM range, although I could just as easily see him settling for one year in in a buyer's market.

As for Cordero's potential suitors, it's too soon to start guessing about the closer carousel, but I think the Reds could find a home for him. They're still undecided about Aroldis Chapman's role, and Nick Masset and Logan Ondrusek profile more as workhorse setup types.

Quick Hits: Millwood, Wilson, Cubs, Cordero

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Links for Saturday afternoon..

  • The Rockies would like to have Kevin Millwood back next season but Troy Renck of The Denver Post (via Twitter) thinks that the club would prefer to bring him back on a minor league deal.
  • In a piece for ESPN.com (Insider req'd), Dave Cameron of Fangraphs explains why he sees C.J. Wilson as a good free agent buy.  Because he began his career as a reliever, the Rangers' lefty has thrown just 670.2 innings thus far in his major-league career.
  • The Cubs have extended the contract of player personnel director Oneri Fleita, one of the key additions of former GM Jim Hendry, writes Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune.  The 44-year-old's deal is for four years, according to Toni Ginnetti of the Chicago Sun-Times.
  • Earlier today, Reds closer Francisco Cordero reiterated his desire to stay in Cincinnati, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  However, the veteran said that his agent and the club have not had discussions on whether the Reds will exercise his $12MM option.

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Berkman, Cordero

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The Pirates signed Aramis Ramirez as an amateur free agent on this date in 1994. Ramirez spent five and a half seasons with the Pirates before they shipped him to the Cubs. Here are the latest links from the only division Ramirez has ever known…

  • The Brewers are talking about possible upgrades, but aren't close on completing any deals, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
  • St. Louis Post-Dispatch baseball writers are in general agreement that a deal between the Cardinals and Lance Berkman seems likely next year.
  • Reds closer Francisco Cordero told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that he would love to return to Cincinnati in 2012 and pitch under Dusty Baker again. The Reds have a $12MM club option for Cordero ($1MM buyout), who says he'd like to retire with the Reds. 
  • MLBTR's Tim Dierkes took a look at the upcoming closer carousel earlier today. Don’t forget to check out closernews.com for the latest fantasy news on relievers.

Heyman On Weeks, Matsui, Pujols

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SI's Jon Heyman is gathering all kinds of information at the GM Meetings; here's the latest…

  • Brewers GM Doug Melvin will talk to second baseman Rickie Weeks today about a possible extension, tweets Heyman.  The arbitration eligible Weeks is one year away from free agency.
  • Heyman tweets that the White Sox are talking to free agent designated hitter Hideki Matsui, who would fit as one of two lefty bats they hope to acquire.  The Sox have already had preliminary discussions with Adam Dunn's agent.  Heyman says the Cubs have not appeared to be big suitors for Dunn so far.
  • Regarding Albert Pujols, Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt does not want to repeat Alex Rodriguez's ten-year, $275MM contract.  In fact, he believes the Yankees would retract A-Rod's deal if they could.  Heyman floated an eight-year, $240MM deal to DeWitt, who questioned the $30MM salary.
  • Expensive closers Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Cordero are on the trade market, with the Red Sox and Reds willing to kick in money.  Still, Heyman sees the Red Sox retaining Papelbon, whose trade market is weak.
  • Heyman could see something around three years and $57MM for Derek Jeter.
  • Heyman believes the Orioles are looking at Paul Konerko and/or Adrian Beltre for their corner infield openings.

This Date In Transactions History: Francisco Cordero

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It's the summer of 1994 in the Dominican Republic. Teenagers are showing their skills off to the general manager of the Detroit Tigers, Joe Klein. The hitters bat and, one after the other, the pitchers throw. The sun has started setting by the time a tall, sturdily-built right-hander takes his turn. And as soon as Francisco Cordero starts unleashing fastballs, Klein takes notice.

"There was no question in my mind that he was going to be a major leaguer," said Klein, who is now the executive director of the Atlantic League.

Even then, Cordero had a blazing fastball. He was a couple inches shorter than he is today and had yet to fill out completely, but Tigers scout Ramon Pena liked the looks of the 19-year-old. Klein was surprised to find out that Cordero hadn't been signed, but the pitcher didn't remain a free agent for long. The Tigers signed him 16 years ago today. 

It took most of five minor league seasons for Cordero to reach the majors and even when he finally debuted with the Tigers in 1999, he walked nearly a batter per inning. It wasn't until three years after the Tigers sent Cordero to Texas in the Juan Gonzalez trade that he emerged as a dominant pitcher. Cordero has been effective every season since 2002, averaging 30 saves per year, posting a 2.90 ERA, striking out more than a batter per inning and limiting his walks (3.8 BB/9). 

Now, Cordero's nothing like the teenager the Tigers found in the Dominican 16 years ago. Klein sees similarities between the prospect he signed and the 35-year-old flamethrower in the Cincinnati bullpen, but can he believe they're the same person?

"No," Klein said. "He's learned to focus and he's matured and I'm really proud of him."

