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American League Non-Tenders: 11/22/24

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7pm CT. Here’s a rundown of the players on American League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month. All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency, where they’re eligible to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.

Onto the transactions…

  • The Angels announced that they have non-tendered left-hander Patrick Sandoval, infielder Eric Wagaman, as well as outfielders Jordyn Adams and Bryce Teodosio. You can read more about those moves here.
  • The Astros tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Athletics announced that they did not tender a contract to right-hander Dany Jiménez, who was projected for a $1MM salary. He posted a 4.91 in 25 appearances for the A’s in 2024. He struck out 21.4% of opponents but gave out walks at a 16.2% clip.
  • The Blue Jays are planning to non-tender righty Dillon Tate, per Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link). Tate was just claimed off waivers at the start of September and had a projected salary of $1.9MM. He’s a former fourth overall pick with some good numbers in his career but he missed most of 2023 due to injury and then posted a 4.66 ERA in 2024. The Jays are also non-tendering righty Jordan Romano, which you can read more about here.
  • The Guardians have non-tendered outfielder George Valera and right-hander Connor Gillispie, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com (X link). Both players were designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Mariners are going to non-tender outfielder Sam Haggerty, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). He was limited to just eight games in 2024 due to a torn achilles. He was only projected for a salary of $900K but the M’s have decided to move on. They also non-tendered infielder Josh Rojas and righties Austin Voth and JT Chargois, moves that are covered with more depth here.
  • The Orioles plan to non-tender right-hander Jacob Webb, per Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link). Webb was projected for a salary of $1.7MM next year. The righty tossed 56 2/3 innings for the O’s in 2024 with a 3.02 ERA and 24.5% strikeout rate, but an 11.4% walk rate.
  • The Rays announced they have non-tendered outfielder Dylan Carlson as well as left-handers Tyler Alexander, Colin Poche and Richard Lovelady. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed the news (X link) prior to the official announcement. Carlson once seemed like a building block in St. Louis but his offense has declined for three straight years now and he was projected for a $2.7MM salary. Alexander was projected for $2.8MM and had a 5.10 ERA this year. Poche had a solid 3.86 ERA but was projected for $3.4MM. Lovelady was designated for assignment a few days ago.
  • The Rangers tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Red Sox announced that right-handers Bryan Mata and Isaiah Campbell were both non-tendered. Those two had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Royals tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Tigers announced that they have non-tendered infielder Eddys Leonard as well as right-handers Ricky Vanasco, Brendan White and Wilmer Flores. Three of those four were designated for assignment earlier this week. Flores, the lone exception, is the younger brother of the same-named Wilmer Flores of the Giants. The younger Flores was once a notable pitching prospect but was injured for most of 2024.
  • The Twins tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class.
  • The Yankees have non-tendered infielder Jon Berti, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). He was projected for a salary of $3.8MM. He was injured for much of the year and only got into 25 games. The Yankees also announced that they have non-tendered left-hander Tim Mayza, who was projected for a $4MM salary but had a 6.33 ERA in 2024.
  • The White Sox will non-tender first baseman/outfielder Gavin Sheets, which MLBTR covered earlier today. The Sox later announced Sheets and also that they non-tendered right-hander Enyel De Los Santos as well. De Los Santos was projected for a salary of $1.7MM but posted a 5.20 ERA this year.

Blue Jays Claim Dillon Tate

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The Blue Jays announced this afternoon that they’ve claimed right-hander Dillon Tate off waivers from the Orioles and optioned him to Triple-A. Right-hander Paolo Espino was designated for assignment to make room for Tate on the 40-man roster.

Tate, 30, was taken by the Rangers as the fourth overall pick in the 2015 draft and was a part of two blockbuster trades before he made his MLB debut. First, he was swapped from Texas to the Bronx in the deal that made Carlos Beltran a Ranger in 2016, and then two years later he was dealt from the Yankees to the Orioles at the 2018 trade deadline as part of the package that sent Zack Britton to New York. Once he joined his third organization, Tate made his big league debut in fairly short order when he debuted with Baltimore during the 2019 season. That first season in the majors did not go especially well, as he pitched to a lackluster 6.43 ERA in 21 innings of work.

After struggling to start his big league career, Tate managed to settle in over the next few years to become a reliable member of the club’s bullpen. From 2020 to 2022, the right-hander pitched to a solid 3.65 ERA with a 3.88 FIP in 141 appearances, becoming a stable middle relief option for Baltimore. That includes a particularly strong performance during the 2022 season, when the Orioles surged back over .500 for the first time since the 2016 season. That year, Tate was excellent with a 3.05 ERA and 3.28 FIP in 73 2/3 innings of work. While he struck out just 20.5% of opponents that year, he made up for that with a walk rate of just 5.5% and an elite 57.4% groundball rate.

