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Emilio Pagan

Emilio Pagan Exercises Player Option With Reds

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The Reds announced that right-hander Emilio Pagan has exercised his $8MM player option for the 2025 season.  Pagan inked a two-year, $16MM contract with Cincinnati last winter that included an opt-out clause after the first season, and the reliever has chosen to forego a $250K buyout and a return trip to free agency.

There wasn’t much suspense in Pagan’s decision, as he missed just short of three months of the 2024 season due to a lat strain.  The injury limited to Pagan to 38 innings in as many appearances, marking the lowest career total in either category for Pagan during any of his seven regulation-length MLB seasons (Pagan tossed 22 innings in 22 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign).

Pagan’s first season in Cincinnati saw him post a 4.50 ERA, but a much more impressive 3.19 SIERA.  An inflated .351 BABIP undermined some solidly above-average strikeout (28.1%) and walk (7%) rates, though Pagan did allow a lot of hard contact.  Even with this favorable set of advanced metrics, it makes a lot of sense that the 33-year-old Pagan would prefer to lock in $7.75MM of extra guaranteed salary rather than test the market on the heels of what he surely views as a middling platform year.

Pagan’s bottom-line results haven’t always been consistent, though he isn’t far removed from a strong 2023 campaign (with the Twins) that helped him land that $16MM deal in the first place.  It isn’t a coincidence that Pagan’s 2023 season included by far the lowest home run rate (5.3%) of his career, as the righty has long had difficulty in keeping the ball in the park.  Those issues returned with a 12.5% homer rate in 2024, just slightly bettering his 12.8% career mark.

With Pagan returning and Brent Suter signed to a new contract, the Reds’ bullpen will have some familiar faces back, even if Buck Farmer and swingmen Nick Martinez and Jakob Junis are now all heading for free agency.  Getting Alexis Diaz back on track is surely the Reds’ top bullpen concern heading into 2025, though having Pagan stay healthy and deliver his usual type of innings-eating season will surely also help.

Reds Activate Emilio Pagán From 60-Day IL

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The Reds have activated Emilio Pagán from the 60-day injured list, the team announced today. To free up a spot on the active roster, Yosver Zulueta was optioned to Triple-A Louisville. The team had two open spaces on the 40-man roster, so no additional corresponding move was necessary.

Pagán, 33, signed a two-year, $16MM contract with the Reds this past offseason. Before reaching free agency, he spent the first seven seasons of his career pitching for the Mariners, Athletics, Rays, Padres, and Twins. Despite being traded four times in less than five years, Pagán put up solid numbers, pitching to a 3.71 ERA and 3.39 SIERA across 369 appearances. What’s more, although he compiled 22 wins, 32 saves, and 60 holds – and a 1.80 ERA in 11 postseason appearances – his most impressive accomplishment in that time was, perhaps, his durability. From 2017-23, he only took one trip to the injured list: a brief stint on the 10-day IL with right biceps inflammation in 2020. He pitched at least 50 innings in every full season. Only five players threw more innings in relief over those seven years: Raisel Iglesias, Héctor Neris, Miguel Castro, Adam Ottavino, and Kenley Jansen.

Unfortunately, the injury bug finally caught up to Pagán in his first season with Cincinnati. The veteran righty landed on the IL with a right lat strain in mid-June, and he was transferred to the 60-day IL later that month.

Results-wise, Pagán has had his ups and downs throughout his career. He put up a strong performance in his walk year last season, tossing 69 1/3 innings for Minnesota with a 2.99 ERA. Yet, there were warning signs that his success wasn’t entirely sustainable. His 23.8% strikeout rate was a career-low, his 5.3% HR/FB was well below his career average, and his 4.01 SIERA was more than a full run higher than his ERA. Nonetheless, he managed to secure a $16MM guarantee from the Reds. He is making an $8MM salary this season, and he has an $8MM player option for 2025.

