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Twins Tender Contract To Emilio Pagán

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The Twins have tendered a contract to reliever Emilio Pagán, per Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

The news comes as at least a mild surprise, given Pagán’s struggles in recent years. The righty had a strong season with Tampa in 2019, posting a 2.31 ERA in 70 innings with a 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate. Unfortunately, the three subsequent seasons have been much less impressive for him. He went to the Padres prior to 2020 as part of the Manuel Margot trade but posted a 4.50 ERA that year while his strikeout rate dropped to 26.4% and his walk rate jumped to 10.3%. That might have been written off as an aberration from the bizarre circumstances of the pandemic year, but he posted a 4.83 ERA in 2021 despite dropping his walk rate to 6.8%.

He came to the Twins prior to 2022 in the Chris Paddack and Taylor Rogers trade. However, the change of scenery didn’t do him much good. He put up a 4.43 ERA on the year with his walk rate jumping back up to 9.5%. If the Twins saw reasons to be encouraged, it might have been with his strikeout rate jumping to 30.7% and his ground ball rate getting to 40.4%, that latter number being a career high. He was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $3.7MM in his final year before reaching free agency. He and the club have until January 13 to exchange figures in advance of a hearing, though they could agree to terms prior to that date.

AL Notes: Nevin, Angels, Strahm, Red Sox, Twins

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Angels interim manager Phil Nevin told reporters (including The Athletic’s Sam Blum) that he hasn’t yet had any talks with the front office about remaining in the job for the 2023 season.  Nevin moved from third base coach to the interim skipper’s role after Joe Maddon was fired in June, and the Angels have a 44-57 record under Nevin’s stewardship, though between injuries and some imperfect roster construction, it can be argued that Nevin hasn’t had much to work with in trying to get the Halos on track.

The manager’s job is one of many questions facing the Angels this offseason, with the franchise’s possible sale acting as the overhanging influence on every decision.  There has been some speculation that this uncertainty could benefit Nevin’s chances, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has written that the Angels could prefer to just retain Nevin rather than sign another manager to a multi-year contract this winter (thus leaving a new owner with that deal on the books, when that owner might naturally prefer to make their own choice at skipper).  The front office’s lack of contact with Nevin might not necessarily be a sign that he isn’t a candidate, as GM Perry Minasian and owner Arte Moreno might just be waiting until the offseason to conduct a proper search.

More from around the American League…

  • Amidst a difficult Red Sox season, Matt Strahm has been a bright spot, posting a 3.92 ERA over 43 2/3 innings and filling a number of different roles in Boston’s bullpen.  After being non-tendered by the Padres last winter, Strahm signed a one-year, $3MM free agent deal with the Sox in March and he told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo that he “would love” a return to Boston in 2023.  Strahm also said he is open to returning to a relief role, but also wants to market himself as a starting pitcher.  Strahm made 16 starts for the Padres in 2019 but none since, as knee injuries limited the southpaw in any role in 2020-21.  However, Strahm said he is ready to resume a starter’s workload, as a consistent running program has made his knees “feel better than when I was drafted.”  Since the Red Sox have multiple starters slated for free agency this winter, re-signing Strahm and at least giving him a trial run as a starter would make some sense, as the Sox would then have the fallback of moving the left-hander back into the bullpen.  Cotillo reported that the Brewers, Royals, and Tigers were among the teams vying for Strahm last offseason, so any of that trio could conceivably still have interest in his next trip to the open market.
  • Max Kepler, Gio Urshela, and Emilio Pagan could all be trade candidates for the Twins this offseason, as The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman breaks down why Minnesota may be open to swapping any of these veterans.  Naturally, money is one factor — Kepler is guaranteed at least $9.5MM in 2023, while Urshela (paid $6.55MM in 2022) and Pagan ($2.3MM) are due raises in their final year of salary arbitration before free agency.  Kepler and Pagan are also coming off underwhelming seasons, while Gleeman figures the solid Urshela likely has the most trade value of the trio, should the Twins want to open third base for Jose Miranda.

AL Notes: Rizzo, Aguilar, Guardians, Pagan, Rangers, Heim, Huff

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Anthony Rizzo has been dealing with back problems for much of the season, and the Yankees first baseman received an epidural on Thursday that will sideline him for the next few games.  The plan is to have Rizzo in the lineup on Monday when the Yankees open a homestand against the Twins, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News).  “This is something that should give him a lot of relief the rest of the way this season,” Boone said, also noting that Rizzo received a clean MRI on his back earlier in August.