Unfortunately, things went off the rails for Tate following that excellent 2022 season. Elbow and forearm issues wiped out the right-hander’s 2023 season in its entirety, and when he returned earlier this year he didn’t appear to be the same pitcher he was in 2022. In 33 1/3 innings with the big league club this year, Tate struggled to a 4.59 ERA and saw his strikeout rate drop to just 15.5% while his groundball rate dropped to a diminished (but still excellent) 50.9% figure. Those lackluster results and shaky peripherals were enough to convince the club to designate Tate for assignment just a few days ago, and now he’ll look to get back on track with the Orioles’ division rival Blue Jays. If Tate’s time in Toronto goes well, they’ll have the opportunity to retain the right-hander for the 2025 season via arbitration.

As for Espino, the 37-year-old righty has spent the 2024 season with the Blue Jays after signing a minor league deal with the club back in December. He’s pitched 8 2/3 innings for the club to brutal results with an 8.31 ERA and 9.06 FIP across three appearances, and his 5.18 ERA in 17 starts at the Triple-A level hasn’t been much better. The veteran hurler sports a 5.12 ERA and 5.06 FIP in 265 2/3 career innings of work spread across parts of six seasons since he made his big league debut back in 2017, and figures to return to Triple-A with Toronto to continue eating innings in the likely event that he clears waivers.

Orioles Claim Forrest Wall, Designate Dillon Tate For Assignment

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The Orioles announced that they have claimed outfielder Forrest Wall off waivers and optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk. He had been designated for assignment by the Marlins earlier this week. To open a 40-man roster spot for him, right-hander Dillon Tate has been designated for assignment.

Wall, 28, fits the classic speed-and-defense mold that contending clubs tend to acquire this time of season. He gives the Orioles a bench option down the stretch in September and perhaps into the postseason, if they’re willing to dedicate a roster spot to what’s effectively a pinch-running specialist and potential late-game defensive replacement.

Selected 35th overall by the Rockies in 2014, Wall has played in a pair of big league seasons, suiting up for the Braves last year and for Atlanta and Miami this season. He has only 50 MLB plate appearances under his belt, with a .311/.380/.432 slash to show for it. That’s strong production, of course, but it bears mentioning that Wall is only a .269/.355/.380 hitter in parts of five Triple-A seasons; he’s not likely to sustain that small-sample big league production over a lengthier period.

Be that as it may, the Orioles won’t be counting on him to do so. Baltimore has a stout lineup as is, but Wall offers 93rd percentile sprint speed. That’ll be his carrying trait for the Orioles for however long they carry him on the roster down the stretch. We’ve seen plenty of clubs successfully employ this tactic with expanded September rosters and into the postseason in the past — the 2015 Royals and Terrance Gore come to mind. Baltimore, for all its offensive prowess, lacks this type of premium speed at the moment. Jorge Mateo is even faster than Wall, but he’s on the 60-day IL due to a subluxation in his shoulder. Cedric Mullins leads the club with 23 steals but isn’t nearly as fast as Wall.

Baltimore’s claim of Wall will bring to an end a lengthy Orioles tenure for Tate. The 30-year-old righty and former No. 4 overall draft pick came to the O’s back in 2018 as the former front office regime kicked off the rebuild that led to the development of the Orioles’ current impressive core. For several seasons, Tate was a staple in the Baltimore ’pen, but injuries have set him back.

From 2020-22, Tate pitched 158 innings with a 3.65 ERA, 19.1% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and huge 57.9% grounder rate. He looked to have solidified himself as a quality late-inning piece for manager Brandon Hyde, but a flexor strain wiped out Tate’s entire 2023 season. Since returning, he’s shown diminished velocity with lesser strikeout and grounder rates: 15.5% and 50.9%, respectively. He’s been tagged for a 4.59 ERA in 33 1/3 innings this season, although Tate sports a 2.16 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and 40.4% grounder rate in 16 2/3 Triple-A innings as well.

With the trade deadline behind us, the Orioles will have no choice but to place Tate on waivers. Given his track record, modest $1.5MM salary and additional club control, it’s possible Tate will be picked up by another club. The new team would only owe Tate the prorated portion of that salary — just $250K through season’s end. A new club could also retain him for another two seasons via arbitration. While Tate entered the season with 4.048 years of MLB service, he won’t spend enough time on the big league roster this season to cross five years. As such, he’ll be controllable through the 2026 campaign if another team wishes to claim him.

In the event that Tate goes unclaimed, he’d have enough service time to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency. However, since he doesn’t yet have five years of service, doing so would require forfeiting the remainder of this year’s $1.5MM salary. As such, he’s likely to accept a minor league assignment if he’s not claimed. In that scenario, Tate would be eligible to become a free agent at season’s end unless he’s added back to the 40-man roster prior to that point.

Orioles Select Burch Smith

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The Orioles announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Burch Smith from Triple-A Norfolk. Fellow righty Dillon Tate was optioned to Norfolk in a corresponding move. Baltimore already had an open spot on the 40-man roster, so a 40-man move wasn’t necessary.

