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David Bednar

The David Bednar Question

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David Bednar has been the subject of trade speculation for the past few seasons. For the most part, that was a testament to his effectiveness. Bednar broke out as a leverage reliever with 60 2/3 innings of 2.23 ERA ball during his first season with the Pirates in 2021. He carried that into the ninth inning. Between 2022-23, the big righty combined for a 2.27 ERA while striking out more than 30% of batters faced over 111 appearances. He locked down 58 games, including an NL-leading 39 saves in 2023.

That production came on rebuilding teams. Pittsburgh was nowhere close to the postseason. Other teams no doubt tried to pry Bednar away, but the Bucs never seemed interested in moving him. He’s a Pittsburgh native who looked like a lockdown late-game weapon. The Bucs control him through 2026 and surely envisioned fielding a playoff team before then.

Bednar could resurface as a trade candidate in the coming weeks but under much different circumstances. He’s coming off by far the worst season of his career. The question now is not whether the Pirates should sell high on an affordable, breakout closer. It’s whether to move on in a cost-saving measure at a time when his trade value has hit a low ebb.

Even with the understanding that reliever performance can be volatile, Bednar’s 2024 season is confounding. After rattling off consecutive sub-3.00 performances in his first three full seasons, he allowed 5.77 earned runs per nine this year. That’s not a reflection of poor batted ball results that could be dismissed as luck. Bednar’s peripherals tanked across the board.

His strikeout rate had landed between 28% and 33% in each of his first three years. That fell to 22.1% this past season, slightly below the league average for relievers. Bednar’s walk percentage jumped from the 7-8% range to nearly 11%. He allowed more home runs (nine) in 57 2/3 innings this year than he’d given up (seven) across 119 frames in the previous two seasons combined. Bednar lost a lot of whiffs on both his four-seam fastball and curveball compared to prior seasons. Opponents teed off on the heater, in particular, hitting .256 and connecting on six longballs.

Bednar started the season terribly, allowing 14 runs in 10 innings through the end of May. He managed much better results over the next two months, albeit without the level of swing-and-miss to which he’d been accustomed. Bednar missed a couple weeks leading into the All-Star Break with an oblique strain. The wheels came completely off coming out of the Break, as he gave up 16 runs over his next 14 2/3 frames.

The Pirates, who had plummeted from contention, pulled Bednar from the ninth inning at the end of August. By that point in the year, the focus was on getting him right going into the offseason. Bednar’s run prevention in September was better, as he allowed a manageable five runs (four earned) over 10 2/3 frames. Yet he walked another 10 hitters with nine strikeouts in mostly low-leverage spots. It wasn’t a resounding finish.

It’d be easier to explain the dip in performance if Bednar’s velocity had tanked coming back from the oblique strain. That’s not the case. His fastball averaged north of 97 MPH from the start of May onward. His 97.2 MPH average heater for the season was the highest of his career. Bednar didn’t lose any life on his splitter or curveball. His stuff hasn’t dramatically deteriorated. His results never consistently turned the corner, though.

That leaves GM Ben Cherington and his front office in a difficult spot. Bednar’s early-career dominance earned him a solid $4.51MM salary during his first run through arbitration. He’ll be due a raise even on the heels of a down year. Arbitration salaries are designed to escalate as a player accrues service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Bednar for a $6.6MM sum if tendered a contract for 2025. That’s the highest figure in Pittsburgh’s arbitration class and would make him the fourth-highest paid player on the roster as things stand.

A $6.6MM salary would be a bargain if Bednar pitched at anywhere near the level he showed from 2021-23. It’s clearly not the kind of money the Pirates (or any team) would want to devote for his ’24 results. The Pittsburgh front office annually works with a tight budget from ownership. That didn’t stop the Pirates from committing a $10.5MM salary to Aroldis Chapman last offseason, suggesting they’re willing to take some chances on talented but volatile relief pitching.

They’ll weigh the risk on Bednar alongside the need for multiple additions to a well below-average offense. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a great bullpen, though someone like Colin Holderman or waiver find Dennis Santana could get a closing opportunity if the Pirates dealt the two-time All-Star.

It’s unlikely the Bucs would non-tender Bednar. He should be too talented to give up without getting anything in return. A sell-low trade is plausible. There are presumably teams that have more budgetary flexibility than the Pirates possess that would be happy to gamble something like $6.6MM on a return to form. That’d be a tough pill for a Pittsburgh front office that has surely declined much better offers over the years than the ones that’ll be on the table this winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates Notes: Skenes, Bednar, Hayes

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After a difficult season that saw the Pirates flash signs of life in the first half with a 48-48 record before crashing to a 28-38 record after the All-Star break, Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington discussed a few of the club’s key players as they team now looks ahead toward the 2025 campaign and the coming offseason.

