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Rosenthal’s Latest: Astros, A’s, Indians, Phillies

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If the Astros don’t recover from their 17-26 start, they could become interesting sellers as the trade deadline approaches, says FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link). As pending free agents at season’s end, outfielder Colby Rasmus, right-handers Doug Fister and Scott Feldman, and catcher Jason Castro could all be on the move. Center fielder Carlos Gomez’s deal is also set to expire, though his value is close to nonexistent at the moment, according to Rosenthal. Gomez has rapidly fallen from grace since the Astros surrendered a handful of youthful pieces for him and righty Mike Fiers at last year’s deadline. Thanks to both that trade and the offseason acquisition of reliever Ken Giles, the Astros have lost several young players and could replenish their system this summer by moving at least some of the aforementioned veterans.

More of the latest rumblings from Rosenthal:

  • Athletics lefty Rich Hill, third baseman Danny Valencia and reliever John Axford are all potential deadline chips, reports Rosenthal. The only member of the trio unsigned beyond this season is the 36-year-old Hill, who is on a $6MM salary and has performed like an ace since his red-hot September with Boston in 2015. Valencia is currently making $3.15MM and has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, and he has been quietly spectacular going back to last season. Over his past 475 plate appearances, Valencia has slashed .302/.352/.531 with 24 homers. With third base prospect Matt Chapman waiting in the wings, the A’s could sell high on Valencia, per Rosenthal. Axford, meanwhile, has gotten solid results in 18 2/3 frames this year (2.89 ERA) while recording a career-worst strikeout rate (5.79 per nine) and a personal-best walk rate (1.45). He’s making $4.5MM this season and is set to rake in another $5.5MM in 2017.
  • The Indians could try to upgrade their bullpen by acquiring a left-hander or a dominant late-inning arm, but two factors are working against them: Other contenders will be in the hunt for similar help, and the Indians are “notoriously cautious” when discussing trades.
  • The Phillies are prepared to deal right-hander Jeremy Hellickson if a solid offer comes along, though they’re also focused on limiting the innings thrown by some of the younger members of their rotation. Thanks to Charlie Morton’s season-ending injury, the 28-year-old Hellickson is now the elder statesman of a Phillies rotation that has been among baseball’s best in 2016. Hellickson, who’s on a $7MM salary and is scheduled to become a free agent at season’s end, has put up a 3.99 ERA to accompany significantly improved strikeout and walk rates (9.06 and 2.36, respectively) in 49 2/3 innings this year.

AL Notes: Astros, Alburquerque, ERod, Tazawa, Castro

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Astros GM Jeff Luhnow addressed a variety of issues today with Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. He suggested that the club’s first base mix may not be fully resolved this spring, with the organization remaining open to making changes over the course of the season. He made clear that Houston won’t just be relying on metrics in reaching its decisions, but is paying close attention to how the various contenders look against advanced competition this spring.

  • Meanwhile, Luhnow said, the Astros’ back-of-the-rotation competition may result in some bullpen time for one of Doug Fister, Scott Feldman, or Mike Fiers. But he emphasized that he expects “all three guys are going to end up making a lot of starts for us this year.”
  • The Angels are hoping that reliever Al Alburquerque will be able to bounce back after a tough 2015, and improved health is one reason for optimism, as MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports. Albuquerque says that he was hobbled for all of the spring and much of the regular season last year after contracting the Chikungunya virus over the winter. His fastball velocity steadily increased over the course of the year, and Albuquerque says he feels “much better” in camp.
  • The Red Sox now seem all but certain to go without young lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to open the year, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports. Though the swelling is down in his right knee, Rodriguez still hasn’t returned to the bump and manager John Farrell says there’s “still no time frame or date to get him on the mound yet.” With the club obviously exercising caution, and a full ramp-up still needed, it would appear to be surprising if he’s able to join the 25-man roster on Opening Day.
  • In other Red Sox pitching news, Boston is hoping that the decision to shut down reliever Junichi Tazawa late last year will help him regain his form in 2015, as Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. Generally a highly reliable pen arm, Tazawa seemingly hit a wall late last year. Now, pitching coach Carl Willis says he sees improved “late action to his pitches,” cleaner mechanics, and better location. The 29-year-old’s ability to bounce back will not only be important to the club, but will also determine his market standing when he qualifies for free agency after the season.
  • Reversing its prior stance, the Yankees don’t intend to prepare Starlin Castro to spend any further time at third base this spring, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. He’ll instead focus on settling in at second base and preparing to serve as the reserve shortstop, says manager Joe Girardi. As King notes, that could open up some additional opportunity for Rob Refsnyder to make the team as a utility piece.