The 34-year-old Smith signed with the O’s on a minor league deal two weeks ago. He’s pitched a pair of shutout innings for the Tides during his brief Triple-A stint in the organization, fanning a pair and only allowing one hit along the way. He also tossed 29 2/3 innings out of the Marlins’ bullpen earlier this season and worked to a solid 4.25 ERA — albeit with a subpar 17% strikeout rate. However, Smith also walked only 6.7% of his opponents and kept the ball on the ground at a hearty 47% clip.

That marked Smith’s first big league work since 2021. He spent the 2022 season with the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and the 2023 season with the Korea Baseball Organization’s Hanwha Eagles. A former 11th-round pick, Smith has pitched in parts of six big league seasons between the Padres, A’s, Royals, Giants, Brewers and Marlins, logging a combined 5.79 ERA, 20.7% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate.

As for Tate, he was a key member of the Baltimore bullpen in 2022, when he pitched 73 2/3 innings of 3.05 ERA ball for manager Brandon Hyde. He opened the 2023 season on the injured list due to a flexor strain, however, and when he’d progressed to the point that he was ready for a rehab assignment, he suffered a stress reaction in his elbow that led to a second shutdown. He wound up missing the entire 2023 season as a result of those two injuries.

Now healthy, Tate was enjoying a strong season up through mid-June before hitting a substantial rough patch. As recently as June 19, Tate was sitting on a sparkling 2.31 ERA. A poor 15.6% strikeout rate suggested he would have a hard time sustaining quite that level of success, but Tate sported an average walk rate and huge 56.3% grounder rate. Regression indeed came — and far more aggressively than anyone could’ve reasonably predicted. He’s been scored upon in three straight appearances and has given up runs in six of his past eight outings. Dating back to June 19, Tate has a 9.90 ERA (11 runs in 10 innings).

The move to option Tate comes not long before he’d have been granted the right to refuse such an assignment. The former No. 4 overall pick entered the season with 4.048 years of MLB service and has run that total up to 4.128 years. With just 44 more days on the active roster or injured list, he’d reach five years of service. At that point, he’d have to consent to being optioned.

So long as Tate gets 44 more days on the active roster or injured list between now and season’s end, he’ll remain on track to become a free agent following the 2025 season. If, however, he’s up for 43 or fewer days, he’ll finish the season with four-plus years instead of five-plus and have his path to free agency pushed back by a year.

Orioles Place Dean Kremer On Injured List

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The Orioles announced that they have recalled right-hander Dillon Tate and left-hander Nick Vespi. In corresponding moves, right-hander Jonathan Heasley has been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk while righty Dean Kremer has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right triceps strain. Kremer’s IL move is retroactive to May 21.

The Orioles have not yet provided any information about the severity of Kremer’s injury, but it will provide the Orioles with a challenge nonetheless. Just a week ago, the club began a stretch of playing 42 games in 44 days and was planning to go to a six-man rotation to keep their starters fresh. However, John Means landed on the injured list yesterday due to a forearm strain and now Kremer is on the shelf as well.

That leaves Baltimore with a rotation of Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez. The latter two were also on the IL earlier this year, though each was reinstated this month. Cole Irvin and Albert Suárez were each in the rotation earlier this year but had been bumped to the bullpen. With the injury bug biting this week, both of them may have to return to starting roles.

That plan will come with a couple of challenges. Irvin threw 56 pitches in a relief outing on Wednesday and may not be available for a couple more days. Suárez was stretched out earlier this year but it’s been about two weeks since he pitched more than an inning.

Even if the O’s can find a way to smoothly transition Irvin and Suárez back to the rotation, that still leaves them with just five starters when they had planned on having six. Perhaps they consider that acceptable, but with Bradish and Rodriguez having already missed time this year, getting them a bit of extra rest during this tough part of the schedule could still be a priority.

Bruce Zimmermann is on the 40-man roster but has been on the minor league IL for almost two weeks now due to a hamstring strain. Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott, two of the club’s top pitching prospects, are pitching well in Triple-A but neither is on the 40-man roster.

Whatever the Orioles are planning, more information may be forthcoming this weekend. Burnes is taking the ball tonight but Kremer was scheduled for Saturday. Both Bradish and Rodriguez pitched too recently to take the ball on normal rest by tomorrow.

Orioles Notes: Tate, Kimbrel, Norby

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The Orioles announced last night that right-hander Dillon Tate has been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk, thus opening a roster spot for lefty Cionel Perez to return from the injured list. Perez missed the past month with an oblique strain.

It’s a somewhat surprising move, if only because Tate hasn’t been optioned to the minors since the 2019 season. The right-hander has been a constant in Baltimore’s bullpen when healthy over the past several seasons, pitching to a combined 3.90 ERA with a sub-par 19% strikeout rate but strong 7.5% walk rate and borderline elite 58.3% ground-ball rate dating back to that 2019 campaign. He’s missed time along the way, including a season-long absence just last year while he battled a flexor strain.

