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Marlins Select Robert Garcia, Designate Jeff Lindgren

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The Marlins selected the contract of left-hander Robert Garcia, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald, with righty Jeff Lindgren designated for assignment in a corresponding move. They also optioned Eury Pérez and recalled Sean Reynolds, both of which were reported earlier today.

Garcia, 27, cracks a big league roster for the first time. Originally a Royals prospect, he came over to the Marlins in the minor league portion of the 2021 Rule 5 draft. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a 3.75 ERA in 62 1/3 innings. He struck out 24.5% of batters faced while walking 11.5%. He’s spent all of this year in Triple-A, with his walk rate jumping to 13.3% but his strikeout rate ticking up to 34.2%. He has a 2.95 ERA through 36 2/3 innings this year.

Lindgren, 26, has thrice been added to the Marlins’ roster this year only to be quickly designated for assignment shortly thereafter. He’s tossed seven big league innings over three appearances with a 5.14 ERA. He’s spent more time in Triple-A, with a 4.55 ERA in 61 1/3 innings over 12 starts.

The Marlins will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. Both of his previous DFAs resulted in him clearing waivers and being outrighted to the minors. Players with previous career outrights have the right to reject further assignments in favor of electing free agency. Lindgren could have therefore rejected his second outright but elected to stay in the organization. It’s possible that the same series of events plays out again in the coming days, though that remains to be seen.

Marlins Option Eury Pérez

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The Marlins are optioning right-hander Eury Pérez to the minor leagues, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It might seem like a strange decision at first blush since the rookie has an excellent 2.36 ERA through his first 11 starts, but it was reported earlier that the club was going to manage the youngster’s innings this year.

Pérez came into this season regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in the league, despite a fairly limited track record. He was signed as an amateur in 2019, but then the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020. He made his professional debut in 2021, tossing 78 innings. Last year, he was on pace to eclipse that mark but suffered a lat strain in the summer and was limited to shorter stints upon his return, finishing the year with just 77 innings pitched.

He’s had excellent results everywhere he’s pitched but came into 2023 without having cracked 80 innings in a season. He continued his run of excellent at the start of this year, posting a 2.32 ERA over 31 Double-A innings. He got called up to the majors and has thrived with a 2.36 ERA in 53 1/3 innings, striking out 28.4% of opponents against a 7.9% walk rate. Between Double-A and the majors, he’s already at 84 1/3 innings this year, more than either of the previous two campaigns.

Mish provides some more context in a subsequent tweet, saying that the club had planned on making this move earlier in the year. However, injuries to Johnny Cueto, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, as well as the continued excellence of Perez, pushed them to keep rolling with him for a while longer. Now the All-Star break is imminent and Cueto is nearing a return, putting them in a better position to continue without him. By all accounts, the club is hoping to slow Pérez down, using the less-competitive environment of the minors to manage his workload so that he still has some bullets left for the postseason race or appearing in the playoffs themselves. Mish adds that the timeline of this plan hasn’t yet been definitively worked out.

Subtracting Pérez from the rotation leaves them with Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Bryan Hoeing. Cueto will be rejoining the club after the All-Star break, per Mish, but his role has yet to be determined. He posted a 10.50 ERA over six rehab starts and perhaps the club is hesitant to install him back into a rotation job right away. Cabrera is also working his way back to health and will start a rehab assignment tomorrow, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.

As for Pérez and his service time, he was called up May 10 and wasn’t going to be able to get to a full year here in 2023. He could have been granted the entire year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but that was always going to be a challenge as long as these workload limits were part of the conversation. He would have been in a decent position to qualify for arbitration after 2025 as a Super Two player, though his odds of maintaining that trajectory will be dropped, depending on how the rest of the season plays out.

Marlins Notes: Perez, Cueto, Rogers, Chisholm

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Right-hander Eury Perez has been just about everything the Marlins could have hoped for when they promoted the 20-year-old top prospect to the majors directly from the Double-A level. In eight major league starts this season, Perez has posted a sensational 1.54 ERA in 41 innings of work. While those numbers are already fantastic, Perez has been even more impressive over his last five starts. In that time, he’s allowed a microscopic ERA of just 0.33 while striking out 29 in 27 innings and walking just 7.8% of batters faced. A single solo home run represents the only baserunner to cross home plate against Perez during that period.

