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Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Lawlar, Miller

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A hearty welcome to Pete Crow-Armstrong. We discussed his case for promotion last week. Though he had seven hits in 10 plate appearances over the weekend, this promotion is all about his glove. Anything he adds with his bat is gravy.

We’ll cover more recent and potential call-ups in today’s edition of Big Hype Prospects.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 520 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .326/.444/.504

As I noted last week, Holliday’s promotion to Triple-A means we finally get access to public exit velocities. Those go a long way to influencing when a prospect earns his first promotion to the Majors. His 89.6 mph average and 103.7 mph max EVs in 30 plate appearances aren’t particularly impressive. They suggest the Orioles are better off with their existing middle infielders. Overall, he’s hitting just .200/.333/.280 in Triple-A. One silver lining, he’s posted more walks than strikeouts. Of course, we’re also talking about a tiny sample. That should go without saying.
Before anyone frets about his lack of pop in 30 plate appearances, an acquaintance was nice enough to pass along his Double-A data. His 109.7 mph max EV is excellent for a 19-year-old at any level. The chart I received doesn’t list an average, but it’s visually somewhere between 90 and 93 mph – also excellent.

Junior Caminero, 20, 3B/SS, TBR (AA)
(A+/AA) 486 PA, 30 HR, 5 SB, .330/.391/.604

Wander Franco left the Rays in a tough spot, relying on the soft-hitting Taylor Walls and Osleivis Basabe to handle shortstop. Caminero represents a “go-for-power” alternative. Though he mostly plays third base these days, that decision was at least partly in deference to his expected future role. Caminero might not be much of a downgrade defensively – Walls isn’t exactly a superstar defender. Caminero is still athletic enough to cover shortstop at present. Since August 25, he batted .354/.436/.917 with eight home runs in 55 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

An injury to Adolis Garcia opened the door for Carter to join the Rangers roster. He was reportedly already under consideration, the injury merely turned “when” to “now.” Oft-compared to Brandon Nimmo (they’re eerily similar), Carter plays within himself. Not all scouts appreciate this – the current meta is all about chasing extreme outcomes. In particular, he looks like he should be able to hit for power, but he maximizes for on base percentage rather than slugging. That’s just the first of many commonalities with Nimmo. The Rangers have a reputation for forcing their prospects to produce pulled, fly ball contact. That Carter reached the Majors despite eschewing organizational preferences suggests there’s an interesting behind-the-scenes tale to tell.

Jordan Lawlar, 21, SS, ARI (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 490 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .278/.378/.496

Questions about Lawlar’s hit tool mostly fly under the radar thanks to heady results and plus shortstop defense. He’s considered one of the best athletes in the sport. The most optimistic scouts consider him a 70 overall on the 20-80 scale. Aside from consistency of contact, Lawlar offers the total package. He’s an above-average runner, fields and throws well, and already flashes 30 homer upside as part of a discipline-forward approach. Though he’s not as extreme as Anthony Volpe, there’s a chance Lawlar’s early outcomes follow a similar track.

Mason Miller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
23.1 IP, 9.64 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.09 ERA

Miller returned from injury on September 6. He’s scheduled to make his first start since April on Monday. A hard-thrower with a limited repertoire and a long injury history, Miller has rare potential to overpower Major League hitters. Developed as a starter, evaluators remain split on his ultimate role. A proactive conversion to relief could help to lengthen his career – or at least improve his effectiveness. As a starter, the range of outcomes looks something like Tyler Glasnow to Michael Kopech with a real chance that he’s usually too hurt to contribute.

Three More

Jackson Ferris, CHC (19): I knew there was a fifth Jackson I forgot last week. Ferris is the also-ran among the prominent Jacksons in baseball, but he still tracks as a potential Top 100 prospect within the coming years. The southpaw has a repertoire of four average or better offerings backed by presently poor command. He’s posted a 3.38 ERA with 12.38 K/9, 5.30 BB/9, and a 53.4 percent ground ball rate in Low-A.

Brooks Lee (22): The Twins are relatively deep in the middle infield or else Lee would be on the shortlist for a promotion. He’s a well-rounded player who lacks standout tools or notable shortcomings. He’s posted above-MLB-average EVs in Triple-A.

