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Dylan Bundy

Angels Receiving Trade Inquiries On Dylan Bundy

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The Angels’ 2020 season hasn’t gone according to plan whatsoever, and at 9-20 on the year they look like one of the few clear-cut sellers in the game. A faulty starting rotation is again at the root of the issue, as the team’s starters rank 28th in MLB with a combined 5.84 ERA.

None of that can be blamed on right-hander Dylan Bundy, however, whose offseason acquisition looks like one of the best moves made by any team. But Bundy is only controlled through the 2021 season, and with the current campaign looking lost for the Halos, teams have already been placing calls on the right-hander’s availability, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

The 27-year-old Bundy doesn’t have the blazing fastball he had as an elite prospect who was selected by the Orioles with the No. 4 overall pick back in 2011, but he hasn’t needed it to dominate in 2020. Through 38 1/3 frames, Bundy has logged an outstanding 44-to-8 K/B ratio while pitching to a 2.58 ERA and 3.06 FIP. He ranks in the 80th percentile or better in fastball spin rate, hard-hit rate, opponents’ exit velocity, expected batting average against and expected wOBA, per Statcast. Bundy is throwing his slider more than ever before and has scaled back the usage of his four-seam fastball to a career-low 30.1 percent. His 38 1/3 innings are the third-most of any Major League pitcher, among whom he ranks 10th in bWAR and 13th in fWAR.

Because his prior seasons have been punctuated by inconsistency, Bundy has yet to see his arbitration price balloon up too high. He’s on a $5MM salary for 2020, which is prorated to $1.8MM. Of that sum, he’s still owed about $914K. Bundy would be owed one final arbitration raise before he hits the open market following the 2021 season, but it’s still a plenty reasonable price if clubs buy into the new and improved version he’s presented so far this year.

Making a trade of this nature would be a difficult about-face for an Angels club that has been in the market for top-end pitching for years and seems to have found it in Bundy, but his dwindling club control will likely force the team to make a tough decision. The package the Angels gave up to get Bundy was not regarded as overly expensive in terms of prospect capital, and it’s eminently feasible that GM Billy Eppler could get more than he parted with to acquire Bundy in the first place.

Bundy is very arguably one of the top arms on the market, and that’s particularly true given his control beyond 2020. Teams are expected to be stingier than ever in terms of what they’re willing to part with for pure rental players in 2020, as they’d only be acquiring one month of said player for a crack at an expanded postseason that some view as something of a novelty.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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Angels Acquire Dylan Bundy

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4:16pm: The Orioles have announced the move. Their 40-man roster is down to 37 players.

3:41pm: Also going to the Orioles in the deal are right-handers Zach Peek, Kyle Bradish and Kyle Brnovich, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports (Twitter link).

3:06pm: The Angels have reached a deal to acquire right-hander Dylan Bundy from the Orioles, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Minor league right-hander Isaac Mattson is among the players headed back to the Orioles in the trade, which should be the first of several moves made to add to the Angels’ rotation this winter. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles will acquire a total of four minor league pitchers in the deal (Twitter link).

Dylan Bundy | Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Bundy, 27, was the fourth overall pick by the Orioles back in 2011 and was touted as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects before a slew of injuries slowed his path to the big leagues. Once heralded as a potential ace, he’s instead settled in as a back-of-the-rotation arm in Baltimore, although despite a loss of velocity on his formerly blazing heater, Bundy still creates some optimism that there could be more in the tank.

First and foremost, it should be noted that he’s largely distanced himself from his early-career injury troubles, making 89 starts across the past three seasons as the lone source of consistency in the Baltimore rotation. He’s averaged better than a strikeout per inning over the past two seasons as well, and in 2019 posted a career-high 12.9 percent swinging-strike rate and 35.7 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone.

