Emmet Sheehan

Emmet Sheehan Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By Darragh McDonald | May 16, 2024 at 5:55pm CDT

The Dodgers announced that right-hander Emmet Sheehan underwent surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow yesterday. They didn’t announced whether it was full Tommy John surgery or the internal brace alternative, but a source tells Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic that it was TJS, which Ardaya relayed on X.

Sheehan, 24, was slated to compete for a rotation spot coming into this year. But in early March, he experienced some shoulder discomfort and general soreness, which led manager Dave Roberts to relay that Sheehan would be starting the season on the injured list. Though it was a shoulder injury that initially was the problem, when he was placed on the IL, his injury was described as forearm inflammation. He was transferred to the 60-day IL in late March when the club selected Nabil Crismatt to the roster.

In mid-April, he began throwing to live hitters but Roberts said that his arm “hasn’t been responding” the way team staff had hoped. The club hasn’t provided any details about Sheehan to the public in about a month but it seems that a determination was made behind the scenes that he would require surgery.

It’s obviously an unfortunate blow for both Sheehan and the team. The righty made his major league debut last year age the age of 23. He tossed 60 1/3 innings for the Dodgers over 11 starts and two relief appearances. He allowed 4.92 earned runs per nine innings in that time, striking out 25.8% of batters faced while issuing walks at a 10.5% clip. He had been even better in the minors, with a 2.43 ERA in 2023 and a 2.91 mark the year prior. Given those strong minor league numbers and his youth, it would have been fair to think a step forward in the major leagues was forthcoming in 2024.

Instead, it will now go down as a lost season for Sheehan. If there’s one silver lining for him, it’s that he’ll stay on the 60-day injured list all season, collecting major league pay and service time. He will miss a portion of 2025 as well, depending on the eventual progression of his rehab.

For the Dodgers, this will further add to the number of days missed by pitchers on their staff this year. Sheehan is one of 11 Dodgers pitchers currently on the injured list, joined by Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Kyle Hurt, Bobby Miller, Ryan Brasier, Connor Brogdon, Brusdar Graterol, Joe Kelly and Evan Phillips.

Some of those injuries were known coming into the year, as a few of those guys underwent significant surgeries last year. Still, it’s remarkable that the club hasn’t been hurt too much by all that talent that’s not currently on the roster. The Dodgers are 29-16 right now and have a 7.5-game lead in the National League West. Their pitching staff has a collective ERA of 3.16, which is third in the league, behind only the Red Sox and Yankees.

The starting staff currently consists of Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and Gavin Stone, though the club is also doing occasional bullpen games to give each pitcher five days off between outings. That’s led to guys like Ryan Yarbrough, Elieser Hernández and Michael Grove picking up bulk work here and there.

Sheehan’s surgery means he won’t be able to return later in the year for extra depth, so the Dodgers will be hoping some of the other ten guys on the injured list are able to make it back to the club before the injury bug bites them again.

Dodgers Shut Emmet Sheehan Down; Walker Buehler Could Return Soon

By Steve Adams | April 15, 2024 at 2:08pm CDT

Dodgers right-hander Emmet Sheehan hasn’t pitched this season while rehabbing from a forearm injury. He’d recently resumed throwing to live hitters, but manager Dave Roberts told reporters last night that the 24-year-old righty has been shut back down because his arm “hasn’t been responding” the way Dodgers medical personnel hoped (link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). Sheehan said he had another round of testing on his arm that didn’t reveal any structural damage, but Roberts still called his injury a “longer-term situation.” The Dodgers had already transferred him to the 60-day injured list at the end of March.

Sheehan entered the 2023 season as one of the Dodgers’ top pitching prospects and pushed his way into top-100 consideration with a strong minor league showing early last year. By mid-June, he was up in the big leagues for his debut. While the right-hander’s 4.92 ERA in a subsequent sample of 60 1/3 innings didn’t exactly cement him as a long-term fixture just yet, he entered camp as perhaps the favorite to land a rotation spot behind Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bobby Miller and James Paxton. That spot instead went to fellow righty Gavin Stone, who started his 2024 campaign with two shaky starts before an excellent third outing that saw him carry a perfect game into the sixth inning before running into trouble.

