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Edward Cabrera

Pirates Still Discussing Rotation Trades With Marlins, Exploring Free Agency

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The Pirates have added Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales to their rotation this winter but remain in active pursuit of at least one more starter, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Bucs are in ongoing trade discussions with multiple clubs, including the Marlins, and are still showing interest in various free agents, per Mackey. FanSided’s Robert Murray also wrote this morning, after the Bucs signed Josh Fleming, that Pittsburgh is still active on both the trade and free agent markets.

Miami has reportedly entertained interest in starters Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett at various points this offseason. Ballyhooed right-hander Eury Perez, who impressed with a 3.15 ERA through 91 1/3 innings as a 20-year-old rookie in 2023, is widely considered to be off limits.

Of the other Miami arms, Cabrera has generally been considered the “most” available. The 6’5″ 25-year-old is a former top-tier prospect himself but has dealt with command troubles through his first year-plus of big league service time and has not yet as established as the other three hurlers in question. Mackey indeed suggests that Cabrera is the likeliest target, reporting that a deal between the Bucs and the Fish would likely include an infielder such as Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales or Ji Hwan Bae.

Each of those three have varying levels of trade value themselves. Peguero has garnered the most prospect fanfare of the group but struggled in a 59-game MLB debut last year, hitting .237/.280/.374 in 213 plate appearances. Gonzales is a former No. 7 overall pick and top-100 prospect, but Baseball America now lists him ninth among Pittsburgh minor leaguers. Bae is another once-well-regarded prospect but exhausted his rookie eligibility last year with a tepid .231/.296/.311 showing through 371 plate appearances. All three are middle infielders, though Gonzales and Bae are considered limited to second base (and, in Bae’s case, the outfield).

Any member of that trio would figure to be just one of several pieces going to Miami, should a deal come together. Though Cabrera himself has some questions about his lackluster command, he’s still performed far better in the majors than any of those Pittsburgh infielders, and controllable young pitching is typically the most difficult type of asset to acquire.

Since making his big league debut in 2021, Cabrera has pitched 197 2/3 innings of 4.01 ERA ball. That includes a rocky debut that lasted just 26 1/3 frames in ’21, however. Over the past two seasons, he sports a more encouraging 3.73 mark in 171 1/3 frames. Cabrera has averaged better than 96 mph on his heater, punched out an above-average 26.6% of his opponents and induced grounders at a strong 50.6% clip. Still, fielding-independent metrics are a bit more bearish on him than ERA due to his 13.7% walk rate. In that same 2022-23 window, Cabrera sports a 4.50 FIP and 4.42 SIERA.

If Cabrera can improve his command at all, he has the makings of a clear big league starter. His fastball and changeup give him a pair of above-average to plus offerings, with the change in particular befuddling lefties and thus mitigating typical platoon issues. Southpaws have flailed away at the pitch and produced a hapless .184/.291/.315 batting line in 433 plate appearances against Cabrera. Because his slider hasn’t been as consistently effective, Cabrera has struggled against right-handed opponents. They’ve hit just .231 against him but posted a huge .376 OBP and slugged .422.

Cabrera’s 1.147 years of big league service time put him on track to be arbitration-eligible as a Super Two player next winter. That’d make him arb-eligible four times rather than the standard three, but he’s under club control through the 2028 season regardless.

Beyond their interest in Miami’s starters, the Pirates have seen free agents Domingo German and Noah Syndergaard throw recently, per Mackey. Either figures to be available on a low-cost deal, and it seems entirely feasible that the Pirates could both trade for a pre-arb starter who won’t alter their payroll and still add another low-cost rotation piece on a one-year deal. Other veterans still on the market –beyond top starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who are surely out of Pittsburgh’s price range — include Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu, Mike Clevinger and Eric Lauer.

Latest On Marlins’ Rotation Trade Possibilities

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As the free agent starting pitching market thins, there’s been some chatter about the Marlins as a team that might subtract a pitcher in trade. That attention has generally been centered on left-hander Jesús Luzardo and young righty Edward Cabrera. Last week, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote that Cabrera had the better chance of that duo of changing hands, although it wasn’t clear how likely Miami was to move either player.

