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Fernando Tatis Jr.

The Padres, The Luxury Tax And The Trade Deadline

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The 45-31 Padres possess baseball’s fifth-best winning percentage (.592) and fifth-best run differential (+63). They’ve achieved this success despite receiving middle-of-the-pack production from first base and designated hitter in addition to well below-average offensive production from center field and right field. The Friars have also played the entire season thus far without star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. (although Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Tatis could begin hitting off a tee within the next two weeks and embark on a rehab assignment a couple weeks after that).

Given their success to date, the clear win-now direction of their recent slate of transactions and the generally aggressive mindset of baseball operations president A.J. Preller, one would expect the Padres to be in the market for upgrades as the Aug. 2 trade deadline approaches. They were reportedly seeking corner outfield upgrades even before the season started, and this year’s rough showing from center fielder Trent Grisham (.188/.287/.321 through 281 plate appearances) creates even further uncertainty in the outfield.

The problem for the Padres, as has been well documented in the past, is that their backs are up against a luxury-tax barrier that ownership seems unwilling to surpass for what would be a second consecutive season. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez estimates San Diego’s current slate of luxury tax obligations to be $229.4MM — just $600K shy of this year’s newly increased $230MM threshold. Agents I’ve spoken to who talked with the Padres late in the offseason said the team indeed suggested there was no real room to add to the Major League payroll, given their proximity to the tax line.

All of that meshes with reports that we’ve seen for more than a year now: that the Padres would love to shed the contracts of Wil Myers and/or Eric Hosmer and have explored attaching prospects of note in an effort to do just that. Those efforts, however, have come up empty — and it seems unlikely that the Padres would have any more success now. Myers has been on the injured list since May 31 due to a knee injury and was hitting just .234/.276/.306 in 134 plate appearances before being shelved. He’s owed the remainder of a $20MM salary this year plus a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option. Hosmer came out of the gates on fire but has faceplanted with a .238/.294/.330 slash in 201 plate appearances since May 1. He’s being paid $20MM this season and is owed $39MM total from 2023-25.

Every deadline season is different, and perhaps the Padres will finally beat the odds and manage to unload one of those cumbersome contracts, but with neither player doing much to improve his stock, that feels unlikely. If the Padres can’t manage to find a taker for either Myers or Hosmer but still wish to improve at the deadline, it stands to reason that they’ll have to explore other creative scenarios.

The simplest scenario for the Friars, despite the manner in which their pitching depth evaporated late in the 2021 season, would be to deal from their Major League rotation — either in order to acquire an outfielder of note or in order to clear the requisite payroll to do so in a separate trade. The Padres have an enviable starting staff of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell and breakout rookie MacKenzie Gore. The staff is deep enough that righty Nick Martinez, who signed an opt-out-laden four-year deal in free agency this winter, has been working out of the bullpen at times in recent weeks.

It’s true that the Padres’ upper-level depth in the minors isn’t exactly at a high point. Adrian Martinez was traded to the A’s in the Manaea deal. Ryan Weathers and Reiss Knehr have pitched poorly in Triple-A. There’s risk in dealing from the big league staff, as a few injuries (and/or workload fatigue from Gore) could radically alter the picture. That said, a trade involving someone from the current staff could also net some lower-end pitching depth to help serve as insurance upon which to lean in the event of further injuries. It also shouldn’t be ruled out that the Padres could deal from the current rotation and reallocate some of that space to yet another newly acquired veteran arm; they’ve already been linked to Reds ace Luis Castillo, for instance.

Dennis Lin of The Athletic wrote in his latest mailbag that of the team’s current starters, Snell is the likely preference if they’re to make a trade. That makes good sense, as he carries a $10MM luxury hit for the Padres and has underperformed this season after missing significant time with an adductor strain to begin the year. Snell has at times looked quite strong this season, and fielding-independent pitching metrics feel he’s been better than his 5.60 ERA. Still, Snell has walked 12.2% of his opponents and regularly run up lofty pitch counts early in games, leading to an average of just five innings per outing.