Bundy averages just 91.2 mph on his fastball at this point, but his ability to miss bats is undeniable. Drilling down a bit deeper, the spin rate on Bundy’s fastball ranked in the 95th percentile of MLB hurlers back in 2017 and has fallen in the 86th percentile in each of the past two seasons. His slider has generated whiffs at a near-25 percent clip over the past three seasons as well.

All of that said, Bundy’s bottom-line results simply haven’t been that inspiring since establishing himself as a rotation regular in Baltimore. He’s totaled 503 innings dating back to 2017 but pitched to a lowly 4.83 ERA and 4.76 FIP in that time. Home runs have been a particular problem for Bundy, who served up a league-high 41 long balls in 2018.

Bundy did work to counteract that in 2019, throwing fewer four-seamers and more changeups. The resulting 41.5 percent ground-ball rate was the highest of his career, and if he can continue to induce grounders on a more regular basis, he should be aided by an improved infield defense in Anaheim, where Andrelton Simmons and David Fletcher both grade as standouts with the glove. Simply moving away from Camden Yards and the many hitter-friendly parks the AL East has to offer could also shave a few home runs off his total moving forward as well.

From a contractual standpoint, there’s plenty to like about Bundy. He’ll be eligible for arbitration both this winter and next before reaching the open market upon completion of the 2021 season, and he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an affordable $5.7MM salary for the upcoming 2020 season.

The Angels, perhaps more than any team in baseball, have been decimated by injuries in recent years, so Bundy’s average of 29.7 starts over the past three seasons alone surely holds appeal to the Halos. He’ll slot into a rotation mix that features a returning Shohei Ohtani (who should be recovered from 2018 Tommy John surgery), Andrew Heaney and youngsters like Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Jaime Barria and Jose Suarez.

Of course, the Angels are also known to be in the hunt for much bigger fish in free agency this winter, with Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg both rumored to be of interest to GM Billy Eppler and his staff. Other names on the market include Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, and it’d be a rather notable surprise if the Angels didn’t add at least one high-end arm to join Bundy in the updated rotation — be it via free agency or via trade. Given Bundy’s relatively low salary, there’s ample financial room for the Angels to do just that; they’re currently projected to come in around $150MM in 2020 payroll, and their luxury tax considerations are only a bit north of that mark.

Turning to the Orioles’ return, the 24-year-old Mattson, 24 will slot into the upper levels of the Baltimore farm system. He’s not a high-end prospect and wasn’t considered to be among the 30 best minor leaguers in the Angels’ system by either MLB.com or FanGraphs, but he enjoyed a strong 2019 season. A 19th-round pick in 2017, Matttson soared through the Angels’ system with 73 1/3 innings of 2.33 ERA ball and reached Triple-A late in the year. He posted a gaudy 13.5 K/9 mark against 3.3 BB/9 out of the bullpen and went on to post even better numbers in the Arizona Fall League; in 10 2/3 innings of relief in the AFL, Mattson allowed two earned runs (1.69 ERA) on nine hits and three walks with 12 strikeouts. He’s generated average or better ground-ball numbers throughout his minor league tenure and should be a near-term option for the ’pen in Baltimore.

Bradish turned 23 in September and spent the season with the Angels’ Class-A Advanced affiliate after being selected in the fourth round of the 2018 draft. He logged a 4.28 ERA, 10.7 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 while running up a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate in 101 innings. MLB.com ranked him 21st among Angels prospects, praising his four-pitch mix and deceptive delivery but noting that said delivery also leads to control issues.

Both Peek (sixth round) and Brnovich (eighth round) were college arms drafted by the Angels this summer. However, neither pitched following the draft, as the Angels shut both down per an organizational policy for college arms (as noted by MLB.com’s Joe Trezza, on Twitter). Baseball America ranked Brnovich 107th in the draft class and Peek 193rd, while MLB.com ranked both just inside the top 200 (Peek 178th, Brnovich 185th).

