Eduardo Rodriguez

MLBTR Podcast: Tyler Glasnow, Jung Hoo Lee, D-Backs’ Signings and the Braves’ Confusing Moves

By Darragh McDonald | December 20, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Dodgers acquire and extend Tyler Glasnow (0:30)
The Giants signed outfielder Jung Hoo Lee (7:15)
Diamondbacks sign Eduardo Rodriguez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (13:05)

Plus, Steve Adams joins to answer your questions, including…

What’s going on with Atlanta shuffling all these contracts around? (21:25)
Will the Mariners do anything with the payroll they jettisoned? (30:15)

Check out our past episodes!

Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Deferred Money – listen here
Winter Meetings, Ohtani Secrecy, and the Mariners Shedding Salary – listen here
Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!

NL West Notes: Snell, Dodgers, Manaea, Giants, E-Rod

By Mark Polishuk | December 16, 2023 at 11:08am CDT

“The Dodgers are showing interest in seemingly every pitcher but Blake Snell,” Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes, running counter to Heyman’s own report from a month ago suggesting that Los Angeles was one of the teams in on the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. While Heyman didn’t go into specifics about why Snell may no longer be on the Dodgers’ radar, obviously much has changed for L.A. within the last month — namely the Shohei Ohtani signing and (on the more immediate pitching front) the impending trade and extension involving Tyler Glasnow.

Since Los Angeles exceeded the luxury tax last season, the Dodgers had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft as compensation for Ohtani, who rejected the Angels’ qualifying offer. Snell also rejected a QO from the Padres, so the thought of giving up two more picks to add Snell might simply not be palatable for the Dodgers. While Snell’s market has been a little less clear than other top pitchers on the free agent market, such clubs as the Giants, Red Sox, and Padres have all been linked to Snell at various points, and it remains to be seen what other suitors might emerge once the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jordan Montgomery are off the board. The Dodgers continue to be involved in the hunt for Yamamoto, and could pursue other trade options beyond Glasnow in order to address the lack of proven depth in their rotation.

Diamondbacks Sign Eduardo Rodriguez To Four-Year Deal

By Nick Deeds | December 8, 2023 at 4:05pm CDT

After falling to the Rangers in the World Series, the upstart Diamondbacks have acted quickly and decisively to bolster their rotation. Arizona announced the signing of left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year contract with a conditional option for 2028. It’s reportedly a four-year, $80MM guarantee for the Mato Sports Management client.

The deal is slightly backloaded, with Rodriguez making $14MM in the first year, followed by salaries of $20MM, $21MM and $19MM. He’s guaranteed a $6MM buyout on a mutual/vesting option for 2028. The option would vest at a $17MM salary if Rodriguez pitches 150 innings in 2027 or 300 innings between 2026-27. It would vest at $18MM if the southpaw gets to 175 innings in ’27 or 350 frames in ’26-’27. The option price can escalate based on Rodriguez’s Cy Young finishes, while the deal contains a 10-team n0-trade list.

For the reigning NL champions, Rodriguez provides a third playoff-caliber arm to pair with 2023 NL Cy Young award finalist Zac Gallen and veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly. Despite excellent performances from the club’s top two arms, who combined for a 3.39 ERA across 64 starts, the club’s overall rotation ranked just 21st in the majors last season with a 4.67 ERA. That’s thanks to a dearth of quality options behind Gallen and Kelly. Arizona relied on the likes of Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Zach Davies in the rotation for much of the year, each of whom posted ERAs north of 5.00 — though Pfaadt had a solid finish and was excellent during the postseason.

Adding Rodriguez to the mix should help the club’s run prevention efforts considerably. The 30-year-old southpaw enjoyed a career year in 2023 as a member of the Tigers, finishing the season with a 3.30 ERA and 3.66 FIP across 152 2/3 innings of work while striking out 23% of batters faced against a walk rate of just 7.7%. Those strong overall numbers on the season well may have been even stronger had Rodriguez managed to stay healthy all season, as the lefty cruised to a 2.13 ERA and a 25.5% strikeout rate across his first eleven starts of the season.

Unfortunately, Rodriguez subsequently suffered a ruptured pulley tendon at the end of May that wound up sidelining him for the entire month of June. Upon returning in early July, Rodriguez struggled to match his excellent first half performance. The southpaw delivered decent results, with a 4.24 ERA and 4.08 FIP over his final 85 frames, though his strikeout rate dipped to just 21.2% while his walk rate climbed to 8.9%. Fortunately, Rodriguez bounced back down the stretch to post a solid 3.60 ERA in September. Assuming the left-hander is fully healthy entering the 2024 campaign, he would be a strong addition to most any rotation in the majors.

