Drew Pomeranz

Red Sox Unhappy With MLB Decision On Pomeranz Deal

By Jeff Todd | September 16, 2016 at 7:55pm CDT

8:45pm: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has more on the Red Sox’ perspective. Boston became aware of the issues with Pomeranz after conducting an MRI on his shoulder and elbow, per the report, identifying “an injury he was receiving treatment for” that hadn’t been logged.

The club still felt it needed to move forward with the July 14th trade, and evidently didn’t feel the issue was severe enough to scuttle the deal. Still, though, Boston “sought compensation in the form of a player but didn’t succeed,” a source tells Cafardo. It is not immediately clear whether the team pursued that remedy directly with the Padres or through the league in some form.

7:55pm: Red Sox chairman Tom Werner had harsh words today for the decision of the commissioner’s office relating to withheld medical information in the summer trade for lefty Drew Pomeranz, as Tom Caron of NESN reports (Twitter links). (Video link via NESN.)

“We were extremely disappointed in the decision,” said Werner. “We felt that some wrong was committed and that it’s important to have a level playing field. The Padres didn’t play on it.”

After allegations from four teams arose regarding the Padres’ insufficient provision of medical investigation, the league opened an investigation. The league announced a 30-day suspension of Padres GM A.J. Preller yesterday, specifying that it related to the Pomeranz deal, but otherwise did not punish the San Diego organization or provide compensation to the Red Sox.

At the time the investigation itself was reported, indications were that Boston was not seeking any modification of the swap. Another Padres deal was partially unwound, with Colin Rea being traded back from the Marlins to San Diego. But that arrangement was apparently worked out between the teams. Since that time, reports have suggested that the Padres attempted to evade medical reporting requirements, suggesting to their trainers that doing so would help the organization to gain an advantage in trade talks.

It is not known whether the Red Sox specifically sought any particular recompense arising from the Pomeranz-related concerns. And it’s fair to note that Werner did not make clear whether that was the cause for his view on the suspension. Some have suggested that the Padres were handled less harshly in this instance than the Red Sox were recently, and the frustration could stem from that potential disparity. Boston was hit with a signing ban and was forced to give up its rights to several international free agent signees after a finding of a rules violation.

Meanwhile, Padres manager Andy Green defended his organization as well as Preller, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. Insisting that Pomeranz never had any issues of which he was aware, Green went into extensive detail on his view of the situation — which you’ll find in full in Lin’s report. “I see it as that we had all our files in one place and they were not where they needed to be and we accepted responsibility for that and paid honestly a steep price for that,” the first-year manager explained.

At base, Green asserted that there was no “malicious intent to deceive anyone in the process” by the San Diego organization. “There was never this belief that we’re trading anybody that was hurt,” he continued. “There was never this belief that we’re trying to pull one over on the rest of Major League Baseball. … [E]very mistake that’s been made was well-intentioned. Mistakes have been made. We’ve owned them.”

MLB Reviewing Padres’ Medical Disclosures In Recent Deals

By Jeff Todd | August 5, 2016 at 7:03pm CDT

Major League Baseball is taking a look at concerns that have arisen over the medical information disclosed by the Padres in at least two notable trades recently completed by the organization, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports. The swaps in question occurred with the Marlins (centered around Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea) and Red Sox (for Drew Pomeranz).

San Diego, of course, already agreed to something of a do-over in the case of Rea, sending minor leaguer Luis Castillo back to Miami and accepting the return of Rea. The 26-year-old righty departed in the middle of his first start with his new club with elbow issues, and it was just announced that he’ll need Tommy John surgery, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets.

It was reported at the time that the Marlins felt they had been wronged, with San Diego agreeing to unwind that portion of the transaction while insisting on organizational innocence. Olney explains that Rea informed the Miami staff that he had been treated for elbow discomfort in San Diego, which Miami then asserted had not been disclosed.

Now, per the report, it seems that questions have been raised about Pomeranz’s health. Boston parted with highly-regarded pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza to get him, but the Sox now believe they’ve learned elements of Pomeranz’s medical history that ought to have been revealed by the Pads.

