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Orioles Recall Coby Mayo, Activate Zach Eflin

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11:48am: The Orioles have officially announced the return of both Eflin and Mayo, and have placed Urias on the 10-day IL with a right ankle sprain. Additionally, the club selected the contract of catcher David Banuelos from Triple-A and designated outfielder Forrest Wall for assignment to make room for him on the 40-man roster. Banuelos has spent most of the season at Triple-A after being outrighted to the minors back in April, while Wall was claimed off waivers from the Marlins just a few days ago but will now return to the waiver wire.

7:38am: Rosters expand from 26 to 28 today, meaning every team in baseball will get to call up an additional pitcher and an additional hitter as they begin play today. There’s little mystery about who those players will be for the Orioles, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Brandon Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun) that right-hander Zach Eflin will be activated from the 15-day Injured List to start today’s game against the Rockies this afternoon. Earlier in the day, Weyrich reported that top infield prospect Coby Mayo was poised to join the club as their additional hitter when rosters expanded today.

It will be the second taste of big league action for Mayo, 22. The youngster got his feet wet in the majors earlier this month with a brief cup of coffee that lasted only seven games and 20 at-bats, and he hit just .059 without an extra-base hit in that brief stint at the big league level before being optioned back to the minors. His sensational .293/.369/.574 slash line at the Triple-A level this season has left him with nothing more to prove in the minor leagues, however, so Mayo now figures to get a more extended opportunity to prove himself in the big leagues as fellow rookie Jackson Holliday has. Holliday struggled badly in his first ten games in the majors back in April but has looked better since returning to the majors the day after the trade deadline with a .218/.275/.426 slash line that’s good for a roughly league average 98 wRC+.

As for Eflin, the veteran right-hander came over to Baltimore in a trade with the Rays prior to the deadline. After posting strong enough numbers last year to finish sixth in the AL Cy Young award race, the right-hander took a step back with Tampa last year, posting a pedestrian 4.09 ERA in 19 starts despite a solid 3.68 FIP. Things changed when Eflin got to Baltimore, however, and in four starts after the swap the righty looked nothing short of excellent with a 2.13 ERA and a 24.5% strikeout rate in 25 2/3 innings of work. Eflin has been sidelined in recent weeks by a bout of shoulder inflammation, but it seems now he’s healthy enough to return to action. The Orioles are surely counting on the righty to help keep afloat a beleaguered rotation that also lost Grayson Rodriguez to the injured list in the month of August.

While Mayo and Eflin were both expected to be the club’s extra players following roster expansion, it’s possible after last night’s game that two more spots on the roster could open up today as both right-hander Dean Kremer and infielder Ramon Urias exited due to injuries yesterday. Kremer was struck by a comebacker in the fourth inning yesterday and exited with a right forearm contusion, with Manny Randhawa of MLB.com among those to relay the news that Kremer’s initial x-rays came back negative. As noted by Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner, both he and Urias, who who suffered a sprained ankle after also narrowly avoiding injury when struck in the face by a pitch earlier in the game, figure to be evaluated further today to see if either player will require a stint on the injured list.

The planned returns of Eflin and Mayo to the roster coincidentally figure to cover for the losses of Kremer in the rotation and Urias at third base in the short term, but if either player requires a stint on the injured list the team will likely need to deep into its depth in order to fill out the roster. Deadline addition Trevor Rogers is on the 40-man roster and could return to the rotation is Kremer misses time, though he was optioned after posting a disastrous 7.11 ERA in his first four starts as an Oriole. On the positional side, meanwhile, non-roster veterans like J.D. Davis or Jean Segura could provide infield depth for the club if Urias ends up going on the shelf.

Orioles Notes: Holliday, Means, Kremer

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The Orioles placed Jackson Holliday on the minor league injured list yesterday. Despite the lack of impact on the club’s active roster, the move nonetheless raised eyebrows thanks to Holliday’s status as the consensus #1 overall prospect in the sport. Fortunately, club GM Mike Elias told reporters (including MASN’s Melanie Newman) that Holliday is dealing with a “barking” shoulder but that the issue isn’t serious and that he’s expected to need only a “few weeks” of rest before he returns to action.

That’s surely a relief for fans in Baltimore, as Holliday figures to join fellow youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez as a key part of the core for the Orioles going forward once he establishes himself at the big league level. The 20-year-old infielder got his first taste of big league action earlier this year but struggled badly with a with just two hits in 36 trips to the plate across ten games. That tough stretch led the Orioles to send Holliday back to the minors, and he’s continued to hit well at the Triple-A level since his return with a .252/.418/.429 slash line in 189 trips to the plate.