The lingering back problems are a likely cause of Rizzo’s slump in August, as the first baseman has hit only .200/.282/.371 in his last 78 plate appearances.  Rizzo still has a healthy 136 wRC+ for the season even despite these recent struggles, but the Yankees surely need him back at full production for both the playoffs and what has become a surprisingly competitive AL East race with the surging Rays.

More from around the American League…

  • The Guardians didn’t have interest in Jesus Aguilar before the first baseman signed with the Orioles, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  Aguilar spent his first three MLB seasons with Cleveland in 2014-16, playing in only 35 big league games before being claimed by the Brewers in February 2017.  While he has enjoyed some success in his career, Aguilar has struggled in 2022, with only a .232/.282/.382 slash line over 463 plate appearances.  While the Guards are lacking in offense and Aguilar makes some sense as a first base/DH platoon partner with Josh Naylor, there’s no guarantee that Aguilar would’ve suddenly turned things around in Cleveland.
  • Emilio Pagan drew some “mild interest” in trade talks before the deadline, The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman reports.  Acquired as part of a notable four-player swap with the Padres before the season, Pagan’s first Twins season has difficult, with the reliever posting a 4.94 ERA over 51 innings.  Though Pagan has a very good 29.8% strikeout rate, he has been homer-prone, his 9.3% walk rate is well below average, and opposing batters are making tons of hard contact.  Pagan is arbitration-eligible this winter and might be a non-tender candidate, except the Twins feel they might still be able to deal the right-hander rather than let him go for nothing in a non-tender.
  • Rangers prospect Sam Huff has yet to receive a true extended look in the majors, with 10 games in 2020 and 30 games this season.  While Texas might call Huff up at some point before 2022 is over, the team will continue giving Huff regular work behind the plate at Triple-A while Jonah Heim continues as the regular catcher for the big league team, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes.  Heim still needs some seasoning in his own right, with interim manager Tony Beasley noting that Heim “needs to feel [an incresed workload] a little bit. That’s part of getting through the season, something that all everyday catchers have to feel.”  Heim has enjoyed a quality season on the whole, but his production has dropped off since the All-Star break, quite possibly because of his career-high number of MLB plate appearances and games played.

Twins Select Jharel Cotton, Ian Hamilton

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The Twins announced a series of roster moves ahead of this weekend’s series in Toronto. Minnesota selected the contracts of right-handers Chi Chi González, Jharel Cotton and Ian Hamilton while recalling outfielder Mark Contreras from Triple-A St. Paul. González will start this evening’s game, as had been reported yesterday.

In corresponding moves, four players — Max Kepler, Emilio Pagán, Trevor Megill and Caleb Thielbar — have been placed on the restricted list. That’s typical procedure for players who haven’t been vaccinated against COVID-19 on teams heading to Toronto. The Canadian government prohibits unvaccinated athletes from crossing the border, so that quartet will be out of action until next week.

Cotton has bounced on and off the roster a couple times this season. Claimed off waivers from the Rangers last winter, he’s made four appearances in relief for the Twins. Over 6 2/3 innings, Cotton has allowed just two runs but issued six walks. He’s impressed in St. Paul, allowing four runs in 11 2/3 frames while striking out 18 batters against three walks.

Hamilton is in line for his team debut, nearly a year and a half after Minnesota claimed him off waivers from the Phillies. The Twins outrighted the Washington State product off their 40-man roster a few weeks later, and he spent the entire 2021 campaign in St. Paul. He posted a 4.12 ERA across 59 innings last year, striking out an excellent 33.5% of opponents but walking a sky-high 15.2% of batters faced. The 26-year-old maintained that strikeout prowess while getting his walk rate to a more manageable 9.6% this year, allowing only one run in 12 2/3 frames. Hamilton has 14 games of MLB experience under his belt, with the 2018-20 White Sox.

While the Twins didn’t specify that González, Cotton and Hamilton were coming up as designated COVID substitutes, that appears to be the case. Dan Hayes of the Athletic tweets the trio won’t have to pass through waivers when the others are able to return to the roster. That’s unique to COVID substitutes, who won’t occupy a permanent 40-man roster spot.

The commissioner’s office has the unilateral authority to grant teams permission to designate players as substitutes, which it does when it determines a club has been particularly affected by virus protocols. In all likelihood, each of González, Cotton and Hamilton will come off the 40-man roster on Monday.

