As the Blue Jays opened Spring Training, general manager Ross Atkins met with reporters yesterday. The GM implied the bulk of the club’s offseason activity was complete, minimizing the chance of making an impactful free agent strike without offloading someone from the roster.
“At this point, additions that would be of significance would mean some level of subtraction,” Atkins said (link via Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic). “We feel good about the team that we have. Feel good about the work that’s been done over the last five offseasons, the last four trade deadlines and now coming into another trade deadline, we’ll have another opportunity, I hope, that we’re in a strong position to add to that team (and) I know that we will.”
It wasn’t quite as firm a declaration that the team was finished with notable acquisitions as executives with other clubs (i.e. Nationals, Rangers) have made. Atkins noted the Jays remain in contact with player representatives as a large number of free agents are still unsigned. It nevertheless downplays the chance of Toronto jumping in on anything more than depth additions.
That’s an apparent reflection of a franchise-high payroll. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending in the $236MM range. Their competitive balance tax figure sits around $249MM, into the first tier of luxury tax penalization. Toronto paid the tax a year ago, so they’re subject to heightened penalties. They’re taxed at a 30% rate on spending up to $257MM and a 42% rate on the next $20MM, with higher penalties in the unlikely event they push past the $277MM mark.
On the one hand, the Jays have pushed their Opening Day spending past last year’s approximate $210MM figure. Team president Mark Shapiro suggested at the beginning of the offseason they anticipated keeping payroll steady. They have instead increased spending. Yet the Jays have also come up empty on their most significant free agent swings. They’d been linked to high-profile targets from Shohei Ohtani to Jorge Soler.
Their largest guarantee was a five-year, $32MM pact for Cuban swingman Yariel Rodríguez. They signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15MM deal and inked one-year pacts with Justin Turner ($13MM) and Kevin Kiermaier ($10.5MM).
While Atkins didn’t address any specific free agents — team personnel are prohibited from declaring themselves out of the market on individual players — his comments seem most notable with regards to Matt Chapman. The Jays appeared an on-paper fit to bring Chapman back. Their closest direct replacement at third base is Kiner-Falefa. Coming off a .242/.306/.340 platform showing that is broadly in line with his career numbers, Kiner-Falefa is better suited as a utility player for a team with playoff aspirations.
Toronto also allowed Whit Merrifield to hit free agency. He’s expected to make his signing decision within the coming days. While a return to Toronto isn’t out of the question, the Jays look content to allow a handful of multi-positional types to battle for playing time at second and third base.
Beyond Kiner-Falefa, the Jays have Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement and prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez on the 40-man roster. None of Martinez, Jimenez or Barger has played in the majors. All three have reached Triple-A, although Jimenez struggled in a brief look there last year. They’re longer shots to make the Opening Day roster. Veteran Eduardo Escobar will also be in camp after agreeing to a minor league contract last night.
Biggio, Espinal and Schneider are virtual locks to make the team. They’ve all shown flashes in their careers but none is a clear everyday player. Biggio had a league average .235/.340/.370 line over 339 plate appearances a season ago. After posting solid offensive numbers in his first two seasons, he has been an average or slightly worse hitter three years running.
Espinal was a surprising All-Star selection amidst an impressive 2022 campaign. His production dropped precipitously last year, as he hit .248/.310/.335 over 254 plate appearances. Schneider had a scorching start to his MLB career after being called up last August. He raked at a .426/.526/.894 clip over his first few weeks before slumping to a .174/.321/.406 line while striking out a third of the time in September. It was still an extremely impressive debut showing in aggregate, yet he’ll have to make his own adjustments as he faces MLB pitching over a full season for the first time. Clement, meanwhile, has been a utility player throughout his career. He’s out of options, so he’d have to secure a spot on the Opening Day bench or be placed on waivers.
Manager John Schneider told reporters yesterday that Biggio is a bit delayed after battling tendinitis in his left shoulder this offseason (relayed by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). He is not yet facing live pitching. Assuming he’s ready by Opening Day, he’s likely to compete with Kiner-Falefa and Espinal at third base. Davis Schneider has split his time in the minors fairly evenly between second and third. John Schneider said that Davis Schneider is focused on second base and left field as his main positions for the upcoming season (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet).