Chief among those was like NL Rookie of the Year favorite Paul Skenes. For all of the club’s faults this year, Skenes was the most obvious bright spot as he was nothing short of dominant practically from the moment he made his big league debut back in May. In 23 starts from then on, Skenes posted an eye-popping 1.96 ERA with an excellent 2.45 FIP. With a 33.1% strikeout rate across his 133 innings of work, Skenes was perhaps the most dominant pitcher in all of MLB this year. The one flaw in is otherwise dominant rookie campaign was volume, as Skenes threw just 160 1/3 innings of work in total this year between the major and minor leagues. That includes eight starts where Skenes failed to pass 80 pitches in his outing.

Fortunately, that seeming unwillingness to have Skenes pitch deep into games faded as his season continued, with the right-hander ultimately throwing more than 100 pitches in six of his 23 big league outings. What’s more, Cherington told reporters (including Alex Stumpf of MLB.com) that the hard-throwing righty could find himself unleashed completely next year. Cherington indicated that the Pirates do not currently plan on “any sort of hard limits” on Skenes’s innings or pitch counts headed into 2025, leaving the door open for Skenes to post an even stronger season next year should he be able to post something close to this season’s results over a full slate of 30 starts. The righty figures to headline Pittsburgh’s rotation next year, followed by Jared Jones and Mitch Keller. There’s some uncertainty at the back of the club’s rotation behind those three, but Johan Oviedo, Luis L. Ortiz, and Bailey Falter could all be in the mix for starts as well.

Looking beyond the rotation, Cherington notably also offered a vote of confidence in longtime closer David Bednar, who struggled badly throughout the 2024 campaign and was eventually removed from the closer role in late August. Bednar’s results improved over the month of September but his peripheral numbers remained shaky, as he posted a solid 3.38 ERA but walked (ten) more batters than he struck out (nine) across 10 2/3 innings of work. That left Bednar with an overall ERA of 5.77 on the year, and while his 4.80 FIP offered some reason for optimism even that figure was still worse than average as it was held back by a 10.7% walk rate.

Given Bednar’s brutal performance and a fairly considerable $6.6MM salary projection for next season courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club explore moving on from Bednar this winter. If that possibility is on the table, however, Cherington did not acknowledge it. On the contrary, Stumpf notes that Cherington suggested Bednar could even recapture the closer’s role in time for 2025. Even in spite of Bednar’s poor performance, such an outcome would hardly be a shock. After all, the club has few proven relievers under team control besides Colin Holderman and Bednar dominated to the tune of a 2.25 ERA with a 2.56 FIP over the 2021-23 seasons. If Bednar can even come close to that sort of production next year, he’d be well worth the $6.6MM investment via arbitration.

Now turning to the positional side, Cherington also provided a small update (as relayed by Stumpf) on third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. A former top-of-the-line infield prospect who enjoyed something of a breakout campaign in 2023 where he paired excellent defense with a roughly league average at, Hayes appeared sure to join Skenes, Jones, and Oneil Cruz among the club’s core this season. Instead, injuries derailed Hayes’s year completely. He was limited to just 96 games by a disc problem in his back that sent him to the injured list twice this year and left him playing through pain for the majority of the year when he was on the field. The injury marred campaign led to disastrous results, as Hayes hit just .233/.283/.290 in 396 trips to the plate alongside defensive numbers that were a far cry from previous seasons.

Difficult as 2024 was for Hayes, however, Cherington expressed optimism about the infielder’s status as he looked ahead to 2025. The GM acknowledged that there’s “always some level of concern” regarding an injured player until he’s once again on the field, but added that he believes the club is better informed about Hayes’s injury situation and that the third baseman is “excited” to return to action in 2025. When Hayes was unable to take the field this year, Jared Triolo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa were the club’s primary options at the hot corner this year. Both players are in line to return to the club next year and could continue backing up the position in the event Hayes struggles to stay on the field in 2025 as well.

Pirates Remove David Bednar From Closer Role

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The Pirates are pulling star closer David Bednar out of the ninth inning, manager Derek Shelton told the Pittsburgh beat before tonight’s loss to Cleveland. The team will go with a committee approach for now (X link via Alex Stumpf of MLB.com).