Despite the struggles, Snell isn’t far removed from a far more promising stretch of games. Last year’s 4.20 ERA in 27 starts looks underwhelming, but he posted a 3.24 ERA with a 33.3% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate following last year’s All-Star break –a stretch that was capped off with 44 1/3 frames of 1.83 ERA ball. Snell completed seven innings and logged double-digit strikeout totals four times in that span, looking every bit like the former Cy Young winner he is. Snell is earning $12.5MM this season and has a $16MM salary for the 2023 season, and another club might feel it’s worth taking the financial risk to buy low on such a talented arm. Lin writes that the Padres have been “frustrated” by Snell’s lack of performance.

Other members of the rotation would also be more difficult to move. There’s no chance the Padres would move Musgrove amid a potential Cy Young campaign. Darvish has been their second-best starter, making him tough to replace, and he’s also the most expensive of the bunch, making him tougher for other teams to take on. Clevinger’s $5.75MM luxury number doesn’t give the Padres as much financial leeway as Snell would, and he’s pitched even less this season than Snell (albeit also more effectively). Manaea has been solid and would surely draw interest, but the team probably doesn’t want to remove an as-advertised mid-rotation arm that was only acquired a couple months ago — even if he’s a free agent this winter. Martinez’s opt outs make him an unappealing trade candidate. Snell strikes the balance of track record, upside and also current expendability that could make a team bite, even if it’d be selling low for the Padres.

Where else could the Friars look to get creative, though? Righty Dinelson Lamet is currently pitching out of the bullpen in Triple-A while earning a $4.775MM salary. He was clobbered for 10 runs in 8 1/3 big league innings earlier this year and hasn’t been the same since returning from Tommy John surgery, but he’s a big arm who could potentially appeal to another club willing to take on some money. No one should expect him to replicate his otherworldly 2.09 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate from the shortened 2020 season, but those numbers are illustrative of the talent Lamet possesses. Could they find a taker for an injured Drew Pomeranz, who’s in the third season of a four-year, $34MM contract? Again, it’d be selling low on an immensely talented arm.

Looking up and down the roster, the Padres may not love the idea of parting with Ha-Seong Kim, who has become a useful bench piece thanks to standout defense at three positions and a passable, if unexciting, .226/.311/.345 batting line (91 wRC+). But the former KBO superstar hasn’t yet lived up to expectations since signing a four-year, $28MM contract in free agency, and the associated $7MM luxury hit that comes with that deal is more significant for the Padres now than it was at the time of his signing. Once Tatis returns, Kim will likely see his playing time reduced considerably.

However it plays out, the Padres have a difficult road ahead as the trade deadline approaches. They’ll either need to convince trade partners to pay the salary of any upgrades they acquire (thus increasing the prospect cost to make those deals), finally succeed in dumping an onerous contract, or sell low on some pricey but valuable depth in a manner that could come back to haunt them.  The alternatives are to simply stand pat, hoping that the return of Tatis and some improvements from the likes of Snell, Myers and Hosmer will be sufficient upgrades — or to bite the bullet and cross over into luxury territory.

Latest On Fernando Tatis Jr.

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The Padres continue to await the return of Fernando Tatís Jr., who hasn’t played this season while recovering from an offseason fracture in his left wrist. The club’s franchise shortstop underwent his latest set of imaging yesterday, and the results were mixed.

Tatís’ latest CT scan didn’t reveal the level of healing for which the team had been hoping, writes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He has still not yet been cleared to swing a bat, although he hasn’t suffered any sort of setback. “Another MRI scan continues to show healing, but it was not quite at the level for … a full green light,” president of baseball operations A.J. Preller told reporters (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). “Basically we’re in a spot where we’re going to progress week-to-week.”

That’s certainly not an ideal development, particularly given how long Tatís has already been sidelined. When announcing the injury and subsequent surgery in mid-March, Preller indicated the All-Star infielder could be out for three months. We’ve now hit that timetable, and the continued “week-to-week” treatment plan for Tatís to pick up a bat means he’s still not on the verge of an imminent return. As Acee points out, it’s difficult to imagine he’ll be ready to play in a major league game before the July 18-21 All-Star Break, since he’ll certainly need a rehab stint in the minor leagues even after building back into game shape physically.