The setback for Sheehan creates further uncertainty in a Dodgers’ rotation that also has Miller, Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May on the injured list. Sheehan’s status on the 60-day IL already meant he was out until at least mid-May, but there’s no way to gauge how long he might be expected to miss right now.

The Dodgers still rank tenth in the majors in rotation ERA, thanks in no small part to a dominant start to the season from Glasnow. Some alarm bells sounded when Yamamoto was torched for five runs in one inning during his MLB debut, but he’s responded by rattling off 15 innings with just three runs allowed while posting a terrific 19-to-3 K/BB ratio. Paxton has quality run-prevention numbers, but his success isn’t sustainable if he keeps walking more hitters than he’s striking out. He’s issued 14 free passes in 16 innings, yielding a walk to a glaring 20.6% of his opponents on the season. He’s fanned just ten (14.7%).

In Glasnow and Paxton, the Dodgers are banking on a pair of oft-injured veterans to help lead the staff while awaiting the returns of Buehler, Kershaw and May. Buehler is expected to make another rehab start this Thursday, per Mike DiGiovanna and Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. His most recent rehab outing was cut short when a comebacker struck his pitching hand, but Buehler escaped that injury scare unscathed. Roberts indicated that Buehler is targeting 80 to 85 pitches in that scheduled Thursday outing. He’ll be reevaluated after that point. If the team feels he’s ready, that’d point to a return next week. If he needs one more rehab start following Thursday’s outing, he could still return in the final days of April.

Dodgers Place Four Pitchers On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | March 19, 2024 at 10:11pm CDT

The Dodgers finalized their roster for the Seoul Series this evening. Los Angeles didn’t make any 40-man transactions but did place four pitchers on the 10-day injured list: Walker Buehler, Emmet Sheehan, Brusdar Graterol and Blake Treinen.

None of those is all that unexpected. The Dodgers announced early in camp that they’d start Buehler on the IL so as not to push him too quickly after missing last season working back from his second Tommy John procedure. The team announced Sheehan’s injury as forearm inflammation. That’s a little surprising at first glance, considering they’d previously said he was dealing with shoulder discomfort. Fortunately, Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reports (on X) that this isn’t a new injury and Sheehan is throwing to hitters.

Graterol and Treinen were each banged up in spring. Graterol has been delayed by hip tightness and inflammation in his throwing shoulder. The Dodgers announced the latter injury as the reason for the IL placement. Treinen suffered a bruised lung when he was hit by a comebacker in a Spring Training game on March 9.

None of the injuries seem all that serious, as the Dodgers appear to be playing things cautiously with this series. The placements could afford an opportunity for righty Landon Knack to make his major league debut. He’ll get a spot in the season-opening bullpen after the Dodgers selected his contract over the winter.

Knack, 26, was a senior sign out of East Tennessee State in 2020. The former second-round pick has posted strong numbers in his minor league career. He turned in a 2.51 ERA over 22 starts between the top two minor league levels last season.

Of course, L.A.’s more anticipated first big league outing will come on Thursday. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is tabbed to start the second game of the season opposite Joe Musgrove. It’ll be Yu Darvish and Tyler Glasnow kicking things off on Wednesday.

Emmet Sheehan To Begin Season On Dodgers’ Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | March 9, 2024 at 2:23pm CDT

Dodgers right-hander Emmet Sheehan will start the season on the injured list, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). Sheehan has yet to pitch this spring due to some shoulder discomfort and what Roberts described as general body soreness earlier this week, though Roberts initially indicated a few days ago that Sheehan could be ready for the Dodgers’ first game in North America on March 28.