Tate, 29, entered the current season with 4.048 years of big league service time and picked up another 32 days prior to yesterday’s option. He needs to accrue an additional 92 days of service in 2024 to reach five years and remain on track for free agency following the 2025 season. Once he does reach that five-year mark — whenever that may be — he’d also be granted the perk of needing to give his consent to be optioned again in the future.

For now, the O’s can continue to shuttle Tate back and forth if they see fit. He’s gotten out to a solid start in his return effort, pitching to a 2.84 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. Tate’s 12.2% strikeout rate is concerning enough on its own, but when coupled with a matching 12.2% walk rate it’s fair to question how long he can sustain the results he’s generated to date. His 61.1% grounder rate remains outstanding, but Tate’s average sinker velocity is down from 2021’s 95.5 mph peak all the way to 91.9 mph in 2024. Given the concerning K-BB profile and dip in velocity, it’s understandable if the Orioles want him to work on some things in Norfolk. He’d also pitched on consecutive days and was thus likely to be unavailable last night.

Tate’s demotion and Perez’s return shake up what’s been a middle-of-the-pack bullpen overall this season. Baltimore relievers rank 16th in baseball with a 3.88 ERA, although they sit fourth and sixth, respectively, with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate. That comes despite the absence of star closer Felix Bautista, who won’t pitch this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October. Veteran Craig Kimbrel signed a one-year deal to take over as the closer and has generally pitched well, though he’s run into some troubles of late and is currently day-to-day with back discomfort after exiting his Sunday appearance.

Manager Brandon Hyde said yesterday that Kimbrel was feeling better than on Sunday and that the team remains hopeful he can avoid a trip to the 15-day injured list (X link via MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski). The 35-year-old allowed just one earned run with a scintillating 17-to-2 K/BB ratio in his first 11 innings this season but has given up three runs on three hits and four walks over his last two appearances — all while recording only two outs. Kimbrel’s velocity held strong, but it’s clear he was struggling with his command over those two outings — quite possibly due to the current back ailment he’s facing. Time will tell whether the O’s make an IL move, but to this point that doesn’t appear to be in the cards.

One other topic weighing on the minds of Orioles fans at the moment is when top prospect Connor Norby might get his first look in the big leagues. Many thought that might’ve been the corresponding move when Jackson Holliday was optioned after his early struggles, but Baltimore instead brought back outfielder Ryan McKenna, who’s also been getting some infield work at second base to expand his versatility.

Norby may not have gotten the call just yet, but “his time is coming,” general manager Mike Elias tells Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun. Elias notes that Norby, a 2021 second-rounder who’s been ranked among the sport’s top-100 prospects in the past, is still working to refine his defensive skills at both second base and in the outfield corners — the latter of which is newer to his skill set. The O’s played Norby in left field for just 58 innings in 2022 but ramped him up to a combined 258 innings between the outfield corners last season. He’s already logged 144 innings of outfield work this season, compared to just 69 at second base.

Elias didn’t place a specific timetable on Norby’s potential ascension to the big leagues. However, the 23-year-old is out to a nice .274/.346/.487 slash this season in Norfolk, having connected on six homers and six doubles to go along with a pair of steals. This year’s 29.1% strikeout rate is a bit concerning and possibly another contributing factor to Norby remaining in the minors; he fanned at just a 21.6% clip in 633 plate appearances there last season. Meyer chatted with both Elias and Norby’s former (and presumably future) teammate Colton Cowser about the promising prospect’s work ethic and long-term outlook, which O’s fans will want to check out in full.

Orioles Notes: Ownership, Santander, Tate

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The Orioles ownership change could be made official in the coming weeks. Evan Drellich of the Athletic wrote yesterday that MLB is likely to formally approve the sale of the O’s to David Rubenstein by April. According to Drellich, there’s a small chance the deal could be completed before Opening Day.

Rubenstein agreed to purchase the franchise from the Angelos family in late January for $1.725 billion. He’ll assume control of 40% of the organization initially and will reportedly take on the majority stake upon the passing of Peter Angelos. The agreement still needs to be approved by MLB owners but that’s largely a formality.

Receiving that rubber stamp still marks a key moment for the franchise. The fanbase is hopeful that Rubenstein will authorize the kind of long-term investment from which the organization has shied away since John Angelos became control person. The O’s finally made their long-awaited consolidation trade for an ace to install Corbin Burnes at the front of the rotation. They haven’t pulled off an analogous strike on the free agent or extension fronts. Félix Bautista’s $1MM salary and a handful of option buyouts are the only contractual commitments beyond this year.

Burnes headlines their group of players who’ll hit free agency after the upcoming season. The former Cy Young winner has spoken about his desire to get to the open market. Anthony Santander is perhaps the second-most impactful of Baltimore’s possible free agents. He has spent his entire MLB career with the O’s after being selected in the 2016 Rule 5 draft. The switch-hitting outfielder indicated he’d be happy to stay off the market.

“I would love that,” Santander replied when asked about an extension (link via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun). “That’s something that we always talk about outside of this room with my family and friends. I would love to stay here. We leave that business side to the front office. We’re just here to live in the moment right now, prepare ourselves.”