Twins Acquire Brayan Medina To Complete Taylor Rogers Trade

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The Twins have acquired right-handed pitching prospect Brayan Medina from the Padres, per Minnesota’s director of communications and player relations Dustin Morse. Earlier this month, the Twins traded Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan and a player to be named later, which has now been revealed as Medina.

Born in Venezuela, Medina is just 19 years old. He made 12 starts and 2 relief appearances last year between the Arizona Complex League and the Dominican Summer League. In 33 2/3 innings pitched, he had a 5.88 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate and 14.9% walk rate. Last year, Baseball America ranked him the #26 prospect in the Padres’ system.

After going over the first luxury tax line last year, the Padres have seemed reluctant to do so again this year, as paying the tax in consecutive years comes with escalating penalties. Their current CBT number is just under $229MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That gives them only about $1MM of wiggle room before they are over the first CBT line, which is $230MM under the new CBA. As part of the trade with Minnesota, the Twins agreed to pay almost all of Rogers’ salary, helping the Padres limbo under that line. Medina seems to be their reward for doing so, adding an intriguing young arm to their system.

Twins Acquire Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan From Padres For Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker

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10:33am: The Padres are receiving $6.6MM from the Twins, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That effectively reduces Rogers’ $7.3MM salary to the new $700K league minimum.

10:00am: The Twins saved one more move in their whirlwind offseason for what was scheduled to be Opening Day (before said opener was pushed back to Friday due to weather). Minnesota announced Thursday the acquisition of right-handed starter Chris Paddack and righty reliever Emilio Pagan in exchange for closer Taylor Rogers and first baseman/outfielder Brent Rooker. The Twins will also receive a player to be named later and will send cash to San Diego in the deal. The Padres have also announced the trade.

Minnesota is  acquiring a pair of arms under club control for multiple seasons, as Paddack, who is earning $2.25MM in 2021 is only in his first season of arbitration eligibility. He’s controlled through the 2024 campaign. Pagan, meanwhile, is earning $2.3MM this season and is controlled through 2023 via arbitration. Rogers, 31, is set to earn $7.3MM this season in his final year of club control before reaching free agency. Rooker, 27, doesn’t yet have a full year of Major League service and is controllable through the 2027 season.

Chris Paddack | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The 26-year-old Paddack and his three remaining seasons of club control headline the trade for Minnesota. The 2015 eight-rounder broke out as one of the sport’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2019 season and delivered on that hype when he posted a 3.33 ERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate and just a 5.5% walk rate through 140 2/3 innings as a rookie. At that point, Paddack looked like a cornerstone piece for the Friars, and any near-term trade involving him would’ve seemed nearly impossible to fathom.

Paddack, however, has been unable to repeat that brilliant rookie performance. His 2020 campaign resulted in a 4.73 ERA in with a diminished 23.7% strikeout rate. He still worked a “full” slate of 12 starts and 59 innings during the shortened 2020 season, but the results and the underlying metrics weren’t nearly as strong as his 2019 debut. Paddack’s 2021 season represented an even further step back; in 108 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 5.07 ERA with a career-low 21.6% strikeout rate. More concerning, though, was the fact that he ended the season with a low-grade tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow.

The Twins are likely convinced that Paddack’s elbow is healthy enough to rely on him as a rotation piece not only in 2022 but for the next several seasons. If that’s the case, they’ll focus their work with Paddack on further developing a third pitch to help him recapture his 2019 form. Paddack averaged 94.9 mph on his fastball last season and has been lauded for his plus changeup since his prospect days, but his curveball has been a below-average pitch for him at the big league level. If the Twins are able to help Paddack establish that third pitch, it stands to reason that his heater and changeup can trend closer to their 2019 effectiveness. There’s potential for a (second) breakout with Paddack, particularly given that his command has remained elite even through his 2020-21 struggles. The extent to which Minnesota can refine that third pitch (or develop an entirely new one) will be telling.

Minnesota is also picking up two years of control over the 30-year-old Pagan — another 2019 standout (with the Rays) who has had harder luck in San Diego. Acquired by the Padres on the heels of a 2.31 ERA with a dominant 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate in 2019, Pagan hasn’t been nearly as effective since being shipped to southern California. In 85 1/3 innings with the Friars, he posted a 4.75 ERA with a 26.3% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. Pagan has always been homer-prone, but that flaw ratcheted up to new levels in 2021 when he yielded an average of 2.27 long balls per nine frames.