Rodriguez’s strong platform campaign landed him the #11 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a four-year, $82MM deal. He’ll land right in that range, though Rodriguez managed to secure additional incentives that could raise the value of the contract further. While Rodriguez was the seventh-highest rated pitcher on our list, he actually edged out veteran right-hander and fifth-highest rated pitcher Sonny Gray’s total guarantee with the Cardinals by $5MM. That being said, Gray’s contract comes with a substantially higher AAV.

The Diamondbacks have shown a willingness to operate at this level of the rotation market in the past. Setting aside the six-year, $206.5MM megadeal the club signed Zack Greinke to prior to the 2016 season, the largest free agent contract the Diamondbacks have offered to a pitcher was a five-year, $85MM contract for left-hander Madison Bumgarner. That contract proved to be a disaster for Arizona, as Bumgarner posted a 5.23 ERA and 5.17 FIP across 69 starts for the Diamondbacks over the life of the contract before being released early in the 2023 campaign despite remaining on the books for the 2024 season.

The deal pushes Arizona’s payroll into uncharted territory, with RosterResource projecting the club’s 2024 payroll at $114MM prior to the addition of Rodriguez. Factoring in the club’s new addition, they Diamondbacks are on the hook for $134MM in salary commitments for the 2024 campaign, just barely edging out the club’s all-time high payroll of $131MM back in 2018 (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts). The Diamondbacks have made no public indications about their financial limits this offseason, so it’s unclear how much more room, if any, the club has to maneuver for future additions. If the club has more payroll space to work with, an additional rotation arm to shore up the back of the club’s rotation could make sense, as well as a right-handed hitter to slot in at DH. To that end, the club has recently been connected to Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Justin Turner, and J.D. Martinez, though it’s unclear if the club’s interest in the aforementioned starters remains following the signing of Rodriguez.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported that the D-backs were a finalist to sign Rodriguez. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides had agreed to a four-year deal worth around $20MM annually. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal broke the exact guarantee and value of the vesting option. Robert Murray of FanSided was first with the specific salary structure and vesting provisions.

Red Sox Rumors: Second Base, Rotation, Turner, Outfield

By Steve Adams | December 7, 2023 at 10:17am CDT

The Red Sox have a clear need at second base this winter, and as recently noted, newly installed chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated to reporters that he feels a trade is likelier than a free-agent signing. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic adds some more context from Breslow’s media session, noting that he called the “ideal” acquisition a right-handed bat and plus defender.

Second base was a black hole in the Boston lineup last year. Ten different players saw time there — Christian Arroyo, Enmanuel Valdez, Luis Urias and Pablo Reyes primarily — and combined for a .240/.286/.376 slash on the whole. Urias has since been traded to the Mariners. Arroyo was outrighted and became a free agent. Reyes and Valdez remain on the roster, but the former is a career .256/.318/.367 hitter who’s best suited for a utility role, while the latter has all of 149 MLB plate appearances to his name.

Veteran Whit Merrifield headlines the free-agent crop of second basemen, though bounceback candidates like Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier hold some appeal to clubs in search of help at second base as well. The trade market offers far more intriguing possibilities. The Reds have an enviable surplus of infield talent, and 2021 Rookie of the Year Jonathan India has been an oft-rumored candidate to change hands (though Cincinnati president Nick Krall downplayed the possibility recently). The Twins have their own glut of infield talent and are open to offers on veteran Jorge Polanco as they seek to reduce payroll and bolster the pitching staff. McCaffrey suggests that San Diego’s Ha-Seong Kim would be of interest if available, although that would presumably only be the case if the Padres continue to scale back payroll — and the prospect cost to acquire Kim would hardly be insignificant.

As one would expect for a newly hired baseball operations leader who’s trying to turn around a last-place team, Breslow has plenty of balls in the air at the moment. In addition to the pursuits at second base, Boston has also been active in the rotation market. Reports this week indicated they’re among the top suitors for Seth Lugo, and McCaffrey writes that the Sox were interested in Luis Severino before he signed with the Mets. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that the Sox had interest in a reunion with Eduardo Rodriguez but didn’t want to make a commitment with NPB newcomers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga both still in play via free agency. The Sox have interest in both.