Luisangel Acuna, NYM (21): Since joining the Mets organization, Acuna has cut his swinging strike rate nearly in half. He also cut his power in half. The net result is a sharp decline in offensive value. For now, this has the look of a step back for (hopefully) two steps forward.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Rangers Promote Evan Carter, Place Adolis García On IL

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September 8: Texas officially announced Carter’s promotion and García’s IL placement. The 40-man move is the transfer of Brad Miller from the 10-day to the 60-day IL. Miller has been out since August 2 with a left hamstring strain. He’ll be out for 60 days from the time of that initial placement, meaning he’ll miss the rest of the regular season. Miller could return for the playoffs if Texas qualifies, though he wouldn’t be a lock to appear on the postseason roster regardless.

September 7: The Rangers informed reporters, including Kennedi Landry of MLB.com, that they are promoting outfield prospect Evan Carter. He will take the active roster spot of Adolis García, who will head to the 10-day injured list with a right patellar tendon strain. Carter will require a corresponding move to be added to the 40-man roster, which will be reported on Friday, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today.

It was reported earlier that the Rangers were considering a promotion of Carter, a report which preceded García’s injury. It’s possible that Carter may have been promoted this week regardless, but it seems the issue in García’s knee gave the club enough incentive to pull the trigger and make it happen.

It’s a bit of a belated birthday present for Carter, who turned 21 just over a week ago. The 50th overall selection from the 2020 draft, Carter wasn’t a high-profile prospect at that time but has shot up the rankings since then. Last year, he hit .287/.388/.476 through 100 games at High-A for a wRC+ of 136, indicating he was 36% better than league average. He also stole 26 bases and got a late-season bump to Double-A.

This year, he hit .284/.411/.451 in 97 Double-A games for a 132 wRC+, stealing another 22 bases in the process. He was recently promoted to Triple-A for eight games there but will now get a chance to come up to the big leagues.

Carter is currently considered the #10 prospect in the league by Baseball America, #32 by FanGraphs, #8 by MLB Pipeline, #14 by ESPN and #10 by Keith Law of The Athletic. Each outlet considers him a capable center fielder with a keen eye at the plate, as he has produced double-digit walk rates at each stop of the minor league ladder. The major long-term question seems to be whether or not he will have the power to be more than a speed-and-defense specialist. He hit 11 home runs at High-A last year and has 12 at Double-A this year. But he has a respectable floor even if the power doesn’t develop, thanks to his other tools.

He will now have a chance to see how he fares at the major league level, replacing García, who injured himself crashing into the wall while attempting to catch a home run. Per Landry’s reporting, the Rangers are cautiously optimistic that García has a chance to return this year, but the window will be tight. There are just over three weeks remaining on the regular season schedule, which will be a narrow timeframe for García to return in.

He has been a potent yet volatile part of the club’s lineup, having socked 34 home runs this year but also striking out in 27.4% of his plate appearances. The past month has been a notable low point, as he’s hit just .152/.236/.333 from August 7 to the present, striking out in 37.3% of his trips to the plate in that time. That rough stretch for García has coincided with the club going on a terrible cold streak, falling from first to third in the American League West and half a game behind the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot.

Recent results notwithstanding, García has been one of the club’s best players this year and it will be a challenge to proceed without him. The club will hope that Carter can provide a jolt and their pitching staff can get its act together as they look to finish strong and make the postseason for the first time since 2016.

Carter won’t have enough time to exhaust his rookie status in what remains of the 2023 season, which is notable under the current collective bargaining agreement. If clubs carry a rookie and top prospect on their roster for a full service year, that player can earn the club an extra draft pick by winning Rookie of the Year honors or placing in the top three of Most Valuable Player voting during pre-arbitration years.

Given his lofty prospect status, Carter will be in the mix for those prospect promotion incentives, but that will be a matter for another day. For now, he will be focused on making his major league debut, jumping right into a playoff race and into the Texas outfield alongside Leody Taveras, Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski and J.P. Martínez.

Rangers Have Considered Promotion For Top Prospect Evan Carter

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With the team’s left-handed-hitting outfielders struggling recently, the Rangers have considered a big league promotion for top outfield prospect Evan Carter, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. General manager Chris Young effectively confirmed as much earlier in the week, telling Grant that the team has “not ruled anything out” as it seeks to put forth its best lineup on a nightly basis.

Notably, that comment from Young and Grant’s initial report predate last night’s potential injury for star outfielder Adolis Garcia. The 30-year-old Garcia is slated to undergo an MRI on his right knee, per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today, after landing awkwardly following an attempt to rob a Michael Brantley home run that narrowly cleared the right field wall.