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald added some context on the trade possibilities involving Miami’s starters this afternoon. Jackson writes that the Fish are willing to consider offers on each of Luzardo, Cabrera and left-hander Braxton Garrett, although he indicates there aren’t any proposals under “active consideration.”

A trade still seems a possibility but isn’t necessarily likely. The Fish haven’t done much under first-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix. Miami is the only team that still hasn’t signed a free agent to a major league deal this offseason. Their biggest moves were trade pickups of catcher Christian Bethancourt, reliever Calvin Faucher and out-of-options infielder Vidal Bruján.

It’s an underwhelming offseason for a team coming off a surprising Wild Card berth. The Fish seem likely to lose a 36-homer hitter after Jorge Soler declined his player option. They’re looking to add at shortstop, but the free agent class at the position is dismal. They could use another bat in the corner outfield/designated hitter mix.

For all the lineup questions, their biggest loss in 2024 is one to injury. Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery during last year’s postseason. With the 2022 NL Cy Young winner missing the entire season, the Fish project for a season-opening starting five of Eury Pérez, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera and Trevor Rogers.

That’s still a promising group, but their once vaunted rotation depth has thinned. In addition to the Alcantara injury, the Fish dealt Pablo López and prospect Jake Eder last year. Depth options beyond their front five include Ryan Weathers and Bryan Hoeing. Miami should get a boost from former #3 overall pick Max Meyer, who is 18 months removed from his own Tommy John procedure. Jackson writes that the new front office still considers Meyer a viable starting pitcher; prospect evaluators were divided on whether he was better suited for a high-leverage relief role before the injury.

Meyer only made two MLB starts before the unfortunate ligament tear. Rogers was limited to four starts, all in April, last year by biceps and lat injuries. Pérez, widely regarded as the sport’s top pitching prospect before an impressive rookie season, logged 128 innings between Triple-A and the majors last season. Miami could still be cautious about expanding the 20-year-old’s workload too far beyond 150 frames.

Luzardo and Garrett are Miami’s only healthy starters who topped 100 MLB innings a season ago. They both had strong seasons. The former posted a 3.58 ERA while punching out more than 28% of opposing hitters in 32 starts. With three years of arbitration control and a fastball approaching 97 MPH on average, he likely has more trade value than anyone in the Miami rotation aside from Pérez (who certainly isn’t getting moved).

Garrett has a more extended control window, as he won’t get to free agency for another five seasons. The former #7 overall pick allowed 3.66 earned runs per nine in just under 160 frames. Garrett doesn’t have the huge velocity of most of his rotation mates, sitting around 91 MPH with his heater. Yet his strong secondary offerings and plus command have translated into mid-rotation results for the last two seasons.

Cabrera is a more volatile young arm. The 25-year-old righty worked to a 4.24 ERA across 99 2/3 MLB frames. He generated an impressive 27.2% strikeout rate and 54.3% ground-ball percentage with a fastball that sits above 96 MPH. His control remains a significant question, however. Cabrera walked more than 15% of opposing hitters last season and has handed out free passes at a 14% rate over parts of three years in the big leagues. As with Garrett, he’s under club control for five more seasons.

Latest On Marlins’ Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo

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As with the past several offseasons, there’s been plenty of speculation and reporting about the Marlins’ willingness to deal from their starting rotation. Chatter surrounding the possibility of Miami dealing a starter didn’t bring about a high-profile trade two winters ago — Miami did deal Zach Thompson to the Pirates as part of the Jacob Stallings deal — but last offseason saw the Fish ship righty Pablo Lopez to Minnesota alongside prospects Jose Salas and Byron Chourio in a deal that brought Luis Arraez to Miami. Talk this offseason has centered primarily around lefty Jesus Luzardo and righty Edward Cabrera, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that a trade involving Luzardo is “less likely” than a trade of the younger Cabrera. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote late last week that the Marlins have been open to discussing both in trades.

