Dylan Cease

Mets Showing Interest In Various Starting Pitchers

By Darragh McDonald | January 5, 2024 at 1:14pm CDT

The Mets are interested in rotation upgrades and appear to be casting a wide net in that search. Jon Heyman of The New York Post lists Hyun Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea and Shota Imanaga as pitchers they are considering. A report from Joel Sherman of The New York Post echoes those names while also adding Dylan Cease and Brandon Woodruff to the list.

The club has already made a couple of moves to bolster a rotation that has changed a lot in the past year. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were traded at last year’s deadline, then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency. The depth also took a hit when it was reported that David Peterson required hip surgery that would prevent him from being with the club at the start of the upcoming season.

That left Kodai Senga and José Quintana as the two leading incumbents at the start of the offseason, with pitchers like Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi also on hand as options. The Mets have signed since Luis Severino to a one-year deal and acquired Adrian Houser in a trade with the Brewers. Those two likely push Megill and Lucchesi into a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, but Sherman relays that the club would like to add one more arm and push those two further into depth roles. Both pitchers are still optionable and don’t need to be on the active roster if the pitching staff if strengthened.

New president of baseball operations David Stearns is plenty familiar with Woodruff from his time in Milwaukee. He would be more of a long-term play though, unlikely to help the 2024 club too much. He underwent shoulder surgery in October and is slated to miss most of the upcoming campaign, which led the Brewers to non-tender him. But with the Mets looking at 2024 as a sort of transition year with an eye towards more aggressive contention in 2025, perhaps the two sides can line up on some kind of two-year deal. That would allow Woodruff to bank some money while rehabbing and then give the Mets the upside of bolstering their club next year.

If Woodruff can overcome his shoulder woes and return to his previous form, he would upgrade any rotation in the league. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings dating back to his 2017 debut. He has struck out 28.9% of batters faced in that time while walking just 6.5% of them and keeping 42.8% of balls in play on the ground. Health has been a bit of an ongoing issue, as he’s never been able to throw 180 innings in a big league season, but the results on a rate basis have clearly been excellent.

As for Cease, his ERA flared up to 4.58 in 2023 but his peripherals were still above average, including a 27.3% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate. Over the past three years, he has made 97 starts with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. He tallied 12.6 wins above replacement over those three seasons, according to FanGraphs, which puts him eighth on the pitching leaderboard for that stretch.

He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8MM this year and will be due one more raise before becoming a free agent after 2025. That means he will be paid way less than a pitcher of similar skill who is looking for a free agent deal, but it also means the White Sox are setting a very high asking price. It was reported last month that they asked the Reds for four of that club’s top prospects in exchange for Cease. The Reds seem to have given up on the pursuit, signing Frankie Montas instead.

For the Mets, giving up a significant prospect package like that would be a surprise. They have been open about their desire to build a strong prospect pipeline in order to ensure continuous contention and have been even more focused on the long-term plan this offseason. Though Sherman says the Mets continue to check in with the White Sox, the Mets aren’t considered as likely to land him as a team flush with prospects like the Orioles.

Ryu, 37 in March, would line up with the club’s offseason M.O., as they have given out one-year deals to Severino, Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Jorge López, Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin. It appears to be a strategy of spreading money around and improving depth while not committing any future money. It’s also possible that any player in this batch who plays well will end up on the trading block if the Mets are out of contention a few months from now.

Given Ryu’s age and recent health history, he is likely looking at a one-year deal as well. He missed most of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he did return last year and toss 52 innings for the Blue Jays with a 3.46 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 6.3% rate and kept 45.6% of balls in play on the ground. He may have been a bit lucky to keep as many runs from scoring as he did, given his .272 batting average on balls in play and 77.6% strand rate. ERA estimators such as his 4.91 FIP and 4.69 SIERA weren’t as enthused with his performance. On the other hand, perhaps he could shake off some more rust and have better results this year now that he’s further removed from his surgery. As recently as 2020, he finished in the top three in American League Cy Young voting.

Manaea, 32 in February, is coming off a couple of shaky years in terms of results. He has been a solid mid-rotation option in his career but his ERA jumped to 4.96 in 2022 and was at 4.44 last year. Digging into his most recent campaign provides more reason for optimism, something recently explored here at MLBTR. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper to his arsenal in late May and had significantly better results, 6.61 ERA before and 3.60 ERA after adding that pitch. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Manaea could land a two-year, $22MM deal this winter.