Bednar was one of the best relievers in the majors each season between 2021-23. He posted a sub-3.00 ERA with plus strikeout rates in all three years. Bednar worked as a setup option in 2021 before assuming the closing role in ’22. He made the All-Star Game in both 2022 and ’23 and topped the National League with 39 saves just last season. That’s particularly impressive on a team that finished 10 games below .500.

This year has been far less consistent. Bednar was torched for more than 11 earned runs per nine through the end of April. He turned in an excellent 2.01 earned run average in 23 appearances from the start of May through the All-Star Break, though his modest 20.7% strikeout rate suggested he still wasn’t back to peak form.

The wheels have come back off since the Midsummer Classic. Bednar has given up 16 runs (15 earned) in his last 14 2/3 innings. Opponents have teed off at a .328/.434/.531 slash in 77 plate appearances. Bednar’s strikeouts are still down (20.8%) while his walk rate has spiked to an untenable 14.3% clip. His season hit its nadir on Wednesday. Shelton called upon Bednar to protect a two-run lead against the Cubs. He allowed three hits and two walks (one of which was intentional) while recording two outs. Chicago tagged Bednar for five runs — two of which were inherited runners who scored after he was replaced by Jalen Beeks — and went on to a 14-10 win.

For the season, Bednar now carries a 6.32 ERA through 47 innings. His 22.9% strikeout percentage is six points lower than last season’s mark, which had been the lowest of his career. He’s giving up home runs at an elevated rate of 1.53 per nine innings. Bednar’s 97.2 MPH average fastball velocity is still as strong as ever. Opponents have nevertheless feasted on the pitch, connecting for six homers with a .286 average and .527 slugging mark.

Aside from Bednar, Aroldis Chapman and Colin Holderman have been Pittsburgh’s primary high-leverage arms. Holderman has been out for a few weeks with a sprained wrist, leaving Chapman as the favorite for most of the closing work. Dennis Santana and Carmen Mlodzinski are potential options to pick up save chances if Shelton wants to turn to a right-hander.

How the Pirates handle the ninth inning for the next few weeks isn’t as significant as determining whether Bednar can recapture his lockdown form. A disastrous August has tanked their playoff hopes. As the focus turns toward the offseason, the front office could face questions about Bednar’s future with the organization. Pittsburgh rebuffed trade interest when the big righty was at his peak form. They had an extended control window and probably had some designs on agreeing to an extension with the Pittsburgh native. That’s a tougher call to make coming off the worst season of Bednar’s career.

The 29-year-old is playing on a $4.15MM arbitration salary. The process is designed to escalate salaries even amidst down years, so Bednar’s price tag next year should top $5MM. His track record makes a non-tender difficult to envision, but the Pirates could entertain trading his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Pirates Could Add To Offense By Dealing From Pitching Depth

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The Pirates are scouring the trade market for ways to improve their lineup, and given the lack of pure sellers with available bats, one potential avenue the team has explored is trading from another area of its major league roster to augment the offense. General manager Ben Cherington discussed such a possibility on Sunday (link via Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), and he mentioned just today that the team has an abundance of pitching that could appeal to other clubs (also via Hiles).

Pittsburgh indeed has a deceptively deep collection of arms, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored last Wednesday in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that a back-end starter such as Bailey Falter or perhaps a late-inning relievers like Aroldis Chapman or even Colin Holderman and David Bednar could be in play if the Bucs indeed want to use their collection of arms to add a bat. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com tweets that the Pirates have been willing to deal from the bullpen to improve the lineup but also adds that some of the team’s pitching prospects could come into play.

It goes without saying that Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller don’t factor into this thinking. That excellent trio is the very foundation on which the Pirates’ staff will be built for the next several years. But the Buccos have plenty of affordable back-of-the-rotation options.

The Braves are covering all but $3MM of Marco Gonzales’ salary this season. He’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA with a 17.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate in 26 1/3 innings and has looked sharp since returning from a two-month IL stint owing to a muscle strain in his forearm. A team looking for an affordable fourth or fifth starter (e.g. Twins, Astros, Guardians) could be intrigued. Falter is currently on the injured list due to tendinitis in his triceps but should be back before long. He’s posted a 4.08 ERA in 17 starts (90 1/3 innings) while fanning 16.7% of his opponents against a 7.7% walk rate. He’s out of minor league options but controlled another four seasons beyond the 2024 campaign. Martin Perez tossed six shutout innings today but did so while issuing five walks and only lowered his ERA to 5.20 in the process. He’s earning $8MM, which makes it hard to see him bringing back a bat of note.