At the same time, Tatís has continued to make incremental progress. He was cleared to play catch today, the first time he’s been able to snag balls out of the air after previously being limited to taking grounders (video provided by Annie Heilbrunn of the Union-Tribune). Asked how he feels about his current status, Tatís conceded “It’s a little of both. A little bit happy because I’m still progressing. And a little bit sad, because it’s not what everybody wants, including myself” (Cassavell link).

As Tatís was quick to point out, the team hasn’t missed much of a beat in his absence. Despite losing one of the sport’s top players, San Diego enters play Tuesday with a 38-24 record. They’re the top Wild Card team in the National League at the moment, and they sit just percentage points behind the Dodgers in the NL West. That’s largely on the strength of the pitching staff, though, as the Friars place 13th in the majors in runs scored (272) and 21st in park-adjusted hitting (94 wRC+). San Diego shortstops have an awful .170/.271/.257 slash line on the season, as Ha-Seong Kim has cooled after a strong start and top prospect C.J. Abrams struggled badly enough he was optioned back to the minor leagues.

Whenever Tatís is able to return, the position should go from a weakness to an unqualified strength. Preller unsurprisingly indicated the club isn’t feeling any pressure to make an outside addition over the coming weeks, telling Acee and others “we’re expecting to have him back, it’s just a matter of when. I don’t think (the recent imaging) changes anything to where we need to do something form a roster standpoint.“

Injury Notes: Tatis, Machado, Cruz, Matz

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Superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who has yet to play in 2022 following March surgery to repair a wrist fracture, has joined the Padres on their current road trip, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune (Twitter link). Tatis had previously been working out at the team’s spring training complex in Peoria, but he’s now able to run and take grounders with his teammates. While his ultimate return date remains unclear, Acee reports that the there is ’optimism’ that Tatis will be cleared to swing a bat following a scan of the surgically repaired wrist upon the team’s return to San Diego next week.

Other injury notes from around the league:

  • Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that Manny Machado’s absence from the final two games of the Padres’ weekend series against the Pirates was a result of a cortisone injection he’d received to alleviate issues with tennis elbow, a repetitive strain injury to upper forearm muscles most commonly seen among tennis players. The injection was evidently successful, as Machado is back in the Padres lineup in today’s game against the Cardinals. Ha-Seong Kim took Machado’s place at third in his absence.
  • High-end Pirates prospect Oneil Cruz suffered what is currently termed a ’minor’ ankle injury while sliding into a base while playing for Triple-A Indianapolis Sunday, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The severity of the injury is not yet known, though he did leave the game. A consensus top-25 prospect, the 6’7″ shortstop has posted a disappointing .220/.330/.402 batting line through his first 191 plate appearances at Triple-A, though he remains a strong candidate for a mid-season call-up for a Pirates team that’s currently ten games back in the NL Central and isn’t expected to vie for a wild card spot. He logged nine plate appearances and three hits (including a home run) in a two-game cameo in the majors late last season.
  • Left-hander Steven Matz, who hit the IL a week ago with a shoulder impingement, has received a cortisone injection in his left shoulder, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. Matz has gotten off to something of a slow start in St. Louis since signing a four-year, $44MM deal with the Cardinals a week ahead of the lockout, posting a 6.03 ERA (4.29 FIP) in 37 1/3 innings prior to his current IL stint. It’s a tiny sample, of course, and his issues seem to have been driven largely by bad luck, including a .350 BABIP (against a .310 career mark) and an elevated home run rate of 4.9%  (3.7% career) without a significant change in his fly ball rate. Both his strikeout rate of 26.8% and walk rate of 4.9% have been better than his career marks (22.5% and 4.9%, respectively). The timeline for his return remains unclear.

Injury Notes: Buxton, Walker, Tatis

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Twins center fielder Byron Buxton exited Friday’s game with what initially looked like it could be a notable knee injury, but an MRI over the weekend ruled out any structural damage. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters Monday morning that Buxton is feeling optimistic and that within the next day or two, the Twins would be “talking about a specific plan for getting him back out there” (Twitter link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). President of baseball operations Derek Falvey joined the booth as a guest during the broadcast of today’s game and added that the hope is for Buxton, who has not been placed on the injured list, to rejoin the lineup at some point during the Twins’ upcoming series against the Royals. The Twins will travel to Kansas City for a three-game set running from Tuesday through Thursday.