Importantly, in the case of Pomeranz, the Red Sox are not seeking any modification of the agreement. It doesn’t appear as if there’s any real ongoing issue there, then, apart from the league’s general review of San Diego’s practices. Olney notes that it’s not clear whether any sanctions could be considered.

As Olney also discusses, these swaps seemingly point to the need for a more formalized process for exchanging medical information between organizations. The question of health disclosures is also under consideration with regard to the amateur draft, and perhaps both discrete but related topics could be on the table as collective bargaining talks continue.

Red Sox Acquire Drew Pomeranz For Anderson Espinoza

By Steve Adams | July 14, 2016 at 11:25pm CDT

The Red Sox and Padres have begun the second half of the season with some fireworks, announcing on Thursday night that Boston has acquired left-hander Drew Pomeranz in exchange for top right-handed pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza, who is widely considered to be one of the 20 best prospects in all of Major League Baseball. Infielder Josh Rutledge moves to the 60-day DL for Boston in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for its new starter.

The Padres acquired Pomeranz, 27, from the A’s this winter for the now-bargain price of Yonder Alonso and Marc Rzepczynski. After talking his way into the rotation mix in Spring Training, Pomeranz has broken out as the ace of the San Diego staff and fulfilled a good deal of the potential that pundits believed him to possess when he was selected fifth overall by the Indians back in 2010. In 102 innings this season, the first-time All-Star has posted a 2.47 ERA with 10.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 47.8 percent ground-ball rate. He’ll immediately slot into the middle of the Boston rotation and can be controlled for another two seasons beyond the 2016 campaign via the arbitration process. Not only does he have two years of club control left, he’s earning just $1.35MM in 2016, which will help to suppress his future arbitration salaries despite this season’s breakout.

While Pomeranz has been dominant in 2016, he doesn’t come without his risks, and chief among them is the limited workload he’s had in recent seasons. Pomeranz spent his early years in Colorado after being included in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade with Cleveland, and his innings totals were suppressed as he pitched poorly much of the time at Coors Field. Oakland deployed Pomeranz in a swingman capacity and utilized him more out of the bullpen than the rotation. Since being drafted, Pomeranz has never thrown more than 146 2/3 innings in a single season between the Majors and Minors combined. That total came all the way back in 2012 and has been followed by single-season innings totals of 112 2/3 (2013), 115 1/3 (2014) and 88 (2015). The Red Sox, however, appear undeterred by the fact that Pomeranz will be approaching uncharted waters in terms of workload as the season progresses into its final months.

The Red Sox have been tied to rotation help for more than a month, as the club’s Opening Day mix of starters has largely underwhelmed. MLBTR’s Jason Martinez noted earlier today in examining the top need of each American League contender that the rotation was far and away the Red Sox’ primary deficiency. Boston starting pitchers rank 19th in Major League Baseball with a 4.72 ERA this season, and only Steven Wright and Rick Porcello have posted earned run averages south of 4.00. David Price has righted the ship after a rocky start to the season but still is sporting a 4.34 mark on the year, while Eduardo Rodriguez has been slowed by injuries and pitched poorly even upon activation from the disabled list. Joe Kelly has been relegated to the Triple-A bullpen, and spot starts from Henry Owens and Sean O’Sullivan have been sub-par, to say the least. Excluding the work of Wright, Price and Porcello, the Red Sox have received a combined 7.22 ERA from the rest of their rotation.

From the Padres’ vantage point, the decision to move Pomeranz wasn’t a clear-cut one. We at MLBTR weighed the pros and cons of dealing Pomeranz and wound up with a split camp among our staff when debating whether the Padres should trade him (a topic that I first examined at length before polling the MLBTR staff for their individual opinions). Pomeranz is both controllable and affordable but also comes with limited innings and a pair of DL stints for shoulder and biceps issues.

While it’s possible that Pomeranz’s value will be even higher come the offseason, the Padres elected to move him now, and in doing so continued down a clear path to an extensive rebuild. Not only that, but the fact that the club focused in on the 18-year-old Espinoza when dealing a pitcher that could’ve provided significant value in both 2017 and 2018 indicates that the Padres may feel that a fairly lengthy rebuild is in order. Espinoza, who rated 14th on today’s midseason top 100 prospect update from ESPN’s Keith Law (ESPN Insider required/recommended), is currently the youngest player in the Class-A South Atlantic League but has held his own in spite of that fact. He’s totaled 76 innings and delivered a 4.38 ERA with a 72-to-27 K/BB ratio and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate against much older competition.