Pagán looked solid but unspectacular over his first 22 appearances with Cincinnati. His strikeout rate climbed back up to 29.9%, but his home run rate jumped up too; he gave up four long balls in just 22 games. His 3.06 SIERA is a marked improvement from last season, but his 4.43 ERA is not. Most concerningly, his velocity is down by at least one and a half miles per hour on all three of his pitches (a four-seam fastball, a cutter, and a splitter). He has also allowed hard-hit balls (95+ mph EV) at the highest rate of his career. Then again, his SIERA, xERA, and xFIP are all significantly better than the league average, and pitch modeling systems like Stuff+ and PitchingBot agree that Pagán remains an above-average arm. Ultimately, what this tells us is that 20 1/3 innings is a pretty small sample size with which to evaluate a pitcher. With seven weeks remaining in the season, it will be interesting to see if Pagán performs well enough that he might choose to reject his player option this offseason and return to free agency.

Cincinnati has had one of the better bullpens in baseball all season, and Nick Krall bolstered that group with Jakob Junis at the trade deadline. Even so, the Reds will need all the help they can get if they want to stay alive in the NL Wild Card race; they’re currently five games back of the third Wild Card spot, with six teams standing in their way.

The Reds claimed Zulueta off of waivers from the Blue Jays on Opening Day, and he made his MLB debut with Cincinnati in late June. The 26-year-old has already been recalled and optioned several times this season, pitching to a 3.09 ERA and 3.63 SIERA over eight low-leverage appearances. He will return to the Louisville Bats, with whom he has pitched 40 1/3 innings this year with a 2.23 ERA and 3.24 FIP.

Reds Activate Noelvi Marté

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The Reds announced today that infielder Noelvi Marté has been activated from the suspended list, having now served his 80-game PED suspension. In corresponding moves, they optioned infielder Liván Soto and transferred right-hander Emilio Pagán to the 60-day injured list.

Marté, 22, had an excellent debut for the Reds last year. Long considered one of the top prospects in the league, he was called up in August of last year and hit .316/.366/.456 in his first 35 games at the major league level. That set him up to be a key part of the 2024 club but he was hit with an 80-game suspension in early March after testing positive for Boldenone.

That has been just one of several notable absences for the Reds this year. Matt McLain, TJ Friedl and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have all missed significant time due to injury, with several pitchers having spent time on the IL as well. Those health problems and Marté’s suspension have left the club fairly hamstrung so far on the season.

Those issues have contributed to a fairly lackluster performance from the club, as the Reds are currently 37-43. That leaves them only 4.5 games out of a playoff spot in the fairly weak National League Wild Card race, but many expected better results this year after the club seemed to be overflowing with young talent towards the end of last year.

The return of Marté could perhaps give them a boost, though for what it’s worth, he hasn’t been in good form after his layoff. He began a rehab assignment a couple of weeks ago and hit .151/.151/.170 in 15 Triple-A games. That’s a small sample size and perhaps some rust is expected after missing time, but the Reds will obviously hope for better than that going forward.

The Reds still have McLain, Friedl and Encarnacion-Strand on the injured list while Jake Fraley and Jeimer Candelario are each dealing with minor ailments. Despite Marté’s poor form during his rehab, he might get some runway to get in a good place with so many other players ailing. He was primarily playing third base during his rehab, which has been Candelario’s home for much of this season. Santiago Espinal has been covering that spot lately but is hitting just .203/.253/.297 on the year. Even when Candelario is healthy again, he is capable of moving over to first base, while regular first baseman Spencer Steer could perhaps move into the corner outfield mix.

As for Pagán, he landed on the 15-day injured list June 9 due to a right lat strain. This transfer suggests the Reds don’t expect him back until early August in a best-case scenario. He signed a two-year, $16MM deal in the offseason, with the chance to opt out after one year. He has a mediocre 4.43 earned run average on the year and seemingly won’t have a ton of time to improve that number after this IL stint. The Reds could look to improve their bullpen prior to the trade deadline, but their aggressiveness in that department will depend on how the club plays over the next month.

2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

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We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

Reds Outright Bubba Thompson

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TODAY: Thompson has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Double-A Chattanooga, the Reds announced.