The latest on some more health situations around the game:

  • Righty Taijuan Walker is headed out on a minor league rehab assignment this week and is expected to start for the Mets’ Class-A Advanced affiliate on Wednesday, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Walker, who landed on the injured list last week due to a case of bursitis in his pitching shoulder, may only need the one rehab appearance before being cleared to return. DiComo suggests the 29-year-old right-hander will likely line up to start one of next week’s games against the Cardinals. Walker’s first outing of the season lasted just two innings, but it seems he’ll be able to make a swift return to the rotation, barring any setbacks of note during his rehab outing. Walker posted a 4.47 ERA in 30 appearances for the Mets in 2021.
  • Padres star shortstop Fernando Tatís Jr. has progressed to participating in light on-field baseball activities, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The two-time Silver Slugger award winner simulated taking ground-balls during infield practice before tonight’s game against the Reds, throwing the ball across the diamond to first base. Tatís is still wearing a brace and has yet to progress to fielding or swinging a bat as he rehabs from the mid-March surgery he underwent to repair a fractured scaphoid bone in his left wrist. The Padres initially placed a three-month timetable on his return to the field, though Cassavell writes Tatís recently opined he’s ahead of schedule in his recovery. The organization won’t make any firmer timetable until he begins to swing a bat, which manager Bob Melvin says will be the final baseball activity the team allows him to take. Tatís is on the 60-day injured list and ineligible to return until the first week of June. In all likelihood, he’ll be out for a bit beyond when he’s first eligible to return, but it’s welcome news that he’s progressed to getting some pre-game work in on the field.

Padres Select C.J. Abrams, Jose Azocar; Kyle Tyler Designated For Assignment

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The Padres set their Opening Day roster Thursday, announcing that top prospect C.J. Abrams and outfielder Jose Azocar have been selected to the Major League roster. The Padres placed Fernando Tatis Jr. on the 60-day injured list and designated right-hander Kyle Tyler for assignment in a pair of corresponding 40-man moves.

Abrams is a consensus top prospect, ranked among the sport’s 15 most talented minor leaguers by each of Baseball America, The Athletic, FanGraphs, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. Kiley McDaniel at ESPN is the most bullish of the group, slotting Abrams fourth among the sport’s prospects. Reports praise his top-of-the-scale speed and athleticism and excellent hit tool, although evaluators also suggest Abrams has a chance to hit for average or better power at peak.

San Diego originally selected Abrams with the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft out of a Georgia high school. He hasn’t had much professional game experience. Abrams spent the second half of his first pro season in rookie ball, with a late cameo at Low-A. The pandemic wiped out the 2020 minor league season, and the Friars pushed him to Double-A Amarillo to start the 2021 season.

Abrams handled the aggressive assignment well, hitting .296/.363/.420 with a pair of home runs and 13 stolen bases over 183 plate appearances. He showcased his advanced bat-to-ball skills with a 19.7% strikeout rate that was a few points below the league average, in spite of the fact that he was younger than virtually every arm he faced. Unfortunately, Abrams was deprived of a second half of reps after he fractured his left tibia and sprained his MCL in an on-field collision in early July.

There’s no doubt some risk for the Pads in pushing Abrams straight to the big leagues. He’s played all of 44 games above Rookie ball because of the pandemic and last season’s injury, none of that time at Triple-A. Yet there’s little question he has electric physical abilities, and the San Diego front office evidently feels he’s at least capable of keeping his head above water in the early going while continuing to develop into a core long-term piece.

Abrams has played the middle infield exclusively during his minor league tenure. Evaluators have been divided on his ability to stick at shortstop long-term, but the general consensus is that he’d be a solid defender at second base. Given his elite speed, Abrams could probably be a plus defender in the outfield as well, and he’s gotten some work on the grass this spring. He’ll presumably need more than a few weeks to become completely comfortable reading fly balls off the bat, but there’s little doubt he’s athletic enough to develop into a long-term outfield option.