That being said, Holliday has struggled (at least by his own lofty standards) in the month of June so far, hitting just .212 with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a .394 slugging percentage, although his proclivity for drawing walks has allowed him to remain productive over all. Between the youngster’s relative struggles and his apparent elbow issue, it’s hardly a surprise that the Orioles have decided to play it safe with their prized prospect. Fortunately for fans in Baltimore, the Orioles lineup has played incredibly well to this point in the season and is hardly in need of reinforcements. The club’s 116 wRC+ is the third best figure in baseball this year, and Jorge Mateo has posted a decent .236/.281/.441 (103 wRC+) slash line while getting the lion’s share of playing time at Holliday’s likely long term position of second base.

In other news around the Orioles, southpaw John Means recently underwent his second Tommy John surgery in just over two years after making four starts for Baltimore late in the 2023 campaign and another four starts this year. Despite the surely frustrating physical setbacks, however, Means recently told reporters (including Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball) that he fully intends to return to pitching after he completes his post-surgery rehab, which will sideline him for the entire 2024 season and much of 2025.

“I still want to pitch, honestly,” Means said (per Dubroff). “I’d like to fail on the field before I give it up. I feel like if I go there, I can still pitch and get outs. I still feel really confident about my ability. I have to have my elbow keep up.”

For all of Means’s struggles in terms of staying on the field, he’s certainly been effective when healthy. The southpaw has a career 3.68 ERA with a 4.56 FIP across his 401 innings of work in the majors, and although he’s managed just ten starts since the beginning of the 2022 campaign he’s been nothing short of excellent in them with a 2.75 ERA and 3.99 FIP in 52 1/3 innings of work. Given those strong results, it’s not hard to imagine Means, 31, returning to action as an effective and valuable starter once he’s finally healthy. It’s unclear whether or not that return will come in an Orioles uniform, however, as the lefty is set to become a free agent after the 2024 campaign.

With Means and Tyler Wells both sidelined by UCL surgery and ace righty Kyle Bradish dealing with UCL issues of his own, the Baltimore rotation is in a bit of a tough spot. While Corbin Burnes and Rodriguez combine to form a strong top of the rotation, the club has been left to rely on Cole Irvin, Cade Povich, and Albert Suarez to round out the group due to a number of injuries. Fortunately, help could be on the way soon for the club as MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes that right-hander Dean Kremer is expected to begin a rehab assignment with a “40-ish” pitch outing tomorrow.

MLB.com goes on to note that it remains up in the air whether or not Kremer will need another rehab start before returning to the Orioles, meaning the 28-year-old could potentially return to action for the club as soon as sometime late next week. The return of Kremer, who has been on the injured list for a little less than a month due to a triceps strain, would provide reliable innings for the Orioles pitching staff. Since the start of the 2022 season, Kremer has pitched to a solid 3.83 ERA (103 ERA+) with a 4.30 FIP in 348 innings of work for Baltimore.

AL East Notes: Soto, Kremer, Tiedemann

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Yankees fans received an update regarding the status of superstar outfielder Juan Soto today after he underwent imaging on his forearm yesterday. Manager Aaron Boone spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic) this afternoon prior to the club’s scheduled game against the Dodgers about the young star’s status and noted that while a trip to the injured list “remains a possibility” for Soto, the club doesn’t currently anticipate one being necessary. Even so, Boone added that it could be at least “a couple” of days before Soto returns to the lineup as the club continues to be cautious about the injury.

That Soto is expected to avoid an IL stint is surely a relief for the Yankees, as their biggest offseason acquisition has carried the club offensively alongside Aaron Judge to this point in the season. Even by his own lofty standards, the young star has gotten off to an excellent start this year with a .318/.424/.603 slash line in 290 trips to the plate since the Yankees acquired him from the Padres in a blockbuster deal that sent a multi-player packaged headlined by righty Michael King to San Diego. A significant absence by Soto would be particularly devastating for the Yankees seeing as the 25-year-old has helped to pick up the club’s offense amid struggles from key regulars like Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres.