The 2024 season gets underway earlier than usual for the Dodgers, who face the Padres in a two-game series in Seoul on March 20-21. The team then has a couple of days off to recover from jet lag before facing the Angels in the final three games of the Spring Training schedule, and then starts the rest of their 160-game slate by hosting the Cardinals on March 28 when the rest of the league also gets into action. Technically, a 15-day IL placement for Sheehan would mean that he’d miss only one start given the unusual nature of the schedule, though it stands to reason that L.A. will give him as much time as he needs to fully recover and get ready for regular trips to the mound.

A sixth-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2021 draft, Sheehan made his MLB debut last season and posted a 4.92 ERA over 60 1/3 innings. Sheehan probably wouldn’t have risen to the Show quite so quickly if the Dodgers hadn’t been so snakebitten by rotation injuries, yet he at least held his own against big league hitters despite some unimpressive hard-contact and walk rates.

Though Sheehan has only 9 2/3 Triple-A innings on his resume, he did enough in his first taste of the majors to put himself into the competition for the fifth spot in the Dodgers’ rotation at the start of camp. This injury will now put that quest on hold, and might ultimately turn Sheehan into more of a Triple-A depth arm depending on how his health progresses, and how many of the regular starters miss time on the IL.

Since Sheehan no longer in the mix, Michael Grove, rookies Gavin Stone and Kyle Hurt, and swingman Ryan Yarbrough are all in the running for starts. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton, and Bobby Miller make up the top four in the Los Angeles rotation, and Walker Buehler is also expected to start the season on the IL as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May should also factor into the mix after the midpoint of the season.

Dodgers Notes: Muncy, Rotation, Thor

By Nick Deeds | June 24, 2023 at 8:34pm CDT

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters today (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that he expects infielder Max Muncy to return to the lineup at third base for Tuesday’s game against the Rockies in Denver. J.P. Hoornstra of The Orange County Register adds that the club will wait to see how Muncy feels following Tuesday’s game before determining whether or not he’s ready to play on back-to-back days.

Muncy’s return figures to provide a huge boost to a beleaguered Dodgers club that’s been outscored 44-29 since he last played on June 11. While the 32-year-old slugger has hit above the Mendoza line just once in the past four seasons, his overall slash line of .214/.342/.450 is good for a wRC+ that’s 18% better than league average during that time frame. That’s thanks to Muncy sporting a combination of power and plate discipline that stands among the game’s best. Since joining the Dodgers in 2018, Muncy ranks 4th in the NL in both walk rate (15.4%) and home runs (157). Michael Busch has held down the fort at third base while Muncy was on the shelf.

Also set to re-join the club in the coming days is lefty Julio Urias, who Hoornstra notes is expected to return to the club during next weekend’s series in Kansas City. A free agent at season’s end, Urias will look to improve upon the uncharacteristic 4.39 ERA and 5.30 FIP he posted across his first 11 starts of the season prior to hitting the injured list. Urias figures to be among the top free agents available this offseason behind Shohei Ohtani, even after his struggles to start the season, given his pedigree as a hurler with a career ERA of 2.95 who won’t turn 27 until August.

Hoornstra adds that, according to Roberts, young right-handers Emmet Sheehan and Bobby Miller both figure to remain in the rotation even after Urias is activated. Roberts heaped praise on the pair of youngsters, describing their performance at the big league level so far as “100th percentile” when it comes to handling the opportunity to pitch in the majors. Entering play today, Sheehan has posted a 1.50 ERA across two starts with the club while Miller has impressed to the tune of a 2.83 ERA in five starts.

That figures to leave right-hander Noah Syndergaard without a job in the rotation going forward. As noted by Hoornstra, the right-hander threw three simulated innings prior to today’s game against the Astros, without being hindered by the blister that sent him to the 15-day IL earlier this month. That being said, Roberts described Syndergaard’s session today as simply “checking a box” for the right-hander, adding that “we’re still a ways away” from Syndergaard returning to the active roster. After signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers this past winter, Syndergaard has struggled badly with a 7.16 ERA in 55 1/3 innings of work.