With the youngster on such an impressive run of late, one might assume that the Marlins plan to continue riding the wave of Perez’s success as the club attempts to parlay a solid start to the season into a playoff appearance. After all, Miami’s 43-34 record leaves them in second place in their division and firmly in the NL wild card picture alongside the Giants and Dodgers. According to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, however, the plan might not be that simple. While Mish notes that Perez is expected to make at least two more starts, one tomorrow against the Pirates and the other next weekend against the Braves, he also notes that pumping the brakes on Perez from then until after the All Star break is “something [that’s] under consideration.”

Mish’s report comes on the heels of him noting earlier this month that the Marlins were planning to “slow down” Perez in order to manage his innings and hopefully leave him healthy and available for the end of the 2023 campaign and a potential postseason run. Perez has already thrown 72 innings between Double-A and the majors this season despite the fact that he’s never thrown more than 77 innings in a season during his professional career. With Perez’s arm quickly heading toward uncharted territory, it’s somewhat understandable for Miami to exercise caution with their young phenom, even as the club is in the middle of a surprisingly competitive season.

Should Perez indeed take a seat for a few turns through the rotation, the Marlins will have to find another starter to line up alongside Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Bryan Hoeing. Miami’s rotation depth has been tested significantly throughout the season, with each of Edward Cabrera, Johnny Cueto, and Trevor Rogers currently on the injured list. The club has indicated that Cabrera’s stay on the IL is expected to be a brief one, though, and Cueto is also progressing towards a return (as noted by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald) after his third rehab start at the Triple-A level on Thursday.

Rogers, on the other hand, is not expected back any time soon. Per McPherson, the left-hander is dealing with a partial tear in his right lat, an ailment Rogers himself tells reporters is rather rare for left-handed pitchers. On a more optimistic note, Rogers notes that he believes he’ll be able to avoid surgery, and that he’s currently hoping to have more clarity on when he can resume throwing following the All Star break. Rogers, of course, impressed in 2021 with a 2.64 ERA in 133 innings of work en route to the first All Star appearance of his career. The lefty hasn’t measured up to that career year since then, however, with a 5.26 ERA and 4.32 FIP in 27 starts since the start of the 2022 campaign.

McPherson also discussed the timetable for center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s return to action, which manager Skip Schumaker told reporters could come as soon as the club’s upcoming road trip through Boston and Atlanta, which is set to start on Tuesday. It’s been a mixed year for Chisholm so far, as the 25 year old has slashed just .229/.291/.403 coming off an All Star appearance in 2022. That performance is good for a wRC+ of just 90, 10% below league average. On the other hand, the youngster has taken to his new and difficult defensive position admirably despite his lack of experience; his +3 OAA in center field ranks in the 86th percentile of all fielders this season despite Chisholm having played just 39 games.

Big Hype Prospects: Encarnacion-Strand, Lawlar, Perez, Merrill, Amador

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Last week, I described how the Reds might muck about with Elly De La Cruz’s service time – if they chose to do so. Instead, they promptly promoted him. It’s always a relief to see deserving prospects promoted in a timely manner.

To date, De La Cruz is batting .364/.481/.636 in 27 plate appearances with a home run and three steals. His 37 percent strikeout rate is the lone blemish. Like the rookie version of Fernando Tatis Jr., De La Cruz has the capacity to perform despite a high strikeout rate.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
199 PA, 17 HR, .362/.427/.734

Next up in the Reds developmental pipeline is Encarnacion-Strand. Known as CES to those who like to write about him without using 28 characters, the powerful corner infielder has punished opposing pitchers to the tune of .542/.633/1.042 (1.675 OPS) in his last six games. He hit seven singles, three doubles, and three home runs over the span.

There are aspects of his game that can temper enthusiasm. There’s a risk his plate approach and high swinging strike rates could lead to high strikeout rates. At this point, he’s utterly eviscerated Triple-A. It’s time to see if those concerns are warranted. The Reds have a minor issue to resolve when it comes to selecting CES’s promotion date. Joey Votto’s rehab will end in about 12 days. His recovery in Triple-A is progressing at a slow pace. Fitting all three of CES, Votto, and Spencer Steer in the regular lineup could prove challenging – and would cost Tyler Stephenson playing time too. Such impediments shouldn’t block Encarnacion-Strand for much longer.