As for Imanaga, he stands out from the other names on this list as he seems slated for a far more lengthy commitment, though the Mets have been connected to him in the past. MLBTR predicted he could land a five-year, $85MM contract, but with recent reporting suggesting he has enough interest to push past $100MM. Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that today, however, suggesting there are concerns around a 2020 shoulder surgery and also how his tendency to work up in the zone might make him homer prone in the majors.

If the market drops, perhaps the Mets will sense an opportunity to bolster their long-term rotation outlook, in contrast to their other moves this winter. Quintana, Severino and Houser are all set to be free agents after 2024, so they have very little rotation certainty going forward. The 30-year-old Imanaga has a 3.18 ERA in his NPB career and just posted a 2.80 mark in 2023. In addition to the Mets, he’s had interest from clubs like the Red Sox, Giants, Yankees and Cubs, though Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported today that the Cubs aren’t seen as a likely landing spot for the lefty. Imanaga’s posting period end on January 11, giving him less than a week to get a deal done.

Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease

By Darragh McDonald | January 5, 2024 at 8:49am CDT

The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.

Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.

With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.

For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.

Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.

Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.

His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.

The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.

Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.

But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”

With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.

The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.

As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.

Details On Dylan Cease Trade Talks Between White Sox, Reds

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2023 at 4:03pm CDT

There hasn’t been much on the Dylan Cease front since early December, when reports suggested that the White Sox were going to wait until the free agent pitching market had become a bit clearer before again weighing offers for the right-hander. The Reds were known to be one of the clubs interested in Cease, though 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reported that the Sox had asked for a four-player trade package — pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty, as well as two position-player prospects.

Jason Williams of the Cincinnati Enquirer sheds some more light on Chicago’s demands, writing that the White Sox wanted Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips, “and at least one more prospect.” This could mean that the Sox wanted a five-player return, with Petty and an unknown position player comprising the other two names involved. MLB Pipeline ranks Lowder, Arroyo, and Phillips within the top 68 prospects in all of baseball, while Lowder (45th) and Phillips (86th) also ranked within Baseball America’s last top 100 ranking from September.

New White Sox GM Chris Getz has been open about the fact that he is willing to discuss any player on his team’s roster in trade negotiations, though some obviously come at a much higher price tag than others. Luis Robert Jr. may be the only player close to truly untouchable, and Cease might not be far off, though the two have differing levels of team control. Robert’s contract contains two club options that control his services through the 2027 season, while Cease has only two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining before he can hit free agency in the 2025-26 offseason.

Still, two years of a frontline pitcher like Cease is still quite an asset — either for a White Sox team trying to get on track after a disastrous season, or as a trade chip the Sox can use to reload the roster for both now and the future. The Reds are a natural trade partner on paper, given how Cincinnati is in sore need of pitching help and is also deep in position-player prospects. Cincinnati was known to have interest in Chicago’s pitching even prior to the All-Star break, so it is safe to assume Cease has been on the Reds’ radar for a while, at least in some fashion.

Because the White Sox are known to be targeting pitching, however, the Sox and Reds might not quite line up as smoothly on a Cease trade as it might seem. Obviously any team would be hesitant about moving three of its top-rated pitching prospects, and in particular, the Reds would be wary about cleaning out their pitching assets when they have so much of an surplus in another area (the infield) in their farm system. Speculatively speaking, the Reds might be more willing to consider a package of Arroyo, another position player, and one pitcher for Cease, yet it isn’t surprising why Cincinnati would balk at moving at least two of Phillips, Lowder, and Petty on top of what is already a substantial return of infield talent.

There isn’t really any harm in aiming high, of course, as Getz has plenty of offseason left to continue to explore other potential trade packages involving Cease. The fact that the Dodgers have already nabbed two of the top free agent (Yoshinobu Yamamoto) and trade (Tyler Glasnow) targets on the market has left a lot of other teams still in sore need of rotation help, so it certainly seems possible that Cease might be wearing another uniform by Opening Day.