In terms of less-established options, the Pirates have names like Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft to peddle. Priester has gotten some MLB experience, but the former top prospect has yet to establish himself as a core rotation piece. Burrows and Ashcraft haven’t yet debuted. The former only just returned from Tommy John surgery performed last April. He’s slowly moving up the minor league ladder on a rehab assignment. The latter has had a breakout season between Double-A and Triple-A.

The Pirates surely don’t want to deplete their stock of arms too greatly, but in an ideal world, top prospect Bubba Chandler will claim a rotation spot by 2025. At that point, there’s a notable glut of arms with only one rotation spot truly open. Even if Chandler needs more time or gets hurt, Pittsburgh would still have him, Priester, Falter, Ashcraft, Burrows, Luis Ortiz and Johan Oviedo (recovering from offseason Tommy John surgery) as long-term rotation options behind Skenes, Jones and Keller.

In the bullpen, Chapman is back to his excessively wild ways. He’s fanned a mammoth 36.6% of his opponents but also issued walks at a woeful 19.5% clip. To Chapman’s credit, he’s been better in that regard after a shaky April/May showing. Over the past two months, he’s sitting on a 3.43 ERA, 35.6% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate. That’s still too many free passes, but it’s more in line with some past marks from Chapman, who has frequently been able to overcome poor command because of his blistering velocity and knack for missing bats. Overall, Chapman sports a 3.93 ERA on the season. He’s being paid $10.5MM, and the Pirates still owe him about $3.72MM as of this writing. He’s a free agent at season’s end.

Both Bednar and especially Holderman would come with greater appeal. Bednar has long frequented the pages of MLBTR in past trade deadlines and offseasons. Clubs throughout the league have targeted the Pittsburgh-area native since he established himself with his hometown club, but a deal has never come together. Now, Bednar is struggling through a career-worst season, with a 4.98 ERA in 34 1/3 innings. The shaky ERA seems tied largely to a spike in homer-to-flyball rate; from 2021-23, only 6.6% of Bednar’s fly balls became homers. This year, he’s nearly doubled that, sitting at 12.2%. Bednar is also allowing more fly balls than ever (50%), making the timing of that spike most unwelcome.

Still, there’s plenty of track record with Bednar, who from ’21-’23 posted a 2.25 ERA with 61 saves and elite strikeout and walk rates. He’s earning $4.51MM this season and is controllable through the 2026 campaign.

The 28-year-old Holderman would be difficult to trade. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible, though he will be this season as a Super Two player. Holderman is controlled four more years, all the way through 2028, and has delivered 36 2/3 innings of 1.72 ERA ball this season, fanning 28.8% of his opponents against a 10.9% walk rate. Moving on from a controllable leverage reliever of that ilk isn’t easy, though the Bucs could consider it a nifty piece of business to acquire Holderman from the Mets in exchange for Daniel Vogelbach (back in 2022) and then trade him for a more impactful bat just two years later. And with so many arms in the system behind Skenes, Keller and Jones, some of those in-house options are going to wind up in the bullpen.

Trades of Holderman and Bednar seem like a long shot, particularly since the latter would be selling low on a popular hometown All-Star. That said, the Bucs do have a large stock of arms from which to deal. Moving an established reliever/starter for a bat could open the door for any number of young, promising in-house replacements, while a more conventional swap might simply see them trade some of those prospects for immediate offensive help — ideally a bat controlled for multiple years beyond the current season.

Pirates Reinstate Marco Gonzales From Injured List

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2:40pm: The Pirates have made it official, reinstating Gonzales and designating Honeywell for assignment. They also reinstated closer David Bednar from the IL and optioned right-hander Ryder Ryan.

2:15pm: Left-hander Marco Gonzales is going to start today’s game for the Pirates, with Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette among those to relay the news on X. He’s currently on the 60-day injured list and will therefore need to be reinstated to the 40-man roster, but it was reported earlier that righty Brent Honeywell Jr. is to be designated for assignment. Unless there are other moves involved, it seems it will be a simple swap of Gonzales taking Honeywell’s spot.

Gonzales, 32, was acquired from Atlanta in the offseason and started the season in Pittsburgh’s rotation. He made three starts with a 2.65 earned run average before landing on the injured list in mid-April with a forearm strain. He now returns after missing roughly three months of the season.