Jordan Lawlar, 20, SS, ARI (AA)
215 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .238/.335/.443

Considered one of the top athletes in the minors, Lawlar’s time in Double-A hasn’t been all that impressive. However, in the last week, he’s hitting .407/.429/.704 in 28 plate appearances. He has a 1.029 OPS over his last 73 plate appearances. It would seem he’s made an adjustment. Reports from public sources note concerns about his hit tool. Every other aspect of his game is expected to be above average. Lawlar is the penthouse apartment of prospects – he has a high floor and higher ceiling. Presently, he is on pace to debut in 2024.

Eury Perez, 20, SP, MIA (MLB)
29 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 2.17 ERA

Perez is a big part of the Marlins recent success. Already 3-1 in just six starts, Perez hasn’t missed a beat since skipping from Double-A to the Majors in mid-May. His only truly sub-par outing occurred at Coors Field. While ERA-estimators (4.34 FIP, 4.68 xFIP) suggest he’s had some luck with run prevention, this is still an impressive performance from a young 20-year-old (he has a mid-April birthday).

A peek under the hood suggests Perez still has a thing or two to learn about using his repertoire. He’s regularly using all four of his pitches. Hitters have performed well against his 97.5-mph heater, but they’ve struggled versus the offspeed stuff. Perez features a “big” fastball. It shouldn’t perform as a below-average offering. It’s possible he’s trying to make pitches that would work in Double-A but not the Majors. As he acclimates, I expect his fastball to grade out better.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
206 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .257/.296/.387

The third-highest ranked “Jackson” on most prospect lists, Merrill was a contender for Top 10 prospect status over the offseason. He’s backed up a bit in the early going. The Midwest League happens to be one of the more difficult hitting environments in the minors. While the above triple-slash probably looks bad, it’s only six percent below the league average. Merrill is a hit-over-power prospect who produces high-quality, low-angle contact. The left-handed hitter draws a Michael Brantley comp from the folks at FanGraphs. Though injuries have reduced his developmental opportunities, he remains on pace to debut by his age 22 season.

Adael Amador, 20, 2B, COL (A+)
228 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .306/.392/.510

Last season, Amador profiled as a flexible utility fielder. While there’s never been any question about his feel for contact, the quality of that contact often raised eyebrows in a bad way. Amador looks “small” on the field, and that likely colored scouting reports. He’s strengthened over the last year to the point where he’s no longer seen as an ideal utility candidate. He’ll likely plant at second base for the long haul – especially with defensively adept Ezequiel Tovar ahead of him at shortstop. The switch-hitting Amador still has adjustments to make if he’s to make full use of spacious Coors Field. He taps most of his contact on the ground, though the quality of said contact has continually improved over time. Amador has more walks than strikeouts in his professional career and is running a 4.4 percent swinging strike rate this season. He should reach Double-A before much longer.

Three More

Andrew Painter, PHI (20): Painter was on pace to debut as a 19-year-old when a sprained UCL ended his Spring Training bid. He threw a 20-pitch bullpen on Saturday. The coming weeks mark an important step in his recovery.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS (20): Mayer’s time in Double-A isn’t going so hot. The shortstop is batting .154/.227/.333 in 45 plate appearances. A recent report on FanGraphs noted a mechanical shortcoming similar to Jarred Kelenic and Spencer Torkelson – namely, an issue with lifting balls low in the zone.

Connor Norby, BAL (23): There’s no question the Orioles have a lot of infield depth. I’m often asked whom I believe they’ll trade from that depth. Norby is my answer. The short right-handed hitter doesn’t have the utility of others in the system. He’s Major League adjacent and primed for a regular role within the next year. However, he profiles more like a core performer than a high-ceiling star.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Phillies, Mets

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Marlins left-hander Trevor Rogers didn’t make his scheduled rehab start yesterday due to an issue in his non-throwing shoulder, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The club is currently waiting for medical results before making a decision on how to proceed with Rogers, who could be back on the mound in Triple-A as soon as early next week if the impending medical update is encouraging. Rogers has made just four starts for the Marlins this year while battling a biceps strain. In those starts, Rogers posted a solid 4.00 ERA (111 ERA+) with a 4.11 FIP and 19 strikeouts in 18 innings of work, though he did struggle with his command as he hit three batters and walked six in that time.

