Dustin May

Dustin May Undergoes Esophageal Surgery, Won’t Pitch Again In 2024

By Mark Polishuk | July 13, 2024 at 6:43pm CDT

Dodgers right-hander Dustin May underwent surgery earlier this week to fix a tear in his esophagus, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. The procedure will keep May from returning to the field this season, as Passan writes that May won’t be able to partake in any physical activity over the next two months as part of his recovery.

The esophageal tear didn’t occur due to any baseball-related activity, and Passan notes that “May sought medical attention for pain in his throat and stomach,” which eventually led to the surgery. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link) writes that May felt a “sudden pain” while eating dinner earlier this week.

May had yet to pitch in 2024, as he was still rehabbing from a flexor tendon surgery that took place almost exactly a year ago. Unfortunately, this latest injury occurred just as May was nearing a minor league rehab assignment, as he had already been taking part in bullpen sessions and other more advanced ramp-ups. While he still would’ve required a lengthy minor league rehab stint to properly build up his arm, it was expected that May would be back at some point before the end of the season. Returning as a reliever rather than as a starter, for instance, would’ve allowed May to get onto the mound a bit sooner, and he could’ve been a multi-inning relief weapon or an opener for Los Angeles during the playoffs — akin to his usage during the Dodgers’ championship run in 2020.

The 2024 campaign will now go down as a complete wash for May, and the unique nature of this esophageal surgery makes his latest recovery timeline uncertain. Two months of shutdown from all physical activity will entirely reset May’s progress, so between the specific recovery process attached to this surgery and then a traditional ramp-up period, it isn’t clear if May will be ready for Opening Day 2025 or if he’ll yet another lengthy setback in his young career.

The former star prospect has a 3.10 ERA over 191 2/3 Major League innings from 2019-23, showing glimpses of the potential that made him a highly-touted prospect during his time in the L.A. farm system. May started 10 of 12 regular-season games in 2020 before primarily working as a reliever to help the Dodgers win a ring that year, but a Tommy John surgery then limited him to 53 regular-season frames in 2021-22. May threw 48 innings over nine starts in 2023 (with a 2.63 ERA) before the surgeries to fix both his flexor tendon and a Tommy John revision to address a Grade 2 UCL sprain.

While it seems as though May’s career has still yet to fully launch, he turns 27 in September and has only one year of arbitration eligibility remaining before entering free agency following the 2025 season. It is too soon to write off May as a productive and effective pitcher going forward once he recovers from his latest procedure, though three major surgeries in a four-year span is certainly as ominous sign for a pitcher who seemed like he was going to be a cornerstone of the Dodgers rotation this decade.

In the short term, the Dodgers now know they won’t getting any 2024 help from one more of the 12 pitchers on their injured list. The incredibly long list includes more than a rotation’s worth of possible starters, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and Walker Buehler. All of that quartet are expected to return at some point in the second half, while May joins Emmet Sheehan and Tony Gonsolin in the season-ending injury group. (Shohei Ohtani could be considered a 13th “pitcher” out of action, as while Ohtani continues to excel as a designated hitter, the two-way superstar won’t pitch this season as he recovers from his own elbow surgery last fall.)

Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles has been heavily linked to the starting pitching market as the trade deadline approaches, and it would be a surprise if the Dodgers didn’t land at least one extra arm to help solidify this injury-plagued rotation. Losing May might not impact the Dodgers’ leverage all that much in trade talks since it wasn’t clear how May would be deployed or how much he’d pitch when he did return, yet rival teams are bound to try and score a big return to take advantage of Los Angeles’ obvious need for extra pitching.

Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, May, Graterol

By Nick Deeds | June 22, 2024 at 10:35pm CDT

Longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw has been sidelined for the entirety of the 2024 season to this point after undergoing shoulder surgery over the offseason, but recently began a rehab assignment as he eyes a potential return sometime next month. That rehab assignment has already hit a snag, however, as manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) today that the veteran southpaw has felt “a little bit of soreness” in the aftermath of his rehab start for the club’s High-A affiliate in Rancho Cucamonga earlier this week.

That soreness continued today for the veteran lefty when he threw a light bullpen session, and Roberts indicated that the club is considering pushing back his next rehab start- which is currently scheduled for Tuesday- depending on how he feels in the coming days. Kershaw is expected to play catch tomorrow, and how he feels after that session could determine whether or not the Dodgers go ahead with the planned outing. The potential setback is a frustrating one, as a relatively speedy return by Kershaw would be hugely impactful for a rotation that recently lost both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler to the injured list.