Doug Fister Looks To Rebound With Astros

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This winter, Doug Fister’s free agency lasted longer than most.  The right-hander was linked to a number of teams but, after waiting things out, he inked a one-year, $7MM deal with the Astros which could reach $12MM through incentives.  After an exceptionally strong 2014, Fister followed up with a disappointing 2015 which saw him relegated to the bullpen in Washington.  At the outset of free agency, observers really weren’t sure about what kind of deal Fister would land.  The pitcher says he had no idea, either.

Doug Fister (vertical)

“No, I really didn’t know what kind of contract I would get.  I kind of took the mindset that would all take care of itself,” Fister said after tossing a pair of scoreless innings in his 2016 Spring Training debut.  “I have a great agent [Page Odle, PSI Sports Management] and I leaned on him…I realized that I’ll just be where I’m going to be and I’m truly blessed to be a part of this clubhouse.  We’ve got a great team.  I can’t stress that enough.”

Fister drew varying degrees of interest from teams like the Mariners, Yankees, Marlins, Tigers, and even today’s opponent — the Phillies.  The Astros came to Fister with the right contract, and they also sold him hard on spending a year in Houston.

“I spent some time on the phone with [manager] A.J. [Hinch] and [GM] Jeff [Luhnow],” Fister explained.  “I got to know them more on a personal level, and it was almost like a job interview, really.  But they have that desire to win.  They have that fire.  The guys here got a taste of the playoffs last year, and they want to get back there.  They have that fire, that desire, and that’s what we play this game for.”

Last season was surely frustrating for Fister, but he termed the rocky year as a “learning experience.”  Ultimately, though, he refuses to complain and he says that he is embracing the challenge of reasserting himself as a starter this year.

After several strong years in Detroit, he enjoyed one of his best seasons with the Nationals in 2014.  Unfortunately, injury issues slowed him down at the outset of the season, but he performed better when he was moved to the bullpen.  The 32-year-old has a singular focus on getting back to the starting five, but after last year’s experience, he knows that he can pitch in relief again if he is ever asked to do so.

“Every starter has a routine, and I had to kind of break that up and tell myself that I have to pitch every day,” said Fister.  “I told myself that if the time comes later in my career where I have to pitch out of the bullpen, I know that I can do that.  At the same time, I know that starting is in my heart and that’s where I wanted to be this offseason.  It’s only two weeks into the spring but I’m definitely where I want to be.”

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Offseason Moves, Moreland, Nats, Story

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ESPN’s Jayson Stark polled a vast number of executives to get their take on the offseason’s dealings. Stark asked execs to name the most-improved and least-improved clubs from each league, the best and worst free-agent signings and trades as well as the most outrageous contract issued this winter (among other categories). The D-backs and Red Sox were runaway winners in the “most-improved” category in the NL and AL, and Stark notes that a common refrain was that this type of hyper-aggressive offseason for the Diamondbacks was “hard to fathom.” Zack Greinke and David Price top the list of best free-agent signings in Stark’s poll, which I find rather curious, as each was a record-setting agreement for players, with Price landing the biggest deal ever for a pitcher and Greinke setting his own record in terms of average annual value. (I’d have figured more execs would’ve been down on the overwhelming risk that accompanies each deal.) The next two names on the list — Ben Zobrist and especially Howie Kendrick — are more in the line with the type of “value” signings one would expect to draw praise from executives. Other categories from Stark include best one-year deal — where, interestingly, Yoenis Cespedes received four votes due to the fact that few believe there’s any realistic chance of him opting into the final two years of his deal — best signing for $3MM or less and best minor league signing. The whole piece is a fun read for those who track offseason dealings carefully.

