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Twins Rumors: Lewis, Santana, Paddack

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The Twins are contemplating a full-time move to second base for young infielder Royce Lewis, writes Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Minnesota briefly experimented with Lewis shifting from third base to second base late in the season, but a more permanent move is under consideration. Making the shift at the beginning of a season, when Lewis has an entire spring training exhibition schedule to acclimate to his new defensive environs, would presumably benefit the 25-year-old slugger as opposed to last year’s on-the-fly look, when Lewis logged only eight innings at the position.

Lewis is just one piece of a crowded infield puzzle in Minnesota. The former No. 1 overall pick and top prospect has been playing third base in deference to Carlos Correa but was drafted as a shortstop. From the time he was drafted in 2017, some scouts have questioned whether he’d stick at shortstop or move to third base, second base or perhaps center field. A pair of ACL tears in the same knee in consecutive seasons has probably impacted that decision for the organization as well.

In addition to Lewis and Correa, the Twins will be looking to juggle playing time between top prospect Brooks Lee (the No. 8 overall pick in 2022), Edouard Julien (who posted terrific rookie numbers in ’23 before struggling in ’24), Jose Miranda (who rebounded nicely from a 2023 season ruined by shoulder surgery) and utilityman Willi Castro (.251/.334/.395 with 21 homers, 47 steals in 282 games with the Twins).

Carlos Santana’s potential departure in free agency and the surprising retirement of injury-plagued former top prospect Alex Kirilloff opens some at-bats at first base, which could be handled by Julien and/or Miranda. Lee, considered a better defender at third base than Lewis, would presumably be in line for the bulk of the playing time at the hot corner if he makes the roster. Lee missed considerable time with injury and struggled in his first taste of the big leagues last year, however, so if he opens the season in Triple-A, that’d leave Miranda and Julien to share the corners early in the season, with Castro (who has extensive outfield experience as well) mixing in all over the field. The Twins also have fast-rising prospect Luke Keaschall to consider; the 2023 second-rounder has played second, third, first and center field in the minors and currently ranks 39th on Baseball America’s ranking of the game’s top 100 prospects.

One option the Twins could explore, of course, is a reunion with Santana. The 39-year-old switch-hitter is aiming to play at least three or four more seasons and by all accounts quite enjoyed his time in Minnesota. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently told the Twins beat that he’s not ruling out the possibility, even if it would “create some other changes that we have to consider on the roster” (link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). Santana hit .238/.328/.420 with 23 home runs and won a Gold Glove at first base in 2024 after signing a one-year, $5.25MM deal in Minnesota.

It’s possible that the glut of infield talent could lead a trade of some variety this offseason, though given the team’s payroll situation, trades of veterans on somewhat notable salaries are considered likelier. That could include Castro, who’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $6.2MM in his final season of club control, but there are other areas where the Twins have notable salaries they could shed. Catcher Christian Vazquez and his $10MM salary are one option, and Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune wrote recently that there’s an expectation that righty Chris Paddack will also garner some calls this winter. (We ranked Paddack 16th on our list of MLB’s top trade candidates heading into the offseason.)

Paddack, 29 in January, is signed through the 2025 season and will earn a $7.5MM salary next year. He returned for his first full season following a second career Tommy John surgery in 2024 and pitched 88 1/3 innings with a 4.99 ERA. That’s not a flattering number, but a substantial portion of the damage against Paddack came in one nightmare outing where he yielded nine runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Orioles in April. From that point forth, he posted a 4.38 ERA with a solid 22.3% strikeout rate and excellent 5.1% walk rate. He spent the final two months of the season on the injured list due to a forearm strain.

A former top prospect who looked on the cusp of stardom after a dominant rookie season when he gave the Padres 140 2/3 of 3.33 ERA ball with plus strikeout and walk rates, Paddack is still something of a project even as he approaches his 29th birthday. That said, he’s younger than most free agent pitchers and paid roughly in line with what might be expected of an older reclamation project. For instance, Alex Wood ($8.5MM), Wade Miley ($8.5MM) and James Paxton ($7MM) all signed one-year deals in this range coming off injury-shortened seasons of their own last winter.

Paddack’s deal may not be teeming with surplus value, but the Twins also might not need to eat any money in a trade. Dealing him would thin out the team’s rotation supply, but the Twins could still pursue some more cost-effective depth arms to complement Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and top prospects David Festa and Zebby Matthews, both of whom made their MLB debuts in 2024 (each struggling to varying extents). Prospects Marco Raya and Andrew Morris are also on the near-term horizon.

Twins Place Byron Buxton On Injured List

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5:55pm: The Twins have now made it official, placing Buxton on the IL with right hip inflammation, retroactive to August 13. Julien was recalled as the corresponding move. They also optioned right-hander Louie Varland and recalled righty Ronny Henriquez.