The lefty has generally been a solid but not overwhelming starter over his career. In 910 career innings, he has a 4.10 ERA but with a subpar strikeout rate of 17.6%. At his best, he limits damage even if he doesn’t miss bats. In 2019, he logged over 200 innings with Seattle with a 3.99 ERA. He only punched out 17% of opponents but Statcast considered his barrel rate to be in the 87th percentile of qualified pitchers.

The Bucs could have some decisions to make about how they shape their rotation for the rest of the year. Gonzales and Martín Pérez were brought aboard in the winter to ideally serve as veteran anchors in a somewhat inexperienced group but neither has been able to achieve that so far. As mentioned, Gonzales took the ball just four times before a lengthy IL stint while Pérez also missed some time due to injury and has 14 starts with an ERA of 5.15.

In the long term, Pittsburgh seems to be well set up in the rotation with a core three of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller. Skenes has debuted this year and dominated with a 1.90 ERA through 11 starts, getting named the National League starter for the All-Star game. Jones hasn’t been quite that dominant but a 3.56 ERA through 16 starts is still quite an achievement for a rookie. Keller is in his sixth season and has a 3.40 ERA and is signed through 2028.

Jones is currently on the injured list and won’t be available for a few weeks, but the Bucs have Gonzales, Pérez, Skenes and Keller, as well as Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz. The 23-year-old Priester isn’t generating as much hype as Skenes or Jones but he has a 4.30 ERA for the Bucs this year. The 25-year-old Ortiz started the year in the bullpen has pitched so well that he’s carved out a starting gig for himself. He has a 2.95 ERA on the year with five of his last six outings being four innings or longer. Two of his last three appearances have been six-inning starts with only one earned run allowed total over those two starts.

That gives Pittsburgh six possible starters for now and seven when Jones comes back. Bailey Falter is also on the IL with left triceps tendinitis, though it’s unclear when he’ll be back. He was also having a good season before the IL stint, with a 4.08 ERA in 17 starts.

The Bucs are currently 45-48 on the year. Despite that fairly unimpressive record, they are only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot in a relatively weak National League Wild Card race and will have to figure out how to juggle these different rotation choices. Priester has options and may end up in the minors in spite of his decent results. Ortiz could end up back in the bullpen and Pérez also has some relief work on his résumé.

With all those starting options, it’s possible the Bucs look to make someone available even if they’re not truly selling at the deadline. For example, the Rays recently welcome Shane Baz back from his Tommy John layoff and were able to trade Aaron Civale to the Brewers without significantly downgrading their rotation, getting a prospect back in return. Many teams are looking for pitching but there are few clearcut sellers, so perhaps there would be interest in a veteran like Pérez or Gonzales, allowing the Bucs to use their pile of starters to add a position player or a reliever without truly harming their chances in 2024.

Whether a trade comes together or not, the Pittsburgh rotation seems to have a lot of long-term potential between Skenes, Jones, Keller, Priester, Falter and Ortiz, as well as prospects such as Braxton Ashcraft. There’s also Johan Oviedo, who will miss this season due to Tommy John surgery but should be back next year. Everyone in that group is controlled through 2027 or longer.

Pirates Notes: Jones, Bednar, Jefferies, Ryan

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The Pirates placed right-hander Jared Jones on the 15-day injured list on Thursday, and manager Derek Shelton gave the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Andrew Destin and other reporters some details on the lat strain that has put the star rookie on the shelf for the foreseeable future.  Jones suffered a Grade 2 strain and isn’t likely to throw for the next two weeks, so the team can allow him to rest and recover before checking on his progress.  If all goes well and Jones is able to restart a throwing program at that time, Jones could be on track to return perhaps by early August, based on past timelines for other pitchers who have suffered similar injuries.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Jones get a bit more recovery time, both as a precautionary measure given his importance to the Pirates’ future, and because the team was already taking steps to manage the workloads of both Jones and Paul Skenes in their mutual.  Only two of Jones’ 16 starts have come on the standard four days of rest, as the Bucs have used a six-man rotation for the majority of the season.  Jones threw a career-high 126 1/3 innings combined between Double-A and Triple-A ball in 2023, and he is up to 91 innings in the big leagues this year.

Jones’ last start on July 3 came after an 11-day break, as he had a turn in the rotation skipped in order to help keep him fresh.  Shelton didn’t think the layoff played a role in Jones’ injury, as the Pirates still had Jones take part in a live bullpen session (“We did ramp his intensity up, we still did make sure he threw“) during his 11 days between starts, and instead chalked the lat strain up the vagaries of baseball.