A few miscellaneous notes from around the league…

  • Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland revealed today that he played the final two months of the 2015 season with a stress fracture in his left foot, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. Moreland believed the stress fracture stemmed from alterations he made to his foot positioning following 2014 ankle surgery, but he’s healed up now and ready to go for the 2016 campaign. The exact date that the injury crept up isn’t specified, but Moreland’s .269/.326/.425 batting line from the season’s second half, while solid in its own right, pales in comparison to the .286/.333/.532 line he posted prior to the All-Star break. Additionally, Moreland describes a spur-of-the-moment meeting that he initiated with assistant GM Thad Levine the night before his arbitration hearing was scheduled, during which the two talked for about 90 minutes and resolved the matter themselves.
  • James Wagner of the Washington Post examines what might’ve been had Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister accepted extension offers from the Nationals when they were made. Desmond somewhat famously rejected a contract said to be seven years and $107MM, although as Wagner points out, that’s a bit misleading due to the fact that Desmond’s two-year, $17.5MM deal that covered the 2014-15 seasons was folded into that value, and the extension (unsurprisingly, in light of this offseason’s happenings) came with deferred money. Zimmermann received an extension offer of $105MM over five years and was narrowly able to top that in free agency, Wagner notes. (He doesn’t list specific numbers in reference to a Fister extension offer.) While the Nats hoped to extend all three players at one point, their absence now clears the way for players like Joe Ross, Tanner Roark and Trea Turner as well as offseason addition Daniel Murphy, in some regards.
  • Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes is expected to be suspended under MLB’s domestic violence policy at some point before the season begins, and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that manager Walt Weiss indicated that shifting DJ LeMahieu (who inked a two-year deal with Colorado earlier today) over to shortstop is not a consideration. LeMahieu was a shortstop for much of his minor league tenure but has developed into a very sound defender at second base, so it stands to reason that the Rockies don’t want to alter his routine with a temporary position change. Rather, Weiss said that well-regarded prospect Trevor Story is in the mix for playing time in the very likely event that the team is without Reyes. All of this, of course, could have some impact on the aforementioned Desmond, who just yesterday was linked to the Rockies by FOX’s Ken Rosenthal.

Cafardo On Lincecum, Lucroy, Fister

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The Giants are just about done with making offseason moves, GM Bobby Evans tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  Evans has been monitoring free agent Tim Lincecum, but he doesn’t anticipate a reunion since the team already boasts a star-studded starting five.  Cafardo raises the idea that Lincecum could be in store for a bullpen role in 2016, but Evans’ comments make it seem as though that won’t take place in San Francisco.

Before being shut down midway through the season, Lincecum had posted a 4.13 ERA, although with a 7.1 K/9 and a high 4.5 BB/9 that were even less impressive than that modest ERA figure. His average fastball velocity also fell from 89.6 MPH in 2014 to 87.2 MPH. Lincecum will probably be forced to settle for a one-year deal as he looks to come back from hip surgery entering his age-32 season.

