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Edward Mujica

Quick Hits: Soriano, Draft, Price, Red Sox

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Scott Boras, Rafael Soriano’s agent, tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he’s getting an increasing number of calls about his client.  It’s not surprising that interest in Soriano is picking up now that the season has begun and teams are dealing with injuries or ineffective relievers in their bullpens.  The Twins, Tigers and Blue Jays have all been linked to Soriano at various points over the winter, though it’s unknown as to whether any of those teams still have any interest in the veteran.

Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • Commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters (hat tip to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle) that he would like draft prospects’ “medical information to be made available to all clubs before the draft,” but the MLBPA hasn’t accepted this proposed change to the collective bargaining agreement.  Drellich explains the stances of both the league and the union on this issue, which most notably cropped up when the Astros didn’t sign first overall pick Brady Aiken due to concerns about his left UCL last summer.
  • David Price could be more inclined to sign with an NL team next winter since “he loves to hit,” a source tells George A. King III of the New York Post.  While this will likely be a minor factor in what could be a $200MM free agent decision for Price, maybe the desire for more plate appearances could end up being a tiebreaker if he gets otherwise similar offers from an AL and an NL team.  For what it’s worth, Price has an .071/.133/.071 slash line through 30 career PA.
  • With Edward Mujica struggling and his velocity down, CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam wonders if the Red Sox might eventually release Mujica and eat the roughly $4MM remaining on his contract rather than let the righty continue in an important relief role.  In my opinion, releasing Mujica would be a hasty move this early in the season since his xFIP (2.78) and SIERA (2.50) hint that he isn’t that badly, and his 4.70 ERA or 6.90 FIP are due to a couple of wildly inflated peripherals (most notably, 3.52 HR/9).
  • Several of baseball’s top pitchers were acquired by their current teams before they became so-called “aces,” and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe notes that the Red Sox attempted this strategy by acquiring two pitchers with great stuff (Joe Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez) in the hopes that one or both would develop into a rotation headliner.  This isn’t to say that the Sox might still not try to trade for an established ace in the near future, yet trying to find one in the early stages of his development is sometimes a better strategy than paying a big price to land a proven starter who might already have passed his prime.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Cabrera, Capuano, Mariners

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Commisoner Rob Manfred tops the 50 most fascinating figures in baseball, according to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman. Manfred has been pro-active during the first month of his tenure, Sherman opines, by already engaging the MLBPA over issues such as keeping the batter in the box between pitches and being ready to ignite play quicker after half-inning breaks while continuing the pitch clock experiment in the minors with an impetus to have them in MLB by next season. Rounding out Sherman’s top five are: Alex Rodriguez, Matt Harvey, Giancarlo Stanton, and Joe Maddon.

Here’s the latest news and notes from the American League:

Bullpen Notes: Cotts, Mujica, Brewers, Papelbon, K-Rod

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Recent Brewers signee Neal Cotts tells Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that he came close to hanging up his spikes before the Rangers offered him a deal for the 2013 season. After two fairly productive seasons in Texas, Cotts chose Milwaukee in part due to proximity to his home in Chicago.

Here are some notes on still-active bullpen situations around the game:

  • The Red Sox have indicated a willingness over the last few days to deal righty Edward Mujica, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Mujica, 30, signed a two-year deal to head to Boston last year after a strong 2013 with the Cardinals, but struggled mightily out of the gate. He rebounded with a big second half, however, throwing 25 1/3 innings of 1.78 ERA ball over the second half. All said, Mujica ended the year having allowed 3.90 earned per nine and having compiled a 3.70 FIP that was nearly identical to his fielding-independent mark from the season prior.
  • After adding Cotts, the Brewers will keep looking for a veteran, late-inning arm, potentially one with closing experience, assistant GM Gord Ash tells Haudricourt. The club is “juggling a lot of balls right now,” says Ash, who added that talks with the Phillies on Jonathan Papelbon are not dead even if nothing is imminent. Ash also indicated that the team was considering former closer Francisco Rodriguez, but noted that the club is not in on Rafael Soriano or Joba Chamberlain. Milwaukee also seems to have its eye out for a bargain, with Ash noting that the club is open to doing a minor league deal at any time.
  • A few of the other names still on the market do have some interest even though they have yet to ink a contract, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter links). After a solid 2014, southpaw Joe Beimel has interest from three clubs, including the incumbent Mariners, while fellow lefty Joe Thatcher has drawn attention from a handful of teams.

Quick Hits: Soriano, Indians, Price, Smith

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Rafael Soriano needs 32 more games finished to cause his $14MM club option to vest, but the Nationals closer says that vesting option or not, he wants to return to Washington in 2015, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports.  Soriano would need to get up to the 62-finish mark (a career high) to make it, though with the Nats in a tight pennant race, they’ll undoubtedly need their closer as much as possible down the stretch.