With Soto temporarily out of action, Trent Grisham figures to receive regular starts in the outfield, taking on the center field job and kicking Judge back to his previous role as the club’s everyday right fielder. If Soto were to ultimately require a trip to the shelf, it’s possible the Yankees could turn to youngster Everson Pereira to fill out their outfield mix. The well-regarded prospect struggled in his first taste of big league action last year but has slashed a solid .265/.346/.512 at the Triple-A level this season.

More to come…

  • Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer is making progress in his rehab from a triceps strain that sent him to the injured list late last month, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun) earlier this afternoon. As Meyer notes, Hyde indicated that Kremer is set to throw a bullpen within the next few days, with Hyde adding that “everything is trending in the right direction” regarding his recovery. While Hyde did not place a timeline on the right-hander beginning a rehab assignment to the minor leagues, a speedy return by Kremer would surely be a huge relief to an Orioles club that will be without both Tyler Wells and John Means for the remainder of the 2024 campaign. As things stand, the club is relying on Albert Suarez, Cole Irvin, and Cade Povich to fill out the rotation behind Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, and Grayson Rodriguez.
  • Blue Jays top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann was thought to be on the cusp of his big league debut entering the 2024 campaign, but those plans were scuttled when he was sidelined just eight innings into his season by inflammation of the ulnar nerve in his elbow. While it’s certainly fortunate that the lefty avoided any structural damage, the injury has nonetheless left him sidelined for the majority of the season. Fortunately, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi relayed earlier today that, according to Toronto manager John Schneider, Tiedemann threw a live bullpen yesterday where “everything went well.” Schneider went on to note that the next step for Tiedemann could be a rehab game either with Single-A Dunedin or perhaps with the club’s Florida Complex League team.

Orioles Place Dean Kremer On Injured List

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The Orioles announced that they have recalled right-hander Dillon Tate and left-hander Nick Vespi. In corresponding moves, right-hander Jonathan Heasley has been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk while righty Dean Kremer has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right triceps strain. Kremer’s IL move is retroactive to May 21.

The Orioles have not yet provided any information about the severity of Kremer’s injury, but it will provide the Orioles with a challenge nonetheless. Just a week ago, the club began a stretch of playing 42 games in 44 days and was planning to go to a six-man rotation to keep their starters fresh. However, John Means landed on the injured list yesterday due to a forearm strain and now Kremer is on the shelf as well.

That leaves Baltimore with a rotation of Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez. The latter two were also on the IL earlier this year, though each was reinstated this month. Cole Irvin and Albert Suárez were each in the rotation earlier this year but had been bumped to the bullpen. With the injury bug biting this week, both of them may have to return to starting roles.

That plan will come with a couple of challenges. Irvin threw 56 pitches in a relief outing on Wednesday and may not be available for a couple more days. Suárez was stretched out earlier this year but it’s been about two weeks since he pitched more than an inning.

Even if the O’s can find a way to smoothly transition Irvin and Suárez back to the rotation, that still leaves them with just five starters when they had planned on having six. Perhaps they consider that acceptable, but with Bradish and Rodriguez having already missed time this year, getting them a bit of extra rest during this tough part of the schedule could still be a priority.

Bruce Zimmermann is on the 40-man roster but has been on the minor league IL for almost two weeks now due to a hamstring strain. Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott, two of the club’s top pitching prospects, are pitching well in Triple-A but neither is on the 40-man roster.

Whatever the Orioles are planning, more information may be forthcoming this weekend. Burnes is taking the ball tonight but Kremer was scheduled for Saturday. Both Bradish and Rodriguez pitched too recently to take the ball on normal rest by tomorrow.

The Orioles Rotation Is In Better Shape Than You Might Think

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The Orioles have been defined by defying expectations all season long. The club was afforded just 1.3% odds of winning the AL East over at Fangraphs when the 2023 season began back in March, with a projected record of just 76-86 that made them the only team in their division projected to finish below .500. Despite those long odds, however, Baltimore’s youngsters managed to propel themselves to a 101-win season that placed them firmly atop not only their division, but the entire AL, as only the Braves won more games in 2023.

Despite the club’s regular season success, however, the club was still far from favored in the postseason race. Entering October, the Orioles were given just a 6.5% chance of winning the World Series, odds worse than not just the Braves but also the Dodgers, Astros, and even their division-rival Blue Jays. Concern over Baltimore’s ability to translate their regular season success into the postseason seems to revolve primarily around one thing: the club’s pitching staff.