4:20pm: Twins outfielder Byron Buxton has been dealing with a hip injury in recent days. Per Dan Hayes of The Athletic on X, there’s no structural damage but the club is going to place him on the 10-day injured list anyway. Hayes adds that infielder Edouard Julien is on his way to join the team, presumably as the corresponding move.

Buxton hasn’t played for Minnesota since Monday. He departed that game with right hip discomfort. He was sent for an MRI but it came back clean, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic on X. However, he has been kept out of the lineup due to ongoing discomfort and the club has been considering an IL stint just to avoid playing a man short, which will seemingly come to pass today.

It’s a fairly logical decision to make. The club is in a tight playoff race, currently holding the second Wild Card spot in the American League but with the Royals, Red Sox and Mariners all fairly close behind. Since Buxton has already missed a few days, his IL placement can be backdated, meaning he could theoretically be back by next weekend if he heals up between now and then. Rather than play shorthanded for a few days, the club can get reinforcements while giving Buxton a breather.

Buxton’s health has been an ongoing issue throughout his career, so it makes sense to play things on the cautious side. Although this is his tenth major league season, he has only once played more than 92 games in any individual campaign due to various maladies. Last year, the club limited him to designated hitter duties exclusively, but he still only got into 85 contests.

The knee issues that plagued him last year seem to be less of an issue this season. He did miss a couple of weeks in May with right knee inflammation but has otherwise been in the lineup. He has appeared in 90 games so far this year, taking his customary center field position in 82 of those. He’s also been incredibly impactful, as he’s hit 16 home runs and is slashing .275/.334/.528 for a 140 wRC+. He’s also swiped six bags and has received strong grades for his glovework, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 3.2 wins above replacement on the year.

Losing that production for a while will obviously be less than ideal for the Twins in the short term, but it will be worth it in the long term if Buxton can heal up and be back in form for the playoff race and the postseason itself.

Until then, the club will likely be using Manuel Margot and Austin Martin to cover center, with Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner also in the outfield/designated hitter mix. Martin has also been playing some second base this year, so Julien will give them an extra option there while Martin spends more time on the grass. Kyle Farmer is also on hand as a glove-first option at the keystone, compared to Julien’s more bat-first profile. With Carlos Correa and Brooks Lee also on the IL, Willi Castro is covering shortstop every day as Royce Lewis and José Miranda share third base and DH duties.

Twins Place Carlos Correa, Chris Paddack On Injured List

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The Twins announced this afternoon that they’ve placed shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Chris Paddack on the injured list. Correa heads to the 10-day IL due to right plantar fasciitis, retroactive to July 16. Paddack, meanwhile is heading to the 15-day IL (retroactive to July 17) with a right forearm strain. In corresponding moves, second baseman Edouard Julien has been recalled from Triple-A, while utility bat Austin Martin has been activated from the IL.

That Correa is dealing with a bout of plantar fasciitis in his right foot isn’t news, as it was announced prior to the All-Star Break that the shortstop would not participate in the All-Star game due to the issue. It seems he’ll need additional time to rest his ailing foot, however, as he’s now shelved until at least July 26. Plantar fasciitis is generally considered to be a matter of pain tolerance, so it’s unlikely that Correa will remain shelved until it’s fully healed. Even so, it’s not necessarily a surprise that he and the Twins are taking the issue seriously given his struggles while playing through the issue in his left foot last year. While Correa played in 135 games last year, he posted a below-average 96 wRC+ while defensive metrics suggested that his typically excellent defense at shortstop slipped.

That decline in performance while playing through the injury clearly suggested to the Twins and Correa that it would be best for everyone if he took additional time to rest his ailing foot before returning to the lineup, though it’s worth noting that manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) that Correa’s absence isn’t expected to require “several weeks to a month,” with the club anticipating his return sooner than that. For now, however, Correa has received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his foot and will look to recover while Gleeman relays that Willi Castro will get the majority of reps at shortstop in his absence.

With Castro handling shortstop on a regular basis and Brooks Lee covering for the injured Royce Lewis at third base, the Twins are calling on Julien to take back over at the keystone. The 25-year-old posted a pedestrian 97 wRC+ in his sophomore season across 58 games before being optioned down to the minors, where he has subsequently impressed with a 114 wRC+ and an eye-popping 21.2% walk rate. Julien will be joined by Martin, who can provide a right-handed complement to him at second base while also backing up the club’s outfield mix.

As for Paddack, the right-hander’s first full season back from his second Tommy John surgery has been a difficult one. He’s battled injury issues to make 17 starts this season, although even when healthy enough to take the mound he’s struggled to a 4.99 ERA despite solid peripherals such as a 4.19 FIP and a 4.09 SIERA. In spite of those peripherals, however, Paddack’s performance has seen him strike out a career-low 20.6% of batters faced while generating less grounders than ever before, a clip of just 37.3%. While forearm issues are somewhat alarming for a pitcher who has already gone under the knife for Tommy John surgery twice, Baldelli suggested to reporters (including Gleeman) that the club isn’t particularly concerned, believing that the problem is a muscle strain that will heal up with rest.