The subtraction of Bundy leaves what already looked to be perhaps the worst rotation in baseball in even more grisly shape, although the Baltimore organization has made it abundantly clear that winning games in 2020 isn’t a priority. To the contrary — the Orioles are quite likely gunning for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft as part of what looks to be an Astros-esque rebuild under second-year GM Mike Elias (who was hired out of the Houston organization). The next several seasons won’t be pretty for Orioles fans, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll come out on top of this rebuild like the Astros and Cubs did, but their aim to do so is readily evident.

Orioles Reportedly Working To Trade Dylan Bundy

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The Orioles are trying to hammer out a deal involving right-hander Dylan Bundy, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Whether or not talks are focused with a single team isn’t evident.

It’s a bit difficult to assess just how likely a swap truly is. Feinsand offers the obscure observation that “no deal is imminent, but one appears to be getting close.” It seems at minimum that the O’s are working hard to move the former top draft pick.

Bundy projects to earn $5.7MM in arbitration with one more season of control still to go. That could be a bargain if he can clean some things up. But there’s obviously work to do if Bundy is to reach his ceiling.

On the positive side, Bundy has shown an ability to generate ~12% swinging strikes and about a strikeout per inning. He has averaged about thirty starts per season for three years running. And he’s still just 27 years of age.

The results, though, haven’t been there. Bundy posted a 5.45 ERA in 2018 and a 4.79 mark in the just-completed campaign. He has allowed gobs of long balls and doesn’t carry near the velocity that was once expected — a product, perhaps, of the run of arm troubles that marred his early career.

It’s possible to imagine any number of teams having some level of interest in Bundy. Contenders willing to take a bit of a risk on one rotation spot could have interest, as might rebuilding organizations seeking a combination of reliable innings and upside.

Orioles Notes: MASN, Elias, Bundy

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The Orioles have lost another legal ruling in the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network saga that never ends. As conveyed through an AP report, the New York trial court has reaffirmed its major recent decision upholding an arbitration award in favor of the Nationals, who have sought for years to force the O’s-controlled MASN to pay more for their television rights fees. It’s time for the Baltimore club to pony up some long-awaited payments to its southern neighbor, the court ruled, with interest now running on the balance due. This doesn’t end the matter — the O’s can still pursue recalculation of the profit tabulations, appeal these trial court rulings, and/or fight the next market re-set period — but it does mark another step towards final resolution.

More from Baltimore:

  • Orioles GM Mike Elias chatted with Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun about his first year in charge of the organization’s baseball operations. Elias conveyed broad optimism about where things are headed, while taking every opportunity to caution fans not to expect too much too soon. Process is the name of the game here. “I think the most important thing of this year has been the capabilities of the [baseball operations] department,” he says, though he also noted some player-development strides in the minors and even at the MLB level. Elias warned: “We’re still going to be in a process where it’s possible that we take a step back to take two steps forward at the major league level.” Even once some strides are evident, he noted, “these types of rebuilds don’t always progress linearly.”
  • Trades of veteran players are a potential part of the O’s strategy, of course, which Elias acknowledged. So what of righty Dylan Bundy? Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com looks at that possibility. While the accounting of Bundy’s trade candidacy doesn’t reveal an especially enticing profile, it does highlight an important point about the former first-round pick: despite some ups and downs in the performance department, particularly in terms of controlling the long ball, Bundy has thrown a good number of solid-enough innings over the past few seasons. Teams routinely pay good money in free agency hoping for the sort of 2-2.5 WAR season Bundy just turned in. He’s projected to earn a palatable $5.7MM with one more season of control remaining thereafter. Bundy posted a career-high 12.9% swinging-strike rate last year and only just turned 27, so perhaps there’s still hope there’s more in the tank.