After Rogers’s setback, the Marlins may be left looking for rotation options in the near future, as Mish indicates that the club is hoping to “slow down” youngster Eury Perez, who has already pitched 60 innings this season between Triple-A and the majors after throwing just 77 innings total last season. The 20-year-old phenom has been excellent in 29 innings in the majors this season, with a sterling 2.17 ERA. That being said, Perez’s 24.8% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, and unsightly 27.3% groundball rate all leave something to be desired, resulting in a less inspiring 4.34 FIP.

Mish suggests that the Marlins may limit the young right-hander to somewhere between 100 and 115 innings during the 2023 campaign, and the club is hoping to have Perez available later in the season. A natural time to slow Perez down seemed to be on the horizon with Rogers’s pending return, but with the lefty’s timetable less clear, the Marlins may need to look elsewhere to cover for Perez’s starts if they wish to manage his innings headed into the summer.

More from around the NL East…

  • Phillies fans got positive injury news regarding a pair of young right-handers yesterday, as Rule 5 draft pick Noah Song is set to begin work in sim games in the coming week, as noted by Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. Song posted impressive numbers in 2019 after the Red Sox drafted him in the fourth round of that year’s draft, though he has not thrown a profession pitch since due to his service as an officer in the US Navy from 2020-2022 and this year’s injury woes. Coffey also notes that top pitching prospect Andrew Painter, who has been out since Spring Training while rehabbing a UCL sprain, threw a 20-pitch bullpen session yesterday. A consensus top prospect int he sport ranked as high as #5 by Baseball America entering the 2023 season, the 20-year-old Painter seemed poised to claim the fifth starter job in Philadelphia before the UCL injury left him shut down from baseball activity. Painter’s return to the mound is sure to breed optimism among fans in Philadelphia, though Coffey notes that manager Rob Thomson gave no update to Painter’s timetable for return ahead of yesterday’s bullpen session.
  • Mike Puma of the New York Post suggested today that the Mets could look to skip the next start of right-hander Tylor Megill, who has struggled to a 5.14 ERA in 63 innings as a regular member of the club’s rotation this season. Things have gotten particularly difficult for Megill over the past three weeks, and the young right-hander has posted a ghastly 8.64 ERA in his last four starts, walking a whopping twelve batters while striking out just fourteen in 16 2/3 innings of work. As Puma notes, the club won’t require a fifth starter until they face the Astros on June 20, allowing them to either skip Megill’s next start and use him out of the bullpen for a period of time, or perhaps option Megill to Triple-A before giving Joey Lucchesi or David Peterson a look in the rotation. Manager Buck Showalter acknowledged that coming off days provide the club with flexibility, “especially in the bullpen if we wanted to add an arm.”

Marlins Select Eury Perez, Designate Chi Chi Gonzalez For Assignment

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The Marlins have officially selected top prospect Eury Perez to both the active and 40-man rosters. The 20-year-old right-hander will start tonight’s game against the Reds. To clear room for Perez on the roster, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald notes that the club has designated right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez for assignment.

The move comes as little surprise, as Perez’s pending promotion had been reported earlier this week. A consensus top 10 prospect in the entire sport, Perez will skip the Triple-A level entirely and make his MLB debut less than a month after celebrating his 20th birthday. So far this season, Perez has posted a 2.32 ERA, 35.9% strikeout rate, and 51.6% groundball rate through six starts at the Double-A level.

Making room on the roster for Perez is Gonzalez, a former first round pick by the Rangers in the 2013 draft. Gonzalez made his MLB debut in 2015, but over seven seasons in the major leagues has struggled to match the promise of his former top prospect status, with a career 5.64 ERA in 287 1/3 innings of work. Having been used primarily as a starter throughout most of his career, Gonzalez has found some success with the Marlins as a reliever in 2023, albeit in a microscopic sample. In 2 2/3 innings of work with Miami this season, Gonzalez has allowed one run on four hits while striking out two and walking one.

Should Gonzalez go unclaimed on waivers, he will have the option to reject an outright assignment to the minor leagues, both as a player with more than three years of service time and as a player who has already received an outright assignment in the past.

Marlins To Promote Eury Pérez

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The Marlins announced to reporters, including Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, they are calling up pitching prospect Eury Pérez. He’ll take the ball for Friday’s game. He’s not currently on the 40-man roster and will require a corresponding move to be added.