Even if Paddack is back in action in relatively short order, however, the news only exacerbates Minnesota’s obvious need for help in the starting rotation. While Joe Ryan has impressed as a front-of-the-rotation option and Bailey Ober’s typical mid-rotation production is as steady as ever, Pablo Lopez has surprisingly struggled after entering the season as the club’s ace following the departure of Sonny Gray over the winter while Louie Varland struggled enough in the fifth starter role to be demoted to Triple-A. Simeon Woods-Richardson has done well in Varland’s place, but with the likes of Varland and rookie Dave Festa as the best options to step into Paddack’s rotation spot, it’s easy to see why the Twins are reportedly looking into rental starters ahead of the July 30 trade deadline.

Twins Option Edouard Julien; Royce Lewis Expected To Return Tuesday

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The Twins have optioned second baseman Edouard Julien to Triple-A St. Paul, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported last night that the move was likely on the horizon, as the Twins need to clear roster space for the return of infielder Royce Lewis, who’s expected to join the team tomorrow for their series opener against the Yankees.

Julien, 25, graduated from top prospect status to the Twins’ apparent everyday second baseman last year when he hit .263/.381/.459 with 16 homers in 408 plate appearances as a rookie. Minnesota felt comfortable enough with the Canadian-born slugger at second base that they traded stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco to the Mariners this offseason when looking for ways to pare back the payroll.

Julien hit .223/.330/.500 with seven homers through the end of April, but he’s since fallen into a slump that’s seen him post a bleak .169/.274/.181 slash over a span of 95 trips to the plate. He’s still walking at a hefty 12.6% clip but has also fanned at a 38% rate during that slump (and in 34% of his plate appearances on the season overall). Julien’s extremely patient approach has helped him walk in nearly 15% of his MLB plate appearances, but that patience can border on passivity as well. Jonathan India is the only qualified hitter in baseball who’s swung at fewer pitches than Julien’s 37%.

The monthlong slump will make Julien the roster casualty for the return of Lewis, who’s been Minnesota’s best hitter when healthy dating back to his 2022 debut. Injuries have marred Lewis’ career to date — he’s twice torn his right ACL and has been out since Opening Day due to a quad strain — but the 2017 No. 1 overall draft pick is a .313/.369/.564 hitter (159 wRC+) in 282 MLB plate appearances. He also swatted four homers in 26 postseason playoff appearances last year (in addition to homering in his first at-bat of the 2024 regular season).

With Lewis reclaiming the regular third base job and Julien headed to St. Paul, the Twins’ infield will take on a different look. Jose Miranda has been the team’s primary third baseman and, after a lost 2023 season, has reemerged as a key contributor. The 25-year-old Miranda (26 later this month) is another former Twins top prospect who impressed as a rookie in 2022, popping 15 homers and batting .268/.325/.426 in 483 plate appearances. He tried to play through a shoulder impingement that eventually required surgery last season, hitting just .211/.263/.303 in 40 big league games.

Now that his shoulder is back at full strength, Miranda looks like his old self. He’s taken 151 turns at the plate and delivered a quite-productive .280/.311/.469 slash with six homers and nine doubles. Miranda doesn’t walk much (3.3% this season, 5.3% career) but puts the ball in play at a very high rate (14.6% strikeout rate this year, 17.4% career) and has plenty of extra-base pop. Though he played some second base in the minors, it doesn’t seem likely he’ll do so at this point. He’ll rotate between the infield corners and designated hitter, but utilityman Willi Castro figures to pick up the bulk of playing time at second base. The switch-hitting Castro is out to a .260/.335/.420 start and has experience playing all over the diamond.

The Twins could’ve made a more aggressive roster decision, cutting ties with a struggling veteran instead. But Carlos Santana has rebounded from an awful start to bat .253/.340/.434 over the past 30 days. Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot both have ugly numbers on the whole, but as Hayes notes, Margot is hitting left-handers fairly well and Farmer is valued both for his defensive versatility and his leadership in the clubhouse. Optioning Julien also preserves depth in a way that parting with someone like Farmer or Margot would not; both players could reject outright assignments to the minors in favor of free agency.

The Twins’ infield crunch falls into the “good problem to have” bucket of cliches. Julien’s demotion certainly doesn’t change the organization’s view that he can be a valuable long-term contributor, but he’ll head to Triple-A for what’s likely to be a relatively short-term reset. Presumably, in the event of an injury in the infield or at just about any non-catcher spot among the team’s position-player corps, Julien would be the first man back up. (Castro could slide right back into a super-utility role or into an everyday outfield role.)

From a service time vantage point, Julien’s slump could potentially cost him, however. He entered the season with 135 days of MLB service. Had he stayed in the majors for good, he’d have been a slam-dunk Super Two player following the 2025 season. It’s still possible he reaches that designation but is now far from a sure thing. Julien has already reached one full year of MLB service, so this assignment won’t impact his timeline to free agency, but it could potentially cost him a fourth trip through the arbitration process.