Orioles Notes: Means, Holt, Bundy

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Orioles lefty John Means ascended from 40-man filler to building block in less than a year’s time, and the All-Star rookie sat down with MLB.com’s Joe Trezza to discuss his remarkable season. Candidly, Means revealed that he was expecting to be designated for assignment to clear 40-man space last winter. He’d made an emergency September start, allowing five runs in 3 1/3 innings, and was never considered much of a prospect within the system. Means attributes much of his breakout to a rigorous offseason program with P3 Premier Performance & Pitching, where he was able to boost his velocity, and Spring Training work with minor league pitching coordinator Chris Holt that led to an improved changeup. He’ll return to P3 this winter and spoke with determination when discussing ways in which he can further improve.

“I was never supposed to be here,” said the southpaw. “I wasn’t a first rounder. I wasn’t a prospect. I wasn’t someone who was supposed to do well. So when you have your success, you want to keep it going. That might take you to a certain level, but it won’t take you over the top or over the hump.” In 155 innings this season, the 26-year-old Means logged a 3.60 ERA with 7.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 30.9 percent grounder rate. He’s controlled through 2024.

More out of Baltimore as the gears of a rebuild continue to turn…

  • Speaking of Holt, he’s being promoted from minor league pitching coordinator to the organization’s director of pitching, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. In the new role, he’ll have a much larger impact on the big league club and work more closely with returning pitching coach Doug Brocail. Holt came to the Orioles from the Astros alongside GM Mike Elias last offseason. He previously served as Houston’s assistant pitching coordinator but looks increasingly like a rising influence in his new organization, as Kubatko details. He’ll continue to oversee individualized development plans for the team’s minor league pitchers but will now have input on the MLB arms in a season that figures to see several younger arms emerge at the big league level.
  • Dylan Bundy’s once-blistering fastball has faded early in his career as he’s worked through myriad injuries, but the right-hander spoke with Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun about his plans to continue working through the lost velocity and alter his pitch mix. Bundy cited Zack Greinke as a model he’d like to follow and explained how he began to favor his offspeed pitches more frequently as the season wore on (and, as Meoli notes, as his production improved). Bundy acknowledged plenty of room for improvement in his bottom-line numbers but spoke confidently about his ability to eventually make things work with a lesser fastball. “Now it’s staying healthy and keep learning what I learned this year about the way I pitched now, just continuing to improve,” he said. “…I think if I pitch at 92-93, 91 even, and locate it, use my other pitches, then I’ve been told that the heater plays up because of that other stuff.” Bundy, controlled by the Orioles through 2021, pitched to a 4.79 ERA with 9.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.61 HR/9 and a career-high 41.5 percent grounder rate in 161 2/3 innings this year. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.7MM in 2020.

Pitcher Notes: Scherzer, Bundy, Turnbull, Garrett, Alexander

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With summer storms peppering much of the country today, we’ve got our own torrent of pitcher-related news to sort through. Out of D.C., we hear from MLB.com’s Jamal Collier that Nationals ace Max Scherzer threw 15 pitches off of a mound this afternoon (Twitter link). The superlative hurler has been dealing with inflammation in the bursa sac under his right shoulder blade and hasn’t appeared in a game since a seven-inning win against the Royals on July 6th. That Scherzer is throwing again–and could possibly throw another bullpen on Monday–is a sign that he apparently took well to a recent cortisone shot in his ailing back. Given the notoriously fickle nature of back injuries, the Nats are likely to be over the moon at this positive step in Scherzer’s recovery.