Garcia, hitting .244/.322/.494, has been one of the Rangers’ top power threats and top defensive players this season. Any absence for him — even if only for a few games — would presumably increase the temptation to call Carter to the big leagues as Texas hopes to climb out of its recent skid. The Rangers dropped eight games in a row in August and have won just four of their past 19 contests, dropping from a commanding favorite in the AL postseason hunt to a half-game back of the Blue Jays for the top spot in the Wild Card chase. Texas currently sits three games behind the division-leading Astros and two behind the second-place Mariners.

Carter, 21, was a surprise pick by the Rangers at No. 50 overall in the 2020 draft. Carter wasn’t considered anywhere near that caliber of prospect at the time. He didn’t rank inside MLB.com’s top 200 draft prospects and didn’t even land inside Baseball America’s ranking of the top 500 amateurs in the draft. The canceled high school season that year surely contributed to the general lack of awareness regarding Carter, but the Rangers were convinced of his potential based on prior scouting trips — and it hasn’t taken long for their leap of faith to be proven correct.

Currently, Carter ranks as the No. 8 prospect in the sport at MLB.com, No. 10 on Baseball America’s top 100, and No. 32 at FanGraphs. He opened the 2023 season in Double-A, where he was more than four years younger than the average player, and he’s recently been promoted to Triple-A, where he’s more than six years younger than his average competitor.

Carter breezed through Double-A, batting .284/.411/.451 with a dozen homers, 22 steals (albeit in 32 tries) and a massive 16.3% walk rate — against a less-impressive but hardly alarming 22.3% strikeout rate. In eight games since being bumped to the Rangers’ top affiliate in Round Rock, he’s 12-for-34 (11 singles, one double) with three steals, four walks and six strikeouts. Overall, he’s combined for a .288/.415/.450 slash at the top two minor league levels.

At this point in the season, a promotion to the big leagues for Carter would surely leave his rookie status intact for the 2024 season. That’s of increased importance for teams with regard to their late-season promotions of top prospects, as it keeps them eligible to benefit from the “prospect promotion incentives” (PPIs) in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement. Those incentives can award bonus draft picks to teams whose top prospects finish well in awards voting, and Carter will surely enter next year’s season with the requisite prospect rankings to position the Rangers to potentially gain a coveted draft selection.

Because he was selected out of high school in 2020, Carter has not yet been eligible for the Rule 5 Draft and has thus not yet been selected to the Rangers’ 40-man roster. Texas currently has a full 40-man roster, so they’d need to make some type of transaction in that regard if they ultimately decide to bring Carter to the Majors.

Big Hype Prospects: Gasser, Mead, Vientos, Frelick, Horton

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Big Hype Prospects returns with a peek at the upper minors. Let’s get down to business…

Five Big Hype Prospects

Robert Gasser, 24, SP, MIL (AAA)
90.1 IP, 10.86 K/9, 3.49 BB/9, 4.18 ERA

One of the best pitching prospects remaining in Triple-A, Gasser could find his way into the Milwaukee rotation by the end of the season – if not sooner. Presently, the weak links are Colin Rea and Adrian Houser. Brandon Woodruff is nearing a return to oust one of those swingmen. Gasser is a southpaw with unusual arm action, but the Brewers pitching development staff specializes in the bizarre and grotesque, so Gasser could scarcely be in a better system for his particular brand of pitching. While he doesn’t have visually impressive stuff, the whole repertoire plays up due to plus command. Gasser might have some issues with right-handed batters.

Curtis Mead, 22, 3B, TBR (AAA)
173 PA, 3 HR, 2 SB, .311/.376/.497

The 2023 campaign hasn’t gone Mead’s way. Between missed time and a slow start, the powerful corner-man has only three home runs. Lately, he’s caught fire to the tune of .431/.493/.677 over his last 75 plate appearances, with nine walks and four strikeouts. While he has only one home run during this hot streak, Mead also swatted nine doubles and two triples. Over-the-fence results will come before long. In the meantime, Mead is swinging a big stick with the sorts of exit velocities associated with MLB regulars (89.4-mph average, 109.5-mph max).