Beyond the pitching staff, the Sox remain engaged with Justin Turner about a potential reunion, Breslow confirmed yesterday (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Turner declined a player option with Boston after hitting .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs in his first year with the team. That was a foregone conclusion, however, as the net $6.7MM value of that option (after factoring in the buyout he received) is well shy of what Turner can command in free agency, even at 39.

Breslow also suggested that he’d like to add a right-handed bat who can handle center field (via Abraham), though he stopped short of calling it a “need.” MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Breslow also implied the Sox could stand pat in the outfield and head into the 2024 season with the current group of Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela, though that’s obviously an inexperienced group and a further addition clearly hasn’t been ruled out. Boston was linked to right-handed-hitting outfielders Michael A. Taylor and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. this week, though only the former is an option in center field (and a very good one, at that).

Diamondbacks A Finalist For Eduardo Rodriguez

By Nick Deeds | December 6, 2023 at 7:15pm CDT

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that the Diamondbacks have had “advanced discussions” with left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. Morosi notes that no deal has been finalized to this point, but Arizona is considered a finalist for the southpaw. The report comes on the heels of news earlier today that Rodriguez had narrowed his possible destination down to two teams. A report from Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosencrans of The Athletic initially suggested that the other finalist for Rodriguez’s services was the Cincinnati Reds, though Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the Reds are not a finalist for Rodriguez’s services. Rosenthal and Rosencrans have since retracted the report.

For the reigning NL champions, Rodriguez would provide a third front-of-the-rotation caliber arm to pair with 2023 NL Cy Young award finalist Zac Gallen and veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly. Despite excellent performances from the club’s top two arms, who combined for a 3.39 ERA across 64 starts, the club’s overall rotation ranked just 21st in the majors last season with a 4.67 ERA. That’s thanks to a dearth of quality options behind Gallen and Kelly. Arizona relied on the likes of Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Zach Davies in the rotation for much of the year, each of whom posted ERAs north of 5.00.

Eduardo Rodriguez Narrows Decision To Two Teams

By Steve Adams | December 6, 2023 at 2:15pm CDT

Free agent left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez has been at the Winter Meetings in Nashville this week, where he’s held sitdowns with multiple interested clubs. It seems that slate of meetings will soon produce a deal, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Rodriguez has narrowed his possibilities to two teams and will decide between that pair of offers by tomorrow.

Beyond the fact that he’s known to have been in Nashville to meet with clubs, it’s been a relatively quiet offseason on the Rodriguez front. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported last month that any geographic preferences that may have been in place at the trade deadline are now out the window, as the left-hander has expressed an openness to pitching anywhere.

Logically speaking, teams that are deep into pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and/or Yoshinobu Yamamoto might not want to make a commitment of this size before either of those names comes off the board. That’s largely speculative, to be clear, although SNY’s Andy Martino reported this morning that the Mets haven’t even shown interest in Rodriguez at or prior to the Winter Meetings — largely for that specific reason; they’ve been focused squarely on Yamamoto to this point. That certainly seems to take them out of play as one of the two apparent finalists.

Rodriguez, 31 in April, opted out of the final three years and $49MM on his contract with the Tigers at the beginning of the offseason. There’s been no indication that a return is off the table, even after Detroit’s signing of veteran righty Kenta Maeda to a two-year contract. Tigers president of baseball ops Scott Harris was clear after that agreement that the Tigers remain in the market for starting pitching. Whether that includes putting forth a lengthier and larger commitment than the one from which Rodriguez just opted out isn’t clear, although it bears mentioning that Rodriguez was signed by Harris’ predecessor, Al Avila, and not the current Detroit front office regime.

The 2023 season was the second of a five-year, $77MM deal that had mixed results. Rodriguez was away from the Tigers for an extended period during year one of the contract, citing a marital issue, and posted a 4.05 ERA with diminished strikeout numbers when on the field. He bounced back early in 2023 and was one of the American League’s best pitchers for much of the first half. From April 12 through May 28, Rodriguez rattled off nine starts (57 1/3 innings) with a 1.40 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate.

A ruptured pulley tendon in his pitching hand sent Rodriguez to the injured list from late May through early July, and he wasn’t as sharp upon his return. The lefty improved as the summer wore on, but his 4.24 ERA in 85 innings post-injury list was decidedly less intriguing than his pre-injury output.

Overall, Rodriguez still finished out the season with 152 2/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball, adding in a 23% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate, 41% ground-ball rate and 0.88 HR/9. MLBTR ranked Rodriguez 11th on our annual Top 50 free agent rankings and predicted a four-year, $82MM deal for the veteran southpaw.