It is also too early to rule the Reds out of any further Cease talks, even if that rumored four-for-one or five-for-one seems like a bridge too far. Cincinnati has been aggressive in adding to its rotation and bullpen by signing Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan, and bolstered its infield picture even further by signing Jeimer Candelario. The addition of Candelario seemingly makes it more likely that the Reds could move an infielder in some manner of trade, whether for Cease or another pitcher.

Latest On Dylan Cease

By Steve Adams | December 6, 2023 at 6:10pm CDT

6:10PM: Per a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, rival clubs have indicated that the White Sox are “pulling back” in negotiations regarding Cease. Heyman goes on to suggest that there’s a good chance Cease is still dealt at some point this offseason, and that Chicago is likely waiting to see which Yamamoto suitors miss out on the NPB ace before reengaging in discussions on their prized right-hander.

1:23PM: White Sox righty Dylan Cease has been one of the most oft-discussed names at this week’s Winter Meetings, but Chicago’s asking price on the right-hander remains quite high and — at least to this point — prohibitive. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Sox asked the Reds for pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty in addition to two position-player prospects, for instance. Lowder was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft and currently ranks as baseball’s No. 45 prospect at Baseball America. Petty is the former first-rounder the Reds acquired from the Twins in their 2022 Sonny Gray trade.

Given the lofty ask, it’s not especially surprising that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic casts doubt on whether Cincinnati would actually meet Chicago’s demand in the end. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that the Reds have also inquired on Guardians righty Shane Bieber and Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, but they’re somewhat wary of the recent health issues for both. That’s not an issue with the durable Cease, who’s started more games than any pitcher in baseball over the past four seasons.

The Reds, of course, are far from the only team interested in acquiring Cease, who’s drawn interest from the Braves, Orioles and Cardinals (even after their trio of free agent signings), among others. The Dodgers were also linked to Cease last month, and Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports reports that even as L.A. has aggressively courted Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they’ve also been actively involved in Cease talks throughout the Winter Meetings.

Dorsey adds that the Sox have been eyeing pitching in return packages for Cease, but the Dodgers aren’t willing to include young right-hander Bobby Miller in a potential package for Cease. Los Angeles has plenty of other arms to dangle, but Miller posted a 3.76 ERA with impressive strikeout and walk rates in 124 1/3 innings for the Dodgers as a rookie this past season. Miller entered the 2023 season as one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, and between that prospect billing and his strong debut effort, it’s wholly unsurprising that the Dodgers aren’t inclined to move him in a deal for Cease (or, likely, for just about any potential trade target).

Both the Reds and Dodgers stand as natural trade partners for Cease. Cincinnati has plenty of young talent (e.g. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft) but is lacking in more established big leaguers beyond the recently signed Nick Martinez. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will have Walker Buehler on an innings limit in his first full season back from his second career Tommy John surgery. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and will miss at least half the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Dustin May (flexor surgery, Tommy John revision) and Tony Gonsolin (Tommy John surgery) are also expected to miss some or all of the ’24 campaign.

Cease, 27, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.8MM in 2024 and is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season. He finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander after notching 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball with a 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate. The 2023 season saw Cease’s ERA more than double to 4.58, but his strikeout rate (27.4%) remained strong and his 10.1% walk rate was right in line with the prior season. He lost about a mile per hour off his fastball and allowed more hard contact in previous seasons, with his home run rate and average on balls in play both increasing substantially.

Down year notwithstanding, Cease is among the most talented pitchers on the trade market and rival teams are surely intrigued by the idea of a change of scenery that gets him out of the White Sox’ homer-friendly stadium and away from their porous defense. As far as high-end arms on the trade market, he’s also one of very few available with multiple seasons of club control. Each of Bieber, Glasnow and perhaps Corbin Burnes is available for the right offer, but all three members of that trio will reach free agency following the 2024 campaign.

Reds Have Discussed Dylan Cease Trade With White Sox

By Nick Deeds | December 6, 2023 at 1:26am CDT

The Reds have engaged in conversations with the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease this offseason, per Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer. Cease, 28 this month, has been among the most discussed trade targets of the offseason to this point, with Chicago GM Chris Getz suggesting yesterday that there’s no club in the majors without at least some level of interest in the right-hander’s services. Wittenmyer goes on to caution that “nothing concrete” has developed from the discussions between the sides at this point.