Mark Vientos, 1B/3B, 23, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 264 PA, 16 HR, .307/.386/.614

The Mets recently recalled Vientos despite mediocre performance on the farm, as Vientos has hit .264/.316/.472 (90 wRC+) in 57 Triple-A plate appearances since the start of July. He thrived in the minors earlier in the season and certainly deserves an extended look with the retooling Mets. Vientos presents a complicated evaluation, as his positives include plus discipline, premium raw power, and exciting in-game exit velocities. However, scouts point out issues with his swing which could prove exploitable. In 99 career MLB plate appearances, Vientos is batting just .189/.253/.267 despite excellent exit velocities (93.3-mph average, 114.9-mph max). Those are basically the exact same EVs as Juan Soto and MJ Melendez. The Melendez comp is interesting, as the young Royals slugger is having a rough season due partly to swing-and-miss issues and partly to an expansive home venue. Vientos faces similar challenges with his swing and ballpark.

Sal Frelick, OF, 23, MIL (MLB)
(AAA) 183 PA, 2 HR, 8 SB, .237/.333/.342

Recently promoted to Milwaukee, it is hoped Frelick can become a top-of-the-lineup sparkplug. He’s known for discipline and a high rate of contact. He’s also not a particularly impactful hitter. Frelick connects with the same sort of oomph as Whit Merrifield and Steven Kwan. In fact, Kwan isn’t a bad comp – they’re both 5’9’’ left-handed hitting center fielders who fit better defensively in a corner. Frelick has a better chance to stick in center while at the plate, Kwan has superior feel for contact. The end result might wind up in the same neighborhood – a no-doubt Major League starter who nonetheless fits awkwardly within the current roster-design meta.

Cade Horton, 21, SP, CHC (A+)
43 IP, 12.56 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 4.19 ERA

Horton hype season is in full swing. One of the fastest-rising pitching prospects per list-makers, Horton features a typical repertoire with mid-90s heat, multiple breaking balls, and a usable platoon changeup. The Cubs org is well-regarded when it comes to pitch design, a feature Horton could exploit as he moves up the ladder. He has enough feel for command to move quickly once the kid gloves are off. Presently, said gloves are on due to recovery from UCL replacement. He usually takes a week or more between starts of 15 to 20 batters. His last two outings have been among his shakiest of the season.

Three More

Coby Mayo, BAL (21): One of the nice things about Triple-A is access to minor league exit velocities. Mayo may not be hitting well through his first 36 plate appearances in Norfolk, but he has produced encouraging EVs – 90.6-mph average and 111.8-mph max. He’s currently batting .219/.278/.375 with a 36.1 percent strikeout rate.

Colt Keith, DET (21): Another recent promotee to Triple-A, Keith is hitting a modest .274/.347/.403 in 72 plate appearances. His EVs – 88.5-mph average and 108.9-mph max – are in line with figures from last season. I was hoping to see some obvious growth in this respect. His defensive limitations put a lot of pressure on the bat. We’ll see if the coming weeks bring harder contact.

Evan Carter, TEX (20): Despite success in Double-A, Carter has yet to receive a promotion. He’s batting .298/.415/.462 in 316 plate appearances. These stats match the scouting report. He has a superb eye and a solid feel for contact. The quality of that contact is…fine. It’s fine. Really. Given his current prospect pedigree, I’d really like to see better than “fine.”

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

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Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

Rangers Notes: deGrom, Center Field, Carter

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New Rangers ace Jacob deGrom threw 35 pitches while facing several of his teammates in a simulated game setting yesterday, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The two-time Cy Young winner sat 98-99 mph with his heater and reached triple digits on his final pitch of the day. It’s possible that’ll be the only tune-up he needs before stepping into a Cactus League game sometime next week. Whether that’s the next step or whether deGrom needs to face live hitters once more, it’s good news that the righty came away from the session without incident. Rangers fans were holding their breath when deGrom had some tightness in his side and had his throwing program slowed early in camp, but it seems he’s now progressing without restrictions.

Signed to a five-year, $185MM contract over the winter, deGrom has pitched just 156 1/3 innings over the past two seasons due to a forearm injury and a stress reaction in his right shoulder blade.