Those injuries left the Dodgers to turn to rookie right-hander Landon Knack in the fifth starter role behind Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, and James Paxton. Outside of that group of five, however, the club is lacking in starting depth meaning further injuries could prove problematic for the club. Even setting aside L.A.’s quickly evaporating rotation depth, it’s worth noting that the 36-year-old lefty is almost assuredly one of the club’s five best starters to begin with; after all, the future Hall of Famer hasn’t posted an ERA north of 3.55 since his rookie campaign back in 2008 and managed to put together a 2.46 ERA across 24 starts last year despite playing through shoulder issues.

Roberts also provided more positive injury updates to reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) this evening regarding right-handers Dustin May and Brusdar Graterol. The manager indicated that both pitchers have begun to throw bullpen sessions and called the sessions “promising.” While the timelines for each player’s return are still unclear, Roberts expressed confidence that both would return to action before the 2024 season comes to a close.

May, 26, has had a frustrating MLB career to this point. The righty debuted late in his age-21 season back in 2019 and enjoyed some success over his first two big league campaigns, with a 2.98 ERA and 3.96 FIP in 90 2/3 innings of work, first out of the bullpen in 2019 and then as a member of the rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. May went on to win the World Series with L.A. during the pandemic-shortened campaign while pitching out of the bullpen during the postseason but returned to the rotation in 2021.

Unfortunately, he made it just five starts into the 2021 campaign before undergoing Tommy John surgery and has not put together a wire-to-wire big league season since. While the right-hander has pitched to an impressive 3.21 ERA and 3.59 FIP since the start of the 2021 campaign, he’s also been limited to just 101 innings across 20 starts during that time by the aforementioned Tommy John and a flexor tendon procedure he underwent in last July. It’s not clear whether the Dodgers hope to return May to the rotation upon his return to action or if he’ll be ticketed for the bullpen, but if healthy he figures to be an impactful arm for the club in whatever role he takes on.

As for Graterol, the 25-year-old hurler has been one of the club’s most reliable relievers since he was acquired from the Twins prior to the 2020 season. In 173 2/3 innings of work for the club since then, Graterol has pitched to an exceptional 2.69 ERA with a 3.24 FIP. He’s struck out just 18.9% of batters faced during that time but has generated an extraordinary 62.5% groundball rate as a Dodger while limiting free passes to just a 5.5% rate. Graterol figured to once again factor into the club’s high-leverage plans at the back of the bullpen this year until those plans were scuttled by a shoulder injury during Spring Training that eventually led the club to shut the righty down in late April. Should he return before the end of the season, he’d likely return to the back of the club’s bullpen alongside closer Evan Phillips.

Dodgers Sign Ryan Brasier To Two-Year Deal

By Darragh McDonald | February 8, 2024 at 6:09pm CDT

February 8: Los Angeles announced Brasier’s deal and placed Dustin May on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. The righty is working back from a flexor tendon procedure last July and isn’t expected back until midseason.

February 5: The Dodgers announced they have signed right-hander Ryan Brasier to a two-year deal worth $9MM. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Dodgers were signing Brasier. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first had the two-year, $9MM framework added the possibility for Brasier to earn a total of $13MM via incentives. Brasier is represented by the ALIGND Sports Agency.

Brasier, 36, has had an inconsistent career and that was reflected in his 2023 season. The year began with the Red Sox but he was lit up in his first 20 outings of the year, allowing 7.29 earned runs per nine innings. He likely didn’t deserve such an unsightly number, as his .344 batting average on balls in play and 52.8% strand rate were both on the unfortunate side of average. But his 18.9% strikeout rate was still subpar and the Sox decided to move on, releasing Brasier in May.

He landed a minor league deal with the Dodgers but was added to their roster a couple of weeks later, which gave him the chance to turn his season around. He made 39 appearances for the Dodgers with a miniscule ERA of 0.70. Part of that was a reversal of fortune from the baseball gods, as his BABIP dropped to .183 and his strand rate jumped to 83.3% with his new club. But it wasn’t just luck, as his punchouts jumped to 26.6%, his walk rate dipped from 9.5% to 7% and his ground ball rate climbed from 33.3% to 51.1%. He earned enough trust with the Dodgers to earn a save and nine holds, as well as a postseason roster spot.

That capriciousness didn’t come out of nowhere. Since returning from a stint in Japan by joining the Red Sox in 2018, Brasier has often oscillated between total dominance and apparent struggles. He posted a 1.60 ERA in that 2018 season and continued pitching well through Boston’s World Series run, but then his ERA jumped to 4.85 in 2019. His results improved in the shortened 2020 season but then a left calf strain limited him to just 12 innings in 2021. In 2022, his ERA spiked all the way to 5.78, though that could have been another instance of poor fortune with his BABIP at .335 and his strand rate at 56.2%.