MAY 23: The Reds announced Thursday that they’ve designated outfielder Bubba Thompson for assignment in order to create 40-man roster space for righty Brett Kennedy, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Louisville. Kennedy will take the 26-man roster spot of reliever Emilio Pagan, who’s being placed on the 15-day injured list due to tightness in his right triceps.

Thompson appeared in 17 games for the Reds but received only 18 plate appearances. He’s among the fastest players in MLB — if not the fastest — but has long had struggles at the plate, thus relegating him to a defensive replacement and pinch-running role. He went 2-for-18 with a double and five steals in his small handful of plate appearances but also punched out a glaring 11 times (61.1%).

A first-round pick by the Rangers in 2017, Thompson was a multi-sport star and legitimate football prospect as well prior to his selection and the signing of a $2.1MM bonus out of the draft. He’s now seen time in parts of three MLB seasons but is just a .232/.273/.295 hitter (58 wRC+) with a huge 32% strikeout rate and just a 4.2% walk rate. Thompson’s speed is off the charts, and he showed a bit of pop with 16 minor league big flies in 2021 and another 14 homers in 2022.

However, Thompson has still struggled to refine his approach at the plate even in the upper minors. He’d been playing with Cincinnati’s Double-A affiliate at the time of his DFA and, in 37 trips to the plate, carried a .200/.243/.314 slash. Thompson does have a .284/.347/.440 output in 145 Triple-A games, but that comes out to around league-average when adjusting for the electric run-scoring environment in the Pacific Coast League.

This is Thompson’s fifth DFA since last August. He’s yet to make it through waivers. The Royals claimed him off waivers from Texas but subsequently lost him to the Reds in October. When Cincinnati designated Thompson for assignment in late December, the Yankees put in a claim — only to DFA him again just weeks later. The Twins claimed Thompson but, like the Yankees, designated him for assignment after only a couple weeks, at which point the Reds claimed him a second time. He’s been with Cincinnati since that point but will now be traded or placed on waivers yet again within the next five days.

Kennedy, 29, has pitched in parts of two big league seasons: 2018 with the Padres and 2023 with the Reds. He’ll now get a second stint in Cincinnati and hope for better results than he turned in last year, when he was tagged for 13 runs in 18 innings. Kennedy has spent the 2024 season in the Louisville rotation but been roughed up for a 6.86 ERA in 40 2/3 frames (eight starts). His 18.9% strikeout is below-average by around five percentage points, but his excellent 4.7% walk rate is nearly half the league-average rate.

Kennedy will add some length to the bullpen in place of Pagan, who inked a surprising two-year, $16MM deal with the Reds this offseason — one that allows him the opportunity to opt out at season’s end. It was a surprise fit, given Cincinnati’s homer-happy stadium and Pagan’s longstanding penchant for big home run totals but also big strikeout rates. True to form, Pagan has already served up four taters in 19 1/3 innings of work (1.86 HR/9) but also punched out a substantial 30.5% of his opponents. He’s sitting on a 4.19 ERA to begin his Reds tenure, but his season will now be paused for at least the next couple weeks as he lets that ailing triceps mend.

Injury Notes: Garcia, Bradford, Pagan, Chandler

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Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien collided in pursuit of a fly ball in shallow right field in Saturday’s game, leaving Garcia with a sore forearm that kept him out of Sunday’s game.  The issue was serious enough that Garcia underwent an MRI, but manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry (X link) and other reporters that the outfielder received “pretty good” results from the tests.  Since the Rangers don’t play on Monday, the team is hopeful that another day of rest will have Garcia ready for the start of their series Tuesday against the Phillies.

Garcia has a solid 117 wRC+ over 192 plate appearances this season, though his .251/.297/.491 slash line is obviously power-heavy.  While Garcia has 11 homers and is making lots of hard contact, his strikeout and walk rates are both far below the league average, and his 5.7% walk rate is in particular a sharp drop from his 10.3% number in 2023.  Despite these concerns, Garcia has still been one of the better hitters in a Texas lineup that has struggled to follow up on its huge numbers from its championship season.