The fit certainly makes sense for the Reds. The right-hander is coming off something of a down season in 2023 during which he posted a fairly pedestrian 4.58 ERA, though his 3.72 FIP, elevated .330 BABIP, and unusually low 69.4% strand rate all indicate there may have been some bad luck baked into those results. The idea that Cease may be closer to a front-of-the-rotation arm than his 2023 results indicate is backed up by his phenomenal 2022 campaign, during which he posted a sterling 2.20 ERA with a 3.10 FIP while striking out a whopping 30.4% of batters faced. Overall, Cease has pitched to a 3.54 ERA (121 ERA+) with a 3.40 FIP in 97 starts since the start of the 2021 season, striking out 29.8% of batters faced while walking 10.1% along the way.

That sort of playoff-caliber starter would provide a major boost to a Reds club that struggled to a rotation ERA of 5.43 this year, bottom three in the majors ahead of only Oakland and Colorado. The club’s situation isn’t quite as dire as that figure may make it seem; the club has an interesting group of young starters headlined by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott that also includes the likes of Graham Ashcraft, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, and Connor Phillips. The club also recently landed right-hander Nick Martinez on a two-year deal last week, fortifying their rotation depth. That being said, the group offers little certainty aside from Greene, and the addition of a frontline starter such as Cease would take pressure off the club’s younger arms as they look to establish themselves as big league starters.

Cease is far from the only arm the club has looked into who could fill this role. Cincinnati has reportedly discussed a deal for right-hander Shane Bieber with the Guardians while also showing interest in Rays righty Tyler Glasnow. While Cease figures to cost more in terms of prospect capital more than either of those two alternatives, he’s the only one of the trio controllable beyond the 2024 campaign. He also figures to be the cheapest to acquire from a financial perspective, as Cease is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to received just $8.8MM in his penultimate trip through arbitration. By contrast, Bieber is projected for a $12.2MM salary in 2024 while Glasnow’s salary for next season is locked in at $25MM.

The Reds are far from the only team engaged on Cease. While Getz’s remark that all 29 other clubs have interest in Cease’s services is surely at least somewhat hyperbolic, the right-hander has garnered plenty of interest this winter with the Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets, Orioles, and Red Sox among the clubs to show interest in the hurler so far this offseason. The Braves have also been connected to Cease frequently over the past several weeks, though more recent reports have downplayed the club’s interest. Even so, the market for Cease is clearly robust, and there have been indications that a deal for the righty may not come together until the top of the rotation market- which includes the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell– has been sorted out.

Cease is not the only player Wittenmyer suggests the Reds have interest in, as he also connects the club to infielder Jeimer Candelario. That the Reds have interest in Candelario’s services is nothing new, as the sides were linked last month at the outset of free agency. At the time, it seemed likely that the club’s interest in Candelario may have been predicated on a trade from the club’s glut of infielders that already includes Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jonathan India, and Spencer Steer. While such a deal has not yet materialized, it seems possible the club’s plans may not be so simple. While not discussing the switch-hitting Candelario specifically, Krall told reporters (as relayed by Wittenmyer) recently that the club “could add a switch-hitter that plays the infield” to their positional mix, with such a move allowing the Reds to “push Steer to the outfield more” often.

Candelario, 30, would add some balance to the club’s righty-dominated infield mix. Only De La Cruz (a fellow switch-hitter) ever bats from the left side among Cincinnati’s bevy of young infielders, though lefties TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley both help to balance the overall lineup somewhat as members of the club’s outfield mix. Candelario, who hit .251/.336/.471 overall last season with the Nationals and Cubs, could be in line of a three- or four-year deal this offseason according to Wittenmyer. That’s in line with MLBTR’s prediction of a four-year, $70MM deal that earned Candelario the #13 spot on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list.

The Angels, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and Nationals are among the other clubs Candelario has been connected to this offseason, though it’s worth noting that Arizona subsequently landed Eugenio Suarez in a trade with the Mariners, likely taking them out of the sweepstakes for the third baseman. Despite that interest, Wittenmyer suggests that Candelario’s market, like that of many upper-level positional free agents, has been held up by the bidding on two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani has commanded the attention of big-market clubs such as the Jays, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants to this point in the offseason, and as such it’s hardly a surprise that the league’s other top free agent hitters prefer to wait out Ohtani’s free agency in case one of those teams looks to pivot after missing out on the superstar.

White Sox GM Downplays Possibility Of Luis Robert Trade

By Steve Adams | December 5, 2023 at 1:10pm CDT

The primary focus around the White Sox’ offseason at present is their ongoing slate of trade negotiations surrounding righty Dylan Cease, the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up. Rookie ChiSox GM Chris Getz said last month that there are no players on the roster that he deems untouchable, Cease included, but he continues to describe center fielder Luis Robert Jr. differently that others on his roster.

Getz openly acknowledged widespread interest in Cease yesterday (link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com), noting that there’s no club in MLB that “doesn’t have a level of interest” before eventually adding that Cease is “right at the top” of the offseason market for starting pitching. On Robert, however, Getz understandably struck a different tone.

“Luis Robert is a very difficult player to move and expect that your club is going to get better because of it,” said Getz. “We’re talking about one of the best players in baseball, and we’re very fortunate to have him with the Chicago White Sox. So I have a tough time seeing him wearing another uniform next year.”

Getz again sidestepped the type of firm denial his Anaheim counterpart, Perry Minasian, put forth today on former AL MVP Mike Trout. But Getz also continues to characterize Robert as someone who’s all but assured of staying put on Chicago’s South Side. The reasoning isn’t hard to see. While the Sox are coming off a disastrous 101-loss season, Robert was nothing short of sensational i 2023, hitting .264/.315/.548 with 38 home runs, 36 doubles, 20 steals (in 24 tries) and plus defense in center field. Had the White Sox not been all but eliminated from contention by the end of April, Robert quite likely would’ve found himself on more MVP ballots. (He finished 12th as it is.)

Beyond Robert’s general excellence on the field, he’s also just 26 years old and is signed for another two seasons with two subsequent club options thereafter. In all, he can be controlled through the 2027 season at a combined total of $67.5MM. That type of commitment over a four-year term from a prime-aged center fielder with an MVP-caliber ceiling is a staggering bargain — particularly when the last two seasons aren’t even guaranteed (thus affording the team an eject option if Robert incurs a significant injury).

Ultimately, a trade feels decidedly unlikely. We haven’t seen an established player with this level of affordable contract/team control traded in some time; Juan Soto might be the best recent comparison, but he had just two and a half seasons of control remaining and was expected to earn more than Robert over the course of his remaining control as a player going year-to-year through arbitration (with enormous counting stats).

Once Shohei Ohtani and other top free agents are off the board (ditto Juan Soto and other prominent trade candidates), clubs who miss out on those top targets could well circle back to the White Sox and Robert. However, the type of farm-depleting haul that Robert would command is probably one from which nearly any of Getz’s peers would shy away.

Latest On Braves’ Offseason Plans

By Nick Deeds | December 4, 2023 at 8:26pm CDT

A potential trade of White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the most prominent storylines of the offseason to this point, as White Sox GM Chris Getz has made clear that his club is operating with no untouchables as they look to retool after a 101-loss season. One of the teams most frequently connected to Cease is the Braves, who have a clear need in their rotation after losing Kyle Wright to shoulder surgery and subsequently dealing him to the Royals earlier this offseason.

MLB.com’s Mark Bowman pushed back against reports of Atlanta’s involvement in the Cease sweepstakes today, however, even as speculation regarding the right-hander has begun to intensify alongside the start of the Winter Meetings. Bowman acknowledges that the 27-year-old hurler was on the club’s radar earlier in the offseason but indicates that there isn’t “currently a fit” between the sides while suggesting that Atlanta’s level of interest and involvement in trade talks with Chicago has been “overblown.”

Bowman’s report also indicates that the Braves haven’t shown “serious interest” in two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason. While the Braves are not among the teams that have been most frequently connected to Ohtani’s market this offseason, Bowman’s characterization is a significant departure from a report earlier today from Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who suggested that the Braves not only have shown interest in Ohtani but are one of the teams still “actively involved” in the negotiation process.

While Bowman downplays the club’s interest in making a headline-grabbing move for Cease or Ohtani, he nonetheless suggests that the Braves are “not done” following last night’s move to acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White from the Mariners, leaving the door open to the possibility the Braves make “at least one more big move.” Such a deal could even come in the form of a trade for a front-line starter, with Bowman suggesting Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow as possible alternatives to Cease on the trade market.

Of course, it’s worth noting that the club is in uncharted territory in terms of payroll. After posting a franchise record payroll of $205MM in 2023 (per RosterResource), the Braves are currently projected for an Opening Day payroll of $220MM in 2024, with a luxury tax figure of just over $256MM. That puts them right up against the second tax threshold of $257MM, meaning that the club would surely need to shed payroll before making further moves if they hope to avoid that second threshold. Bowman echoes reporting from earlier today that suggested the Braves will attempt to flip Gonzales, who is owed $12.25MM in 2024, before the offseason comes to a close. In addition to the possibility of flipping Gonzales, Bowman suggests the club could look to “sell high” on either DH Marcell Ozuna or closer Raisel Iglesias in deals that would simultaneously shed salary while potentially bringing in additional talent.

Ozuna is owed $18MM in 2024, the final guaranteed year of his contract that also includes a $16MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2025. The 33-year-old slugger is coming off a strong season at the plate during which he slashed .274/.346/.558 while crushing 40 home runs, 29 doubles, and a triple. While he’s largely limited to DH at this point in his career, he’d surely draw interest on the trade market from clubs looking to upgrade their lineup; just six hitters reached the 40-homer plateau in 2023, and just four posted a higher ISO than Ozuna’s .285 figure.

Iglesias, meanwhile, posted a 2.75 ERA and 3.26 FIP while collecting 33 saves for the Braves across 55 2/3 innings of work. It’s the fourth-consecutive season in which Iglesias has posted an ERA below 3.o0 as the 33-year-old has emerged as one of the most reliable closers in the league in recent years. Excellent as Iglesias has been, he’s guaranteed a $16MM salary in each of the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum to pay for a reliever even with Iglesias’s pedigree. Bowman also points out the club has plenty of established back-end relief options who could anchor the bullpen if Iglesias were to be moved including left-hander A.J. Minter and offseason addition Reynaldo Lopez, though it’s worth noting the club currently plans to stretch the righty out as a potential starting option for 2024.

Trade Notes: Cease, Glasnow, Braves

By Leo Morgenstern | December 4, 2023 at 3:56am CDT

The free agent market for pitchers has been much more active than for position players so far this winter. Seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed new deals, and six have been pitchers: Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo López, Nick Martinez, and Luis Severino. Moreover, 11 different pitchers have already signed for $10MM or more; no position player has crossed the eight-figure threshold.

Still, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto unlikely to sign during the Winter Meetings, it’s possible the market for starting pitching could slow down, as suitors wait for Yamamoto to make his decision and other frontline starters (namely Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery) wait for Yamamoto to set the going rate. With that in mind, perhaps the various starting pitchers on the trade block will draw even more attention during the next four days.

Indeed, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the market for 2022 Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease is “robust,” noting that the Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles – among other teams – are involved in trade talks with the White Sox. Further clubs that have been linked to Cease in recent days include the Mets and Cardinals.

Last week, Morosi reported that discussions around Cease had “intensified” and suggested a deal before the Winter Meetings was “increasingly possible.” However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic threw cold water on that rumor, reporting that White Sox general manager Chris Getz would most likely wait to trade Cease until more of the top free agent starters were off the board. While no further frontline starters have signed in the last few days, Morosi’s report about the robust market for Cease at the Winter Meetings is enough to rekindle speculation about a potential trade in the coming days. After all, if the White Sox have their eye on any particular trade chips, they’d be smart to strike before those chips are spent on Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber instead.

Some more trade-related news from around baseball…

Speaking of Glasnow, the Rays starter is generating a great deal of interest, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While it shouldn’t come as any surprise that plenty of teams would love the right-hander in their rotation – he had a 3.53 ERA and 3.08 SIERA in 21 starts last season – it is noteworthy that he’s drawing so much interest so soon. His $25MM salary for the 2024 season is much more than Cease or Bieber will earn in arbitration, and there are plenty of free agent pitchers available who will only cost money, rather than money and prospects. Evidently, however, his talent is enough to outweigh his price tag.
Speaking on a Zoom call with members of the media, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos emphasized that the team is not planning to trade any of its young players signed to long-term extensions (as relayed by Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). While Anthopoulos qualified his statement with the caveat of “special circumstances,” the executive stressed with “absolute, fierce confidence” that he is “extremely unlikely” to trade anyone from his cost-controlled young core. That group includes Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Spencer Strider, and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., all of whom are under team control through at least the 2027 season.

NL Notes: Cease, Braves, Nationals, Hampson, D’Backs

By Mark Polishuk | December 3, 2023 at 2:42pm CDT

The Braves are known to have trade interest in Dylan Cease, and given the team’s penchant for signing players to long-term extensions, locking up a Georgia native like Cease would seem like a logical next step if a deal can be worked out to obtain the righty from the White Sox. However, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal points out a possible obstacle — Cease is represented by Scott Boras, who traditionally advises his clients to test free agency rather than sign long-term extensions.

Enough high-profile Boras clients have signed extensions that this isn’t at all a hard-and-fast rule, since as Rosenthal notes, Boras will ultimately operate according to his client’s demands. But it is perhaps noteworthy for this particular scenario, since Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos rarely acquires Boras Corporations clients, even though both Anthopoulos and Boras have denied any lack of communication or lack of connection between the two sides. Trading for and extending Cease would be a way of putting this narrative to bed, though it remains to be seen if Atlanta will instead opt for another frontline pitcher besides Cease as the Braves continue to look for rotation help.

East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Rays

By Nick Deeds | December 2, 2023 at 6:04pm CDT

The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the National League, even as it represented a substantial improvement over the club’s 107-loss 2022 campaign. While the club has sat out the top of the free agent market during the recent seasons of their rebuild, it seems that may not be the case this offseason as the club looks to upgrade at the infield corners and at DH, per TalkNats. The club has already been linked to a reunion with third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who was posting career-best numbers with the Nats prior to being dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. The report suggests that the club has interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfield/DH slugger Jorge Soler in addition to Candelario. The report goes on to indicate that Washington has been “very active” in the starting pitching market to this point in the offseason, though it does not connect any specific names to the club.

The rumored targets make sense for the Nationals. The club has a major hole at third base given that former top prospect Carter Kieboom has failed to establish himself the big league level. Kieboom’s .207/.266/.368 slash line (70 wRC+) in 2023 was largely in line with his career numbers of .199/.297/.301 (65 wRC+), and Candelario or another third base addition would almost certainly represent a significant upgrade over the 26-year-old. Meanwhile, an addition at first base or DH could help the club improve an offense that currently figures to use journeyman Joey Meneses at one position without an established starter at the other.

As for the rotation, the club has several interesting young arms such as Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore that they figure to prioritize developing, with veterans such as Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams who can reliably eat innings. That being said, the Nationals’ starting staff posted a combined 5.02 ERA last season, the sixth-worst figure in the majors. What’s more, the club’s 5.30 FIP in the rotation was better than only the lowly Rockies, while their starting staff combined for just 4.9 fWAR, better than only Colorado and Oakland. That leaves plenty of room for improvement if the club decides to add even a lower-level free agent such as Matthew Boyd or Frankie Montas to its rotation, to say nothing of a more impactful addition.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

While the Mets have reportedly shifted their focus away from superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the club is still looking at potential impact additions this offseason. They’ve long been connected to top-of-the-market arm Yoshinobu Yamamoto as they explore potential rotation upgrades, and Heyman adds that the Mets are looking into “nearly every available frontline starter” in addition to Yamamoto, including southpaws Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While Heyman notes the club is unlikely to land a rental arm such as Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber on the trade market, he does suggest the club’s interest in rotation upgrades extends to White Sox starter Dylan Cease, who is under team control for the next two seasons and has seen plenty of trade buzz this offseason. Rotation upgrades make plenty of sense for New York after the club shipped out veteran aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline over the summer, leaving Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and newly-signed righty Luis Severino as the club’s only rotation locks entering 2024.
The Rays have interest in a reunion with right-hander Cooper Criswell even after non-tendering him last month, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Criswell, 27, made his big league debut as a member of the Angels in 2021 with a one-game cup of coffee that lasted just 1 1/3 innings. He spent the past two seasons as a member of the Rays, with a 5.45 ERA and 5.00 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work across 11 appearances. While those numbers are certainly nothing to write home about, Criswell’s ability to go multiple innings and 46.8% career groundball rate at the big league level could make him a worthwhile depth addition for a Rays club that relied on 40 different pitchers throughout the 2023 campaign.

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