Despite his recent struggles, however, Pagan has above-average strikeout rates and velocity. And, like Paddack, his command has been nothing short of outstanding (with the exception of the shortened 2020 season). He’s walked just 6.2% of his opponents at the big league level and has yielded only a .210 batting average and .264 on-base percentage in his career. A penchant for serving up home runs has been Pagan’s only real blemish, but if the Twins can clean up that issue — as the Rays did in 2019 and the Mariners did in 2017 — they’ll have a closing-caliber reliever on their hands for the next two seasons.

Coaxing a high-level performance out of Pagan will be all the more crucial for the Twins, as this morning’s trade sends their closer and one of the best left-handed relievers in all of baseball to San Diego. The 31-year-old Rogers has been a triumph in terms of player development for Minnesota, blossoming from a fairly nondescript back-of-the-rotation prospect to a late-inning buzzsaw who has overpowered opponents dating back to the 2018 season.

Taylor Rogers | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Rogers, whose twin brother Tyler pitches for his new division rival in San Francisco, added a slider to his repertoire back in 2018 — first debuting the pitch on Memorial Day weekend that year. The change in his results was stunning. Carrying a 5.48 ERA at the time, Rogers pitched to a 1.34 ERA for the remainder of the season and whiffed 57 hitters in 47 innings. There’s been no looking back for him, either. Since debuting that devastating breaking ball on May 31, 2018, Rogers has posted a 2.58 ERA (2.54 SIERA) with a massive 32.5% strikeout rate, a tiny 4.6% walk rate and a hearty 48% grounder rate. He’s been one of the absolute best relievers in MLB during that span, racking up 50 saves and, in 2021, making his first All-Star team.

Dominant as Rogers has been, however, he isn’t without his own medical concerns. The lefty’s 2021 drew to an abrupt close when he exited his appearance on July 26 with discomfort in his left middle finger. It was eventually determined that Rogers had a damaged ligament in his pitching hand. As the Twins are with Paddack, San Diego is clearly banking on the belief that Rogers is healthy and able to bounce back to his typical form. If that’s indeed the case, they’ll be able to turn leads over to one of the game’s more effective relievers for the 2022 season before Rogers reaches free agency in the offseason.

Rooker is the fourth known piece of the deal at this time and gives the Padres a power-hitting corner outfield option who has yet to piece things together at the MLB level. Selected with the No. 35 overall pick back in 2017, the former Mississippi State star breezed through the minor leagues, hitting .263/.359/.516 while showing off his plus raw power. Rooker’s bat will need to carry him at the MLB level, however, as he’s a college first baseman who the Twins tried rather unsuccessfully as a left fielder (-6 Defensive Runs Saved, -4 Outs Above Average, -9.7 UZR/150 in 268 career innings).

Rooker has a pair of minor league options remaining and isn’t necessarily an immediate fix to the Padres’ corner outfield woes. He’ll give them an option there, at first base and at designated hitter — one who has light-tower power but also one who has punched out in 32.1% of his 234 big league plate appearances (against just a 6.4% walk rate). The 6’3″, 225-pound Rooker gives San Diego an intriguing power bat but also something of a project, as he’s already 27 years of age and hasn’t yet proven that he can handle big league pitching. Given his lack of defensive value, it’s paramount for the Padres that they put the finishing touches on the development of Rooker’s bat.

The Twins have been on the hunt for starting pitching all winter, and while they didn’t add the marquee name many fans hoped, they’ve now acquired both Paddack and Sonny Gray while also signing Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. That quartet will join rookie Opening Day starter Joe Ryan and under-the-radar sophomore Bailey Ober in comprising Minnesota’s main group of starters, but the Twins also have plenty of well-regarded prospects on the horizon. Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino and Cole Sands are all getting close to the big leagues and could debut at some point in 2022.