While it’s good news that Jones’ injury isn’t overly serious, missing him for even a month is a hit to Pittsburgh’s postseason hopes.  The Pirates are 42-45 entering today’s play but are still four games out of a wild card spot, so there is time for the team to still mount a run — or, if things go south before July 30, to explore selling at the trade deadline.

David Bednar’s status is a key factor in how the Pirates’ July might play out, and the closer made progress in his injury recovery with a live batting practice session today.  As per MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf (X link), Bednar faced five batters over the course of 21 pitches, with Bednar using his entire arsenal.  A left oblique strain sent Bednar to the 15-day IL on June 20, and while he has already missed beyond the 15-day minimum, today’s throwing session is a good sign that he might not be too far away from a minor league rehab assignment or even a straight-ahead activation.  The closer has 16 saves and a somewhat deceptive 5.17 ERA over 31 1/3 innings this season, as Bednar has been lights-out following a rough April.

Speaking of bullpen injuries, Pittsburgh called right-hander Ryder Ryan up from Triple-A today after righty Daulton Jefferies was placed on the 15-day IL.  Jefferies is dealing with discomfort in his right elbow, and the injury comes just under two months after the Pirates claimed Jefferies off waivers from the Giants.

Jefferies has a 9.82 ERA split between 10 innings for Pittsburgh (6.30 ERA) and 4 2/3 frames with San Francisco (17.36 ERA), and both clubs have optioned him back and forth from Triple-A on multiple occasions.  This marked Jefferies’ return to big league action after missing all of 2023 recovering from both a thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and then a Tommy John surgery within a six-month span in 2022.  Considering that Jefferies also had another TJ procedure earlier in his career, it isn’t a good sign that he is experiencing another bout of elbow soreness.

Pirates Place David Bednar On 15-Day Injured List

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Prior to today’s 3-1 loss to the Rays, the Pirates placed closer David Bednar on the 15-day injured list due to a left oblique strain.  The placement is retroactive to June 20.  Left-hander Justin Bruihl was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

Bednar last pitched on Wednesday, and Pirates GM Ben Cherington said in his weekly radio show (hat tip to Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) said that the right-hander “felt a little something in his left side” following that outing.  Bednar and the team took a few days to rest and evaluate the situation, but after Bednar still felt some tightness after a throwing session, an IL trip was deemed necessary.

Cherington described the placement as somewhat preventative, as Bednar’s strain is considered relatively mild and there is hope he might be able to return once his minimum 15 days are up.  As Cherington noted, “We need him for the biggest part of the season, as possible….Hopefully, that means it’s a short stay on the IL, rather than it turning into something bigger and it being a longer absence.”

The Bucs dropped to 37-40 after today’s loss, but remain just a couple of games out of a wild card berth in the very crowded NL postseason race.  A hot week could easily get Pittsburgh into a playoff position, though the team’s struggling lineup will have to start producing, and naturally losing their closer for at least 15 days won’t help the Pirates’ chances.

Owner Bob Nutting believes his team can stay in contention, and recently said that the Pirates could make some additions at the July 30 trade deadline (and possibly receive some extra payroll space to make those adds).  However, given the Bucs’ lack of offense and now this hit to their bullpen, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Pittsburgh explored being deadline sellers if the team can’t get on track, or if other NL clubs start to catch fire and create some real space in the wild card race.

Bednar’s injury could make his trade candidacy a moot point, but even if he did return in 15 days and the Pirates looked to deal some players at the deadline, it isn’t likely that he’d be on the move by July 30.  While Bednar’s name has long been linked to trade speculation, the Bucs have shown that they’re eager to properly end their rebuilding period, so it isn’t likely that they would move such an effective closer in short order.  It isn’t out of the question that the Pirates could still trade Bednar as his price tag continues to rise during his arbitration years, but that concept will likely be explored more in the offseason than within the next month.

An All-Star the last two seasons, Bednar has a 5.17 ERA over 31 1/3 innings this year due to a very rough start.  After posting an 11.45 ERA over his first 13 appearances and 11 innings, Bednar has righted the ship and delivered a 1.77 ERA across his last 21 games and 20 1/3 innings.

With Bednar sidelined, Cherington said it’ll be “all hands on deck” for closing duties.  Aroldis Chapman and Colin Holderman are the likeliest candidates to earn saves — Holderman has been the more effective of the two pitchers this season, though Chapman has a long history of past closing experience.