While Cabrera has more club control remaining — five years, compared to Luzardo’s three — he’s also the less-established arm of the two, so it makes sense that the Marlins would be a bit more reluctant to part with the more experienced Luzardo.

Cabrera, who’ll turn 26 in April, has already spent parts of three seasons in the big leagues. After getting roughed up as a rookie, the former top prospect has made strides in the past two seasons, logging a combined 3.73 ERA with a sharp 26.6% strikeout rate. He throws hard (96.2 mph average fastball), has generally been good at keeping the ball in the yard (1.10 HR/9) and boasts a strong 50.6% ground-ball rate. However, Cabrera has also walked far too many opponents, issuing free passes to 13.7% of batters faced.

That lack of command has at times prevented him from working deep into games. While some of his short starts have been attributable to the Marlins monitoring his workload as he’s worked through a shoulder impingement and elbow inflammation, Cabrera’s average of 4 2/3 innings per start to this point in his career is quite brief, even by today’s standards. Cabrera worked a career-high eight shutout innings against the A’s in August of 2022, but that was one of just two career outings where he’s recorded an out beyond the sixth inning (the other was in his MLB debut a year prior).

Clearly, there are still some final steps to take in Cabrera’s development, but his body of work over the past two years offers plenty of reason for optimism. Couple that with club control that stretches through the 2028 season — he’ll likely be arbitration-eligible four times as a Super Two player — and Cabrera should appeal to plenty of pitching-hungry clubs, even if he’s the less-established of Miami’s two “available” starters.

As for the Marlins’ goals in a trade, they’ll surely vary from prospective trade partner to prospective trade partner. The Fish entered the offseason looking for long-term help behind the plate and at shortstop. Rosenthal suggests that a viable long-term option at short, in particular, might pique the Marlins’ interest when it comes to moving a controllable pitcher. As things stand, utilityman Jon Berti, glove-first prospect Jacob Amaya and former top prospects Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards are among the organization’s options there.

That said, Miami also hasn’t done much to upgrade its long-term catching outlook this winter. Christian Bethancourt was acquired in a small trade with Cleveland, who’d acquired him from the Rays. He and Nick Fortes are the only catchers on Miami’s 40-man roster. None of the organization’s current top 10 prospects at Baseball America are catchers.

There’s no indication yet that a trade of Cabrera, Luzardo or any other Marlins starter should be considered especially likely. But the Marlins have sat out free agency entirely this offseason, and the market hasn’t exactly been deep in options at their foremost positions of need anyhow. They likely view the trade market as their best path to addressing those needs in the short- and long-term, as in addition to the thin free-agent market, the team’s projected $97MM payroll (via Roster Resource) is already about $5MM greater than last year’s Opening Day mark.

The Fish are still about $13MM shy of where they ended the 2023 season, but it’s fair to wonder just how much appetite ownership has for additional spending. Rosenthal writes, for instance, that Josh Bell’s $16.5MM salary (which the club acquired in order to dump the majority of Jean Segura’s contract on the Guardians) is one of the reasons that the Marlins have been reluctant to spend this winter. If that’s the case, it’s hard to envision owner Bruce Sherman greenlighting additional free-agent spending of note, which either sets the stage for some trade activity or a disappointing offseason on the player acquisition front (possibly both).

Marlins’ Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers Drawing Trade Interest

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It wouldn’t be an offseason or trade deadline without the annual tradition of rumors regarding the Marlins’ collection of young starting pitchers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes this morning that Miami has received interest in right-hander Edward Cabrera and lefty Trevor Rogers this winter, though there’s no indication a deal involving either has been seriously discussed.

Miami’s wealth of starting pitching has been the focus of other clubs for several years now, although the extent of that depth is probably overstated now. The Fish traded Pablo Lopez as part of their Luis Arraez acquisition and will be without 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara in 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. Pitching prospect Jake Eder was traded at the deadline to acquire Jake Burger from the White Sox. Fellow prospects Max Meyer (2022 TJS), Dax Fulton (2023 elbow surgery) and Sixto Sanchez (shoulder surgeries in 2021, 2022) have all seen injuries slow their trajectories as well — particularly in the case of Sanchez.