More injury updates from around baseball…

  • Sticking with the Rangers, Cody Bradford told Landry and other reporters that the stress fracture in his rib isn’t improving, even if the injury is no longer causing him pain.  Bradford has been shut down from throwing for the time being, and it isn’t yet known how long this shutdown might extend his recovery timeline.  Bradford hasn’t pitched since April 10 due to a lower back strain that led to his initial placement on the 10-day injured list, but the rib fracture was discovered near the end of April, and it was expected that Bradford would likely miss the rest of May.  The left-hander had a sterling 1.40 ERA in his first 19 1/3 innings of the season, but his injuries have made him one of an incredible six starting pitchers on the Rangers’ IL.
  • Emilio Pagan had to be removed from the Reds’ 3-2 loss to the Dodgers today after the reliever felt some pain in his triceps area.  “It felt like my triceps overstretched right in the middle,” Pagan said told MLB.com and other media, though “it wasn’t sharp pain. It wasn’t a grab.”  Pagan will be examined by team doctors during the Monday off-day, but an initial round of tests created some hope that the issue isn’t serious.  Pagan’s 54.2% hard-hit ball rate is among the highest in baseball and he is having his usual trouble keeping the ball in the park, but the right-hander has limited the damage to a 4.19 ERA over 19 1/3 innings thanks to an outstanding strikeout rate.
  • Pirates pitching prospect Bubba Chandler has been placed on the seven-day IL at Double-A due to forearm tightness, as assistant GM Steve Sanders relayed in an interview on 93.7 radio (hat tip to Justin Guerriero of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).  Chandler was a third-round pick for the Bucs in the 2021 draft, and he is ranked 57th by Baseball America and 66th by MLB Pipeline in their current lists of the sport’s top prospects.  The righty had 3.10 ERA over his first 20 1/3 innings of the Double-A season but was hit hard in his last two outings, perhaps in relation to the forearm issue.

Reds Sign Emilio Pagan

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Dec. 1: The Reds have now formally announced the signing of Pagan.

Nov. 29: The Reds are reportedly in agreement with free agent reliever Emilio Pagan on a two-year, $16MM guarantee. The deal consists of matching $8MM salaries and allows Pagan, a client of the Ballengee Group, to opt out after next season. It’s a strong deal for the righty, as the contract contains incentives to boost the total further and could allow him to seek a larger contract next winter if he enjoys a good first year in Cincinnati. The agreement is still pending a physical.

Cincinnati relievers combined for a 4.11 ERA that ranked 15th in the Majors and a 4.48 FIP that ranked 23rd in 2023. In general, it’s a thin and unproven group. Closer Alexis Diaz gives the Reds one high-end arm, and lefty Sam Moll proved to be a quietly strong deadline pickup.

Beyond that, the Reds lacked established, healthy arms. Righty Tejay Antone has been one of the game’s top-performing bullpen arms when healthy, but he missed the entire 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and lasted just 5 2/3 innings in 2023 before departing a September game due to elbow discomfort that proved to be season-ending. Lucas Sims posted a stout 3.10 ERA with a strong strikeout rate in 2023 but also walked more than 15% of his opponents. Waiver pickup Ian Gibaut had a nice season (3.33 ERA), but that was the 30-year-old’s first extended run of MLB success.

Adding some stability makes sense, though the 32-year-old Pagan (33 in May) has something of a rollercoaster track record. In seven big league seasons, Pagan has pitched for five teams. At times, he’s looked the part of a bona fide late-inning force, such as his 2019 season when he saved 20 games for the Rays while logging a 2.31 ERA, 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate. At other times, Pagan has been far too hittable and displayed below-average command. From 2020-22 with the Padres and Twins, he logged a combined 4.61 ERA with a walk rate nearly double that of his excellent ’19 campaign.

Most recently, Pagan gave the 2023 Twins 69 1/3 innings of 2.99 ERA ball, fanning a solid 23.8% of his opponents against a better-than-average 7.7% walk rate. He averaged nearly 96 mph on his heater and continued career-long trends of inducing both swinging strikes and chases on pitches off the plate at above-average clips. However, Pagan’s rocky 2022 showing in Minnesota pushed him down the bullpen hierarchy; after struggling as a closer and setup man in ’22, he was used in the middle innings and lower-leverage spots this past season.