Gunnar Henderson Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has won Rookie of the Year for the American League, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians placed second while Triston Casas of the Red Sox placed third.

Henderson got to make his major league debut last year as a September call-up, just a couple of months after his 21st birthday. Despite his young age, he held himself incredibly well. His 25.8% strikeout rate was a bit above average, but he also drew walks at a 12.1% clip. His .259/.348/.440 batting line last year resulted in a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% above league average in that time. That call-up gave him a chance to get a taste of the majors while maintaining rookie status, since he didn’t get to 130 at-bat or 45 days on the roster.

The O’s came into 2023 looking to firmly stamp out their rebuild and make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Henderson’s first full season helped them do just that, as he hit 28 home runs and stole 10 bases. His walk rate dipped to 9%, though that was still above league average. His .259/.348/.440 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 123. He split his time between shortstop and third base, getting strong grades at both positions. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.6 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 6.2. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 101 games and took the top spot in the American League East.

The award is surely gratifying for Henderson and the O’s in and of itself, but there are other implications of this news. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Henderson, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #1 prospect on all three of those lists.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Henderson did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the O’s, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Bibee and Casas also had strong seasons, but not enough to catch Henderson. The former made 25 starts for the Guards with a 2.98 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He wasn’t promoted until late April but will earn a full service year by getting second place in this voting. But since he didn’t get that service year the traditional way, the Guards won’t get a bonus draft pick. Casas hit 24 home runs and walked in 13.9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .263/.367/.490 batting line and 129 wRC+. He was in the majors all year, so the voting won’t impact him from a service time perspective, but he falls just shy of getting the Red Sox a bonus pick.

Henderson was a unanimous selection, per the full vote tally from the BBWAA, getting all 30 first-place votes. Bibee got 20 of the second-place votes while Casas got six. Other players receiving votes were Josh Jung of the Rangers, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, Edouard Julien of the Twins and Anthony Volpe of the Yankees.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Could Pursue First Base Addition

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The Twins snapped the longest postseason losing streak in North American sports this year when they swept the Blue Jays out of the Wild Card round before falling 3-1 in an ALDS loss to the Astros. They’ll head into the offseason facing the potential loss of Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray, but there are also other areas of need on the roster. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey indicated to Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that his club could also be in the market for an addition to their first base mix.

“With [Alex Kirilloff] and with potential external additions, it’ll probably be an area we do spend some time this offseason from free agent or trade perspective,” Falvey said of his team’s first base outlook.

Kirilloff, a longtime top prospect whose career trajectory has been altered by persistent wrist and shoulder injuries, served as the Twins’ primary first baseman when healthy in 2023. Free agents Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo also logged significant time at first base. There’s yet to be any indication the Twins plan to re-sign either. Gallo, in particular, seems likely to depart.

The 26-year-old Kirilloff turned in a very sound .270/.348/.445 batting line with 11 home runs in 319 plate appearances, but he also had multiple shoulder-related IL stints before ultimately undergoing surgery at season’s end. That procedure, Nightengale writes, was actually less invasive than the Twins originally anticipated, and he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

That said, it’s hard to bank on Kirilloff assuming the position on a full-time basis next year. The Twins thought highly enough of the former first-round pick to give him his MLB debut during the 2020 postseason, and he’s now spent parts of three seasons on the MLB roster. However, this past campaign’s 88 games and 319 plate appearances are both career-highs. Kirilloff’s 2021 and 2022 seasons ended with wrist surgery.

There’s little doubting Kirilloff’s raw abilities. He was the 15th overall draft pick in 2016 and hit a combined .324/.381/.525 in the minors — including a gaudy .366/.458/.673 in 53 Triple-A games. Prior to his MLB debut, he peaked as the game’s No. 15 overall prospect at Baseball America and climbed as high as ninth on MLB.com’s top 100 rankings. Even with the past wrist issues and ongoing shoulder troubles in ’23, he was a well above-average hitter. But his ability to remain on the field and the extent to which he can recover from a third notable surgery in three years are both open questions.

The Twins have alternatives at the position. Rookie infielder Edouard Julien, a top-100 prospect in his own right, hit the big league scene with a .263/.381/.459 batting line and 16 home runs as a rookie in 408 plate appearances this season. He’s primarily been a second baseman, but there are questions about his ability to handle that spot long term and Julien already logged some time at first base. With Jorge Polanco entrenched at second base, slotting Julien in at first base and designated hitter could get his bat into the lineup more regularly. Of course, the Twins’ wealth of young infield talent makes Polanco an obvious trade candidate, and if he’s moved, that’d clear a spot for Julien at second base and Kirilloff and/or an external acquisition at first base.