Both this move and Pérez himself are unique in a few respects. The promotion is an aggressive one given that the right-hander only just turned 20 years old last month and has yet to pitch in Triple-A. That makes him unusually young for a major league debut, with JJ Cooper of Baseball America pointing out Pérez is about to be the youngest starting pitcher in the majors since Julio Urías in 2016. The pitcher himself is also unique in terms of his size, listed at 6’8″ and 220 pounds.

Signed as an international amateur out of the Dominican Republic in July of 2019, he wasn’t able to make his professional debut until over a year later since the minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020. The Marlins sent him to Single-A to begin 2021 and he dominated in his 15 starts there. He posted a 1.61 ERA in 56 innings, striking out 36.9% of opponents while walking 9.5% and getting grounders at a 36.4% clip. He was then given the ball for five High-A starts at the end of the year, posting a 2.86 ERA in those.

Going into 2022, he was already considered by many observers to be one of the better pitching prospects in the league, but he continued to raise his stock. Despite just being 19 years old for most of last year, he made 17 starts at the Double-A level. He posted a 4.08 ERA in those along with a 34.1% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 41.4% ground ball rate.

Coming into 2023, the youngster was unanimously considered to be one of the best prospects in the league. Baseball America ranked him #7 overall and he’s since moved up to #6. MLB Pipeline had him at #13 and he’s now in the top 10. He was #4 at FanGraphs, #6 at ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic had him at #10. The reports highlight his fastball, which he can not only ramp up to triple digits but also command exceptionally well. Most observers agree that his changeup is his best secondary pitch, though his slider and curveball both get good reviews as well. By all accounts, Pérez has the ingredients to be a future ace and he keeps proving it. Through his six Double-A starts this year, he has a 2.32 ERA, 35.9% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.6% ground ball rate.

That being said, not all prospects hit the ground running as soon as they reach the majors and it’s not something that should be expected for even the top names. That’s especially true for Pérez given his youth and relative inexperience. His entire professional track record consists of just 186 innings at this point, including just 77 last year, and none of that was at Triple-A. He’s yet to truly test his stuff against big league caliber hitters and it remains to be seen how many innings the Marlins will let him rack up this year. Nonetheless, it will be very exciting to see how the gamble pays off for them.

The club has had a strong rotation for many years and felt good enough about their options that they traded Pablo López to the Twins this winter in order to obtain Luis Arraez. However, they’ve been dealing with a few challenges this year, as both Trevor Rogers and Johnny Cueto are on the injured list with uncertain return timelines. Jesús Luzardo is having a nice season so far but Sandy Alcantara hasn’t quite been his Cy Young self, while Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera have each posted middling results so far.

Pérez will now step into that mix and see how he fares, with his performance likely to have some impact on whether this is a brief cup of coffee or if he’s up for good. Since the season is over a month old at this point, Pérez won’t be able to accrue a full year of service time the old fashioned way, though the new collective bargaining agreement affords him a path to get there. A player with less than 60 days of service time who is on two of the top 100 prospect lists at BA, MLB or ESPN will get a full year of service, regardless of the time they spend on the roster, if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting. Pérez was on all three of those lists and is therefore eligible, but it will be a challenge to rank that highly given the late start. He’ll be competing with players like Corbin Carroll and James Outman who have already had plenty of time to bank stats this year.

Even if he finished the year shy of the one-year mark, his youth would still put him on a good trajectory. If he’s up for good, he would almost certainly qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player after the 2025 campaign and be on pace for free agency after 2029, which would be his age-26 season. Future optional assignments could push those targets further into the future, though he could also reach free agency after 2028 by succeeding in getting that full year here in 2023.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Big Hype Prospects: Moreno, Ortiz, Casas, Perez, Rafaela

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we catch up on some pre-holiday shopping.

Five BHPs In The News

Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 267 PA, 3 HR, 7 SB, .315/.386/.420

Moreno headlined the Diamondbacks return in the Daulton Varsho trade. FanGraphs describes him as “the most athletic catcher to come along since J.T. Realmuto.” Last season, Moreno continued to put his contact skills on display. A brief 73 plate appearance trial in the Majors yielded a high batting average and tiny 11.0 percent strikeout rate. He generally produces modest exit velocities with a low angle of contact. In plain english, power isn’t a big part of his game, but he’ll be a valuable hitter all the same. He’ll need to make substantial adjustments to ever become a regular 20 homer threat.

There are questions about his ability to carry a full workload given that he’s never topped 350 plate appearances in a season. He’s considered an above average defender with sufficient athleticism to improve. With Carson Kelly still in-house, the Diamondbacks can consider platooning Moreno between catcher and designated hitter while working on his durability.