It’s at least a moderate surprise to see the Reds, in particular, wind up signing Pagan, given that the primary knock against him throughout his career has been a susceptibility to home runs. That doesn’t seem to pair well with Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park, although to Pagan’s credit, he averaged a career-low 0.65 homers per nine frames this past season.

Still, entering the 2023 campaign, Pagan had yielded an average of 1.74 homers per nine innings. Among the 1080 relief pitchers to throw at least 250 career innings since way back in the 1800s, that was the highest rate of any pitcher (hat tip to The Atheltic’s Aaron Gleeman for pointing that out back in 2022). Generally, relievers who give up home runs at such a lofty rate just haven’t stuck around long enough to compile a meaningful number of innings at the MLB level.

The Reds are surely confident in their ability to help Pagan continue his newfound ability to mitigate round-trippers, but if his prior home run tendencies return, his new home confines in Cincinnati would likely only shine a spotlight on that problematic history. If he can keep curtailing the long ball, however, he gives the Reds a hard-throwing righty with late-inning experience who could help serve as a bridge to Diaz at the end of the game. Pagan has fanned 28.1% of his career opponents against a sharp 7% walk rate, and he boasts a very strong 14.1% swinging-strike rate in exactly 400 MLB innings.

In terms of payroll, the Reds will have no problem fitting Pagan (or just about any free agent, for that matter) onto the books. Now that Joey Votto is a free agent, the Reds’ only guaranteed contracts had belonged to Hunter Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile, who’ll earn a combined $6MM in 2024. Add in MLBTR’s projected salaries for their six eligible players — one of whom, Jonathan India, is a trade candidate — and a host of pre-arb names to round out the club, and Roster Resource projects a payroll just south of $59MM after accounting for the Pagan deal. And with Maile on a one-year deal, Pagan and Greene are (at least for now) the only players on guaranteed deals for the 2025 campaign.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Reds had expressed interest in Pagan. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Reds and Pagan had agreed to a two-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the $16MM guarantee and the opt-out possibility. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the even salary breakdown.

Quick Hits: Astros, Santana, Pagan, Muncy, Miller

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The Astros don’t have an off-day until June 12, so the team had been considering moving to a six-man rotation to help keep their starters fresh during this busy stretch of the schedule.  However, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) that the team might be forced to stick with a five-man alignment just due to a lack of available starting depth, since prospect Forrest Whitley has been placed on the Triple-A injured list due to a right lat strain.  Whitley was the team’s top option for a spot start or two, and now Ronel Blanco might be the next candidate if Houston does indeed opt for a sixth starter.

Jose Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t expected back until around the All-Star break, while Luis Garcia’s season has already been ended by Tommy John surgery.  The injury situation has left the Astros short on starting pitching, and Whitley’s lat strain has again delayed his MLB debut.  Once one of the sport’s top prospects, Whitley’s minor league career has been interrupted by a 50-game PED suspension in 2018, and by a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2021 season.

More on other injury situations that arose from today’s games…

  • Carlos Santana left during the sixth inning of the Pirates’ 6-3 loss to the Mariners today due to what the Bucs described as lumbar spine muscular tightness.  It would certainly seem like Santana will miss a couple of games to recovery, and a trip to the injured list is possible if his back problem doesn’t subside.  Connor Joe is the likeliest candidate for first base duty in Santana’s absence, but Pittsburgh might now be facing a depth problem at first base since Ji-Man Choi isn’t eligible to return from the 60-day IL until at least mid-July.
  • Twins reliever Emilio Pagan faced only one batter in today’s 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays before departing due to a left hip flexor strain.  Both Pagan and manager Rocco Baldelli expressed hope that an IL stint wasn’t necessary, with Pagan telling the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Jerry Zgoda and other reporters that “hopefully we caught it early enough, that I’m good to go in a day or two.  I think I’ll be ready to go tomorrow if need be.”
  • Max Muncy left today’s game with a cramp in his left hamstring, and the Dodgers infielder told MLB.com and other media that he has been dealing with cramps throughout the weekend.  Muncy will undergo an MRI to further examine the issue, but for now, he is day to day.  Between a scorching-hot April and then a big slump for much of May, Muncy is still hitting .208/.340/.530 over 203 plate appearances this season, and he belted his 17th home run before his early exit today.
  • X-rays were negative on Owen Miller’s right forearm, after the Brewers infielder was removed as a precautionary measure after being hit by a pitch in today’s game.  Manager Craig Counsell told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters that Miller is day to day, and could be back for the team’s next game on Tuesday (Monday is an off-day for the Brew Crew).  Miller’s hot bat has earned him more playing time, and after collecting two more hits today, Miller is slashing .330/.371/.513 over 124 PA.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Pitching Notes: Puk, Kluber, Pagan, Britton