Law notes in his scouting report that Espinoza sits comfortably at 94-95 mph with his heater and can touch 99, and he also features a plus changeup and curveball (with the former representing the better of the two secondary offerings). Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com note that Espinoza repeats his delivery well, which allows him to locate the ball effectively. The MLB.com duo notes that his secondary offerings are much more advanced than those of a typical teenager. Baseball America, who rated him 15th in MLB on their midseason Top 100 list, wrote in the offseason that Espinoza possesses “obvious front-of-the-rotation talent, and makeup and intelligence to maximize his ability.”

The swap represents the second significant trade completed between the Red Sox and Padres over the past nine months, as Boston also acquired Craig Kimbrel from the Friars in exchange for Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen in the offseason. While San Diego GM A.J. Preller has taken his share of flak for the Padres’ ill-fated attempt at an accelerated path back to contention in the NL West, he’s now flipped a pair of assets (Kimbrel, Pomeranz) within a year of acquiring them and received significantly more in exchange than he initially surrendered.

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, meanwhile, has come to Boston as advertised: unafraid to utilize a deep farm system to acquire immediate impact talent at the Major League level in the name of winning now. While the losses of players like Margot and Espinoza sting, the Red Sox likely feel compelled to capitalize on the fact that young stars such as Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley are emerging (or have emerged) as front-line talents, while aging veterans (most notably David Ortiz) are still productive and able to help the club push for a return to the postseason.

Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune first reported that Pomeranz was going to the Red Sox. Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reported (via Twitter) that Espinoza was part of the return. Lin (Twitter link) and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports/MLB.com indicated that it was a straight-up swap of those two players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Among 10 Teams With Interest In Drew Pomeranz

By charliewilmoth and Steve Adams | July 13, 2016 at 5:39pm CDT

JULY 13: As many as 10 teams have reached out to show interest in Pomeranz, Lin writes in an updated piece. Rival executives have suggested to Lin that the Padres are actively looking to move Pomeranz, although he notes that could be a matter of perception as opposed to an accurate representation of the Padres’ genuine interests. Changes to Pomeranz’s pitch mix in 2016 have some scouts convinced that his breakout is sustainable, Lin adds.

JULY 12: The Rangers are interested in Padres lefty Drew Pomeranz and have “done background work” on him, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal also notes that the Rangers have considered many pitchers who seem to be available. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that he hears the same: Texas has indeed kicked the tires on Pomeranz. Lin points out that the Rangers originally drafted Pomeranz as a high schooler, but the lefty elected to go to college rather than sign as a 12th-round pick in 2007. Nonetheless, the Rangers have followed his big league career closely, Lin writes.

Pomeranz has lately been connected to the Red Sox, Orioles and Marlins, and the Padres have reportedly not ruled out dealing him. Two weeks ago, MLBTR’s staff weighed the pros and cons of a Pomeranz deal from the Padres’ perspective, with several MLBTR writers suggesting the Padres should consider keeping him, since he’s under control through 2018 (which means they’ll have opportunities to deal him in the future), and since trade partners might not pay a premium for him given his lack of a track record as a proven workhorse. Given the Padres’ struggles and Pomeranz’s strong season (2.47 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9), though, it’s easy to see why San Diego would at least consider dealing him.

Of course, just because the Padres will consider moving Pomeranz doesn’t mean that they’re actively shopping him. Within Lin’s piece above, he notes that Padres sources have previously told him that Pomeranz won’t be traded for anything less than a “substantial” return. He adds that GM A.J. Preller is quite infatuated with Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, though it’s far from clear that the Rangers would entertain that type of swap. Profar has looked sharp in his return from a pair of season-ending shoulder injuries and is controllable for three years beyond this season, compared to Pomeranz’s two years of remaining control. If Profar is off limits, Preller undoubtedly possesses plenty of familiarity with alternative young talent; the second-year Padres general manager previously spent a decade working in the Texas front office and rising to the rank of assistant GM before being hired away by San Diego.