As for the Padres, they’ll deal from a position of depth in order to strengthen the back end of their bullpen. Paddack has been a regular in the San Diego rotation for the past three seasons but was largely nudged out of the frame by a series of high-profile trade acquisitions. The Friars have added Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Mike Clevinger and, most recently, Sean Manaea over the past year-plus, and they also signed righty Nick Martinez to a four-year deal this winter. Add in young arms like MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers and Adrian Morejon (who’ll return from Tommy John surgery later this season), and it’s easy to see why they felt comfortable moving Paddack. It’s certainly a risk to sell low on a starter with his upside, but the Friars are adding one of the game’s more successful relievers and clearly have sufficient rotation depth to make a move of this nature.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Kevin Acee and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported last night that the two teams were discussing trade scenarios involving Paddack and Rogers. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported this morning that a Paddack/Rogers trade was happening. Rosenthal reported that Pagan was in the deal, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin first reported Rooker’s inclusion. La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune added that the Twins will receive a PTBNL, and Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweeted that Minnesota was including some cash in the swap.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres, Mets Reportedly Stalled On Hosmer Trade Talks

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4:57PM: Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that talks may have stalled entirely after the two sides “hit a snag” in negotiations.  Sherman is even more blunt, saying the proposed trade “is not going to happen.”

8:50 AM: A potential deal between the two sides would be a little more complex than initially presumed. Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter), the Padres would unsurprisingly need to eat a fair amount of the money owed to Hosmer in order to make this deal work. Specifically, the Padres would cover roughly $30MM or more of Hosmer’s deal, bringing Hosmer’s per annum down to $6-7MM per year, per Sherman.

The Mets would also get reliever Emilio Pagan in the deal. Pagan has at times looked like a premier bullpen arm during his five seasons in the bigs with the Mariners, Rays, A’s, and Padres. The 30-year-old is an option to close games if he stays in San Diego, whereas in New York he would slot into a fairly deep collection of right-handed setup arms that includes Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, Miguel Castro, Trevor May, and Seth Lugo.

7:55 AM: The Mets have spent the offseason pushing full-bore towards fielding a competitive squad, but the fragility of an offseason win became clear yesterday with the news of ace Jacob deGrom being shut down for the next four weeks. The panic alarm has sounded, but the Mets are not without solutions.

In fact, they just so happen to have been in conversation with the Padres for the past couple of weeks about different trade scenarios, at least one of which could bring another arm to New York to help plug the leak. Per The Athletic’s Dennis Lin, Ken Rosenthal, and others, a potential deal could center around Eric Hosmer and Chris Paddack heading to the Mets, while Dominic Smith would go to San Diego.

The Padres have been trying to move off of Hosmer’s money for quite some time now, and the freewheeling Mets may now have a big enough need in the rotation to consider taking him back. There’s some urgency for the Padres here, as Hosmer’s partial no-trade clause turns into full 10-and-5 rights at the end of this season. Of course, if he is traded, Hosmer’s contract has a clause that says he cannot be traded twice without his consent, so he will essentially get his no-trade clause by the end of the 2022 campaign regardless for whom he plays.

With $59MM over four years left on his deal, Hosmer does not have positive trade value – not after fWAR totals of 0.0, 0.9, -0.3, and -0.1 over the past four seasons. Entering his age-32 season, one doesn’t expect Hosmer to flourish overnight. Furthermore, the Mets absolutely have no need for him, not with Pete Alonso on the roster.

Acquiring Hosmer would mean pushing the Mets deeper into luxury tax territory with a payroll nearing $300MM, notes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Mets might be willing to take him if they can reinforce their rotation at the same time, however.

Enter Paddack. The 26-year-old has three years of team control remaining and significant upside. He’s far from a sure thing, however. His numbers declined for the third consecutive season last year when he finished with a 5.07 ERA across 108 1/3 innings. A slightly torn UCL might be the cause of the decline, but that’s not necessarily a situation that has totally resolved itself. Paddack would, therefore, be an option to slide into deGrom’s rotation spot, but he’s far from a panacea for the Mets’ long-term concerns.

In the short term, he might not even be an upgrade over Tylor Megill, the presumptive fifth starter in deGrom’s absence. Megill posted a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP over 18 starts covering 89 2/3 innings in 2021 – his first taste of big league action. The Mets could certainly begin the season with Megill in the rotation and see how things go from there.

For the Padres part, their motivation would mostly be to shed Hosmer’s contract. They have enough rotation depth, theoretically, to weather the loss of Paddack, and in Smith, they’d be getting back a comparable bat that’s cheaper, more versatile, and with more theoretical upside than Hosmer. He’s also under team control for two more seasons beyond 2022, though those seasons aren’t guaranteed, should he continue to struggle at the dish.

For the first part of his career, the story on Smith was that he needed at-bats, but his natural position of first base was spoken for, so his ceiling was no more than that of a bit player. Then the designated hitter came to the NL in 2020, Smith starting taking flyballs in left field, and the offensive promise came to fruition with a .316/.377/.616 line over 199 plate appearances during the shortened campaign.