Here’s more from today’s column:

  • “A few baseball folks” tell Cafardo that they get the sense something is brewing with Milwaukee catcher Jonathan Lucroy.  The Brewers backstop has a limited no-trade clause, but teams such as the Astros and Nationals could have interest in adding a top catcher like Lucroy.  The veteran isn’t coming off his best season, but his highly contract still makes him an attractive trade target. Lucroy is set to earn just $4MM in 2016 and $5.25MM (or a $250K buyout) in 2017.
  • A few teams had concerns about the medicals on Doug Fister, one NL team official told Cafardo. Fister got a one-year, $7MM deal from the Astros, but some teams thought they could get him on a minor league deal.  Fister, soon-to-be 32, could be a bounceback candidate for Houston. After several strong years in Detroit, he put up a stellar 2.41 ERA over 164 frames in 2014, his first season with the Nationals. But things went south last year, as he dealt with injury issues and lost his rotation spot after he was tagged for a 4.60 ERA and .302/.341/.471 batting line in 15 starts.
  • One NL scout tells Cafardo that free agent shortstop Ian Desmond should move to third base. “I think he would be excellent there,” said the scout. “He’s a shortstop who probably doesn’t have the great range, but he’d be very good at third. He’s a great kid in the clubhouse who works hard. At some point, there has got to be a team, maybe one who has a pick at the end of the first round, who’d give that up for a guy like this.”  As the former All-Star continues to sit on the open market, some have wondered if a deal could be possible with the Rays.
  • Mat Latos remains on the open market in part because of a perceived attitude problem.  One NL official believes that he needs some discipline to stay in line.  “You would need a strong manager to keep him in line and acting the way you want him to act. A Buck Showalter, a Bruce Bochy, a Dusty Baker. The guy really competes, but he just gets too outspoken for his own good,” the official said.

AL Notes: Vogt, Fister, White Sox, Moustakas, Plouffe, Royals

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Athletics catcher Stephen Vogt will likey miss four to six weeks after elbow surgery, MLB.com’s Jan Lee tweets. He is still expected to be good to go for the start of the season, though he’ll be delayed in getting going this spring.

Here are a few more notes from around the American League:

  • Doug Fister’s MRI with the Astros did not gum up the deal, but nevertheless showed some cause for concern, Houston GM Jeff Luhnow said today on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter links). “There is some risk, but we’re confident he’s going to be healthy this year,” said Luhnow.
  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn made clear today that the team feels urgency to win, as Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com reports. Hahn acknowledged frustration that “we haven’t been able to convert on any [free agent] targets,” as CSNChicago.com’s Dan Hayes reports, but told fans that “there still is the possibility we are going to have changes before camp or Opening Day.”
  • Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas says that his representatives have talked to the club about a two-year contract arrangement, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports on Twitter. “I think it’s extremely important ,” he said. “We are blessed with some very unique, special talent on this roster right now.”
  • Coming into the winter, Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe seemed a plausible trade piece, but we never heard much buzz on that front. Minnesota GM Terry Ryan tells Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) that the club did not consider scenarios for a deal — let alone make Plouffe available to other clubs.
  • The Royals’ many successes have led many to point to their outstanding pen as a model of sorts, and ESPN.com’s Jayoson Stark (Insider link) explains that it has helped drive the idea of relying heavily on a relief corps. But the rise of the importance of the relief pitcher has other, deeper causes, Stark argues.

Astros Sign Doug Fister

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The Astros have announced the signing of righty Doug Fister to a one-year deal. The PSI Sports Management client will receive a $7MM guarantee in the contract, which includes incentives that can boost its total value to $12MM, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.

Heading into the winter, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a one-year pact in the $10MM range for the towering right-hander. While he falls shy of that, in terms of guarantee, Dierkes rightly pegged Houston as the landing spot.

Aug 30, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Doug Fister (33) pitches during the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

It’s easy to see the appeal for an Astros club that has plenty of rotation options, but still carried some uncertainty. Fister will presumably slot in toward the back of a staff fronted by Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh. It’s not exactly clear how things will line up otherwise, but the depth looks solid. Youngster Lance McCullers Jr. showed so much promise last year that it’s hard not to imagine him in the rotation. Scott Feldman is still facing some injury uncertainty after he was shut down late last year, though he says he’s healthy. And Mike Fiers had good results upon joining Houston, including a no-hitter, though he also could feature as a high-end swingman.