The latest on a few other waylaid hurlers…

  • The Orioles’ Dylan Bundy will apparently come off the injured list as soon as he is eligible, with MLB.com’s Joe Trezza reporting that the righty will start Tuesday in Arizona (link). Bundy, who has never really delivered on the promise that was conferred upon him when he was selected 4th overall in the 2011 draft, has a 5.28 ERA and 5.32 FIP in 92 innings this year. He has been on the shelf since July 13th with right knee tendinitis.
  • Chris McCosky of the Detroit News has reported on separate channels that Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull has suffered a back injury that will usher him to the IL. Apparently, Turnbull, who has put together a quietly effective 2019 campaign, experienced a strain during a workout Friday–a strain that persisted in a post-workout game of catch (Twitter link). In a subsequent piece, McCosky cogently points out that this injury could actually serve as a convenient means of limiting Turnbull’s innings–the 26-year-old was expected to pitch around 140 frames this year and had already logged 98.2 entering the weekend (link).
  • Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that the Reds will welcome back two bullpen stalwarts with the activation of Amir Garrett and Raisel Iglesias from the injured list and paternity list, respectively (Twitter link). Garrett has been sidelined since July 4th with a left lat strain–an injury he presumably incurred from striking out most of the league this season en route to a 13.14 K/9 rate across 37 innings. To accommodate these moves, the Reds optioned righties Jimmy Herget and, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reported, Matt Bowman (link).
  • In concerning news, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has relayed to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com that veteran reliever Scott Alexander has been shut down for foreseeable future with a “nerve and thumb problem” (link). Alexander has been solid in 17-plus innings for Los Angeles this year, but injuries have been a prominent theme. Originally sidelined in June with a forearm ailment, issues with Alexander’s thumb have subsequently followed, and this latest language regarding his nerve is certainly ominous from a medical perspective. The lefty has posted a 3.63 ERA on the season.

East Notes: Thor, Lowe, Bundy, Richard

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The Mets’ struggles have mounted to the point that their general manager acknowledges having “low expectations” for the season’s second half. Despite the organization’s dumpster fire start, their young flamethrower has no hope of going elsewhere. “I love being a Met,” Noah Syndergaard told reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday. “If something were to ever change, it’d be definitely bittersweet just because of New York City itself, the fan base and just the guys in this clubhouse have a special place in my heart.” As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explored yesterday in a ranking of the top 60 trade candidates, the time might not be optimal to move Thor, who comes with two additional years of team control and is currently amidst a career-worst, albeit still more than adequate, season.

As we await the Mets’ next move, let’s check in on some injury notes from the East divisions:

  • Rays infielder Brandon Lowe might not return from the 10-day injured list until the club’s next homestand, which begins Friday against the White Sox, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Lowe, who leads AL rookies with 2.5 fWAR, was placed on the IL July 4 with a right shin contusion, sustained when he fouled a ball off his leg. Lowe’s .276/.339/.523 line isn’t quite sustainable so long as he continues to strike out in a third of his plate appearances, but there’s little question getting his bat back in the lineup will be a boon for a team looking to augment its roster in the coming weeks.
  • While Lowe will take more than the minimum to recover from his injury, Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy hopes to be more fortunate. Bundy was placed on the IL yesterday with right knee tendinitis, but he tells Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter) he’s confident he can return when first eligible on July 23. It’s been more of the same this year for the former fourth overall pick; despite a solid 24% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate, an inability to keep the ball in the yard has Bundy’s ERA above 5.00 for the second consecutive season. Given his performance, he seems unlikely to be much of a trade chip this summer, even if he does return to the field in short order.
  • The Blue Jays announced they’ve placed Clayton Richard on the 10-day injured list with a left lat strain, activating Edwin Jackson from an IL stint of his own in a corresponding move. Richard departed yesterday’s start against the Yankees after just two innings, leaving the bullpen to handle a hefty workload. The IL stint seems to foreclose any chance the Jays can flip Richard before the trade deadline, but he wouldn’t have been in high demand regardless, as he’s managed only a 5.96 ERA with a woeful 11% strikeout rate over ten starts. The 35-year-old is playing out the final months of a two-year/$6MM contract and is likely headed for a minor-league deal this winter.

Orioles Place Dylan Bundy On Injured List

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The Orioles placed starting pitcher Dylan Bundy on the 10-day injured list with right knee tendinitis, the team announced today. Pitcher Tayler Scott was recalled from Triple-A.