Currently, the Marlins project to trot out a rotation including Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers and ballyhooed young right-hander Eury Perez. There’s no way the Marlins would move Perez, who entered 2023 as arguably the top pitching prospect in the sport and debuted as a 20-year-old with 19 starts of 3.15 ERA ball. Similarly, Rosenthal suggests that Luzardo and Garrett are likely considered off limits. Beyond that top quintet, the Marlins’ top in-house options are 27-year-old Bryan Hoeing and lefty Ryan Weathers, whom they acquired in a buy-low deal from the Padres over the summer.

The extent to which Cabrera or Rogers is available will depend on the strength of offers made by other clubs, as there’s no urgency for Miami to move either pitcher. Rogers, the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up, has three years of team control remaining. Cabrera has five. Rogers has had a pair of disappointing years since a brilliant rookie campaign, pitching to a 5.26 ERA in his past 125 frames (just 18 of which came in an injury-ruined 2023 season). Cabrera has been better but inconsistent while showing worrying command; he’s logged a 3.73 ERA and fanned 26.6% of his opponents in his past 171 1/3 innings but has also issued walks at a 13.7% clip in that time.

Between the greater amount of club control and the better recent track record (both in terms of health and performance), Cabrera has the greater trade value of the pair. He’ll likely be eligible for Super Two status next winter and thus be arbitration-eligible four times rather than three, but Rogers is already into his arb years and projected to earn a modest $1.5MM this coming season, via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

With their past trades and all of the injuries throughout the prospect ranks, the Marlins are no longer as deep as some may believe them to be. It’s still feasible that they could trade someone like Cabrera or Rogers in an effort to acquire help at another area of need like catcher, shortstop or center field (depending on the new front office’s plans for Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s defensive home). It’s a thin free-agent market for bats, after all, and the Marlins likely don’t have extensive financial flexibility anyhow.

That said, if new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix does deal from the rotation to address another need, it’d likely just create a hole on the starting staff that would need to be filled via free agency or a subsequent trade. The Marlins tried this last year when dealing Lopez and signing Johnny Cueto, but the results weren’t at all what the team had hoped, as Cueto posted a 6.02 ERA in 52 1/3 innings.

Marlins Place Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Soler On IL

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The Marlins announced that they have placed right-hander Sandy Alcantara on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm flexor strain. Also, outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler going on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain and right-hander Geoff Hartlieb has been designated for assignment. Outfielder Dane Myers and right-hander Edward Cabrera have been recalled while left-hander Devin Smeltzer had his contract selected.

It’s a batch of unfortunate and ill-timed news for the Marlins, who are in the thick of a playoff race. They haven’t qualified for the playoffs in a full season since 2003 but have a chance this year, currently just half a game behind the Reds for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The club hasn’t provided any specifics about the expected absences but it seems possible they might have to undergo the rest of the race without either their best pitcher or their best power hitter.

Alcantara is one of the best pitchers in the sport when at his peak, which he showed last year. He finished 2022 with a 2.28 earned run average over 228 2/3 innings, earning the National League Cy Young in the process. He struck out 23.4% of batters, walked just 5.6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 53.4% rate. Here in 2023, his ERA has jumped to 4.14, but he seemed to have righted the ship after a rough start. He had a 5.08 ERA through June 21 but has a much more palatable 3.13 ERA since then. Soler, meanwhile, is an incredibly inconsistent hitter but is one of the best in the league when on a heater. He has 35 home runs this year and is slashing .240/.329/.513 overall for a wRC+ of 124.

Subtracting that arm from the pitching staff and that bat from the lineup is obviously less than ideal, especially when considering the timing. There’s just over three weeks remaining in the regular season, which doesn’t give either player much time to get healthy before it could be too late. Further updates will undoubtedly come after more tests, but both injuries are worrisome. Oblique strains are notoriously frustrating and can often keep players sidelined for weeks, even in mild cases.