Also in the mix is Jose Miranda — yet another former top prospect who broke through with a terrific rookie showing in 2022 before regressing in 2023 and eventually requiring a shoulder surgery of his own. Miranda batted .268/.325/.426 with 15 home runs in 125 games as a rookie in ’22 but limped to a .211/.263/.303 line in 40 big league games this past season. His work in Triple-A wasn’t any better, and he wound up being diagnosed with a shoulder impingement that resulted in September surgery. Still just 25 years of age, a healthy Miranda could work his way back into the mix as well.

Suffice it to say, the Twins aren’t short on in-house options. The looming possibility of a Polanco trade (thus opening second base for Julien), uncertainty surrounding the health/durability of Kirilloff and Miranda, and the hopeful opening of some at-bats at the designated hitter position could all pave the way for Minnesota to bring in a bat, though. Byron Buxton spent the bulk of the 2023 season as a designated hitter due to lingering complications from last winter’s knee surgery, but the Twins are optimistic that he’ll be able to return to center field in 2024, per Falvey. That’d be a boon both offensively and defensively, if he’s able to do so.

The offseason market at first base isn’t exactly deep in terms of star power, though Rhys Hoskins stands as a prominent name on the open market (assuming his own recovery from a torn ACL progresses as expected). Brandon Belt is also available, though he’s a strict platoon option and bats from the same side of the plate as the left-handed Kirilloff. Buy-low options include Garrett Cooper and old friend C.J. Cron. Pete Alonso’s name has been kicked around the trade market, but Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said this week that he does not anticipate trading the star slugger (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic).

The Twins are expected to reduce payroll this coming season, albeit not drastically so. Revenue losses stemming from the collapse of their television deal under Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy create uncertainty in Minnesota, where Roster Resource currently projects them for a $125MM payroll. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the team’s payroll would likely settle between $125-140MM. Trading Polanco ($10.5MM), Max Kepler ($10MM) and/or Christian Vazquez ($10MM) would create some breathing room, as could a trade or non-tender of utility infielder Kyle Farmer (projected $6.6MM arbitration salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

Twins Notes: Correa, Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Buxton

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Carlos Correa was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis and a muscle strain in his left foot back in late May. The Twins shortstop has played through the issue, avoiding the injured list all season.

It hasn’t been a banner year for the two-time All-Star, whose .226/.309/.398 line through 511 plate appearances is among the worst of his career. It’s not hard to connect the dots, as Correa has spoken about playing through continued discomfort on a few occasions.

Correa expanded on the injury in a recent chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The 28-year-old called it the most painful issue through which he’s played in his career. Correa rather candidly told Rosenthal he “probably would have sat out more time to let it heal” were he an impending free agent but indicated he feels the team needs him to remain as a steadying presence on the active roster — even if his production is below his typical level.

Skipper Rocco Baldelli has pencilled Correa in at shortstop for 117 of Minnesota’s 132 games. He’s logged over 1000 innings, rating as a marginally above-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. Public metrics have loved Correa’s glove in previous seasons, none more so than in 2021 when he rated anywhere nine and 20 runs above average by measure of OAA and DRS en route to a Platinum Glove award. It stands to reason the foot injury is also playing a role in limiting his mobility on that side of the ball, as Correa’s sprint speed is at a personal-low level.

Perhaps the Twins’ place in the standings will enable them to sprinkle in a few more rest days. Minnesotas optioned starter Bailey Ober to Triple-A this evening in a move that seems largely motivated by a desire to keep an eye on his personal-high innings total. After beating the Guardians tonight, the Twins hold a seven-game margin in the AL Central. While the division isn’t quite sewn up, it’s possible they’ll be in position to ease off a lot of their regulars by the second half of September to keep players fresh headed into the postseason.

While the weakness of the division is a big reason for Minnesota’s comfortable place in the standings, the Twins have also simply played well of late. They’re 24-17 in the second half and have matched their season high by pulling six games above .500 at 69-63. As Aaron Gleeman writes for The Athletic, the Twins’ strong rookie core has played a big role in that success.

Minnesota has received well above-average play from each of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. None of that trio began the season on the active roster. Lewis started on the injured list rehabbing from a second straight year with a torn ACL. Julien and Wallner opened the year in Triple-A. They’re now all healthy and playing regular roles thanks to their strong performances.

Lewis has secured the third base job, which had been up for grabs after José Miranda struggled early on. The former first overall pick is up to a .317/.366/.521 line through 153 plate appearances after tonight’s game, in which he hit a grand slam off Cleveland righty Xzavion Curry. Lewis had connected on a grand slam in yesterday’s extra-inning win over Texas as well, becoming the first player in franchise history to hit one in consecutive contests.

Julien is working as the primary designated hitter. The lefty-hitting infielder had manned second base while Jorge Polanco was on the shelf. While he struggled defensively, he’s been an excellent offensive player, putting together a .285/.378/.478 line in 292 trips to the plate. Wallner, meanwhile, has grabbed the left field corner opposite Max Kepler with 10 homers, six doubles and a triple through 156 plate appearances. That has pushed the struggling Joey Gallo into a platoon center field role alongside Michael A. Taylor.