While Santander projects as one of the more effective hitters in the upcoming class, it’s possible the O’s don’t feel much urgency in extending him. Baltimore’s stockpile of young talent extends to the outfield. In addition to established starters Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays (both of whom are under control through 2025), the O’s have Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Kyle Stowers as controllable outfielders who have reached the majors. They could count on someone from that group stepping into a regular role for ’25 and beyond.

Baltimore would be able to make Santander a qualifying offer in the absence of a long-term deal. It seems unlikely they’d want to offer a one-year salary that’d exceed $20MM, but Santander could play his way into legitimate QO consideration if he turns in another season like his 2023 campaign. He’s coming off an impressive .257/.325/.472 showing with 28 homers.

The O’s can delay that decision until next winter. Their more immediate focus is on defending last year’s AL East crown. Getting Dillon Tate back into high-leverage innings would be a nice boost towards those efforts. The former #4 overall pick turned in a 3.05 ERA over a career-high 73 2/3 frames back in 2022. He missed all of last season nursing a flexor strain but avoided surgery and is back in the bullpen mix this spring. Tate threw a perfect inning with a strikeout of Ryan Kreidler in today’s exhibition game against Detroit, his first game action of the year.

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Michael Lorenzen

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The Orioles have been connected to various starting pitching targets all winter and that search is ongoing. General manager Mike Elias said so himself today, telling reporters such as Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner. Elias hasn’t ruled out a free agent addition but says the club’s farm system makes a trade more likely. In terms of free agent pursuits, Jon Morosi of MLB.com lists Michael Lorenzen as one they have shown interest in.

Pitching is a clear target area of the club’s roster. They are loaded with position players but the rotation is lacking in certainty. Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty each became free agents after last season and have since signed elsewhere.

Both Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez finished the year strong, but the former has less than two years of big league experience and the latter less than one. John Means will be in the mix but he hasn’t pitched much over the past two years due to Tommy John surgery. Dean Kremer should be in the back end somewhere after posting a 4.12 earned run average last year. Cole Irvin could be a factor but he struggled last year, getting moved to the bullpen and the minors throughout the year. Guys like Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmermann or Cade Povich could factor in as well. Elias also said that DL Hall is still viewed as a starter in the long term, per Kostka, but may remain in the bullpen for the short term.

For a club that just won 101 games and is looking to compete again this year, there’s clearly room for upgrades there. They should have the ability to make any kind of move they want, due to their payroll and organizational situations. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that they haven’t given a free agent a multi-year deal since signing Alex Cobb in 2018. That means their future ledger is wide open and their 2024 payroll is only at $81MM, per Roster Resource. That’s a jump from last year’s Opening Day figure but still bottom three in the league for this year, ahead of only the Athletics and Pirates.

They also have a stacked farm system, considered by many to be the strongest in the league. With that combination of an elite farm system and a clean payroll slate, the options are theoretically endless. Throughout the winter, they have been connected to all sorts of arms. That includes one of the top free agents in Aaron Nola, though he subsequently re-signed with the Phillies. It also includes the lower tiers of free agency, with guys like James Paxton and Domingo Germán having been connected to the O’s, though Paxton is now reportedly in agreement with the Dodgers. The Orioles have also been interested in trade candidates like Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes.

Despite all of that interest, they have yet to pull the trigger on any move to address their rotation, with pitchers and catchers set to report to Spring Training in less than three weeks. Elias continues to insist that a trade is a likely path forward, though it remains to be seen if they can get anything done. The asking price on Cease is reportedly very high, with the White Sox asking for multiple top prospects. The possibility of the Brewers trading Burnes has seemingly faded as the offseason has progressed.

On the free agent side of things, Lorenzen is apparently another name they have considered. The 32-year-old spent much of his career as a reliever with the Reds but has been pursuing a return to starting work since reaching free agency. He signed with the Angels in 2022 and was able to make 18 starts and log 97 2/3 innings. His 4.24 ERA was passable in that time. His 20.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate were a bit worse than average, but his 50.2% ground ball rate was strong.

That wasn’t astounding production but a step in the right director in terms of workload. In 2023, he seemed to take another step forward after signing with the Tigers. Through midseason, he had already made 18 starts and thrown 105 2/3 innings. He had dropped his ERA to 3.58 and lowered his walk rate to 6.5%. He was traded to the Phillies and kept the good times rolling for a while. He allowed two earned runs over eight innings in his first start as a Phillie and then threw a no-hitter in his second.

From that point, things went off the rails. Lorenzen was shelled for 27 earned runs in his final 30 1/3 innings, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process. It’s fair to wonder if he simply ran out of gas. After years of working out of the bullpen, he pushed himself to almost 100 innings in 2022. After the no-hitter, which took him 124 pitches, he was at 122 2/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.23 ERA. The rough finish added almost a full run to his ERA, pushing it to 4.18 for the year overall.