NL West Notes: Suter, Wacha, Sheehan

By Mark Polishuk | June 24, 2023 at 9:03am CDT

The Rockies placed left-hander Brent Suter on the 15-day injured list yesterday due to a left oblique strain, and recalled righty Noah Davis from Triple-A in the corresponding move. Suter has posted his typically low strikeout rate and his 8.1% walk rate is barely above league average, but the 33-year-old has nonetheless worked to a 2.81 ERA over 41 2/3 innings out of Colorado’s bullpen. Suter has allowed only two home runs over those 41 2/3 frames, and he has some of the best soft-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball, sitting in the 99th percentile of hard-hit ball rate and in the 97th percentile of barrel rate.

Losing Suter to the IL is another blow to the injury-riddled Rockies, but the particular timing of the oblique problem adds some doubt to the southpaw’s value as a trade chip. Suter is a free agent after the season, and thus a logical player for the Rockies to shop in what looks like another non-contending season for the club. While oblique injuries can vary greatly in severity, it appears that Suter’s issue is relatively minor, as he told MLB.com that he was still feeling good and was planning to continue playing catch.

Dodgers Place Max Muncy On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | June 16, 2023 at 6:55pm CDT

The Dodgers announced a handful of moves before tonight’s series opener with the Giants. Right-hander Emmet Sheehan was selected to start tonight, as previously reported. Los Angles also recalled infield prospect Michael Busch from Triple-A Oklahoma City. They put Max Muncy on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 13, with a left hamstring strain while optioning right-hander Michael Grove to Triple-A.

Muncy has been hobbled by the hamstring for the past few days. He’d hoped to avoid the IL but still isn’t at full strength. Skipper Dave Roberts downplayed real concern, saying the club was confident the power-hitting infielder would be back once first eligible a week from now (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).

Chris Taylor is getting the start at third base tonight. Busch could also factor into that mix as part of his second MLB stint. The former first-round pick got into seven games earlier in the year, hitting .211/.348/.211 over 23 trips to the dish.

Sheehan, on the other hand, is making his big league debut. It’s more than just a spot start for the Boston College product. Roberts said they’re likely to give Sheehan a couple turns through the rotation with Grove heading to the minors (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). Grove has had a tough go this season, allowing an 8.10 ERA over 30 innings across seven appearances.

Dodgers To Select Emmet Sheehan

By Darragh McDonald | June 16, 2023 at 9:15am CDT

The Dodgers are going to select right-hander Emmet Sheehan to their roster, reports Juan Toribio of MLB.com. He will start tonight’s game, making his major league debut. The club has an opening on their 40-man roster from designating Adam Kolarek for assignment earlier this week but will need a corresponding move to get Sheehan onto the active roster.

Sheehan, 23, was selected by the Dodgers in the sixth round of the 2021 draft and made a brief professional debut at the lower levels of their farm system in the subsequent months. Last year, he spent most of it at High-A and was able to reach Double-A by the end of the year. He tossed 68 innings on the year with a 2.91 ERA, striking out an excellent 38% of opponents though with an 11.1% walk rate that was on the high side. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and added another 20 1/3 frames with a 3.54 ERA in six starts.

Coming into this season, he was generally considered to be just outside the club’s top tier of prospects. Many outlets had roughly five to eight Dodgers on their top 100 lists, with Sheehan just a bit behind that group. Baseball America ranked him #13 in the system, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs at #17 and Keith Law of The Athletic at #14.

Here in 2023, Sheehan has returned to Double-A and has been getting great results. He has an ERA of 1.86 in 53 1/3 innings so far, with a massive strikeout rate of 41.7%. His 10.9% walk rate is still a bit on the high side and he won’t be able to maintain a .211 batting average on balls in play or 91.1% strand rate, but his numbers would surely be impressive even with a bit of regression.

The Dodgers are now going to have Sheehan leapfrog over Triple-A and into the majors. That’s partially a testament to his impressive work but it’s also related to some challenges they have faced with the big league staff. Walker Buehler had Tommy John surgery last year and won’t be an option until late in the season, even in a best-case scenario. Dustin May was able to make nine starts this year but departed the last of those and was diagnosed with a flexor pronator strain. He’s on the 60-day injured list and ineligible to return until mid-July. Julio Urías has been on the IL since mid-May due to a hamstring strain and was supposed to come back this week but suffered a setback and will likely require a rehab assignment now. Noah Syndergaard went on the shelf just over a week ago due to a blister.