Fister, who’ll soon turn 32, is a classic bounceback candidate. After several strong years in Detroit, he put up a stellar 2.41 ERA over 164 frames in 2014, his first season with the Nationals. But things took a turn south last year, as he dealt with injury issues and lost his rotation spot after he was tagged for a 4.60 ERA and .302/.341/.471 batting line in 15 starts.

Though he showed better form working out of the pen, there are some concerns that extend beyond the results. Fister has never been reliant on velocity, but his average sinker lost 1.7 ticks in dropping all the way to 86.1 mph in 2015. Typically a reliable groundball producer, Fister induced grounders on just 44.6% of the balls put in play against him.

Fister also allowed home runs at a much higher rate than usual in his final season in D.C. And while he’s never been a strikeout pitcher, his 5.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 represented the worst K:BB ratio he’s logged since his debut season. Advanced metrics have always lagged results for the veteran, but they were especially down on him last year. He ended up with a 4.55 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA to accompany the 4.19 ERA that he tallied over his 103 total frames.

Of course, Fister battled through a forearm strain to open the year, which could go a long way towards explaining his struggles. If he can build up in camp at full strength, it isn’t hard to imagine that he might return to being a quality rotation piece — even if it would be a bit optimistic to expect a repeat of that 2014 effort. While he hasn’t always put up huge innings tallies, Fister has generally been rather durable over his career, and the Astros will surely hope he can fill up some frames with average-or-better run prevention numbers in 2016.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cafardo’s Latest: Blue Jays, Fister, Hanrahan, Parnell, Latos

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Here’s the latest from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

  • Former Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos (who’s now with the Dodgers) believes his old team is going to be “really good” next season, Cafardo reports. Anthopoulos points out that, in addition to midseason additions like David Price, one key for the Jays down the stretch last year was that Troy Tulowitzki’s addition and Jose Bautista’s recovery from injury allowed them to field a better defense. That’s an improvement they should be able to at least partially retain in 2016, Anthopoulos believes.
  • The Astros have been considering signing Doug Fister to help fill their rotation, Cafardo writes. He notes that the Astros do want another starter, but are “looking for a bargain.” (They’ve also recently been connected to Yovani Gallardo.)
  • Former closer Joel Hanrahan is attempting another comeback and could be ready for Spring Training. Last we heard, it was unclear whether Hanrahan would resume pitching before 2017, but it appears the former Pirates closer is determined not to let his recovery from second Tommy John surgery hold him back.
  • Another reliever whose career has been derailed by injuries, former Met Bobby Parnell, remains a free agent, and some scouts believe he could be a good addition to some team’s bullpen. “He’s someone a team could easily take a chance on and hope he regains that power he once had,” says one. Parnell had Tommy John surgery early in the 2014 season and never got untracked in 2015, throwing less hard than he had in the past and struggling with more arm issues. His velocity had returned by the end of the season, though, which might be a good sign for his future.
  • Mat Latos remains on the open market in part because of the perception that he isn’t an especially good teammate, Cafardo suggests. (That perception might have something to do with interviews like this one, in which Latos is unusually candid about his former Reds teammates, the Reds training staff, and what he perceives as a slight by a former GM.) Latos will probably end up having to take a one-year deal.