Here’s some more news and notes from around baseball…

  • Scouts for the Indians have been told to focus their attention on Rays minor leaguers, MLB Daily Dish’s Chris Cotillo reports, and Cotillo wonders if this could suggest that Cleveland is revisiting talks for David Price.  Cleveland and Tampa discussed a Price trade during the offseason, as Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported, that involved Carlos Santana and Danny Salazar going to the Rays. (Tampa Bay also had interest in Francisco Lindor but the Indians consider Lindor virtually untouchable in any trade.)  A new trade package, Cotillo speculates, could be Santana/Salazar for Price and a couple of Rays prospects, hence the Tribe’s interest in scouting Tampa’s farm system.
  • Also from Cotillo, the Angels made the same three-year, $15.75MM offer to both Joe Smith and Edward Mujica this past offseason and told both pitchers that the contract would go to whichever accepted first.  Smith took the deal first and is enjoying a strong season, even moving into the Halos’ closing job.  Mujica, meanwhile, signed a two-year, $9.5MM deal with the Red Sox and has struggled to a 5.45 ERA in 34 2/3 IP.
  • The Giants are still without agreements for five of their top 10 draft picks, a situation Cotillo believes could be due to the club devoting their time and draft pool resources to signing first-rounder Tyler Beede, who couldn’t negotiate until after the College World Series.
  • Despite the number of recent stars to come out of Cuba, teams are still relying on very little or no scouting information when signing these players, Danny Knobler writes for Bleacher Report.  Knobler’s piece explores the future of the Cuban talent pipeline while also delving into the limited data the White Sox and Dodgers, respectively, had when signing Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig to major contracts.
  • While the Royals’ farm system is still considered strong, it is short on prospects ready to help at the Major League level, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star writes.  Thanks to a few thin drafts, the prospect package sent to Tampa Bay in the James Shields trade and the fact that many of their top prospects of recent years are already in the bigs, “between Omaha and their [Double-A] club, there’s nobody that looks like they’re going to jump up soon as a significant piece,” an AL executive said.
    Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article719772.html#storylink=cpy

Red Sox To Sign Edward Mujica

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SATURDAY: The deal is official, with the club issuing a press release announcing Mujica's signing. As the Red Sox note, the team's 40-man roster is now at full capacity. Mujica's contract includes up to $1MM in incentives based upon games finished, tweets Alex Speier of WEEI.com.

THURSDAY: The Red Sox have agreed to terms on a two-year, $9.5MM contract with right-hander Edward Mujica, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. Mujica, who is represented by Octagon, will take a physical today, according to Passan.

Mujica-Edward

Mujica, 29, possesses some of the best command of any pitcher in the Majors. He issued just five walks in 64 2/3 innings this season to go along with 46 strikeouts and a 2.78 ERA. Mujica entered the season buried on St. Louis' bullpen depth chart but ascended to the role of closer. Jason Motte underwent Tommy John surgery, Mitchell Boggs flopped and the Cardinals elected to deploy rookie Trevor Rosenthal in a setup role. The end result was Mujica notching 37 saves for the Redbirds, though he wilted down the stretch and was a complete non-factor in the playoffs.

Mujica's late-season swoon likely cost him several million dollars, as did a free agent market stuffed with closer types of relievers. Mujica, Joe Nathan, Grant Balfour, Fernando Rodney, Joaquin Benoit, Chris Perez, Kevin Gregg and Jose Veras all saved 20-plus games in 2013.  The market also features plenty of former closers in the form of John Axford, Brian Wilson and Andrew Bailey (Axford and Bailey were non-tendered), further presenting teams with late-inning alternatives that helped to suppress Mujica's price tag.

Mujica will join a Red Sox bullpen that figures to be once again anchored by Koji Uehara. Junichi Tazawa, Craig Breslow and a presumably healthy Andrew Miller should join Mujica in bridging the gap to Uehara as the BoSox look to capture a second consecutive World Series title.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Sox Links: Mujica, Payroll, Drew

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Here's the latest from Fenway Park…

  • Edward Mujica will receive a $125K bonus for finishing 20 games, WEEI.com's Alex Speier reports.  Mujica will receive the same bonus for every additional five games he finishes, up to 55, leaving the reliever eligible for $2MM in bonus money in each of his two seasons in Boston.  Mujica took his physical today and his signing should be officially announced within the next few days.
  • Also from Speier, he breaks down how the recent signings of Mujica, Mike Napoli and A.J. Pierzynski affect the Red Sox payroll.  The Sox payroll currently projects as roughly $187.95MM for 2014, leaving them just under the $189MM luxury tax threshold.  While Speier argues that the club could go over the threshold, any further moves might have to come via trades, most likely from the team's excess of starting pitching.
  • The Red Sox "would love to bring back" Stephen Drew but re-signing the shortstop could be difficult due to the aforementioned budget issues, Speier writes.
  • The Sox are still looking for a left-handed bat for the left side of the infield as well as a right-handed hitting outfielder, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald tweets.  Drew, of course, would fit the bill as that infield bat.