Luis Ortiz, 23, SP, PIT (MLB)
(AA) 114.1 IP, 9.92 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 4.64 ERA

The lightbulb clicked for Ortiz partway through the 2022 campaign. His command improved as he became more aggressive with his domineering stuff leading to a successful 10 inning stint in Triple-A followed by 16 more frames in the Majors. Given his lack of Triple-A experience, it’s understandable why the Pirates have gone out of their way to delay Ortiz’s arrival via the signings of Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill. Ortiz has impressive Statcast measurables. Health permitting, he’s on pace to soon form a potent one-two punch with Roansy Contreras in the Pirates rotation.

Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (MLB)
(AAA) 317 PA, 11 HR, .273/.382/.481

Virtually everybody in baseball is ready to see Casas sink or swim as the Red Sox first baseman of the present and future. The only barrier entering this offseason was a certain veteran. Removing Eric Hosmer from the roster ensures manager Alex Cora won’t have to juggle any difficult decisions. Casas had a mixed 95 plate appearance debut last season, showing power and discipline but posting a poor .197 batting average. In this case, his .208 BABIP appears especially fluky. If anything, his batting profile is that of a high-BABIP hitter. Some of his at bats felt like he was selling out for contact (my personal observation, not that of a scout), a common “mistake” among debut hitters. Look for him to further refine his approach and consistency in 2023.

Eury Perez, 19, SP, MIA (AA)
75 IP, 12.72 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 4.08 ERA

On the shortlist with Andrew Painter for most exciting teenaged pitching prospect, Perez is one of the reasons the Marlins are shopping Major League starting pitchers. He’s on pace to arrive in the second half of 2023. Scouts laud his excellent fastball command and biting slider. He’s a skyscraper of a man whose very size ensures a unique look. Scouts believe his changeup can develop into a weapon as well. His curveball is seen as a less competitive offering that can play up based on the effectiveness of his other pitches.

It’s worth mentioning this is the organization that, a decade ago, jumped a 20-year-old Jose Fernandez straight from High-A to the Majors. Of course, none of those decision-makers remain on hand, making it highly unlikely we see a repeat with Perez.

Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (AA)
(A+/AA) 522 PA, 21 HR, 28 SB, .299/.342/.539

The Red Sox are reportedly shopping their prospects for upgrades with Rafaela serving as the most-highly valued of the bunch. Rafaela wasn’t a consensus top prospect in the Red Sox system prior to last season. Now he’s widely considered their third-best farmhand behind Marcelo Mayer and Casas. He displayed a tantalizing mix of power and speed last season, though there are still worrisome signs with his offensive stats. He lacks discipline and carries a high swinging-strike rate. Hitters who thrive with the Javy Baez profile are few and far between.

Should his discipline and whiff issues become an impediment, Rafaela has super utility man potential. He’s presently being trained as a center fielder. He also played 12 games at shortstop last season and has prior experience at second and third base. He’s considered an above average outfielder. I do not have reports on his infielding acumen.

Three More

Corbin Carroll, ARI (22): Although there was little doubt Carroll would start for the 2023 Diamondbacks, the Varsho trade all but ensures an Opening Day role. A line drive machine with excellent discipline in the minors, Carroll had a mixed debut. His 130 wRC+ in 115 big league plate appearances belied below average exit velocities and merely average discipline. Look for those traits to dramatically improve throughout 2023.

Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Another “winner” of the Varsho trade, Fletcher no longer has an entire squadron of outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart. Should Alek Thomas continue to struggle and Jake McCarthy suffer a sophomore slump, then Fletcher might just worm his way into the Arizona lineup. Likelier, he’ll serve as trade bait. The Diamondbacks still need pitching depth.

Kumar Rocker, TEX (22): Kumar made his debut in the Arizona Fall League, pitching 14 innings with mixed results. His 18 strikeouts were encouraging, but they were offset by 12 walks and a 4.50 ERA. He appeared in the news this last week in connection to Carlos Correa’s delayed contract with the Mets. New York selected Rocker in the first round of the 2021 draft only to back out of their deal over concerns with his physical.