The Rangers have already reportedly shown interest in rotation options like Jake Odorizzi, Ervin Santana and Matt Moore, so it comes as no surprise that they would look into Pomeranz as well. The team currently has starters Yu Darvish, Derek Holland and Colby Lewis on its DL (although Darvish appears close to returning). The team has lately relied upon rotation options like Kyle Lohse, Cesar Ramos, Nick Martinez and Chi Chi Gonzalez, frequently with poor results.

West Notes: Bregman, Jansen, Pomeranz, Rockies

By Steve Adams | July 12, 2016 at 8:46pm CDT

The Astros are “expected to call up top prospect Alex Bregman as early as this weekend,” reports Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). Bregman, selected with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2015 draft, has obliterated minor league pitching all season long and recently moved up to Triple-A without missing a beat. The 22-year-old is hitting .389/.421/.889 with five homers in eight Triple-A games and a combined .309/.416/.603 with 19 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A this season. The 22-year-old is a natural shortstop but has been playing third base as of late. As MLBTR’s Jason Martinez speculated yesterday in his latest Knocking Down The Door installment, Bregman could slot into third base for the Astros, with Luis Valbuena shifting across the diamond to first base and A.J. Reed moving into a platoon at DH with Evan Gattis. If he does indeed get the call this coming weekend, Bregman would be the first first-rounder from last year’s draft to make his MLB debut and could provide a jolt in the arm of an Astros club that has surged back into both the Wild Card and AL West race.

Padres Won’t Trade Wil Myers; Could Deal Drew Pomeranz

By Connor Byrne | July 9, 2016 at 5:54pm CDT

Although the Padres haven’t made the playoffs since 2006, managing partner Peter Seidler told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times that he isn’t going to rush the franchise’s current rebuild. Seidler acknowledged that the Padres’ future-minded strategy probably won’t begin paying dividends at the major league level until 2019 at the earliest. That strategy has come into focus this year, with the team having outspent every other club on the international market this month.

After signing 10 top international prospects July 2, San Diego added another – 17-year-old Cuban left-hander Adrian Morejon – for a sizable $11MM bonus on Friday. The Padres had already soared past their league-allotted bonus pool by then, meaning that they’ll pay a 100 percent luxury tax on the Morejon signing. As such, they effectively picked him up for $22MM and have now spent in the neighborhood of $60MM on international free agents this year. The Padres’ allocation of international cash is currently, in their judgment, “the smartest place to spend money,” according to Seidler.

“In the context of baseball, it’s two years of Zack Greinke,” he continued. “It’s two years of Clayton Kershaw. For us, we get 20 high-ceiling teenagers. Most of them ultimately are not going to make it to Petco Park. But if four or five of them are impact players at Petco?”

Eventually joining those players in the majors could be several prospects from this year’s amateur draft, in which the Padres had six of the first 85 picks – including three first-round selections.

“This franchise’s history in the amateur draft — as far as having impactful players play for the Padres in the major leagues — is probably as bad as it gets,” Seidler stated. “We have confidence that what we are building is going to completely reverse that.”

Shifting gears to the major league side, the 38-49 Friars have the second-worst record in the NL West and will no doubt look to sell as the Aug. 1 deadline nears. The team has already jettisoned right-hander James Shields and cashed in 39-year-old reliever Fernando Rodney for a prospect, and it hasn’t ruled out trading its best starter of 2016 – lefty Drew Pomeranz – writes Shaikin.

Pomeranz, 27, is making a paltry $1.35MM this season and has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, but the All-Star is scheduled to become a free agent when the Padres’ prospective window of competing, 2019, opens. Given his eminently affordable contract and excellent production – he ranks fifth in the majors in ERA (2.47) and 10th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.15) – Pomeranz could be one of the most appealing players available around the deadline. While the Padres aren’t against selling high on him, the same isn’t true regarding first baseman Wil Myers.

“He’s not going to be traded,” Seidler declared, and executive chairman Ron Fowler told Shaikin that Myers is “the type of guy we want to build this team around.”