Bundy underwent a medical exam this morning after feeling discomfort during yesterday’s shellacking at the hands of the Rays, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Bundy and the Orioles will sleep better chalking this one up to the injury after Bundy suffered through an 8-hit, 7-run barrage in his shortest outing of the year. He was pulled after one inning. The cavalry didn’t fare much better against the Rays, as Gabriel Ynoa wore the damage a day before they’d planned to use him in a piggyback role. Ynoa was ultimately tagged with 9 runs, 7 earned in 5 1/3 innings.

Bundy took the loss, falling to 4-11 on the year. In 18 starts, Bundy has a 5.28 ERA (5.30 FIP) with a 3.03 strikeout to walk ratio while lobbing 2.1 home runs per nine innings. His numbers took a hit with yesterday’s loss, of course, but the overall numbers aren’t far off what the Orioles have come used to seeing out of Bundy.

Scott, 27, is recalled for the first time since being acquired from the Mariners. He made two starts and three bullpen appearances in Seattle, serving up 10 earned runs in just 7 2/3 innings of work. The South African native was a 5th round draft pick of the Cubs in 2011. David Hess, meanwhile, will serve as the 26th man for today’s doubleheader, a role with which he is by now quite familiar.

Mike Elias On Potential Dylan Bundy, Andrew Cashner Trades

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As members of a Baltimore team that isn’t teeming with trade chips, right-handers Dylan Bundy and Andrew Cashner stand out as players who could end up on the move by the July 31 deadline. However, general manager Mike Elias said Wednesday it would be challenging for the Orioles to trade either hurler because of the team’s lack of major league-ready starting depth, as Dan Connolly of The Athletic was among those to cover.

Even if Elias does wind up dealing from the Bundy-Cashner tandem, neither would warrant a return capable of providing a noticeable boost to the Orioles’ farm system. The 26-year-old Bundy’s the more desirable of the two, though, considering his age, cheap 2019 salary ($2.8MM) and two remaining seasons of arbitration eligibility. The former star prospect hasn’t developed into the ace Baltimore’s prior regime wanted when it drafted him fourth overall in 2011, however, having instead settled in as a back-end starter to this point.

Bundy owns a 4.76 ERA/4.88 FIP with a paltry 34.3 percent groundball rate in 88 career starts and 493 1/3 innings. Those mediocre numbers have come in spite of a quality strikeout/walk ratio, as Bundy has fanned about nine batters per nine and walked a bit fewer than three. Bundy’s K/9 has climbed closer to 10 since 2018, yet his velocity has tumbled into the 91 mph range – down from 92-94 from 2016-17 – and home runs have plagued him. Dating back to last year, Bundy has surrendered HRs on 17.3 percent of fly balls. Only three other qualified starters have struggled worse in that department.

Homers haven’t troubled Cashner to any major degree this year, on the other hand. In fact, the 32-year-old is having somewhat of a bounce-back season as he concludes the guaranteed portion of a two-year, $16MM pact. After logging an unsightly 5.29 ERA/5.32 in 153 1/3 frames last year, Cashner has recorded a playable 4.37 ERA/4.62 FIP with 6.12 K/9, 3.06 BB/9 and a 48.5 percent grounder rate in 82 1/3 frames this season. Cashner has also seen his average velocity increase from 92.4 mph to 93.7 since 2018. That said, it has been a bit of an odd season for Cashner in that right-handed hitters – not lefties – have done almost all of the damage against him. He has yielded far more runs the first time through the opponents’ order than the second.

Looking to 2020, Cashner has a $10MM option that will become guaranteed if he throws a combined 340 innings from 2018-19. He’ll come up well short of that mark, so the option’s not a concern to the Orioles or other teams. But Cashner did tell Connolly back in May that he’d at least consider not reporting to a new club if the O’s traded him. That may go down as a moot point, depending on whether Elias is willing to trade Cashner or if teams would even pursue a deal for the well-traveled hurler.

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