East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Rays

By Nick Deeds | December 2, 2023 at 6:04pm CDT

The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the National League, even as it represented a substantial improvement over the club’s 107-loss 2022 campaign. While the club has sat out the top of the free agent market during the recent seasons of their rebuild, it seems that may not be the case this offseason as the club looks to upgrade at the infield corners and at DH, per TalkNats. The club has already been linked to a reunion with third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who was posting career-best numbers with the Nats prior to being dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. The report suggests that the club has interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfield/DH slugger Jorge Soler in addition to Candelario. The report goes on to indicate that Washington has been “very active” in the starting pitching market to this point in the offseason, though it does not connect any specific names to the club.

The rumored targets make sense for the Nationals. The club has a major hole at third base given that former top prospect Carter Kieboom has failed to establish himself the big league level. Kieboom’s .207/.266/.368 slash line (70 wRC+) in 2023 was largely in line with his career numbers of .199/.297/.301 (65 wRC+), and Candelario or another third base addition would almost certainly represent a significant upgrade over the 26-year-old. Meanwhile, an addition at first base or DH could help the club improve an offense that currently figures to use journeyman Joey Meneses at one position without an established starter at the other.

As for the rotation, the club has several interesting young arms such as Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore that they figure to prioritize developing, with veterans such as Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams who can reliably eat innings. That being said, the Nationals’ starting staff posted a combined 5.02 ERA last season, the sixth-worst figure in the majors. What’s more, the club’s 5.30 FIP in the rotation was better than only the lowly Rockies, while their starting staff combined for just 4.9 fWAR, better than only Colorado and Oakland. That leaves plenty of room for improvement if the club decides to add even a lower-level free agent such as Matthew Boyd or Frankie Montas to its rotation, to say nothing of a more impactful addition.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

While the Mets have reportedly shifted their focus away from superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the club is still looking at potential impact additions this offseason. They’ve long been connected to top-of-the-market arm Yoshinobu Yamamoto as they explore potential rotation upgrades, and Heyman adds that the Mets are looking into “nearly every available frontline starter” in addition to Yamamoto, including southpaws Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While Heyman notes the club is unlikely to land a rental arm such as Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber on the trade market, he does suggest the club’s interest in rotation upgrades extends to White Sox starter Dylan Cease, who is under team control for the next two seasons and has seen plenty of trade buzz this offseason. Rotation upgrades make plenty of sense for New York after the club shipped out veteran aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline over the summer, leaving Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and newly-signed righty Luis Severino as the club’s only rotation locks entering 2024.
The Rays have interest in a reunion with right-hander Cooper Criswell even after non-tendering him last month, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Criswell, 27, made his big league debut as a member of the Angels in 2021 with a one-game cup of coffee that lasted just 1 1/3 innings. He spent the past two seasons as a member of the Rays, with a 5.45 ERA and 5.00 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work across 11 appearances. While those numbers are certainly nothing to write home about, Criswell’s ability to go multiple innings and 46.8% career groundball rate at the big league level could make him a worthwhile depth addition for a Rays club that relied on 40 different pitchers throughout the 2023 campaign.

Tigers Notes: Rodriguez, Mize, Maton, Baddoo

By Anthony Franco | November 7, 2023 at 7:11pm CDT

The Tigers face the potential loss of Eduardo Rodriguez, who officially opted out of his contract on Saturday. The move was entirely unsurprising with the left-hander in good position to land a much better deal than the three years and $49MM that remained.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted shortly before Rodriguez opted out that his camp had continued discussions with the Tigers about potentially reworking his contract. At this week’s GM Meetings, Detroit president of baseball operations Scott Harris confirmed that report but seemed to downplay the chance of re-signing Rodriguez now that he has reached free agency.

The Tigers’ front office leader told reporters the club’s valuation of the pitcher is “locked in” after two seasons in the Motor City (relayed by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). Asked whether the team would stay in contact with Rodriguez’s camp, Harris referenced rules prohibiting him from commenting on specific free agents before adding he “can wish him the best of luck in free agency.”

Should Rodriguez sign elsewhere, it stands to reason the Tigers would bring in a starter from outside the organization. Tarik Skubal looked like a top-flight starter when he returned from flexor surgery, but the rest of the rotation has a relatively brief track record at the MLB level. Reese Olson and Sawyer Gipson-Long showed promise as rookies. Matt Manning pitched to a 3.58 ERA but was limited to 15 starts by separate foot fractures. Former first overall pick Casey Mize missed the entire 2023 season recovering from June ’22 Tommy John surgery.