A flexor strain, meanwhile, can be even more serious. Both Dustin May of the Dodgers and Drew Rasmussen of the Rays were diagnosed with flexor strains earlier this year before each required season-ending surgery. That’s not to say that Alcantara is necessarily going to follow the same path, but it shows the potential severity of today’s news.

Looking ahead to the winter, Alcantara won’t be significantly impacted from a financial perspective as he signed an extension that runs through 2026 with a club option for 2027. Soler, on the other hand, has one year and $9MM remaining on his deal but can opt out at season’s end. Assuming he is healthy, he should be able to top that guarantee on the open market based on his strong season and the lack of impact bats available this winter.

For now, it seems as though Cabrera will jump into the rotation to replace Alcantara. The 25-year-old posted a 4.79 ERA in 17 starts earlier this year, with an unsightly 15.4% walk rate, before getting optioned down to the minors. In five Triple-A starts since then, he has a 2.22 ERA with a 10.6% walk rate that’s still high but a marked improvement over his major league results this year.

Hartlieb, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and had his contract selected a month ago. He’s only been able to get into two big league games in that time, spending much of it on optional assignment. He has a 3.29 ERA in 38 1/3 Triple-A innings this year, with a 25.3% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has less than two years of service time but will be out of options next year. The Marlins will place him on waivers in the coming days. If he were to clear, he would have the right to elect free agency by virtue of having a previous career outright.

Smeltzer, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and has been on and off their roster all year. This is the fourth time the club has selected his contract this season, with each of the previous three instances eventually resulting in him being designated for assignment and accepting an outright assignment. He’s tossed 18 2/3 innings for the club this year with a 5.79 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 4.8% walk rate and 32.8% ground ball rate.

Craig Mish and Jordan McPherson, both of the Miami Herald, relayed the details of these transactions prior to the official club announcement.

Marlins Had Interest In Turner, Lynn, Cron Prior To Trade Deadline

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The Marlins were one of the league’s busier teams in advance of the trade deadline, as Miami made several moves to bolster its lineup and bullpen for the wild card race.  Such names as Josh Bell, David Robertson, Jake Burger, Jorge Lopez, and Ryan Weathers joined the organization, but there were plenty of interesting players on Miami’s radar, including a few who weren’t previously mentioned in pre-deadline buzz.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Levi Weaver report that the Marlins had “extensive discussions” with the Red Sox about Justin Turner, while Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins were also interested in Lance Lynn and C.J. Cron.

Reports surfaced on July 28 that the Sox weren’t moving Turner, which is probably when (as Rosenthal and Weaver write) the Marlins turned their attention to other position players.  Miami’s talks with the White Sox about Lynn also developed into the eventual Burger trade, as the Fish landed Burger for left-hander Jake Eder in a one-for-one swap.  Burger was also something of a fallback once the Marlins balked at the Nationals’ asking price for Jeimer Candelario, and Miami was more comfortable trading a controllable pitcher like Eder for another younger player with multiple years of control, whereas Candelario is a free agent after the season.

Lynn and Cron were seen as likely trade candidates since the White Sox and Rockies are both out of contention, and indeed both players were moved in pre-deadline deals.  (Chicago sent Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers as part of a five-player trade, while the Rockies dealt Cron and Randal Grichuk to the Angels for two pitching prospects.)  There would certainly have been more eyebrows raised over a Turner deal given that the Red Sox are fighting for a wild card berth in the American League, yet even such a trade wouldn’t have been a total shock considering how Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom both moved and acquired veterans at the 2022 deadline when Boston was also on the periphery of the playoff chase.

This year’s deadline season was comparatively quieter at Fenway Park, as the Sox only acquired Luis Urias from the Brewers and sent Enrique Hernandez to the Dodgers.  The Red Sox were known to be looking for controllable pitching, and Rosenthal/Weaver theorize that the Marlins’ deep crop of arms might have gotten Bloom to at least consider the idea of moving Turner.