Minnesota could soon welcome Byron Buxton back into the outfield rotation. The Twins had limited the Gold Glove winner to designated hitter early in the season in an effort to keep him healthy. Buxton nevertheless landed on the injured list with a hamstring strain a few weeks ago, but he doesn’t seem far off a return. He went through an on-field workout today and could soon head on a minor league rehab stint, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. The Twins are expected to give Buxton center field reps on that assignment as they evaluate his readiness to handle defensive work for the final few weeks.

The Twins’ Breakout Rookie

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The Twins have rattled off five consecutive wins, pushing themselves a season-high six games above .500. Paired with the Guardians dropping eight of their last 10, Minnesota has stretched their lead in the AL Central to 5.5 games. All of a sudden, only the Braves have a larger cushion at the top of a division.

That’s somewhat a reflection of an otherwise dismal AL Central, of course. Yet Minnesota has a 19-12 record since the start of June and the sixth-best run differential overall (+53) among American League clubs. They’re playing like a legitimate playoff team.

Among the reasons for Minnesota’s improved production of late: a somewhat quiet building case for Rookie of the Year consideration. Edouard Julien owns a .299/.389/.512 batting line through his first 235 plate appearances. Among the 43 first-year players with 200+ trips to the dish, none is reaching base at a higher clip. Only Corbin Carroll, Matt McLain, Yainer Diaz and Luke Raley have a better slugging mark.

Julien has only played 65 games, roughly three-fifths of the action logged by the likes of Josh Jung and Gunnar Henderson. He’d be behind that duo in Rookie of the Year consideration if the season ended today. There’s a chance for Julien to close that gap in the season’s final couple months (particularly with Jung set to miss six weeks thanks to a thumb fracture that’ll require surgery).

Award consideration aside, the more meaningful development is the introduction of a middle-of-the-order caliber bat into Minnesota’s lineup. That didn’t come out of nowhere. The lefty-swinging Julien had been regarded as one of the more talented offensive players in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut. There’s some amount of uncertainty with any prospect before they get exposure to big league pitching, though, and Julien has only 38 games of Triple-A experience under his belt.

The 24-year-old hasn’t had any issues against MLB pitching thus far. His results in the minors had been built on power and an extremely patient plate approach. He’s showing the same profile at the MLB level. Julien almost never chases pitches off the plate; his 18.9% swing rate on offerings outside the strike zone is lowest among all MLB hitters with 200+ plate appearances. Julien is swinging at pitches within the zone at a roughly average clip. That’s generally the approach one would want to see from a hitter, particularly a rookie — patient without getting too passive.

Julien’s comfort working deep counts is naturally going to come with a fair number of strikeouts. There’s also just some swing-and-miss in his game; he’s made contact on 72.2% of his swings, roughly four percentage points below the 76.4% league average. Julien will probably strike out too often to be a .300 hitter. His .410 average on balls in play is bound for some regression.

There’s no need for Julien to run a near-.300 average to be a productive player, though. He’s going to work plenty of walks to keep his OBP floor high. Prospect evaluators have credited him with above-average to plus power potential. Julien has shown that at the MLB level, connecting on 10 homers with a quality 42.9% hard contact percentage.

The remaining concern in Julien’s offensive profile is probably his limited track record against same-handed pitching. The Twins have shielded him against southpaws, keeping him to 29 MLB plate appearances thus far. In 2022, he had marked platoon splits in Double-A. Julien hit .332/.465/.566 against righties in the minors last season compared to a .210/.373/.276 showing versus left-handers.

For now, the Twins are happy with a rookie who’s mashing right-handed pitching. The Twins have struggled as a team against southpaws, but they have Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and switch-hitting Willi Castro on hand as righty-capable infielders who can take some pressure off Julien in the short term.

Moving forward, the bigger question is where Julien fits best defensively. Scouting reports have long pegged him as a well below-average defender at second base, where he’s spent the majority of his professional career. Public metrics have panned his work over his first 366 MLB innings at the keystone.

The Twins have lived with the subpar middle infield glove to inject more life into the offense. Julien’s two promotions have been in response to injuries to Jorge Polanco. The latter is now healthy, but the Twins reshuffled their infield to keep Julien in the lineup. Polanco has started four times at third base since being reinstated from the IL on July 28, his first work at the hot corner in seven years.

Whether Minnesota feels that’s a long-term option remains to be seen. The Twins could welcome Royce Lewis back from an oblique strain within the next couple weeks. The former first overall pick has battled myriad injury issues throughout his career but been a productive player whenever healthy. Lewis is probably ticketed for regular run at the hot corner when he returns. That could push Polanco back to the keystone and perhaps move Julien into a primary designated hitter capacity.