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When discussing the Athletics’ 2023 rotation, general manager David Forst told reporters that reliever A.J. Puk will prepare for the season as a starter and enter spring training with a chance to earn a spot on Oakland’s staff, per Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Forst noted how Puk “got through a season healthy,” with the lefty only spending time on the COVID injured list during 2022.

Puk, a former first-round draft pick, threw 66 1/3 innings (62 appearances) during the 2022 season with a 3.12 ERA, a strong 27.1% strikeout rate, and an 8.2% walk rate. The 27-year-old had previously worked his way through Oakland’s minor league system as a starter but transitioned to a bullpen role in Triple-A and has yet to start a game at the major league level.

The As utilized a rotation comprised of Cole Irvin, James Kaprielian, Paul Blackburn, and Frankie Montas (before his trade to New York), but also received at least seven starts from Adam Oller, Adrian Martinez, JP Sears, Daulton Jefferies, and Ken Waldichuk. Nevertheless, Oakland’s vast staff housed the fifth-highest ERA (4.69) and sixth-lowest strikeout rate (18.3%), while allowing the third-most home runs to opposing batters (129).

In other news:

  • The Cubs have checked in with Corey Kluber as they search to add to their rotation, reports Sahdev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Sharma and Mooney add that Kluber is close friends with Cubs catcher Yan Gomes and is “more open-minded about Chicago” after spending the past few seasons on the East Coast. Kluber, who turns 37 years old in April, joined the Rays in 2022 on a one-year, $8MM contract laced with incentives that he maxed out, resulting in a total salary of $12MM. The two-time Cy Young winner pitched 164 innings (31 starts) with a 4.34 ERA, a below-average 20.2% strikeout rate, a tiny 3.1% walk rate, and a career-low 35.1% ground ball rate. However, Kluber labored as the season progressed, pitching to a 3.73 ERA in the first half compared to a 5.14 ERA after the All-Star break. Nevertheless, he was able to complete his first full season since 2018. Kluber made one appearance during Tampa Bay’s postseason push, throwing 1 2/3 innings of relief and giving up a solo shot in a Rays’ Wild Card loss.
  • Despite a shaky first season with the Twins, Emilio Pagan reportedly garnered trade interest at both the trade deadline in August and the non-tender deadline in November, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. Pagan, 31, pitched 63 innings of 4.43 ERA baseball, earning seven saves with a high 30.7% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate, and 39.9% ground ball rate. 2022 was Pagan’s third consecutive season with an ERA over 4.40 after gaining prominence pitching to a 2.31 ERA in 70 innings with the Rays in 2019. MLBTR predicts that Pagan will receive $3.7MM during his final trip through the arbitration process.
  • Free agent and former two-time All-Star Zack Britton has “started his normal offseason throwing program and should be a full go in spring training,” reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal adds that Britton is seeking a “one-year deal.” Britton, who turns 35 years old in December, pitched to a 1.90 ERA in 80 1/3 innings across 2019 and 2020 before dealing with elbow discomfort in early 2021 and undergoing Tommy John surgery near the end of the season. Britton returned to the mound near the end of the 2022 season but was soon shut down with shoulder fatigue. Despite two lost years, Britton will likely field calls from across the league, having recorded ground ball rates of at least 70% in eight of his last ten seasons, excluding 2022.
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