Amid all of those injuries to their established starters, the club has been forced to turn to their prospect depth. Ryan Pepiot was going to open the season in the rotation but he himself got injured at the end of Spring Training as he strained his oblique and isn’t expected back until the All-Star break. Michael Grove and Bobby Miller have been pushed into the rotation next to incumbents Clayton Kershaw and Tony Gonsolin. Miller’s ERA is a miniscule 0.78 but Grove’s is way up at 8.10.

Despite all those challenges, the Dodgers are managing to stay afloat. Their 39-30 record places them second in the National League West and they are currently holding the top Wild Card spot in the league. Whether this is just a spot start for Sheehan or he sticks around for longer will likely be determined by a few different factors. His own performance will surely be one of them, as will the continued results of Grove and Miller, along with the health situations of the guys on the injured list.

Big Hype Prospects: Abbott, Brown, Encarnacion-Strand, Povich, Sheehan

By Brad Johnson | May 30, 2023 at 9:33am CDT

With so many clubs needing to plunge into the minors for pitching reinforcements, let’s put more attention on this next wave of arms.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Andrew Abbott, 24, SP, CIN (AAA)
31.1 IP, 13.21 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 3.16 ERA

Abbott walked all over the Southern League earlier this season, posting a 1.15 ERA with 20.68 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9 in three starts. The Reds got him out of there in a hurry – possibly because the pre-tacked ball used in that league was obscuring aspects of his development. Since arriving in Triple-A, Abbott has reverted to a good-not-great trajectory and there’s still risk he’ll eventually land in the bullpen. From a stuff perspective, he has a starter’s repertoire. Like most young pitchers, Abbott’s command can be inconsistent and mostly draws negative comments. There’s reason for concern about home run prevention, especially at Great American Ball Park.

Ben Brown, 23, SP, CHC (AAA)
24 IP, 13.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.75 ERA

Brown was acquired from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. Like Abbott, Brown dominated the Southen League (20 IP, 0.45 ERA) en route to a quick promotion. He’s continued to miss bats, albeit with a couple red flags. Per a statistical source, hitters have averaged a 91.3-mph exit velocity against Brown in Triple-A. It’s a small sample concern for now. Inconsistencies with his command remain on display, and the relief risk is palpable. While his fastball, slider, and curve are all viewed as above-average offerings, the lack of command and changeup are traits of pitchers who eventually land in the bullpen. We’ve seen plenty of guys succeed with non-traditional repertoires lately, but they usually rely on some sort of unicorn trait. I’m unaware of Brown fitting this mold.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
146 PA, 13 HR, .346/.384/.721

Prospects like CES tend to create a lot of arguments among the general public. He was one of the top minor league performers in 2022, and he’s repeating the effort this season. However, poor plate discipline and a hefty swinging-strike rate introduce considerable risk. There’s also doubt about his ability to stick at third base. Cincinnati has already conceded this by using him 17 games at first, seven at DH, and seven at third. Few first basemen are this ill-disciplined. Of qualified first basemen, only Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Ryan Mountcastle have walk rates below 6.0 percent. Drury and Urshela aren’t really first basemen. On the other hand, CES punishes baseballs when he connects, averaging 92.2-mph on contact. If he can mount any sort of resistance to the inevitable bevy of breaking balls out of the zone, he could develop into a legitimate 40-homer threat.