The Dodgers will take a shot on Brasier, banking on the belief that most of his struggles were not of his own doing. In 268 career appearances in the big leagues, he has a 3.88 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 39.8% ground ball rate.

The Dodgers are set to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax in 2024 and have already blown past the top tier with their incredibly aggressive offseason. Thanks to mega deals for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as well as contracts for Teoscar Hernández and James Paxton, their CBT number is now pegged by Roster Resource at $310MM. That’s well beyond the $297MM top tier and comes with a 110% tax rate, meaning the club will be paying more than twice the amount that Brasier will actually receive.

Brasier will jump into the mix for high-leverage relief work with the Dodgers alongside guys like Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and Joe Kelly.

Dustin May To Undergo Season-Ending Flexor Tendon Surgery

By Nick Deeds | July 4, 2023 at 8:33pm CDT

Dodgers right-hander Dustin May will undergo surgery on his right elbow to repair the flexor tendon later this month, per a team announcement. The surgery will bring an end to May’s 2023 campaign. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic adds that May will also undergo a Tommy John revision for a Grade 2 UCL sprain, noting that the Dodgers hope May will be able to return midseason in 2024.

May initially went on the injured list back in May with a flexor pronator strain that offered an initial recovery timeline of just four to six weeks. That, of course, didn’t come to pass. LA placed May on the 60-day injured list less than a week later, a move that suggested the injury could be more significant than the club initially believed and pushed the earliest possible date for May’s return until after the All Star break. Now, the question of May’s return to action will be pushed to the 2024 campaign.

It’s a serious blow to the club’s rotation, as May posted an impressive 2.63 ERA (68% better than league average by ERA+) and a 3.27 FIP in 48 innings of work this season prior to his placement on the IL. May is far from the only arm in the club’s rotation picture who’s struggling with injuries or ineffectiveness, as well. Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard are both on the shelf at the moment, while Walker Buehler and Ryan Pepiot have yet to throw a pitch for the club during the 2023 regular season.

Meanwhile, Julio Urias is coming off a six week trip to the IL of his own and has struggled to a 4.94 ERA and 5.30 FIP in the 11 starts he’s made this season. Tony Gonsolin has mostly pitched well this season, with a 3.69 ERA in 61 innings, but has also spent time on the injured list and owns a 9.42 ERA across his last three starts. Youngsters Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone have been tasked with picking up the rotation’s slack to mixed results; while Miller and Sheehan have largely proven successful, Grove and Stone haven’t done the same. Altogether, the quartet of prospects has posted a 6.01 ERA in 106 1/3 innings this season.

The Dodgers were already widely expected to pursue pitching upgrades ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, and today’s news should only increase the club’s urgency in that regard. It’s hard to say with certainty which players will be available, given the number of teams that have yet to commit to selling. That being said, Marcus Stroman and Drew Smyly of the Cubs, Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals, and Lucas Giolito of the White Sox are among the names that have garnered the most speculation to this point in the season.

Of course, there are plenty of names that would bolster weak Dodgers pitching staff that sports a bullpen ERA of 4.48 (third worst in the NL) in addition to the aforementioned rotation struggles, including relief arms like Reynaldo Lopez of the White Sox and Scott Barlow of the Royals. Considering the club’s 47-37 record that puts them just two games back in the NL West and gives them possession of the second NL wild card spot, the Dodgers are well positioned to make impactful adds to their pitching staff over the next few weeks.

In the longer term, May’s injury leaves an additional question mark for the Dodgers as they look ahead to 2024. The club’s starting rotation is slated to lose Kershaw, Urias, and Syndergaard to free agency this offseason. Buehler (who figures to pitch his first full season back from Tommy John surgery next year) and Gonsolin seem poised to occupy two spots in the club’s starting group.

While it seems reasonable to expect at least one empty slot in the rotation to be dedicated to the club’s current crop of youngsters, that still leaves two vacancies for the club to fill in its rotation for Opening Day 2024, whether that be by way of re-signing one of their outgoing free agents, dipping into the rest of a deep free agent pitching class, or by acquiring an arm controlled beyond this season via trade. Of course, the Dodgers are widely expected to have interest in two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani when he hits the open market after the 2023 campaign comes to an end, but Ohtani has pitched exclusively as a member of a six-man rotation during his time in the majors, meaning his hypothetical addition wouldn’t change the club’s need for additional arms.