That’d enable Minnesota to cut into the playing time of Joey Gallo, who is hitting .156/.276/.349 since an excellent first month. Beyond this season, Julien’s emergence figures to only raise more questions about the possibility of subtracting a left-handed bat to add more lineup balance. Gallo’s impending free agency will remove one player from the group, while the club will have a net $9MM option decision on Max Kepler.

If they’re comfortable with Julien as a tolerable (if fringy) defender at second base, that could lead to an interesting question on Polanco’s future. Minnesota can bring the veteran infielder back on a $10.5MM option. That’s solid value — before this year’s injury-plagued season, Polanco was one of the league’s better offensive second basemen — but could make him a potential trade candidate. The Brewers, for instance, exercised an option on Kolten Wong before dealing him to Seattle last offseason.

Those are decisions the Minnesota front office could weigh three months from now. In the interim, they’ll be thrilled with Julien’s excellent start to his career. Wherever he plays, he looks like an impact piece in the lineup, at least against right-handed pitching. The Twins are in pole position for a division title after a disappointing 2021-22 stretch, in part because of their hot-hitting rookie.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Twins, Carpenter, Ashby

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The Cardinals saw a pair of high-profile players exit today’s loss to the Cubs due to injury today. Catcher Willson Contreras exited the game in the sixth inning with right hip tightness before third baseman Nolan Arenado exited the game in the ninth inning. Per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Contreras felt some soreness in his hip while blocking pitches early in the game that was then aggravated upon running the bases later on, while Arenado fouled a ball off his lower left leg earlier in the game. While he initially stayed in the game, Arenado’s leg began to stiffen up during a lengthy rain delay later in the game, prompting Arenado’s exit. Per MLB.com’s John Denton, Arenado told reporters that he’ll “be fine” on Sunday, indicating he could return to the lineup without missing time. Denton added that Contreras is listed as day-to-day.

Losing either Contreras or Arenado for significant time would be a major blow to the St. Louis. While the club is in fourth place in a weak NL Central division with an abysmal 44-55 record, the club has performed better of late with a solid 17-13 record in their last thirty games. Both Arenado and Contreras have been key pieces in that success. Since that month of play began, Arenado boasts a strong .288/.336/.586 slash line while Contreras has caught fire to the tune of a .373/.472/.653 line in 21 games. If Contreras ends up missing time, the Cardinals figure to rely on youngster Ivan Herrera behind the plate alongside backup Andrew Knizner.

More from around MLB’s central divisions…

  • With Twins infielder Jorge Polanco nearing a return from the injured list, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that Polanco would be taking reps at third base during his rehab assignment. The position change, Baldelli explained, is designed to keep second baseman Edouard Julien in the lineup after Polanco’s return. Julien has been a revelation for the Twins in his rookie season, slashing a phenomenal .318/.399/.565 with a wRC+ of 167. With Polanco set to shift to the hot corner, the likes of Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer figure to see their playing time reduced upon his return.
  • MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter is drawing significant trade interest, but that Detroit is expected to hold onto the lefty slugger. The 25-year-old Carpenter has done nothing but hit since reaching the majors late last season, with a .257/.317/.493 slash line in 312 career plate appearances that’s good for a wRC+ of 125. Carpenter has shown particularly prodigious power, with 17 homers despite only half a season’s worth of trips to the plate. Given his offensive success, it’s hardly a surprise that Morosi notes the Tigers see Carpenter as part of the club’s future. Riley Greene, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, and Spencer Torkelson are among the other young pieces already in the majors who could be key factors in the club’s eventual return to contention.
  • Brewers lefty Aaron Ashby has yet to pitch in the majors this year after undergoing shoulder surgery back in April, but he’s making progress toward a return at some point this season. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy relays that Ashby has been on a schedule involving 30-pitch bullpen sessions on Tuesdays and Fridays, and that while there are still hurdles before he can return to game action, he’s expected to head to Arizona next week to continue his rehab. Upon his return, Ashby figures to pitch in out of the bullpen, a role in which he owns a career 3.66 ERA across 39 1/3 innings of work with a 32.5% strikeout rate.

Big Hype Prospects: Westburg, Matos, Crawford, Whisenhunt, Anthony

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The Orioles are finally calling up one of their top hitting prospects, and it isn’t the one I expected to get the first call. Jordan Westburg will make his debut later today. I expected Colton Cowser to win the race to the Majors. With Cedric Mullins recently returning, Cowser is left to await another injury or Aaron Hicks’ inevitable collapse (good outcomes, deeply terrible EVs).

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jordan Westburg, 24, 2B/3B/SS, BAL (AAA)
301 PA, 18 HR, 6 SB, .295/.372/.567

There’s a disconnect between public perceptions of Westburg and scouting reports. The bat will play, though Westburg’s penchant to swing-and-miss could result in long slumps as reports identify exploitable weaknesses. His minor league exit velocities would rate as above average in the Majors. Additionally, Westburg seemingly mixes discipline and targeted aggression in a way that could help keep his strikeouts under control – it has thus far in the minors.