The Pirates could also get some bullpen reinforcements coming in the form of Ryan Borucki, as the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Kevin Gorman writes that Borucki is set to begin a minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday.  Borucki hasn’t pitched since April 5 since a case of left triceps inflammation sent him to the 15-day and then the 60-day injured list.

Injury Notes: Gausman, Kahnle, Bednar, Medina

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Kevin Gausman is dealing with “general fatigue” in his throwing shoulder, manager John Schneider told reporters (including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) on Monday morning. The Blue Jays ace underwent an MRI that fortunately revealed no structural damage or injury. While that’s clearly a relief, there’s going to be some level of concern whenever a pitcher of Gausman’s caliber is battling any kind of shoulder discomfort.

The Jays elected to have Gausman skip his scheduled throwing session on Monday. He’ll be reevaluated later in the week. There’s nothing to suggest his availability for Opening Day is in jeopardy at this point. It’s nevertheless a situation to which the Jays will pay close attention. Alek Manoah is also battling what appears to be minor shoulder soreness. They’re the bookends to a projected rotation that’ll include a middle trio of Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and José Berríos. Right-hander Bowden Francis is probably the top option to step into the season-opening starting five if anyone from that group begins the year on the shelf.

A few other pitching injury situations early this week:

  • Tommy Kahnle hasn’t seen any game action this spring. He has been throwing side sessions, but Yankees manager Aaron Boone indicated the team is bringing him along more deliberately after he finished the 2023 season on the IL with shoulder inflammation (relayed by Greg Joyce of the New York Post). Boone indicated that Kahnle might not get on a Grapefruit League mound until close to the end of camp. That at least raises the possibility of opening the regular season on the 15-day injured list to buy him a little more time to get to full strength. Kahnle logged 40 2/3 innings in his return to the Bronx last year, his heaviest workload since 2019. He turned in a 2.66 ERA with a strong 29.1% strikeout rate in a setup capacity.
  • Pirates closer David Bednar is battling what seems to be minor tightness in his right lat, skipper Derek Shelton said over the weekend (via MLB.com). The two-time All-Star has yet to get on the mound in exhibition play as the team keeps an eye on the situation. Bednar is a force at the back of the Pittsburgh bullpen and one of the sport’s best relievers overall. He has turned in a 2.25 ERA through 179 2/3 innings for the Bucs after his inclusion in the Joe Musgrove trade return. Bednar allowed an even two earned runs per nine over 67 1/3 frames a season ago. He paced the National League with 39 saves.
  • The A’s pulled right-hander Luis Medina in the second inning of today’s Cactus League matchup against the Reds. Oakland announced that he sprained his right knee and didn’t provide any timetable for his return. Medina, a key piece of the Frankie Montas trade return, made his MLB debut last season. He started 17 of 23 appearances as a rookie, turning in a 5.42 ERA across 109 2/3 frames. Medina is battling for the #5 spot in the rotation. Paul Blackburn, JP Sears and offseason acquisitions Ross Stripling and Alex Wood look likely to take the top four jobs. Joe Boyle would be the expected choice for the #5 spot if Medina starts the year on the injured list.

Pirates Receiving Trade Interest In Hedges, Hill, Holderman

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July 28: Catcher Austin Hedges has also drawn trade interest, Heyman tweets. While the veteran backstop provides nothing on the offensive side of the game — Hedges is a career .189/.246/.323 hitter who’s batting .181/.234/.231 this year — he’s long been regarded as a premier defender at a critical position. A club looking to add a defensive-minded backup could perhaps have interest in Hedges, who’s earning $5MM this season and still has about $1.77MM of that sum still to be paid out.

Moving Hedges makes sense for a Pirates club with two of the sport’s top catching prospects, Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez, both ready for a legitimate audition in the Majors. Both are already on the big league roster, and Davis has seen some action in right field to get his bat in the lineup. A Hedges trade would clear out more playing time for each youngster. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke with Hedges yesterday about the possibility of a trade and his shift toward a mentor role for the younger Davis  and Rodriguez. Both young backstops lauded Hedges for his eagerness to take them under his wing as they continue their development.

July 27: The Pirates have received some trade interest in starter Rich Hill and setup man Colin Holderman, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Hill, in particular, seems a good bet to move within the next few days.

Pittsburgh signed the 43-year-old southpaw to a one-year, $8MM free agent contract last offseason. Hill has continued to offer the kind of back-of-the-rotation production not far off that of his past few seasons. He owns a 4.82 ERA over 21 starts and 114 innings. His 19.1% strikeout rate is a bit below average, while he’s issuing walks at a roughly average 8.7% clip.