He again saw fairly stable playing time in 2021, but the numbers cratered to an 86 wRC+ by way of a  .244/.304/.363 line across  494 plate appearances , more than doubling his previous career-high in that regard. The Padres do need a left fielder, and Smith could step right in at first base were this deal to go down. Still, for San Diego, this deal is mostly about moving off of Hosmer. There are options out there for left field – including former Met Michael Conforto – but Smith would certainly be worth rostering if acquiring him meant removing Hosmer from the payroll.

Tender Deadline Signings: 11/30/21

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With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming tonight at 8pm ET — the MLBPA and MLB jointly agreed to move the deadline up a couple days due to the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement — we’ll likely see a slew of arbitration-eligible players signing one-year deals.

It’s commonplace for a large batch of players to sign deals in the hours leading up to the tender deadline. “Pre-tender” deals of this nature often fall shy of projections due to the fact that teams use the looming threat of a non-tender to enhance their leverage. Arbitration contracts at this juncture are often take-it-or-leave-it propositions, with the “leave it” end of that arrangement resulting in the player being cut loose. Given the widely expected lockout, there could be more incentive than usual for borderline non-tender candidates to take those offers rather than being cast out into free agency just hours before a transaction freeze is implemented.

As a reminder, arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed. In a typical year, a team can cut a player on an arb contract at any point before the halfway point in Spring Training and only be responsible for 30 days’ termination pay (about one-sixth of the contract). Releasing a player in the second half of Spring Training bumps the termination pay to 45 days of his prorated salary.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month, although for many of the players listed below, this isn’t so much avoiding arbitration as it is avoiding a non-tender. Here’s a look at today’s agreements…

  • The Yankees have agreed to deals with infielder Gio Urshela and right-hander Domingo German, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Urshela will make $6.55MM, while German has agreed to a $1.75MM deal. Urshela has two seasons of control remaining; German is controllable for three years. Urshela is coming off a .267/.301/.419 showing while playing third base and shortstop. German tossed 98 1/3 innings of 4.58 ERA ball.
  • The Twins have signed three arbitration-eligible pitchers, per reports from Feinsand and Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). Right-hander Jharel Cotton signed for $700K, reliever Caleb Thielbar lands $1.3MM and reliever Tyler Duffey signs for $3.8MM. Thielbar and Duffey were both productive members of the Minnesota relief corps in 2021. Cotton was recently claimed off waivers from the Rangers.
  • The Giants have agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Slater on a $1.85MM deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 28-year-old (29 next month) appeared at all three spots on the grass while hitting .241/.320/.423 over 306 plate appearances in 2021.
  • Reliever Emilio Pagan and the Padres have agreed on a $2.3MM deal, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). The 30-year-old worked 63 1/3 innings of 4.83 ERA/3.93 SIERA ball this past season.
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $2MM deal with left-hander Caleb Smith, reports Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old posted a 4.83 ERA/4.68 SIERA across 113 2/3 innings in a swing capacity in 2021.

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MLBTR Polls: Padres Versus Blue Jays Bullpen Showdown

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The Toronto Blue Jays uncharacteristically spent much of the offseason in the spotlight, exhausting their Rolodex to add talent in free agency. As a result, their lineup, to borrow a phrase, is in the best shape of its life. Yet, doubts about their status as contenders prevail, largely because of a perceived lack of high-end firepower in the rotation. They brought Robbie Ray back, but otherwise added only Steven Matz coming off a disastrous season in New York. Though Matz has impressed so far, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the rotation anxiety is warranted. Arguably, however, the bullpen poses a greater threat to the Jays as they attempt to unseat the Rays and Yankees atop the American League East.

GM Ross Atkins landed stud closer Kirby Yates in free agency, and despite just two appearances this spring, they’re ready to commit to the former Padre as their closer, writes Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. There was little doubt, though the 34-year-old is hardly unblemished. He made just six appearances last year before undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. Thus, he’s not likely to shoulder a workhorse burden as a 70-80 inning arm out of the pen. So while the glory and the title will belong to Yates, the responsibility of holding leads weighs just as heavily on arms like Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps.