Arguably, another year of pushing himself in terms of innings could lessen the late-season drop-off. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lorenzen for a two-year, $22MM deal. His market has been fairly quiet this winter but he reportedly held a showcase for interested clubs earlier this week.

Elsewhere in Oriole news, manager Brandon Hyde says that righty Dillon Tate is healthy and looked “unbelievable” recently, per Kostka. Tate didn’t pitch in the majors in 2023, as he was diagnosed with a forearm/flexor strain in November of 2022 and wasn’t able to get healthy last year. He went on multiple rehab assignments but was never returned to the big leagues. When he was last healthy, he threw 73 2/3 innings for the O’s in 2022 with a 3.05 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 57.4% ground ball rate. If he is back in good form, it could be a boon for the bullpen.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History: Honorable Mentions

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The calendar has flipped to June, and more than one-third of the season is in the rearview mirror. While there’s still plenty of time for the standings to change in dramatic fashion — just ask the 2022 Phillies or 2019 Nationals — the “early” portion of the season is a bit behind us. As the weather heats up and playoff pictures begin to take a more definitive shape, the baseball world inherently turns its focus to a few things: the looming All-Star Game, the upcoming amateur draft and, of course, the annual trade deadline.

June trades of note are admittedly rare — particularly over the past ten years or so — but we’re fast approaching the portion of the season where trade needs, potential trade candidates and many other deadline-adjacent minutiae begin to crystallize. It’s common for fans of rebuilding and/or underperforming clubs to begin to wonder just what sort of returns their favorite team might be able to eke out for veteran players with dwindling club control.

Some of the most common questions we’re asked in chats at MLBTR these days center around what a team might be able to get for a certain player — rentals in particular. Names like Lucas Giolito, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Jeimer Candelario were just a few readers asked me about this past week. To be clear, it’s not a given that all or even any of those specific names will change hands in two months’ time (or sooner), but it’s obviously a hot topic that’s on people’s minds.

As such, it only seemed natural to take a look back through recent history and look at some high-profile trades of rental players and see which panned out the best for the team selling off the veteran player in question. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll roll out a look at the ten “best” returns for rental players in recent trade deadline history.

A few caveats of note! At times, it can take three, four, five years or even longer for a team to begin reaping the benefits from such a deal. An immediate return isn’t always apparent, particularly when you’re only selling two months of a player or players. As such, we’re not considering trades completed at last year’s deadline for our top ten, even though they could well prove excellent as soon as 2024 or 2025. It’s simply too soon to evaluate those swaps. Also, these rankings are subjective; they’re not based on a hard-and-fast WAR criteria or anything of the sort. If you think we should’ve ranked No. 7 higher and No. 4 lower, let us know. It’s all part of the fun.

While I said we’re omitting last year’s deadline from our top ten, that doesn’t mean we’ll completely ignore the results of the 2022 deadline. To kick off the series, here’s a quick look at three honorable mentions from 2017-21 as well as a handful of 2022 trades that will be worth keeping an eye on in the years to come. Present-day impact of these 2022 trades has either been minimal or nonexistent, but each brought the “selling” team some nearly MLB-ready help that could be impactful as soon as this season. These honorable mentions and 2022 swaps aren’t ranked — they’re just sorted alphabetically by the last name of the player who was traded.

Let’s begin!

Honorable Mentions

Orioles acquire RHPs Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and LHP Josh Rogers from the Yankees in exchange for LHP Zack Britton (7/24/18)

Two-thirds of this return for Baltimore wound up making little to no impact, but the acquisition of Tate, a former No. 4 overall draft pick, wound up paying dividends. Though Tate isn’t the rotation piece the Rangers hoped for when drafting him or the Yankees envisioned when acquiring him for Carlos Beltran, he’s emerged as a quality setup man at Camden Yards. The O’s gave Tate just ten starts after the trade before moving him to the bullpen, and while his rookie effort in 2019 left plenty to be desired, he’s since pitched quite well.

Dating back to 2020, Tate has a 3.65 ERA in 158 innings of relief, adding 25 holds and eight saves along the way. Tate’s 19.1% strikeout rate is below-average, but his 6.8% walk rate is better than average and his 57.9% grounder rate is outstanding. In 2022, he pitched to a pristine 3.05 ERA through 73 2/3 frames, tallying five of those saves and 16 of those holds. A forearm strain has kept Tate out of action this year, however.

Tate isn’t peak Britton and likely never will be, but trading two months of an elite reliever and winding up with six years of club control over an above-average reliever isn’t a bad outcome for Baltimore. As for the Yankees, they got the tail end of Britton’s prime. He notched a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings down the stretch and re-signed on a three-year deal with a fourth year option (that had to be exercised after the contract’s second season to prevent a Britton opt-out). Britton posted a sub-2.00 ERA in both 2019 and 2020, but he pitched just 19 innings over his final two years in New York due to injuries.