It remains to be seen how first-year skipper Bob Melvin will deploy the 21-year-old in the early going. He figures to see some action at each of shortstop, second base and in the outfield. Jake Cronenworth has second base accounted for, but Tatis’ injury had thrust Ha-Seong Kim into the primary shortstop job. A well-regarded signee out of South Korea, Kim struggled during his rookie season in MLB. Melvin can give regular shortstop run to either of Abrams or Kim, and the Pads are set to rely on some combination of Jurickson Profar, Brent Rooker and Matt Beaty in left field.

The Padres aren’t wedded to keeping Abrams on the big league roster from here on out, as he’ll have all three minor league option years remaining. Yet San Diego wouldn’t have carried him out of camp if they didn’t feel he was ready for the challenge, and they’d certainly love if Abrams is in the big leagues to stay. If that’s the case, he’d be controllable through 2027 and wouldn’t reach arbitration eligibility until after the 2024 campaign. Future optional assignments, if needed, might push those trajectories back.

As a consensus top prospect, Abrams qualifies for the so-called Prospect Promotion Incentive in the new collective bargaining agreement. Based on his finishes in Rookie of the Year and MVP voting over his first three MLB seasons, the Padres could stand to collect some extra draft choices if he excels.

Azocar isn’t anywhere near the caliber of prospect Abrams is, but he’ll likewise be making his big league debut whenever he gets into a game. Signed by the Tigers as an amateur free agent from Venezuela in 2012, he spent eight seasons in the Detroit farm system and played his way to Double-A. After reaching minor league free agency, he landed with the Padres on a minors deal last winter.

The 25-year-old split last season between Amarillo and Triple-A El Paso. Over 544 plate appearances, he hit .281/.341/.438 with nine homers and 32 steals. Azocar has never hit more than 10 homers in a minor league season and has well below-average power, but evaluators have long credited him as a plus runner and solid defensive outfielder. He can play all three outfield spots and gives the team a true fourth outfield type behind Trent Grisham in center field.

Tyler just landed with San Diego on waivers a couple weeks ago. The righty has bounced from the Angels to the Red Sox to the Padres on the wire over the past month, and he figures to land back on waivers in the next few days. He made his big league debut last season, tossing 12 1/3 relief innings over five appearances with six strikeouts and walks apiece. Tyler still has all three options remaining.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Undergoes Wrist Surgery

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March 16: Tatis is undergoing surgery this morning, tweets Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune.

March 14, 2:16pm: It’s not clear precisely when Tatis suffered his injury, but he admitted today when speaking with reporters (including Jesse Rogers of ESPN) that he’d fallen off his motorcycle multiple times throughout the winter. One accident described as minor had been reported in early December; Tatis called its resultant injuries “minor scrapes,” but Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweets that some people “close to the situation” are hypothesizing he suffered his wrist fracture at that point. As Bob Nightengale of USA Today points out, team officials were barred from speaking with or examining Tatis until last Thursday on account of the lockout.

11:29am: Tatis has a fracture in the scaphoid bone of his left wrist, tweets Cassavell. It’s possible the injury was sustained earlier in the winter (though that remains unclear), but it flared up decisively while swinging a bat recently.

11:05am: Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. suffered a broken wrist that could require surgery, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller announced to reporters this morning (Twitter link via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell). Surgery is a possibility for Tatis, who is expected to miss up to three months recovering from the injury.

It’s a brutal blow to the Padres, who’ll now go as much as half the season without one of the game’s brightest young stars. Tatis missed time last season with a recurring subluxation of his shoulder but nevertheless hit .282/.364/.611 with 42 home runs in just 130 games. Tatis avoided surgery for that particular ailment but will now miss substantial time with a new malady.

San Diego has plenty of infield depth, though there’s no replacing a player of Tatis’ caliber. His injury could create a more stable opportunity for former KBO star Ha-Seong Kim, who struggled in a part-time role with the Friars last year after signing a four-year, $28MM contract. Alternate options on the roster include third baseman Manny Machado, second baseman Jake Cronenworth and utilityman Jurickson Profar — all of whom have experience at shortstop in the big leagues. Twenty-one-year-old CJ Abrams is among the top prospects in all of baseball, but he’s not yet on the 40-man roster and has yet to play above Double-A. He’s in camp as a non-roster invitee, though, so he’ll get a chance to force the team’s hand.