Speculatively, it is also worth wondering if Edward Cabrera might have been part of the Marlins/Red Sox talks.  Jackson and Mish write that several teams called about Cabrera, to the point that the Marlins had Devin Smeltzer on hand in case Cabrera was moved prior to his scheduled start on Monday.  Cabrera only lasted three innings in that start, and he was optioned to Triple-A on Wednesday and Smeltzer’s contract was officially selected from Triple-A a day later.

As much as the Red Sox needed pitching, it is safe to guess that trading Turner for almost anyone wouldn’t have gone over well with Boston fans, or even within the clubhouse.  Turner has hit .286/.356/.481 with 17 homers over 441 plate appearances, with his offense steadily increasing over the course of the season.  Though Turner will be 39 in November, he is still playing well enough that it’s possible he could opt out of the final season of his two-year contract with the Sox and again enter free agency this winter, looking to land a more lucrative multi-year commitment.  If that scenario occurs, one would imagine the Marlins would come calling, considering their interest in Turner dates back at last winter.

Marlins Option Edward Cabrera

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Amid the flurry of deadline moves yesterday, the Marlins optioned right-hander Edward Cabrera to Triple-A Jacksonville, with Jordan McPherson of The Miami Herald among those who relayed the info.

Cabrera, 25, was generally considered one of the top 100 prospects in the league in his time in the minors but has yet to put together an extended stretch of big league success. He made his debut in the big leagues in 2021 with seven starts, posting an ERA of 5.81 in those. In 2022, he was able to get that down to 3.01, obviously a much better number, but that came in just 14 starts as he made multiple trips to the injured list. He was probably lucky to have that ERA, as his .207 batting average on balls in play and 86.1% strand rate were both on the fortunate side of average, leading to a 4.59 FIP and 4.68 SIERA.

Here in 2023, Cabrera was able to stay healthy for the first half of the season. He did land on the IL in mid-June due to right shoulder impingement, returning after just over a month. His 17 starts and 77 innings are already personal highs at the major league level, and he’s getting strikeouts at a strong 27.6% rate as well as grounders at a 54.4% clip. But he’s paired those with a 15.4% walk rate, the highest such rate of any pitcher with 70 innings pitched this year, almost a full percentage point beyond Alek Manoah’s 14.6% rate. Despite a solid combination of strikeouts and grounders, those control issues have Cabrera’s ERA at 4.79 for the year.

Despite once having a rotation surplus, the Marlins have seen that thinned out this year. They traded Pablo López to the Twins in the offseason and currently have Trevor Rogers and Max Meyer on the 60-day IL. Their rotation mix is now Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Johnny Cueto and Braxton Garrett. With Cabrera nudged out, it’s possible that his spot goes to Ryan Weathers, who was just acquired from the Padres in the Garrett Cooper trade yesterday. Eury Pérez has been optioned himself to monitor his workload, but he could be back up at some point.

This option will likely put the Marlins and Cabrera in a bit of a bind since he only has one option season remaining. Once he spends 20 days on optional assignment, he will burn that last option, meaning he will enter 2024 out of options unless he’s quickly recalled in the coming weeks. It’s unlikely to affect his path to free agency, as he came into this season with 168 days, just under the 172 required for a full year. He’s already gone well beyond that one-year mark, though his chances of reaching Super Two status after 2024 might slip depending on how long he’s in the minors.

The Marlins have a bit of time to decide what to do. If they still believe Cabrera is capable of reining in his control and taking a step forward as a major league starter, they can keep him in that role. Cueto is likely to return to free agency this winter as his $10.5MM club option for 2024 will probably be spurned in favor of a $2.5MM buyout, since he’s mostly been injured and not at his best this year. That could reopen a spot for Cabrera next year, though Rogers and Meyer might be healthy and back in the mix by then as well.

If they think his true future is in the bullpen, they could consider giving him some time in that role now so that he goes into 2024 with a bit of preparation, but doing so would give them a bit less starting depth for the final months of this season. Once the offseason rolls around, they could perhaps pursue trading Cabrera to a rebuilding club with more willingness to give him a starting job at the big league level, though that will be an avenue to pursue in the future. For now, the Fish seem to be at a turning point with the former prospect, which will be an interesting situation to monitor.