While the loss of closer Felix Bautista to Tommy John surgery hurts the club’s bullpen, much of the concern regarding the Orioles has been directed toward the club’s starting rotation. It’s not hard to see why; the club’s 10.7 fWAR from the rotation this season is just 16th in the majors, better than only the Dodgers among playoff teams. Other metrics are similarly lukewarm on Baltimore’s group: they rank 11th in rotation ERA, 13th in rotation FIP, and 16th in strikeout rate.

When looking at the individual pieces of the club’s rotation, it’s easy to see why the club’s overall numbers are uninspiring. Throughout the 2023 campaign, the Orioles relied on nine pitchers to start games of them: Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Jack Flaherty, John Means, and Keegan Akin. Only Means (157), Bradish (146) and Wells (113) posted better than average seasons by measure of ERA+, and only Bradish remains in the club’s rotation for the ALDS after Means was scratched from the roster due to elbow soreness and Wells moved to the bullpen late in the year.

Given this mediocre production from the rotation, it’s easy to think that the club’s decision this offseason to make only minor tweaks to the rotation, replacing Jordan Lyles with Gibson and trading for Irvin, was a major misstep. The reality of the situation is more complicated, however, as the Orioles are set up fairly well for success both in the postseason this year and looking ahead to 2024.

The primary reason for that is a simple one: the starting group in Baltimore improved significantly over the course of the season. Not only did the return of Means in September provide the club with a quality mid-rotation option who could return in later rounds of the postseason and figures to be a staple of the club’s 2024 rotation, but several players took steps forward in the second half. Each of Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer ranked in the top 20 among starters in ERA after the All Star break, with Bradish (2.34) and Rodriguez (2.58) both ranking in the top five. No other team in baseball had three starts as effective at run prevention during the second half, with only the Brewers (Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta) and Rangers (Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery) even having two.

The most obvious success story for the Orioles this year is Bradish, who the club acquired from the Angels in the deal that sent Dylan Bundy to Anaheim back in 2019. After a difficult rookie campaign that saw Bradish post a 4.80 ERA and 4.46 FIP in 23 starts, the right-hander’s sophomore season in 2023 has been a resounding success. Bradish has improved in virtually every aspect of his game this year, with improvements in strikeout rate (25% in 2023), walk rate (6.6%), groundball rate (49.2%), and barrel rate (6.9%). Taken together, those stronger peripherals have allowed Bradish to post a 2.83 ERA in 168 2/3 innings of work that’s surpassed only by Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole among AL starters, with a 3.27 FIP that ranks fifth-best in the AL behind Gray, Cole, Zach Eflin and Kevin Gausman.

It’s nearly as easy to see the success of Rodriguez, who figures to start Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rangers this afternoon. After being promoted to the majors for his big league debut in early April, the 23-year-old hurler struggled badly in his first taste of big league action, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.90 FIP across his first ten starts in the big leagues. That prompted the Orioles to send Rodriguez back to Triple-A, where he very quickly found his footing with a microscopic 1.69 ERA across 37 1/3 innings of work. Upon his return to the majors in mid-July, Rodriguez looked like a completely different pitcher. In addition to his aforementioned 2.58 ERA across 13 second-half starts ranking fifth-best in the majors over that timeframe, Rodriguez also boasted a 2.76 FIP thanks to a 24% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and a whopping 52.7% groundball rate that paired with a 3.8% barrel rate to allow Rodriguez to suppress home runs in the second half better than any other starter in the majors.

Kremer is a somewhat different case, as the 2023 campaign has actually been something of a down year for him after he posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.80 FIP across 125 1/3 innings of work last year. The right-hander’s 2023 campaign has had the look of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm overall, with a 4.15 ERA that’s exactly league average by measure of ERA+ and a 4.51 FIP. That said, the second half of his 2023 campaign has lent credence to his 2022 numbers as he’s posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 14 starts since the All Star break this year.

With Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer as the club’s top three options in the ALDS, the Orioles are in a recoverable position even after dropping Game 1 to the Rangers yesterday afternoon. What’s more, the club has a strong foundation for their rotation as they look ahead to the offseason and the 2024 campaign, as the aforementioned trio and Means are all under team control and figure to occupy rotation spots next year.

With four solid, average-or-better rotation arms locked in for 2024, the club is in a much stronger place than they were this time last year, when Kremer appeared to be the closest thing to a known commodity the Orioles had available after his first season as a regular starter. That should give GM Mike Elias and the club’s front office plenty of confidence in looking to add another arm to round out the club’s 2024 rotation this offseason on a free agent market that offers plenty of interesting options.