Detroit announced this evening that Mize has been throwing bullpen sessions without issue and is expected to have a normal offseason. The same can’t be said for infielder Nick Maton, who recently underwent an arthroscopic procedure to address a left knee problem. The Tigers haven’t indicated whether the issue could linger into Spring Training, noting only that Maton is currently in post-operation rehab. Acquired from the Phillies in last offseason’s Gregory Soto deal, the left-handed hitter ran a .173/.288/.305 line over 93 games during his first season as a Tiger.

In one other piece of roster news, Harris addressed the future of corner outfielder Akil Baddoo. The former Rule 5 draftee seemed a potential non-tender candidate, particularly after the club brought in Mark Canha to join Riley Greene and Parker Meadows in the outfield mix. Harris implied that Baddoo would be tendered a contract, telling the media (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that the outfielder “still very much fits in” their plans. Baddoo, who hit .218/.310/.372 this past season, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.7MM salary as a Super Two qualifier.

Eduardo Rodriguez Opts Out Of Tigers Contract

By Mark Polishuk | November 4, 2023 at 12:57pm CDT

Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez is returning to free agency, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman (X link) reports that Rodriguez has opted out of the last three years and $49MM on his contract with the Tigers.

Today was the deadline for E-Rod to enact his opt-out clause, and it has long seemed like the southpaw would indeed take the opportunity to again test the market. Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said in early October that the club was first waiting on Rodriguez’s opt-out decision before discussing an extension, yet MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported yesterday that the two sides were having some level of talks “about potentially restructuring his contract.”

The nature of these discussions might not be known now that Rodriguez has opted out, though the Tigers still hold exclusive negotiating rights with the lefty until Monday. It would seem like a longshot if a new deal did come together with Rodriguez so close to being able to speak with other teams, yet he did express his love of playing in Detroit in August after E-Rod used his 10-team no-trade clause to reject a proposed deal to the Dodgers.

Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77MM deal during the 2021-22 offseason, as the Tigers splurged on both E-Rod and Javier Baez as a way of signalling that the team was ready to contend after a rebuilding period. Instead, the Tigers stumbled to a 66-96 record in 2022, due to a punchless offense and a multitude of pitching injuries. Rodriguez was hit by the injury bug in the form of a ribcage sprain, but his extended absence during the middle of the 2022 campaign was due to a family-related personal matter. The Tigers put Rodriguez on the restricted list for most of that absence, and he ended up tossing only 91 innings (with a 4.05 ERA).

A pulley rupture in his left index finger put E-Rod on the injured list for a little over five weeks this season, but by and large, 2023 was a more normal year for the left-hander. Rodriguez posted a 3.30 ERA over 152 2/3 innings, with a less-flattering 4.26 SIERA and a set of Statcast metrics that generally landed either slightly above or slightly below league averages.

It makes for an interesting comparison to Rodriguez’s last foray into free agency, when he landed that $77MM deal on the strength of some good underlying metrics, even though he had a 4.74 ERA over 157 2/3 frames for the Red Sox in 2021. Without a qualifying offer impacting his market this time around, Rodriguez shouldn’t have much issue topping three years and $49MM, and another five-year pact seems very plausible since he doesn’t turn 31 until April.

However, geography might be a bit of a limiting factor for Rodriguez. Staying close to his family on the East Coast was reportedly a reason E-Rod vetoed the trade to the Dodgers, so if he wasn’t willing to head west for just the remainder of the 2023 season, it’s probably not too likely that he’d join a team in the western U.S. for a longer term. These feelings could potentially change once Rodriguez and his representatives fully gauge the market, yet for now, it would appear as though clubs in the east or more central (like Detroit) parts of the baseball world might have an advantage.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

By Darragh McDonald | October 30, 2023 at 7:27pm CDT

The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

Sonny Gray (Twins)
Josh Hader (Padres)
Aaron Nola (Phillies)
Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
Blake Snell (Padres)

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Seth Lugo (Padres)

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Kenta Maeda (Twins)

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Michael Wacha (Padres)

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Frankie Montas (Yankees)

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

Jack Flaherty (Orioles)
Lucas Giolito (Guardians)
Shota Imanaga (Yokohama DeNA BayStars, NPB)
Jordan Montgomery (Rangers)
Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers)
Marcus Stroman (Cubs)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Orix Buffaloes, NPB)

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

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