AL East Notes: Ramirez, Castillo, Pearce, Desmond, Fister

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Red Sox players and personnel are keeping close tabs on Hanley Ramirez this winter, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Last year, the former shortstop failed spectacularly in his first season as an outfielder. At times, observers questioned Ramirez’s commitment to improving defensively. The club now plans to use him as the starting first baseman where he’ll be involved much more often than last year. It’s viewed as an easy defensive position but that can be misleading. While it’s true first base demands less raw athleticism than other skill positions like shortstop, it’s a highly technical position and requires precise footwork. Boston hopes to rebound from a cellar dwelling season, and their hopes depend on Ramirez.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Boston outfielder Rusney Castillo believes he has made critical adjustments in preparation for 2016, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Castillo felt fatigued last season and has adopted a more rigorous training program this winter. He’s also tinkered with his swing to make it a bit shorter to the ball. Theoretically, that will help his contact rate.
  • Steve Pearce’s signing with the Rays didn’t drive headlines like Yoenis Cespedes, but he’ll fill an important role in 2016, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Pearce will split time between first base and designated hitter. He won’t be a pure platoon bat despite a history of better numbers versus lefties.
  • Lack of movement in Ian Desmond’s market has increased the possibility of a “pillow” contract with the Rays, suggests Topkin. Desmond is a Sarasota native which could be a lure. He’d represent a meaningful and highly visible upgrade to the Rays current roster. Brad Miller projects as the starting shortstop, but he could move to an outfield or utility role.
  • Also per Topkin, in trade talks with the Cubs and Rockies, the Rays are focused more on Javier Baez and Corey Dickerson than Jorge Soler or Charlie Blackmon. Tampa Bay is shopping Jake McGee and starting pitching. Based on past rumors, Chicago and Colorado could be interested in either or both assets.
  • Doug Fister could be a smart target for the Orioles, opines Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. Dan Duquette has already said the club prefers to hang onto its first round draft pick. It would have to surrender that pick and perhaps $50MM to sign free agent Yovani Gallardo. Fister, meanwhile, has had a slightly superior career, would cost about $22MM total over two years,  and didn’t receive a qualifying offer. Of course, there’s a reason why Fister is so much cheaper – he dealt with injury during a rough 2015 campaign. If the O’s stay in house, Melewski sees Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Vance Worley, and Chris Jones as rotation candidates.

Duquette: O’s Unlikely To Surrender Draft Pick For Free Agent

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The Orioles have been connected to free-agent right-hander Yovani Gallardo for much of the winter, but general manager Dan Duquette said today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio that the team’s preference is to retain its first-round pick — the No. 14 overall selection (links to Twitter). Asked by Jim Bowden about Gallardo, specifically, Duquette replied, “The question for us is ’Are we willing to give up our first-round pick?’ and so far that answer has been no.” Speaking more generally about free agents tied to draft pick compensation, Duquette said, “I think we’re going to hang onto that pick.”

Plans can, of course, change in the event that the asking price of Gallardo comes down, but Duquette’s comments would be a blow to Gallardo’s market, as the right-hander hasn’t been connected to a large number of teams of late. The Orioles and Astros have been the two most frequently mentioned club’s in connection to Gallardo, although his representatives will reportedly meet with the Rockies soon. The Blue Jays have also at least checked in on Gallardo, although there’s no indication that their interest extends beyond due diligence at this point.

Duquette’s comments would also rule out Dexter Fowler, and while the switch-hitter hasn’t been concretely linked to Baltimore, he did appear to be a speculative fit in the outfield (as Jeff Todd and I discussed on yesterday’s MLBTR Podcast). Ian Desmond and Howie Kendrick are the other two remaining free agents that rejected qualifying offers, although neither has a clear fit on the Baltimore roster anyway, due to the presence of J.J. Hardy and Jonathan Schoop.

Furthermore, Bowden adds (links to Twitter) that Duquette confirmed some interest in Doug Fister but said the Orioles are not in the mix for free-agent lefty Cliff Lee. “Fister is interesting, bounceback candidate,” said Duquette. “I can’t say we’ve made an offer, but we’ve been monitoring his market.” Fister is said to be eyeing a two-year deal worth a total of $22MM, but the Orioles are said to be uninterested at that price. As for Lee, he’s looking for a one-year deal this season if he pitches at all; his agent recently told MLB Network Radio that Lee would need a “perfect fit” in order to make a comeback attempt, though it’s not clear exactly what would constitute that fit.

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