As a result, Fowler is hopeful the Padres and Myers, a 25-year-old All-Star, can work out an extension. Myers is earning barely over the league minimum this year and is controllable through arbitration for three more seasons. The ex-Ray and former premier prospect has hit a tremendous .293/.358/.535 with 19 home runs in 371 plate appearances, also adding 15 stolen bases on 18 attempts. Thanks largely to his output at the plate and on the base paths, Myers has already been worth 3.5 fWAR – tied for the 11th-highest total among position players this year.

“The way we’re building this business is really straightforward,” said Seidler. “It’s all about building a core of high-ceiling, home-grown talent. That does go back to the way the best sports franchises in any of the major sports have always been run.”

Myers isn’t homegrown, but he’s clearly a high-ceiling player. And Seidler’s Padres hope Myers and a cavalcade of talented prospects can eventually lead the franchise back to relevance in the coming years.

AL Trade Notes: Twins, ERod, Red Sox Pitching, Hill

By Jeff Todd | July 9, 2016 at 12:25am CDT

Twins GM Terry Ryan says that his organization had “better be open for business, which we are,” as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger reports. Minnesota seems ready to market its trade chips, though it’s still unclear how the club will approach the deadline. Its best pieces, as we just covered in MLBTR’s top trade candidate series, include righty Ervin Santana, utilityman Eduardo Nunez, and relievers Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler. Ryan says he’s willing to consider any type of prospect in its trade discussions, and noted that the organization “wouldn’t be opposed” to paying down some contractual obligations “if you’re getting a good player back and it takes some money to do it.” He did note, however, that the Twins typically don’t hang onto cash when dealing a player.

Here’s more from the American League:

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says that he still has hope that Eduardo Rodriguez can contribute to the team this year, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. That assessment could well have an impact on the team’s approach to the trade deadline. “If people would be looking to say we’re going to be getting someone more talented than Eduardo Rodriguez, it’s not going to happen,” said Dombrowski. “They’re just not out there. They’re not out there and available. Sometimes you’ve got to fix some things internally. We’ll see what happens.”
Regardless of the Red Sox’ views on Rodriguez, the team figures to be in the hunt for at least one rotation arm. As Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reports, Boston has been in touch with the Padres, who could market Drew Pomeranz and/or Andrew Cashner (though the latter had a really rough outing tonight). Also, senior VP of baseball ops Frank Wren is said to have watched both Rich Hill of the Athletics and Julio Teheran of the Braves recently.
Hill has returned from the DL to rave reviews for the Athletics, and both Drellich and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle suggest that widespread interest is building in the southpaw. The former cites the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, and Tigers as organizations that are taking a look at Hill. And Slusser adds yet more teams to the possible mix, listing the Blue Jays, Royals, and Orioles as possible suitors that have been watching him pitch of late. While Hill’s frequent injuries limit his appeal somewhat, there’s an argument to be made that he’s the best pure rental piece available this summer.

Heyman’s Latest: Yankees, Pirates, Teheran, Marlins

By Jeff Todd | June 30, 2016 at 8:45pm CDT

There appear to be different viewpoints in the Yankees front office about how to approach the deadline, Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com writes. GM Brian Cashman may actually be more inclined to sell some assets than is the ownership and upper-level management, per the report.

After a long look at that situation, Heyman goes on to provide some other notes from around the game:

Some within the Yankees think there’s a very good chance that Aroldis Chapman will be around for the long-term, whether that comes about via extension or a re-signing over the winter. Meanwhile, a team official says the price on Andrew Miller is so high that the odds he’ll be dealt are miniscule.
The Pirates could sell off a few short-term pieces if the club isn’t in contention come late July, but a broader sale isn’t expected. Heyman suggests Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, David Freese, and perhaps Tony Watson as plausible trade chips. You could probably also throw names like Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, and Juan Nicasio into the mix as well.
Julio Teheran may be pitching his way out of a trade for the Braves, says Heyman. Rival executives suggest that they see a trade as unlikely, and also gave some endorsement of his value. Heyman cites three who believe Teheran is a better trade piece than Sonny Gray of the Athletics at this stage.
There’s plenty of demand on the starting pitching market, which is perhaps one reason to think that some arms could end up being pried loose. Heyman lists the Orioles, Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers, Rangers, Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners, and Yankees as looking for rotation pieces.
The Marlins are also reputed to be looking for starting pitching, with Drew Pomeranz on the wish list. But a Miami source tells Heyman that the team finds it “hard to trust Pomeranz” given his relatively thin track record.
The Padres “at least took a look” at Jose Reyes before he signed with the Mets, per Heyman. It isn’t clear what sort of opportunity San Diego was interested in offering, but it’s not surprising to hear that the organization is looking for low-cost ways to seek value.