NL West Notes: Garcia, Padres, Feltner, Dodgers, May

By Mark Polishuk | May 27, 2023 at 8:03pm CDT

The Padres placed Luis Garcia on the 15-day injured list today, as the left-hander is suffering from a left oblique strain. Righty Domingo Tapia was called up from Triple-A to take Garcia’s spot on the active roster. Garcia has a somewhat misleading 4.66 ERA this season, as nine of his 10 earned runs allowed came in two disastrous appearances (totaling two-thirds of an inning) against the Diamondbacks. Against every other team in baseball, Garcia has allowed just one earned run in 18 2/3 frames.

Despite a few shaky moments, the Padres’ bullpen has largely gotten on track, as San Diego’s relievers have combined for the sixth-best (3.31) bullpen ERA in baseball heading into Saturday’s action. Losing a generally reliable veteran like Garcia won’t help matters, and the team has yet to comment on the severity of the left-hander’s oblique strain, or how long Garcia might be sidelined.

Dodgers Transfer Dustin May To 60-Day Injured List

By Darragh McDonald | May 23, 2023 at 5:40pm CDT

The Dodgers announced that they have officially selected the contract of pitching prospect Bobby Miller, whose imminent promotion was reported a couple of days ago. Right-hander Tyler Cyr was placed on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder impingement, retroactive to May 21, opening a spot for Miller on the active roster. To make room on the 40-man, righty Dustin May was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

May, 25, left his start on May 17 after throwing just one inning. His injury was later announced as a flexor pronator strain that would keep him out of action for four to six weeks and he was placed on the 15-day injured list the next day. This transfer will extend that timeline slightly, as he now will be ineligible to return until the middle of July. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports that May won’t pick up a baseball for six weeks, after which he’ll be re-evaluated and a plan for the next steps will be formulated.

There will still be time later in the year for May to finish strong but 2023 is going to go down as yet another truncated campaign for the talented righty. He’s appeared in each of the five most recent major league seasons but has yet to log even 60 innings in any individual year. He came up part way through 2019 then the 2020 season was shortened by the pandemic. He lasted just five starts in 2021 before Tommy John surgery put him out of action, with May eventually returning to make six starts late in 2022. He was on track for a full and healthy season here in 2023 but is now on the IL again after taking the ball nine times.

Amid all of those frustrations, he has shown his talent with his results. He has a 3.10 ERA in 191 2/3 innings to this point in his career, striking out 22.5% of batters while walking 7.4% and getting grounders at a 49.9% clip. Unfortunately, as mentioned, that has been scattered across five different seasons due to various factors.

The Dodgers will now have to proceed without May for the next couple of months, which isn’t their only rotation challenge. Julio Urías recently landed on the injured list as well, joining depth starters Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot. They are also without Clayton Kershaw for the moment, though he is on the bereavement list and could return shortly. There’s also Tony Gonsolin, Noah Syndergaard, Gavin Stone and now Miller jumping into the fray.

Miller has a 100 mph fastball and is generally considered one of the better prospects in baseball, though he’s off to a rough start here in 2023. He has a 5.65 ERA through four Triple-A starts but had a much better 3.38 ERA in his four starts at that level last year. Both Urías and Grove seem like they will be able to return in the near future, which will improve the club’s depth and give them some decisions to make about who stays and who goes.

Dodgers Designate Dylan Covey For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | May 18, 2023 at 3:45pm CDT

The Dodgers announced today that left-hander Justin Bruihl and right-hander Andre Jackson have been recalled to the club. In corresponding moves, right-hander Dustin May was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm strain and righty Dylan Covey designated for assignment.

The Dodgers have been facing various challenges with their pitching staff in recent days, leading to much improvising. They played a 12-inning game against the Twins on Monday, using six relievers after Noah Syndergaard lasted just four innings. On Tuesday, Clayton Kershaw was also bounced after just four frames, requiring the bullpen to pick up the remaining five.

That led the club to select Covey’s contract yesterday to give the bullpen a fresh arm. It was a good thing that they did, since May had to depart after just one inning with elbow pain. It was later reported that he has a flexor pronator strain and will likely miss four to six weeks, making today’s injured list placement inevitable. Covey stepped in and threw four innings in relief of May, allowing a couple of earned runs on five hits and one walk with three strikeouts. Four other pitchers came in after him as the Dodgers managed to pull off a 7-3 victory.

Despite playing a key role in that victory, Covey has been nudged out of his roster spot as the club was once again facing an exhausted pitching staff and needed some fresh arms. Prior to joining the big league club, he had a 4.22 ERA in 32 Triple-A innings on the year. The Dodgers will now have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He hasn’t really been a major league regular for a few years, pitching in the CPBL in Taiwan in 2021 and 2022, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see some other club express interest given the mounting pile of pitcher injuries around the league. In the event he does clear waivers, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, by virtue of having a previous career outright.