Romano burst onto the scene as a legitimate weapon with a 1.23 ERA and 36.8 percent strikeout rate in 2020, while Rafael Dolis returned stateside for the first time since 2013 to post an equally impressive 1.50 ERA and 31.0 percent strikeout rate. Both had FIPs roughly a run and a half higher than their ERAs, however, and could be in line for at least a touch of regression in 2021. Newcomers Chatwood and Phelps are pro arms, but they lack the pedigree of high-leverage, first-division bullpen stalwarts.

Julian Merryweather has some potential to pop as a multi-inning option. The Blue Jays aim to get the 29-year-old right-hander around 100 total innings. He’s 29 years old with only 13 career innings in the Majors, but he’s long been an intriguing talent. Armed with a fastball that averages close to 97 mph, Merryweather is at least worth watching as a potential difference-maker. The Jays hoped Tom Hatch might be another sleeper, but they await a status update on elbow inflammation, per Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

From the left side, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Borucki, and Anthony Kay are the most likely to make the roster. The 37-year-old Liriano has been in the Majors since 2005, but the 3.47 ERA he posted last season in Pittsburgh was his best ERA or FIP since his first Pirates’ tenure in 2015. Kay has a higher ceiling, but he has yet to establish himself at the big-league level.

On the whole, the Blue Jays very much require Yates to actualize as the guy who locked down 53 saves with a 1.67 ERA/1.93 FIP for the Padres from 2018-19. If he doesn’t return to that form, the bottom could fall out for this group; a rudderless unit is prone to spiral.

Speaking of Yates’ former club, the Padres, too, are working to establish a new pecking order at the back end of the bullpen. Yates left town, but so did his replacement Trevor Rosenthal. The Padres exported another potential closer in Andres Munoz to the Mariners last August. Luis Patiño could have been used out of the bullpen as well, had he not been included in the Blake Snell deal.

Unlike the Blue Jays, however, the Padres have made repeated efforts to replenish their bullpen reserves with veteran, battle-tested arms. While keeping Craig Stammen in the fold, the Padres added Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson in free agency last winter. They supplemented that crew with free agent additions Mark Melancon and Keone Kela this year. President of Baseball Ops and GM A.J. Preller didn’t stop there, however. He exhausted the trade market as well, netting Tim Hill from the Royals and Emilio Pagan from the Rays prior to 2020. Then, in the deal that sent Munoz to the Mariners, Preller acquired Dan Altavilla and Austin Adams, the latter of whom continues to work his way back from injury. Even non-roster invitee Nabil Crismatt has impressed so far this spring.

Should that deep pool of arms prove insufficient, the Padres can fall back on their depth of prospect arms like MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, and others. For now, Morejon looks like he’ll start the year in the rotation, notes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but roles are certain to change throughout the season.

On a roster that includes 282 career saves, it’s Pagan who appears closest to nabbing the title of closer, writes Acee. Pagan had a difficult 2020, but the team believes right arm pain was a significant mitigating factor in his 4.50 ERA/4.69 FIP. He saved just two games last year, but he is only a year removed from locking down 20 saves for the Rays. He has averaged seven holds per season over the last four.

Granted, Pagan’s fastball velocity was down from 95.5 mph in 2019 to 94.5 mph in 2020. Even dropping velocity, his high-spin four-seamer showed elite vertical rise. He’ll weaponize it up in the zone, contrasting with his cutter, which zags where the fastball zigs.

Bottom line, the Blue Jays and Padres both field strong relief units – but both can reasonably chart a path to future adversity, though differently so. While Pagan isn’t the most experienced arm in the Padres’ pen – that would be Melancon with his 205 career saves – he’s certainly capable closing games. If not, the Padres have no shortage of alternatives, even with the threat of injury looming. The counterpoint: as they say in football, a team with three quarterbacks has none. For the Blue Jays, Yates won’t have nearly as much internal competition breathing down his neck, but that also means less of a safety net. The Jays don’t boast the diversity of options the Padres do –  what they have is three arms in Yates, Romano, and Dolis who posted sub-2.00 ERA’s in their last full season.

Different approaches, but the same goal: preserve leads and win enough ballgames to make the playoffs and contend for a title. Which bullpen do you trust more? What grade would you give each bullpen heading into 2021? Lastly, in a draft for 2021 comprised only of the veterans in the Padres ’and Blue Jays’ bullpens, I’m curious know what who MLBTR readers trust the most. Between both teams, who is the guy you’d want closing games on a contender?

(links for app users: poll 1, poll 2, poll 3, poll 4)

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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