MLBTR Roundtable: Trading Drew Pomeranz

By Steve Adams | June 24, 2016 at 11:04pm CDT

Drew Pomeranz has seen his name creep up in trade rumors over the past week, with various reports connecting him to the Marlins and the Orioles. As I recently did with Julio Teheran (see here and here) — another controllable pitcher that is drawing trade interest but needn’t necessarily be aggressively shopped by his team — I explored the cases for an against a Pomeranz trade yesterday. There’s no right or wrong answer to the debate, of course, and we at MLBTR apparently aren’t able to come to a consensus on the matter. Here’s the second edition of our MLBTR Roundtable series, in which I’ve asked everyone from our staff to weigh in on whether the Padres should hang onto Pomeranz or look to sell high on him this summer…

Tim Dierkes: The Padres should trade Drew Pomeranz this summer. Despite a 3.00 ERA at present, there are concerns. First, he’s walked 11.3% of batters faced this year. No qualified pitcher reached that level in 2015. Pomeranz has still been able to succeed because of a .254 batting average on balls in play, meaning hits aren’t dropping in. Assuming Pomeranz is not the next Chris Young, he can’t maintain that BABIP. Pomeranz’s current skill set will lead to high traffic on the bases and early hooks. Pomeranz is also a 27-year-old who has never reached 150 pro innings in his career and only reached 120 once, in 2012. He’ll be in uncharted waters in late August, and has two career DL stints for shoulder injuries. By trading Pomeranz now, the Padres have a chance to cash in an unreliable asset, however tantalizing this year’s strikeout rate may be. Verdict: Shop him.

Steve Adams: Pomeranz has been terrific this season, but he’s already approaching his innings total from the 2015 season and has never delivered a full season with a starter’s workload. I can’t say with any confidence that I expect him to throw even 170 innings this season, so I can certainly see the argument to sell high at this juncture. However, big league teams likely have similar concerns about his ability to hold up over the life of a full season, and as such he’s probably not going to command an otherworldly return. With such a weak crop of starters on the open market this winter, the Padres would be better off hanging onto Pomeranz and hoping his previous shoulder and biceps issues don’t resurface. Marketing him coming off a full season of strong innings would yield a significantly better return than trading him after 80-100 innings, and if the offers still aren’t great, there’s always next summer, when he’ll have one and a half years of control. I typically advocate for teams in the Padres’ shoes to be willing to part with virtually any player on the roster, but Pomeranz’s value is still rising. Selling too soon in this case is a larger risk to me than the risk of an arm injury or a rapid decline in performance. Verdict: Retain him.

Jeff Todd: I voted in favor of the Braves trading Julio Teheran, but I’m going to edge in the other direction here. It goes without saying that there’s a point at which the Pads should be willing to cut a deal, but I’m generally predisposed to holding here. That opinion is due in no small part to the fact that I expect other organizations to be conservative in valuing Pomeranz — both as a rental and as a long-term asset. ERA estimators take a more conservative view of his good work to date than his bottom-line results would suggest. Indeed, Pomeranz is delivering a mediocre walk rate while benefiting from some good fortune in the BABIP department. And it’s no secret that he lacks a track record as a quality and durable starter. Given that uncertainty, I’d like to see San Diego chase the upside here. While many have noted that Pomeranz relies heavily on his curve, which is true, he’s also increasingly using a change-up that gives him a new weapon against righties. Thus far, he has limited opposite-handed hitters to a .193/.277/.338 slash, which is significantly better than he has fared historically. If he can prove that he’s a mid-3 ERA starter and stay healthy for a full year, he’ll be a sparkling trade piece over the winter — when the rest of the league will be picking over a barren market of starters. (Or, if contention feels within reach, the Pads can hold onto him as a cheap, quality rotation piece of their own.) There’s risk, to be sure, but I think the chance at big-time surplus value is worth it. This just isn’t the same thing as holding onto a hurler who has already full established himself. Verdict: Retain him.