Latest On Potential Trade Scenarios For Marlins’ Rotation

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It’s been widely reported over the past several months — really, dating back to last offseason — that the Marlins are open to dealing from their wealth of starting pitching depth in order to solidify other needs on the roster. That’s led to righty Pablo Lopez, who drew strong interest from the Yankees and the Dodgers at the trade deadline, being one of the most heavily speculated-upon trade candidates of the 2022-23 offseason. However, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes in his latest Marlins notebook column that the team may be more open to moving left-hander Trevor Rogers than Lopez.

The 25-year-old Rogers is coming off a down year — nowhere near the excellent season enjoyed by Lopez — but would appeal to other teams in a different capacity. While acquiring Lopez would likely require trading a bevy of prospects for a pitcher at his value’s peak, Rogers is more of a buy-low option on the heels of a down 2022 season. The former first-round pick was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up to Jonathan India in 2021, when he tossed 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball with a hefty 28.6% strikeout rate and a solid enough 8.4% walk rate.

The 2022 season was a brutal sophomore campaign for Rogers, however. Back spasms and a lat strain prompted a pair of IL stints for the 6’5″ lefty, and his results when healthy enough to take the mound didn’t even come close to that brilliant rookie output. In 107 innings, Rogers worked to a 5.47 ERA that was more than double his 2021 mark, and his strikeout rate fell by more than six percentage points (to 22.2%) while his walk rate crept up to 9.4%. After allowing just 0.41 homers per nine innings in 2021 (1.1% of his opponents took him deep), Rogers yielded an average of 1.26 homers per nine frames (3.1%).

In addition to the discrepancy between the pair’s 2022 seasons, Lopez is under team control for only two more years and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.6MM in his second year of arbitration. Rogers, meanwhile, is not yet arbitration-eligible and can be controlled for another four seasons. Both players would be highly appealing to the majority of clubs seeking rotation help this offseason, but a win-now club might feel better about plugging the veteran Lopez into its rotation, as he’s coming off a career-high 180 innings and has worked to a combined 3.52 ERA (3.48 FIP, 3.69 SIERA) over his past three seasons.

As was the case last offseason, it’s not a lock that the Marlins will trade any of their current big league rotation options. Many similar rumblings echoed throughout the 2021-22 offseason, but at the end of the day, the most notable arm the Fish had moved was right-hander Zach Thompson, who’d been their fifth starter. That the Marlins are open to moving Lopez and perhaps even more open to moving Rogers is notable, but that hardly means they plan to shop either pitcher and trade him for the best offer.

Rather, Miami appears likely to again set its sights on solidifying its center field vacancy this offseason. That didn’t transpire last year, and the team instead relied entirely on in-house options — most of whom were corner outfielders that were clearly miscast in center. Jesus Sanchez, former top prospect JJ Bleday and Bryan De La Cruz all logged significant time in center, but none of that trio drew particularly strong defensive grades for their efforts there.

Looking ahead to 2023, Miami will have to hope for better results from Avisail Garcia in one corner outfield spot and could again look to the trio of Sanchez, Bleday and De La Cruz as outfield components — though this time more likely in whichever corner is not occupied by Garcia. Jackson writes within his column that the bulk of Jorge Soler’s playing time will likely come at designated hitter next season, so he looks like an occasional outfield option, at best.

While center field is perhaps the most obvious area of need, Miami could also use upgrades at a variety of positions. Third base seems like another possible focus, and Miami lacks an obvious first baseman aside from Garrett Cooper, who’s been a candidate to be traded himself dating back to the deadline.

Of course, most fans salivate over the mere notion of 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara being made available in a trade, but with four years remaining on an affordable contract, there’s little to no hope of such a scenario actually transpiring. Alcantara is a veritable lock to be Miami’s Opening Day starter in 2023, and if Lopez isn’t traded, he’ll presumably slot into the second spot in the rotation. The Marlins will also lean on a resurgent Jesus Luzardo and hard-throwing righty Edward Cabrera — a longtime top prospect who broke out with a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts last year.

Rogers and fellow southpaw Braxton Garrett are the favorites to occupy the fifth spot in the rotation, particularly with top prospects Max Meyer (Tommy John), Jake Eder (Tommy John) and Sixto Sanchez (shoulder) all recovering from surgery. Right-hander Eury Perez reached Double-A at just 19 years of age in 2023 and could be another rotation option before long; he’s widely considered to be among the ten best prospects in all of baseball and, unsurprisingly, is considered squarely off the table (as is the case with Alcantara), per Jackson’s report.

Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

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