Pitching Notes: Dodgers, Giants, Mujica, Ayala, Williams

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The market for starting pitchers has actually started off at reasonable prices, argues Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com. Running the numbers on the price of a projected win for the starters who have signed to date, he says that a preliminary look shows that early-moving teams look to have achieved solid value. Here's more on the pitching market around the league:

  • Even if the Dodgers are willing to spend the huge amount of cash that Masahiro Tanaka's posting and signing is expected to require, says Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com, it is far from clear how the club would sort its rotation out to accomodate him. GM Ned Colletti has said that he is "not going to close the door on any more starters" even after adding Dan Haren on a one-year deal with a vesting option. Saxon notes, however, that it would be more difficult to push aside Josh Beckett and/or Chad Billingsley than it was for the club to do last year with Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang. Of course, Tanaka may be good enough that, if the price is right, that problem is one you just deal with as best you can.
  • The Giants, on the other hand, seem less likely than their rivals to the south to consider the addition of another starter, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting that the club's rotation is set after re-signing Ryan Vogelsong. As Alex Pavlovic of the Mercury News noted earlier today, the rotation seemed complete upon the return of Vogelsong, given GM Brian Sabean's earlier comments that he would not make the veteran compete for his slot in the spring. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, and Tim Hudson round out the club's starting five.
  • Meanwhile, it could well be that San Francisco could look to add pen pieces given their decision to add veteran arms to the back of its rotation, reasons Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Sulia). It is easier and cheaper to add relief arms, he notes, and the club could look to ease the burden on its starters by following the Dodgers and Cardinals in trotting out multiple arms that can throw quality innings.
  • Free agent reliever Edward Mujica of the Cardinals is drawing interest from a variety of teams, according to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com. The Angels are probably out after inking Joe Smith, Cotillo notes. But the Orioles, Indians, and Cubs have at least kicked the tires on Mujica, joining the Phillies in pursuit of the 29-year-old. 
  • Right-handed reliever Luis Ayala, who produced solid results last year at age 35 for the Orioles and Braves, is also in search of a multi-year deal, Cotillo reports. He has not yet seen an offer, but has received interest from the Red Sox and Rays as well as the Dodgers, Giants, O's, and Phils. Meanwhile, the Royals have seemingly stepped away from Ayala after showing initial interest.
  • One other arm that could enter the market is Angels righty Jerome Williams. Soon to turn 32, Williams' agent Larry O'Brien tells Cotillo (Twitter link) that he is rooting against a tender from the Halos since "there are many teams he could effectively start for." That statement seems to imply what has long been suspected about Williams, which is that Los Angeles does not intend to use him as a starter. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes wrote in reporting Matt Swartz's $3.9MM projection for Williams, a non-tender is a very real possibility for the swingman. Of course, as MLBTR's Zach Links has explained, there are few teams with as many projected rotation holes as the Angels.

Phillies Links: Mujica, Ruiz, Amaro, Byrd

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Here are some notes out of Philadelphia…

Central Notes: Mujica, Rosenthal, Martinez, Tigers

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Many MLBTR readers will enjoy a read of this short piece, in which Luke Epplin of the New Yorker explores the origins of baseball's status as a thinking man's game, prominently featuring legendary hurler Christy Mathewson. In present day news, here are some links from the game's central divisions:

  • Though he seems to have quite a positive attitude, deposed Cardinals closer Edward Mujica has been relegated mostly to a cheerleading role in the post-season, writes MLB.com's Chad Thornburg. While Shelby Miller has also seen his role virtually eliminated, it doesn't figure to have any impact on his earning potential. But for Mujica, who MLBTR's Steve Adams predicted to garner a commitment of over $20MM on the upcoming free agent market, the lack of trust shown by the Cards quite possibly could create doubt amongst other franchises, particularly those looking for a closer.
  • The success of St. Louis's young arms is well documented, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch provides an interesting look at the development of the team's current late inning relief duo. Both Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez are hard-throwing converted position players who have settled into bullpen roles in their early twenties. And both could still become impact starters.
  • With nine players eligible for arbitration, the Tigers could have a lot of negotiating to do. As MLive.com's Chris Iott explains, it may prove difficult to reach agreement on a salary with starter Max Scherzer's agent, Scott Boras, given the righty's outstanding season. The most likely Detroit non-tender, according to Iott, is lefty Phil Coke, with utilityman Don Kelly also a candidate.