Marlins Place Edward Cabrera On 15-Day Injured List

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2:53PM: Cabrera’s IL placement is somewhat precautionary in nature, manager Skip Schumaker told McPherson and other reporters.  “We’re hoping it’s just only two starts [missed].  I don’t think he’s going to miss a bullpen.  He might even throw through that,” Schumaker said.

2:19PM: After already placing Jean Segura on the 10-day injured list earlier today, the Marlins have sent another notable player to the IL.  The Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson (Twitter link) reports that the Fish have placed Edward Cabrera on the 15-day IL due to a right shoulder impingement, with the placement retroactive to June 14.  Right-hander Huascar Brazoban has been called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

Tapped by many as a possible breakout candidate for the 2023 season, it has been an up-and-down year for Cabrera, with his inflated 14.1% walk rate and 17.3% home run rate contributing to much of this inconsistency.  While Cabrera generally does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground (53.7% groundball rate), his big flies have yielded a lot of damage, as his homer rate is the sixth-highest of any hurler in the league with at least 60 innings pitched.  The result is a 4.70 ERA, despite Cabrera’s impressive 28.9% strikeout rate.

Cabrera joins Trevor Rogers and Johnny Cueto as projected rotation stalwarts currently on the injured list, with Rogers and Cueto each on the 60-day version of the IL.  The nature of Cabrera’s shoulder problem isn’t yet known, as an “impingement” could describe a more serious concern or just a minor issue that would allow Cabrera to return in the minimum 15 days.  The right-hander already missed around seven weeks of the 2022 season due to elbow tendinitis, as well as a minor ankle sprain that sent him to the IL at the very end of the season.

The Marlins had slated Cabrera to start Monday’s game against the Blue Jays, so the club doesn’t have long to decide on a replacement.  A bullpen game is one option, or the Fish On First blog (Twitter links) notes that Jeff Lindgren or Chi Chi Gonzalez could be called up for a spot start, as both pitchers are on a normal amount of rest between outings for Triple-A Jacksonville.  Neither Lindgren or Gonzalez are on the 40-man roster, but Avisail Garcia could be moved to the 60-day IL to create space.

Latest On Marlins’ Rotation

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Even after trading Pablo López for Luis Arraez as part of their effort to overhaul the lineup, the Marlins go into 2023 with a strong group of starting pitchers. Defending Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara is followed by Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and offseason pickup Johnny Cueto. The fifth spot has at least been a bit up in the air, with each of Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera having a case for the job out of camp.

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that Cabrera appears to have moved ahead of Garrett on the depth chart. Cabrera has had the edge with regards to Spring Training performance. He’s tossed five innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts and a pair of walks; Garrett, on the other hand, has been tagged for ten runs in 9 1/3 frames with seven punchouts, three walks and a hit batter.

There are certainly more important factors in the club’s decision than small-sample performances in exhibition games. One could argue Cabrera entered camp with the upper hand given his prospect status and higher-octane stuff. The right-hander worked to a 3.01 ERA over 14 starts last year, a solid rookie showing in spite of elbow tendinitis that resulted in a six-week injured list stint. Cabrera averaged north of 96 MPH on his fastball and generated swinging strikes on an excellent 13.3% of his total pitches. That power stuff had previously gotten him onto Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list each season from 2020-22.

The only area of concern for the 24-year-old Cabrera was some inconsistency in his strike-throwing. He walked an elevated 11.3% of batters faced, relying on an unsustainable 86.1% strand rate and .207 batting average on balls in play to keep his ERA around 3.00. Cabrera’s season was overwhelmingly positive overall, though, and the organization no doubt anticipates him pitching alongside Alcantara and Luzardo towards the top of the staff for years to come.