Mark Polishuk: The Padres’ big moves of the 2014-15 offseason have proven to be such a misfire that part of me feels that the club should just totally start over and trade everyone of value (Pomeranz included) for young talent. Overall, however, I’m in the “keep Pomeranz” camp. It wasn’t too long ago that he was considered a top prospect, and it’s probably no surprise that he’s gotten better and better the further he’s gotten from Coors Field (a.k.a. the worst possible place for a young pitcher to break into the majors). Pomeranz has turned into an unexpected find for San Diego, and he comes at a bargain price for now and with substantial team control….unless another team goes overboard with an offer, the Padres should stand pat with him. Verdict: Retain him.

Charlie Wilmoth: I’d certainly consider trading Pomeranz if I were in A.J. Preller’s shoes, but would ultimately lean toward keeping him. Pomeranz isn’t eligible for free agency until after 2018, so there’s no rush to trade him. And while his performance thus far this season has been a bit better than his peripherals suggest, it hasn’t been wildly out of line either, and he should continue to perform well, health permitting. Next year’s crop of free agent starting pitchers is poor, so as long as Pomeranz stays healthy, the Padres should have further chances to reevaluate their situation and deal him later. Keeping him for now would also allow the Padres to prepare for the impending departures of Andrew Cashner (who can depart this winter) and Tyson Ross (who can leave after 2017). One could make some similar arguments about Julio Teheran, who I recently suggested the Braves should strongly consider trading, partially on the grounds that it’s risky for non-contending teams to hold on to established pitchers, who are at perpetual risk of injury. But Pomeranz is not as well established as a starter as Teheran, and therefore not as likely to net a big return. All things considered, then, the Padres should probably keep him for now. Verdict: Retain him.

Connor Byrne: The Padres are bottom dwellers now and they’re highly unlikely to contend before Pomeranz is scheduled for free agency at the end of the 2018 season, so it seems like a no-brainer to shop him this summer. Taking Pomeranz’s cheap 2016 price tag, remaining team control, performance and the paucity of front-end starters expected to go on the block over the next month into account, the Padres should be able to cash him in for a quality return. Plenty of playoff contenders need starters, so an inexpensive 27-year-old who’s top 25 in the majors in K/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP and infield fly rate (and gets an average amount of ground balls) should appeal to multiple clubs with rotation issues. There are questions with Pomeranz – durability, control problems and the fact that he’s succeeding with a knuckle curve as his primary pitch spring to mind – but it’s hard to believe those would scare off every starter-needy team from making a solid offer. If they do, then the Padres could retain Pomeranz and hope he continues increasing his value. There’s no harm in putting Pomeranz on the market prior to Aug. 1, though, and if rebuilding San Diego ultimately nets a package that helps augment its farm system, it would be a major win for the franchise. After acquiring Pomeranz for a pittance over the winter, the fact that the Padres are now in position to auction him off for a potentially appealing return is a boon for A.J. Preller – whose GM tenure is desperately in need of some positive results. Verdict: Shop him.

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With all of that said, let’s turn this one over to everyone else. Let the debate begin! (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

The Cases For And Against A Drew Pomeranz Trade

By Steve Adams | June 23, 2016 at 4:05pm CDT

The Padres’ two-year push to contend in the National League West hasn’t panned out as the new ownership and front office groups had hoped, and the Friars have already begun to sell off pieces (James Shields) with plenty of rumors swirling around virtually every other player on the roster. While Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner were thought to be the team’s top two trade chips in the rotation heading into the season, though, it’s been left-hander Drew Pomeranz that has had generated the most trade buzz as of late. The former No. 5 overall pick is in the midst of a breakout season, having pitched to a 3.00 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. His 3.44 FIP and 3.64 xFIP are both within the Top 25 among all MLB starters, and SIERA rates him 31st — just ahead of Zack Greinke and just behind the likes of Masahiro Tanaka, Kenta Maeda and Taijuan Walker.