Of course, it at least bears mention that there are a few prominent shortstops yet unsigned on the market. Both Carlos Correa and Trevor Story have been in search of new homes this winter, and were either amenable to a one-year deal that’d allow them to reenter the market next winter, the Friars could make for a previously unexpected fit. There’d be an eventual logjam, but Tatis did spend some time in the outfield last year.

That said, a Story or Correa match is an extreme long shot for multiple reasons. Both are seeking long-term arrangements, and the Padres have been looking to shed payroll as they explore trade scenarios involving Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers. Signing either free agent would require not only forfeiting a draft pick but also forking over a sizable salary. Preller has taught us time and again to never expressly rule the Padres out on virtually any pie-in-the-sky scenario, but it’s pretty difficult to imagine either Story or Correa popping up in Padres camp to step in for Tatis.

Tatis is entering the second season of a precedent-shattering 14-year, $340MM contract extension. He’s slated to earn $5MM this season and will see his salaries rise to $7MM in 2023, $11MM in 2024, $20MM in 2025-26, $25MM in 2027-28 and $36MM annually from 2029-36.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Will Not Undergo Shoulder Surgery

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Padres star Fernando Tatís Jr. has elected to forego surgery on his left shoulder, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. There’d been some speculation both inside and outside the organization he’d need to go under the knife this winter to correct the issue that plagued him a few times throughout the season, but that apparently won’t be the case. He’ll instead pursue non-surgical means of strengthening the area over the winter in an effort to stay healthy moving forward.

Tatís had two separate IL stints for shoulder issues this past season, missing the minimal ten days in April and another couple of weeks in August. In both instances, he suffered the injury on basic baseball activities — his first occurring on a swing, his second sliding into a base. Both injuries initially seemed to have the potential for extended absences, but Tatís returned in relatively short order each time.

When Tatís was healthy enough to play, he didn’t seem any worse for wear at the plate. Over 546 plate appearances, the 22-year-old hit a massive .282/.364/.611 with 42 home runs. By measure of wRC+, his offensive output was 56 percentage points above league average, a mark topped only by Bryce Harper, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto among those with 500+ trips to the plate.

The shoulder problems did have a significant impact defensively, as the Padres slid Tatís off shortstop into the outfield for a good portion of the stretch run. The move was made primarily to reduce the potential that he’d reaggravate the injury, but Tatís mostly returned to shortstop for the season’s final three weeks. There’s no doubt about his position moving forward, as the All-Star has already gone on record about his adamance at staying at shortstop in 2022 and beyond.

NL Notes: Padres, Cubs, Mets

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Fernando Tatis Jr. made no two ways about it when discussing his future as a shortstop. “(A.J. Preller) signed a shortstop, and he’s gonna have a shortstop,” he said, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). “That’s the plan so far, and I’m not planning on moving for a very long time from there.” Tatis moved to the outfield this season after being slowed by a repeated shoulder injury. The Padres are flush with infielders under team control for next season, including Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim, both of whom are capable of manning short. Regardless, Tatis Jr. sounds dedicated to reclaiming his natural position.

Elsewhere in the National League…

  • Willson Contreras gave an honest assessment of what he thinks the Cubs need heading into next season, while acknowledging that he thought he was going to be traded in this piece from The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Despite being the “last man standing” in many respects, Contreras continue to say all the right things about wanting to stay and be a leader on the next generation of Cubs’ contender. They have some money to spend this offseason, but for the first time in awhile, many teams seem to, and there are only so many “foundational” pieces available in that market.
  • The Mets biggest decision this winter will be finding the right man to lead their front office. After a number of missteps, the Mets will look to some high profile names to come in and right the ship. Of the most noteworthy, Oakland’s Billy Beane may be the most realistic target, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). In the Mets favor is the fact that the Athletics are often looking to save money, and at this point in his storied career, Beane comes at a significant cost. Still, Beane has been the driving force behind a successful couple of decades of A’s baseball, and it’s hard to imagine him walking.