A bit more on the Rangers…

  • Texas still isn’t sure whether center fielder Leody Taveras will be ready to start the season, as he was been diagnosed with a low-grade oblique strain earlier in the week and won’t even attempt to resume baseball activities until next week, at the earliest. If Taveras is to open the season on the shelf, there are three fairly clear alternate plans in center field: give fleet-footed Bubba Thompson the bulk of the workload while Taveras mends, move Adolis Garcia over from right field, or select the contract of a non-roster player like Travis Jankowski to begin the season (which would require a corresponding 40-man move). Of the bunch, MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry writes that GM Chris Young implied Thompson is the likeliest short-term solution, noting that he’s “ready for the challenge” even if his offensive approach still needs further refinement. It’s a different tone than he struck with regard to the possibility of moving Garcia, on which he stated: “…we’ll have to work through how much it makes sense to move Adolis over at all.”
  • One player who’s not under consideration for an Opening Day roster spot at this time, unsurprisingly, is 20-year-old top prospect Evan Carter, manager Bruce Bochy confirmed to Levi Weaver of The Athletic (Twitter link). The 2020 second-rounder erupted with a combined .295/.397/.489 batting line between High-A and six games at Double-A last year, vaulting himself onto to top prospect rankings at Baseball America (No. 25), MLB.com (No. 41) and Baseball Prospectus (No. 22). However, advanced as Carter’s approach at the plate is — he walked in 13.5% of his plate appearances last year despite facing far older and more experienced competition — Bochy indicated that a leap right to the Majors “would be pushing a kid too much.” Carter has all of 28 plate appearances above A-ball and isn’t on the 40-man roster, so he never seemed a particularly likely option, but it’s still of some note that Bochy confirmed as much. It still stands to reason that if Carter opens the year in Double-A, he could play his way into consideration for a call to the big leagues later in the 2023 campaign.

Big Hype Prospects: Quero, Carter, Graceffo, Painter, Amador

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we take a look at some precocious youngsters in the upper minors.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Edgar Quero, 19, C, LAA (A)
515 PA, 17 HR, 12 SB, .312/.435/.530

Recently selected as the Angels Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America, Quero has surged in the Angels system and likely ranks as their second-best farmhand behind Logan O’Hoppe. For what it’s worth, Baseball America’s midseason update has Quero behind O’Hoppe, Zach Neto, and Ky Bush, but it’s pretty clear to me that he’s since leapfrogged at least Bush.

Quero progressed considerably both offensively and defensively this season. He’s now viewed as likely to not only remain a catcher but to do so as a quality defender. As a hitter, he’s a consistent contact machine with advanced plate discipline for his age. He has a knack for finding gaps (35 doubles, two triples) and could grow into more home run power as he ages. For a 19-year-old with non-elite power (by scouting grade), hitting 17 dingers is a lovely platform. His 8.4 percent swinging strike rate is superior to most teenagers – even those that eventually go on to post high rates of contact. His 12 steals have come in 17 attempts, a sign he might not run much as he advances.

One tiny detail that will often be missed in surface-level analysis – Quero was hit by pitch 21 times. Among Major Leaguers, only Willson Contreras (23) has been hit by more than 20 pitches this season. While Quero’s OBP captures this trait, his walk rate does not. He’s listed as having a 14.2 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. He actually has 94 walks plus hit-by-pitches compared to 91 strikeouts. It’s debatable whether this is a good trait for a minor leaguer since bean balls lead to injuries.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
(A+) 447 PA, 11 HR, 26 SB, .287/.388/.476

Carter, a second-round pick in the weird 2020 draft, was on track to jump onto Top 100 lists last season before a season-ending stress fracture in his back ended his campaign. While that may sound ominous, it’s a simple injury to maintain via core exercises. He spent the bulk of 2022 in High-A, earning a late-season promotion to Double-A in order to continue his season. Per Baseball America, he now ranks above Josh Jung as the Rangers top farm hand.

Carter is frequently praised for his swing decisions, but scouting reports often take time to focus on his weaknesses too. He has the size and physicality of a power hitter. His swing is thought to be prone to ground ball contact, though that didn’t show up in his incredibly balanced batted ball profile in High-A. He’s a capable center fielder whom multiple evaluators comp to Brandon Nimmo due to the discerning eye, a similar left-handed swing, and game power that is expected to underperform his stature. That said, the Rangers are sometimes criticized for asking their prospects to max out on power. Don’t sleep on the potential for 20-or-more homer upside once he’s in his 20s. His max exit velocity is already above the Major League average.