Suffice it to say, Pomeranz has been one of the better starters in all of baseball this season, and as such the Padres should be able to fetch a much stronger return than the package they parted with to acquire him (Yonder Alonso, Marc Rzepczynski). Still, it’s not entirely clear that the Padres should be open to moving him at all. Let’s look at the issue from both angles.

The Case For Trading Drew Pomeranz

Simply put, the Padres aren’t a good team in 2016. Moreover, they don’t have an especially strong farm system. The Padres added some talent to their ranks with last season’s Craig Kimbrel trade, and they had one of the largest pools in this year’s amateur draft as well. Beyond that, they’re rumored to be gearing up for a hyper-aggressive run on the international prospect scene when the 2016-17 signing period kicks off on July 2. General manager A.J. Preller and his staff are in talent acquisition mode, and marketing Pomeranz — a former top draft pick and top prospect with two years of team control beyond 2016 — could further bolster their minor league system.

Pomeranz, after all, is earning just $1.35MM after his first trip through the arbitration process due to the fact that his pre-arb seasons consisted of struggles with the Rockies at Coors Field and success in a limited role in Oakland, where he served as a swingman. That price means that any team can afford to add him to its books, and it also figures to suppress his earning power for his second and third trips through the arbitration process. Pomeranz’s pedigree, low salary and remaining control should all make him appealing to clubs in search of pitching, and we’ve already seen the Orioles and Marlins linked to him this week alone.

Advocates of a Pomeranz trade for the Padres could consider this to be selling high. He’s already nearly matched his innings total from 2015, he’s spent time on the disabled list in the past with shoulder and biceps problems, and as the team has learned with Ross this season, waiting to move a pitcher with injury concerns can have a disastrous outcome. Ross has still only pitched in one game with the Padres this season. A healthy Ross would be among the most in-demand chips on the summer market, but the Padres would be selling him for pennies on the dollar right now. Cashing in while Pomeranz is healthy and performing well has its merits, to be sure.

The Case Against Trading Drew Pomeranz

Those same concerns surrounding Pomeranz’s injuries and workload could limit other teams’ willingness to part with top-tier talent to acquire him, however. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune recently spoke to a few scouts about Pomeranz and one NL scout suggested that the lefty would fetch a “limited return” due to skepticism surrounding his lack of a track record. While that’s just one scout’s opinion, of course, it speaks to the fact that there are those in the game that aren’t necessarily sold on Pomeranz as a concrete option to fortify the top half of a rotation.

The fact that he’s controllable through 2018, too, means that the Padres don’t need to be in a rush to trade him. Even if Pomeranz gets hurt in August, he’d have plenty of time to reestablish value in the first half of the 2017 season. And, if he’s able to remain healthy and productive, his value will only grow. There’s a complete dearth of quality arms available in free agency this winter, and it’s certainly not a stretch to say that the Padres could get a greater return if they’re marketing a full season of strong work from Pomeranz in a barren pitching market than they could by marketing half a season of strong innings. Trading him next summer could create even greater value if Pomeranz can sustain his breakout pace, as he’d still come with one and a half years of control at a reasonable salary.

Additionally, the Padres simply need quality arms for the foreseeable future in their rotation. San Diego isn’t teeming with quality rotation options. Ross is a question mark at this point, and lefty Robbie Erlin was lost to Tommy John surgery earlier this year, making him an unknown in 2017 as well. Cashner is a free agent in three months’ time and may or may not return. Beyond Pomeranz and Ross, the Padres’ rotation options in 2017 include Colin Rea, Erik Johnson, Christian Friedrich, Cesar Vargas, Rule 5 pick Luis Perdomo and perhaps Brandon Maurer if San Diego again wants to experiment with him as a starter. There are some additional options at Triple-A (e.g. Michael Kelly, Bryan Rodriguez), as shown on the Padres’ depth chart, but all of the starters ranked among the Padres’ Top 30 prospects at MLB.com come with an ETA of at least 2018 — and many aren’t projected to factor into the Majors until 2019.

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