Garrett, 25, is a former seventh overall pick and top prospect in his own right. His stock had dimmed a bit in recent years thanks to inconsistent minor league performances. Garrett had a quietly strong 2022 campaign, though, posting a 3.15 ERA in seven Triple-A starts. More impressively, he worked to a 3.58 ERA with better than average strikeout (24.1%), walk (6.4%) and ground-ball (47.8%) numbers in 17 big league outings. Garrett’s 11.8% swinging strike percentage was solid despite a pedestrian 91.4 MPH average fastball.

Both Cabrera and Garrett figure to get into the Miami rotation throughout the season, as virtually no team goes through a 162-game schedule without any injuries. It’d seem Cabrera is trending towards first crack, with Jackson suggesting that Miami is likelier to option Garrett to Triple-A Jacksonville than have him start the season in long relief at the MLB level. The Alabama native has one minor league option year remaining, as does Cabrera.

Marlins Explored Trades For Mets’ Brett Baty

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The Marlins spent much of the season looking for ways to convert their surplus of starting pitchers into some help at the plate, and that quest might have ended this week when the Fish dealt Pablo Lopez to the Twins as part of a four-player swap that sent Luis Arraez to Miami.  Before that move, however, Mets third base prospect Brett Baty was one of the other names on Miami’s radar, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Marlins were willing to offer either Jesus Luzardo or Edward Cabrera in return.

Reports earlier this month indicated that the Marlins had also talked to the Mets about Eduardo Escobar, when New York seemingly had an agreement in place with Carlos Correa.  Had the Correa contract been finalized, an Escobar deal to the Marlins might’ve been been more viable, but the Mets naturally opted to hang onto Escobar once the club had some issues with Correa’s physical.  Heyman writes that the Marlins’ interest in Baty existed “both before and after the Mets’ Carlos Correa deal fell through,” and it is probably safe to assume that the Mets’ willingness to move Baty also diminished in the aftermath of the Correa situation.

While there seems to be no financial limit on the Mets’ desire to upgrade their roster, Steve Cohen’s splashy dives into free agency have been related to the club’s desire to hang onto its minor league depth.  While New York has moved some top young players in trades during Cohen’s two-plus years as owner, the Mets haven’t been willing to entirely clean out the farm system for proven veterans.  As such, players like Baty, Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, and prospects further away from the majors have remained in New York’s organization.

Since Correa is no longer in the picture and the 34-year-old Escobar is entering his last year under contract, Baty may once again be the Amazins’ third baseman of the future, or even present if he starts to take on a larger role in 2023.  Baty made his MLB debut last season and could potentially be deployed in a platoon with Escobar this year, or might see some action in left field.  As Baty recently told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, he would’ve been happy to switch positions in the event of a Correa signing, saying “I just want to be in the big leagues helping a team win.”  Baty also said he feels “stronger than ever” in the wake of the thumb surgery that prematurely ended his 2022 season, and though he has been fully healed since November, Baty will be heading to Spring Training early to make up for lost prep time.

With Baty looking like a key figure in the Mets’ future plans, it would’ve taken quite a trade haul to get the team to change its mind about trading the third baseman….a haul akin to, say, a controllable and talented young pitcher like Luzardo or Cabrera.  Such a trade may no longer be on the table in the wake of the Arraez move, but it would’ve been a fascinating swap of young talents, especially with the added wrinkle of the Mets and Marlins being division rivals.  Either Luzardo or Cabrera would’ve added youth and long-term control to a veteran Mets rotation that currently has only one pitcher (Kodai Senga) locked up beyond the 2024 season.  Carlos Carrasco is entering the last year of his contract, while Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Jose Quintana are all only guaranteed through the 2024 campaign (though Verlander has a vesting option for 2025).

Had the Marlins successfully landed Baty, their roster moves of the last few weeks would’ve naturally been quite different, and the Arraez trade likely doesn’t happen.  In this scenario, Baty likely becomes the new everyday third baseman, while Jean Segura would’ve played second base rather than the hot corner.  This would’ve still opened the door for Jazz Chisholm Jr. to be moved to center field, as the Marlins are seeing if the All-Star second baseman’s speed and arm can translate to success as an outfielder.

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