Rays acquire LHP Jalen Beeks from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi (7/25/18)

Few could’ve predicted what an impactful trade this would end up being at the time it was made. At the time of the swap, Eovaldi was in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and had pitched 57 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Tampa Bay. He’d long intrigued teams with his power arsenal but was inconsistent and carried a career ERA that more or less matched that season total.

Eovaldi took off in Boston, however, tossing 54 frames of 3.33 ERA ball as the Sox marched to the postseason, where he cemented his status in Red Sox lore. Eovaldi was a star that October, tossing 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio. Those are impressive numbers on their own, but they only tell part of the tale. Eovaldi won his first two starts of the playoffs before moving to the bullpen and picking up a pair of holds. But it was Game 3 of the World Series, where Eovaldi gutted out six innings of relief in an 18-inning marathon and finished out the game, that many will remember. The Dodgers wound up winning when Eovaldi’s 97th (!) pitch out of the bullpen was deposited in the seats by Max Muncy, but he saved the Boston bullpen with six innings of one-run ball that night. The Sox went on to win the World Series in five games.

As for the Rays, they came away with a lefty who’d come up through Boston’s system as a starter but would be used in a jack-of-all-trades role in St. Petersburg. Beeks has served as a long reliever, a setup man and an opener in parts of five seasons with Tampa Bay, totaling 258 innings of 4.12 ERA ball along the way. He’s been the type of versatile arm whose value can’t be neatly encapsulated in what looks like an otherwise modest WAR total. Beeks has handled just about any role the Rays could ask, and he’s generally been effective in doing so. He’s not a star, but he’s been an important member of their pitching staff for a half decade now and is still under team control through the 2024 season.

Tigers acquire RHP Reese Olson from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Daniel Norris (7/30/21)

The 23-year-old Olson made his big league debut on Friday when he stepped into the Detroit rotation to take the spot of the injured Eduardo Rodriguez. As far as debuts go, it was nearly as good as a young pitcher could ask for. Olson carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before being tagged for a pair of runs and departing five frames of two-run ball in the books.

Olson isn’t regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects and isn’t even universally considered to be among the Tigers’ top 10 prospects, but he’s missed bats consistently in the upper minors and is regarded as a potential long-term rotation piece if he can improve upon the command of his fastball. Scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and MLB.com praise Olson’s secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, which he’s begun using effectively even in right-on-right situations.

Detroit has seen a lot of turnover in the baseball operations department since this trade, but former GM Al Avila, AGM David Chadd and others will be in line for some praise if the Tigers get a viable big leaguer in exchange for two months of the veteran Norris, who was sitting on a 5.38 ERA in 36 2/3 innings at the time of the deal. Norris had been tough on lefties, and the Brewers surely felt they could coax a higher level of performance out of him with some tweaks. That didn’t happen, however, as Norris was rocked for a 6.64 ERA in Milwaukee, walking 15 of the 63 batters he faced (23.8%) and serving up five homers in 20 1/3 frames (2.2 HR/9).

2022 Deadline Swaps to Watch

Pirates acquire RHP Johan Oviedo, INF Malcom Nunez from the Cardinals in exchange for LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Chris Stratton (8/2/22)

Yes, technically this isn’t a pure rental. Stratton had an additional year of club control, and that surely factored into the return. But he was also sitting on a 5.09 ERA at the time of the deal, and this was largely a trade centered around getting Quintana to land some much-needed rotation help in St. Louis.

The Cardinals got just what they wanted out of this deal — and then some. Quintana stepped into the rotation and not only solidified the staff but pitched to a brilliant 2.01 ERA in 62 2/3 frames down the stretch. The lefty was so excellent that St. Louis wound up tabbing him as the Game 1 starter in last year’s National League Division Series. Quintana had signed a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason and was acquired as a back-end starter but pitched like an ace. The script doesn’t get much better for the acquiring team.

That said, this trade also has the makings of a winner for Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old Oviedo has been inconsistent but shown flashes of brilliance with the Bucs. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches — particularly more curveballs, which has been an extremely effective offering for him through 11 starts. Oviedo’s 4.50 ERA in 58 innings looks pretty pedestrian, but he’s upped his ground-ball rate and improved his velocity even in a rotation role. He’s allowed one or zero runs in six of his 11 starts this year. The Pirates can control Oviedo for four more years beyond the current season, and if he’s a legitimate starter or even a multi-inning relief piece, that’ll be a fine return for their modest Quintana flier. Nunez, meanwhile, hit .286/.381/.476 in Double-A following the trade and is at .255/.338/.369 in 160 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

Cubs acquire RHP Ben Brown from the Phillies in exchange for RHP David Robertson (8/2/22)

Robertson was one of the most in-demand relievers — or trade candidates in general — at last year’s deadline, and the rebuilding/retooling Cubs needed to get their return right. So far, it looks like they’ve done just that. Brown is out to a sensational start in the upper minors this year, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with a 35.5% strikeout rate against a less-appealing 11.7% walk rate. Baseball America ranked him sixth among Cubs prospects heading into the season, and The Athletic’s Keith Law called him a “heck of a get for two months of a 37-year-old reliever.” FanGraphs currently has him ranked 87th on their top-100 prospect list, and MLB.com moved him into its top-100 just this morning.