The trouble is his defense. He’s trained all over the infield. Some think he’ll eventually land in left field. We see these sorts of bat-first players all over the league. His flexibility enables the club to view him as a tenth man akin to Chris Taylor (to be clear, Taylor is a far superior fielder). When approaching roster construction, Westburg can be slotted into whatever spot needs filling or else rotate with the regulars to keep everyone fresh.

Luis Matos, 21, OF, SFG (MLB)
45 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .282/.378/.385

On the back of a mediocre AFL performance, it wasn’t guaranteed the Giants were going to roster Matos this year. He would have likely gone early in the Rule 5 draft if they hadn’t. Matos immediately rewarded San Francisco’s decision to protect him. Though discipline has long been a weakness, he has more walks than strikeouts through 45 plate appearances after hitting .398/.435/.685 in 116 Triple-A plate appearances. The 21-year-old has looked like a new hitter this year.

There are still worrying details under the surface. His 89.5-mph average and 107.5-mph max exit velocities suggest middling power. Given his age, he could easily grow into more power – several evaluators believe this will happen. It’s my expectation Matos will soon enter a slump due to poor quality of contact. However, I’m optimistic about the long-range picture. In addition to burgeoning hitting skills, Matos is a plus defensive center fielder.

Justin Crawford, 19, OF, PHI (A)
202 PA, 0 HR, 32 SB, .346/.395/.456

I was surprised to recently discover Crawford had crept onto Baseball America’s Top 100 list. That’s not meant as a knock against Crawford. There happens to be a large number of high-quality prospects around the league. Crawford is more projection than actuality at this stage of his development.

The 17th pick of the 2022 draft, Crawford was seen as the sort of toolsy, incomplete prospect the Phillies have historically loved – and struggled to develop. He’s performing decently in Low-A where his first-rate speed is on display. A .423 BABIP has allowed him to get away with too many swinging strikes for his current low-power profile. He’s expected to age into roughly average pop, so this problem could go away in a couple ways. Comparisons to his father, Carl Crawford, come naturally as they share quite a few traits. He’s reportedly comfortable making adjustments to his hitting mechanics which further increases the volatility of his prospectdom.

Carson Whisenhunt, 22, SP, SFG (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 49.2 IP, 12.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 2.90 ERA

Whisenhunt would rank higher among evaluators if not for off-field issues. As it is, he’s still in consideration for the back-end of Top 100 lists. The simplest issue to comment on publicly is his failed PED test in college. You’ll notice, it’s rare for college players to be caught for PEDs, and it’s not because they’re squeaky clean. For his part, Whisenhunt blames a tainted supplement. The skinny southpaw leads with a double-plus changeup and is only just reaching a level where hitters will have some capacity to cope with the pitch. His changeup is such that he won’t truly be tested until he reaches the Majors. The profile and build are reminiscent of Cole Hamels.

Roman Anthony, 19, OF, BOS (A+)
(A/A+) 251 PA, 5 HR, 12 SB, .236/.379/.382

Anyone statistically minded is going to like Anthony. A 19-year-old performing well in High-A is exciting stuff, particularly when said 19-year-old has a 171 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances. He was considerably more ordinary in Low-A, posting a 110 wRC+ in 202 plate appearances. A sweet-swinging lefty slugger, Anthony has considerable development ahead of him if he’s to continue this speedy race toward the Majors. The P-word gets thrown around. Against better competition, Anthony will find himself behind in the count all too often. Passivity isn’t a death knell. We saw Gunnar Henderson defeat it entering last season and again about a month ago. It’s a trait which has a way of echoing. But for the passivity, Anthony has all the traits of a starting corner outfielder.

FanGraphs gives Anthony a four-paragraph writeup that says more than I can in this space.

Three More

Edouard Julien, MIN (24): The star of the 2022 AFL, Julien is on the verge of losing his prospect “eligibility.” He’s batting .252/.336/.439 through 123 plate appearances. A 34.1 percent strikeout rate has held him back. He also has a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate – nearly double that of his Triple-A performance. Defensively limited, Julien appears in need of an adjustment or two. He has the tools to pull it off.

Jacob Misiorowski, MIL (21): It’s good to be unique as a pitcher. Misiorowski certainly checks the “unique” box. The 6’7’’ right-hander has the sort of funky arm action that makes it hard to identify balls and strikes. Misiorowski lacks a changeup, but we’ve seen plenty of starters succeed without one in recent years, especially those who can live up in the zone with hard heat. He currently has poor command.

Quinn Priester, PIT (22): Priester has been on the radar for a while, bouncing in and out of the Top 100 prospects. He’s a ground ball pitcher who manages around a strikeout per inning while limiting walks and piling up ground balls. Since his fastball isn’t particularly effective, he should be viewed as a potential back-of-the-rotation guy – the type who keeps his team in the game.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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