Latest On Orioles’ Rotation

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The Orioles haven’t gotten much production from their rotation through the first couple weeks. Baltimore starters entered play Wednesday with a 6.23 ERA that ranked 26th in the majors, while their strikeout and walk rates are middle-of-the-pack.

Top prospect Grayson Rodriguez has been part of those struggles, allowing seven runs in 9 1/3 innings in his first two MLB starts. While the results haven’t been great, the highly-touted righty has shown the high-octane stuff that has intrigued evaluators and fans for years. He’s averaging 97 MPH on his heater and has gotten swinging strikes on an excellent 13.2% of his pitches.

After Rodriguez’s start against the A’s on Tuesday, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters the rookie would get another turn through the rotation (relayed by Roch Kuabtko of MASNsports.com). Assuming the club stays on schedule, Rodriguez is lined up to take the ball against Dylan Cease and the White Sox on Sunday.

The O’s didn’t break camp with Rodriguez in the rotation. Baltimore called him up last week after losing Kyle Bradish to the 15-day injured list because of a right foot contusion. Bradish’s injury was never expected to be serious and he’s already set for a rehab assignment. Hyde told reporters the righty will take the ball for Double-A Bowie on Friday (via Andy Kostka of Baltimore Banner). That’d seemingly put Bradish on track to be reinstated when first eligible on April 19.

Hyde downplayed the possibility of rolling with a six-man rotation. If the O’s want to stick with a five-man starting staff, they’d have to make a decision once Bradish is activated from the IL (barring an intervening injury). Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin are locks to hold jobs, which would seemingly squeeze one of Bradish, Rodriguez, Tyler Wells or Dean Kremer out of the group.

Kremer, in particular, is off to a rough start. The 27-year-old has been tagged for 13 runs in 12 1/3 innings across three appearances, surrendering five home runs in that limited stretch. Kremer had been one of Baltimore’s most effective starters last year, when he posted a 3.23 ERA in 125 1/3 frames. Dan Connolly of the Athletic wrote last night that Kremer’s hold on a rotation spot could be tenuous if he continues to scuffle. That came before the righty surrendered four runs and allowed homers to Brent Rooker and Carlos Pérez in 4 1/3 frames during tonight’s loss to Oakland.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Sorting Through The Orioles’ Rotation Options

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The Orioles headed into the winter intent on adding a pair of veterans to the rotation, and while there was a substantial layoff between their first and second additions, with Kyle Gibson signing a one-year deal back on Dec. 5 and Cole Irvin not joining the staff until last Friday’s trade. That gives the O’s a pair of veterans who are plenty capable of eating up innings while still also leaving a fairly wide-open window for several younger arms to pitch their way into the team’s plans.

In all likelihood, the Orioles will wind up using ten or more starters over the course of the season. It’s commonplace for teams to cycle through far more than the five (or six) members of the Opening Day rotation — particularly younger teams like Baltimore, where the rotation will be composed primarily of yet-unproven starters and/or prospects whose workloads will be handled with care.

Locks

Kyle Gibson, RHP: Whether by design or by happenstance, the decision to bring in Gibson over 2022 staff innings leader Jordan Lyles wound up being a cost-neutral gambit, which will lead to inevitable comparisons between the two. The Orioles bought Lyles’ $11MM club option out for $1MM, then turned around and invested the exact same $10MM they saved into a one-year deal with Gibson.

The 35-year-old Gibson, like Lyles, is a workhorse by today’s standards. He’s averaged 29.875 starts per 162-game season, dating back to 2014, and made a full slate of 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has a below-average strikeout rate with solid command and above-average ground-ball tendencies. The O’s are going to count on him for 30-plus starts and 160-plus innings, although if they’re not in contention when the trade deadline rolls around, it’s easy to see them putting Gibson on the market.

Cole Irvin, LHP: For the second time in as many weeks, I’m listing Irvin as a “lock” in a team’s rotation while profiling their various options on the back end of the staff. As noted on that rundown of the A’s rotation, there was always a chance that Irvin could be moved, though a midseason deal felt likelier. The O’s instead jumped to add Irvin as a durable source of innings.

Over the past two seasons, he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate as a member of Oakland’s rotation. That’ll be the type of production they’re looking for not just this year but for the next several seasons. Irvin is controlled for another four years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason.

There’s some risk in acquiring Irvin, who’s had far more success at the spacious Oakland Coliseum than on the road. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA pitching in Oakland, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash. The O’s recently made their left field dimensions quite a bit more pitcher-friendly, but Irvin will still be facing some righty-heavy lineups within the AL East.

Pitchers who made 15+ starts in 2022

Dean Kremer, RHP: Kremer, 27, finished second on the Orioles with 125 1/3 innings pitched and notched a tidy 3.23 ERA last season despite a tepid 17% strikeout rate. Kremer, acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, doesn’t miss bats or keep the ball on the ground, but he has a better-than-average walk rate. Any regression in his 0.79 HR/9 mark or his 77.8% left-on-base rate — he entered the season at 2.12 and 65.1%, respectively — could spike his ERA closer to his 4.54 SIERA. That said, Kremer at least looks the part of a back-of-the-rotation arm. And, now that he’s poised to take on a larger workload, he should at least be a decent source of average-ish innings.

Kyle Bradish, RHP: One of four minor leaguers acquired in the trade sending Dylan Bundy to the Angels, Bradish ranked third on the 2022 O’s with 117 2/3 innings pitched. He missed more bats and generated more grounders than Kremer but was also more prone to both walks and home runs. Bradish’s 4.90 ERA isn’t much to look at, but while fielding-independent metrics feel Kremer had some good fortune in ’22, the opposite is true of Bradish, whose FIP, SIERA, etc. are all quite a bit lower than his earned run average. Both pitchers seem capable of turning in an ERA in the low- or mid-4.00s over 150-plus innings.

Spenser Watkins, RHP: A former 30th-round pick by the Tigers, Watkins signed with the O’s as a minor league free agent in Jan. 2021 and debuted as a 29-year-old rookie later that season. He tallied 105 1/3 innings for the 2022 Orioles, posting a 4.70 ERA along the way. Among the 156 pitchers with at least 150 innings thrown since 2021, no one has posted a lower strikeout rate than Watkins’ 13.7%. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate is fifth-lowest among that group. Watkins has good command and has posted solid numbers in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he feels like more of a depth option based on his big league work to date.

Tyler Wells, RHP: Baltimore’s most effective starter for much of the 2022 season, Wells carried a 3.09 ERA through his first 16 starts but needed a .225 average on balls in play to get there. That minimal BABIP and a 16.7% strikeout rate made the ERA look fairly dubious, and Wells indeed struggled mightily over his final few starts of the season. It should be noted that he missed more than a month due to a side injury and landed back on the shelf due to shoulder trouble to close out the year, but he nonetheless yielded a 7.39 ERA over his final 28 innings (seven starts). None of Wells, Kremer or Bradish miss bats at a particularly high level, nor do they possess elite command or ground-ball tendencies. They each have some appealing traits, however, and any of this trio could be a viable fourth/fifth starter.

Austin Voth, RHP: Continuing on that trend, Voth is another fly-ball pitcher with passable but not eye-catching strikeout and walk numbers. Claimed off waivers from the Nationals in early June, Voth made 17 starts and five relief appearances, pitching to a 3.04 ERA in that time. He’s not going to keep stranding 82% of the baserunners he allows — that’s 10 percentage points above the league average and above Voth’s career mark prior to 2022 — but he has the makings of a back-end starter, as he’s shown on occasion with the Nats in the past. Voth is out of minor league options, so he’s going to be on the roster either as a starter or as a swingman.

The Top Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP: The arm on which so many Orioles fans are pinning their hopes, the 23-year-old Rodriguez might have already made his big league debut were it not for a lat strain that sidelined him for half the 2022 season. Rodriguez, selected with the No. 11 pick of the 2018 draft, ranks among the sport’s top 15 overall prospects at each of Baseball America (6), MLB.com (7), ESPN (12) and The Athletic (15). A 6’5″, 220-pound righty armed with a four-pitch mix that’s headlined by an upper-90s heater and elite changeup, Rodriguez has genuine front-of-the-rotation potential.

Rodriguez is regarded as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects, and now that the new CBA actually reward teams for promoting prospects via potential draft compensation based on Rookie of the Year voting, Rodriguez will have a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day rotation. The O’s may want to be cautious, as that lat strain limited him to just 75 2/3 innings in 2022 and a jump to a full season of MLB starts would probably more than double that total. Rodriguez might be the organization’s best starter right now, even though he hasn’t made his MLB debut. He posted a combined 2.62 ERA across three minor league levels and did so with a mammoth 36.6% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. He’s going to make his MLB debut in 2023 — it’s just a matter of when.

DL Hall, LHP: Unlike Rodriguez, Hall has already made his debut at the MLB level, although it didn’t go as the team had hoped. The former No. 21 overall pick pitched in 11 games — 10 of them relief appearances — but was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA wasn’t particularly encouraging, but Hall fanned 19 opponents (29.7%) and issued walks at a lower clip in the Majors than he had in Triple-A (9.4% versus 14.2%).

Command issues have long been the primary flaw scouts see in Hall — a 6’2″ lefty with a heater that averaged 96.4 mph during that MLB debut and multiple plus or better secondary pitches. Baseball America pegs Hall’s fastball as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, while also crediting him with a plus-plus slider, a plus curve and a plus changeup. Unfortunately, all of that is accompanied by well below-average command. Hall has walked 13.4% of his opponents in the minors, and in his 18 minor league starts this past season, he completed six innings just once. Some of that is the Orioles being cautious with an arm they hold in high regard, but Hall averaged 75 pitches per outing despite averaging under four innings per start. Certainly, he could stand to be more efficient.

Last year’s 98 innings were a career-high for Hall, who’s also missed ample time due to injury in his pro career. Between the lack of innings and the shaky command, many scouting reports feel he’s likelier to be a dynamic reliever than a starter, but the O’s will likely give him some considerable leash as a starter because the ceiling is so high.

Other options on the 40-man

Mike Baumann, RHP: The 27-year-old Baumann was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects as recently as two years ago, but a flexor strain cost him time and he hasn’t topped 100 innings in either of the past two seasons. The O’s have begun working Baumann out of the bullpen more frequently, and given the number of rotation options the organization has, that could be a better path to the big leagues for him. There’s benefit to keeping him stretched out as a starter, of course, but Baumann made just 13 starts to 20 relief appearances last year.

Bruce Zimmermann, LHP: A local product the O’s acquired in the trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves back in 2018, Zimmermann has pitched in parts of three seasons for the O’s but never posted an ERA south of 5.00. In 145 MLB frames, he carries a 5.69 ERA (5.78 FIP, 4.43 SIERA) with a low 17.6% strikeout rate but a strong 5.7% walk rate. Zimmermann has averaged just 91.3 mph on his heater, and opponents have teed off on both that pitch and his changeup, clubbing an average of 2.23 homers per nine innings against the southpaw. Zimmermann still has a pair of option years remaining and has been good in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he needs to find a way to curtail his issues with the long ball.

Drew Rom, LHP: The O’s selected Rom to the 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 fourth-rounder split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, logging a combined 4.43 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and solid ground-ball tendencies. He’s not an overpowering lefty, but he’s pretty close to big league ready and the O’s clearly felt he’d have been poached in the Rule 5 had he gone unprotected. There are a lot of candidates for innings in Baltimore, but he’ll be in the mix to debut this year.

Recovering from injury

John Means, LHP: Baltimore’s best starter from 2019-21, Means logged a 3.73 ERA in 345 1/3 innings during that time and was named the Orioles’ Opening Day starter in 2022. He made just two starts last year before an elbow injury shelved him, however, and Means underwent Tommy John surgery in late April. That’ll take him out of the equation early in the year, but the O’s can hope for Means to return at some point over the summer. He only has two years of club control remaining.

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As things stand, the Orioles have two veteran locks (Gibson, Irvin), a series of righties who achieved solid results despite middling K/BB and batted-ball profiles in 2022 (Kremer, Bradish, Wells, Voth) and a pair electric prospects (Rodriguez, Hall) — the former of which is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball.

It’s a promising group, but the O’s will need to convert on Rodriguez and either see Hall improve his command or another young arm (e.g. Cade Povich) take a pronounced step forward in 2023. Baltimore’s system is rife with high-end bats but less stocked with arms. A rotation featuring Rodriguez (assuming he hits the ground running) and a host of No. 4 types is enough to compete, but it’s still a bit surprising that the team didn’t land a higher-profile arm this winter in an effort to bolster the starting staff. Perhaps the O’s are confident that an incumbent arm is on the cusp of a breakout, but right now Baltimore’s lineup looks more formidable than its rotation.

Injury Notes: Clevinger, Kittredge, Kremer, Gregorius

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The Padres announced that right-hander Mike Clevinger has been reinstated from the injured list, with outfielder Brent Rooker being optioned in a corresponding move. After a lengthy absence from the majors while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Clevinger had to return to the IL after just three starts due to a triceps strain. Thankfully, he only required a minimum stay on the shelf and is quickly back on the roster, starting today’s game.

While many teams around the league are dealing with mounting injuries to their pitching staffs, the Padres now have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to their starting rotation. Clevinger joins Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Joe Musgrove, MacKenzie Gore and Blake Snell, with Nick Martinez likely getting bumped into a long-relief role. The club is off to a great start, sporting a record of 32-21, just three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. The strength of their rotation has played a big role in that, as their collective 3.11 ERA is fourth-best in all of baseball, trailing only the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros.

Some other IL reinstatements from around the league…

  • The Rays announced that righty Andrew Kittredge has been reinstated from the injured list, with fellow righty Calvin Faucher being optioned to make room for him. Kittredge was slowed by some lower back tightness but is able to return after a minimum stay on the injured list. Last year, he threw 71 2/3 innings with a 1.88 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 53.5% ground ball rate. That success earned him a key role in the bullpen, as he eventually earned eight saves and seven holds. He wasn’t able to continue that this year, possibly due to this back injury. Over 18 innings, his ERA is an even 3.00, with a 19.7% strikeout rate and 44.2% grounder rate, though he’s limited walks to just 1.5% of batters faced.
  • The Orioles reinstated righty Dean Kremer from the injured list today, with fellow righty Denyi Reyes being optioned in a corresponding move. Kremer landed on the injured list back in April due to an oblique strain. He is starting today’s ballgame for the O’s, which will be his season debut. His MLB time has been on the rough side so far, as his career ERA is currently 6.84 through 72 1/3 innings. However, while rehabbing from this injury, he’s thrown nine scoreless innings in the minors with a whopping 18 strikeouts against just two walks.
  • The Phillies announced that they have reinstated Didi Gregorius from the IL, with Nick Maton trading places with him, heading to the IL due to a right shoulder sprain. Gregorius returns after about a month on the IL due to a left knee sprain. Prior to that, he was hitting .288/.338/.356 on the season. The resulting 97 wRC+ indicates that his bat has been about 3% worse than league average, though it’s still a big improvement over last year’s wRC+ of 68. Maton was just recalled a few days ago to provide help in the middle infield when Jean Segura landed on the IL, but will now join him on the shelf after just two games. Without those two options, it’s likely that Gregorious, Bryson Stott and Johan Camargo will now share the middle infield duties.

Orioles Select Spenser Watkins

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The Orioles have selected the contract of right-hander Spenser Watkins, manager Brandon Hyde announced to reporters Monday (Twitter link via Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun). Baltimore also recalled right-hander Alexander Wells from Triple-A Norfolk and placed righty Dean Kremer on the 10-day injured list due to an oblique strain. Outfielder DJ Stewart was optioned to Norfolk last night, so Watkins and Wells will fill the vacancies created by that move and by Kremer’s placement on the IL. Baltimore’s 40-man roster had previously been at 39 players, but it’s now full following Watkins’ selection.

This will be the second straight season that the 29-year-old Watkins has logged big league time in Baltimore. The longtime Tigers farmhand made his big league debut in Baltimore last year after signing a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason. Watkins had solid numbers in eight Triple-A games (six starts), pitching to a 3.53 ERA with a 20.4% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate in that time.

The big leagues were another story, however. Opponents jumped on him for 49 runs in just 54 2/3 innings — an 8.07 ERA. Watkins started off his big league career with just three runs through his first 16 1/3 innings, and he closed out the 2021 season with a more solid stretch of three runs allowed in his final 7 2/3 frames. The middle stretch of games proved brutal, however, as he served up 43 runs in 31 innings over seven starts and one relief appearance. Watkins has a 3.86 ERA in 625 1/3 innings at the minor league level, and he’ll now aim to carry some of that success over in his second go-around in the Majors.

As for the 25-year-old Wells, he signed with the O’s as an international free agent out of Australia back in 2015. He, too, made his MLB debut in Baltimore last season and experienced a rough set of results, serving up 32 runs in 42 2/3 innings (6.75 ERA). As with Watkins, Wells has considerably better numbers in the minors, where he’s pitched to a 2.87 ERA in 529 2/3 innings. That includes a 3.29 ERA in 54 2/3 Triple-A frames last year. Wells has punched out just 19.6% of his minor league opponents in his career, but he also boasts an outstanding 3.9% walk rate.

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