Despite Brown’s wide-reaching acclaim, the Phillies might not even regret making the swap. Robertson struggled with his command following the trade but still posted 22 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and saved six games for Philadelphia down the stretch in a tight Wild Card race that saw them edge out the Brewers by exactly one win. The Phillies needed every single victory, and if they’d held onto Brown and targeted a different reliever(s), who knows whether they’d have reached the playoffs? Were it not for Robertson — who pitched 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs — the Phils may never have experienced J.T. Realmuto’s NLDS inside-the-parker, Rhys Hoskins’ four-homer NLCS, or Bryce Harper’s iconic NLCS-clinching bomb.

Angels acquire OFs Mickey Moniak, Jadiel Sanchez from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Noah Syndergaard (8/2/22)

This trade might not have gone as well as the Phillies hoped. Syndergaard was decent down the stretch, pitching to a 4.12 ERA in 10 appearances, nine of them starts. He started just twice in the postseason and made one relief appearance. Syndergaard pitched like a fourth or fifth starter but saw his already diminished velocity and strikeout rate step even further back following the trade. Again, the Phils needed every last win to get to the playoffs, though, so it’s hard to say they’d definitively have done anything different. They won six of Syndergaard’s nine starts and also picked up the victory in the lone game they used him out of the bullpen, when he tossed two scoreless frames.

At least thus far, Angels fans can’t complain about the return. Moniak isn’t going to sustain a .429 batting average on balls in play, but he’s hitting .327/.340/.694 in 50 plate appearances. The BABIP and a 34% strikeout rate scream for regression, but the former 1-1 pick has already hit as many homers through 50 trips to the plate with the Halos (four) as he did in 167 with the Phillies. He’s played good defense, run well and given some hope that he can carve out a role moving forward.

Red Sox acquire INF Enmanuel Valdez, OF Wilyer Abreu from the Astros in exchange for C Christian Vazquez (8/1/22)

Trading Vazquez was part of a disjointed Red Sox trade deadline that saw Boston trade away their longtime catcher and lefty reliever Jake Diekman while also acquiring Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. It wasn’t clear that their 2023 roster was improved, and the decision to hold onto other trade targets while adding Pham’s salary left them just over the luxury tax line (thereby reducing their compensation for qualifying offers extended to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi).

Digression aside, the swap might prove beneficial to the Sox in the long run. Valdez has already made his big league debut, and although his bat faded after a hot start, he’s still sporting a passable .244/.292/.422 batting line (91 wRC+) in his first 97 big league plate appearances. He’s picked up four homers, four doubles and three steals (in four tries) while subbing in at second base in the wake of a slew of middle-infield injuries. Valdez posted absolutely massive numbers in 205 Double-A plate appearances last year (.357/.463/.649) before moving up to Triple-A and hitting .265/.327/.488.

Abreu, meanwhile, was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and is hitting .264/.379/.479 in 40 Triple-A games so far. He’s regarded as a potential plus outfield defender, and his success in Triple-A and status on the 40-man roster mean the Red Sox could possibly have two MLB contributors within a year or so of trading Vazquez.

It’s hard to say anything moves the 2022 Astros made “didn’t work out,” as the team won the World Series in the end. But Vazquez took a backseat to Martin Maldonado both in the regular season and the playoffs, hitting just .250/.278/.308 in 108 regular-season plate appearances following the swap (plus .235/.316/.235 in just 19 playoff plate appearances).

Orioles Select Josh Lester

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The Orioles announced that they have selected the contract of infielder/outfielder Josh Lester from Triple-A.  In corresponding moves, righty Dillon Tate was moved to the 60-day injured list, and left-hander Danny Coulombe was placed on the bereavement list.

Lester was a 13th-round pick for the Tigers in the 2015 draft, and he spent his entire career in Detroit’s organization until this past offseason, when he elected to become a minor league free agent rather than an accept an outright assignment to Triple-A Toledo.  Lester’s stint in Motown at least culminated in his Major League debut, as he appeared in two games for the Tigers last season.

After catching on with Baltimore on a minor league deal, Lester has been crushing Triple-A pitching, hitting .282/.339/.549 with 14 homers over 231 plate appearances at Norfolk.  Even with all of the star prospects in the Orioles’ farm system, it could be that the O’s prefer giving what might be a brief stint in the majors to a more experienced player, rather than interrupt the development of a more long-term asset.  It’s hard to argue that Lester’s slash line wasn’t worth at least another cup of coffee in the Show, and he’ll provide some depth as a corner infielder and corner outfielder.

Tate suffered a flexor strain back in November and hasn’t yet pitched in the majors in 2023, but he has logged 10 appearances in the minors as he works his way back.  The move to the 60-day IL doesn’t impact Tate’s timetable, as the 60-day placement retroactively applies to his initial 15-day placement on Opening Day.

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