Cade Povich, 23, SP, BAL (AA)
40 IP, 13.73 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 4.50 ERA

Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, Povich probably deserves inclusion in the latter portion of Top 100 lists. The southpaw doesn’t have any overwhelming traits, but the total package resembles many adequate left-handers around the league. Povich’s basic stats suggest cause for both optimism and skepticism. His 2.20 FIP and 2.47 xFIP are a sight better than his 4.50 ERA – largely due to a .356 BABIP and 62.2 percent strand rate. In the minors, such stats can be more than the “luck” we generally attribute them to in the Majors, and Povich also had a poor strand rate in 2022. It could indicate issues pitching out of the stretch. I’ve reached out to a couple contacts for their thoughts.

Worth mentioning, the Eastern League is not using the pretacked ball.

Emmet Sheehan, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
44 IP, 15.55 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.64 ERA

The Texas League also isn’t using the pretacked ball. Sheehan started to generate hype late last season, culminating in a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Sheehan is overwhelming the Double-A competition as evidenced by a 20.1 percent swinging strike rate, .176 BABIP, and 97% strand rate. Such figures indicate luck, but they also speak of an ability to miss bats with impunity. The star of the show is a double-plus changeup. A prospect watcher tipped me off last season about changeup artists – they tend to overperform in the minors. At the time, we were discussing Grayson Rodriguez. Like the other pitchers we’ve covered today, Sheehan’s command sparks comments about a future in the bullpen. Scouts also seem to dislike his mechanics – he tends to fall off hard to the first base line. I tend to ignore such comments. Goofy mechanics may (or may not) increase injury risk, but they also lead to unusual looks for hitters.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain, who we discussed in this section last week, has rushed out to a heady .380/.456/.600 performance in 57 Major League plate appearances. Red flags include a .531 BABIP, modest exit velocities, and 28.1 percent strikeout rate. However, McLain is showing power, advanced plate discipline, and a high rate of swinging contact (7.3 percent SwStr%).

Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23): Although not yet on the radar for top prospect status, Dezenzo is quickly accelerating through the Astros system as a third baseman. A scout brought him to my attention a month ago. He’s a low-angle, line-drive machine, leading to high BABIPs. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his game, introducing risk of stalling in the upper minors. Dezenzo was recently promoted to Double-A.

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): For fans of Esteury Ruiz, Rojas basically has a better version of a similar profile. He doesn’t visually look like Alfonso Soriano the way Ruiz does, but you can easily discern the athletic ability. Unlike Ruiz, he’s already regarded as a plus center fielder. Already on the 40-man roster, Rojas seems likely to ascend to Triple-A in the coming weeks.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Sheehan, Perez Jr., Kjerstad, Walker, Mervis

By Brad Johnson | November 11, 2022 at 5:02pm CDT

Our Arizona Fall League prospect coverage is coming to a close. The league wraps up its postseason this weekend. We’ll use this opportunity for one last peek at game action before affiliated baseball closes down for the year.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 20.1 IP, 8 BB, 24 K, 3.54 ERA

Arguably the top pitching prospect in the AFL, Sheehan had a shaky start to his fall season. He ended with a masterpiece: a five-inning, 10-strikeout gem. He allowed one hit and one walk in the outing. A right-handed changeup specialist, command is the main bugaboo when it comes to Sheehan’s development. His repertoire plays together in a way that should flummox hitters at all levels. As a Dodger, there is increased pressure to refine his command if he wants to stick in the rotation. Most clubs would comfortably view him as a future starter – one who might fumble a few games in the early innings but make up for it by dominating in others. The Dodgers could yet opt to turn him into a swing-man or reliever as they have with several able pitching prospects in recent years.

Robert Perez Jr., 22, 1B, SEA (A+)
AFL: 77 PA, 3 HR, .231/.338/.415

A slow-burn prospect whose calling card is power, Perez neither seized nor fumbled his opportunity in the AFL. The Rule 5-eligible first baseman has impressive power which he put on display by winning the first Fall Stars Home Run Derby. He performed well during the regular season – mostly at Low-A where he was a tad old for the level. His potent regular season and passable AFL campaign should lead to a promotion to Double-A early in the season. Whether or not the Mariners opt to add him to their 40-man, the right-handed slugger probably isn’t ready for a straight jump to the Majors via the Rule 5 Draft. Even in the AFL, he struck out 22 times in 77 plate appearances (28 percent).