It’s not overwhelming production, but teams have valued Hill’s general stability at the back of a staff and veteran clubhouse presence. He’s been on six teams within the past five seasons, generally working at the end of a contending rotation.

For a while, the Bucs seemed as if they’d stick in the postseason picture. They’ve gone cold of late and fallen out of the mix, setting the stage for at least a moderate sell-off. Veteran first baseman Carlos Santana was shipped off to the Brewers this afternoon. Hill is in the same spot as an impending free agent who could have modest appeal to a contender. He’s due around $2.67MM from here forward.

The Pirates can set a loftier ask on Holderman. Acquired from the Mets for Daniel Vogelbach at last summer’s deadline, the right-hander has somewhat quietly developed into a quality reliever for the Bucs. He struggled down the stretch last summer but has solid numbers across the board this year.

Holderman, 27, owns a 3.71 ERA through 34 innings. His 23.3% strikeout rate is fairly typical, while he has above-average control and a quality 51.5% grounder percentage. He’s handling hitters from both sides of the plate, mixes three pitches and has picked up 15 holds in a leverage role for Pittsburgh.

That’s valuable production, and Holderman’s affordability only adds to the appeal. He surpassed one year of MLB service this season. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next year and is controllable through the 2028 campaign. Every contender could fit him on the books and into the middle innings, but the Bucs also have zero urgency to deal him for a suboptimal return.

Of course, the Bucs’ top potential trade candidates would be mid-rotation starter Mitch Keller and All-Star closer David Bednar. Heyman reported earlier this week the Pirates were willing to consider offers on those players. Both are under arbitration control for multiple seasons beyond this one (Keller through ’25, Bednar past ’26). The ask on each will be very high as a result, and deals seem significant long shots. Robert Murray of FanSided wrote yesterday that a Keller or Bednar trade was very unlikely, characterizing the openness to offers as standard due diligence for GM Ben Cherington and his staff.

Pirates Willing To Listen To Trade Offers On David Bednar, Mitch Keller

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4:14PM: The Pirates are also open to hearing what teams might offer for Mitch Keller, Heyman tweets, but like with Bednar, a trade doesn’t seem likely.  It would seem like Pittsburgh is taking a broad, due-diligence approach to the deadline just in case a special opportunity arises, yet moving a building-block type like Keller or Bednar would indeed require a real blockbuster of an offer.

3:25PM: The Pirates are willing to listen to trade offers on closer David Bednar, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though he adds that it will likely be difficult to get a deal together.

Bednar, 28, would undoubtedly be of interest to any club around the league, given the way he keeps taking his game to new levels. Across 2021 and 2022, he posted a 2.40 earned run average in 106 appearances, striking out 32.7% of batters faced while walking 7.8%. This year, he’s cut his walk rate to just 5.8%, helping him drop his ERA to 1.15. He earned 19 saves last year and has already matched that figure here in 2023.

On top of his obvious skills, Bednar would have plenty of appeal to MLB clubs based on his status. He came into the 2023 season with two years and 76 days of service time. That means he’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time this winter and won’t be scheduled to reach free agency until after the 2026 campaign. Just about every contending club can use a strong bullpen upgrade at this time of year, bumping every other reliever down one spot in the pecking order.

Of course, the same qualities that make Bednar attractive to the other 29 clubs also work on the Pirates. The club has faded after a hot start and is now 43-56, but they have shown enough potential this year to suggest that maybe contention isn’t too far away. Reliever performance is volatile and there is a school of thought that a club in seller position should be open to moving any member of its bullpen, which makes it fairly logical for the Bucs to listen and see what’s out there. But Bednar’s elite performance and local ties, having been born in Pittsburgh and raised nearby, suggest they will need to be blown away in order for a deal to come together.

It’s important to distinguish between a club that’s willing to listen to offers versus one that is actively shopping a player around. There’s nothing to suggest the Pirates have done the latter, so it’s possible that their open mind to incoming calls is merely due diligence. Perhaps some club makes them an offer they can’t refuse, but it seems the most likely scenario is that he stays in Pittsburgh as they take another shot at contention next year.

Although obtaining Bednar may prove difficult, teams looking for quality bullpen upgrades should have plenty of other options among the potential trade candidates this summer. Some other names that figure to be more attainable include Scott Barlow, David Robertson, Jordan Hicks and many others.

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