Latest On Padres’ Front Office

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TODAY: Ryley Westman has been promoted from director of player development to farm director, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel (Twitter link).  Amateur scouting director Mark Conner has also been reassigned to a special assistant role, as international scouting director Chris Kemp will now assume Conner’s old duties.

SEPTEMBER 21: The Padres have decided not to renew the contract of farm director Sam Geaney, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic. Geaney departs the organization after spending nearly seven years leading the club’s minor league system.

Geaney was hired in October 2014, just a couple months after the Padres tabbed A.J. Preller to lead baseball operations. The team made an ill-fated attempt to contend in Preller’s first year at the helm before committing to a significant teardown and rebuild. That process involved trading established big leaguers for prospects and a significant financial outlay in the international amateur market, leading to the construction of a farm system that was perhaps the game’s best for a couple years.

That rebuild began to bear fruit in 2019, when players like Fernando Tatís Jr. and Chris Paddack made their big league debuts. The team still struggled, but that changed in 2020. The Friars went 37-23 in last year’s shortened season, making the playoffs for the first time in fourteen years. In addition to bringing aboard talented young players like Tatís, Trent Grisham and Jake Cronenworth, Preller and the front office aggressively pursued star players in free agency and trade over the past few seasons. Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado had been brought aboard on huge free agent deals, while San Diego built a star-studded rotation via trade, landing Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove (in addition to the since-injured Mike Clevinger) from other organizations.

That series of bold strikes had a few effects. It thinned out the once-vaunted farm system significantly. Luis Patiño, who went to the Rays in the Snell deal, was perhaps the only truly elite young talent sent away. But San Diego parted with a collection of generally well-regarded players, dealing a blow to the minor league depth. Still, that seemed a price worth paying to build a fantastic big league roster, and the Padres entered the 2021 campaign with extraordinarily high expectations.

Early in the season, San Diego looked well on their way to meeting those lofty goals. They won 32 of their first 50 games; by late May, their chances of making the postseason were approaching 99% in FanGraphs’ estimation. Things have changed dramatically since that high water mark, with the club particularly struggling coming out of the All-Star Break. The Padres have gone just 23-33 in the season’s second half, entering play tonight with a 76-73 record that places them four games behind the Cardinals in the race for the National League’s final Wild Card spot (with the Reds also a game above them in the standings). Their playoff chances — considered a near-lock a few months ago — have plummeted to 3.4%.

Given that collapse, there’s been plenty of speculation recently about potential staffing changes that would go beyond Geaney’s dismissal. Preller, who was promoted to president of baseball operations and extended through 2026 in February, doesn’t seem likely to be in much danger. But alterations to the coaching staff could be a more realistic possibility, and the team will at least have one notable coaching decision to make this coming offseason.

The Padres fired pitching coach Larry Rothschild on August 23, bumping bullpen coach Ben Fritz to the position on an interim basis. That hasn’t brought about any sort of immediate turnaround, as Padres hurlers rank just 22nd in ERA (4.90) and 15th in SIERA (4.20) since making the change. This winter, they’ll need to determine whether to hand the job to Fritz permanently.

Recent days have also brought about some speculation regarding second-year manager Jayce Tingler’s future in the organization. Over the weekend, Ken Rosenthal, Lin and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune separately reported that Tingler, whose contract runs through 2022, is facing increased scrutiny within the clubhouse. Both outlets report that some members in the organization have questioned whether Tingler — a 40-year-old skipper in his first managerial job — has done enough to command the respect of the locker room.

Clubhouse frustration boiled over publicly on Saturday, when Tatís engaged in respective shouting matches in the dugout with bench coach Bobby Dickerson and Machado. Tingler had previously been ejected from the game, and development coach Ryan Flaherty intervened to break up the argument.

It’s certainly no surprise that frustration is mounting in the organization, given the manner in which the team’s play has fallen off. But Rosenthal, Lin and Ghiroli suggested some with the team see the spat as a microcosm of a broader leadership void. Acee, meanwhile, reported that some members of the clubhouse have desired Tingler’s dismissal for a while — and would continue to do so even if the team rights the ship and manages an improbable playoff push over the season’s final couple weeks. Both pieces present a detailed look into a seemingly messy situation and are worth full perusals.

