Ender Inciarte

The Braves have shut down outfielder Ender Inciarte from physical activity, manager Brian Snitker told reporters including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). He’s not going to be a part of the team’s upcoming divisional series roster.

Inciarte had hoped to appear in the team’s final series of the regular season. But it didn’t go well when he tested out his injured hamstring today. The decision was made that he simply won’t be ready when the NLDS gets underway on October 3rd.

Going without Inciarte isn’t a huge surprise at this point, and the impact is mitigated somewhat by the fact that Nick Markakis was able to return from his own significant injury. The club can still trot out Billy Hamilton in a run-and-glove role, too, though he’s not to Inciarte’s standard with the bat.

At this point, at least, the Atlanta organization isn’t ruling Inciarte out for a hypothetical championship series round return. But he’ll need to rest up and test the hammy once more. And it’ll take a bit of a leap of faith to activate him at that point, given the risk of aggravating the injury and the fact that he hasn’t seen live game action in months.

The Braves are hopeful that outfielder Ender Inciarte will be ready for activation early next week, manager Brian Snitker tells reporters including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Inciarte is working to recover from a hamstring strain.

When the injury initially occurred one month ago, it was estimated at a four to six week recovery timeframe. Inciarte is already hitting and running, so it seems he’s at the early end of the spectrum.

That’s great news for the Atlanta organization, particularly since the organization just lost two top reserve players to injury. Optimally, Inciarte would get at least a decent run of live action at the tail end of the regular season to ramp up for the playoffs.

Trouble is, there’s only a brief window left. And the Braves must balance the desire to get the outfielder reps — and assess his readiness to contribute — with the need to avoid further injury. As Snitker puts it, “reports are good” on Inciarte’s progress as he ramps up, “but what he does in drills is a lot different than taxing it and playing in games.”

No matter what happens with Inciarte, the Braves are well covered in the outfield. In addition to star Ronald Acuna, the club has welcomed back Nick Markakis from his own lengthy rehab stint and added speed-and-glove switch-hitter Billy Hamilton. With lefty bench bat Matt Joyce also in the mix for a postseason roster spot, along with right-handed hitters Adam Duvall and Austin Riley, it’ll be interesting to see how the outfield logjam is resolved if Inciarte is able to get back and show he’s healthy.

10:02pm: Inciarte’s injury does indeed look “significant,” Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. The Braves will further evaluate him Saturday.

7:17pm: Already facing mounting health challenges, the Braves are now left with another potentially significant injury. Center fielder Ender Inciarte was removed from tonight’s game with what the team is labeling a right hamstring injury, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution was among those to cover on Twitter.

After a slow start at the plate, Inciarte suffered a lumbar strain that robbed him of a significant chunk of the season. While his status with the club once seemed in question, Inciarte has been on fire at the plate since returning. He’s now a critical part of the team’s outfield mix with Nick Markakis and Austin Riley on the shelf (and the latter having endured a lengthy slump).

While we won’t know more about Inciarte’s status until he has undergone further medical review, it’s quite worrisome to see him limp off with a hammy problem. There are just six weeks left in the regular season, with the postseason beckoning thereafter, so there’s not much time to give a significant muscle injury adequate rest. The club will have to hope that it’s just a low-grade strain.

Earlier today, the Braves demoted Adam Duvall and Johan Camargo, both of whom have struggled at the plate in recent weeks. The former seems like an obvious replacement option — that’s the entire reason he was tendered a contract and kept all season long, after all — and he’ll be able to come right back from Gwinnett without waiting the usual ten days if Inciarte hits the injured list. But that would leave a suboptimal outfield group to supplement Ronald Acuna, with Duvall potentially joining Matt Joyce, Charlie Culberson, and Rafael Ortega as options.

If Inciarte ends up being diagnosed with a significant injury, it’s likely the Braves will end up taking a hard look at the waiver wire for upgrades. Left-handed-hitting speed demon Billy Hamilton did just come available today; he carries a generally similar profile to Inciarte, albeit with much lesser abilities with the bat. Some will no doubt raise the call for top prospects Christian Pache and Drew Waters. It’d certainly be a bold and fascinating gambit for the team to promote either of the talented twenty-year-olds, though there’s no real indication whether that will seriously be considered.

Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte is facing an uncertain future as the trade deadline approaches, having struggled this season and lost his place as a regular in the club’s lineup. Despite his downturn in playing time, Inciarte told Jeff Schultz of The Athletic (subscription link) that he has no desire to leave the Braves.

“I haven’t heard if I’m going to get traded or not,” said Inciarte, who added: “If you ask me, would I rather be somewhere else, the answer is I’d rather not. I love Atlanta. There’s not any other uniform I’d like to wear.”

Rookie Austin Riley swiped Inciarte’s starting role after the veteran went to the injured list with a lumbar strain May 15. Inciarte returned a week ago after a two-month absence, but he has only collected 10 plate appearances since then. The Braves have typically deployed an outfield consisting of Riley in left, Ronald Acuna Jr. in center (Inciarte’s usual position) and Nick Markakis in right since Inciarte went down.

The Braves’ new outfield (mostly Acuna) has notched good production, though Riley’s numbers have tanked since a sizzling start. In the aggregate, though, Riley’s .246/.298/.504 line with 16 home runs in 242 PA far outpaces the .205/.293/.303 slash and two HRs Inciarte has put up across 150 PA. Moreover, the 28-year-old Inciarte owns the majors’ second-lowest average exit velocity (78.3 mph), per Statcast, which doesn’t show much of a gap between his paltry .262 weighted on-base average and his .271 expected wOBA. Needless to say, those numbers don’t bode well for a turnaround.

It’s true that Inciarte has never been an offensive force, but he was almost a league-average hitter with the Diamondbacks and Braves from 2014-18. Combining that with stellar defense and quality base running was enough to make Inciarte a solid starter prior to this season, and it helped convince the Braves to ink him to a five-year, $30.525MM extension in advance of the 2017 campaign. Thanks to that deal, Inciarte’s playing this year on a $5MM salary and will earn a combined $15MM over the next two seasons ($7MM in 2020, $8MM in ’21). Not long ago, those looked like bargain figures for Inciarte, but his disastrous 2019 – along with lessening his importance to the Braves  – has surely done a number on his trade value.