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 104 PA, 5 HR, .357/.385/.622

Few players had more to prove this fall than Kjerstad. Now that the smoke has cleared, he answered some questions and raised others. The left-handed hitting outfielder led the league in plate appearances and at bats. He recorded five walks and 31 strikeouts. Given the modest quality of pitching in the AFL, it’s fair to wonder about his combination of aggression and swing-and-miss tendencies. This is a long-standing issue dating back to pre-draft reports. He worked on it during the regular season – possibly to the detriment of his power. On-site observers raved about the quality of Kjerstad’s contact… whenever he connected. Between premium exit velocities, plenty of fly balls, and all those at bats, it’s no surprise he led the league in extra-base hits.
Such prospects succeed when they’re adept at making adjustments. Kjerstad should get his first taste of the upper minors at some point next season.

Jordan Walker, 20, OF/3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 90 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, .286/.367/.558

While others had flashier showings, Walker was the talk of the AFL. He handled himself with poise while flashing a superstar ceiling – both by the traditional eye-test and via Statcast measurables. He likely could hold his own in the Majors as soon as next season. The Cardinals have been working on shifting him to the outfield in deference to Nolan Arenado. The main element lacking in Walker’s development is the easiest to supply – experience. He needs more opportunities to face and adjust to star-caliber pitching. Along the way, he’ll likely develop into a regular All-Star candidate.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 68 PA, 6 HR, 2 SB, .262/.324/.590

Of AFL participants (excluding Joey Wentz), Mervis probably has the best chance to open 2023 in the Majors. Including the regular season, he hit 42 home runs in 646 plate appearances this year. Remarkably, especially for the AFL home run leader, he fanned just eight times (11.8% K%) this fall. He also improved his strikeout rate continuously throughout the regular season. He began in High-A, where he recorded a 24.1 percent strikeout rate. That dropped to just 20.0 percent in Double-A and 14.6 percent in Triple-A. The low rate at his final stop coincided with an 8.7 percent swinging strike rate – far better than the league average. If Mervis can continue to avoid strikeouts while tapping into his power, he’ll have a bright future as a mid-lineup left-handed slugger.

Five More

Edouard Julien (23): Julien has been covered ad nauseum in this column. No prospect did more to further their claim to a future Major League role this fall. He’ll almost certainly be protected from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Julien’s combination of discipline, contact, sneaky pop, and sneakier baserunning are the traits of a regular. He still needs to settle into a position defensively – an issue that has arisen a few times in the Twins recent past (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda, Nick Gordon).

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert allowed a hit in his final inning of work, closing out the season with 11.2 innings, 40 batters faced, one hit allowed, four walks, and 25 strikeouts. Despite a relatively low inning total, he had the second-most strikeouts. The showing will help put him in consideration for a Major League role next season. The Rays have a crammed 40-man roster, and Reifert isn’t Rule 5-eligible until next offseason.

Tyler Hardman, NYY (23): A developing slugger with potent pop, Hardman is coming off Player of the Week honors. Overall, he posted a .325/.373/.662 line in 83 plate appearances. Of qualified hitters, he had the fourth-best OPS. Contact and inconsistent defense at the hot corner hold him back from appearing on prospect lists.

Nick Gonzales, PIT (23): Gonzales dropped from the spotlight due to injury and flawed performance. His AFL stint allowed him to build on a solid first showing in Double-A. In both settings, he succeeded without truly impressing. Whiffs remain an issue for a second baseman who is heavily dependent on his offensive output.

Francisco Morales, PHI (23): Morales is an interesting AFL participant because the Phillies have already burned two of his option years. They’re likely assessing if he should remain on the roster at all. He was one of four pitchers to throw 10 or more AFL innings without allowing an earned run. He recorded 17 strikeouts with only four hits allowed in 10.2 innings. He also issued seven free passes. Those walk issues have haunted him on a regular basis.

Load More Posts

Show all

Headlines

Emmet Sheehan

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect