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Orioles Notes: Burnes, Cease, Hicks

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The Orioles completed one of the offseason’s biggest trades in landing Corbin Burnes from the Brewers earlier this week, and it was a move that GM Mike Elias said the organization had been “talking about…since when the World Series ended.” It was heavily expected that the O’s would be looking for significant rotation help during the winter, and Elias shared some details on the search when speaking with reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and MLB.com’s Jake Rill) on a conference call in the aftermath of the trade.

“Corbin Burnes is exactly what we needed.  We were in a dogged pursuit of him the entire offseason,” Elias said.  “Obviously, there were other starting pitchers who we pursued, but it’s harder to have somebody higher than Corbin Burnes on your wish list.  It’s a tremendous impact.”

Milwaukee’s side of the deal involved two big league-ready young players (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall) with top-100 prospect pedigrees, as well as the Orioles’ Competitive Balance Round draft pick (currently 34th overall in the 2024 draft order).  It was a noteworthy amount to give up even for a team as rich in minor league depth as the O’s, but Elias felt it was worth the plunge.

“We’re giving up a lot of long-term talent and also a couple of players that were going to contribute to the 2024 Orioles,” Elias said.  “So I mean, this is a risky move, but it lined up for both sides.  We weren’t going to force it necessarily, but our wish list was a rotation upgrade and I certainly think that the Cy Young winner and with his body of work qualifies as that. We couldn’t have found a better upgrade and now we just have to go play the games.”

While the Orioles’ offer was enough to sway the Brewers, it apparently wasn’t enough to get the White Sox to move Dylan Cease, another pitcher known to be on Baltimore’s list of potential targets.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the O’s “offered basically the same package” to White Sox, as well as an unknown additional player.  The larger size of the offer probably reflects the fact that Cease is arbitration-controlled through the 2025 season while Burnes is only controlled through 2024, yet it still wasn’t enough to meet Chicago’s asking price for Cease’s services.

Past reports have suggested that the Sox have a particular interest in Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser, among many of Baltimore’s top prospects.  It can be assumed that none of these blue-chippers weren’t the mystery fourth part of the Orioles’ offer to Chicago, so speculatively, it could be that the White Sox asked for one of the trio as the top position-player piece instead of Ortiz.  Considering that the Sox have reportedly been looking for additional pitching in other Cease-related trade talks with the Mariners and Reds, it could also be that the White Sox wanted a better pitcher included than Hall, or perhaps a pitcher as the fourth element if the Orioles had offered a position player.

These talks are again indicative of the very large price tag that the White Sox are demanding for Cease, which isn’t really surprising given how he is their biggest trade asset apart from Luis Robert.  It also understandable why the Orioles ultimately pivoted from these talks with Chicago to closing the deal on Burnes, as Burnes provides a higher ceiling as a more consistent ace-level pitcher even if he comes with one less year of control than Cease.

Obviously some of this discussion is just conjecture since we don’t know exactly what the Orioles put on the table for Cease, yet it also speaks to the interesting juggling act Elias has been facing in determining how to put the best “final touch” on the AL East-winning roster.  It can be assumed that pretty much every rival team has been asking about the top tier of names in Baltimore’s farm system in any trade talks, so Elias technically has the minor league depth to complete just about any deal, he naturally isn’t going to deplete that depth for just any pitcher.

Speaking of Kjerstad and Cowser, it wouldn’t be surprising to see either youngster play big roles in whatever success awaits the 2024 Orioles, though they’re part of a crowded outfield, first base, and DH picture that also includes Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and even more up-and-coming prospects in Coby Mayo and Kyle Stowers, among others.  Even with all these options on hand, Nightengale reports that the O’s still had interest in bringing back Aaron Hicks before the veteran outfielder signed with the Angels earlier this week.

After an injury-plagued stint with the Yankees, Hicks revived his career after joining the Orioles last season, hitting .275/.381/.425 over 236 PA and acting as a veteran leader within the young clubhouse.  Since the Yankees are still covering Hicks’ previous contract through the 2025 season, the outfielder was available on only a minimum MLB salary to any team this winter, giving him presumably a pretty wide range of suitors.

Though the Orioles are in a better position to contend than the Angels in 2024, it could be that Hicks simply felt he wouldn’t get as much playing time in Baltimore than he would in Los Angeles.  Though the Angels have a fair amount of outfield options themselves, Mike Trout’s injury history and the unproven big league track records of Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell leave more room for Hicks to become a lineup regular.

Mariners Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Mariners have begun discussing a trade for right-hander Dylan Cease with the White Sox, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Nightengale suggests that the White Sox are seeking a package centered around one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, Seattle’s pair of cost-controlled righty starters. There’s no indications that a deal is particularly close or even likely, with Nightengale noting that the White Sox appear likely to retain Cease through the start of the 2024 season if a deal with Seattle doesn’t come together. That sentiment echoes other recent reports regarding Cease’s trade candidacy that have cast doubt on the likelihood he changes uniforms before Opening Day.

The report marks the first time the Mariners have been connected to Cease this winter. The right-hander has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this offseason with the Yankees, Reds, Orioles, and Red Sox among the clubs rumored to have had interest at one point or another. Despite that widespread interest, teams have largely appeared to balk at the high asking price the White Sox have set for Cease’s services. A report last month indicated that the club requested a package of four of the Cincinnati’s top prospects in negotiations with the Reds earlier this winter, and Nightengale added that talks between the White Sox and Orioles regarding Cease have “stopped” at this point in the offseason.

In negotiations with the Mariners, it appears the White Sox have pivoted from their previous ask of a hefty prospect package to instead focus on big-league ready talent. It’s an understandable move for the club to make. Woo and Miller are entering their age-24 and -25 seasons, respectively, coming off solid rookie campaigns with six seasons of team control remaining. Either righty would not only be able to immediately replace Cease in the club’s rotation mix, but would give the club another long-term asset to build around alongside star center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Robert is under team control for the next four seasons.

As for Seattle, adding Cease to their starting staff would give the club perhaps the strongest rotation in the majors. Cease is coming off a relative down season on the mound where he posted a 4.58 ERA in 177 innings of work but is just one season removed from a 2022 campaign where he placed second in AL Cy Young award voting. Over the past three seasons, Cease sports a solid 3.54 ERA (121 ERA+) and 3.40 FIP with a 29.8% strikeout rate, numbers that paint him as a solid #2 starter. The 28-year-old would likely slot into the middle of the club’s rotation alongside Logan Gilbert behind ace Luis Castillo and young star George Kirby, with whichever of Woo or Miller remained with the Mariners rounding out the club’s starting rotation.

Replacing Miller or Woo with Cease in the rotation would provide the club with additional certainty in a rotation that figures to lean heavily on young players. The most experienced pitcher aside from Castillo who currently projects for the club’s starting rotation is Gilbert, who is entering just the fourth season of his career in 2024. Kirby has just two MLB seasons under his belt, while both Miller and Woo are entering their sophomore campaigns with just 25 and 18 big league starts respectively under their belts.

Cease, by contrast, has been among the most durable starters in the league in recent years with 97 starts over the past three seasons. For a team that has long valued starting pitching depth but parted with both Marco Gonzales while swapping Robbie Ray for Anthony DeSclafani earlier this offseason, bringing a durable veteran arm in place of a young player who has yet to make 30 starts in a big league season could provide the club with an opportunity to make up for the innings lost by parting with Gonzales and Ray.

On the other hand, it would nonetheless be something of a surprise to see Seattle part with one of their young, cost-controlled arms in a deal that wouldn’t address an area of greater need such as the club’s infield, where Josh Rojas and Luis Urias project to be the everyday starters at second and third base. In addition to shopping for another infielder to add to the club’s mix, the Mariners have expressed interest in fortifying their relief corps, which currently features Andres Munoz and Matt Brash as its back-end options after the club dealt closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks last summer. Recent comments from president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto also seemed to cast doubt on the possibility of a deal involving Miller or Woo, as he suggested that retaining the duo was “Plan A” for their offseason.

Latest On Dylan Cease’s Trade Candidacy

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Few players have found their names in more trade rumors this winter than Dylan Cease. It has been widely expected the White Sox would move him. He’s down to his final two years of arbitration control and first-year GM Chris Getz has expressed a willingness to reshape the roster.

At the same time, Getz and his front office have set a high goal in trade discussions. Reports have suggested they’re seeking a return built around multiple top prospects. Teams like the Reds, Yankees, Dodgers and Braves were involved in Cease discussions but have pivoted to other free agent/trade targets after balking at Chicago’s ask.

Cease remains with the Sox less than a month from the opening of Spring Training. That has led to increasing speculation that Chicago could hold him into the season. One rival executive cast doubt on a Cease trade to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com yesterday, suggesting the White Sox aren’t showing any interest in backing off their asking price.

That’s a sentiment echoed by a few other reports. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted this morning that a pair of executives outside the organization believe Chicago will hold Cease until the deadline. Robert Murray of FanSided writes that the Sox don’t appear close to any deal, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests there’s a “growing belief” within the industry that Cease stays in Chicago until the summer.

None of that is a guarantee Cease won’t move in the coming weeks. There’s nothing to suggest the White Sox plan to cut off trade dialogue even as they hold firm to a lofty ask. Chicago believed they’d have increased leverage in talks once Yoshinobu Yamamoto came off the board. Yamamoto’s signing didn’t spur a deal, but it’s possible they’re taking a similar stance with regards to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.

The Orioles, Red Sox and Mets have, to varying degrees, been linked to Cease this offseason. The Angels, Padres and Pirates haven’t been directly tied to the righty but are generally known to be looking for starting pitching. Baltimore has perhaps been the subject of the most speculation, a reflection of their loaded minor league pipeline and the benefit of adding a high-octane arm to last year’s 101-win club. Heyman reports that the O’s are reluctant to part with 24-year-old infielder Jordan Westburg, in whom the Sox are apparently showing interest. The former first-round pick hit .260/.311/.404 through his first 68 MLB games and has six years of club control.

Cease agreed to an $8MM salary for his second-to-last season of arbitration. He’s looking to rebound from a somewhat disappointing 2023 campaign in which he posted a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. Cease still throws exceptionally hard and punched out 27.3% of opposing hitters a year ago. If the Sox do hold him into next season, he has the upside to be the most in-demand starter at the deadline.

José Berríos, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle have all returned multiple highly-regarded prospects in summer deals with a year and a half of control. Yet the Sox would also assume the risk of Cease suffering an injury or regression if they hold him for another few months.

It’s the biggest decision for Getz in his first offseason leading baseball operations. He pulled the trigger on a deal sending reliever Aaron Bummer to the Braves for a five-player return at the start of the offseason. Getz and his staff have otherwise slow-played things thus far, supplementing the roster on the margins with fairly low-cost free agent pickups (i.e. Erick Fedde, Martín Maldonado, Chris Flexen, Tim Hill, Paul DeJong).

Central Notes: Guardians, Cubs, Cease, Gorman

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The Guardians have hired Dan Puente for an unspecified role on their major league coaching staff, per a report from The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Puente, 42, was a 12th-round pick in the 2004 draft by the Orioles and played in the minor leagues for two seasons, though he didn’t make it past the Single-A level before retiring from professional baseball. During his post-playing career, Puente took roles in the Astros and White Sox organizations before eventually landing a hitting coach gig in the Cubs’ minor league system prior to the 2020 campaign. He’s remained with the Cubs as a minor league hitting coach ever since, most recently coaching at High-A South Bend this past season.

While it’s not yet known what role Puente will take on in Cleveland, it’s worth noting that the Guardians lost assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez to the Padres earlier this winter when Rodriguez was offered a job as hitting coach under new manager Mike Shildt. Cleveland’s coaching staff has seen some noticeable turnover this winter, headlined by longtime skipper Terry Francona’s retirement from managing. Since Stephen Vogt was hired to take over for Francona as manager, the club has added Craig Albernaz as bench coach and Kai Correa as fielding coordinator. The club’s new coaching staff figures to have their hands full as they look to return to contention after a surprising third place finish in a weak AL Central division last year. The club’s 76-86 record put them two games behind the Tigers for second place and a whopping 11 games back of the Twins for the division crown.

More from the league’s Central divisions…

  • Cubs fans enjoyed the club’s annual Cubs Convention this weekend, and comments from president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer regarding the club’s offseason were among the events on the event itinerary. As noted by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Hoyer seemingly pumped the breaks on trade rumors regarding young slugger Christopher Morel, whose name has swirled in trade rumors throughout the offseason. While Morel wasn’t in attendance at this weekend’s festivities, Mooney relays that Hoyer described the idea that Morel’s absence was due to a potential trade in the works as “laughable.” Morel slashed a solid .247/.314/.508 while slugging 26 homers in just 107 games in 2023, though his position for the 2024 season is up in the air after spending much of last season at DH.
  • White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has been the topic of plenty of trade talks throughout the offseason, and WEII’s Rob Bradford recently spoke to the hurler about the barrage of rumors about his future this winter. Cease told Bradford that he takes most rumors “with a grain of salt” and noted that he hasn’t spoken with the club’s front office about the possibility of a trade, though he did acknowledge that “Publicly saying it’s an option is like an indirect way of letting me know.” Cease added that whether or not he’s traded has no impact on his offseason work, saying that “At the end of the day, it really isn’t my job… My job is to perform wherever I go and be a good player.” The 28-year-old righty is coming off a down season where he pitched to a 4.58 ERA over 33 starts put finished as the runner-up for the AL Cy Young award just one year prior after posting a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings of work back in 2022.
  • Back issues played a role in limiting Cardinals infielder Nolan Gorman to just 119 games last year, and Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays that the 23-year-old slugger has changed his offseason routine in hopes of staying healthy throughout the 2024 campaign. While Gorman told Guerrero that he hasn’t been able to pin down a specific cause of the issues, he’s been focusing on mobility and flexibility this offseason while working with a nutritionist to best prepare himself for the upcoming season. Gorman flashed impressive power in 2023, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers in just 119 games last year. Gorman split time between second base, third base, and DH last season and figures to split time between second base and DH with Brendan Donovan headed into the 2024 campaign.

Dylan Cease Rumors: Dodgers, Busch, Orioles, Yankees

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Considering the Dodgers’ need for pitching, it isn’t surprising that L.A. was linked to White Sox righty Dylan Cease in trade rumors on multiple occasions this winter.  There hasn’t been much in the way of new reporting on the Dodgers’ interest in Cease for over a month, however, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that a trade may be less likely because the Dodgers have since fortified their rotation with other arms.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s twelve-year, $325MM contract was the big free agent strike, and Los Angeles swung a big trade with the Rays to land Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot.  Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Walker Buehler now project as the top three starters in the L.A. rotation, with Bobby Miller as the fourth, and a collection of candidates (Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Michael Grove) battling for the fifth starter job.  Dustin May is expected to make a midseason return from elbow surgery, and a reunion with Clayton Kershaw remains a possibility even if Kershaw will also be sidelined until around the middle of the year as he recovers from shoulder surgery.

There’s still some room here for the Dodgers to further solidify things beyond a potential new contract with Kershaw, so a Cease trade can’t be entirely ruled out, even if may be less likely.  It’s safe to assume that the Dodgers will continue to monitor the market for any bigger-name possibilities, yet Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles might now be “looking for future value” in any further trades, such as Thursday’s swap with the Cubs that saw the Dodgers acquire two teenage prospects in exchange for Michael Busch and Yency Almonte.

In one particularly novel scenario, Rosenthal reports that the Dodgers even considered acquiring Cease from the White Sox and then flipping him to a third team.  The specifics of this arrangement aren’t clear, yet it would’ve been a fascinating way for both the Dodgers and White Sox to obtain some high-level young talent for Cease, in a mix-and-match of prospects each team might’ve had their eye on in the Dodgers’ organization or within the pipeline of whoever the third club involved might’ve been.

Busch was also part of some of the Dodgers’ offers for Cease, Rosenthal writes, so the young infielder might’ve found himself on the south side of Chicago rather than landing in Wrigleyville.  Without knowing what the rest of this trade package to the White Sox might have included, it makes sense why the Sox might have not been too enthralled with Busch as a key piece.  While Busch has been crushing minor league pitching, his defense is considered a weak point — if first base ends up being his ultimate position, the White Sox already have Andrew Vaughn in place.

It isn’t any secret that the White Sox have put a very high price tag on Cease, so while Busch is a top-100 type of prospect, the Sox might’ve viewed him as a secondary or even tertiary piece in an acceptable trade package.  Several highly-regarded prospects have been reportedly on Chicago’s radar in trade talks, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds Yankees pitching prospect Chase Hampton and Orioles outfielders Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser to the list of young players drawing interest from the Southsiders.

Since the Yankees just signed Marcus Stroman this week, they could perhaps be out on Cease, since naturally New York isn’t keen on the idea of moving Hampton or slugger Spencer Jones, who is also reportedly of interest to the White Sox in a Cease trade.  Considering how the Yankees already dealt a lot of their younger pitching depth to the Padres to obtain Juan Soto, moving Hampton in particular might be something of a non-starter.

Kjerstad (the second overall pick of the 2020 draft) and Cowser (fifth overall in 2021) are two of the many up-and-comers in Baltimore’s loaded farm system, and both players made their Major League debuts this past season, though with only 110 combined plate appearances.  The duo might well be lined up as the Orioles’ corner outfielders of the future, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see pending free agent Anthony Santander dealt at some point this season if either Kjertsad or Cowser prove themselves capable of being MLB regulars right away.

Of course, it’s not out of the question that the O’s might deal from their deep minor league pipeline at some point this offseason, perhaps to obtain a front-of-the-rotation pitcher like Cease.  Baltimore might be more willing to come closer to Chicago’s asking price due to the sheer number of quality prospects the O’s have on hand, yet considering how many of those youngsters have barely reached the majors or even Triple-A, the Orioles might want more time to evaluate their options before deciding on who might be trade bait.

Yankees Have Made Offer To Blake Snell

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The Yankees have made an opening contract offer to free agent starter Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, but Heyman adds the team and Snell’s representatives at the Boras Corporation remain “far apart” in talks.

New York is one of the teams that has been most frequently connected to Snell in recent weeks. That’s at least in part because they’re seemingly involved on most or all of the big-name pitchers available. They’ve been linked to old friend Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency. On the trade front, reports have tied the Yankees to the likes of Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo and Shane Bieber.

It doesn’t seem they’re all that close on any of those players. Heyman reports the Yankees have thus far balked at Chicago’s asking price on Cease, which he adds involves a prospect package centered around 2022 first-round pick Spencer Jones. Baseball America recently ranked Jones, who hit .268/.337/.450 with 13 homers in High-A last year, as the #2 talent in the New York farm system. That’s consistent with various reports that Chicago wants multiple high-end prospects for Cease.

Meanwhile, Heyman notes there’s been “no traction” between the Yankees and Miami on talks involving Luzardo or righty Edward Cabrera. It’s unclear whether rentals like Bieber or Corbin Burnes will move this offseason. If New York doesn’t pick up steam on any of their trade conversations — they’ve surely discussed possibilities beyond what has been publicly reported — that could increase their urgency to add a top-of-the-rotation starter via free agency.

Snell and Montgomery are the clear top two options available. The incumbent Rangers have been linked to Montgomery throughout the offseason. Teams like the Angels, Giants, Phillies and Red Sox have been tied to both left-handers. The Giants and Halos have been more frequently linked to Snell than have the latter two clubs.

The Yankees are the first team known to have an offer on the table (although that’s certainly not to say there aren’t others that were unreported). Snell is coming off his second career Cy Young campaign. He worked to an MLB-best 2.25 ERA over 180 innings. He fanned over 31% of batters faced and was utterly dominant down the stretch, posting a 1.23 ERA from June 1 onward. His command is erratic, but few pitchers are as difficult to hit when they’re on.

A pursuit of Snell is fairly reminiscent of last winter’s run at Carlos Rodón, another left-hander with huge stuff coming off an excellent platform year despite some career inconsistency. Rodón’s six-year, $162MM deal looked disastrous in year one. While one could argue that should make the Yankees gun-shy about pursuing a similar pitcher, it also increases the need for another high-end starter. Neither Rodón nor Nestor Cortes looked like top-of-the-rotation arms last season. That leaves New York looking for another star to pitch behind Gerrit Cole and reduce some of the pressure on Rodón and Cortes.

MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM deal for Snell, who turned 31 last month. A signing team would also forfeit draft compensation because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. For a team that paid the luxury tax like the Yankees, that’d be their second- and fifth-highest selections next year and $1MM in international signing bonus space. New York’s luxury tax payroll sits around $291MM, according to Roster Resource. They’re taxed at a 95% rate on spending up to the $297MM mark and will pay a 110% tax on every dollar beyond that figure.

White Sox, Dylan Cease Avoid Arbitration

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The White Sox avoided arbitration with righty Dylan Cease by agreeing to an $8MM deal, according to Robert Murray of FanSided.

Cease, a client of the Boras Corporation, fell short of our projection in agreeing to a $2.3MM raise over last year’s salary.  As a player with four years of Major League service time, Cease will be eligible for arbitration once more for 2025 before reaching free agency.

Cease, who recently turned 28, had an off-year results-wise in 2023 with his ERA climbing to 4.58.  Still, his 97 starts over the last three seasons leads all of MLB, and he finished second in the 2022 AL Cy Young voting coming off a 2.20 ERA.  Cease averages about 96 miles per hour on his fastball and misses plenty of bats, though he also issues a lot of free passes.

Cease remains one of the top remaining trade candidates of the 2023-24 offseason.  New White Sox GM Chris Getz has been fielding inquiries, and there’s likely at least a half-dozen suitors.  You can read up on the latest Cease rumors here.

At present, though, Cease leads a projected White Sox rotation that also includes new additions Erick Fedde, Mike Soroka, and Chris Flexen, as well as holdover Michael Kopech.

Latest On Dylan Cease

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Dylan Cease remains atop the list of potential trade candidates for teams seeking rotation upgrades this offseason, but White Sox general manager Chris Getz isn’t backing off on his asking price in a trade, writes ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. Other clubs who’ve spoken to the Sox about Cease tell Rogers that the ask has been “multiple” top prospects with additional lower-end talent; the Sox aren’t open to dealing two affordable years of control over their top starter for a package centered around just one top-tier prospect.

That generally aligns with prior reporting that the White Sox asked the Reds for last year’s first-round pick, Rhett Lowder, and top prospects Edwin Arroyo and Connor Phillips in exchange for Cease. Other teams have similarly balked at the idea of parting with so much talent from the top end of their system.

Rogers reports that the Braves approached the Sox and dangled infielder Vaughn Grissom, among others, but were rebuffed. Grissom instead went to the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade. The Yankees, despite having known interest in Cease, aren’t likely to further deplete their farm after already acquiring Juan Soto (and Alex Verdugo) this offseason, per Rogers — at least not at the current asking price. Outfield prospect Spencer Jones, in particular, seems highly unlikely to be included in any potential deal, he adds. Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of The Athletic writes in his latest mailbag that talks between the Red Sox and White Sox never gained traction, thanks to Chicago’s steep ask.

Despite the lack of traction in talks thus far, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said in a Tuesday appearance on Foul Territory that he expects Cease to be moved prior to the season. The demand for starting pitching, as Rosenthal rightly observes, clearly outpaces the supply that’s available in free agency. Beyond that, the asking price on some other pitchers rumored to be available — Jesus Luzardo, in particular — would likely be even greater than the ask for Cease. Luzardo has three years of club control as compared to Cease’s two.

Each of the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Giants, Dodgers and Padres, at the very least, could still use some degree of rotation upgrade. The Cardinals signed three free agents early in the offseason (Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson) but were reported to have interest in Cease even after making that trio of additions.

Getz, unsurprisingly, kept things close to the vest in his public comments yesterday. The newly minted general manager rattled off a series of familiar choruses, noting that Cease would only be moved for the right deal, that there was no urgency to make a swap given his remaining club control, and specifying that the majority of the league has shown at least some level of interest in the right-hander.

Cease is coming off a down season that saw him post a 4.58 ERA with a slightly diminished 27.3% strikeout rate. That’s down only by his lofty standards; he punched out 30.1% of his opponents a year prior while pitching to a sparkling 2.20 ERA that netted him a runner-up finish in American League Cy Young voting.

While last year’s ERA was unsightly, Cease still missed bats at a high level, sat just under 96 mph in terms of average fastball velocity, and notched a well above-average 13.6% swinging-strike rate. He’s also made a full slate of starts in each of the past four seasons, leading the Majors with 109 games started since 2020. Add in that Cease is projected for an eminently affordable $8.8MM salary in arbitration this winter (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and is controllable through the 2025 season, and his appeal becomes even more apparent.

Any team to acquire Cease would surely view him as a prime rebound candidate whom they can control for two seasons before recouping some prospect value in the form of a qualifying offer. An extension with Cease always remains a possibility, albeit perhaps a faint one. Clients of the Boras Corporation tend to test the open market, though there are plenty of examples of Boras clients who have instead signed extensions (e.g. Xander Bogaerts, Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez — among others).

White Sox GM Discusses Rotation, Right Field

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White Sox general manager Chris Getz spoke with reporters today and discussed some of the club’s plans for the rest of the offseason and the upcoming campaign, with Scott Merkin of MLB.com and Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times among those to relay the information. Getz acknowledged that Dylan Cease has received plenty of interest from other clubs but said that the Sox won’t trade him unless they feel the deal makes the club better. Elsewhere in the rotation, he said that Garrett Crochet will come into the season preparing to be a starter and that Chris Flexen is expected to be a starter as well. In terms of the lineup, he said that they don’t have an established starting right fielder as of right now and are open to external additions.

Cease, 28, has posted excellent results over the past three years and has been incredibly popular on the trade market in recent months. Teams such as the Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox, Mets, Braves and Reds have all been connected to his market this winter. Some of those clubs have since pivoted to other moves but the rumors around the righty have continued to swirl, with many in the industry still expecting a trade before the start of the season. But from the point of view of the Sox, they don’t feel they have to make a deal. “We’ve had [trade] conversations about Dylan [Cease] but we’re not going to move someone unless there’s a benefit,” Getz said.

The righty is still under club control for two years, so the Sox don’t have to move him immediately if they don’t want to. But his trade value won’t get any higher at this point, making it sensible for them to take the best offer they can get at the moment. By the time the trade deadline rolls around, they will only be marketing a year and a half of his services and the number of suitors might dwindle if some interested clubs fall out of contention. There’s also the ever-present risk of an injury sapping Cease of his trade value.

It was reported back in December that the Sox were being patient with the market, seeing if the interest in Cease picked up after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed and the clubs that missed on him pivoted. Yamamoto has now signed with the Dodgers, leaving Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery as the top free agents available but Cease one of the top trade candidates. Pitchers like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Jesús Luzardo have also been in trade rumors but it’s unclear how open their respective clubs are to offers.

In the case of Cease, the Sox have reportedly been setting a high asking price, which is perhaps why no deal has been consummated as of yet. It was reported last month that the Sox asked the Reds for four of their top prospects, which seemed to put an end to the discussions. The Reds agreed to terms with free agent Frankie Montas on a deal about a week after that report. Whether the Sox will back down from that apparent lofty asking price, or some other club will bite the bullet and meet it, remains to be seen.

The high level of interest and the asking price are both reflections of his immense talent. Over the past three campaigns, he has taken the ball 97 times and produced an earned run average of 3.54 in that time, along with a 29.8% strikeout rate. FanGraphs considered him to be worth a combined 12.6 wins above replacement in those years, the eighth-best tally out of all big league pitchers. His ERA jumped to 4.58 ERA in 2023 but there seems to be little concern about that. His 27.3% strikeout rate was also a couple of ticks below the previous two seasons but he was also held back by his .330 batting average on balls in play and 69.4% strand rate, both of which are on the unlucky side. His 3.72 FIP and 4.10 SIERA suggest he was closer to his previous self than the ERA may indicate.

In addition to his skills, he’s also attractive due to his contractual situation. While frontline starters can secure nine-figure guarantees as free agents, Cease is still in his arbitration years. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.8MM and will be due one more raise before he’s slated for free agency after 2025.

Whether the Sox eventually move Cease or not, they will have plenty of question marks in their rotation. Pitchers like Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, Michael Soroka and Touki Toussaint will be in the mix for jobs but there’s uncertainty with each one of them. Fedde is coming off a tremendous showing in the Korea Baseball Organization but struggled in his MLB career prior to that. Soroka was mediocre in 2023 after missing most of the previous three seasons due to injuries. Kopech and Toussaint have battled significant control problems in their respective careers.

It appears the club is keeping an open mind with their rotation mix, with Crochet set to be built up this year. The lefty has previously expressed an interest in return to a rotation gig and will apparently get some kind of shot in the months to come.

Now 24 years old, Crochet was drafted by the Sox in 2020 and was quickly launched to the majors, making his debut later that same year as a reliever. In 2021, he stuck with the big league bullpen and posted an ERA of 2.82 over 54 appearances. There was some consideration of stretching him out as a starter going into 2022 but he required Tommy John surgery that April and missed the entire campaign. He returned to the Sox last year as a reliever but missed three months of the season due to shoulder inflammation and eventually made just 13 appearances.

Due to his limited workload in recent years, it may not be possible to fully stretch him out in just one season, something Getz acknowledged. Due to the canceled minor leagues in 2020, the Tommy John layoff and then the shoulder troubles, the southpaw has thrown just 73 big league innings over the past four years, as well as another 12 1/3 on rehab assignments in 2023. That would make it difficult for him to suddenly jump to 200 or even 150 innings in 2024, but the club will nonetheless give him some runway to see how it plays out.

“He believes he can be a starter. We’ve seen him be a starter in the past. So we are going to go into spring prepared to stretch him out and we’ll make adjustments along the way if need be,” Getz said. “He hasn’t started in a couple years. So, it’s going to take a little bit of time to appropriately stretch him out. We are going in with the intention for him to be a starter in 2024.” Crochet is eligible for arbitration this winter and is currently slated for free agency after 2026.

Also in the rotation mix will be Flexen, with Getz saying they expect starter’s innings out of him. The righty has worked both as a starter and reliever in recent years, with a disastrous 2023 campaign but better results in the two prior seasons. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 317 1/3 innings for the Mariners, with 53 of his 64 appearances coming as a starter. He had a 3.66 ERA in that time, only striking out 16.5% of batters but limiting walks and barrels.

But in 2023, he finished with a 6.86 ERA, splitting his time between the Mariners and Rockies. The Sox decided to overlook that rough showing and gave Flexen a $1.75MM guarantee on a big league deal. Though his performance will ultimately have a bearing on his role, the club appears to be planning on slotting him into the rotation mix.

Turning away from the rotation, Getz also said the club doesn’t have an established right fielder. He mentioned that they have internal options, including non-roster invitees, but that they are looking to make additions. That is a reflection of the poor debut season of Óscar Colás, who was a notable prospect coming into 2023 but struggled badly in his first 75 major league games. He batted .216/.257/.314 in his 263 plate appearances and also received poor grades for his defense. That led to tallies of -1.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and -1.5 from Baseball Reference. He still has two option years remaining, allowing the club to keep him in the minors if he doesn’t show signs of significant improvement.

The free agent market still features some notable outfield-capable guys, such as Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman, Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Joc Pederson, David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, Joey Gallo, Whit Merrifield and Randal Grichuk. The trade market could theoretically feature guys such as Randy Arozarena and Max Kepler, though it would be a surprise if a retooling club like the White Sox gave up significant prospects in any deal.

In terms of the internal options who could be battling Colás, Gavin Sheets has had some good hitting results in the past but is coming off a rough season and is considered a poor defender. Brett Phillips was signed to a minor league deal and is a strong defender but weak at the plate. Wynton Bernard and Mark Payton have been signed to minor league deals as well but both of them have less than 70 major league plate appearances. Given those internal options, keeping an eye out for upgrades makes sense, whether that’s a free agent signing, a trade or even just a waiver claim.

Latest On Yankees’ Starting Pitching Pursuits

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The Yankees are well-established as seeking an arm to pair with ace Gerrit Cole at the front of their rotation. For much of the offseason, the club had their sights set on NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though they’ve had to shift gears in the aftermath of the right-hander’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last month. The club has seemingly stepped those pursuits up recently as recent reports have connected the club to both right-hander Dylan Cease via trade and southpaw Blake Snell in free agency. Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update on the club’s pitching pursuits recently, noting that “there’s a belief” within the organization that the club will be successful in adding a front-of-the-rotation arm before the season begins. Heyman adds that club chairman Hal Steinbrenner is “on board” with the idea of making a significant addition to the rotation, suggesting a willingness on the side of ownership to spend on rotation improvements.

Of course, commitment to adding a front-of-the-rotation starter and actually doing so are two different things, and Heyman reports that the club has continued to engage with Snell in free agency, though there’s a notable gap between the sides in negotiations. The same goes for left-hander Jordan Montgomery, though Heyman notes that the Yankees believe they have a better shot of signing Snell among the two southpaws. Montgomery, of course, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and spent six and a half seasons in the Bronx before being shipped to St. Louis at the 2022 trade deadline.

Heyman suggests that Montgomery may prefer to return to the Rangers this offseason after winning the World Series with the club last year. Even if that’s the case, however, it’s worth noting that Texas’s front office has indicated the club doesn’t have much room in the budget for significant additions. That could pose a major roadblock to a Montgomery reunion in Arlington, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently reported that the left-hander is seeking a contract that would surpass the $172MM Aaron Nola re-signed in Philadelphia for back in November. That ask still positions him as cheaper than Snell, who Sherman notes is believed to be seeking more than $200MM this winter.

As for Cease, Heyman notes that the White Sox and Yankees face a “serious gap” in negotiations, with Yankees brass uncertain whether or not Chicago truly plans to move Cease before the beginning of the season and Heyman noting they’d face in uphill battle in outbidding other potential suitors like the Reds and Orioles for the righty’s services. With that being said, Cease isn’t the only player the Yankees are looking into on the trade market. Heyman reports that the club has discussed a trade with the Marlins as the club fields interest on lefties Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, and Braxton Garrett as well as right-hander Edward Cabrera, though he adds that those sides don’t appear to be close on a deal, either.

Even so, the Marlins could prove to be a cleaner fit as a trade partner for the Yankees than the White Sox. Miami has a clear need for a starting shortstop as things stand; the club currently has utilityman Jon Berti penciled into the everyday shortstop role with the likes of Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards as potential depth options. New York, meanwhile, has plenty of depth in the middle infield, where 2023’s double play duo of Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres figure to block youngster Oswald Peraza from regular playing time in the majors. While the Yankees were recently granted additional flexibility in how they handle Peraza via a fourth option year on the slick-fielding infielder, the 23-year-old could make plenty of sense as the centerpiece of a package that lands the Yankees a quality rotation piece.

However the Yankees end up addressing their rotation woes, it’s clear that the club needs to make an addition. Each of Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Luis Severino, and Domingo German have parted ways with the club this offseason by way of either trade or free agency, severely hampering the club’s rotation depth. While Cole provides the club with a reliable, innings-eating ace at the front-of-the-rotation, both Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are coming off 2023 season hampered by injuries and ineffectiveness. Clarke Schmidt’s first season as a regular member of the starting rotation saw him perform on the level of a back-end starter, but without an external addition the club’s final rotation spot would go to an unproven arm such as Clayton Beeter or Luis Gil.

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