Despite that reported discord, it’s by no means a fait accompli that Tingler’s managing his final few games in San Diego. Acee cautions that some players in the clubhouse still stick by the skipper, instead expressing frustration with what they believe to be other players’ excuses for the team’s underperformance. Both the Athletic and the Union-Tribune note that Preller and Tingler, who previously worked together in the Rangers’ front office, are very close personal friends, leading some to question whether Preller would be willing to dismiss Tingler.

It’s also impossible to pin down precisely how much blame Tingler actually deserves for the team’s struggles. As mentioned, the Padres were quite successful last season, Tingler’s first at the helm. This year, the roster has been hit hard by injuries, particularly on the pitching side. Clevinger was lost to a Tommy John surgery over the offseason. Fifth starter Adrián Morejón required the same procedure in April. Darvish, Paddack and Snell have all missed some amount of time due to injury; Paddack and Snell remain on the IL. Top prospect MacKenzie Gore, expected to be a potential big league option entering the season, struggled significantly in the minors and hasn’t proven ready for a call-up.

That’s led the Padres to look for buy-low pickups in recent weeks, with the team signing Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez after they’d been released by other clubs. That came on the heels of a trade deadline in which the front office failed to bolster the rotation, despite reported pursuits of Max Scherzer and José Berríos. (Arrieta was designated for assignment this evening after struggling over four starts).

The Friars weren’t completely inactive. They landed second baseman Adam Frazier and reliever Daniel Hudson only to see those players’ performances unexpectedly crater. But this extremely aggressive front office’s inability to land any rotation help was one of the more surprising takeaways immediately after the deadline, and it’s proven to be a significant storyline for the team in the second half.

For now, the Padres have tried to tamp down speculation about the future as they focus on the season’s final couple weeks. Tingler pushed back on the idea that he’d lost the respect of the clubhouse when speaking with reporters (including Bob Nightengale of USA Today) this evening. Machado and Tatís conducted a joint press conference tonight in which they claimed they’ve put Saturday’s incident behind them (video from Annie Heilbrunn of the Union-Tribune). It seems unlikely there’ll be any significant shakeup in San Diego while the season’s ongoing, but the Padres’ staffing decisions could prove to be one of the more important things to watch in the early portion of the upcoming offseason.

Padres Activate Fernando Tatis Jr., Place Yu Darvish On IL

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The Padres have reinstated Fernando Tatis Jr. from the IL, per a club announcement. He is in today’s lineup, starting in right field, his first career game at a position other than shortstop. Yu Darvish is swapping places with Tatis and going on the IL, with lower back tightness. Additionally, outfielder Brian O’Grady has been optioned, with righty Reiss Knehr being recalled.

Despite ongoing shoulder issues, Tatis has been one of the best players in baseball this year. He has an excellent slash line of .290/.373/.647 on the year, producing a wRC+ of 165. Among players with at least 350 plate appearances, the only ones with a higher wRC+ are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. The Padres are moving him to the outfield in the hopes that he’ll see less defensive action and will therefore be less likely to re-aggravate the shoulder problems that have already seen him go on the IL three times this season. Having his bat back in the lineup will surely be a boost to a Padres team that has been sliding lately, but still maintains a 2 1/2 game lead over the Reds for the final National League wildcard spot, going into today’s action. Jake Cronenworth, who has been manning shortstop in the absence of Tatis, figures to remain there. Wil Myers, who has been the regular right fielder of late, might be the most at risk of losing playing time.

As for Darvish, he left his start a few days ago with lower back tightness and he will now miss at least one start while recuperating. It’s a serious blow to the Padres rotation, as Darvish is having yet another excellent season. Through 131 1/3 innings, he has an ERA of 3.70, with a strikeout rate of 29.9% and walk rate of 5.7%, both of which are much better than league average. Craig Stammen is starting today, in what figures to be a bullpen game.

The San Diego rotation is now down to Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and Ryan Weathers for the time being. Reinforcements will surely be required, either internally or externally. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the club is considering free agents such as Jake Arrieta, who was released by the Cubs three days ago.

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