Stark On Halladay, Bradley, Lackey, Gonzalez

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The Blue Jays are still demanding nearly as much for Roy Halladay as they were this summer, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. The Angels, Phillies and Yankees appear to be "the only realistic destinations" for Halladay at this point. The Angels would apparently want Halladay to sign an extension if they traded for him, but the Jays don't appear to be close to dealing their ace away. Here are the rest of Stark's rumors:

  • One GM would be shocked if the Angels don't sign Jason Bay or John Lackey. The Angels haven't shown any indications that they're ready to offer Lackey A.J. Burnett money ($82.5MM).
  • The Yankees are focused on adding a free agent starter and determining whether Johnny Damon will return.
  • If the Cubs and Rays can figure out the money, Milton Bradley could still end up in Tampa Bay.
  • The Red Sox will have a hole at first or third if and when the Mike Lowell deal goes through, but you can count out Adrian Gonzalez. Stark says the Padres just have no motivation to move the hometown slugger.
  • The Red Sox are "clearly infatuated with" Adrian Beltre.
  • Dan Uggla, Francisco Cordero, Luis Castillo, Lyle Overbay, Kerry Wood, Kyle Farnsworth, Gary Matthews Jr., Juan Pierre, Jose Guillen and Eric Byrnes were all being shopped this week.
  • Stark notes that the market for starting pitchers hasn't been bad so far, pointing to Randy Wolf and Andy Pettitte as examples.

Odds & Ends: M’s, O’s, Closers, Molina, Willingham

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Let's take a look at some Sunday links:

  • A number of league officials have told the New York Post's Joel Sherman that they expect the Mariners and the Orioles to spend big this offseason.  The M's have already started spending big, inking Chone Figgins earlier this week. Hearing that the Orioles are ready to spend big, however, comes as a surprise.
  • Peter Gammons agrees on the Mariners; he tweets that one executive says we should watch for Seattle to be in on both Jason Bay and John Lackey. The Mariners have money, and as Gammons says, "Jack Z loves to lay low and strike." 
  • We know that there are plenty of capable closers available on the open market, but Tracy Ringolsby of FOX Sports reports that there are a handful available via trade as well.  The Reds are hoping to move Francisco Cordero and the remainder of his hefty contract – two years, $25MM.  San Diego believes that Heath Bell's value is at its absolute zenith and is looking to capitalize.  The Pirates hope to find a new home for Matt Capps, who they labeled as their closer for 2010.
  • Jon Heyman wonders aloud if Bengie Molina is seeking a three-year pact, since the Mets are willing to give him two years and there is no deal in place yet (via Twitter). 
  • Heyman also tweets that the Cubs and Rays are not close on a Milton Bradley-for-Pat Burrell swap.  The possibility of including the Mets and Luis Castillo in a three-way trade is "not helping things."
  • The Mets are interested in Josh Willingham, according to William Ladson of MLB.com (via Twitter).
  • Don't expect the Padres to move Adrian Gonzalez in Indianapolis, writes Corey Brock of MLB.com.  However, if San Diego does make any moves at all, it will likely be via trade.
  • Jon Paul Morosi offers a high-level preview of each team's thoughts going into the Winter Meetings, broken down by National League and American League.
  • A few overseas updates courtesy of Patrick from NPB Tracker: The Hansin Tigers are nearing a deal with Randy Messenger, and have interest in Jason Bulger, should he be removed from the Angels' 40-man roster. Patrick also adds that Nelson Payano is likely to return to MLB-affiliated ball. The lefty last worked with the AA affiliates for Seattle and Atlanta in 2008.
  • Ken Davidoff tweets that once the Yankees non-tender Chien-Ming Wang, the Dodgers will have interest in the right-hander, as Joe Torre and Larry Bowa are both big fans.

Discussion: Reds Looking To Deal?

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SI.com's Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the Cincinnati Reds might field offers for Brandon Phillips, Francisco Cordero, and Bronson Arroyo.

We've heard plenty of speculation that the trade market will be more vibrant this offseason than the free agent market, with so few big names available through free agency. Phillips and Cordero would each match up well with the best free agents available at their respective positions, and even Arroyo posted a 3.84 ERA in 220.1 IP this season. Teams may be more inclined to inquire about their price tags than to dish out long-term contracts to similar or lesser free agents.

The Reds once again finished below .500 last year in the NL Central, and are looking up at the Cardinals, Cubs, and Brewers, who all seem more likely than Cincinnati to add an impact talent this winter. The Reds are not a large-market team; their 2009 payroll sat at $73MM, and we heard earlier this week that it'll be even smaller in 2010. It makes sense that they would explore the return on a few of their bigger contracts and attempt to rebuild around players like Jay Bruce, Edinson Volquez, and Joey Votto (or top first base prospect Yonder Alonso).

These contracts won't be easy for the Reds to move, however. Cordero's deal runs through 2011, with a club option for 2012. In each of the next two seasons, he'll make $12MM, and a limited no-trade clause could complicate matters even more. Arroyo will earn $11MM in 2010, with a $11MM club option for 2011. Phillips is a little cheaper for now, earning $6.75MM in 2010. He'll also make $11MM in 2011 though, with a club option for 2012.

An all-out fire sale seems unlikely, but the Reds could earn salary relief, and maybe even decent prospects, in exchange for Phillips, Cordero or Arroyo (or, for that matter, Aaron Harang). On the other hand, it might kill whatever hope the team has of contending in the near future. So what do you think, Reds fans? Would you like to see the club explore trade options, or is there a better way to restore the franchise to prominence?

Check out Tim's offseason outlook for the Reds to see all of the team's 2010 commitments. And if you missed it earlier today, click here for his analysis of the trade market for starters, which includes Arroyo and Harang.

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