Dustin May Expected To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Flexor Pronator Strain

By Anthony Franco | May 17, 2023 at 8:51pm CDT

Dodgers starter Dustin May left this afternoon’s outing against the Twins after one inning with elbow discomfort. After the game, manager Dave Roberts told the team’s beat that testing revealed a flexor pronator strain in his forearm/elbow area (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).

Roberts called a month-long absence “the floor” for the 25-year-old hurler. As first reported by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link), May will receive a platelet-rich plasma injection. It’s not expected to require surgery, with Ardaya reporting (on Twitter) that May’s ulnar collateral ligament was not affected. Ardaya indicates the team is hoping for a four-to-six week recovery timetable if the rehab process goes as expected.

It’s mixed news for Los Angeles. There’s surely relief that May’s UCL is intact. He underwent Tommy John surgery two years ago, limiting him to 11 combined outings between 2021-22. Renewed ligament damage so quickly after that procedure could’ve raised real questions about May holding up as a starting pitcher. That fortunately won’t be the case.

In the shorter term, though, the Dodgers will now have to navigate at least the next month without one of their top arms. They’ve been without Walker Buehler since last summer’s Tommy John procedure. Depth starters Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove are on the IL; with May joining them, the Dodgers are down to a top four of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Noah Syndergaard.

That’s an excellent top three but Syndergaard has had a rough go in his first season in Dodger blue. The righty has an ERA just under 6.00 through eight starts. He’s showing excellent control but working with a career-low 92 MPH average velocity on his sinker. His 16.5% strikeout rate is a touch worse than last season’s personal-worst mark.

May’s injury seemingly ensures Syndergaard will continue to get regular run out of the rotation. It also presumably sets the stage for the return of top prospect Gavin Stone. The 24-year-old righty made a spot start for his MLB debut two weeks ago. He’s pitched eight times with Triple-A Oklahoma City this year, working to a 4.04 ERA with a quality 27.5% strikeout rate but an alarming 12.8% walk percentage over 35 2/3 frames. Dylan Covey, who soaked up four innings of relief of May this afternoon during his first major league appearance since 2020, has worked out of the Triple-A rotation this year. Non-roster depth options include prospect Bobby Miller and veteran Robbie Erlin.

Dustin May Headed For IL Due To Flexor Pronator Strain

By Darragh McDonald | May 17, 2023 at 5:45pm CDT

5:45pm: Manager Dave Roberts tells reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, that May has a flexor pronator strain. His return timeline is still unclear but May is headed for the injured list. Ardaya adds in a subsequent tweet that May’s ulnar collateral ligament didn’t appear to be impacted in early testing.

3:20pm: Dodgers starter Dustin May departed today’s game after just one inning. Several reporters, including Mike Petriello of MLB.com, noticed that May’s velocity was down from his typical range. The club later announced that the righty departed due to elbow pain.

At this point, it’s still unknown exactly what is bothering May or how severe it is. However, an issue with a pitcher’s throwing elbow is always a cause for some concern, and the diminished velocity and quick hook just add to the sense of alarm.

May, 25, has shown the potential to be an excellent pitcher in the big leagues but has been prevented from taking on a significant workload by the pandemic and Tommy John surgery. He debuted in August of 2019, tossing 34 2/3 innings that year with a 3.42 ERA. He followed that up by tossing 56 innings in the shortened 2020 season with a tiny 2.57 ERA. He then made just five starts in 2021 before having to undergo Tommy John, returning to make six more starts late last year. He had a 2.68 ERA through his first eight starts this year, with today’s truncated outing his ninth time taking the ball.

Amid those interruptions, the 56 innings he threw in 2020 are still a career high. He has an excellent 3.12 ERA dating back to 2019 but in only 190 2/3 total frames over that stretch. He and the club will no doubt do some further testing in the days to come to figure out what’s ailing him and hope that he isn’t slated for yet another significant obstacle in his career path.

If May does end up needing to miss some time, the Dodgers would still be in decent shape, but it would deal another blow to their rotation depth. Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Noah Syndergaard would still give them a solid front four. Syndergaard has a 5.94 ERA on the year but the others are all below 3.65.

Further down the club’s depth chart, Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove are both on the injured list already and don’t seem to be immediate options to jump back to the big league club. Gavin Stone and Andre Jackson are each on the 40-man roster and could be recalled, if necessary. Prospect Bobby Miller is in Triple-A but has an 8.64 ERA through his first three starts there this year and isn’t on the 40-man roster.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

By Darragh McDonald | January 17, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022 season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

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