Gordon Graceffo, 22, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 93.2 IP, 7.98 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 3.94 ERA

Graceffo opened 2022 in High-A. In eight starts (45.2 innings), he chewed through the level with a 0.99 ERA, 11.04 K/9, and 0.79 BB/9. He’s performed more ordinarily at Double-A. A 5.07 FIP suggests he’s even struggled a bit more than his ERA portends. He’s performed particularly well of late. In 16.2 innings this month, he’s allowed no runs, five hits, two walks, and two hit batters with 22 strikeouts. His latest start began with five perfect innings before he allowed a hit in the sixth. Unlike most pitching prospects in their second pro season, he’s carried a fairly substantial workload of 139.1 innings. For perspective, only 56 big leaguers have thrown more frames. He also rates 10th among minor leaguers.

He possesses a four-pitch repertoire of above-average offerings complemented with average or better command. In essence, this is the Zac Gallen starter kit. The FanGraphs report mentions the shape of his fastball plays down. Basically, it’s contact-prone and won’t necessarily limit the quality of said contact. This appears to be an organizational shortcoming with the Cardinals – whether by choice, happenstance, or some other reason.

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (AA)
24.1 IP, 11.84 K/9, 0.74 BB/9, 1.11 ERA

Painter is a candidate to claim the mantle of top minor league pitcher once Grayson Rodriguez matriculates. In a past episode of BHP, I compared Painter to Spencer Strider due to what might play as a two-pitch repertoire. Reports have since surfaced that he’s gained confidence in an improved changeup. I also failed to account for their difference in stature – Painter is seven inches taller which greatly affects the shape of his fastball.

While he hasn’t induced quite as many swinging strikes as Strider did through his ascent, Painter has shown better command and pitchability. Given his early success in Double-A following 17 dominant starts in A-ball, he could be on track to debut in 2023. It’s rare for pitchers to reach the Show in their age 20 season. In fact, the youngest pitchers in the Majors this season are 22, though Luis Patino was 20 when he debuted. He even set a season-high of 27 batters faced on September 3, more than most big leaguers face in a start.

Adael Amador, 19, SS, COL (A)
555 PA , 15 HR, 26 SB, .292/.415/.445

Similarly to Quero, Amador remained in Low-A all season where he was able to focus on making modest improvements without being overmatched. He’s seen as a high-probability shortstop prospect who recorded more walks than strikeouts, makes a ton of contact, and isn’t a complete zero in the power department. He hits too much pulled, ground ball contact, but he has plenty of time to make adjustments. Excellent plate discipline is an important and underrated ingredient when it comes to altering a young player’s batted ball profile. While some scouting reports suggest he’ll shift to second base down the line, my own interpretation is that this isn’t strictly necessary. Defensively, he might fit best as a first-division utility man capable of suiting up all over the diamond. Not to say that he’s similar to Chris Taylor, but that role would be an excellent use of Amador’s talents.

Five More

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Like Carter, Chourio earned a promotion to Double-A mostly in order to continue his season. Thus far, he’s just 1-for-11 with three walks and four strikeouts. He’s also just 18-and-a-half, eight months the junior of the next-youngest hitter at the level (see next). If he can salvage a strong finish, he might be on pace to arrive in the Majors as a teenager.

Deyvison De Los Santos, ARI (19): Another promotee for the purpose of extending his season, De Los Santos flashed through Low- and High-A this season while bashing 21 home runs and posting some gaudy BABIPs. Those helped to hide swing-and-miss issues with his approach that at times evokes Pedro Cerrano. Plate discipline remains an ongoing issue for the potent teenager.

Francisco Alvarez, NYM (20): Recently sidelined with a loose body in his ankle, Alvarez returned to action a few days ago. He launched a home run on Tuesday. The Mets have gotten next to no offense from their catchers and might be willing to take desperate measures as the Braves nip at their heels in the NL East race.

Tink Hence, STL (20): Profiled in detail last week, Hence made a third straight scoreless start. He even faced a career-high 16 batters. The Cardinals continue to carefully manage his innings this season, combining short starts with a full week between outings.

Chase Silseth, LAA (22): Though he’s made seven big league appearances spanning 28.2 innings (6.59 ERA), Silseth has yet to appear in Triple-A. The 22-year-old has pitched excellently in Double-A with a 2.28 ERA, 11.93 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, and a flashy 17.8 percent swinging strike rate. He delivered a six-inning scoreless outing on Thursday with nine strikeouts for the Rocket City Trash Pandas.

Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann

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Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429

Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620

After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.

Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA

During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.

Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.

Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA

Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.

In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.

Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.

Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.

Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.

Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.

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