Free Agent Profile: Edward Mujica

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Edward Mujica entered the season as a solid middle reliever/setup man but quickly found himself thrust into the closer's role after Jason Motte went down with Tommy John surgery and Mitchell Boggs collapsed as Motte's successor. Many felt the ninth inning should go to flamethrowing 22-year-old Trevor Rosenthal, but Mujica silenced critics for much of the season by thriving in the role and upping his free agent stock accordingly.

Strengths/Pros

Few things in baseball are more frustrating than watching a relief pitcher come in and issue multiple walks; that's something Mujica's managers, teammates and fans virtually never have to worry about. Mujica-Edward Over the past four seasons, Mujica has allowed 37 walks in 275 2/3 innings (1.21 BB/9), but nine of those were intentional. Mujica will put a batter aboard via an unintentional free pass about once every 10 innings. As such, he has a pristine 1.001 WHIP dating back to 2010. The only "free agent" reliever who really comes close to matching Mujica in control is Mariano Rivera, and he won't be signing anywhere this winter.

Over that same four-year stretch, Mujica has a 47.2 percent ground-ball rate, and opponents are batting just .230 against him. Put simply, Mujica does a better job at keeping hitters off the basepaths than most relievers in the game.

Mujica earned just $3.2MM this season, so a qualifying offer would be a tremendous increase in his salary and is therefore highly unlikely. He won't come tied to draft pick compensation, and at age 29, he's one of the youngest free agent relievers on the market. He's also highly durable, having just one DL stint throughout his big league career; that injury was the result of a broken toe suffered when he was struck by a batted ball.

Weaknesses/Cons

The average big league reliever has averaged about eight strikeouts per nine innings over the past four seasons. Mujica has, in turn, whiffed 7.4 hitters per nine innings over that four-year stretch and has dropped to 6.4 strikeouts per nine frames in 2013 (while the MLB average for relievers has risen to 8.3). His low punchout total is a bit curious given his well above-average swinging strike rate (12.5 percent in 2013 and 11 percent for his career).

Advanced metrics like FIP (3.71), xFIP (3.53) and SIERA (3.25) don't necessarily back up Mujica's 2.78 ERA. His .263 BABIP is unusually low, although it's fair to wonder if it's actually a sustainable mark; he's had a BABIP south of .270 in each of the past four seasons. If that's the case, then it's likely that sabermetric stats undervalue him, as they measure him against the league average rather than his own career norms.

Perhaps the biggest knock on Mujica is his poor finish to the season. He carried a 1.73 ERA into September but crumbled in the season's final month, allowing nine runs on 18 hits and a pair of walks over his final 7 1/3 innings. That prolonged meltdown knocked him out of the team's closer spot will likely be brought up in contract discussions this offseason.

Personal

Mujica and his wife, Erika, reside in Yagua, Venezuela, per the Cardinals's media guide. The couple welcomed their first child, Brianna, into the world in July 2012. Mujica is often described as fun-loving, doing things like making custom t-shirts for his teammates with the Marlins to keep the clubhouse light (per MLB.com's Joe Frisaro).

Market

Many teams will be on the lookout for bullpen help this winter, and Mujica is one of the handful of available relievers that will come with ninth inning experience. While many maintain that ninth inning experience isn't a prerequisite for closers ("closers are made, not born"), Mujica's agent, Wil Polidor of Octagon, can boast that his client racked up 37 saves in his first season as a closer and should be compensated for that big number.

Teams don't pay for saves quite as much as they did a few years ago, but there are still old-school general managers and front offices that want to hand the ball to a guy who's "been there before" in the ninth inning. The Tigers, Rangers, Rays, Yankees, A's and Cubs will all lose their closers to free agency or retirement this winter. Other teams like the Mariners, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Indians have seen great uncertainty in their late-inning situations this season. The Cardinals could also express interest in retaining Mujica, though with Motte on the mend and Rosenthal pitching well of late, he may not have an opportunity to regain the closer role in St. Louis.

Of course, there will also be plenty of teams with closers in place who will look to Mujica as a reliable, durable setup man.

Expected Contract

Mujica is the same age that Brandon League was when he signed his three-year, $22.5MM contract with the Dodgers last offseason. While that's proven to be an overpay, that didn't deter the Reds from giving another under-30 reliever, Jonathan Broxton, a similar three-year, $21MM contract a few months later. Neither of those relievers boasted lofty strikeout rates in their walk seasons, and I imagine that will be Polidor's target for Mujica, while the three-year, $16.5MM deal that Joaquin Benoit signed prior to the 2011 season will be the floor.

Back in May, I looked at Mujica's free agent stock and noted that a strong season in the ninth inning couls land him a deal similar to Broxton's. Despite his slide at the end of the season, I believe that a three-year, $21MM deal remains a reasonable expectation given his youth, durability, elite command and strong track record.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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